CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
CHAPTER 3. AVIATION FORECASTS
3-1 Introduction
The aviation forecasts provide estimates for future aviation demand at the airport. Projections of aviation demand are important in the planning process as they provide the basis for the following:
Documentation of the role of the airport and determination of the type aircraft to be accommodated in the future. Evaluation of the capacity of existing airport facilities and their ability to accommodate proposed expansion. Estimation of extent of airside and landside facilities required for future years.
The Airport Layout Plan’s twenty-year aviation forecast projects markets, enplanements, and aircraft types. The Airport Layout Plan forecast (“MMH / Brandley forecast”) was developed by Reinard W. Brandley. Brandley considered various information during the development of this forecast, including forecasts prepared by Mammoth Mountain Ski Area’s airline consultant in collaboration with airport staff and Mammoth Lakes Tourism. The MMH / Brandley forecast includes an analysis of peer resort airport enplanements and airline operations that include Yampa Valley, Eagle County, Aspen-Pitkin, Glacier Park, Montrose Regional, and Friedman Memorial (Sun Valley) airports. It is reasonable to expect that MMH will have a growth rate similar to that of its peer review airports. These resorts were chosen because they are similar in nature to MMH and have successful air service programs. This growth is based on the continued support of the Town, Mammoth Lakes Tourism, the Eastern Sierra Air Alliance, Mono County, and Mammoth Mountain Ski Area (MMSA).
As mentioned above, MMSA had aviation forecasts prepared by an airline consultant in collaboration with airport staff and Mammoth Lakes Tourism, which were considered in the development of the MMH / Brandley forecast. A draft MMSA forecast was presented to the community in a series of six workshops in the spring of 2011. The Town’s Airport Commission also held a workshop focused on the draft MMSA forecast in December 2011, at which the MMSA airline consultant presented his assumptions and methodology. Subsequently, in March 2012, the draft MMSA forecast was revised and is contained in Table No. 3-1. The revised MMSA forecast shows enplanements increasing from 26,200 in 2011 to approximately 130,500 in 2028, using a 60 percent load factor. The MMSA forecasts were evaluated and considered by Brandley in the development of the MMH / Brandley forecast of airline enplaned passengers and operations.
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The MMH / Brandley forecast of enplanements projects enplanements to increase from 26,200 in 2011 to 140,000 in 2030 (see Table No. 3-4), which equates to roughly 1,000 passengers arriving daily in the winter of 2030.
3-2 Airport Role
MMH has previously served and will continue to serve as an airport that provides service for aircraft from the Central and Western United States bringing visitors to the recreation facilities available in the area, including skiing, fishing, and hiking, and access to Yosemite National Park. Recently, airline service has been instituted and is growing rapidly. MMH is currently classified by F.A.A. as a Primary Commercial Service Airport. The new air service to the region is subsidized by the MMSA in the winter to maintain a competitive position with other ski resorts in the Western United States. Summer air service has been subsidized by a partnership of the Town, Mono County, and MMSA. MMSA and the Town are committed to maintaining and expanding airline service to MMH; MMSA has provided a letter of commitment to the Town to formalize the partnership (see Appendix A). The nearest commercial airport to Mammoth Lakes is Reno, Nevada, which is 170 miles to the north.
A series of 90 hangars were constructed by the fixed base operator and sold to individual pilots and aircraft owners for aircraft storage at the airport. These hangars are in a pool, which is controlled and operated by the fixed base operator, providing covered storage space for visiting aircraft. MMH only has eight based aircraft - six single engine and two small twin-engine. The based aircraft population is not expected to change appreciably in the forecast period because of the visitor-based recreational resort nature of MMH.
While locally based operations at the airport are minimal, there are a significant number of itinerant operations at the airport. MMH serves GA aircraft ranging from the small single-engine propeller aircraft to large business jets on a year round basis. MMH also serves a growing airline operation. It is expected that these operations will continue at MMH and that there will be significant growth in the airline and business aircraft operations.
There are three other general aviation airports within 50 miles of MMH. According to F.A.A. Airport Master Records, Eastern Sierra Regional Airport in Bishop has 64 based aircraft, Lee Vining Airport has 1 based aircraft, and Bryant Field in Bridgeport has 1 based aircraft.
3-3 Projections
MMH airport serves the Town of Mammoth Lakes and surrounding recreational areas. Aviation activities generally result from demand for access to MMSA and the summer recreation facilities including hiking, fishing, and access to Yosemite National Park. These demands are satisfied by general aviation aircraft ranging
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in size from light single-engine propeller aircraft to large jets up to the Gulfstream G V class and automobiles and buses. MMH began commercial airline operations in 2008 during the winter months and has expanded rapidly since then.
