Yes. Should We Fix the Weather? Hmmm : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR

Will We 'Fix' The Weather? Yes. Should We Fix The Weather? Hmmm : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR

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ROBERT KRULWICH ON SCIENCE

Will We 'Fix' The Weather? Yes. Should We Fix The Weather? Hmmm by ROBERT KRULWICH

October 30, 2012 2:13 PM

Because I'm at home, wind raging outside, trees bending, leaves flying, a hurricane descending, subways suspended, my day upended, I can't stop thinking: "What is Maureen Raymo thinking?"

She teaches at Columbia University, up the block from where I live. She's a paleoclimatologist. Her focus is climate change, and in a book I am reading, she says someday soon we won't be climate victims, we will be climate choosers. We will engineer the climate we want.

"My feeling," she tells author (and NPR commentator) Craig Childs,

s "is that there is never going to be another ice age as long as there are humans on the planet."

http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2012/10/30/163964979/will-we-fix-the-weather-yes-should-we-fix-the-weather-hmmm[11/14/2012 3:19:19 PM] Will We 'Fix' The Weather? Yes. Should We Fix The Weather? Hmmm : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR

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No more ice ages. The Earth will, of course, keep moving nearer and farther from the sun, our planet will keep wobbling on its axis, and there will be times when the Earth wants to be cold and icy and other times when it wants to be warm and green, but by the end of this century, she says, we will know how to keep glaciers where we like them, on mountain tops, at the poles, not down in the valleys, in the forests, where we live.

We won't need an Einstein or a Newton to do this. "To me it just seems like the inevitable outcome of the rise of higher beings [meaning humans with engineering degrees] that can control their destiny." And since next ice age isn't due for another thousand years or more, Raymo figures these same engineers will also take a shot at our global warming problem:

"Right now we are actively changing the climate in a very uncontrolled way, but I'm fairly certain that by the end of this century we'll have developed the technology to titrate the climate, to basically control the level of CO2 in the atmosphere. We'd have a thermostat."

Well, that's good news, no? After all, who wants their home washed

away by a swollen ocean or mowed down by a glacier? Not me. Not you. So of course we should try to protect ourselves, and an engineered solution seems targeted, efficient, sensible. If we can pull it off. Why not?

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Well, here's something to think about. About five years ago, Jason Box, a glaciologist from Ohio State University flew 31 giant rolls of white plastic to a glacier in Greenland. That glacier was melting at an accelerating rate and he wondered if putting a plastic blanket on top would reduce the melt.

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He and his team spread long rolls of white plastic across 10,000 feet of ice, then left for a while. His notion was that the white blanket would reflect back the rays of the sun, deflecting warmth, keeping the ice cool below. When he came back to check the results, here, in this video, you can see what he found...

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It worked. Exposed ice had melted faster than covered ice. He had not only saved two feet of glacier in a short time, he'd shown it's possible to keep glaciers intact longer. Plus the fix was technological; no coal plants were shut down. Nobody was taxed, fired, or regulated. Ice was saved, no jobs lost. Just the sort of fix we're looking for.

"Thank you, but no thank you," says Konrad Steffen.

Konrad Steffen, one of the world's most prominent climate scientists, was not impressed. He told Craig that people think technology can save the planet, "but there are other things we need to deal with, like consumption. They burned $50,000 just for the helicopter" — the one that brought the plastic to the glacier. This experiment, said another scientist, Jose Rial, gives people false hope that climate change can be fixed without changing human behavior. It can't. A better solution, he says, is to "increase the efficiency of automobiles." Geoengineers shouldn't be the ones who clean up human messes, and there's no guarantee geoengineers http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2012/10/30/163964979/will-we-fix-the-weather-yes-should-we-fix-the-weather-hmmm[11/14/2012 3:19:19 PM] Will We 'Fix' The Weather? Yes. Should We Fix The Weather? Hmmm : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR

won't make mistakes too. Technology won't give us a free ride.

But in the long run, geoengineering — tinkering with air, oceans, the skies — will help us survive on a changing planet. Maureen Raymo is hardly alone in her prediction. More and more eminent scientists agree with her, that if the human race survives, the engineers will get smarter, the tools will get better, and one day we will control the climate. But what then?

"Just the mention of us controlling the climate, not blindly poking at it as we are now, but manually steering it, sent a small shiver down my back," Craig writes. "What does it mean to manufacture a planet to our liking, assuming we earned the skill to do so? Something sounded wrong about stopping ice ages by our own will," he says.

