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Metrowest and Rail Update

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Metrowest and Rail Update West of England Joint Transport Board 12 December 2014 MetroWest and Rail Update Purpose 1. This report provides an update on MetroWest and other rail issues. It includes high level reporting on costs and funding for MetroWest Phase 1 and 2 as shown below. MetroWest Phase 1 and 2 – Scheme Cost and Profile MetroWest Phase 1 £58.2m Cost* MetroWest Phase 2** £43m Total £101.2m Devolved Major Schemes £81.4m Early development costs £5.6m Funding Local Growth Fund £11.7m Total £98.7m Shortfall £2.5m * outturn costs including 30% contingency ** Phase 2 costs based on Halcrow Study of 2012, which assumed a Henbury ‘spur’ Funding Local Profile Devolved Allocation Growth Local Fund Total Shortfall 2015/16 - 2021/22 – 2015/16- 2020/21 2024/25 2018/19 MetroWest £3.5m £44.9m - £8.5m £56.9m £1.3m Phase 1 MetroWest £2.1m - £36.5m £.3.2m £41.8m £1.2m Phase 2 Notes: Figures have been rounded. Implementation of Phase 2 currently planned to start in 20/21 in advance of the next tranche of devolved funding being available in 21/22. 2. The tables above have been updated with the £11.7m successfully bid for through the Strategic Economic Plan Local Growth Fund intervention for Phase 1 capital and Phase 2 development costs. This has substantially reduced the 1 overall MetroWest shortfall from £14.9m to £2.5m. As reported to the Joint Transport Board on 12 September 2014 the £1.3m shortfall for Phase 1 will be explored through the production of the Outline Business Case for completion by November 2015. For more detail of the cost and funding profiles for MetroWest Phase 1 and 2 from 2015/16 to 2024/25 see Figure One. Phasing Opportunities for Phase 2 3. It should be noted that capital funding for Phase 2 through the devolved major scheme allocation only comes on stream in 2021/22 and therefore opening the scheme in 2021 will be a significant challenge. 4. Phasing opportunities to bring forward funding for Phase 2 include: Seek agreement for early drawdown of devolved funding for 2021/22 for Phase 2. Borrow against 2021/22 allocation to enable start in 2020/21. Economic Development Fund with the opportunity to use retained business rates to fund the shortfall. MetroWest Progress 5. The Board receives a high level report on progress on MetroWest Phases 1 and 2 and the latest versions in the new simplified format can be found in Appendix One and Two. A summary of recent, current and planned activities over the next few months is provided below. MetroWest Phase 1 Development Consent Order (DCO) – North Somerset Council will be the sole promoter and legal team procurement is taking place. Case to be submitted to the Office of Rail Regulation on the ‘exceptional circumstances’ required for a level crossing at Quays Avenue in Portishead. GRIP Stage 3-4 brief issued. Network Rail to issue tender in December 2014 with appointment of consultants anticipated by February 2015. Updated Initial Promotion Agreement to be signed by the four local authorities covering all work streams for the Outline Business Case. MetroWest Phase 2 Network Rail capability (timetable) analysis work feeding into GRIP 1-2 study. South Gloucestershire Council signed GRIP Stage 1-2 Development Services Agreement with Network Rail. Network Rail has appointed URS to produce the GRIP Stage 1-2 report and work has started. GRIP Stage 1-2 work currently underway. CH2MHill started work on the Preliminary Business Case work, September 2014. 2 Bristol New Stations High Level Assessment Study work on new stations at Ashley Down and Horfield (with alternative site at Constable Road) feeding into GRIP Stage 1-2 work. Timescales for Phase 1 and 2 Key decisions/milestones Date Phase 1 Phase 1 Preliminary Business Case endorsed by the Joint September 2014 Transport Board to progress to Outline Business Case (Programme Entry) for GRIP Stage 3. Phase 1 Outline Business Case and seek powers and Autumn 2015 procurement decision by Joint Transport Body. Phase 1 Development Consent Order application Spring 2016 Phase 1 Full Approval decision by Joint Transport Body Autumn 2017 Phase 1 construction December 2017 to May 2019 Phase 1 opening May 2019 Phase 2 Phase 2 Preliminary Business Case and single option (for GRIP June 2015 Stage 3) decision by Joint Transport Body. Phase 2 Outline Business Case and seek powers and June 2016 procurement decision by Joint Transport Body. Phase 2 Full Approval decision by Joint Transport Body March 2020 Phase 2 construction April 2020 to March 2021 Phase 2 opening May 2021 3 Figure One: MetroWest Scheme Cost and Profile (£M) Pre Scheme 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/12 23/24 