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Arctic Council Project (version 18 March 2008) Climate Change and the Cryosphere: Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) A Proposed Arctic Council ‘Cryosphere Project’ in Cooperation with IASC, CliC and IPY Project Proposal for SAOs (Part 2): Project Components/Modules – Provisional List of Content (version 18 March 2008) Table of Contents Preface 1 Rationale 1 Objectives 1 Implementation of the project 2 1. Component 1: Arctic Sea Ice in a Changing Climate 4 1.1 Background 4 1.2 Outline of contents 5 1.3 Links with other organizations and activities 8 1.4 Draft time schedule 9 1.5 Project group 9 2. Component 2: Climate Change and the Greenland Ice Sheet 11 2.1 Background 11 2.2 Outline of contents 11 2.3 Links with other organizations and activities 14 2.4 Draft time schedule 15 2.5 Project group 18 3. Component 3: Climate Change and the Terrestrial Cryosphere 19 3A. Module 1: Changing snow cover and its impacts 19 3A.1 Background 19 3A.2 Outline of contents 19 3A.3 Links with other organizations and activities 21 3A.4 Draft time schedule 21 3A.5 Project group 22 3B. Module 2: Changing permafrost characteristics, distribution and extent and 22 their impacts 3B.1 Background 22 3B.2 Outline of contents 23 3B.3 Links with other organizations and activities 25 3B.4 Draft time schedule 25 3B.5 Project group 26 3C. Module 3: Glaciers and ice caps 26 3C.1 Background 26 3C.2 Outline of contents 27 3C.3 Links with other organizations and activities 31 3C.4 Draft time schedule 31 3C.5 Project group 31 3D. Module 4: Hydrology: Rivers and lakes 33 3D.1 Background 33 3D.2 Outline of contents 33 3D.3 Links with other organizations and activities 38 3D.4 Draft time schedule 39 3D.5 Project group 40 4. Modeling Activities in Support of the Cryosphere Project 40 Annex 1: Acronyms and Websites 43 Preface As described in a separate document (Climate Change and the Cryosphere: Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) – Project Proposal for SAOs (Part 1) - Project Basis, Objectives, Plans for Project Organization and Implementation, and Status of Project Development), at the Arctic Council Ministerial Meeting in 2006, Norway proposed priority areas for the period of their leadership of the Arctic Council. These included further studies on the reduction of snow and ice in the Arctic. Norway, on behalf of Denmark, Norway, and Sweden, presented a concept for a ‘Cryosphere Project’ to the Senior Arctic Officials (SAOs) at their meeting in April 2007. The detailed proposals for the components and modules of the AC Cryosphere Project presented in this document are a follow-up to the decisions made during the SAO meetings in April and November 2007. Experts from the eight Arctic Countries and a number of relevant international organizations, including IASC, CliC and IPY, have evaluated and discussed the content of the project. This document presents the current status of the detailed planning of the project components and modules. Rationale for the Cryosphere Project During the past 5–6 years, the rate of loss of sea ice in the Arctic Ocean has increased considerably, and more rapidly than projected. If this accelerated loss of sea ice continues, the Arctic Ocean could be ice-free during summer earlier than was projected by the 2004 Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA). At the same time, increased movements of ice- flows draining the Greenland Ice Sheet have come as a surprise to the scientists. IPCC (2007) concluded that the physical processes explaining the increased movements are not well understood. The uncertainty about what will happen to the Greenland ice sheet in response to global warming has increased over the period between the IPCC reports in 2001 and 2007. In addition, observations show that snow cover extent on land and the ice in small glaciers and ice caps in the Arctic is being reduced, and that the permafrost is increasingly vulnerable to thaw. As a result, the local, regional and global impacts of these increased rates of reduction in the Greenland ice sheet, sea ice, glaciers, permafrost, and snow could be more immediate than previous scientific reports have indicated. While Arctic residents are directly affected by the changes that are addressed in the proposed project, the potential impacts on sea level and ocean circulation are global. This situation emphasizes the need for more detailed and thorough knowledge about ongoing processes, and more accurate projections about the future situation for the Arctic cryosphere, as well as the resulting impacts on local, regional, and global scales. The ongoing IPY represents a considerable basis for accelerated progress in understanding. The proposed SWIPA reports provide an opportunity to synthesize new information from the IPY and provide a bridge between the IPY, Arctic Council and future IPCC activity. Strong coordination between the Cryosphere Project and the IPY, and other ongoing relevant national and international activities, is central to the Cryosphere Project concept. Objectives The objectives of the Cryosphere Project are to provide the Arctic