Confronting the Bomb Confronting the Bomb Pakistani and Indian Scientists Speak Out Edited by PERVEZ HOODBHOY Preface by JOHN POLYANI Nobel Prize in Chemistry, 1986 Oxford University Press is a department of the University of Oxford. It furthers the University’s objective of excellence in research, scholarship, and education by publishing worldwide in Oxford New York Auckland Cape Town Dar es Salaam Hong Kong Karachi Kuala Lumpur Madrid Melbourne Mexico City Nairobi New Delhi Shanghai Taipei Toronto With offices in Argentina Austria Brazil Chile Czech Republic France Greece Guatemala Hungary Italy Japan Poland Portugal Singapore South Korea Switzerland Turkey Ukraine Vietnam Oxford is a registered trademark of Oxford University Press in the UK and in certain other countries Published in Pakistan by Oxford University Press © Oxford University Press 2013 The moral rights of the author have been asserted Database right Oxford University Press (maker) First published 2013 All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, translated, stored in a retrieval system, or transmitted, in any form or by any means, without the prior permission in writing of Oxford University Press. Enquiries concerning reproduction should be sent to Oxford University Press at the address below. You must not circulate this work in any other form and you must impose this same condition on any acquirer. ISBN 978-0-19-906833-3 Typeset in ITC Clearface Printed in Pakistan by ________________, Karachi. Published by Ameena Saiyid, Oxford University Press No. 38, Sector 15, Korangi Industrial Area, PO Box 8214, Karachi-74900, Pakistan. Contents Contributors viii Poem ix Author Biographies xi Acknowledgements xv Preface xvii John Polyani Introduction xxi Pervez Hoodbhoy 1. Scientists and India’s Nuclear Bomb 1 M.V. Ramana 2. The Coming of the Atomic Age to Pakistan 38 Zia Mian 3. Pakistan: Climbing the Nuclear Ladder 68 Pervez Hoodbhoy 4. Pakistan: Understanding the ‘World’s Fastest Growing Arsenal’ 90 Pervez Hoodbhoy 5. Kashmir: From Nuclear Flashpoint to South Asia’s Bridge of Peace? 117 Pervez Hoodbhoy 6. Nationalism and the Bomb 134 Pervez Hoodbhoy 7. Iran, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and the ‘Islamic Bomb’ 151 Pervez Hoodbhoy vi Contents 8. Post bin Laden: The Safety and Security of Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal 168 Pervez Hoodbhoy 9. Commanding and Controlling Nuclear Weapons 204 Zia Mian 10. The Infeasibility of Early Warning 237 Zia Mian, R. Rajaraman, and M.V. Ramana 11. Pakistan’s Battlefield Use of Nuclear Weapons 253 Zia Mian and A.H. Nayyar 12. What Nuclear War Could Do to South Asia 267 Matthew McKinzie, Zia Mian, A.H. Nayyar, and M.V. Ramana 13. Pakistan’s Nuclear Diplomacy and the Fissile 277 Material Cut-off Treaty Zia Mian and A.H. Nayyar 14. Speculations on the Future of Nuclear South Asia 295 Pervez Hoodbhoy and Zia Mian 15. America, Global Domination, and Global Disarmament 308 Pervez Hoodbhoy and Zia Mian 16. Nuclear Electricity is Not the Answer for Pakistan 326 Pervez Hoodbhoy 17. Nuclear Electricity is Not the Answer for India 348 Suvrat Raju Tables 1. Pakistani Missile Force 102 2. Total Military and Nuclear Weapons Spending 2010–2011 112 3. Estimated Duration of some Plausible South Asian Missile Flights 240 4. Estimated Nuclear Casualties for each of 10 Large Indian and Pakistani Cities 275 5. Energy Profile of Pakistan 2011 327 6. PAEC’s projections for Nuclear Electricity Generating Capacity 328 Graphs 1. Growth of Pakistan’s Nuclear Arsenal 92 2. Record of the Hiroshima A-Bomb War Disaster, Hiroshima, 1971, Vol. I. 274 Acronyms 383 Index 387 Contributors Hoodbhoy, Pervez McKinzie, Matthew Mian, Zia Nayyar, Abdul Hameed Rajaraman, R. Raju, Suvrat Ramana, M.V. poem Explode, explode, explode the bomb, The bomb makes Bharat great; Nor hunger, nor thirst shall then survive, And hailed shall be the Hindu state. At which bespoke a roadside wag- ‘But didn’t Kalam set up the bomb?’ Ah yes, but you do not seem to know That Kamal was his Vedic name. Then did Pokharan shudder anew, Death rolled beneath the sand; Blessed be the radio-active earth, Where a temple deserves to stand. Meanwhile, the world misreads the Buddha, Who forbade not deterrence, war; Go write clearly the Dhammapada, With ink from the Sangh Parivar. Just then from across the ‘enemy’ lines A thunderous noise was heard; Chagai six mocked the Pokharan five, The mouse the big cat dared. Pricked was the pompous balloon of pride, Saffron thinned out to the pale; Voices rose from everywhere, Cut short this bloody tale. x poem The toiling ‘commons’, here and there, The macho sparring cursed; What fraud this Hindu–Muslim card, Will either bomb slake our thirst? Know that the bomb no religion knows, No nation, no border, no line, It incinerates with equal heat The Hindu and Muslim Divine. The bomb begets no security, Security is in trust alone, In peace, awareness, brotherhood, And a fair life for everyone. Let go this blasted madness then, Unite all bordered land; If