Discussion Guide Town of Wilton September 9, 2020
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Discussion Guide Town of Wilton September 9, 2020 Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. Contents Executive Summary Pension Plan Performance Summary OPEB Performance Summary Aon Medium Term Views Manager Searches Legal Consulting & Compliance Update Appendix Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 2 Executive Summary Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 3 Market Highlights SHORT TERM RETURNS Second Quarter 2020 One-Year AS OF 06/30/2020 30.0% 25.4% 25.1% 25.0% 20.5% 18.1% 20.0% 14.9% 13.2% 15.0% 11.1% 10.2% 7.5% 8.7% 10.0% 5.1% 2.9% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% -5.0% -3.4% -10.0% -6.6% -5.1% -15.0% -20.0% -17.4% S&P 500 Russell 2000 MSCI EAFE MSCI Emerging Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Markets Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Commodity Index Source: Russell, MSCI, Bloomberg Barclays, Bloomberg Aggregate Long Gov't Long Credit High Yield MSCI Indices show net total returns throughout this report. All other indices show gross total returns.. LONG TERM ANNUALIZED RETURNS Five-Year Ten-Year AS OF 06/30/2020 20.0% 14.0% 15.0% 10.7% 10.5% 9.2% 10.0% 7.7% 8.5% 7.8% 5.7% 6.7% 4.3% 4.3% 4.8% 3.3% 3.8% 5.0% 2.1% 2.9% 0.0% -5.0% -5.8% -10.0% -7.7% S&P 500 Russell 2000 MSCI EAFE MSCI Emerging Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Bloomberg Markets Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Barclays U.S. Commodity Index Source: Russell, MSCI, Bloomberg Barclays, Bloomberg Aggregate Long Gov't Long Credit High Yield Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 4 Market Highlights Returns of the Major Capital Markets Period Ending 06/30/2020 1 1 1 Second Quarter YTD 1-Year 3-Year 5-Year 10-Year Equity MSCI All Country World IMI 19.83% -7.06% 1.17% 5.55% 6.11% 9.10% MSCI All Country World 19.22% -6.25% 2.11% 6.14% 6.46% 9.16% Dow Jones U.S. Total Stock Market 22.09% -3.50% 6.41% 9.97% 9.97% 13.68% Russell 3000 22.03% -3.48% 6.53% 10.04% 10.03% 13.72% S&P 500 20.54% -3.08% 7.51% 10.73% 10.73% 13.99% Russell 2000 25.42% -12.98% -6.63% 2.01% 4.29% 10.50% MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. IMI 16.96% -11.24% -4.74% 0.96% 2.30% 5.11% MSCI All Country World ex-U.S. 16.12% -11.00% -4.80% 1.13% 2.26% 4.97% MSCI EAFE 14.88% -11.34% -5.13% 0.81% 2.05% 5.73% MSCI EAFE (Local Currency) 12.60% -10.53% -4.24% 1.26% 2.63% 6.86% MSCI Emerging Markets 18.08% -9.78% -3.39% 1.90% 2.86% 3.27% Fixed Income Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate 3.32% 2.98% 4.22% 3.79% 3.56% 2.81% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Aggregate 2.90% 6.14% 8.74% 5.32% 4.30% 3.82% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Long Gov't 0.28% 20.97% 25.14% 11.96% 9.21% 7.71% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Long Credit 11.08% 5.92% 13.19% 8.70% 8.51% 7.77% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Long Gov't/Credit 6.23% 12.82% 18.91% 10.32% 8.98% 7.84% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. TIPS 4.24% 6.01% 8.28% 5.05% 3.75% 3.52% Bloomberg Barclays U.S. High Yield 10.18% -3.80% 0.03% 3.33% 4.79% 6.68% Bloomberg Barclays Global Treasury ex U.S. 2.39% 0.82% 0.87% 2.82% 3.23% 1.85% JP Morgan EMBI Global (Emerging Markets) 11.21% -1.87% 1.52% 3.31% 5.12% 5.82% Commodities Bloomberg Commodity Index 5.08% -19.40% -17.38% -6.14% -7.69% -5.82% Goldman Sachs Commodity Index 10.47% -36.31% -33.90% -8.71% -12.54% -8.53% Hedge Funds 2 HFRI Fund-Weighted Composite 9.08% -3.43% -0.54% 2.13% 2.33% 3.72% 2 HFRI Fund of Funds 7.48% -1.97% 0.09% 2.12% 1.41% 2.75% Real Estate NAREIT U.S. Equity REITS 11.82% -18.71% -13.04% 0.03% 4.06% 9.05% NCREIF NFI - ODCE -1.55% 2.23% 5.66% 7.31% 10.80% FTSE Global Core Infrastructure Index 8.89% -10.59% -4.61% 5.49% 7.01% 9.75% Private Equity 3 Burgiss Private iQ Global Private Equity 15.31% 14.78% 12.30% 13.19% MSCI Indices show net total returns throughout this report. All other indices show gross total returns. 