DRAFT 2020 Integrated Resource Plan As Adopted by the Commission on MMMM DD, 2020 Table of Contents Editor’s Note ................................................................................................................................................................ 1 Caveats ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Commerce Rulemaking on the Clean Energy Transformation Act ...................................................................... 1 COVID-19 ............................................................................................................................................................ 1 Executive Summary ..................................................................................................................................................... 1 Purpose ..................................................................................................................................................................... 1 Requirements of a Resource Plan ............................................................................................................................. 1 Future Load and Resource Balances ........................................................................................................................ 3 Resources to Meet Future Growth and the CETA Requirements .............................................................................. 4 Least Cost Action Plan Summary.............................................................................................................................. 4 Clean Energy Action Plan Summary ........................................................................................................................ 4 Conclusions ............................................................................................................................................................... 5 Section 1—Organization, Overview, Objectives and Approach .............................................................................. 6 Organization of the Report ....................................................................................................................................... 6 Clark Public Utilities Overview ................................................................................................................................ 6 Objectives of the IRP ................................................................................................................................................ 7 Approach to Integrated Resource Planning .............................................................................................................. 7 Section 2—Forecasted Incremental Electric Power Requirements ......................................................................... 9 Introduction .............................................................................................................................................................. 9 Gross Electric Power Load Forecasts ...................................................................................................................... 9 Net Electric Power Load Forecasts ........................................................................................................................ 11 Retail Demand-Side Contributions .................................................................................................................... 11 Retail Supply-Side Resource Contributions ....................................................................................................... 12 Net Load Forecast Results ................................................................................................................................. 12 Existing Resources .................................................................................................................................................. 13 Existing Federal Resources ................................................................................................................................ 13 Existing Non-Federal Resources ........................................................................................................................ 14 Planning Margin for Peak Requirement Planning .............................................................................................. 18 Incremental Electric Power Requirements ............................................................................................................. 18 Section 3 - Conservation and Demand Response Potential Assessments .............................................................. 20 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 20 Summary of CPA ..................................................................................................................................................... 20 Section 4—Wholesale Supply-Side Resource Options Assessment ....................................................................... 22 Overview of Supply-Side Resource Acquisition Alternatives .................................................................................. 22 Purchasing Output via Contract versus Asset Ownership ...................................................................................... 22 Generating Resources Assessment Overview .......................................................................................................... 23 Current Landscape ............................................................................................................................................. 23 Generating Resources Costs and Characteristics ............................................................................................... 25 Renewable Energy Resources Overview ........................................................................................................... 29 Assessment of Storage Systems ......................................................................................................................... 37 Clark Public Utilities – 2020 Integrated Resource Plan Table of Contents 20-Year (2021-40) Levelized Costs ................................................................................................................... 42 Social Cost of Carbon ........................................................................................................................................ 44 Section 5—Comparative Evaluation of Renewable and Nonrenewable Energy Resources ................................ 47 Renewable Energy and Conservation Requirements .............................................................................................. 47 Comparative Evaluation of Renewable and Nonrenewable Resources .................................................................. 47 Assessment of Tools Available for Integrating Renewable Resources .................................................................... 48 From The Journal of Modern Power Systems and Clean Energy ...................................................................... 49 From Energy and Environmental Economics (E3) ............................................................................................ 50 Section 6—Least Cost Considerations and Alternatives ........................................................................................ 52 Introduction ............................................................................................................................................................ 52 Development of Alternatives and Portfolios ........................................................................................................... 52 Section 7—Other Important Planning Considerations .......................................................................................... 55 The Clean Energy Transformation Act (CETA) ...................................................................................................... 55 The Rising Need for Resource Adequacy and Generation Flexibility ..................................................................... 56 Scenario Planning................................................................................................................................................... 59 Voluntary or Mandatory implementation of Washington State Clean Air Rule (CAR) ..................................... 60 2021 – 2028 Access to Unused BPA High Water Mark Energy ........................................................................ 61 Post 2028 BPA Contract Scenarios .................................................................................................................... 62 RRGP Operating Status post 2028/2030 ............................................................................................................ 66 Step Function Load Changes ............................................................................................................................. 69 Generation and Transmission Availability and Challenges.................................................................................... 71 Generation System ............................................................................................................................................