Aviation activity levels result from interaction of demand and supply factors. The demand for aviation is generally a function of demographic and economic activities, but at this airport recreation activities are the main attraction. Supply factors that influence activity levels include cost, competition, and regulations. While there are very few aircraft based at this airport, there is significant activity by general aviation aircraft bringing visitors to the area, and by commercial airlines bringing visitors to the area since 2008. The basic steps for forecasting aviation activity at this airport are presented herewith.
3-3.1 Aviation Activity Parameters and Measures to be Forecast
The major activities and measures to be forecast include:
Annual Operations – Itinerant, Local, and Total Enplaned Passengers on Commercial Aircraft Fleet Mix – Number and Type of Operations Peak Operations Critical Aircraft Comparison of Airport Planning to TAF Forecasts Based aircraft
3-3.2 Collect and Review Previous Airport Forecasts
The most recent forecasts were prepared over 12 years ago and envisioned B757 non-stop flights from Chicago and Dallas Ft. Worth. Today a different market is being served and so historical forecasts will not be used for this study.
3-3.3 Data Collection
Pertinent data available for all demographics used in these forecasts were collected and used in this study. The most recent F.A.A. Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) were obtained for historical and forecast aviation activity for the entire United States, the F.A.A. Western Pacific Region, and MMH. Forecasts presented in the California Aviation System Plan (CASP) were also obtained and reviewed. The data collected included the following:
Population – The population of the Town of Mammoth Lakes and all of Mono County is very small and, as a result, the number of based aircraft at the airport is small and the influence of population on airport operations in this case is not significant.
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Employment – The major employment in the area is service and government. As a result, employment in the area will not have a significant influence on aviation forecasts.
Enplaned Passengers – MMSA is responsible for all winter airline contracts for service to MMH. MMSA studies of skiing activity at Mammoth Mountain as expressed in Annual Skier Days decreased significantly with the institution of airline service to the Colorado Ski Resorts. Studies also show there is a direct relationship between available airline service and the number of skier days recorded in an area. To regain their competitive position, MMSA worked to obtain airline contracts and sought a partnership with the Town to provide service to MMH. MMSA is committed to continue and expand this service. The Town and Mammoth Lakes Tourism have since added additional partners: Mono County and The Eastern Sierra Air Alliance.
The Town, MMSA, and Mammoth Lakes Tourism have developed a plan for service by airlines for the period 2008 through 2028. This plan is included as Table No. 3-1. This table indicates total number of seats available and does not apply load factors. Load factors of approximately 60 percent have been utilized to convert seats to enplaned passengers. This conversion is included in Table No. 3-3. Table No. 3-1 lists the forecast number of airline operations. One operation represents one aircraft departure, which represents two operations as used in this study. It will be noted that a major part of the airline operations is expected to occur in the late fall and winter months, which is the ski season at Mammoth Mountain. The spring/summer passengers are forecast to be one-third to one-half those in the winter. For comparative purposes, Table No. 3-3 also includes TAF historical and forecast enplaned passengers and aircraft operations for six other airports that serve similar needs as MMH. All of these data were used as input in developing the airport forecasts of enplaned passengers.
Based Aircraft – Historical and forecast based aircraft data were collected from the F.A.A. TAF for the entire United States system, the F.A.A. Western Pacific Region, and MMH. Historical and forecast based aircraft data for MMH were also collected from the California Aviation System Plan (CASP) and from the Airport. These data, converted to MMH based aircraft, are presented on Plate 3-1.
Annual Aircraft Operations – Historical and forecast annual aircraft operation data were obtained from the F.A.A. TAF for the entire United States system, the F.A.A. Western Pacific Region, and MMH. Data was also collected from the CASP reports. These data, converted to MMH operations, are included on Plate 3-2.
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Fleet Mix – Fleet mix data were acquired from the Airport and include the fleet mix for the itinerant and local general aviation activities. The general aviation fleet mix ranges from light single-engine propeller aircraft to light twin-engine propeller aircraft to the small jet powered aircraft, larger piston aircraft, and the large jet powered aircraft of the G V class. The fleet mix for the airlines will be determined by the contracts between the airline and MMSA and are indicated in Table No. 3-1. It is noted that currently the airlines are using Q400 aircraft and CRJ700 aircraft.
Helicopter Operations and Based Helicopters – There are no based helicopters at the airport.
3-3.4 Forecast Methods
For based aircraft and general aviation operations regression and trend analyses were conducted using population as the comparable feature. Share analyses were used with share of based aircraft and operations compared to the total National and Western Pacific Region numbers. In all evaluations historical data were used to develop a reasonable relationship between the number of based aircraft or number of aircraft operations per unit of population. This ratio was applied to the forecast population data available from local agencies.
In the share analysis the historical share of total aircraft based at MMH compared to those based at either the total U.S. airports or the F.A.A. Western Pacific Regional Airports was determined. This ratio was applied to the TAF forecasts for the total U.S. based aircraft and operations and the total Western Pacific Region based aircraft and operations.
