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The Convergence Puzzle

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The Convergence Puzzle INTRODUCTION The Convergence Puzzle Katja Theodorakis, Senior Programme Coordinator Research & Analysis at the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation’s Regional Programme Australia and the Pacific February 2020 About the Author Katja is a national security professional Future Operations Research Group and with particular expertise in the areas of ter- part of the steering committee for the ac- rorism/extremism, jihadism and the pro- companying Women in Future Operations paganda dynamics of asymmetric/hybrid (WFO) platform – multi-disciplinary initia- conflict. At KAS, she coordinates a portfolio tives dedicated to harness diverse exper- that includes topics like the wider strategic tise and innovative thinking around the relations in the Asia-Pacific, cybersecurity, core research themes of: Future Urban and European defence/security matters and Unconventional Warfare, Emerging Flash- the field of terrorism/extremism. points and Future Technologies. She is also a PhD candidate at the School Katja regularly publishes and presents at of Humanities and Social Sciences at seminars and appears on national TV and UNSW ADFA, where her research is con- radio for commentary. She is currently also cerned with insurgent ideology and pro- teaching a post-graduate course on ‘Terror- paganda narratives – in particular their ism and Propaganda in Cyberspace’ for the strategic use in information operations. Australian Graduate School of Policing and Here, she is also a founding member of the Security at Charles Sturt University. PAGE 04 THE PERISCOPE SERIES / VOLUME III / 2020 Note: Jackson Pollock’s masterpiece Conver- institutional, cultural, ideational/ideological gence has provided the creative foundation and strategic. As such, they co-exist, compete for the overarching theme and title of this and act upon each other, forming a complex volume. Known for his eclectic painting style, ecosystem of dynamic, interlinked threat and Pollock is seen as a trailblazer for invention opportunity vectors. and free expression, admonishing us that “the Once I discovered the inscription provided by modern painter cannot express his age, the the Albright Knox Gallery, where the paint- airplane, the atom bomb, the radio, in the old ing has its home, the parallel became even forms of the Renaissance or any other past stronger: “for Pollock, the process of dripping, 1 culture. Each age finds its own technique.” pouring, and splattering provided him with a Coming across this painting by chance when combination of chance and control.” 2 thinking of a way to conceptualize cyber- The dialectic between chance and control are space, it stood out to me for its portrayal of also at play in the realm of cyberspace – how complexity - yet underpinned by a harmony we manage them is the puzzle we are asked to of sorts. This seemed a fitting frame for this solve in our own age. And, taking inspiration topic, with the dynamics of complexity ev- from Pollock once more, it requires finding ident in Convergence speaking to the com- our own technique. plexity inherent in cyberspace - a realm of converging and diverging forces and inter- ests: technological, social, political, economic, Jackson Pollock, Convergence 1952, oil on canvas Collection Albright-Knox Art Gallery, Buffalo, New York (Gift of Seymour H. Knox, Jr., 1956) Reproduced here as part of the authorized use for educational purposes (scholarly publication) © Pollock-Krasner Foundation / Artists Rights Society (ARS), New York INTRODUCTION / KatJA Theodorakis PAGE 05 “Civil liberty functions today in a effects of increasing connectivity, empow- 5 changing technological context.” ering individuals vis-a-vis State power. Yet, the increased reach of tech-savvy dic- Ithiel de Sola Pool, tatorships, revisionist powers and violent Technologies of Freedom (1984)3 extremist groups highlighted the dangers of our age, soon giving way to fears of new Writing in 1983, well before what we now forms of oppression and violence: technol- refer to as ‘cyberspace’ was conceived as ogy becoming a handy enabler of greater such, MIT political scientist Ithiel de Sola surveillance, control, and coercion – in par- Pool mapped out the coming technolog- ticular giving asymmetric and revisionist ical landscape as one where “most pub- actors a potential advantage over estab- lished information will be disseminated lished democracies.6 electronically”, with networked computers Geopolitically, China’s One Belt One Road functioning as “the printing presses of the Initiative, especially the concept of a Digital twenty-first century”. This way, he forecast Silk Road is being recognized not only as an a convergence of once separate modes of instrument for greater connectivity but