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Mass Media and Political Polarization in the United States

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Mass Media and Political Polarization in the United States MASS MEDIA AND POLITICAL POLARIZATION IN THE UNITED STATES by Dominik Andrzej Stecula A THESIS SUBMITTED IN PARTIAL FULFILLMENT OF THE REQUIREMENTS FOR THE DEGREE OF DOCTOR OF PHILOSOPHY in THE FACULTY OF GRADUATE AND POSTDOCTORAL STUDIES (Political Science) THE UNIVERSITY OF BRITISH COLUMBIA (Vancouver) July 2018 © Dominik Andrzej Stecula, 2018 The following individuals certify that they have read, and recommend to the Faculty of Graduate and Postdoctoral Studies for acceptance, the dissertation entitled: Mass media and political polarization in the United States in partial fulfillment of the requirements submitted by Dominik Andrzej Stecula for the degree of Doctor of Philosophy in Political Science Examining Committee: Paul J. Quirk Supervisor Richard Johnston Supervisory Committee Member Frederick Cutler Supervisory Committee Member Mary Lynn Young University Examiner Gyung-Ho Jeong University Examiner Additional Supervisory Committee Members: Stuart N. Soroka Supervisory Committee Member Supervisory Committee Member ii Abstract This dissertation is composed of three papers broadly examining the relationship between the mass media and political polarization in the United States. The first paper examines whether the media might have played a role in the polarization of the American public. Using an automated content analysis of almost 600,000 news articles and transcripts from a variety of prominent news media sources over the past four decades, the paper analyzes whether coverage of ten issues has changed over time along several dimensions of tone (affect, incivility, conflict) and source cues (in particular, whether the media cover increasingly more extreme politicians). The results indicate that the media likely contributed to the process of partisan sorting by increasingly providing the public with partisan signals in the news coverage. There is also some evidence that the media contributed to the affective polarization of the public. The second paper focuses on the nature of media coverage of climate change and its effect on public opinion polarization of climate change attitudes, finding that despite the common perception, the media, including conservative media, did not overwhelmingly promote climate change skeptics, industry groups, or denialist organizations. Instead, the coverage featured an increasing number of partisan cues as the issue rose in salience, which polarized the public. In the third paper, I examine the relationship between climate change attitudes and news media diets. Previous work has focused extensively on Fox News and posits that Fox has been a dominant player in turning the Americans, and especially Republicans, into climate skeptics. Utilizing a large national survey, I find that the relationship is more nuanced than previously argued. Fox News does seem to have a negative effect on supporting governmental action in reducing greenhouse gas emissions, though iii that effect is limited to a small group of purists stuck in the conservative echo chamber. Most people, and importantly, most Republicans, are not very likely to be members of that group. iv Lay Summary This dissertation is composed of three papers analyzing the relationship between the news media and the process of political polarization in the United States. The first paper examines how the news content changed over the past forty years as the media landscape fragmented. Contrary to some theories, the news did not become more negative, conflictual, or uncivil. It did, however, become increasingly politicized. The second paper examines why Republicans became skeptical of climate change, and what role the media played in the process. The findings suggest that the media politicized the climate coverage as it increased in prominence, and the exposure to political signals on the topic spurred Republican climate skepticism. The third paper examines whether Fox News viewership is related to climate skepticism, and finds that it is, but the relationship is strong only for the small group of people in the right-wing echo chamber. v Preface Paper II of this dissertation has been co-authored with Eric Merkley, a Ph.D. student in the department of political science at UBC. Both Eric and I contributed equally to the development of the research question. Both Eric and I downloaded the stories that the analysis is based on from online databases, but Eric has done slightly more of that. I have collected the public opinion polls from the Roper Center and put together the climate skepticism measure. Eric has been the primary person who conceived of the time series models explaining climate skepticism and ran the analyses. I created all of the figures in Stata. Both Eric and I wrote the paper, and revised it considerably several times. The core of the introduction, literature review, and conclusion has been done by me, while the core of the write up of the model justification and discussion of the results has been done by Eric. A version of this work has been presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association in 2015 and 2016, the annual meeting of the Pacific Northwest Political Science Association in 2016, as well as the Comparative-Canadian Workshop at UBC in the fall of 2015. An academic paper that is based on Paper II, and which utilized parts of its data has recently been published in the journal Science Communication. The full citation is: Merkley, E., & Stecula, D. A. (2018). Party Elites or Manufactured Doubt? The Informational Context of Climate Change Polarization. Science Communication, 40(2), 258–274. https://doi.org/10.1177/1075547018760334 vi Papers I and III have been entirely single-authored endeavors, where I formulated the research questions, collected the data, performed the analyses, and wrote up the results. Paper III relies on data collected by YouGov in an internet panel survey, which are part of a larger research project conducted by Dr. Andrew Owen, Dr. Paul Quirk, and Dr. Kathryn Harrison (all UBC), as well as Dr. Nancy Olewiler (Simon Fraser University). They have generously agreed to allow me to ask several questions to get the data for my dissertation. The media questions, designed by me, on which Paper III is based, are part of the larger study which has been approved by UBC’s Behavioural Research Ethics Board (application # H13-03509). A previous version of Paper III has been presented at the annual meeting of the Western Political Science Association in 2017. vii Table of Contents Abstract .................................................................................................................................... iii Lay Summary ........................................................................................................................... v Preface ...................................................................................................................................... vi Table of Contents ................................................................................................................... viii List of Tables............................................................................................................................ xi List of Figures ........................................................................................................................ xiii Acknowledgements ................................................................................................................ xiv Dedication .............................................................................................................................. xvi Introduction .............................................................................................................................. 1 Paper I Politicized news: How the news media contributed to the polarized climate in the United States ............................................................................................................................. 5 1 Introduction ......................................................................................................................... 5 2.1 The media and three types of polarization ......................................................................... 7 2.1.1 Ideological polarization .............................................................................................. 7 2.1.2 Partisan sorting ........................................................................................................... 9 2.1.3 Affective polarization ............................................................................................... 10 2.2 Mass media and polarization ........................................................................................... 11 2.2.1 Mass media and ideological polarization .................................................................. 14 2.2.2 Mass media and partisan sorting ............................................................................... 16 2.2.3 Mass media and affective polarization ...................................................................... 17 3 Data and methods............................................................................................................... 20 viii 4 Analysis ............................................................................................................................. 25 5 Discussion and conclusion ................................................................................................. 43 Paper II Party cues in the
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