Forecasts for total itinerant operations were established by historical data obtained from the Airport Management. In addition to the small single and twin engine propeller-driven aircraft that use the airport for skiing and other recreational activities, there are significant numbers of larger propeller-driven and turbojet aircraft that utilize the airport. The use of this airport by the larger aircraft has increased significantly over the past 10 years and this trend is expected to continue.
For airline operations, both enplaned passengers and operations, the MMH / Brandley forecast was developed taking into account the MMSA forecast, the historical and forecast growth at airports serving similar markets, and local considerations including population and airport constraints. The airports included in this comparative study were Yampa Valley Airport, Eagle County Regional Airport, Aspen-Pitkin County Airport, and Montrose Regional Airport located in Colorado, Glacier Park International Airport located in Montana, and Friedman Memorial Airport located in Idaho. All of these airports serve major skiing facilities similar to Mammoth Mountain and many of them also serve summer recreation facilities and national parks similar to Mammoth.
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A peer market comparison study has been completed for the six peer airports studied and Mammoth Yosemite Airport. This study compares airline enplanements, population, skier days, and other pertinent relationships of all studied peer airports. The results of this study are included in Table No. 3-2. The airports included in the peer market comparison, except for Glacier Park International Airport, are similar in many respects to MMH, and therefore, it can be expected that the growth pattern for airline activity at MMH will be similar to that at the peer airports provided MMSA continues the airline subsidy program. Below are some of the factors these markets have in common with MMH and were used to help develop the MMH / Brandley forecast:
Skiing is the Town’s major economic driving factor Long term revenue guarantee agreements with airlines Large number of “Annual Skier Days” Summer recreational facilities Small permanent population
These comparative studies show that Mammoth had lower enplanements and enplanements per population unit and significantly lower enplanements per skier day than the peer airports/markets (Table No. 3-2). This discrepancy is typical of a new service and shows a great opportunity for growth in enplanements at MMH. As a result, the number of enplanements can be expected to grow significantly as airline service to MMH matures.
MMSA has a major impact on airline activity and growth due to their revenue guarantee plan, which they have pledged to continue. With continued support from MMSA it is reasonable to expect the airline growth patterns for these peer airports to be applicable to MMH forecast growth. In the summer Mammoth Lakes Tourism, Mono County, and the Town also participate in the airline subsidy program, and the Town provides operational support year round.
Letters indicating commitment for continued support of the airline operation and growth are included in Appendix A from:
Mammoth Mountain Ski Area (MMSA) Mammoth Lakes Tourism Horizon Air Sky West Airlines
These are the major contributors to airline subsidies.
Funding for airline service at Alpine Resort Airports has been studied by Mr. Kent Meyers, Air Planners, and the results of this study are included in Appendix B. This study shows that all of the peer airports noted in this report provide subsidies to the airlines backed by the local ski resort.
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3-3.5 Evaluation of Forecasts
The historical data and forecast data for based fixed wing aircraft and local annual operations of fixed wing aircraft are presented graphically for each analysis method used.
3-3.5.1 Based Aircraft – Fixed Wing
On Plate 3-1 historic and forecast data for based fixed wing aircraft are shown as developed from County population, percent of national market share, and percent of Western Pacific Regional market share. The California Aviation System Plan forecasts are also included. The TAF historical and forecast data are shown on this plate and indicate a significant number of based aircraft up until 2003, at which time it dropped to eight and then by 2008 to four. TAF forecasts stay steady at four for the 20-year forecast period.
There are currently 8 aircraft based at the airport – 6 single engine propeller-driven aircraft and 2 small twin-engine propeller-drive aircraft. The number of based aircraft over the past 10 years is reported to have ranged from 6 to 8. The population of Mono County is not expected to grow significantly. The type of work available in Mono County is largely service and government, which does not lead to the development of aircraft ownership. Plate 3-1 shows an increase of 2 based aircraft over the next 20 years. It is difficult to forecast such small increases.
3-3.5.2 Annual Operations – Fixed Wing Aircraft
On Plate 3-2 historical and forecast data for annual operations of fixed wing aircraft are shown. On this graph the forecasts include those by TAF, California Aviation System Plan, percent of national market share, percent of Western Pacific Region market share, and the MMH / Brandley Forecast. It will be noted that the TAF forecasts show 24,000 operations in the early 1990s dropping to 16,000 to 17,000 from 1994 to 2006, and then dropping to 7,405 in 2009 and continuing at that level through the forecast period to 2030. The CASP shows a gradual increase from 14,000 in 1995 to 16,000 in 2020.
