2020 and Beyond: Future Scenarios for Education in the Age of New

OPENING EDUCATION 2020 and beyond Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies This publication is available to download from the Futurelab website – www.futurelab.org.uk/openingeducation

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Opening Education Series Focusing on emergent ideas in education and technology, this series of publications opens up new areas for debate and discussion.

We encourage the use and circulation of the text content of these publications, which are available to download from the Futurelab website – www.futurelab.org.uk/resources. For full details of our open access policy, go to www.futurelab.org.uk/policies. Contents

1 Introduction 3 2 The structure of the paper 5 3 Future scenarios 6 4 Key challenges for education 27 5 Future visions – when digital meets biomedical 31 6 Sources and further reading 33

Hans Daanen and Keri Facer

Futurelab 2007 2020 and beyond : Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 01 Foreword

What is the Opening Education series? Opening Education is Futurelab’s ‘blue skies’ publications series. As its name suggests, this series is intended to open up areas for debate; to provoke, to challenge, to stimulate new visions for education.

The ideas and arguments presented in these publications are generated in a variety of ways – through events and consultations with thinkers, practitioners and policy makers from a variety of sectors, through thought- experiments and visioning workshops, and as unexpected ‘side effects’ of the research and development activity that goes on at Futurelab on a day-to-day basis. The series complements our evidence-based publications by offering a space to propose new ideas that may not yet be ready for implementation or rigorous evaluation.

Why publish this series? All the research into innovation in a range of sectors suggests that having a superﬂ uity of ideas is essential for growth and development – education is no different. We need to have a surplus of potential ideas, visions and plans so that we have a range of strategies to draw on when we face the serious educational challenges that social, economic and technical change presents us with. Not all ideas will become a reality, not all ideas will survive in the form in which they were ﬁ rst presented, but what cannot be denied is that education, and educators, need to know that there is scope to dream; to think about new approaches and different ways of doing things; to know that the ways we do things now will not be always and forever the same.

It is in this spirit that we publish these ideas. They are experimental and exploratory, both in their arguments and in the forms in which we publish – they don’t all look the same, feel the same, say the same thing. They all, however, attempt to open up a new area for debate and for action, and we look forward to hearing from you and working with you to determine their fate.

Keri Facer Research Director 2020 and beyond : Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 02 1. Introduction

At the present time the UK education system is witnessing a rash of crystal ball gazing. The Education 2020 report provides a vision for personalised learning for the next 13 years; the Building Schools for the Future programme is engendering debates about the institutions and structures of schooling for the next 50 years; and the 21st century curriculum reviews at QCA are generating discussions about the purpose and function of education for the next 100 years. These discussions are not restricted to the UK; since the late 1990s nation states around the world, and international organisations such as the OECD and UN, have been exploring the future of education in the 21st century.

This publication is intended to challenge and disturb some of the assumptions underlying these discussions by reviewing current predictions about the development in capacities of digital technologies between now and 2020.

In producing this brief paper, we want to ask the questions: • To what extent are we prepared, as a society and as educators, for the massive changes in human capabilities that digital technologies are likely to enable in the next 13 years? • To what extent are our future visions for education based upon assumptions about humanity, society and technology that are no longer valid? • To what extent can we, as educators, help to shape the developments of technology in order to enhance human development?

Predicting the future, of course, is notoriously unreliable. We only have to look back to the 1970s to witness the prediction that only three computers would be required worldwide, for example; or to the 1960s to witness predictions that we would shortly be living on the moon in fetching silver jumpsuits. The pace of technological change is both more rapid than we can ever predict, and monumentally slower than we had thought possible. This is not only because it is sometimes harder to achieve the breakthroughs that we had intended, or indeed easier because developments in one ﬁ eld unexpectedly assist researchers in another (think of the implications for human genomics of the massive increase in computer processing power over the last ten years). 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 03 It is also because technologies enter into already existing social spaces – they are shaped by the existing social practices, human interactions and values that they encounter outside the laboratory. Again, we only have to look to the history of the record player to see how social practice can transform a technology – this device was originally intended as a personal recording machine rather than a replay tool which would spawn an entire industry and transform musical practices around the world.

Why, then, should educators consider some of the current predictions for developments in digital technologies?

