Podgorica Climate Change Adaptation
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Podgorica Climate Change Adaptation Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation Action Plan FINAL DRAFT REPORT 8 July 2015 Contents Preface ................................................................................................................................................... 5 1. Objectives and background ........................................................................................................ 7 1.1. Objectives of a climate change adaptation strategy ....................................................... 7 1.2. Situation and developments in Podgorica ........................................................................ 7 1.3. Strategy / Action Plan coverage ....................................................................................... 11 2. Methodological approach and process ................................................................................... 13 2.1. Working process and involved actors of the City .......................................................... 15 2.2. Methodological approach - overview ............................................................................... 16 2.3. Vulnerability Assessment .................................................................................................. 18 2.3.1. Check current vulnerability ........................................................................................ 18 2.3.2. Understand Climate Change Impacts ..................................................................... 19 2.3.3. Assess Future Risks and Opportunities .................................................................. 20 2.4. Adaptation Action Plan ...................................................................................................... 22 3. Climate Change trends in Podgorica ...................................................................................... 24 3.1. Observed climate changes ............................................................................................... 24 3.2. Climate Change Scenarios ............................................................................................... 25 3.3. Conclusions from climate change trends to be considered for the future risks of vulnerable receptors ...................................................................................................................... 29 4. Results of the vulnerability assessment of Podgorica .......................................................... 31 4.1. Extreme weather events in the past ................................................................................ 31 4.2. Current vulnerability ........................................................................................................... 34 4.3. Assessed future risks and opportunities ......................................................................... 38 5. Adaptation Action Plan .............................................................................................................. 41 5.1. Adaptation objectives in Podgorica ................................................................................. 41 5.2. Adaptation actions related to the highest risks / most affected receptors ................. 42 6. Monitoring the effects of planned activities, presentation of data obtained – review of the action plan ........................................................................................................................................... 51 7. Outlook – Instead of conclusion ............................................................................................... 55 8. Glossary ....................................................................................................................................... 56 9. References .................................................................................................................................. 59 Page 2 ANNEXES ANNEX 1 Local sensitivity assessment - former events ANNEX 2 Overview of current vulnerability ANNEX 3 Expected future risks ANNEX 4 Catalogue of adaptation measures ANNEX 5 List of Working Group meetings ANNEX 6 List of Working Group members LIST OF TABLES: Table 1: Group members – institutions represented Table 2: Receptor vulnerability class matrix Table 3: Future risk evaluation matrix Table 4: Categories of adaption (and mitigation) options Table 5: Prioritization of selected measures Table 6: Mean annual air temperature per decades and its change ∆ (°C) in relation to the climatological normal 1961-1990 in Podgorica (Ivanov, 2015) Table 7: Average annual precipitation (mm) per decade and its change ∆ (mm) (Ivanov, 2015) Table 8: Average intensity of precipitation [mm] in the days with heavy rainfall (> 20 mm) (Ivanov, 2015) Table 9: Projected air temperature changes for Podgorica area during hot days and heat waves (Ivanov, 2015) and mean annual and seasonal temperature (Djurdjevic, 2014) Table 10: Projected changes in precipitation quantity for Podgorica during heavy rain and dry days (Ivanov, 2015) and for mean annual and seasonal precipitation (Djurdjevic, 2014) Table 11: Conclusions on potential climate change impacts for Podgorica area for future period Table 12: Vulnerability class evaluation for population Table 13: Vulnerability class evaluation for infrastructure Table 14: Vulnerability class evaluation for built environment Table 15: Vulnerability class evaluation for economy Table 16: Vulnerability class evaluation for natural resources Table 17: Structural measures Table 18: Non-structural measures Table 19: Climate change mitigation measures LIST OF FIGURES: Figure 1: Territorial division of the Capital City of Podgorica Figure 2: Working steps and tools Figure 3: Overview of the methodological approach (FC, 2013) Figure 4: Working steps - check of current vulnerability Figure 5: Percentage of time when Tmax and Tmin was over the 90th percentile in Podgorica (Ivanov, 2015) Figure 6: Projected change in mean annual maximum daily wind speed (%) in relation to 1961- 1990 base period. Scenario A2, period 2071-2100 (Djurdjevic, 2014) Figure 7: Potential vulnerable areas and structures Page 3 Project and edition details Capital City of Podgorica, Montenegro: Secretariat for Spatial Planning and Environmental Protection The report was prepared within the framework of the project>: Climate Change Adaptation in Western Balkans (CCAWB) Implemented by: Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) GmbH, {GIZ logo} on behalf of German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ) Edited by: - Working Group for Adaptation to Climate Change of the Capital City of Podgorica - Sasa Karajovic (local consultant) - INFRASTRUKTUR & UMWELT Professor Böhm and Partner (German consultancy) Project duration: December 2013 – April 2015 Page 4 Preface As a continuously evolving urban system, the Capital City of Podgorica is subject to various climate change impacts, which requires responsible action in order to define appropriate measures and take concrete steps. Aware of the wealth of natural resources that characterizes our city, we are developing mechanisms for their preservation and improvement, all of which serves the healthy environment. We consider participation in the project "Climate change adaptation in the Western Balkans", implemented by Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit (GIZ) and supported by the German consulting company "Infrastruktur & Umwelt Professor Böhm und Partner", within which this document was developed, to be a valuable contribution to our actions in this field. A particularly important project component is the cooperation with other cities in the region, as a quality prerequisite for a more comprehensive approach to solving the identified problems and implementing appropriate activities. Through the implementation of project activities, we have mobilized our own capacities, analysed the situation in various sectors in the context of exposure and vulnerability to extreme weather events and recognized the relevant measures of adaptation to expected climate change. Implementation of defined activities will contribute to the resilience of our urban system to changes in climate parameters, including the preservation of the environment and improvement of the quality of life of citizens. As a result of months of efforts, we have formulated the document before you, which will, we believe, be a useful and inspiring guide for a more complete implementation of all forms of future activities, not only for workers engaged in the field of environmental protection. One of the main objectives of the Climate Change Adaptation Strategy is to offer mechanisms for increasing capacities to adapt to natural and man-made systems, based on the degree of their vulnerability. The problem to be addressed is to increase the availability of the system to respond to changes instead of reacting to undesirable impacts that have been caused precisely by climate change. The adaptation capacity is an indicator which shows at what level should be the degree of concern and in which direction we should act, especially in terms of increasing capacities. Exchange of knowledge and experiences and "lessons learned" are always a good basis for achieving the set objectives. Given that the area of the Capital City of Podgorica has been marked as already built urban system, the adaptation capacities are related to the ability to use the experience gained and be open to new innovative solutions. Increased ability to adapt