The Airport Forecast (MMH / Brandley Forcast) begins in 2010 with the same annual operations as the TAF forecasts but increases significantly over the next 20 years to 15,000 in 2030. This increase is brought about by the introduction of the airline service and additional itinerant aircraft operations from various areas in the Western United States. Based on proposed development at the airport, these projections are conservative.
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3-3.5.3 Enplaned Passengers and Airline Operations
Annual enplaned passenger forecasts were prepared considering the MMSA forecasts and the historical and forecast data obtained from comparable airports. These forecasts are shown on Plate 3-3. On this plate the historical enplanements and forecast enplanements for comparable airports including Yampa Valley, Eagle County Regional, Aspen-Pitkin County, Glacier Park International, Montrose Regional, and Friedman Memorial Airports are also included. It will be noted that the rate of growth of airline passenger enplanements for each of these airports was similar and matches the MMH / Brandley forecast, showing a rapid growth in the first five years after start of airline operation and then leveling off to a steady growth thereafter. The similarity of growth patterns validates the forecasts for annual enplanements at MMH.
The interim airline terminal at MMH is small (5,000 sq. ft.) and it is estimated that it will take five years to construct a new larger terminal. As a result, it is anticipated that the growth for the next five years will be small and limited to 60,000 annual enplanements. When the new larger terminal becomes operational, the growth rate of enplaned passengers and airline operations is expected to increase rapidly and reach the levels that would have occurred if the terminal building constraint had not existed. Both the MMSA and the MMH / Brandley forecasts reflect these constraints.
On Plate 3-4 the annual airline operations, both historical and forecast, are presented for MMH and for the same comparable airports. It will again be noted that the growth curve for MMH parallels the growth curve for these other airports, except for the early constraints caused by the insufficient terminal capacity, thus validating the data for MMH.
On Plate 3-5 the total airport operations, both historical and forecast, are presented for MMH and for the same comparable airports. It will be noted that the MMH growth curve has a similar slope as that of the other airports.
The passenger load factor as shown on Table No. 3-2 for the peer airports in the first quarter of 2011 ranged from 64.6 percent to 71.9 percent for all peer airports except for Glacier Park, which was 84.5 percent. During the same period the load factor at MMH was 61.5 percent and in 2009 and 2010 exceeded 60 percent. A 60 percent load factor has been used for all forecasts at MMH, which is considered to be conservative.
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3-3.5.4 Helicopters – Based Helicopters and Helicopter Operations
There are currently no based helicopters at the airport and none are forecast for this airport.
3-3.5.5 Fleet Mix
The fleet mix for the itinerant general aviation operations that exist today and are forecast to continue over the forecast period ranges from the small single-engine propeller-driven aircraft to the small twin- engine and larger twin-engine propeller driven aircraft. There are also significant numbers of jet-powered aircraft operating at the airport ranging from the small jet aircraft to the larger aircraft of the Falcon 50 and G V class. This fleet mix is expected to be maintained over the forecast period, but the number of larger aircraft with relation to the total fleet mix is expected to increase somewhat.
The existing and anticipated fleet mix forecast by MMSA for the airline operations are shown in Table No. 3-1. In 2010 Alaska Airlines was flying the Q400 aircraft and United/Skywest Airlines was flying the CRJ700 aircraft into MMH. In Table No. 3-1 the type aircraft and city to be served as forecast by MMSA are shown for each year through the forecast period. It is anticipated that airlines may add the B737, A319, or similar class of aircraft to their fleet in later years.
MMH has kept records of the number of turbine aircraft visits between 1999 and 2010. These data are presented in Plate 3-6. It will be noted that there was a steady increase from 300 to over 1,400 visits between 1999 and 2006, then a decrease through 2008 to 930, and then a continuing increase beyond that point. The growth over the forecast period is expected to be similar to the average growth in the past 10 years with some peaks and dips depending on the economy.
MMH currently serves aircraft of both the general aviation fleet and the airline fleet classified by the F.A.A. as ARC C III and is expected to serve an increasing number of ARC C III aircraft in future years.
3-3.5.6 Comparison of Airport Planning Forecasts to TAF Forecasts
The Federal Aviation Administration develops a Terminal Area Forecast (TAF) for each federally funded airport. These forecasts provide historical data and F.A.A. 20-year forecast data for passenger enplanements, aircraft operations, and based aircraft. In all Airport Layout Plan Update Narrative Reports it is required that a comparison between Airport forecasts and TAF forecasts be made so that it can be used as a guide to the reasonableness of the Airport forecasts. If
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the Airport forecasts do not exceed the TAF forecasts by more than 10 percent in five years and 15 percent in 10 years, they can be approved by the F.A.A. Airport District Office. If larger deviations in forecasts are proposed, then an explanation for the larger deviation must be submitted and be approved by F.A.A. Regional and/or Headquarters office. A summarization and documentation of Airport planning forecasts has been prepared and is included in Table No. 3- 4.
