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2 The RIPON FORUM THE RIPON FORUM October 1995 Volume XXX, No.~ 4

7 Dark,, Horizon. ,· ' ~, ·The 'Federal Government Faces a Fiscal Meltdawn Within the First Decade of the New Millenium: Boomers Wi1l Find Their Entitlements Piggy Bank Plundered and Xers Will Be Enslaved to Confiscatory Taxes. Is it Too Late for a Politically Feasible Way Out? By James Ridge

11 FORUM Readers Survey Riponites Back Specter; Prefer Pawell

14 The School for Statesmen How North Carolina Grooms Its Best for Elected Leadership By Walter DeVries and Thad Beyle

18 Why Bureaucracy Fails Ruling Elites Are Drifting Away From the Real World By James Pinkerton

22 Bring On the Smoked-Filled Room A Veteran Political Consultant Looks at the Calendar and Rules and Concludes We Are Heading for a Brokered Convention By Paul Wilson and Steve Grand

DEl'r\Jffl\l[N IF

4 Editorial-Reveille for the General 5 Capital Comix by Jeff MacNelly 6 Under the Big Tent by Michael Dubke 10 The Analyst by Christine Matthews 13 The Pulse-Stir 25 Research &: Reviews Colin Powell's My American Journey Reviewed by Steven E. Ambrose 28 Beyond the Beltway 30 Washington Notes &: Quotes

3 October 1995 Reveille for the General o many to choose from; so few to rec­ die class. He says what he means and ommend. does what he promises-which makes S The current GOP presidential him the most frightening man in America field resembles nothing so much as a K­ today. Mart blue-light special: lots of knockoffs An electrifying speaker spouting Eofml( of yesterday's rage, nothing much innov­ hellfire and brimstone, Alan Keyes IM\•iJ Bi.JJer ative or appealing, just shopworp ~teri­ should start his own congregation: First al, gaudy and ill-conceived. A!thin stand Righteous Church of the Divinely Pl.Ot>LK.:llPN parish­ of presidential timber. Sisyphus and the Legislated Truth. One of his first l..Lirl ')~rd Seven Dwarves. ioners would be David Duke. Let's start with rock-roller Bob Finally, there's our own Arlen F. f]ITQH.1,.1 !!Qt\ tU> Dole, a three-time also-ran in national Specter, fearlessly espousing what most M och."lcl Duhke politics. The lunatic fringe that seems to Americans want-an apostasy to the rest Bill Fn.-nzcl surface only on primary day and of this crowd. A capable man who finds it l'~l'r Smith Halloween night accuses the Senate impossible to be endearing, he was a Majority Leader of being a moderate, see­ champion to women's groups-until he o;TJ,llrig/11199r; ing as he's supported the conservative ran roughshod over Anita Hill (their cause l'!f Tiit' R.i~ll 5'.>I; id1;, coalition in the Senate only 95 percent of celebre) on national TV. ..\Jl Risht:. .Rt'S<'fV1•a the time through the 1990s. Duly penitent, Not that any one of these men Dole recently returned the solicited dona­ wouldn't be an improvement over the Q11t' Yetrr ~rll1$n/ptwnr tion of a fiscally conservative/soberly gay current occupant of the White House, a SW.Uf)'fi:ip md " 11Jiuils: Republican group, declaring he did not morally bankrupt opportunist of no real SJiHJf1 for: m~tit.11tw11- agree with their agenda. Meanwhile, he political conviction. But Republicans­ $W.fHI "r .;tudl!11IJC clings to donations from Time-Wamer, a indeed, all Americans-deserve better: stranglehold company he has suggested undermines someone who can break the ~.(.··· d ctP.S:Y ;-<~: • I t.f 'Ill the values of America for a fast buck. of lobbies and partisan gamesmen who Washingt.o1j, D.C. '1M Then there's Phil Gramm to con­ keep the federal government from serv­ 1tMihm1a1 1Milit::; otfJrn sider. There's the positive side-some­ ing the best interests of the nation at large. where. And a negative side, which we'll Is Gen. Colin Powell that man? PostmlfskY, lk'rtfi 11ciil1·i,,,.·· refrain from perusing in the interest of Or are we just projecting off his empty dttllf.~~ to: tree conservation. screen, wanting what we seemingly can't n,1.· Riptm ~111 Pete Wilson? His opponent last have? His just-published memoir [see HOJ CapiJDI Ctntrt. J\i I:. year-a charitable woman-called him "a review on page 25] suggests he may Suite 300 weasel," raising nary a ripple of com­ indeed be the Ike-like father figure who Wa pJ1m\!tJI,,. TJ.C lfltJ(ll ment, though many suspected his true can bring government back to the people: species was more cold-blooded. an efficient manager and aspiring leader, The K1pt>r1 forum Lamar Alexander looked promis­ a capable custodian of popular trust and rJSN 0035.$26) Powell who emerges here is ing, until he hired consultants off of Jesse support. The ll!> publr*ll bHn._VIJH~ -mouthed panderer, but a firm Helms and Ollie North and became a not a mush 1111 The R11J<"Hi Svrirty born-again reactionary. Then there's the believer in individual responsibility, fiscal and social tolerance. His moder­ matter of his getting rich in the gover­ restraint Tht· Ripon Sac.1t."lty is 1~ stands on such hot-button issues as nor's mansion while insisting on a ate n.~ and pt>hcy abortion, gun control, school prayer Tennessee prison system that made the ~--ga~. Jt if viewpoint that is too Bastille look like the Trump Plaza. reflect a mainstream 1 in a politician's rush to ~temlm Richard Lugar is well-versed on often ignored i.fw•!!Jtmg!on, DC., witli radical activists or special interests. foreign affairs and a moral, reasonable please AsBocrtll8 member:; backing Colin Powell? So ~«htmal man-who somehow thinks its morally Are we rl1toughoul lhe Unil.ed Slwfrs there is little to back, other than a book reasonable to replace a progressive feder­ far Rzpott is supporh>A by tour. We are urging the General to throw al income tax with a horribly regressive dmpl.er dues, i1ulroidu4I his helmet into the ring; then we'll make national sales tax. contnbutiens, llnJ "WDemis.•· our judgment, along with the rest of forcefully from ils p11bliastlm11'. expounds his consistent nativist/protec­ America. tionist/isolationist/moralist views, and is Hopefully, he will afford us that striking a chord with the disaffected mid- opportunity.

