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PANEL RESULTS from RURAL HOUSEHOLDS in EL SALVADOR DISSERTATION Presented REMITTANCES AS A STRATEGY TO COPE WITH SYSTEMIC RISK: PANEL RESULTS FROM RURAL HOUSEHOLDS IN EL SALVADOR DISSERTATION Presented in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirement for the Degree Doctor of Philosophy in the Graduate School of The Ohio State University By Rafael Antonio Pleitez Chavez, MPIA * * * * * The Ohio State University 2004 Dissertation Committee: Approved by Professor Claudio Gonzalez-Vega, Adviser Professor Timothy Haab ________________________ Professor Priyodorshi Banerjee Adviser Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics ABSTRACT This dissertation examines the role of remittances as a strategy to mitigate risk within rural households in an environment characterized by substantial systemic shocks. To accomplish this, a four-survey panel data set is used to analyze the flows of remittances from both national and international migrants for the case of rural households in El Salvador. The period covered by the panel observations (1995-2001) was marked by significant systemic shocks, thereby offering an opportunity to test hypotheses about remittances as informal insurance. The analysis highlights key differences between national and international remittances as informal insurance mechanisms. This dissertation follows a risk sharing approach. The main test is to verify if, controlling for other things, the amount of remittances received by Salvadoran rural households is higher when they must cope with adverse income shocks. Shocks are measured as deviations from income predicted by an earnings function. The main predictions of the model are that the optimal amount of remittances to the rural household in the home country is decreasing in the expected earnings and positively related to negative income shocks of the household. For a domestic migrant, subject to shocks covariant with those that also afflict the rural household, however, the optimum ii amount of remittances will be lower, compared to an international migrant for which this covariant component does not exist. The econometric results show that both the probability of receiving remittances and the amount of the remittances are decreasing in the expected earnings of the Salvadoran rural household. The empirical results further provide evidence that there is a positive relationship between the amount of remittances and the relative magnitude of negative income shocks. This relationship, however, is significant only for households with international migrants. This result gives empirical support for the greater scope of international remittances as an informal insurance mechanism. Given a risky rural environment and the limitations of formal credit and insurances markets, it appears that some rural households have followed a strategy of using international migration-cum-remittances as an insurance mechanism capable of protecting them even from systemic shocks. In contrast, national migration cannot generate this important outcome. iii Dedicated to Marielos iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS I would like to thank my adviser, Claudio González-Vega, for his continuous support, encouragement, and enthusiasm, which made this dissertation possible. Professor González-Vega gave me the opportunity to participate in several interesting projects that led to this dissertation. I would also like to thank Tim Haab and Priyodorshi Banerjee for their help and advice. I also thank Jorge Rodríguez-Meza for his timely help and for discussing with me various aspects of this dissertation. v VITA January 5, 1968…………………………...Born – San Salvador, El Salvador 1991………………………………………B.A. (Licenciatura) Economics, Universidad Centroamericana (UCA), El Salvador. 1994………………………………………Master in Public and International Affairs (MPIA) University of Pittsburg, PA, USA. 1994-1999………………………………..Professor of Economics at the Universidad Centroamericana (UCA), El Salvador. 1998-1999 (Aug).………………………...Head of Economics Department at the Universidad Centroamericana (UCA), El Salvador. 1999-2003………………………………...Graduate Research Associate, The Ohio State University PUBLICATIONS 1. Pleitez Chávez, R. A. (2000). Microfinanzas y pobreza: Un análisis de la tecnología de crédito de la Financiera Calpiá. ECA, Estudios Centroamericanos, 624, 983-1000. 2. Pleitez, R. A. (1999). Globalización, división internacional del trabajo y situación laboral en Centroamérica. ECA, Estudios Centroamericanos. FIELDS OF STUDY Major Field: Agricultural, Environmental and Development Economics Field of Concentration: Development Economics vi TABLE OF CONTENTS Page Abstract…..………………………………………………………………………….......ii Dedication…..…………………………………………………………………………..iv Acknowledgments……………………………………………………………………….v Vita………………………………………………………………………..