STATE OF OREGON Tsunami Inundation Map Curr-15 DEPARTMENT OF GEOLOGY AND MINERAL INDUSTRIES Tsunami Inundation Maps for Winchuck River, www.OregonGeology.org Distant Source (Alaska-Aleutian Subduction Zone) Tsunami Inundation Map Curry County, Oregon Larry Givens, Governing Board Chair Vicki S. McConnell, Director and State Geologist Plate 2 Andree V. Pollock, Assistant Director Geologic Survey and Services Rachel R. Lyles Smith, Project Operations Manager Winchuck River, Oregon Ian P. Madin, Chief Scientist 2012 124°16'0"W 124°14'0"W 124°12'0"W 124°10'0"W W B E N H A M L N

N OC EA N VE IW D R S L H T L S 100 200 Introduction Map Explanation H I L E R Ci ty of Brookings B O N R A R H U O The Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI) This tsunami inundation map displays the output of computer models B B A Ci ty of Brookings N R E Y D V has been identifying and mapping the tsunami inundation hazard representing the two selected tsunami scenarios: Alaska M9.2 (1964) W I E W

E M E RA L D L N along the Oregon coast since 1994. In Oregon, DOGAMI manages the and the Alaska Maximum. All tsunami simulations were run assuming Harbor 200 National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program, which has been that prevailing tide was static (no flow) and equal to Mean Higher administered by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric High Water (MHHW) tide; MHHW is defined as the average height of

P E Administration (NOAA) since 1995. DOGAMI’s work is designed to the higher high tides observed over an 18-year period at the Port L OL S E N L N I H J 12 C A a A R ck help cities, counties, and other sites in coastal areas reduce the Orford tide gauge. The map legend depicts the respective amounts of 101 N B C r B O ee 25 100 A R k potential for disastrous tsunami-related consequences by deformation and the earthquake magnitude for these two scenarios. Y H D I L

R NO L understanding and mitigating this geologic hazard. Using federal Figure 3 shows the cumulative number of buildings inundated within S

H T funding awarded by NOAA, DOGAMI has developed a new generation the map area. S N A P A L N O C of tsunami inundation maps to help residents and visitors along the E A N V I LIDAR entire Oregon coast prepare for the next Cascadia Subduction Zone The computer simulation model output is provided to DOGAMI as E W

D (CSZ) earthquake and tsunami, as well as for far-travelled, or “distant” millions of points with values that indicate whether the location of R tsunamis. each point is wet or dry. These points are converted to wet and dry U P P E contour lines that form the extent of inundation. The transition area P E D R R I O L I D R B E The "Ring of Fire", also called the Circum-Pacific belt, is the zone of between the wet and dry contour lines is termed the Wet/Dry Zone, N H

A earthquake activity surrounding the Pacific Ocean. It is an arc which equates to the amount of error in the model when determining M

42°2'0"N L stretching from New Zealand, along the eastern edge of Asia, north the maximum inundation for each scenario. Only the Alaska 200 N across the Aleutian Islands of Alaska, and south along the coast of Maximum Wet/Dry Zone is shown on this map.

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North and South America (Figure 1). The Ring of Fire is located at the A S I borders of the Pacific Plate and other major tectonic plates. The Pacific This map also shows the regulatory tsunami inundation line (Oregon D E Winchuck RFPD Plate is colliding with and sliding underneath other plates creating Revised Statutes 455.446 and 455.447), commonly known as the C T W N I 100 N R L R subduction zones that eventually release energy in the form of an Senate Bill 379 line. Senate Bill 379 (1995) instructed DOGAMI to D I V

D E L C E L N I I R E W I 200 L R N C A H U C K O D R I V earthquake rupture. This rupture causes a vertical displacement of establish the area of expected tsunami inundation based on scientific I D E R R R 100 R E D D water that creates a tsunami. When these events occur around the evidence and tsunami modeling in order to prohibit the construction E N C

P L H A

N N Ring of Fire but not directly off the Oregon coast, they take more time of new essential and special occupancy structures in this tsunami R 200 O B 42°2'0"N S O

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to travel the Pacific Ocean and arrive onshore in Oregon (Figure 2). inundation zone (Priest, 1995). R

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O Distant earthquake/tsunami events have affected the Oregon coast: S

T M G R A N T H E M I I A L

for example, offshore Alaska in 1964 and offshore Japan in March Time Series Graphs and Wave Elevation Profiles: In addition to the L

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2011. tsunami scenarios, the computer model produces time series data for D 100 “gauge” locations in the area. These points are simulated gauge M U S E U M R D Historically, about 28 distant tsunamis have been documented by stations that record the time, in seconds, of the tsunami wave arrival of Br k ty oo 25 e L A U i k e R E i N C E Oregon tide gauges since 1854. The most severe was generated by the and the wave height observed. It is especially noteworthy that the C n r L N g s C

