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DRAFT 2020 Integrated Resource Plan As Adopted by the Commission on MMMM DD, 2020

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DRAFT 2020 Integrated Resource Plan As Adopted by the Commission on MMMM DD, 2020 DRAFT 2020 Integrated Resource Plan As Adopted by the Commission on MMMM DD, 2020 Table of Contents Editor’s Note ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Caveats ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Commerce Rulemaking on the Clean Energy Transformation Act ...................................................................... 1 COVID-19 ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Requirements of a Resource Plan ............................................................................................................................. 1 Future Load and Resource Balances ........................................................................................................................ 3 Resources to Meet Future Growth and the CETA Requirements .............................................................................. 4 Least Cost Action Plan Summary.............................................................................................................................. 4 Clean Energy Action Plan Summary ........................................................................................................................ 4 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 Section 1—Organization, Overview, Objectives and Approach .............................................................................. 6 Organization of the Report ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Clark Public Utilities Overview ................................................................................................................................ 6 Objectives of the IRP ................................................................................................................................................ 7 Approach to Integrated Resource Planning .............................................................................................................. 7 Section 2—Forecasted Incremental Electric Power Requirements ......................................................................... 9 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 9 Gross Electric Power Load Forecasts ...................................................................................................................... 9 Net Electric Power Load Forecasts ........................................................................................................................ 11 Retail Demand-Side Contributions .................................................................................................................... 11 Retail Supply-Side Resource Contributions ....................................................................................................... 12 Net Load Forecast Results ................................................................................................................................. 12 Existing Resources .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Existing Federal Resources ................................................................................................................................ 13 Existing Non-Federal Resources ........................................................................................................................ 14 Planning Margin for Peak Requirement Planning .............................................................................................. 18 Incremental Electric Power Requirements ............................................................................................................. 18 Section 3 - Conservation and Demand Response Potential Assessments .............................................................. 20 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 20 Summary of CPA ..................................................................................................................................................... 20 Section 4—Wholesale Supply-Side Resource Options Assessment ....................................................................... 22 Overview of Supply-Side Resource Acquisition Alternatives .................................................................................. 22 Purchasing Output via Contract versus Asset Ownership ...................................................................................... 22 Generating Resources Assessment Overview .......................................................................................................... 23 Current Landscape ............................................................................................................................................. 23 Generating Resources Costs and Characteristics ............................................................................................... 25 Renewable Energy Resources Overview ........................................................................................................... 29 Assessment of Storage Systems ......................................................................................................................... 37 Clark Public Utilities – 2020 Integrated Resource Plan Table of Contents 20-Year (2021-40) Levelized Costs ................................................................................................................... 42 Social Cost of Carbon ........................................................................................................................................ 44 Section 5—Comparative Evaluation of Renewable and Nonrenewable Energy Resources ................................ 47 Renewable Energy and Conservation Requirements .............................................................................................. 47 Comparative Evaluation of Renewable and Nonrenewable Resources .................................................................. 47 Assessment of Tools Available for Integrating Renewable Resources .................................................................... 48 From The Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy ...................................................................... 49 From Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) ............................................................................................ 50 Section 6—Least Cost Considerations and Alternatives ........................................................................................ 52 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 52 Development of Alternatives and Portfolios ........................................................................................................... 52 Section 7—Other Important Planning Considerations .......................................................................................... 55 The Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA) ...................................................................................................... 55 The Rising Need for Resource Adequacy and Generation Flexibility ..................................................................... 56 Scenario Planning................................................................................................................................................... 59 Voluntary or Mandatory implementation of Washington State Clean Air Rule (CAR) ..................................... 60 2021 – 2028 Access to Unused BPA High Water Mark Energy ........................................................................ 61 Post 2028 BPA Contract Scenarios .................................................................................................................... 62 RRGP Operating Status post 2028/2030 ............................................................................................................ 66 Step Function Load Changes ............................................................................................................................. 69 Generation and Transmission Availability and Challenges.................................................................................... 71 Generation System ............................................................................................................................................
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