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Section 3: Natural Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment

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Section 3: Natural Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Section 3: Natural Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Washington County Natural Hazard Mitigation Action Plan Update 2010 Risk assessments provide information about the changes to building codes or development areas where the hazards may occur, the value of regulations, identifying properties or structures existing land and property in those areas, and an appropriate for acquisition or relocation, policies analysis of the potential risk to life, property, and the concerning critical and public facilities, taxation environment that may result from natural hazard strategies for mitigating risk, and informational events. This section identifies and profiles the programs for members of the public who are at risk. location, extent, previous occurrences, and future The third phase, risk analysis, involves probability of natural hazards that can impact estimating the damage, injuries, and costs likely to Washington County, as highlighted in Figure 3.1 be incurred in a geographic area over a period of below. The information in this section was paired time. Risk has two measurable components: (1) the with the information from Section 2: Community magnitude of the harm that may result, defined Profile during the planning process in order to through the vulnerability assessment, and (2) the identify issues and develop actions aimed at likelihood or probability of the harm occurring. An reducing overall risk, or the area of overlap in the example of a product that can assist communities in figure below. completing the risk analysis phase is HAZUS, a risk A risk assessment consists of three phases: assessment software program for analyzing hazard identification, vulnerability assessment, and potential losses from floods, hurricane winds and risk analysis, as illustrated in the following graphic. earthquakes. In the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) hazard modeling Exhibit 3.1: Risk Assessment summary program HAZUS-MH, current scientific and engineering knowledge is coupled with the latest geographic information systems (GIS) technology to produce estimates of hazard- related damage before, or after a disaster occurs. In 2007, Washington County conducted a Hazard Analysis as part of developing an Emergency Operations Plan. Individual hazards were scored using a formula that incorporated four rating criteria with weight factors and three levels of severity. For every hazard, scores for the four criteria (event history, vulnerability, maximum threat, and Source: USGS - University of Oregon Community Service Center, 2006 probability) were determined by multiplying each criterions severity rating by its weight factor. The The first phase, hazard identification, involves rating criteria scores for each hazard were summed the identification of the geographic extent of a to provide a total score for that hazard. The hazard hazard, its intensity, and its probability of ranking was determined to be: severe weather, occurrence. This level of assessment typically pandemic, flood, earthquake, utility failure, involves producing a map. The outputs from this terrorism / civil disturbance, ash fallout, enemy phase can also be used for land use planning, urban attack, drought / water shortage, hazmat release, growth management, and regulation; public Wildland Urban Interface fire, dam failure, awareness; and defining areas for further study. transportation accident, tornado, and landslide. The The second phase, vulnerability assessment, analysis is included in Appendix B: Hazard combines the information from the hazard Background Information. identification with an inventory of the existing (or This Risk Assessment focuses on natural hazards planned) property and population exposed to a and so will not discuss each of the hazards ranked hazard, and attempts to predict how different types by the County. However, increasing the resiliency of of property and population groups will be affected the County in the face of natural hazards will by the hazard. This step can also assist in justifying contribute to the ability of the County to recover Washington County Natural Hazard Mitigation Action Plan! 3-1! Section 3: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment from other kinds of disruptions. Where applicable, we have incorporated information and ranking from the County Hazard Analysis. In describing recent hazard events, it is not always easy to separate causality from occurrence. Severe natural hazard events can alter the environment and trigger other, secondary hazards. For example, winter rain storms often cause flooding and within hours or days over-saturated ground at steep grades can sink or slide. In Washington County, the unique basin-shaped topography can compound the affect of many hazard risks. This section steps through recent hazard events to impact the County, provides an overview of recent scientific data about the hazards and vulnerabilities facing the County, and describes hazard risk in Washington County. More extensive descriptions of each hazard background is provided in Appendix B. Washington County Natural Hazard Mitigation Action Plan! 3-2! Section 3: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Known as the “Christmas Flood,” the flood of Flood Hazard December 1964 was rated as a 100-year event by FEMA. The conditions resulting in the floods of 1964 Floodplain maps provide detailed information were similar to the causes of the 1996 floods. Warm, about the location of the flood hazard and can assist prolonged rainfall on a low level snow pack quickly planning jurisdictions in making policy and land filled local streams and rivers. use decisions. Maps of the floodplain provides important data for determining the areas that fall Hazard History: 2004 - 2009 within the floodplain. In Washington County, the Tualatin Basin is a key factor for understanding Severe rain storms significantly impact flood risk. It can amplify the risk of flooding from Washington County and the surrounding region accumulated precipitation or runoff in lakes, rivers, nearly every year. Strong weather systems brought streams, culverts, and throughout low-lying areas. severe storms, flooding, landslides, and mudslides Washington County is prone to two types of from December 2005-January 2006, then again in flooding: riverine and urban flooding. Riverine November and December 2006. These events were flooding occurs when rivers and streams overwhelm declared presidential disasters by FEMA for their banks. Increased development accelerates the counties and communities adjacent to Washington risk of urban flooding. Impervious surfaces such as County. Even though Washington County was not concrete and asphalt collect water at a faster rate included in this declaration, County residents did than an undeveloped landscape and the resulting experience disruption from these events.1 runoff can collect in streets, ditches, and basements, December 2007 again brought torrential rain to impacting County residents on a regular basis. the region that caused flooding, landslides, and mudslides. Highway 26 and 6 were closed due to Hazard History: prior to 2004 trees and debris blocking the roadway. The most Between the 1850’s and the present, human severe impacts of this storm were felt by coastal activity significantly changed the hydrology of the counties, where hurricane force winds knocked out Willamette watershed, including changes to the communications and power lines, and in Columbia Tualatin Basin. Hydroelectric dams and flood County where the town of Vernonia was flooded control systems were constructed throughout the when the Nehalem River breached its banks. In all, drainage basin. Private and public organizations six counties in northwest Oregon, including engaged in the dewatering of wetlands, the draining Washington County, were eligible for federal of floodplains, and diking along some sections of the disaster aid.2 river. More recently, increasing urbanization has contributed to changes in basin hydrology. Prior to human alteration of the river system, rivers in the Since 1978, the National Flood Insurance region flooded larger areas more often. Program (NFIP) has paid over $4.2 million in claims for flood damage to Washington County properties. In February of 1996, an unusually deep, low Exhibit 3.2 shows that, as of May 2009, elevation snow pack in the Cascades and Coast unincorporated Washington County had 64 Range was soaked for four days by precipitation repetitive loss properties, with 14 claims. And as of coming from a subtropical storm off the Pacific March 2010, 904 National Flood Insurance Program Ocean. The four-day rainfall total in Hillsboro was policies in place. A list of repetitive loss properties in 6.70 inches, surpassing the previous record of 5.91 unincorporated Washington County is on file at the inches set in 1974. Washington County suffered Emergency Management and Land Use and almost $10 million in damage from the event; Transportation Offices (This information is protected statewide damages surpassed $280 million. National by the Federal Privacy Act). Also, see Map 3.3. Flood Insurance Program claims from the event surpassed $2.3 million for the County alone. Washington County Natural Hazard Mitigation Action Plan! 3-3! Section 3: Hazard Identification and Risk Assessment Exhibit 3.2: NFIP Statistics, 1978-2010 ! Total Repetitive Number of Losses / Losses / Policies Paid in full Claims* Payments Beaverton 323 42 / 23 6 / 2 $ 227,607.84 Cornelius 10 1 / 1 $ 3,784.71 Forest Grove 12 5 / 2 $ 75,194.38 Gaston 3 1 / 1 $ 53,293.25 Hillsboro
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