If educators are to shape the future of education (and not have it shaped for them by external technical developments) it is crucial that we engage with developments in digital technologies at the earliest stages. We need to understand what may be emerging, explore its implications for education, and understand how best we might harness these changes. Without this early engagement we risk, as always, being the Cinderella sector of the technology world – constantly receiving the hand-me-downs from the business, defence and leisure industries and then trying to repurpose them for educational goals. Without this early engagement, we also risk designing educational practices and approaches that will be rendered obsolete and anachronistic in the context of new human-technological capabilities.

As Douglas Adams once observed, “the best way to predict the future is to build it”. We need to know the building blocks available to us as educators in the near future in order to know how we might use them and develop them for education. 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 04 2. T T entit as d ma d commentators an d some oft to e • persona to constrainorena t instit • comp • inte inc a • sec areas are We a In eac • interfaces imaginative (or into t in t fringes ofcertaint by w Fina b b h h isc eve eve iome iome e i 1 at isc

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s e l ways. Audio communicators in your ear work together with visual displays in glasses and contact lenses, which connect with comms devices (embedded in your belt) and with the environmental sensors (picking up sound, movement, heat, pollution) embedded in your jacket or your car. 2020 and beyond : Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 07 Questions for education One of the longstanding debates in education has been the extent to which young people should be taught to resist or rely on new technologies. Since the dawn of formal education, there have been concerns about children’s reliance upon slate, paper, pen and ink, ball-point pens, calculators and word processors (spellcheckers) in their learning. We have always, in these circumstances however, been able to clearly distinguish the artefact from the child.

As digital technologies become embedded in the very fabric of everyday life and integrated into commonplace materials, it will become almost impossible to consider what life is like without technological ‘enhancement’. Instead, we may begin to conceive of concepts such as intelligence as a way of describing what someone is able to do with technologies and tools, not what they are able to do ‘on their own’. ‘Thinking’ may be reconceived as a distributed activity – across the mind, body and digital resources that as a constellation make up the individual.

The questions these embedded and ubiquitous devices raise for education are potentially profound: Who or what should be tested in exams? The person, the person plus tools or the person’s use of tools? What skills should education develop? Skills of interpretation of complex and ongoing datafl ows, or skills of fi nding silence and refl ection in the midst of constant information? Who is the subject of education? The child or the tools which need to learn to support the child? What are educational basics in an age when interaction with information and knowledge is as likely to come through auditory and image-based media as through written text? What does a fair education system look like, if intelligence is enhanced and developed through tools that can be purchased? 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 08 Indicative R&D Almost every technical research lab in academia and industry has projects on aspects of wearable computing. IBM has an overview of its research in this area here - www.research.ibm.com/cross_disciplines/p_systems.shtml. The Equator project (www.equator.ac.uk) has developed various examples of devices that are integrated and wearable.

3.2 Intelligent environments Digital technology is everywhere; it is embedded in everything around you from city streets, to buildings, to ﬂ agpoles and bus stops. These technologies can talk to each other and to the technologies and sensors you have embedded in your own clothes. As a result, your environment can adapt to you and connect with you and know everything about you – where you are, how you feel, what you’ve done, what you might want to do.

You’re too hot, the temperature has been up in the top 30s again for the third time this week, and you’ve had enough. Walking in from the heat to your local learning centre the building senses this – imperceptibly it alters the temperature and the air conditioning in the areas you walk into until it picks up from your biosensors that you have cooled down. As you enter the building, it also lets you know that the person you’ve been wanting to talk to about a project you’re working on has indicated that she’s got free space in her calendar for a chat and that she’s on the third ﬂ oor. As you make your way up the stairs, the doors unlock and allow you through – they know who you are and where in the building you are allowed to go. You and your friend sit down together around a table and call up the conﬁ dential documents you wanted to work on. As someone from another project team enters the room, however, the documents cloud over and restrict access and you decide to move to a more private space to talk through the issues that have come up.