4 The RIPON FORUM ©oMLJx ------BY JEFF MACNELLY----

ITS ST!U. ABIG QUE:STIOH MARK ATllllS~, tWL OR.Ji'SSIBl.Y ITS JUST ACOAi~ .

October 1995 5 Media Motives and-with the help of other fiscally Honor Roll of Abolitionists conservative and socially tolerant What is it with the media lately? Every mainstreamers-we aim to throw open The Ripon Society and the Freedom political story from Bob, Dole~· 1check the flaps of the GOP's Big Tent and Republicans honored Daniel cashing problems. to 's invite more Americans to join us. O'Connell, the ''Liberator" of Ireland's former Gov. Tom indiscretions to Catholics, by present~g his great, has Kean's non-run for a Senate seat Murphy vs. Wilson great grandson with a copy of the pi;ompted journalists recently to dis­ Honor Roll of Abolitionists during the and defame the cen­ Michael Murphy, Ripon National miss, denigrate Ripan Educational Fund's faction of the Republican Party. Governing Board member and a trist TransAtlantic Conference in Dublin, We at the Ripon Society can not figure Massachusetts Republican state com~ Ireland. Daniel O'Connell's name out what is _going on here. Nationally, mitteeman, gave California Governor appears on the ''Honor Roll." our fundraising is up, our membership and presidential hopeful Pete Wilson Bill Clinger (R-PA), Chairman numbers are climbing and there is a food for thought at the Middlesex of the Ripon Educational Fund, and new sense of cooperation within the Oub' s annual Lincoln Dinner. York Chapter President Bill moderate movement that hasn't been The Boston Herald explains: New the Freedom seen since the 1960s. So what is-this Lithgow, representing Roll consistent doomsday reporting all Republicans, presented the Honor , in the about? to Professor.Maurice O'Connell Basically, the media is bored presence of Brendan P. Scully, Irish with the two-party system. Their commissioner of public works. The appetites were whet by Perot in 1992 Honor Roll will be displayed in and they are desperate for a perma­ Derryname House, the ancestral home nent thir

6 The RIPON FORUM D I\ R I( H 0 lt I z 0 N The Federal Government faces a fiscal meltdown within the first' decade of the new millenium: Boomers will find their'entitlements piggy bank plundered and Xers will be enslaved to confiscatory taxes. Is it f';'P .,late for a politically feasible way out?

