Discussion Guide Town of Wilton September 9, 2020
Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. Contents
Executive Summary
Pension Plan Performance Summary
OPEB Performance Summary
Aon Medium Term Views
Manager Searches
Legal Consulting & Compliance Update
Appendix
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 2 Executive Summary
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 3 Market Highlights
SHORT TERM RETURNS Second Quarter 2020 One-Year AS OF 06/30/2020
30.0% 25.4% 25.1% 25.0% 20.5% 18.1% 20.0% 14.9% 13.2% 15.0% 11.1% 10.2% 7.5% 8.7% 10.0% 5.1% 2.9% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% -5.0% -3.4% -10.0% -6.6% -5.1% -15.0% -20.0% -17.4% S&P 500 Russell 2000 MSCI EAFE MSCI Emerging Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Markets Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Commodity Index Source: Russell, MSCI, Bloomberg Barclays, Bloomberg Aggregate Long Gov't Long Credit High Yield MSCI Indices show net total returns throughout this report. All other indices show gross total returns..
LONG TERM ANNUALIZED RETURNS Five-Year Ten-Year AS OF 06/30/2020 20.0% 14.0% 15.0% 10.7% 10.5% 9.2% 10.0% 7.7% 8.5% 7.8% 5.7% 6.7% 4.3% 4.3% 4.8% 3.3% 3.8% 5.0% 2.1% 2.9%
0.0%
-5.0% -5.8% -10.0% -7.7% S&P 500 Russell 2000 MSCI EAFE MSCI Emerging Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Markets Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Commodity Index Source: Russell, MSCI, Bloomberg Barclays, Bloomberg Aggregate Long Gov't Long Credit High Yield
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 4 Market Highlights
Returns of the Major Capital Markets Period Ending 06/30/2020
1 1 1 Second Quarter YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Equity MSCI All Country World IMI 19.83% -7.06% 1.17% 5.55% 6.11% 9.10% MSCI All Country World 19.22% -6.25% 2.11% 6.14% 6.46% 9.16% Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market 22.09% -3.50% 6.41% 9.97% 9.97% 13.68% Russell 3000 22.03% -3.48% 6.53% 10.04% 10.03% 13.72% S&P 500 20.54% -3.08% 7.51% 10.73% 10.73% 13.99% Russell 2000 25.42% -12.98% -6.63% 2.01% 4.29% 10.50% MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. IMI 16.96% -11.24% -4.74% 0.96% 2.30% 5.11% MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. 16.12% -11.00% -4.80% 1.13% 2.26% 4.97% MSCI EAFE 14.88% -11.34% -5.13% 0.81% 2.05% 5.73% MSCI EAFE (Local Currency) 12.60% -10.53% -4.24% 1.26% 2.63% 6.86% MSCI Emerging Markets 18.08% -9.78% -3.39% 1.90% 2.86% 3.27% Fixed Income Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate 3.32% 2.98% 4.22% 3.79% 3.56% 2.81% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate 2.90% 6.14% 8.74% 5.32% 4.30% 3.82% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Long Gov't 0.28% 20.97% 25.14% 11.96% 9.21% 7.71% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Long Credit 11.08% 5.92% 13.19% 8.70% 8.51% 7.77% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Long Gov't/Credit 6.23% 12.82% 18.91% 10.32% 8.98% 7.84% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. TIPS 4.24% 6.01% 8.28% 5.05% 3.75% 3.52% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. High Yield 10.18% -3.80% 0.03% 3.33% 4.79% 6.68% Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury ex U.S. 2.39% 0.82% 0.87% 2.82% 3.23% 1.85% JP Morgan EMBI Global (Emerging Markets) 11.21% -1.87% 1.52% 3.31% 5.12% 5.82% Commodities Bloomberg Commodity Index 5.08% -19.40% -17.38% -6.14% -7.69% -5.82% Goldman Sachs Commodity Index 10.47% -36.31% -33.90% -8.71% -12.54% -8.53% Hedge Funds 2 HFRI Fund-Weighted Composite 9.08% -3.43% -0.54% 2.13% 2.33% 3.72% 2 HFRI Fund of Funds 7.48% -1.97% 0.09% 2.12% 1.41% 2.75% Real Estate NAREIT U.S. Equity REITS 11.82% -18.71% -13.04% 0.03% 4.06% 9.05% NCREIF NFI - ODCE -1.55% 2.23% 5.66% 7.31% 10.80% FTSE Global Core Infrastructure Index 8.89% -10.59% -4.61% 5.49% 7.01% 9.75% Private Equity 3 Burgiss Private iQ Global Private Equity 15.31% 14.78% 12.30% 13.19%
MSCI Indices show net total returns throughout this report. All other indices show gross total returns. 1 Periods are annualized. 2 Latest 5 months of HFR data are estimated by HFR and may change in the future. 3 Burgiss Private iQ Global Private Equity data is as at Dec 31, 2019
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 5 Pension Plan Performance Summary
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 6 Total Plan Asset Summary
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 7 Total Plan Performance Summary
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 8 Asset Allocation as of June 30, 2020
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 9 Pension Total Fund Attribution: 1 Quarter as of June 30, 2020
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 10 Plan Sponsor Peer Group Analysis As of June 30, 2020
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 11 Performance as of June 30, 2020
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 12 Performance as of June 30, 2020
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 13 Performance as of June 30, 2020
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 14 OPEB Performance as of June 30, 2020
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 15 Total Plan Asset Summary
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 16 Total Plan Performance Summary
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 17 Asset Allocation as of June 30, 2020
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 18 OPEB Total Fund Attribution: 1 Quarter as of June 30, 2020
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 19 Performance as of June 30, 2020
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 20 Performance as of June 30, 2020
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 21 Aon Medium Term Views
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 22 One page summary
Cross Asset Class Views
The opportunity from cheaper We still favor uncorrelated sources of valuations has been fleeting and returns from a risk-mitigation view, but we are not wholesale buyers of the real-estate opportunity has risk diminished Coronavirus risks We prefer better quality in dominate leaving us credit but managers will neutral on the find good opportunities in Equity Regions Credit regions this arena
Equity Styles
Style views have become Core Fixed Income more defensive Potential returns are less Alternatives attractive and our medium- term outlook has softened
Currencies versus USD
Non-correlated alternatives Safe haven flows expected generally preferred to keep the USD supported in the near-term
Please refer to the end of the document for interpretation guidelines
Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 23 Equities: Medium-term outlook for value stocks is not compelling
Value versus growth valuation spread at multi-decade high ▪ We think the prospects for value stock outperformance look limited. The Price to sales ratio of MSCI World Value div