1 Periods are annualized. 2 Latest 5 months of HFR data are estimated by HFR and may change in the future. 3 Burgiss Private iQ Global Private Equity data is as at Dec 31, 2019 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 5 Pension Plan Performance Summary Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 6 Total Plan Asset Summary Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 7 Total Plan Performance Summary Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 8 Asset Allocation as of June 30, 2020 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 9 Pension Total Fund Attribution: 1 Quarter as of June 30, 2020 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 10 Plan Sponsor Peer Group Analysis As of June 30, 2020 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 11 Performance as of June 30, 2020 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 12 Performance as of June 30, 2020 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 13 Performance as of June 30, 2020 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 14 OPEB Performance as of June 30, 2020 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 15 Total Plan Asset Summary Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 16 Total Plan Performance Summary Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 17 Asset Allocation as of June 30, 2020 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 18 OPEB Total Fund Attribution: 1 Quarter as of June 30, 2020 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 19 Performance as of June 30, 2020 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 20 Performance as of June 30, 2020 Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 21 Aon Medium Term Views Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 22 One page summary Cross Asset Class Views The opportunity from cheaper We still favor uncorrelated sources of valuations has been fleeting and returns from a risk-mitigation view, but we are not wholesale buyers of the real-estate opportunity has risk diminished Coronavirus risks We prefer better quality in dominate leaving us credit but managers will neutral on the find good opportunities in Equity Regions Credit regions this arena Equity Styles Style views have become Core Fixed Income more defensive Potential returns are less Alternatives attractive and our medium- term outlook has softened Currencies versus USD Non-correlated alternatives Safe haven flows expected generally preferred to keep the USD supported in the near-term Please refer to the end of the document for interpretation guidelines Proprietary & Confidential Inv estment advice and consulting services provided by Aon Investments USA Inc. 23 Equities: Medium-term outlook for value stocks is not compelling Value versus growth valuation spread at multi-decade high ▪ We think the prospects for value stock outperformance look limited. The Price to sales ratio of MSCI World Value divided by Growth conditions that we see needing to be met for better returns are a strong economic recovery, a steeper yield curve and/or a fall-back in technology 0.80 stocks. Given the risk of further virus waves and the mounting economic 0.75 costs, we are not optimistic for economic strength, tighter monetary policy or 0.70 substantially higher interest rates in the coming months. 0.65 ▪ Our w ork reveals that the cheapest stocks by price to book value have 0.60 historically had much more cyclical profit margins than the most expensive 0.55 stocks, which tend to be classified as growth stocks. Much of this stems from 0.50 the sectors that dominate value (mainly financials) and those that dominate 0.45 grow th (mainly technology). 0.40 ▪ By contrast, it is clear that the valuation gap betw een growth and value stocks 0.35 Value cheaper than Growth is especially large. This is not enough to trigger a reversal on its own, of 0.30 course.