BY JAMES RIDGE They are essentially on auto pilot, Social Security. growing out of control and gobbling Because they have taken f you're concerned that the threat of up more and more of our tax revenues Social Security - our largest govern­ a so-called train wreck may thwart each year. ment expenditure- "off the table" in I plans to balance the budget by The phenomenal growth of the current budget debate, Congress 2002, you have every right to be. The these programs, fueled by our rapidly and the White House have been forced threat is real. But the train you should aging society, could not have been to contend with much larger cuts to be watching most closely won't be car­ imagined by their creators. In 1963, other popular programs that benefit rying vetoed appropriations bills mandatory spending on entitlement the neediest members of our society. labeled "domestic discretionary" programs took up 29.6 percent of the This action violates what should be the spending. The wreck you won't want federal budget. Thirty years later, they cardinal rule of budget cutting: shared to miss will involve the federal bud­ consume more than 50 percent of the sacrifice. get's equivalent of a "bullet'' train­ budget. And by the year 2010, along It also defies logic. As entitlement spending. with the interest we are required to Concord Coalition President Peter G. If Congress and the president pay on our massive $5 trillion debt, Peterson recently explained to an audi­ fail to slow this train down before too these programs will consume all feder­ ence at the United We Stand long, there will be a devastating crash al revenues. There won't be one penny Conference in Dallas: ''Trying to bal­ that will make debates about how left over to fund any other government ance the budget without touching much to spend on defense, education, programs, without raising taxes to Social Security is like trying to clean crime prevention and all other domes­ unheard of levels. out your garage without moving the tic programs irrelevant very early in Even scarier than these num­ Winnebago. You might be able to make the next century. Failure by Congress bers is the fact that Republicans and a start, but you'll never be able to fin­ and the White House to address this Democrats in Congress can't even ish the job." crisis will also make balancing the agree on the simple fact that America's • budget by 2002, and thereafter, virtual­ current path of spending on our Entitlement Mythology ly impossible. largest entitlement programs is unsus­ tainable. With solid evidence in hand In order to fully understand how Budgetary Black Hole that Medicare is in serious financial America's health and retirement enti­ trouble, Congressional Democrats tlement programs are fueling our mas­ While many Americans still blame for­ recently paraded around the country sive debt and why we must deal with eign aid and government "waste, telling their constituents there is no them now to achieve a principled, and fraud and abuse" for our budget woes, problem with the system. Republican sustainable balanced budget, it is entitlement spending is the major con­ efforts to cut Medicare spending, they essential to expose several of the pop­ tributor to our fast growing federal say, are simply an attempt to pay for ular myths surrounding them. debt. Entitlement programs such as their proposed tax cut and balance the Myth One: These programs the two largest-Social Security and budget on the backs of America's aren't a drain on our budget. They are Medicare-are open-ended, legally elderly. Republicans, to their credit, trust funds in which duly recorded binding obligations of the government have placed Medicare on the budget deposits are held for depositors. Rather to pay benefits to all who meet speci­ table and admit there's an urgent prob­ than the "trust funds" they're adver­ fied criteria. The programs do not have lem. But then, with a straight face, tised to be, these programs are strictly to be reviewed by Congress. Nor do they join in a conspiracy of silence pay as you go. Obligations owed by their expenditures have to compete with Democrats when it comes to dis­ the government to current retirees do against other programs and priorities. cussing the even larger crisis facing not come out of individually labeled