security indeed is what you seek, Go shake the so-called enemy’s hand. — Badri Raina ‘Modest Proposal And Other Rhymes’ for the Times Author Biographies • Pervez Amirali Hoodbhoy has taught at the department of physics at Quaid-e-Azam University since 1973, and now also teaches at the School of Science and Engineering (LUMS). He received a PhD in nuclear physics from Massachusetts Institute of Tech nology (MIT), as well as degrees in mathematics, electrical engineering, and physics from MIT. He was awarded the Abdus Salam Prize for Mathematics; the Baker Award for Electronics; and the UNESCO Kalinga Prize for the popularization of science. His research interests lie in theoretical high-energy physics. He was a Council member of Pugwash, and is a sponsor of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. A strong advocate of the scientific method, he authored: Islam and Science: Religious Orthodoxy and the Battle for Rationality. As producer and presenter, he made several documentary series for Pakistan Television aimed at popularizing science as well as for analyzing the Pakistani education system. Hoodbhoy heads Mashal, a book publishing organization in Lahore focusing on modern thought and human rights. • Mathew McKinzie is a senior scientist at the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC) in Washington, DC. He works in its nuclear program which seeks elimination of nuclear weapons left over from the Cold War era. In addition, he works in the NRDC’s lands and wildlife program on wilderness and renewable energy issues. McKinzie earned his bachelor’s degree in physics from Bard College, and doctorate in experimental nuclear physics from the University of Pennsylvania. • Zia Mian directs the Project on Peace and Security in South Asia at Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security. His research interests include nuclear weapons and nuclear xii Author Biographies energy policy in South Asia, and issues of nuclear disarmament and peace. Earlier, he taught at the Yale University and the Quaid- e-Azam University, Islamabad. He worked at the Union of Concerned Scientists, Cambridge (Mass.) and was a Fellow at the Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad. Mian is Editor of Science & Global Security, an international journal for peer-reviewed scientific and technical studies relating to arms control, disarmament and non-proliferation policy. In addition to his scholarly articles, he is the editor of several books and has helped make two documentary films on peace and security in South Asia. He holds a PhD in physics from the University of Newcastle upon Tyne. • Abdul Hameed Nayyar is visiting professor at the School of Science and Engineering (LUMS), Lahore. He received his PhD in solid state physics from Imperial College London in 1973 and served on the faculty of the Quaid-e-Azam University, Islamabad, from 1973 until 2005. Subsequently, he worked as senior research fellow at Sustainable Development Policy Institute, Islamabad, as executive director of Developments in Literacy, and headed the Ali Institute for Education, Lahore. Since 1998, he has been associated with Princeton University’s Program on Science and Global Security as a visiting research scientist, and is a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials. In 2010, he was awarded the Joseph A. Burton Forum Award by the American Physical Society for contributions to society. • John Charles Polyani, won the Nobel Prize in Chemistry in 1986. He has received numerous other prestigious professional awards in chemistry, including the Wolf Prize in Chemistry and the Gerhard Herzberg Canada Gold Medal for Science and Engineering. A Canadian citizen, he teaches at the University of Toronto and remains an active researcher in his field. Polyani was pictured on a Canada Post first class postage stamp on 3 October 2011, issued to salute the International Year of Chemistry. Since Author Biographies xiii the 1950s, he has been involved in matters concerning nuclear weapons. Polyani founded Canada’s Pugwash group in 1960, and served as its chairman until 1978. • M.V. Ramana has a joint appointment with the Nuclear Futures Laboratory and the Program on Science and Global Security at Princeton University, U.S.A. After obtaining his PhD in Physics from Boston University in 1994, he worked as a post-doctoral fellow at the Department of Physics, University of Toronto, and the Centre for International Studies, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. He is the author of The Power of Promise: Examining Nuclear Energy in India (forthcoming from Viking Penguin). Before moving to Princeton University, he was a senior fellow at the Centre for Inter-disciplinary Studies in Environment and Development in Bangalore. He is also on the national Coordinating Committee of the Coalition for Nuclear Disarmament and Peace (India); a member of the International Panel on Fissile Materials; and serves on the board of the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.