Forecast levels for passenger enplanements, fixed wing operations, and based aircraft are shown in Tables No. 3-5 and 3-6. A comparison of Airport Forecasts and TAF Forecasts has been prepared for based aircraft and is included in Table No. 3-5. A similar comparison has been made between Airport Forecasts and TAF Forecasts for annual operations and is included in Table No. 3-6.
The based fixed wing aircraft forecast shows a 100 percent difference between Airport Forecast and TAF at the base years and 150 percent increase at Base Year + 20 Years. The 100 percent difference represents current conditions, and with the small number of aircraft a small change creates a large percentage difference between the two forecast methods.
The comparison for annual operation forecasts shows very large differences between the Airport Forecast and the TAF Forecast. This is largely brought about by the recent introduction of airline operations and the forecasted growth in commercial airline operations and by the existing and forecast increase in itinerant general aviation operations. The forecast enplaned passenger operations and total operations include the rapid growth in airline operations and itinerant operations, which were not anticipated in the TAF Forecasts.
MMH enplanements and itinerant operations have already exceeded the TAF Forecast as shown in Table No. 3-3. In 2011, MMH achieved 26,196 enplanements, whereas the TAF showed only 23,770 enplanements. Also in 2011, MMH had 5,600 itinerant operations, whereas the TAF showed only 3,761 itinerant operations. This further validates the difference between the MMH / Brandley forecast and the TAF.
3-3.5.7 Peaking Characteristics When planning future airport facilities and determining adequacy of existing facilities, it is important to identify and project peak period activity levels. Peaking characteristics are developed for aircraft operations using the following methodologies:
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Annual operations are determined from previously described forecasts, and the peak month activity is typically considered to be approximately 10 percent of the year’s total activity. The average peak day is determined by dividing the peak month activity by 30. The peak hour percentages are applied to the projected average peak day operations. The peak hour operations typically range from 12 to 20 percent of the peak day operations.
The peak hour operations anticipated by this methodology range from 4 in 2010 to 7.5 in 2030. Forecast peak hour operations indicate that the existing runway will adequately serve the forecast aircraft during the forecast period without any significant delays.
3-3.5.8 Critical Aircraft F.A.A. defines the critical aircraft for planning purposes to be the largest aircraft group that has more than 500 operations per year. The aircraft operated by the airlines will meet this requirement and be the design aircraft. The design aircraft as of the base year 2010 will be the CRJ700 or Q400.
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TABLE NO. 3-2 - PEER MARKET COMPARISONS
Yampa Sun Glacier Aspen Eagle Montrose Mammoth Valley Valley Park 2010 217,434 204,675 111,770 95,622 53,871 174,163 20,564 Enplanements
2010 Population 15,932 54,216 23,592 41,830 22,740 93,849 13,185
Enplanements per 13.6 3.8 4.7 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.6 Population unit
2010 Skier Days 1,400,000 1,620,000 1,000,000 430,000 362,317 360,000 1,460,000
Enplanements per 0.16 0.13 0.11 0.22 0.15 0.48 0.01 Skier Day
1Q 2011 Load 64.6% 68.1% 71.5% 71.9% 66.1% 84.5% 61.5% Factor
Percent of Traffic 47.1% 73.7% 77.2% 46.2% 35.1% 22.7% 57.8% in 1st Quarter
1Q 2011 Average $248 $259 $177 $208 $178 $215 $115 Fare Source: Mammoth Lakes Economic Forecast & Revitalization Strategies; Diio Mi; US Census ALP Narrative Report - Peer Review - Mead & Hunt (February 2012)