24/25 Total 15/16 Phase 1 £1.28 £2.99 £2.53 £18.94 £29.93 £2.49 - - - - - £58.16 Phase 2 £0.69 £1.41 £0.42 £0.87 £0.89 £0.24 £29.25 £9.23 - - - £43.00 Total £1.97 £4.4 £2.95 £19.81 £30.82 £2.73 £29.25 £9.23 - - - £101.16 MetroWest Funding and Profile (£M) Scheme Pre 15/16 16/17 17/18 18/19 19/20 20/21 21/22 22/12 23/24 24/25 Total 15/16 Confirmed Local £1.97 - - - - - - - - - - £1.97 Funding Other Local Funding £3.62* £3.62 Devolved Major - - - £28.40 £16.50 - - - - - - £44.90 Schemes Phase 1 Devolved Major - - - - - - - £36.50 - - - £36.50 Schemes Phase 2 Local Growth Fund - 1.60 1.60 4.25 4.25 - - - - - - £11.70 Total £1.97 £5.22 £1.60 £32.65 £20.75 - - £36.50 - - - £98.69 * Full local authority funding for Phase 1 in 2015/16 still to be confirmed Shortfall (-Surplus) £0 -£0.82 £1.35 -£12.84 £10.07 £2.73 £29.25 -£27.27 - - - £2.47 4 Stakeholder Engagement 6. Stakeholder meetings now take place after each Joint Transport Board. The most recent one was held in Kingswood on 22 September 2014. First Great Western provided an update on their activities with Network Rail explaining the GRIP process followed by a detailed run through the MetroWest Phase 1 Preliminary Business Case. Whilst the attendance was disappointing there was a lively question and answer session covering issues around funding, passenger forecasting, revenue protection, alternative train services and improving access to stations. The next meeting is at the Campus in Worle on 17 December 2014, 4pm to 6pm. Risk 7. Key risks will form part of the quarterly reporting to the Board. Risks at the project and programme level will be managed through the Rail Programme Board. Equalities Implications 8. New stations and services provided under MetroWest will be designed to meet all statutory accessibility standards. Affordability issues will need to be considered as evidence shows that people from minority ethnic backgrounds, disabled and older people have a lower ability to pay. Consultation will ensure wide opportunities for diverse groups to have their say. Equality Impact Assessments will be undertaken and maintained and updated as the MetroWest projects progress. Resources (financial and personnel) 9. This Board at its meeting on 2 December 2013 endorsed the MetroWest Phase 1 budget of £1.53m and Phase 2 budget of £0.4m for 2014/15 for approval by the four councils. These budgets have now been approved. 10. Delivering MetroWest will require additional resources and funding. MetroWest Phase 1 and Phase 2 train services will require financial support from the local authorities for the first three years. Subject to meeting value for money criteria the Department for Transport may fund the services from then on. Environmental Impact Assessment 11. Whilst rail’s share of journeys to work is modest, modern rolling stock contributes less carbon emissions than other forms of transport. Reinstating the railway line between Pill and Portishead, new services on the Portishead and Henbury Lines and the construction of new stations under Phase 1 and Phase 2 will have a visual and environmental impact. 5 Other rail updates Western Route Study 12. Network Rail’s Western Route Study, October 2014 sets out a strategy for developing rail services to 2043. It predominately covers the area of the current First Great Western Franchise and includes the Great Western Main Line to Bristol and Bath as well local and freight only lines. Whilst it covers a 30 year time frame the detail is focused on proposals for the next Control Period (CP6 2019 to 2024). 2019 is taken as the starting point or baseline so schemes such as the four tracking of Filton Bank, electrification of the Great Western Main Line, new platforms at Bristol Parkway and Temple Meads and signalling renewal in the Bristol area are all assumed to have happened. Points to note for the West of England are: Inclusion of MetroWest Phase 1 and 2 in the 2019 baseline. Enhanced renewal of Bristol East Junction needed during Control Period 5 (2014 to 2019) to provide capacity for post 2019 train services including MetroWest Phase 2. Passenger capacity interventions at Bristol Temple Meads and Bristol Parkway. Capacity constraints at Westerleigh Junction (for services to Yate and the Midlands) and between Westerleigh and Stoke Gifford. Future electrification proposals for Bristol to Weston-super-Mare, Bristol to Birmingham and to Avonmouth and Portbury docks. Additional and faster services train services for Bristol to Gloucester (1 train per hour Bristol to Cardiff (2 tph with extensions beyond Bristol), Cardiff to Birmingham via Bristol Parkway (2 tph), Bristol to Exeter (1 tph), Bristol to the South Coast (1 tph), Bath to Oxford (1 tph) and freight (1 tph).
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