INTRODUCTION

The Convergence Puzzle

Katja Theodorakis, Senior Programme Coordinator Research & Analysis at the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation’s Regional Programme Australia and the Pacific

February 2020

About the Author Katja is a national security professional Future Operations Research Group and with particular expertise in the areas of ter- part of the steering committee for the ac- rorism/extremism, jihadism and the pro- companying Women in Future Operations paganda dynamics of asymmetric/hybrid (WFO) platform – multi-disciplinary initia- conflict. At KAS, she coordinates a portfolio tives dedicated to harness diverse exper- that includes topics like the wider strategic tise and innovative thinking around the relations in the Asia-Pacific, cybersecurity, core research themes of: Future Urban and European defence/security matters and Unconventional Warfare, Emerging Flash- the field of terrorism/extremism. points and Future Technologies. She is also a PhD candidate at the School Katja regularly publishes and presents at of Humanities and Social Sciences at seminars and appears on national TV and UNSW ADFA, where her research is con- radio for commentary. She is currently also cerned with insurgent ideology and pro- teaching a post-graduate course on ‘Terror- paganda narratives – in particular their ism and Propaganda in Cyberspace’ for the strategic use in information operations. Australian Graduate School of Policing and Here, she is also a founding member of the Security at Charles Sturt University.

PAGE 04 THE PERISCOPE SERIES / VOLUME III / 2020 Note: Jackson Pollock’s masterpiece Conver- institutional, cultural, ideational/ideological gence has provided the creative foundation and strategic. As such, they co-exist, compete for the overarching theme and title of this and act upon each other, forming a complex volume. Known for his eclectic painting style, ecosystem of dynamic, interlinked threat and Pollock is seen as a trailblazer for invention opportunity vectors. and free expression, admonishing us that “the Once I discovered the inscription provided by modern painter cannot express his age, the the Albright Knox Gallery, where the paint- airplane, the atom bomb, the radio, in the old ing has its home, the parallel became even forms of the Renaissance or any other past stronger: “for Pollock, the process of dripping, 1 culture. Each age finds its own technique.” pouring, and splattering provided him with a Coming across this painting by chance when combination of chance and control.” 2 thinking of a way to conceptualize cyber- The dialectic between chance and control are space, it stood out to me for its portrayal of also at play in the realm of cyberspace – how complexity - yet underpinned by a harmony we manage them is the puzzle we are asked to of sorts. This seemed a fitting frame for this solve in our own age. And, taking inspiration topic, with the dynamics of complexity ev- from Pollock once more, it requires finding ident in Convergence speaking to the com- our own technique. plexity inherent in cyberspace - a realm of converging and diverging forces and inter- ests: technological, social, political, economic,

Jackson Pollock, Convergence 1952, oil on canvas Collection Albright-Knox Art Gallery, Buffalo, New York (Gift of Seymour H. Knox, Jr., 1956) Reproduced here as part of the authorized use for educational purposes (scholarly publication) © Pollock-Krasner Foundation / Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York