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Yampa Valley Eagle County Regional Aspen-Pitkin CO Glacier Park International Friedman Memorial Montrose Regional Mammoth Yosemite Airport Enplaned Airline Total Enplaned Airline Total Enplaned Airline Total Enplaned Airline Total Enplaned Airline Total Enplaned Airline Total Itinerent Passengers Operations Operations Passengers Operations Operations Passengers Operations Operations Passengers Operations Operations Passengers Operations Operations Passengers Operations Operations Enplaned Passengers Airline Operations Operantions Local Operantions Total Operations Year TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF TAF Brandley TAF Brandley TAF Brandley TAF Brandley TAF Brandley Year 1976 11,500 5,157 109,525 31,657 18,093 16,008 16,141 1976 1977 8,109 4,604 93,369 38,082 19,000 16,422 9,836 1977 1978 12,175 4,448 128,824 43,542 22,000 23,352 16,626 1978 1979 15,070 2,947 137,632 51,372 24,000 32,736 16,230 1979 1980 12,012 14 132,128 39,141 14,924 26,963 2,373 1980 1981 9,801 0 112,149 36,690 5,680 23,097 5,161 1981 1982 3,984 13,453 120,539 41,039 2,587 21,581 5,681 1982 1983 1,296 0 127,674 53,158 12,384 35,333 3,950 1983 1984 22 0 153,971 52,751 25,240 24,110 402 1984 1985 132 0 173,189 53,743 29,537 19,900 2,183 1985 1986 573 0 190,709 57,052 21,833 21,375 4,403 1986 1987 24,495 0 257,311 47,044 29,007 22,850 3,053 1987 1988 35,544 63 227,475 57,317 37,218 24,325 3,211 1988 1989 45,419 300 214,841 67,473 39,912 25,800 6,986 1989 1990 44,862 1,800 7,630 8,398 4,814 20,664 214,067 11,052 41,259 69,776 12,270 65,190 34,712 124 46,066 24,120 0 28,448 5,247 2,900 17,030 4,000 23,930 1990 1991 59,355 3,932 8,256 29,749 1,484 21,234 204,137 12,935 47,662 79,069 12,465 64,715 38,938 25 53,719 25,425 0 23,014 5,897 3,000 17,030 4,000 24,030 1991 1992 55,953 3,668 6,442 34,558 1,458 21,208 234,511 14,228 47,889 85,914 10,500 40,700 50,614 26 65,672 28,330 10 25,910 5,777 3,000 17,030 4,000 24,030 1992 1993 63,866 3,668 6,442 53,200 2,048 21,798 250,981 14,102 47,315 88,937 10,500 40,700 54,066 30 63,019 37,096 40 25,940 9,328 3,000 17,030 4,000 24,030 1993 1994 62,778 3,918 6,692 62,347 1,755 6,425 251,533 13,956 45,438 102,995 11,400 40,500 65,336 38 66,931 36,053 60 27,812 8,169 1,500 9,030 3,000 13,530 1994 1995 81,549 8,982 11,806 77,167 6,699 27,399 204,907 8,894 43,934 114,845 10,670 62,050 63,109 199 54,245 40,867 160 19,610 7,518 1,500 9,030 3,000 13,530 1995 1996 95,643 10,518 13,960 109,118 3,097 25,458 206,672 10,166 42,614 121,176 11,450 58,730 67,179 25 71,223 43,284 100 23,217 1,762 1,500 9,100 3,000 13,600 1996 1997 105,906 7,138 10,602 164,415 4,364 29,511 217,343 14,396 44,612 133,275 8,660 55,460 60,356 14 64,320 55,591 104 23,540 0 1,200 9,050 3,000 13,250 1997 1998 104,428 5,146 8,635 173,041 5,944 30,030 251,448 16,945 47,067 133,502 13,450 76,015 60,771 2 61,984 62,721 106 23,744 0 1,200 9,050 3,000 13,250 1998 1999 109,066 5,436 8,950 172,429 7,847 33,307 219,909 11,036 44,510 142,698 13,730 64,610 66,996 3 58,296 72,119 107 23,969 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850 1999 2000 110,561 6,672 10,211 183,502 10,440 39,355 214,358 14,225 49,586 156,384 15,044 65,924 71,463 6 67,278 66,976 110 24,194 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850 2000 2001 102,290 5,670 11,278 173,478 10,327 39,267 363,654 15,843 46,042 159,376 15,044 65,924 63,540 172 52,375 71,098 2,000 23,964 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850 2001 2002 104,815 4,004 9,673 163,948 10,926 40,735 336,561 17,155 47,018 156,964 14,107 48,364 65,572 871 57,100 70,510 2,059 24,194 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850 2002 2003 100,475 4,098 9,828 166,416 11,270 43,341 192,251 16,629 43,780 169,265 15,914 50,761 72,621 1,301 44,473 67,813 2,081 24,387 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850 2003 2004 117,604 4,566 10,356 187,549 11,257 38,980 180,519 17,302 43,256 173,985 16,109 62,083 71,128 1,193 45,300 72,129 2,103 24,578 0 800 9,050 3,000 12,850 2004 2005 125,563 4,762 10,614 209,764 11,316 41,041 191,579 17,834 44,778 195,385 19,250 65,602 69,604 1,203 43,978 77,203 2,247 25,206 0 700 9,100 3,000 12,800 2005 2006 131,864 4,853 10,762 213,891 11,852 40,774 202,137 19,009 44,464 174,305 15,049 52,252 69,003 1,153 41,442 81,264 2,269 25,380 0 700 9,100 3,000 12,800 2006 2007 140,765 4,947 10,914 228,421 13,053 42,033 180,951 19,022 42,947 185,390 16,459 55,017 67,863 1,058 48,220 93,110 2,292 25,558 0 700 9,100 3,000 12,800 2007 2008 140,289 7,578 13,843 217,914 12,758 42,842 215,833 21,006 46,536 189,254 10,983 37,470 66,564 1,271 36,239 87,582 5,412 17,791 0 557 1,628 3,761 1,896 7,285 2008 2009 122,076 6,862 12,399 180,272 8,994 31,302 207,165 18,444 40,924 162,826 