1964 M9.2 Prince William Sound earthquake in Alaska. Oregon was greatest wave height and velocity observed are not necessarily n

o s Wi

nc 100 hit hard by the tsunami, which killed four people and caused an associated with the first tsunami wave to arrive onshore. Therefore n hu h ck o estimated 750,000 to 1 million dollars in damage to bridges, houses, evacuees should not assume that the tsunami event is over until the O C R

E J i A v 200 N V e I r cars, boats, and sea walls. The greatest tsunami damage in Oregon did proper authorities have sounded the all-clear at the end of the E W D

R C A M E L L I A D R 200 not occur along the ocean front as one might expect, but in the estuary evacuation. Figure 4 depicts the tsunami waves as they arrive at a 100 100 channels located further inland. Of the communities affected, Seaside simulated gauge station. Figure 5 depicts the overall wave height and A

A' 101 was inundated by a 10 foot tsunami wave and was the hardest hit. inundation extent for the two scenarios at the profile locations shown 200

D Tsunami wave heights reached 10 to 11.5 feet in the Nehalem River, on this map. R N M W O O L C V A K 10 to 11.5 feet at Depoe Bay, 11.5 feet at Newport, 10 to 11 feet at D R I F F Y C R E E Florence, 11 feet at Reedsport, 11 feet at Brookings, and 14 feet at Ci ty of Brookings L A U R E N C E L N Coos Bay (Witter and others, 2011). 200

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L N L M Alaska-Aleutian Model Specifications: DOGAMI modeled two distant L U C G V earthquake and tsunami scenarios involving M9.2 earthquakes A A

E Y S 200 100

originating near the Gulf of Alaska. The first scenario attempts to NL 200 replicate the 1964 Prince William Sound event, and the second McVay Rock State scenario represents a hypothetical maximum event. This maximum Recreation Site McVay Creek event is the same model used by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) in 100 their 2006 tsunami hazard assessment of Seaside (TPSW, 2006). This model uses extreme fault model parameters that result in maximum seafloor uplift, nearly twice as large as in the 1964 earthquake. The Pacific Ocean selected source location on the Aleutian chain of islands also shows 25 higher energy directed toward the Oregon coast than other Alaskan source locations. For these reasons the hypothetical “Alaska Maximum” scenario is selected as the worst case distant tsunami F R E E scenario for Oregon. Detailed information on fault geometries, M A N

M subsidence, computer models, and the methodology used to create the O U N T tsunami scenarios presented on this map can be found in DOGAMI F O X D R A I N L Special Paper 43 (Witter and others, 2011). N

O C E A N V I E W D R Ring of Fire 200

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100 R E 200 V R I K H UC N C W I

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K 25 25

C 200 O

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K 100 A K E M L I N P L E B P B' W I T Figure 1: The “Ring of Fire” is a zone O Z R E N D L

of active earthquakes and volcanoes L M A W os that rings much of the Pacific Ocean, M I er N R C C including the Oregon coast. Volcanoes D H r U ee C k and earthquakes on this ring are K

R I caused by the movements of tectonic V 25 E R plates. One type of movement is called Winchuck State R D subduction — when thin, oceanic Recreation Site 200 plates, such as those that compose the rock beneath the Pacific Ocean, sink W inch beneath thicker, lighter plates that uck River 100 make up continental plates. Crissey Earthquakes that occur as a result of 101 Field State H E N D R Y L N subduction can trigger tsunamis. Recreation Site

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Prince William Sound 1964 M9.2 Earthquake and Tsunami Travel Time Map B R A Y N A R D L N 42°0'0"N

S E A V I E W L N

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100 OREGON 200 200 CALIFORNIA

100 25 42°0'0"N

South Coast Model

South Coast Model OREGON CALIFORNIA Figure 2: This image depicts the actual initial tsunami arrival times, in hours, around the Pacific Rim from the 1964 Prince William Sound earthquake. This magnitude 9.2 earthquake and resulting tsunami caused 125 deaths and $311 million in property loss, $84 million and 106 deaths in Alaska (NGDC/WDC). The tsunami devastated many towns NO MODEL DATA along the Gulf of Alaska, left serious damage in British Columbia, Hawaii, and along the west coast of the United States, and was recorded on tide gauges in Cuba and Puerto Rico.

