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Cellularline Group

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Cellularline Group Milan, 01 June 2021 Italian Equity Research – Change in View/1Q21 results CELLULARLINE OUTPERFORM Sector: Consumers Price: Eu4.56 - Target: Eu5.30 Tough 1Q as expected, back to growth from 2Q onwards 1Q activity still impacted by restrictive measures, as expected. The 1Q top line was Andrea Randone +39-02-77115.364 €16.6mn, down -17% YoY (-19% vs 1Q19) and broadly in-line with our €16.8mn [email protected] estimate. Organic sales dropped -20%, net of the Worldconnect addition. Sales were Francois Robillard: +39-02-77115.470 down for all divisions, with Red Line segment sales (82% of group) down -14% YoY [email protected] and Black/Blue segments down -12%/-34%. As expected, 1Q activity was hit by tight lockdowns in northern Europe. Despite sales in Italy (55% of group) up +6%, sales in Stock Rating the top 5 EU countries (including Germany and Benelux, 29% of group) were down Rating: From BUY to OUTPERFORM -41% YoY. Target Price (Eu): from 5.50 to 5.30 Margins echo dip in sales, FCF satisfactory. Weaker demand was also the main 2021E 2022E 2023E cause for the drop in margins. The gross margin was down -21% YoY to 39.4% (vs Chg in Adj EPS -14.5% -6.6% -5.6% our est. 41%) from 41.2% in 1Q20, mainly due to lower coverage of fixed costs in COGS and a one-off charge of €-0.2mn (collection of unsold merchandise). Next Event Consequently, adj. EBITDA was negative at €-1.2mn (vs our est. €-0.8mn loss, 1Q20 th 1H21 Results Out September 13 €+0.8mn) also reflecting the inclusion of Worldconnect (€-0.2mn loss). The adj. net CELLULARLINE - 12M Performance loss was €-1.7mn (vs our €-1.5mn) due to lower operating margins. However, cash flow was satisfactory, with positive FCF of €7.6mn beating our €3.2mn forecast, 5.5 mainly thanks to an efficient management of working capital. Indications during the 5.0 Recovery began in 2Q, better pick-up expected in 2H. conference call point to a rebound in sell-out data becoming visible from April and 4.5 continuing throughout 2Q, although a full recovery is seen as more likely to materialise in 2H. The work to relaunch the German business, the worst hit in 1Q, 4.0 carries on as CELL continues to reshuffle its local distribution approach. The performance in Italy was said to remain better, as seen in 1Q. The travel retail 3.5 channel (c.15% of business) is also said to see some recovery, helped by an easy 3.0 comparison base in 2Q. The impact of higher shipping costs is said to be marginal g-20 a-20 o-20 d-20 f-21 a-21 and offset by favourable FX. Efforts to better penetrate the online retail channel continue, on both own and consumer electronic clients’ sites. CELLULARLINE CELLULARLINE Rel. to FTSE All Shares (Reb.) Changes to estimates. We have trimmed our estimates to cautiously reflect a back- end loaded recovery in 2H21. Our new forecasts imply the top line up +25% YoY in Stock Data the last 9 months of 2021, but still -14% below sales for the same period in 2019 (- Reuters code: CELL.MI 16% excl. Worldconnect), with a prudent 19% adj. EBITDA margin in the last 9 Bloomberg code: CELL IM months (vs 17%/26% for the same period in 2020/2019). The change in EPS reflects Performance 1M 3M 12M i) the -16%/-8% reduction in our net income forecast and ii) the correction of our [email protected] Absolute 0.0% 2.9% -7.1% NOSH to include the upcoming conversion of 195k special shares. We re-align our Relative -4.4% -8.1% -45.6% DPS forecasts on a 30% payout. The business slowdown 12M (H/L) 5.38/3.96 Rating to OUTPERFORM from Buy. TP €5.3 from €5.5. continued in 1Q21 as expected, although cash flow remained resilient. 2Q21 should 3M Average Volume (th): 26.49 mark the return to growth for the top line and margins, and the start of the group’s Shareholder Data recovery, with the expected rebound set to be more visible from 2H21. In our view, CELL is still a good play on normalisation of retail conditions. We cut our combined No. of Ord shares (mn): 20 DCF / historical multiple-based TP slightly to €5.3 to reflect the reduction in our Total no. of shares (mn): 22 forecasts. The 16% upside implied by our new TP justifies the change to Mkt Cap Ord (Eu mn): 92 OUTPERFORM. Total Mkt Cap (Eu mn): 92 Key Figures & Ratios 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E Mkt Float - Ord (Eu mn): 56 Sales (Eu mn) 140 105 120 145 157 Mkt Float (in %): 61.0% EBITDA Adj (Eu mn) 33 15 19 26 30 Main Shareholder: Net Profit Adj (Eu mn) 23 5 10 15 17 Private Equity funds 14.0% EPS New Adj (Eu) 1.067 0.242 0.473 0.674 0.799 EPS Old Adj (Eu) 1.051 0.239 0.553 0.721 0.847 Balance Sheet Data DPS (Eu) 0.330 0.000 0.142 0.202 0.240 Book Value (Eu mn): 214 EV/EBITDA Adj 5.5 10.6 7.4 4.9 3.7 BVPS (Eu): 9.78 EV/EBIT Adj 6.3 15.3 8.1 5.4 4.1 P/BV: 0.5 P/E Adj 4.3 18.8 9.7 6.8 5.7 Net Financial Position (Eu mn): -39 Div. Yield 7.2% 0.0% 3.1% 4.4% 5.3% Net Debt/EBITDA Adj 0.7 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.4 Enterprise Value (Eu mn): 139 The reproduction of the information, recommendations and research produced by Intermonte SIM contained herein, and any of its parts, is strictly prohibited. None of the contents of this document may be shared with third parties without Company authorization. Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report Intermonte SIM S.p.A. Milan 20122 (Italy) - Galleria de Cristoforis, 7/8 - phone: +39-02-77115.1 - fax: +39-02-77115.300 New York (US) - Brasil Plural Securities LLC - 545 Madison Av. 8th Floor, NY 10022 –phone: +1 212 388 5600 www.intermonte.it Disclosure time 01/06/2021 07:50:26 CELLULARLINE – Key Figures Profit & Loss (Eu mn) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E Sales 130 140 105 120 145 157 EBITDA 28 30 7 19 26 30 EBIT 19 20 -3 8 16 19 Financial Income (charges) -8 -0 0 -1 -1 -1 Associates & Others -0 0 0 -0 -0 -0 Pre-tax Profit 12 20 -2 7 14 18 Taxes 5 -2 16 -1 -4 -5 Tax rate -45.3% 9.3% 680.2% 19.0% 29.9% 29.0% Minorities & Discontinued Operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Profit 17 18 14 5 10 13 EBITDA Adj 34 33 15 19 26 30 EBIT Adj 31 29 10 17 24 27 Net Profit Adj 23 23 5 10 15 17 Per Share Data (Eu) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Average 22 22 22 22 22 22 Total Shares Outstanding (mn) - Year End 22 22 22 22 22 22 EPS f.d 0.772 0.833 0.636 0.246 0.447 0.572 EPS Adj f.d 1.055 1.067 0.242 0.473 0.674 0.799 BVPS f.d 8.888 9.261 9.532 9.778 10.094 10.479 Dividend per Share ORD 0.300 0.330 0.000 0.142 0.202 0.240 Dividend per Share SAV 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 0.000 Dividend Payout Ratio (%) 28.4% 30.9% 0.0% 30.0% 30.0% 30.0% Cash Flow (Eu mn) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E Gross Cash Flow 23 27 9 13 20 23 Change in NWC -1 -7 2 0 -2 -0 Capital Expenditure -2 -3 -4 -4 -4 -4 Other Cash Items Free Cash Flow (FCF) 20 17 7 10 14 19 Acquisitions, Divestments & Other Items 26 -2 -21 -5 0 0 Dividends 0 -6 -7 0 -3 -4 Equity Financing/Buy-back 2 -3 0 0 0 0 Change in Net Financial Position 41 -0 -24 10 11 15 Balance Sheet (Eu mn) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E Total Fixed Assets 181 182 193 187 180 174 Net Working Capital 62 70 69 69 71 72 Long term Liabilities -24 -24 -5 -5 -5 -5 Net Capital Employed 219 227 258 251 247 240 Net Cash (Debt) -25 -25 -49 -39 -28 -12 Group Equity 194 203 208 214 221 229 Minorities 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Equity 194 203 208 214 221 229 Enterprise Value (Eu mn) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E Average Mkt Cap 197 157 111 100 100 100 [email protected] Adjustments (Associate & Minorities) 0 0 0 0 0 0 Net Cash (Debt) -25 -25 -49 -39 -28 -12 Enterprise Value 221 182 160 139 127 112 Ratios (%) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E EBITDA Adj Margin 26.1% 23.5% 14.4% 15.5% 18.0% 19.0% EBIT Adj Margin 23.9% 20.4% 10.0% 14.3% 16.2% 17.3% Gearing - Debt/Equity 12.6% 12.1% 23.5% 18.3% 12.5% 5.4% Interest Cover on EBIT 2.5 66.7 13.2 5.9 12.0 14.9 Net Debt/EBITDA Adj 0.7 0.7 3.2 2.1 1.1 0.4 ROACE* 9.6% 9.1% -1.4% 3.3% 6.3% 7.9% ROE* 15.4% 11.8% 2.6% 4.9% 6.8% 7.8% EV/CE 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.5 EV/Sales 1.7 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.9 0.7 EV/EBITDA Adj 6.5 5.5 10.6 7.4 4.9 3.7 EV/EBIT Adj 7.1 6.3 15.3 8.1 5.4 4.1 Free Cash Flow Yield 21.4% 18.4% 8.0% 10.7% 15.5% 21.0% Growth Rates (%) 2018A 2019A 2020A 2021E 2022E 2023E Sales -7.0% 8.2% -25.5% 14.9% 20.6% 8.6% EBITDA Adj -14.2% -2.5% -54.3% 23.5% 40.1% 14.4% EBIT Adj -15.1% -7.5% -63.6% 64.1% 37.4% 16.0% Net Profit Adj -28.8% 7.9% -23.7% -61.3% 81.9% 28.1% EPS Adj -2.6% 1.2% -77.3% 95.1% 42.6% 18.6% DPS nm 10.0% nm nm 42.6% 18.6% *Excluding extraordinary items Source: Intermonte SIM estimates 2 Disclosure time 01/06/2021 07:50:26 1Q21 Results snapshot Cellularline – 1Q21 results snapshot EUR mn 1Q19A 1Q20A 1Q21A YoY 1Q vs 1Q19 1Q21E AvE 1Q Red Line 18.0 15.9 13.6 (14.3%) (24.3%) 13.9 (2%) Black Line 1.6 1.5 1.2 (16.2%) (21.5%) 1.3 (8%) Blue Line 1.2 2.6 1.7 (32.3%) 50.0% 1.6 11% Revenues 20.6 20.0 16.6 (17.0%) (19.4%) 16.8 (1%) Gross Margin 9.1 8.3 6.6 (20.6%) (27.9%) 6.9 (5%) Margin 44.1% 41.2% 39.4% 41.0% Adj.
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