as communication - and the dangers inherent a deliberate strategy to exercise control.7 in such ‘electronic hegemony’ as he antici- Likewise, beginning with Russia’s cyber-en- pated an erosion of civil liberties and free- abled interference in the 2016 American dom through heavy-handed government presidential election, Chinese and Russian regulation.4 attempts at influencing Western politics, While Pool’s vantage point is bounded to media organizations, and certain segments some extent by its time and place – in par- of the population illustrate the prevalence ticular traditionally libertarian concerns of manipulating public opinion – increas- - his framing of the challenges of the com- ingly being considered a key national secu- ing information age is still a useful entry rity threat amongst liberal democracies.8 point to understand how the accelerating, The geostrategic threat to liberal socio-po- disruptive nature of technology and hy- litical systems in the digital age is evidenced per-connectivity is giving rise to a new set in the 5G debates playing out in Western of socio-political, economic and especially democracies. Europe is a current prime ex- strategic challenges. ample: pursuing a course of ‘strategic au- In the past infringements on citizens’ free- tonomy’,9 it seeks independence from the doms through government overreach at US-China superpower rivalry which it per- the hands of surveillance agencies such as ceives to be behind the American efforts GCHQ or NSA were the main fear. Today the to push other nations to exclude Huawei. potential for control originates from a wider For this end, the stance on Huawei becom- array of sources: fears of rival or adversarial ing visible in Germany and other European actors that control large parts of the tech- countries at the time of writing appears to nology and communications infrastructure be one of attempted ‘neutral’ positioning, now run alongside concerns about exces- manifested in a reluctance to endanger sive state power – both domestically and economic partnerships with China.10 Along globally. Initially, a diffusion of technology those lines, the great power rivalry be- and easier accessibility had given rise to tween the United States and China is often hopeful expectations of the democratizing described as a ‘new Cold War’, in terms of PAGE 06 THE PERISCOPE SERIES / VOLUME III / 2020 Writing in 1983, well before what we now refer to as ‘cyberspace’ was conceived as such, MIT political scientist Ithiel de Sola Pool mapped out the coming technological landscape as one where “most published information will be disseminated electronically”, with networked computers functioning as “the printing presses of the twenty-first century”. a cyber or AI ‘arms race’. Even though the with AI-enabled deep fakes and the manip- accuracy and usefulness of such histori- ulation of public opinion through the use of cal analogies are contested11, it could be computational propaganda (so-called po- argued that their frequent use points to a litical bots).12 As these quandaries bear out recognition of the fundamental nature of through governments’ relationships with these challenges: as digital technologies tech companies, they highlight the blurred provide adversaries with unprecedented boundaries that currently exist in terms of opportunities to undermine Western dem- regulation and responsibility. ocratic, social, and market institution, Here, new points of friction emerge as tech these are not only security issues, but and media companies are asked by gov- more fundamentally, debates about order ernments to monitor the content on their and global governance. platforms to impede the dissemination of These new governance challenges for extremist content or misinformation. This States are also illustrated by the Islamic move has been perceived as problematic, State’s strategic use of communication suggesting that government intelligence technologies: leveraging the opportuni- gathering is being outsourced to tech com- ties afforded by social media platforms, panies whose business model is inherently it managed to augment its reach and in- programmed for metrics-driven growth.13 cite terrorist acts against the West in a In this context, Facebook’s regulation of more dispersed manner. Likewise, the activities across its platforms along a yard- Christchurch attack has served as a much- stick of ‘truth versus falsehood’ raises needed reminder that terrorists harness- questions about how objective the very act ing technology is not just the purview of of determining what is ‘true’ can be.14 Even jihadists. It points to a bigger problem-set with a revamped algorithm and fact-check- of how cyberspace is enabling extremists ing measures designed to fight the spread of all persuasions to more easily dissemi- of fake news, critics argue that
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