October 1995 7 couple can massive amounts from the public if it accounts. While rough estimates of addition to whatever the their own retire- intends to pay promised benefits. In Social Security and Medicare taxes are afford to put toward fact, Medicare has had an operating kept for accounting purposes, all types ment. will be sol­ deficit since 1992, and Social Security of federal revenues flow into the same Myth Two: Medicare Security will be will begin running a deficit in 2013, IRS bank accounts and are spent vent until 2002 and Social 2030. Wrong. when too many retirees and too few immediately. Therefore, today's oblig~ solvent all the way to the official bank­ taxpayers send its balance into a free ations to retirees are paid out of the Although these are media and fall. pockets of today's taxpayers, and ruptcy dates cited by the they have noth­ Myth Three: Talk of entitlement what's left in the "trust funds" is sim- many policymakers, world defini­ reform to balance the budget is really just of IOUs. ~· , ., ing to do with any real ply a pile a mean-spirited attack on seniors. Retirees When Social Security was tion of solvency. that are just getting back what they put in. 1935 there were over 10 Most people assume enacted in seniors believe they are But "bankruptcy'' must refer to the date Although most workers to support each retiree. , paid out of the simply getting back what they put in with the first members of the baby when the benefits Social Security facts tell a different story. An average boom generation preparing for retire­ Medicare (HI) or will exceed the one-earner couple retiring in 1995 gets ment around 2008, that ratio will soon (OASDD trust fund from earmarked back far more than was paid in. With plunge to 3:1. By the time our current revenues coming in case. By 2002 and Social Security and Medicare com­ newborns enter the work force, the taxes. This is not the will have long bined, the average windfall is approxi­ ratio will be 2:1. In effect, each work­ 2030, these programs c\eficits - mately $350,000, much of it tax-free. ing couple will be supporting the since been running cash will have had Unfortunately, despite a higher tax Social Security and Medicare costs of meaning that Congress or borrow burden, current taxpayers can never an anonymous retired household, in to raise taxes dramatically, hope to experience these windfalls, ..------. and many younger Americans now THE PRESENT TREND IS NOT SUSTAINABLE believe they won't receive any bene­ rapidly. Absent policy changes, The gap between Federal spending and revenues is growing almost all Federal rev­ fits from the "trust funds" upon entitlement spending and interest on the national debt will consume entitlement spending. enues in 2010. In 2030; Federal revenues will not even cover retirement. Myth Four. Most of the elderly are poor and therefore cannot afford decreased government benefits, even if it means raising taxes on younger genera­ tions. While it's true that two out of every five Social Security recipients make $20,000 or less, about 40 per- ~ cent of total benefits go fo house- holds with incomes above the U.S. I median average. According to the 1993 Census Bureau report, the Real Median Household Income of our elderly climbed by 26 percent L. between 1973 and 1992, while the J incomes of Americans aged 25-34 .. 20%- fell by 10.6 percent. Making matters worse is the fact that our tax system gouges 1993, U% young families like no other. In f Security a couple retired on Social paid, •I 10% with $30,000 a year in income on average, $850 in federal taxes. Meanwhile, their son and daughter in law, struggling to raise a family on the same income, paid a total fed­ I :J eral tax of $7,100. 1e10 1980 .t.llO aooo am.o 11ZO 20M The RIPON FORUM 8 What Can Be Done? current taxation. some of the draconian cuts proposed ff we do this, our deficits will in the Congressional Budget It's obvious that we can no longer disappear; our debt will shrink; our Resoluti:on. For example, the plan afford to ignore our runaway entitle- interest payments will become more would require Medicare savings of ment programs and mounting debt. ff and more manageable; our businesses only $150 billion over seven years, we do, they ·will eventually over- will :!Jwest; our economy will renew its rather than the $270 billion being . whelm our economy and our society. rapid growth of earlier years; more of sought by Congress. The plan would The interest we owe on the debt will our people will find employment in spread the sacrifices necessary to bal- skyrocket. We will continue our ance the budget more fairly across all vicious cycle of having to rais() t~es, _ ,·. _...... ::. , segments of society. And, like the cur- cut spending, '.111d bon:ow m?re and ~::: ·... .~::~/ .,..;::.~:;~l~ rent budget resolution in Congress, more to pay interest upon interest. ::·::~ .:--:,,~ ~~1l: the plan would be phased in over Our productivity will remain stag- :.:: :'. ::··.~ ·:·~..; .. ' -::. . ;:~7. seven years to make the cuts as pain- nant; more of our workers will have to :;::::.:_> -. ;. -'w* ·· . ,-~r'fa{' less as possible. settle for low paying jobs; and our Y , ... . . · ,:'.,.: · ·-... ,. . ~~F::(':<:· Entitlement Reform economy will continue its anemic · : · · · ' · growth. America will decline as a r., ' )~·h \~ :;-:.:.- ·: ::.. : world power. ~... . · · The centerpiece of the plan, and its Sometime early in the next single largest component of deficit century we will have to confront the ~j? reduction, is a proposal to means-test fundamental truth that low productiv- ~' government entitlement programs, ity and slow economic growth, caused · including Social Security and in large by our chronic budget deficits, Medicare. Under the plan, entitle- have failed to generate enough goods . ment payments to individuals would and services to satisfy our demands. be subject to a sliding-scale, across- the-board means test starting at a Working people will be required to pay an ever larger share of their earn- t"' family income level of $40,000. This comprehensive means test would ings to support a growing retirement reduce federal entitlement payments population and pay the exploding by $50.2 billion in the year 2002. interest on the debt that the older gen- Reducing entitlement pay- 11 eration accumulated. Eventually, working·people rnents to people with mid-level and Eventually, working people will refuse to submit to the higher incomes is not only fair, but will refuse to submit to the crushing also the only way to reign in the b u rden f orced upon them b y th·err crushing burden forced deficit. We currently make annual elders. They will vote for leaders who upon them by their elders. entitlement payments of ~ore than will slash entitlement programs, even They will vote for leaders $81 billion to six million citizens in on the truly needy, rather than raise families with incomes over $50,000. taxes still further. Millions of elderly who will slash entitlement We simply don't have the money to people who thought they could count programs... " make payments at that level any on their retirement benefits will find longer. that the resources are not there to meet higher-paying jobs; our society will Other entitlement reforms their needs. There will be a genera- continue to flourish; and the American would include a modest increase in tional conflict pitting American Dream will be restored to our children, Medicare premiums, deductibles and against American, child against par- and to our children's children. copayments, accelerating the rise in ent, in a way that our nation has not Social Security retirement age to 68 in seen before. The Zero Deficit Plan 2007, making changes to the federal We could, on the other hand, employee retirement system, and insti­ agricul­ do the right thing. We could refuse to The Zero Deficit Plan represents the tuting reforms to the federal let our leaders borrow and spend and Concord Coalition's blueprint for a ture and welfare programs. borrow and spend. We could insist balanced budget by 2002. Unlike the the Spending Cuts that they stop wasting our money and Congressional Budget Resolution, Domestic includ­ our children's money on programs plan puts all federal programs, the table." By The plan also proposes the elimination that do not work and on entitlement ing Social Security, "on 'on the table' and or reduction of a number of domestic payments for the well-off who do not putting all programs tax cuts, need them. We could insist that what omitting politically-popular the Zero Deficit Plan would avoid (Continued on page 27) spending is done is paid for now out of