INTRODUCTION / Katja Theodorakis PAGE 05 “Civil liberty functions today in a effects of increasing connectivity, empow- 5 changing technological context.” ering individuals vis-a-vis State power. Yet, the increased reach of tech-savvy dic- Ithiel de Sola Pool, tatorships, revisionist powers and violent Technologies of Freedom (1984)3 extremist groups highlighted the dangers of our age, soon giving way to fears of new Writing in 1983, well before what we now forms of oppression and violence: technol- refer to as ‘cyberspace’ was conceived as ogy becoming a handy enabler of greater such, MIT political scientist Ithiel de Sola surveillance, control, and coercion – in par- Pool mapped out the coming technolog- ticular giving asymmetric and revisionist ical landscape as one where “most pub- actors a potential advantage over estab- lished information will be disseminated lished democracies.6 electronically”, with networked computers Geopolitically, China’s One Belt One Road functioning as “the printing presses of the Initiative, especially the concept of a Digital twenty-first century”. This way, he forecast Silk Road is being recognized not only as an a convergence of once separate modes of instrument for greater connectivity but as communication - and the dangers inherent a deliberate strategy to exercise control.7 in such ‘electronic hegemony’ as he antici- Likewise, beginning with Russia’s cyber-en- pated an erosion of civil liberties and free- abled interference in the 2016 American dom through heavy-handed government presidential election, Chinese and Russian regulation.4 attempts at influencing Western politics, While Pool’s vantage point is bounded to media organizations, and certain segments some extent by its time and place – in par- of the population illustrate the prevalence ticular traditionally libertarian concerns of manipulating public opinion – increas- - his framing of the challenges of the com- ingly being considered a key national secu- ing information age is still a useful entry rity threat amongst liberal democracies.8 point to understand how the accelerating, The geostrategic threat to liberal socio-po- disruptive nature of technology and hy- litical systems in the digital age is evidenced per-connectivity is giving rise to a new set in the 5G debates playing out in Western of socio-political, economic and especially democracies. Europe is a current prime ex- strategic challenges. ample: pursuing a course of ‘strategic au- In the past infringements on citizens’ free- tonomy’,9 it seeks independence from the doms through government overreach at US-China superpower rivalry which it per- the hands of surveillance agencies such as ceives to be behind the American efforts GCHQ or NSA were the main fear. Today the to push other nations to exclude Huawei. potential for control originates from a wider For this end, the stance on Huawei becom- array of sources: fears of rival or adversarial ing visible in Germany and other European actors that control large parts of the tech- countries at the time of writing appears to nology and communications infrastructure be one of attempted ‘neutral’ positioning, now run alongside concerns about exces- manifested in a reluctance to endanger sive state power – both domestically and economic partnerships with China.10 Along globally. Initially, a diffusion of technology those lines, the great power rivalry be- and easier accessibility had given rise to tween the United States and China is often hopeful expectations of the democratizing described as a ‘new Cold War’, in terms of

PAGE 06 THE PERISCOPE SERIES / VOLUME III / 2020 Writing in 1983, well before what we now refer to as ‘cyberspace’ was conceived as such, MIT political scientist Ithiel de Sola Pool mapped out the coming technological landscape as one where “most published information will be disseminated electronically”, with networked computers functioning as “the printing presses of the twenty-first century”.

a cyber or AI ‘arms race’. Even though the with AI-enabled deep fakes and the manip- accuracy and usefulness of such histori- ulation of public opinion through the use of cal analogies are contested11, it could be computational propaganda (so-called po- argued that their frequent use points to a litical bots).12 As these quandaries bear out recognition of the fundamental nature of through governments’ relationships with these challenges: as digital technologies tech companies, they highlight the blurred provide adversaries with unprecedented boundaries that currently exist in terms of opportunities to undermine Western dem- regulation and responsibility. ocratic, social, and market institution, Here, new points of friction emerge as tech these are not only security issues, but and media companies are asked by gov- more fundamentally, debates about order ernments to monitor the content on their and global governance. platforms to impede the dissemination of These new governance challenges for extremist content or misinformation. This States are also illustrated by the Islamic move has been perceived as problematic, State’s strategic use of communication suggesting that government intelligence technologies: leveraging the opportuni- gathering is being outsourced to tech com- ties afforded by social media platforms, panies whose business model is inherently it managed to augment its reach and in- programmed for metrics-driven growth.13 cite terrorist acts against the West in a In this context, Facebook’s regulation of more dispersed manner. Likewise, the activities across its platforms along a yard- Christchurch attack has served as a much- stick of ‘truth versus falsehood’ raises needed reminder that terrorists harness- questions about how objective the very act ing technology is not just the purview of of determining what is ‘true’ can be.14 Even jihadists. It points to a bigger problem-set with a revamped algorithm and fact-check- of how cyberspace is enabling extremists ing measures designed to fight the spread of all persuasions to more easily dissemi- of fake news, critics argue that it easily nate their narratives, recruit und inspire/ enables and in fact incentivizes cognitive instruct terrorist acts. biases, especially in a contested and po- These development result in a new set of larized information environment, it is im- challenges that come with regulating the portant to factor in cognitive biases as well online environment, such as the complex- as political and economic when assess- ities of responsible encryption, how to deal ing metrics .15