9,116 28,502 50,540 809 29,243 90,943 5,412 17,791 5,021 6,157 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2009 2010 110,715 6,862 12,399 201,484 11,380 35,061 226,680 18,297 38,292 172,371 8,868 29,267 52,827 998 31,450 94,849 5,054 22,505 18,252 19,798 1,748 1,300 3,761 5,600 1,896 600 7,405 7,500 2010 2011 105,781 6,993 12,585 193,743 10,664 32,484 211,244 17,755 37,121 178,935 8,836 28,150 52,075 706 28,304 92,414 5,103 22,684 23,770 26,196 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2011 2012 108,683 7,128 12,776 197,903 10,873 32,992 216,293 17,963 37,671 181,827 8,917 29,169 53,887 706 27,847 92,719 5,154 22,867 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2012 2013 111,666 7,264 12,969 202,156 11,087 33,223 221,463 18,174 38,032 184,792 8,998 29,283 55,760 706 28,175 93,031 5,203 23,049 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2013 2014 114,730 7,403 13,165 206,505 11,303 33,456 226,757 18,387 38,396 187,816 9,081 29,399 57,700 706 28,508 93,348 5,254 23,235 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2014 2015 117,879 6,546 13,365 210,953 11,527 33,697 232,177 18,604 38,766 190,898 9,164 29,515 59,706 706 28,844 93,672 5,307 23,426 23,770 56,000 1,748 2,500 3,761 6,100 1,896 640 7,405 9,140 2015 2016 121,115 7,690 13,568 215,502 11,755 33,942 237,727 18,822 39,138 194,042 9,250 29,634 61,782 706 29,188 94,003 5,358 23,616 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2016 2017 124,440 7,839 13,774 220,154 11,988 34,192 243,408 19,043 39,514 197,250 9,336 29,753 63,930 706 29,535 94,340 5,411 23,811 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2017 2018 127,856 7,991 13,985 224,908 12,227 34,448 249,225 19,269 39,896 200,523 9,423 29,873 66,154 706 29,886 94,682 5,464 24,008 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2018 2019 131,366 8,146 14,199 229,770 12,470 34,708 255,181 19,497 40,283 203,862 9,513 29,996 68,453 706 30,243 95,031 5,517 24,208 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2019 2020 134,973 8,304 14,417 234,738 12,717 34,972 261,279 19,728 40,674 207,266 9,604 30,120 70,834 706 30,605 95,388 5,570 24,410 23,770 85,000 1,748 3,700 3,761 6,430 1,896 690 7,405 10,820 2020 2021 138,677 8,466 14,639 239,820 12,969 35,241 267,523 19,963 41,069 210,737 9,696 30,245 73,297 706 30,972 95,751 5,626 24,617 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2021 2022 142,482 8,629 14,864 245,017 13,227 35,516 273,917 20,200 41,468 214,262 9,790 30,372 75,845 706 31,344 96,121 5,682 24,826 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2022 2023 146,392 8,794 15,091 250,333 13,489 35,795 280,463 20,441 41,872 217,876 9,885 30,501 78,484 706 31,723 96,499 5,738 25,038 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2023 2024 150,412 8,963 15,322 255,773 13,758 36,081 287,167 20,685 42,281 221,561 9,982 30,632 81,213 706 32,108 96,882 5,794 25,251 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2024 2025 154,542 9,133 15,554 261,335 14,032 36,372 294,030 20,934 42,695 225,319 10,080 30,764 84,039 706 32,496 97,275 5,850 25,467 23,770 118,000 1,748 4,900 3,761 6,900 1,896 740 7,405 12,540 2025 2026 158,784 9,307 15,790 267,021 14,310 36,667 301,058 21,186 43,114 229,153 10,180 30,898 86,963 706 32,891 97,675 5,906 25,685 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2026 2027 163,143 9,484 16,031 272,838 14,597 36,971 308,253 21,441 43,537 233,063 10,281 31,033 89,989 706 33,292 98,082 5,962 25,905 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2027 2028 167,622 9,666 16,277 278,785 14,891 37,282 315,620 21,701 43,967 237,050 10,383 31,169 93,120 706 33,698 98,497 6,019 26,129 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2028 2029 172,222 9,851 16,527 284,869 15,190 37,598 323,163 21,965 44,401 241,118 10,486 31,306 96,359 706 34,109 98,919 6,076 26,355 23,770 1,748 3,761 1,896 7,405 2029 2030 176,950 10,039 16,781 291,096 15,494 37,919 330,887 22,230 44,837 245,269 10,591 31,445 99,711 706 34,527 99,350 6,134 26,586 23,770 140,000 1,748 5,400 3,761 7,400 1,896 790 7,405 13,590 2030
Bold = Future Projection 3-17
q:\forecastingbymsb\mammoth simular airports alp 2012 4-23-12 3/13/12 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
Table No. 3-4 MMH / Brandley Forecasts
A. Forecast Levels Base Year: 2010