Me? I'm with Craig on this. I like it better when the Earth takes care of itself, and I'm just a passenger. I like thinking that I'm cargo on a self-regulating blue ball that knows how it ticks, and takes care of its own. I guess one day we will have to run the place, but for the moment, sitting at my desk, looking out at the trees bending wildly, the wind howling, beautiful chaos everywhere, I'm happy not to be in charge. When you write the script, you aren't innocent any more. You know too much.

For a little while longer, I like knowing less.

Craig Childs' new book is called Apocalyptic Planet: Field Guide To The Everending Earth. In it, Craig goes to places that are melting, moving, submerging, freezing, falling apart, losing species, gaining more of us. It's quite a trip. For part of it, he brings his mom. She's amazing.

older newer Celebrating Autumn When A Whale Goes All Year Round ... By Trick Or Treating, Becoming A Leaf What Does It Wear?

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A Randall-Packer • 15 days ago Seeing how well humans have managed the earth so far, I'm glad that I won't be around when "climate engineering" happens.

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Muirae Kenney • 15 days ago Please. Thirty percent of Americans still don't believe global warming is even a real phenomenon. Let's learn to crawl before we think about flying.

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Mark Fraser > Muirae Kenney • 15 days ago CO2 is not the earth's thermostat. Period.

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jm walsh > Muirae Kenney • 15 days ago Its real, but not catastrophic....

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R...

The relationship between carbon dioxide and radiative forcing is logarithmic, and thus increased concentrations have a

progressively smaller warming effect.

The same logarithmic formula applies for other greenhouse

gases such as methane, N2O or CFCs, with coefficients that can be found e.g. in the IPCC reports.[7]

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Phil Jones > Muirae Kenney • 14 days ago When lousy science is involved, let's learn to crawl before we think about flying:

http://climateaudit.org/2012/1... http://wattsupwiththat.com/201...

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Bob H > Phil Jones • 14 days ago When scientific literacy is involved, you need to demonstrate the ability to crawl before you can make a plausible claim of flying.

I'm still waiting for that demonstration...

...and likewise those legendary Watts papers...

...and that alternative theory.

Haven't you had enough time to address all these issues?

Maybe time isn't the problem.

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Linus Scot • 15 days ago This article should tell us about how civilized we really are.

https://www.msu.edu/~jdowell/m...

And personally for me, when will we learn technological "solutions" only become another problem in the future. I'm all for science, don't get me wrong, but perhaps we learn a little humility about our limitations.

We saw a problem with paper grocery bags killing trees. We saw the simple and cost effective solution of plastic bags. Whoops. I think most environmentalists who once tried to save the trees humbly acknowledge their mistake. We try out best and sometimes we're

right (like changing pesticides that almost killed off the bird population), but sometimes we're wrong. Humility, not pride.

Take again, we have an excess of rubber from old tires. We thought recycle it, make soft playgrounds, all year tracks, and non-grass football fields. Well, the injuries got worse and the decomp gave off toxic gasses. Once again, it was a great idea at the time, but we later learned we were wrong.

I think we should learn from these mistakes that sometimes we do err. We are not omniscient. Try to control the weather and in 15, 30, or 100 years what will be the consequences. Perhaps we ought to better try and study and learn more, and change our behavior instead of technologically enable more bad behavior.

"Science" means knowledge. "Alchemy" is the attempt to tamper with something to make it something else. Let's put more resources to learning more. And no I don't advocate against more technology as that is good too, but let's be prudent inventors with the knowledge we've gained, not proud alchemists.

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J H > Linus Scot • 15 days ago If there's a problem with plastic bags, it’s that most people are too lazy to recycle them. They're far more useful than paper, and they save forests to boot.

Few environmentalists have the insight to recognize a mistake after it happens, let alone see one coming.

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Linus Scot > J H • 14 days ago You don't know much about recycling plastic bags do you? They don't do it often b/c it's completely not cost effective. It's like 4 or 5 times the cost to produce bags from recycling other bags than to use virgin plastic.

However, why use paper? Why not bring your own bags?

And actually many environmentalists recognize their mistakes and they change the campaigns they work on from those mistakes.

• Share › http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2012/10/30/163964979/will-we-fix-the-weather-yes-should-we-fix-the-weather-hmmm[11/14/2012 3:19:19 PM] Will We 'Fix' The Weather? Yes. Should We Fix The Weather? Hmmm : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR

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Classical Lib > Linus Scot • 14 days ago I don't understand the problem with paper bags. Trees are a renewable resource and if they are cost effective, why not take sections of land and treat them like tree farms, planting and harvesting.