October 1995 9 THE ANALYST by Christine Matthews Co-opting the Angry Middle there is much discus­ have come to be so disaffected and arely a day goes by that we are While critical "Perot vote," cynical and what this bodes for the not confronted with new evi­ sion about the this categorization is too narrow to future. dence of increasing voter dissat­ to be R the divergent groups of Look for these topics isfaction. Voters are mad at De\Ilo.crats; encompass voters that populate addressed in upcoming Forums: they're mad at Republicans; they want independent political landscape. Talking a third party, perhaps so they can be today's voters as a mono­ • November: Why the electorate is so mad at them too. So much blame, so about independent as futile as talking about the unhappy. little understanding. lith is We will attempt to • December: How to co-opt the dis­ While politicians have cocked "women's vote." dissect this independent vote in a content. an ear their way, voters feel unheard the way. • February: The train is leaving and unappreciated. As if encountering revealing taking a careful look at his­ station: consequences of Republican some type of alien lifeforce, elected By public opinion surveys, inaction. officials wonder: who are they and torical trends, data, popular culture, and what do they want from us? census we hopt! to offer a Christine Matthews is principal of CM While we do not promise to scholarly works, picture of how voters Research in Alexandria, VA. have all the answers, over the course more complete of the next few months this column the state of voter ,,.------will be devoted to you say that Y°"- are satisfied disaffection and unrest in this country, All in all,, would with the way thinga are going in specifically: sm. or dissatisfied this country the8e days? ~ • What factors have contributed to the widespread voter dissatisfaction with 70% ------two­ politics, government, and the 60'A Key. system? party 50% Satisfied OiMatiS.fied-- has the rapidly changing eco­ 40'\ • How ' • .... nomic and cultural environment ~'\ .... "'..,.~-- political public opinion? - - impacted 2(.}'l, ------~ ------• As Generation X enters and the GI JO'.ffi generation exits, what impact will 0 '1J'M 6/95 these generational shifts have on polit­ 10/SS 5/90 t/92 ical behavior?