As you make your way home, you decide to link back into a game you’ve been playing throughout the city for a while now. Instantly, a jungle is overlaid on your vision of the city streets and buildings. Other players of the game are highlighted in your vision and you can decide to talk to them, work together with them or avoid them, depending on the information that ﬂ ashes up on your screen – they may be allies or enemies, advisors or decoys. Around you, hotspots visible only to you and other players glow on the walls of buildings 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 09 10 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies an co past an same time,connects register ot are p h ll d er ecte ont l w a ise y d d ing, h y int . Yo e pavement o h u ave fo r presencean b h u ase e r jo l ig d u u h on rne n ts t d . y b y y h o eneat o t at u u h

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Questions for education The institutions in which we educate, in which we organise teaching and learning, have embedded within them what Torin Monahan has called a ‘built pedagogy’. They make some sorts of interactions easier than others, make some more likely and others unpleasant and difﬁ cult. The development of intelligent environments renders this relationship between space and human behaviour inﬁ nitely more complex and raises a number of opportunities, challenges and questions for educators.

If environments are intelligent, they offer the opportunity of responding to the specifi c needs, preferences and diffi culties of individuals. At the same time, they potentially offer increased fl exibility in that there is the capacity to reshape educational environments in multiple ways at different times to meet the needs of different occupants of the space. Different information can be displayed on walls; different levels of stimulus can be made visible; temperature, air pressure and light levels can be transformed to serve different purposes. The institution can be seen as a constantly changing and evolving environment, rather than a fi xed resource with only limited properties and adaptability. At the same time, schools have historically been places which have been defi ned by exclusion – limiting access to non-teaching adults for example, as a result of security concerns. If institutions know who and who isn’t allowed access then open door policies and greater interactions with other people and places may become possible.

Indicative R&D The UbicompGC is one of the UKCRC Grand Challenges in Computing (www-dse.doc.ic.ac.uk/Projects/UbiNet/GC/index.html) that gives direction to research in this area and looks at all the aspects involved. The Research Consortium in Speckled Computing (www.specknet.org) and the Berkeley Smart Dust project (robotics.eecs.berkeley.edu/~pister/SmartDust) do research in making computing devices that are small enough to be sprinkled around like dust and can form sensor networks anywhere.

A good overview of the research in pervasive computing can be found in Wikipedia (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ubiquitous_computing). The number of places that do research in this area is very large. Wikipedia has a list of academic research centres (en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_ubiquitous_ computing_research_centers). 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 11 12 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies Ever 3.3.1 Thenetwork 3.3 Computinginfrastructure anot – somet compare t ce d note s b l On ro s wh t As a p of remin co It’s S frien ‘TV’ an s l t onger an eft t h h h h h ata e ere is e p u l u op e’s j e’s c d y i e l y y n o l ntries) accesstoa fora ant s o e b o b b h y h d u d u h u ration inaco y t u ase oo er frien e s ca y to meet d h n oto oft o u an d r o h er to ing isconnecte d u h st

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Over the road from the amateur animators (who two weeks later were surprised to start getting royalty payments from their show which had turned out to be an unlikely success) you are trying to ﬁ gure out how the Moon really relates to the Sun and the solar system and everything else. Your friend was asking for an explanation and he couldn’t understand why the sun didn’t go round the Earth – after all, he said, it looks like it does. You are able to pull up a massively complex immersive simulation of the solar system projected on your bedroom wall, and to walk around it and in it, over it and under it, until you understand the dynamic relationships. Next time your friend comes round, you show him the simulation, and the two of you are able to move forward and backwards in time, walking through space, until it all makes sense.

Next door to you, Peter is obsessed with developments in aeronautics and he’s determined to make his own glider. He’s been scouring examples of wing shapes and sketching possible ideas in his CAD programme. The programme takes his rough sketches and reﬁ nes them, making suggestions for improvements based on its massive database of existing wing designs. Connecting to the data centre, Peter is able to experiment, revise and create complex new ideas rapidly and repeatedly – reﬁ ning plans and seeing the results of adaptations within minutes. 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 15 1

6 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies Questions for education The massive processing power of technologies by 2020 allows relationships to develop between users and software which may offer new approaches to teaching and learning. Where complex simulations and experiments were once the property only of those with signiﬁ cant training and access to expensive machinery, now it is possible for anyone to input ideas, sketches, draft notes and, working with the computer, explore the implications of these ideas as simulations. Trial and error, rapid experimentation and evolution of ideas become possible. The challenge for education is to understand how best to harness this increased capacity, how to share ideas and information generated, how to engage with young people’s capacity potentially to act as experimenters, designers and creators.