The key is to preserve an appropriate amount of the wilds but once we have done so, I love things made out of real wood. Plant them, grow them, and make them into durable desks.

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SombraAla > Classical Lib • 13 days ago As long as we make a distinction between sustainable and unsustainable wood products, I'm totally with you, though I would say that it is better for one to reuse the paper bags as many times as feasible - we've used some bags upwards to probably 10 times and recycled it after that. It is interesting when the clerks notice that the bags came from a rival store...

I think the key is to treat wood as a sustainable and replenishable resource... similar to other crops in that we have to make sure to grow new ones after we harvest the mature ones. For too long we had simply looked at trees more like gold or coal - just find it and take it and then forget about what you leave behind.

But yes, real wood (not MDF or whatnot, though it has its uses) is awesome. Lasts forever, if you take care of it, and looks great too.

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Classical Lib > SombraAla • 13 days ago See...... we can find things to agree on!

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SombraAla > Classical Lib • 12 days ago Oh, I probably agree with you on more than you realize, just that I don't generally find responding to agree with someone nearly as interesting.

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Michael Muransky > Classical Lib • 6 days ago We do have sections of land that are treated like tree farms for planting and harvesting. They are called National Forests. The difference between National Parks and National Forests is the "preservation of the appropriate amount of wilds" that you are talking about. But there are all sorts of red flags brought up here. What is preservation? Is it doing something like building a park with roads and exhibits and infrastructure, or completely leaving it alone? What is the appropriate amount of wilds? For that matter what are wilds? What do we mean by wilderness? If you investigate the answers to these questions you will find that is far more complicated than simply setting land aside. I completely appreciate your comment on paper, just offering some food for thought.

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Brian Ferwerda • 15 days ago The last paragraph of this article espouses a view of the Earth as a benevolent force protecting the life that resides on it. Unfortunately, our geologic past is riddled with instances where our own planet aided in the elimination of nearly all life on its surface. The Earth doesn't care if we are here. Only we do.

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jm walsh • 15 days ago

Just think of all the damage that will be done if MAN learns to control the weather.

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SEBI phase2 • 15 days ago we are not H. sapiens yet. we behave more like talking chimps than the superior bestriding intelligent species we think we are. there are still men with guns in jungles and mountains, there are still men with sticks beating peaceful protesting crowds. we are still greedy and scared stiff of imaginary boogie men created to spook us. we still have babies irresponsibly then don't take care of them. the education system in the US fails our youngun's badly. we make video games that make violent recluses out of adolescents (and some who don't outgrow adolescence). There is more, much more lunacy we geoengineer wannabes think, speak, do everyday. we are not yet worthy of wielding such power. I know, let's begin to think transition to a sustainable world society. that's a toughy.

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Ben Gleck • 15 days ago Geoengineering sounds like a great way to rake in a fat check from the taxpayers. Time to put together a plan and hire some lobbyists!

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Bob Potter > Ben Gleck • 15 days ago Selling fossil carbon sounds like a great way to rake in a fat check from the consumers. Time to put together a plan and hire some lobbyists!

Oh, wait, already happening.

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Mark Fraser > Bob Potter • 15 days ago So don't buy it.

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Bob Potter > Mark Fraser • 15 days ago You'll delete that comment as soon as you think about it for a moment.

I have a hard time taking conservatives seriously.

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Mark Fraser > Bob Potter • 15 days ago If you dislike a supplier and hate their politics then boycott them. If you won't even do that then quit complaining that they are "taking" your money.

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Bob Potter > Mark Fraser • 14 days ago I dislike the supplier of the pollution. I propose boycotting their pollution by making them clean up their own mess. You know, the fair way to do it.

But of course your GOP overlords want you to let them keep forcing everybody else to live in their filth. And for some reason you happily go along with that.

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Mark Fraser > Bob Potter • 14 days ago Bob, turn off your computer if you are serious about pollution from energy companies. That is how you make change. Just telling everyone else what they need to do is how 5 year olds talk. Do or do not.

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Bob Potter > Mark Fraser • 14 days ago Yeah, I'm sure you don't tell anybody what to do. Because I've never read any of your comments before.

I have a hard time taking conservatives seriously.

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Mark Fraser > Bob Potter • 14 days ago I tell people if they believe in something, they should do it. That should be acceptable by all, especially liberal thinkers...

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dog tired • 15 days ago No, leave it alone! Who gets to decide who messes and how? Messing with the weather has international reprecussions. Would we be willing to accept China messing with the weather in ways that would benefit China but subject the west coast of the US to either flood or drought? Not messing with the weather could benefit some regions/people. Radical global warming for example could lead to Salmon fishing in the Artic Ocean, Avacados in Washington State, Cattle Grazing in the Yukon, Apples in Greenland. Mess with the weather and you could be denying some groups a natural benefit. Bad, bad, bad idea. LEAVE IT ALONE!!!