INTRODUCTION / Katja Theodorakis PAGE 07 At the same time, the thesis has been put capitalism, has coined the term “Instru- forward that the only way for big tech mentarianism”, a new power constellation corporations to continue dominating the of the digital revolution. This “new frontier market is by allowing a certain extent of of power” is said to result from the ability to government regulation, resulting in what commodify human experience into ‘behav- some analysts imagine as a sort of ‘power ioral data’, by means of analysing and mea- sharing agreement’.16 suring online human activity – with the end 20 What these and similar arguments reveal goal of manipulating and monetizing it. are the blurred lines between the power Appreciating these complexities accentu- of corporations, machines and the state, ates what lies center of this shift: the tricky which have led to questions of where issue of in whose hands the responsibility power and the ability to control truly lie of ensuring the balance between privacy, and what we, as citizens can do about it. free speech, ‘establishing truth’ and na- As highlighted by the debate about the va- tional security ultimately ends up – and if lidity of Cold War analogies, it has become the result is a world we want to live in, a almost a cliché these days to argue that world that still reflects its founding values. power politics take on a new form. Yet, the Seeking to avoid technological determin- argument is useful one to examine in this ism, answering the question of ‘who is in context. Power politics are seen as hav- control’ needs to go beyond focusing on ing moved away from their traditionally the power of corporations or how authori- narrow containment lines of State sover- tarian regimes appropriate new technolog- eignty and increasingly playing out on an ical advances for their own ends: it should expanded playground that is character- also entail an inquiry into the fundamental ized by decentralized, shifting system of societal and political dynamics and struc- networks. This idea was for example ex- tures that enable such abuses – with an pressed by Anne-Marie Slaughter in her eye on our own societies and technology‘s The Chessboard and the Web: Strategies of potential to weaken democracies if left un- Connection in a Networked World, where governed and driven by market principles. she argued that “states still exist and ex- This is based on the recognition that in a ercise power, but side by side with corpo- hyper-connected and highly networked rate, civic, and criminal actors enmeshed in world, technology enables individuals, civil a web of networks.” 17 Such developments society, non-state actors and institutions point to an increasingly symbiotic rela- to impact on social and political agendas tionship between States’ digital powers/ more than ever before.21 As noted in a re- measures and corporate data collection, cent report, “across social media, people giving rise to debates about who is in con- participate in the creation and spread of trol in an era where data apparently reigns information, misinformation, and disinfor- supreme - what some have called a ‘dicta- mation. Society is not shielded from geo- torship of data’18 or, more specifically in re- politics here. Rather society is, wittingly or gards to governments wanting to protect unwittingly, a participant.”22 Consequently, and control their information-related com- human action is at the core of the informa- panies and infrastructure, ‘data mercantil- tion age still - enabled by technology but ism’.19 Similarly, Shoshana Zuboff, warning not determined by it. of the effects of what she calls surveillance