124°14'0"W 124°12'0"W 124°10'0"W Buildings within Tsunami Inundation Zones Estimated Tsunami Wave Height through Time for Simulated Gauge Station Maximum Wave Elevation Profiles Tsunami Inundation Map Index Legend Data References 17 Source Data: References: This map is based on hydrodynamic tsunami modeling by National Geophysical Data Center / World Data Center Earthquake Joseph Zhang, Oregon Health and Science University, (NGDC/WDC) Global Historical Tsunami Database, 01 Portland, Oregon. Model data input were created by John Boulder, CO, USA. s Earthquake Size Slip / Deformation Magnitude

a

s l T. English and George R. Priest, Department of Geology [http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/tsu_db.shtml].

o

g

o and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI), Portland, Oregon. 02 03 u

C o Alaska M9.2 (1964) Vertical seafloor deformation ~9.2 Priest, G. R., 1995, Explanation of mapping methods and

D estimate. Hydrology data, contours, critical facilities, and building use of the tsunami hazard maps of the Oregon coast, y

s footprints were created by DOGAMI. Senate Bill 379 line Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries r

o r Uniform slip on 12 subfaults with data were redigitized by Rachel R. Lyles Smith and Sean G. Open-File Report O-95-67, 95 p. o

04 u Alaska Maximum ~9.2

C C each assigned values ranging Pickner, DOGAMI, in 2011 (GIS file set, in press, 2012). Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group (TPSW), 2006, from 49 to 98 feet. Urban growth boundaries (2010) were provided by the Seaside, Oregon tsunami pilot study — modernization of 05 Oregon Department of Land Conservation and FEMA flood hazard maps: U.S. Geological Survey Open- Alaska Maximum Wet/Dry Zone Development (DLCD). File Report 2006-1234, 90 p. + 7 app. [http://pubs.usgs.gov/of/2006/1234/]. 06 Transportation data (2010) provided by Curry County were edited by DOGAMI to improve the spatial accuracy Witter, R.C., Zhang, Y., Wang, K., Priest, G.R., Goldfinger, C., Urban Growth Boundary Fire Station of the features or to add newly constructed roads not Stimely, L.L., English, J.T., and Ferro, P.A., 2011, Simulating present in the original data layer. tsunami inundation at Bandon, Coos County, Oregon, No Gauge Station Data For Map Extent 07 08 OREGON using hypothetical Cascadia and Alaska earthquake Police Station Lidar data are from DOGAMI Lidar Data Quadrangles scenarios: Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Building Footprint LDQ-2009-42124-A2-MountEmily and LDQ-2009- Industries Special Paper 43, 57 p. 42124-A3-Brookings. 09 6 Simulated Gauge Station School Coordinate System: Oregon Statewide Lambert Conformal Conic, Unit: International Feet, Horizontal 10 J o Datum: NAD 1983 HARN, Vertical Datum: NAVD 1988. s C e Profile Location Hospital/Urgent Care Clinic Graticule shown with geographic coordinates u p h r (latitude/longitude). 11 r i y n e Senate Bill 379 Line 101 U.S. Highway Software: Esri ArcGIS® 10.0, Microsoft® Excel®, and 12 Adobe® Illustrator® State Park Funding: This map was funded under award Figure 5: These profiles depict the expected maximum tsunami wave elevation for the two Alaska tsunami scenarios along lines A-A' and B-B'. The tsunami scenarios are modeled to occur at static (no flow) tide and equal to the 241 13 State Highway #NA09NW54670014 by the National Oceanic and Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) high tide. Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) through the Elevation Contour 14 National Tsunami Hazard Mitigation Program. 16 (25 ft intervals up to 200 ft) Improved Road Map Data Creation/Development: 15 Tsunami Inundation Scenarios: George R. Priest, Laura L. Figure 4: This chart depicts the tsunami waves as they arrive at the selected reference point (simulated gauge station). It shows the change in wave heights Stimely, Daniel E. Coe, Paul A. Ferro, Sean G. Pickner, Rachel R. Lyles Smith for the two Alaska tsunami scenarios over an 8-hour period. Wave heights vary through time, and the first wave will not necessarily be the largest as waves Curr-01 Langlois Curr-09 Gold Beach Basemap Data: Kaleena L.B. Hughes, Sean G. Pickner interfere and reflect off local topography and bathymetry. Curr-02 Cape Blanco Curr-10 Cape Sebastian Curr-03 Denmark Curr-11 Pistol River Map Production: Curr-04 Port Orford Curr-12 Carpenterville Cartography: Kaleena L.B. Hughes, Sean G. Pickner, Curr-05 Humbug Mountain Curr-13 Harris Beach Taylore E. Womble Curr-06 Sisters Rock Curr-14 Chetco River 0 0.25 0.5 Mile For copies of this publication contact: Text: Don W.T. Lewis, Rachel R. Lyles Smith Nature of the Northwest Information Center Curr-07 Nesika Beach Curr-15 Winchuck River Editing: Don W.T. Lewis, Rachel R. Lyles Smith 800 NE Oregon Street, #28, Ste. 965 Figure 3: The table and chart show the number of buildings inundated for the Alaska M9.2 (1964) and the Alaska Maximum Curr-08 North Rogue River Curr-16 Brookings Publication: Deborah A. Schueller Portland, Oregon 97232 0 0.25 0.5 1 Kilometer tsunami scenarios for cities and unincorporated portions of the map. Map Date: 11/08/2012 telephone (971) 673-2331 Scale 1:10,000 http://www.naturenw.org