Council with timely, up-to- date, and synthesized scientific knowledge about the present status, processes, trends, and future consequences of changes in Arctic sea ice, melting of the Greenland ice sheet, and changes in Arctic snow cover, permafrost, mountain glaciers and ice caps, and related hydrological conditions in the Arctic. Future scenarios will be developed to determine, as far as possible, the consequences of these changes on physical processes on local, regional, and global scales, and to determine consequences for Arctic biological systems, and human 1 societies and lifestyles. The project does not intend to initiate any new research, but will be based on recent or ongoing projects, including AMAP national implementation plans, and international activities including IPY research. The resulting reports will highlight gaps in knowledge and recommend actions for future research and monitoring to fill these gaps. The main objectives of the Cryosphere Project are to: • Summarize the state of knowledge regarding Arctic cryosphere changes, including gaps in knowledge; review the key processes that are currently considered to be the primary reasons for the changes that are being observed, in order to improve the understanding of sea ice and thereby improve input to climate models. • Summarize predictions from models; review strengths and weaknesses of individual models; evaluate new model runs; and make recommendations for model improvements. Scenario projections will focus on time horizons of 10-, 30, 50-, and 100-years. • Analyse impacts on ecosystem as a consequence of changes in Arctic cryosphere; provide quantitative or qualitative estimates of, e.g., changes in food web dynamics, responses to rapid/threshold changes, impacts on biodiversity, species extinction, colonisation, etc. • Analyse socio-economic impacts related to Arctic cryosphere changes and how they may be influenced by mitigation and adaptation; provide quantitative or qualitative estimates of, e.g., information concerning shipping seasons, length of fast ice season, number of people impacted, safety issues, food supply, etc. The project will deliver scientific reports that will also contribute recommendations for the improvement of observing platforms and networks (SAON input). Project Implementation: National Leads and International Cooperation As described in a related document (Climate Change and the Cryosphere: Snow, Water, Ice, and Permafrost in the Arctic (SWIPA) - Information Paper for SAOs - Project Basis, Objectives, Plans for Project Organization and Implementation, and Status of Project Development) that describes the overall project concept and organization in more detail, the project is conceived as an ‘integrated project’ - integrating information on the physical changes to the system, but also considering impacts on humans (the ‘human dimension’). For practical purposes, the proposed project work is organized according to three main components (the last of which comprises four sub-modules): Component 1: Climate Change and Arctic Sea Ice. Lead: Norway Component 2: Climate Change and the Greenland Ice Sheet. Lead: Denmark Component 3: Climate Change and the Terrestrial Cryosphere Module 1: Changing snow cover and its impacts. Lead: Sweden Module 2: Changing permafrost characteristics, distribution and extent and their impacts. Lead: Sweden Module 3: Mountain glaciers and ice caps. Lead: Canada, Russia and USA Module 4: Hydrology: Rivers and lakes. Lead: Canada, Russia and USA The project will be implemented by AMAP and its Climate Expert Group (CEG) in close cooperation with national organizations, international organizations (in particular, IASC, CliC, and IPY), and Arctic Council working groups and Permanent Participants. Each of the components and modules of the project has an associated lead country and one or more 2 identified lead person(s). The scientific reports that will be prepared will be based on all information available from international scientific journals, national reports, new research and monitoring data (including both in situ and satellite observations and remote sensing data), etc., subject to documented QA/QC. A project integration team will address integrations issues during both project implementation (to avoid duplication) and reporting stages, also considering on ‘cumulative impacts’ based on the information on impacts deriving from the various project components/modules. Modeling input, which represents a core requirement for all project components and modules, will be made available from ongoing modeling work being coordinated by the AMAP Climate Expert Group as part of the approved AMAP workplan. A detailed description of each of the current status of planning within each of the project components/modules is presented below. 3 1 Component 1: Arctic Sea Ice in a Changing Climate 1.1 Background Sea ice is a fundamental component of the Arctic cryosphere, and thereby also the global cryosphere. It plays an important role in the global climate system, has major socio-economic significance, and is a key climate indicator.
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