Annual Operations Base Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1 Yr. Base Yr. + 5 Yrs. Base Yr. + 10 Yrs.Base Yr. + 15 Yrs. Base Yr. to +20 Passenger Enplanements Air Carrier 19,798 26,196 56,000 85,000 118,000 140,000 Commuter 000000 TOTAL 19,798 26,196 56,000 85,000 118,000 140,000 Operations - Fixed Wing Itinerant Air carrier 1,300 1,600 2,500 3,700 4,900 5,400 Commuter/air taxi 000000 Total Commercial Operations 1,300 1,600 2,500 3,700 4,900 5,400 General aviation 5,600 5,700 6,000 6,430 6,900 7,400 Military 000000 Local General aviation 600 610 640 690 740 790 Military 000000 TOTAL OPERATIONS 7,500 7,910 9,140 10,820 12,540 13,590 Instrument Operations 2.9 3.0 3.5 6.4 6.9 7.5 Peak Hour Operations 000000 Cargo/mail (enplaned + deplaned tons) Based Aircraft - Fixed Wing Single Engine (Nonjet) 6 6 6 7 7 8 Multi Engine (Nonjet) 2 2 2 2 2 2 Jet Engine 000000 Other 000000 TOTAL 8 8 8 9 9 10 Helicopter* Based helicopters 0 0 0 0 0 0 Helicopter operations 0 0 0 0 0 0 TAF Total Operations TAF Based Aircraft
*Note: Helicopter based and operations are not included in data for total operations.
B. Operational Factors
Average Annual Base Yr. Level Base Yr. + 1 Yr. Base Yr. + 5 Yrs. Base Yr. + 10 Yrs.Base Yr. + 15 Yrs. Base Yr. to +20 Base Yr. to +5 Average aircraft size (seats) Air carrier 76 76 70 72 83 81 73 Commuter 0000000 Air taxi 0000000 Average enplaning load factor 40 45 59 55 54 48 43 Air carrier 40 45 59 55 54 48 43 Commuter 0000000 Air taxi 0000000 GA operations per based aircraft NA NA NA NA NA NA NA
Sources: F.A.A. Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) Mammoth Yosemite Airport Prepared by: Reinard W. Brandley, Consulting Airport Engineer
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-18 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
Table No. 3-5 Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH) Comparison of Airport Planning and TAF Forecasts of Based Fixed Wing Aircraft
Airport AF/TAF (% Year Forecast TAF Difference) Total Based Aircraft - Fixed Wing Base yr. - 2010 2010 8 4 100.0 Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 8 4 100.0 Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 9 4 125.0 Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 9 4 125.0 Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2030 10 4 150.0
Note: TAF data is on a U.S. government fiscal year basis (October through September).
Reason for discrepancy: 1. TAF assumed no increase in forecast annual operations since 1995. 2. Normal growth of airport operations expected to relate to population and employment growth.
Sources: F.A.A. Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH) Prepared by: Reinard W. Brandley, Consulting Airport Engineer
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-19 CHAPTER 3 – AVIATION FORECASTS
Table No. 3-6 Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH) Comparison of Airport Planning and TAF Forecasts of Annual Operations - Fixed Wing Aircraft
Airport AF/TAF (% Year Forecast TAF Difference) Passenger Enplanements Base yr. - 2010 2010 19,798 16,528 120 Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 56,000 16,528 339 Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 85,000 16,528 514 Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 118,000 16,528 714
Commercial Operations Base yr. - 2010 2010 1,300 120 1,083 Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 2,500 120 2,083 Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 3,700 120 3,083 Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 4,900 120 4,083
Total Operations Base yr. - 2010 2010 7,500 7,405 101 Base yr. + 5 yrs. 2015 9,140 7,405 123 Base yr. + 10 yrs. 2020 10,820 7,405 146 Base yr. + 15 yrs. 2025 12,540 7,405 169 Base yr. + 20 yrs. 2030 13,590 7,405 184
Note: TAF data is on a U.S. government fiscal year basis (October through September).
Reason for discrepancy: 1. TAF assumed no increase in forecast annual operations since 1995. 2. Normal growth of airport operations expected to relate to introduction of airline services, increased itinerant operations to provide access to recreational facilities, and population and employment growth.
Sources: F.A.A. Terminal Area Forecasts (TAF) Mammoth Yosemite Airport (MMH) Prepared by: Reinard W. Brandley, Consulting Airport Engineer
Mammoth Yosemite Airport Layout Plan May 2012 3-20