PAGE 08 THE PERISCOPE SERIES / VOLUME III / 2020 This means more technology alone can understanding the discursive construction also not be the answer to help us overcome of today’s information age. Ellul’s analysis of the challenges resulting from this shift. the forces driving liberal technological soci- Metrics are still driven by human biases. eties reveals that democracy itself, meant And, in looking for a solution, common de- as the prime vehicle for the free exchange scriptors such as ‘fake news contagion’ are of opinion and ideas, can became an empty often not helpful when they remain ill-de- myth when allowed to be driven by techno- fined; equally, recourse to a ‘post-truth’ era cratic and commercial imperatives.26 gives the impression little can be done to This is not always recognized– and when contain the spread of falsehoods or even it is, the overly normative, even ideologi- establish, through critical inquiry, what is cal character of the debate often obscures true and false. the real complexity of the interconnected Assessing the security landscape is there- dynamics between security matters and fore not just a matter of simple fact-check- values or ethics. One illustration for this is ing and metrics: how we scale risks and how the decline/erosion of Western domi- security threats is ultimately a function nance has become a frequent talking point of how we perceive the world and think it – evident for instance in the Munich Se- should be ordered. The evolution of any curity Conference’s engagement with the system in society demonstrates this: be concept of “Westlessness”.27 While seeking they military, information, political, con- to diagnose the challenges of our time, this trol, economic and cultural, systems are is a problematic lens on several levels: the driven not by strategic thinking alone but principal issue being its reification of ‘the also firmly rooted in beliefs systems and West’ as the original and exclusive home values.23 This makes the above questions of progressive values, especially when pre- not only deeply political and strategic ones sented in triumphalist tones.28 24 but inadvertently also about ethics. What Nevertheless, it highlights an important has been termed by some as a new para- element of the global political landscape: digm of ‘society-centric warfare’ is useful transcending immediate security con- for conceptualizing this: a conflict’s centers cerns, debates have been elevated to a of gravity as well as the end goals of oper- more existential level where the future of ational and technical forces are ultimately our order is framed and questioned in ide- rooted in society, making factors such as ational terms. As global power shifts have identity, perceptions, emotions and moti- given rise to competing models of gover- 25 vations or beliefs paramount. nance/political order and the way data is Accordingly, recognizing that society and governed impacts on our collective and in- individuals have an unprecedent role in dividual freedom, these questions do need an evolving global system of knowledge, to be asked and pursued. But especially in power and authority is one thing. What’s an era of democratic disenchantment, it more important is to acknowledge that may be more useful to address them with the matter is situated in an ideational/ more humility and less self-assuredness as ethical sphere rather than being a mere we reflect on how its key tenets so they can outgrowth of instrumental rationality. Ap- carry us into the future. The Director of Mil- plying the conceptual lens of French sociol- itary Sciences of the Royal United Sciences ogist Jacques Ellul can be instructive for Institute for instance also noted “a belief in

INTRODUCTION / Katja Theodorakis PAGE 09 Western conceptual or intellectual supe- Everyone will get what he wants, and riority remains deeply entrenched in the the public — and its trust in truth — will Western orthodoxy; such hubris has dis- fall apart … 29 tinct dangers.” … finding our way back to the notion of truth Recourses to the shared foundation of as the result of a public process of search Western values, reiterating their superior- and debate and deliberation will not be ity are therefore not enough to tackle the easy…above all, it will require a renewed complex problems of our time. For one, commitment to truth’s complexity and the maintaining the openness and trust that processes by which one searches for it.”30 should be the social fabric of our society What makes this complexity emanating and protecting it from compromise is not from the converge of forces a puzzle rather an outside problem. Consequently, lament- than just a tangle of non-linear causes and ing “Westlessness” and issuing moralistic effects is therefore the end goal: working calls for restoring Western dominance do out and managing the relationship be- little to alleviate the problem. What these tween these forces in a way that aligns with dilemmas and complex problem-sets can the bigger picture; ultimately, it is about alert us to, however, is the importance of making them converge in a manner that how we conceptualize and address such strengthens rather than undermines the prickly challenges of sovereignty, govern- foundations of liberal orders – both do- mental/institutional overreach, transpar- mestically and at the multilateral level. This ency and accountability for ourselves. is tricky. To return to the starting premise, complex- Consequently, the convergence puzzle ity is inherent in not only the technical and seeks to serve as a reminder of where the logical layers that make up cyberspace, centre of gravity should lie in debates on but also in how ‘cyber’ is embedded in cybersecurity: in a commitment to the core the socio-political, cultural and geostra- of the liberal project as its best defence 30 tegic structures. Hence, recognizing this mechanism. The challenge is finding out complexity as emanating from the inter- what this means practically, step by step connectedness of dynamically driven ele- and for each problem that presents itself. ments within this human-centric space or system, means that responsive policy can only be made by grappling with social and ethical complexity, rather than wanting to reduce it. In an essay titled “When Truth Be- comes a Commodity”, Daniel Rogers high- lights a process that pinpoints the core of this challenge “As long as we can click on the truths we want, as long as truth is imagined as a desire satisfied in a politically and commercially saturated market, we will have a superabun- dance of facts that people hold as true.