…………….vi List of Tables…………………………………………………………………………....ix List of Graphs…………………………………………………………………………...xi Chapters: 1. Introduction…………………………………………………………….……......1 2. The literature on migration and remittances………………................................10 2.1 Risk-mitigation strategies and the literature on informal insurance …….....11 2.2 Literature on migration and remittances…....................................................17 2.3 El Salvador: literature on migration, remittances and risk management.......24 2.4 Conclusions...................................................................................................31 3. Theoretical and empirical models of remittances…...................................….....33 3.1 The benchmark risk-sharing model of remittances……………….…….….35 3.2 A model with credit and remittances.............................................................44 3.3 Empirical implementation of the remittance function...................................48 3.3.1 The censored Tobit model..............................................................52 3.3.2 The probit model............................................................................53 3.3.3 Testing for the exogeneity of the loan in the remittance equation.54 4. The Salvadoran context and rural household data………………………..…….56 4.1 Social and economic context in the 1990s............................………………56 4.1.1 The process of economic growth....................................................57 4.1.2 The agricultural sector…………..………………………………..60 4.1.3 Migration, remittances and poverty………….…………………...62 4.2 Description of the surveys of rural households in El Salvador………….....66 4.2.1 General information about the National Rural Household Surveys...........................................................................................66 vii 4.2.2 Description of the four-observation panel data set of Salvadoran rural households..............................................................................68 4.3 Summary............................................................................................73 5. Econometric results…………………………………………………………….75 5.1 Estimation of the permanent component of income…………….…….........75 5.2 Relationship of remittances with income, borrowing and income shocks....78 5.2.1 Relationship between remittances and expected income...............78 5.2.2 The relationship between remittances and income shocks….........81 5.2.3 Relationship between remittances and borrowing..........................83 5.2.4 Relationship between remittances and other household characteristics.................................................................................83 5.3 Comparison between international and national remittances........................85 5.4 The role of the size of the rural household....................................................89 5.5 An analysis of the effect of remittances on attrition......................................91 6. Conclusions…………………………………………………………….………95 Appendices Appendix A: Tables………………………………………….......…………....102 Appendix B: Graphs..........................................................................................121 List of references…………….……………………..……………………………..…..124 viii LIST OF TABLES Table Page 1 Evolution of Remittances………………………………………………….....103 2 Salvadorans in El Salvador and the United States……………………………104 3 Salvadoran Households with Remittances…………………………………....104 4 Percentage of Poor Households in El Salvador………………………...……..105 5 Rural Poverty Dynamics (Four-Observations of Panel Data, 1995-2001)…....105 6 Source of Income by Poverty Status (Four-Observations of Panel Data)….....106 7 Rural Households by Poverty Status with and without Remittances (Four- Observations of Panel Data)………………………………………………..…107 8 Four-Observation Panel of Salvadoran Rural Households by Migrant and Remittances Status…………………………………………………………….108 9 Panel of Salvadoran Rural Households Attriters by Migrant and Remittances Status………………………………………………………………………….109 10 Four-Observation Panel Data of Rural Households: Socio-Economic Features..............................................................................................................110 11 Four-Observation Panel Data of Salvadoran Rural Households: Income…….111 12 From the Four-Observation Panel Data of Rural Households: Income by Migrant and Remittances Status in 2001……………………………...............112 13 Fixed-Effects Estimator of Income Net of Transfers………………………....113 14 Random-Effects Probit and Tobit Estimates of Remittances ….……………..114 15 Random-Effects Probit Estimates for International and National Migration…115 ix 16 Random-Effects Tobit Estimates for International Remittances and National Remittances………………………………………………………...……...….116 17 Controlling for the Size of the Rural Household: Random-Effects
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