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Bob Potter > dog tired • 15 days ago How are we going to leave it alone? How are you going to talk China out of burning coal?

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Mark Fraser > Bob Potter • 15 days ago http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2012/10/30/163964979/will-we-fix-the-weather-yes-should-we-fix-the-weather-hmmm[11/14/2012 3:19:19 PM] Will We 'Fix' The Weather? Yes. Should We Fix The Weather? Hmmm : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR

You're actually onto something. It's "world oil" and if we use less then emerging powers use more at cheaper rates.

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Bob Potter > Mark Fraser • 15 days ago So? How are you going to leave the climate alone?

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Mark Fraser > Bob Potter • 15 days ago Leaving it alone is easy. Intentional tampering requires the research, testing, verification, and cost/benefit analysis to be done. It's not been done so intentional tampering is dangerous at best.

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TOM WILLIAMS > Bob Potter • 15 days ago China won't stop burning coal, because the Chinese aren't stupid. They're perfectly willing to allow the rest of the world to hamstring THEIR economies and industrial strength; they'll even pay lip service to it. But they've been around too long to fall for the U.N.'s propaganda. China has seen virtually every other nation on earth come and go and they're still here. It didn't happen that way because they were naive.

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Bob Potter > TOM WILLIAMS • 14 days ago So you're saying the great nation of China shares your particular misunderstanding of science?

2 △ 2 ▽ • Share › http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2012/10/30/163964979/will-we-fix-the-weather-yes-should-we-fix-the-weather-hmmm[11/14/2012 3:19:19 PM] Will We 'Fix' The Weather? Yes. Should We Fix The Weather? Hmmm : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR

dog tired > Bob Potter • 15 days ago OK so now we've enjoyed our industrial revolution but so sorry China, you can't have one because you want to burn coal.

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Bob Potter > dog tired • 15 days ago So everybody should smoke tobacco because my grandfather "got to"? Silly.

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dog tired > Bob Potter • 15 days ago Aside from the hypocrasy issue of taking on the attitude of, "I've got mine, too bad for you", there is the issue of national interest. Could be that ours and China's will never coincide making the issue of climate management an exercise in futility, at least for us.

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Bob Potter > dog tired • 15 days ago I do not have that attitude. You need to work on your reading comprehension.

So, why don't you smoke, if my grandfather got to enjoy it? Don't dodge the question, think about it.

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dog tired > Bob Potter • 15 days ago "So everybody should smoke tobacco because my grandfather 'got to'?" Sorry, but this question does not relate to the situation of climate control/policing. No one is saying China "should". It is simply that China chooses to use coal as a means of generating energy. And who are we to say http://www.npr.org/blogs/krulwich/2012/10/30/163964979/will-we-fix-the-weather-yes-should-we-fix-the-weather-hmmm[11/14/2012 3:19:19 PM] Will We 'Fix' The Weather? Yes. Should We Fix The Weather? Hmmm : Krulwich Wonders... : NPR

no? We are not the world's democracy or climate police.

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Mark Kropf • 15 days ago Unintended consequences: the seeming other story of man We can do many things, but most have been accompanied by things that we have not considered.

We have made Atomic weapons and derived both a source of energy and a source of Radioactive pollution. We have allowed people to move faster with cars and air-planes and derived more pollution. We have made farming more efficient and workers more productive and have dropped employment. We have become a global community and derived problems of global competition and displacement of the former primacy of the developed world. The League of Nations and later the United Nations have allowed the World-at-Large to argue up close and fool itself into believing that we could achieve peace, though we can achieve close-up arguments and stagnation. Humans just love to try to fix things, or at least to try to do so.

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Keith Rowe • 15 days ago So...just keep producing as much CO2 as possible? Seems an odd thing. We can have reflective white plastic draped on our land...sure possible...who is going to do the logistics like keep it, clean and replace it? How much will that help? Not enough? Than what stringing white plastic between buoys above the ocean. How much energy will it take to do? If we have the will it will be possible to do much, even crazy amount of things. Why not just a little behaviour modification now would take care of it better.

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Linus Scot > Keith Rowe • 15 days ago And what happens when that white plastic dries out, cracks, breaks, pieces blow off and float in the ocean and

animals eat it, etc? What may be good for one part of the environment may not be good for another. Seems better to leave it alone.

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