PAGE 10 THE PERISCOPE SERIES / VOLUME III / 2020 Endnotes

1 As quoted in the Albright-Knox Collection, 10 https://www.ifri.org/sites/default/files/atoms/ https://www.albrightknox.org/artworks/ files/etnc_report_us-china-europe_janu- k19567-convergence ary_2020_complete.pdf 2 Ibid 11 https://tnsr.org/roundtable/policy-roundtable- 3 Ithiel de Sola Pool, Technologies of Freedom are-the-united-states-and-china-in-a-new-cold- (Harvard: Harvard University Press, 1984). war/#_ftn5 4 Robert Huckfield, “The 2016 Ithiel de Sola Pool 12 See for example Samantha Bradshaw and Philip Lecture: Interdependence, Communication, N Howard, “The Global Disinformation Order: and Aggregation: Transforming Voters into Elec- 2019 Global Inventory of Organised Social torates”, P.S: Politics and Science, Vol.50, No.1, Media Manipulation”, Computational Propa- January 2017, pp. 3-11. ganda Research Project, University of Oxford, https://comprop.oii.ox.ac.uk/wp-content/up- 5 Lucas Kello, The Virtual Weapon and Interna- loads/sites/93/2019/09/CyberTroop-Report19. tional Order (Oxford: Oxford University Press pdf; or https://www.brookings.edu/blog/ 201, pp. 162-4). order-from-chaos/2018/05/25/the-west-is-ill- 6 See for example https://www.theatlantic.com/ prepared-for-the-wave-of-deep-fakes-that-arti- magazine/archive/2018/10/yuval-noah-hara- ficial-intelligence-could-unleash/; https://www. ri-technology-tyranny/568330/; https://www. theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/01/ foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-02-06/ future-politics-bots-drowning-out-hu- digital-dictators; Cathy Downes, “Strategic mans/604489/ Blind–Spots on Cyber Threats, Vectors and 13 David Lyon, The Culture of Surveillance: Watch- Campaigns.” The Cyber Defense Review 3, no. 1 ing as a Way of Life (London: Polity Press, 2018); (2018): 79-104; www.jstor.org/stable/26427378 14 This is especially the case when the search is 7 Nadège Rolland, China’s Eurasian Century? one for direct causations between what hap- Political and Strategic Implications of the Belt pens on social media platforms and individual and Road Initiative, National Bureau of Asian actions – which cannot be easily measured - Research, May 2017, http://www.nbr.org/pub- rather than inquiries into the wider strategic lications/issue.aspx?id=346; or more recently: consequences and shifts in the information https://www.economist.com/special-re- ecology, see for example https://nymag.com/ port/2020/02/06/the-digital-side-of-the-belt- intelligencer/2018/12/how-much-of-the-inter- and-road-initiative-is-growing; net-is-fake.html; Alicia Wanless et al., “How Do 8 Aaron Friedberg, The Authoritarian Challenge: You Define a Problem Like Influence?, Journal China, Russia and the Threat to the Interna- of Information Warfare (2019) 18.3: 1-14; or tional Liberal Order (Tokyo: Sasakawa Peace https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/12/did- Foundation, 2017), https://www.spf.org/jpus-j/ facebook-cause-the-yellow-vest-riots-in-france. img/investigation/The_Authoritarian_Chal- html lenge.pdf; Christopher Walker and Jessica 15 https://www.niemanlab.org/2019/03/ Ludwig, “From Soft Power to Sharp Power: one-year-in-facebooks-big-algorithm- Rising Authoritarian Influence in a Democratic change-has-spurred-an-angry-fox-news- World” in Sharp Power: Rising Authoritarian In- dominated-and-very-engaged-news-feed/; fluence (Washington, DC: National Endowment https://www.chronicle.com/article/ for Democracy, 2017), https://www.ned.org/ How-Facebook-Stymies-Social/242090 sharp-power-rising-authoritarian-influence-fo- rum-report/. 16 https://www.bloomberg.com/ opinion/articles/2019-03-13/ 9 Ulrike Franke and Tara Varma, “Independence what-if-google-and-the-government-merged Play: Europe’s Pursuit of Strategic Autonomy”, European Council on Foreign Relations, July 17 Anne-Marie Slaughter, The Chessboard and the 2019: https://www.ecfr.eu/specials/scorecard/ Web: Strategies of Connection in a Networked independence_play_europes_pursuit_of_stra- World (New Haven: Yale University Press, 2017). tegic_autonomy