At the same time, as increased processing power enables digital technologies to become ‘more intelligent’ and to offer bespoke and speciﬁ c information and recommendations in the development of ideas, these technologies come to act more as collaborators than ‘tools’. As such, new concepts of creativity and originality are required and new approaches to the assessment of learning with these tools become necessary.

Indicative R&D This is an area where the industrial research labs play a big role. As to be expected Intel does research in every aspect of this ﬁ eld (www.intel.com/ research). IBM has been doing research in this area for years and dedicated a special issue of its Systems Journal on this topic in 2004 (www.research. ibm.com/journal/sj43-1.html) Hewlett-Packard has a lab dedicated to this area (www.hpl.hp.com/research/issl/projects/index.html), and Cambridge University has the XenoServers project (www.xenoservers.net). 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 17 18 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies Storage 3.3.3 Storage y to capt wh u t t reca b T h h o h ecome at p t ro an u e o canon h l u l ll e ife recor y e g t o l h u l h ife inDVDq u ocation of vis re ana e namesofacq w r persona i ll ly h u

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31 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 32 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies Biome w l h of tec As universe atthespeedoflight.” humans, andultra-highlevelsofintelligencethatexpandoutwardinthe of biologicalandnonbiologicalintelligence,immortalsoftware-based rupture inthefabricofhumanhistory.Theimplicationsincludemerger The Singularity-technologicalchangesorapidandprofounditrepresentsa decades, machineintelligencewillsurpasshumanintelligence,leadingto will bemorelike20,000yearsofprogress(attoday’srate)…Withinafew “We won’texperience100yearsofprogressinthetwentyﬁ Are for ever tac t ifespan h ave moresigniﬁ i e nat ll kl Ku

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d is process.W d irect app citizens,rea rst century-it l y ongevit u , t h r y e h ? erefore, hu l man ication y y ormore offerfor h dy at to 6. So in Comp IBM (Novem De B Forces AffectingE Emerging InformationSociet (vie www Microsoft (200 www science-forecasts (vie microsoft.com/to IBM (Marc E Nic A co Nei K com/gio (vie La Ku Avai pre H www S Vi McGettric ECRIM Be Ne w l l no u oare T(e k on to. Avai uld w l rz siness InformationLt w in ing, Peng d k w oite (2006).E ld wl l rence Er Scientist(Nov2006).Specia erson R(e ictions (vie w a d .i . . e U I,PearsonI(A b d c bl on. Avai b d e ei niversit e e h m.com/gio (vie d 26/02/07) e at: y l l u ange t oitte.com/ geWor , R(2005).T on l ting E k u a y d h A,Bo on bl d ), Mi 2006).IBMG w b rces an u -t lb www e at: er 200 d in e l y 4 h a a h d t d , PEWInternetproject,Imaginingt k w du ). To e- bl u l e ), Zo 26/02/07) h y s Fo ner R(e e yl m AssociatesInc: e tot w e e at: . w h cation. d www b du e R,I d ar orizon.net (vie 26/02/07) H a tp w 4 u tt/c dh h u y orizon program(J cation. Instit ). IBMG d g ar l

e Sing n w w w c.com/Innovation/Ne s2020science (vie h u www . iates P(e d d d kw e e F bb e st 2005).2005BTTec e d ation, Instit d a/ s 2020Science.MicrosoftCorporation.Avai d d l UK : Lon o l ) (200 26/02/07) 26/02/07) ett R,L ive in20 f d u b d d . oc/content/ ul t a uk CRC: S n.org/map (vie u y l l o f InnovationO arit Tec re ( d crc.org. b 4 on. Avai a d ). Gran u l w l u y l H Report:Bri ) ( InnovationO o h isNear:W 1 te fort e rt o yd no w 1 H 0). De u d w 988). Tec te fort in i 26/02/07) J,LovegroveG,Man ll tec l h uk ogies. ERCIMEEIG:Sop u d s d b l w d on. Avai ne 2006).Fina a C g_e er rea /gcresearc h a l e bl h oite To h l e F d no w u w e NJ e at: a h 26/02/07) y t e s/time ll e F l h ll e_to_t l h h d oo u og enges inComp no iant Min en no 26/02/07) t u u l k u t www y a u l re an l l 2.0.IBM:Ne , me t og oo h bl Hu og c u e Internet( h l re (2006).2006-20 h e at: h ine. y k y e To mans Transcen e_f Time d .p .ne 200 inE d l d d Report:AnticipatingF d ia an