• Who are the key independent voters Looking ahead, would you like to see Bill Clinton .re-eleded and what do they care about? o.r would you like to ~ a Republkan candidate or 3n Independent candidate be elected President in 19967 • In what ways do both major politi­ cal parties fail to address the concerns Key: of such a huge block of voters? O Cl1'nton Republican Party reach • How can the • KepublicaP these disaffected, independent voters into a Republican coa)i­ 20% and fold them • Independent tion? 10% • What are the likely consequences if over these crit­ Republicans fail to win 0 ical voters? 12./93 12/94 3/ 95

The RIPON FORUM 10 F () R ll l\1 R [AD [Rs' s LI RV E' Riponites Back Specter; Prefer Po~ell

BY DAVID R. BEILER 0.5%. he response was gratifying, the [_ ~a::~. ~iessttmn I results fascinating. Ripon's first percent of us are self-described "liber­ Tpoll of Forum readers is certain­ als, while our median family income is ly an exercise we intend to rweat in a mainstream $70,500. True, we are a the future. We are very grateful to the bit of an elite when it comes to educa­ hundreds of readers who responded. tion: 98 percent of us have attended Today, we have a much dear­ college, and just under half have grad­ er idea of who Riponites are, and what uate degrees. they·believe. For one thing, a plurality Readers seemed well-pleased prefer Colin Powell as their next pres­ with the content of the Forum: no part ident, even though he is still on the of the magazine drew even a plurality sidelines. Other segments of our new­ of requests for less coverage. Demand found knowledge were even more for increased content was strongest for Teddy Roosevelt: Tops for 20th Century surprising, a clear indication that pro­ policy studies, state/loca! gressive Republicanism is anything political news, investjgative PR.6SIDENT!AL PREFERENCES but static. reporting, op-ed columns I and letters to the editor. (The Ga-Ga For li"Gramps" latter two were no surprise, With With.out- Powell as the Forum has published p°'"" Who, for example, would have Gen. Cohn Pmvell (VA) lo'J, NA no letters or opinion columns guessed thirty years ago-shortly this year.) Least-favored .Sen. (KS) 13 2~ after Ripon' s founding as a counter­ Gov. P~ Wtlson (CA) B 1$ areas were DC political news balance to the GOP's expanding radi­ and advertising (surprise!). .Sen. Arlen Specter (PA) 7 21 cal right-that Barry Goldwater Sen. ·Rkhard Lugar (IN) (, 11 would receive nearly four ti.mes as Ex-iOV. Lamar Alexander (TN) 5 10 Socially Tolerant, many votes for "Republican of ·the Sen. Phil Gramm (TX) 3 3 Century'' than ? Fiscally Conservative ·· PubJi.sher Steve Forbes (NJ) 2 3 That journey was made from In _terms of policy prefer­ Pat ·"Buchanan (DC) t 2 both ends of the spectrum: main­ ences, Riponites are a sur­ Prof. Alan Keyes (MD) i I stream thought now looks upon pater­ prisingly fierce breed of CEO Morry Taylor OL}11- I 1 nalistic government with much the deficit hawk: By overwhelm­ Others 3 3 same jaundiced eye Goldwater had in ing margins, we favor reduc­ Undecided 33 l:l 1964; and the firm libertarian beliefs ing the budget, .instituting the Arizonan always held have moved means testing for Social into the spotlight only within the last VICE-PRESU>ENTIAL hEHKENCES Security, deferring tax cuts l decade, as controversy over individ­ until the budget is balanced, Wifh Without ual freedoms had increased. and immediately passing the Powell l'owell Progressives now delight in finding line-item veto-despite the Gm. Colin Powell (VA) 34~ NA crusty old "Gramps" Goldwater in Democrat White House. ~ov. Chrmty Whitman {Nf) 8 20o/. their comer, railing against pro-lifers, We also back much Cov. Bill Weld