INTRODUCTION / Katja Theodorakis PAGE 11 18 https://www.npr.org/sec- 26 See for example Karim H Karim, “Cyber-Utopia tions/13.7/2018/02/28/589477976/biomet- and the Myth of Paradise: Using Jacques Ellul’s ric-data-and-the-rise-of-digital-dictatorship; Work on Propaganda to Analyze Information https://www.brookings.edu/policy2020/ Society Rhetoric”, Information, Communication bigideas/placing-a-visible-hand-on-the-digi- and Society, 4:1 (2001), pp. 113-134 tal-revolution/ 27 https://securityconference.org/en/publications/ 19 Eric Rosenbach and Katherin Mansted, “Geopol- munich-security-report-2020/ itics of Information”, Belfer Center for Science 28 US Secretary of State Pompeo’s pompous ‘The and International Affairs, Harvard Kennedy West is Winning’ speech being a case in point School, May 28 2019; https://www.belfercenter. https://www.voanews.com/europe/ org/publication/geopolitics-information west-winning-pompeo-tells-china-russia 20 Shoshana Zuboff, The Age of Surveillance Cap- 29 Peter Roberts, “Designing Conceptual Failure in italism. The Fight for a Human Future at the Warfare”, The RUSI Journal, 162:1(2017), 14-23, New Frontier of Power (New York: Public Affairs, DOI: 10.1080/03071847.2017.130151 2019). 30 https://www.chronicle.com/article/ 21 Thomas Rid and Marc Hecker (2009), War 2.0: When-Truth-Becomes-a-Commodi- Irregular Warfare in the Information Age. ty/238866?cid=RCPACKAGE Westport: Praeger Security International; Ofer Fridman, Vitaly Kabernik and James C. Pearce (eds.) (2018), Hybrid Conflicts and Information Warfare: New Labels, Old Politics. Boulder and London: Lynne Rienner. 22 https://www.lowyinstitute.org/the-interpreter/ muddled-message-makes-harder-australias- friends-trust-us 23 Cecilia Andrews & Edward Lewis (2006), “Simu- lating Complexity-Based Ethics for Crucial Deci- sion-Making in Counter Terrorism” in H Nemati (ed.) Information Security and Ethics: Concepts, Methodologies, Tools and Applications, p. 3250. Hershey, PA: Information Science Reference (an Imprint of IGI Global) 24 See Luciano Floridi, The Fourth Revolution: How the Infosphere is Reshaping Human Reality (Ox- ford: Oxford University Press, 2014) 25 Emile Simpson, War from the Ground Up: Twenty-First-Century Combat as Politics (New York: Oxford University Press, 2013); Ariel E. Levite and Jonathan (Yoni) Shimshoni, “The Strategic Challenge of Society-centric Warfare”, Survival, 60:6 (2018), 91-118 DOI: 10.1080/00396338.2018.1542806 ; Rupert Smith, The Utility of Force: The Art of War in the Modern World (New York: Alfred A. Knopf, 2005); Scales, R. (2006, July). Clause- witz and World War IV. Armed Forces Journal, 16–24, 48.

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Editor Katja Theodorakis

Publisher Konrad Adenauer Stiftung (Australia) Limited Regional Programme Australia and the Pacific 11/3 Sydney Avenue Barton, ACT 2600 Australia Tel: +61 2 6154 9322 www.kas.de/australia

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