ing h s Forecastt u K f (vie w www h tm (vie t 4 no du u scientist.com/c mats d l . IBM:Ne re_0706.p ine (2006-205 er d wl cation: Loo w te u . w uk w K e h e ting Researc u d w l d e ia Antipo (200 Yor ecomm : Lon crc.org. geWor b 26/02/07) e site), d 26/02/07) h k w l d 4 a . Avai e Ne d 1 d Bio Yor ). Gran bl f (vie 6 MapofF on. Avai k k www u e at:researc uk l s Fo ing To 1 nications a is. Avai h l k x ). BT:Ips og l anne t 50Years.Ree . Avai a w /gce h bl d .e . y e u u . Ne C UK d n e at: l l t w on.e 26/02/07) a d du u l h l l /opinion/ bl ar ation: Pa re an a CRC: a a u w cation.p bl bl ll e at: t d w www u du Yor enges 2020. e at: e at: d ic re h vances / d . h

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f 33 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies 34 2020 and beyond: Future scenarios for education in the age of new technologies O’ VISIONS 2020:TransformingE at: eprints.ecs.soton.ac. Revo S Rits www Department ofCommerceTec revie Avai InformationWee Yor UK www www pp35 U Si S Q INTELLIGENT SYSTEMS2 Life Program:Was Internet_2006.p h h u S DepartmentofCommerceTec lb H aron G(2006). a itne CRC, Gran k ara erg db k l to a 1 w lu .ran .information . o J,BirmanA(e uk bl -365. T o w oft y tion 2020,In-Dept l l An K itt R,AntónP, e at: crc.org. n t Nan d , MorrisR,S H .org/p h d eig e sciencean erson J,RainieL(2006).T www h d e Ro d h C

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a .visions2020.gov/reports/Tec w a /gran s/tec y ee h ll ll e a rz ington DC,Avai W,Berners-LeeT(2006). enges inComp b l d k h Societ www w site: 2 H ) (200 .com/ne a l ei h a d o db uk d h bl nica _c w l tec : Comp 1 Ana .e o / e e at: (3) pp96- h 1 l 4 ll 1 l y t N, 26 a on.e h ), l - D,WongA(2006).Ran : Lon ll _reports/2006/RAND_TR303.p 11 no ly h du w U 14 enges/in no ses. Ran s/s www ti -2006, CMPMe H l u cation an du /0 og l h itc l ters Wi d it og 1 no h l on u y /e- y a /Semantic_We o h 1 Comp . InJo ting Researc bl .researc y l 0 w GJ, h A og w 1 e at: e F Artic d . IEEEComp d e d y e ll b ministration Ofﬁ A Corporation:SantaMonica.Avai x H d u /pre Ena u .cfm (vie u TrainingT t d a www rna l u ting, IBMS e.j ministration Ofﬁ ll h re oft W,BeagrieN(2006).Memoriesfor h .i d h bl l h Po d b ictions/2006s oft tm e semantic .pe ia LLC:Man e Peop m.com/jo h l b We ic l h w ?artic d w h _Reviste u y e InternetII.Pe reportTR303:T e e Ro internet.org/p /2020Visions.p ter Societ h d b y ro 26/02/07) site. Avai l stems Jo e ToLiveForever.On ce ofP l u y eID= u a g l d rna h w d Societ ce ofP h f (vie u A .p e asset NY.Avai rve 1 b d l y d 95200003 (vie /sj : Was revisite vance ubl l f (vie a u y w 4 bl .p rna y e d 3- ic Affairs:Was ubl d w Interface(2006)3, d e at: d fs/PIP_F h f (vie w f (vie 1 Internetan h 26/02/07) l d e G Vo . e ington DC.Avai ic Affairs(e Tec h d d tm 26/02/07) . InIEEE l l w w o . l a e l b 4 h e l bl d 3 No. a no a d w u 26/02/07) l bl e at: 26/02/07) t Tec e u l d ogies. e at: re_of_ 26/02/07) d l h d ife: a American h 1 ington. ) (2002). no , l l U a og S bl y e

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