Across the 49Th Thunderstorms in the Northern Great Plains

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Across the 49Th Thunderstorms in the Northern Great Plains CORE Metadata, citation and similar papers at core.ac.uk Provided by UNL | Libraries University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Great Plains Quarterly Great Plains Studies, Center for Fall 1983 Across The 49th Thunderstorms In The Northern Great Plains Alec H. Paul University of Regina Follow this and additional works at: https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/greatplainsquarterly Part of the Other International and Area Studies Commons Paul, Alec H., "Across The 49th Thunderstorms In The Northern Great Plains" (1983). Great Plains Quarterly. 1696. https://digitalcommons.unl.edu/greatplainsquarterly/1696 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Great Plains Studies, Center for at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Great Plains Quarterly by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. ACROSS THE 49TH THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS ALECH. PAUL Hail, lightning, flash floods, erosion, severe the relatively sparsely populated north, most of gusty winds, and tornadoes produce multi­ the detailed research into the thunderstorms of million-dollar losses to the economy of the the plains has been done in a few limited re­ northern plains each summer. Research into gions, particularly in Oklahoma, Kansas, south­ these meteorological phenomena has been ern Illinois, and eastern Colorado. This article fragmented by the presence of political boun­ treats the thunderstorm hazard in the more daries in the Great Plains, especially the 49th northerly portion of the Great Plains, as shown parallel, which separates the United States and in Figure 1. As it is clear from my data that the Canada. Perceptions of and responses to the thunderstorm problem is common to both the thunderstorm hazard still differ north and American and Canadian sections of the northern south of the border. Tornadoes, for example, plains, I examine the sometimes different re­ have only recently appeared in the weather sponses to storm problems on either side of the forecasts for the Canadian prairies, and such 49th parallel. Finally, I show that a more uni­ responses to summer storms as weather modifi­ fied approach to the thunderstorm problem in cation experiments and hail insurance coverage the northern plains is emerging, as researchers have been made in different ways in the two on both sides of the international boundary countries. marshall their resources to produce a more Because the most spectacular manifestation effective system for monitoring and under­ of thunderstorm weather, the tornado, occurs standing the characteristics of storms and their most often in the southern and central plains, impact on the land and people of the plains. and because storms have traditionally been considered more severe in these areas than in THE SCALE OF THUNDERSTORM HAZARD Tornadoes and devastating hail and lightning Alec H. Paul is professor of geography at the University of Regina. He has published several storms vie with drought as the chief compo­ articles on hail and thunderstorms on the Cana­ nents of the "climatic image" of the southern dian prairies and has served as chief editor of and central Great Plains. Farther north, bliz­ Prairie Forum. zards and drought receive the most attention; 195 196 GREAT PLAINS QUARTERLY, FALL 1983 Montana and Wyoming. Changnon found that over the decade from 1960 to 1969, North Of Dakota led all other states in dollar losses to hail.3 Hail-insurance loss costs on the Cana­ .......... , dian prairies are similar to those immediately '. south of the 49th parallel. In view of the large \ \ area of cropland, it is not surprising that dollar losses are high. In Saskatchewan alone, crop­ . hail damage in the 1960s has been estimated at \ about one-seventh of the loss in the entire \ MONTANA 4 0', United States for the same period. Thus hail '- \ 0- • I remains an important hazard throughout the \ \ northern plains and into the Canadian prairies. \. WYOMING , Tornadoes are an occasional, unwelcome '-- -, 'I adjunct to severe thunderstorms. It has often been shown that tornadoes decrease in fre­ quency northward and northwestward from the FIG. 1. The study area, with existing and former hail-suppression projects. The larger "Tornado Alley" of the south-central Great circles indicate statewide programs financed by Plains.5 Gordon McKay and A. B. Lowe sug­ state funds; other symbols indicate projects of gested in 1960 that this decrease continues smaller scale. north of the 49th, with tornado frequency in western Canada at a maximum in southeastern Saskatchewan and southwestern Manitoba and thunderstorm weather has seemed less impor­ decreasing northwestward and northeastward.6 tant. Only recently has a more accurate assess­ Recent attempts at documenting tornado ment of the damage done by northern plains touchdowns on the Canadian prairies suggest thunderstorms begun to emerge. In Iowa, Steve that the frequency is higher than expected, and Eshelman and John Stanford investigated the probably not significantly lower than in the 1974 thunderstorm season and found a vast northern tier of Great Plains states.7 These and largely unsuspected amount of damage.1 states are regarded as an outlying extension of Recent work on the Canadian prairies has pro­ Tornado Alley, with a local maximum of duced similar results.2 This research suggests tornado frequency in eastern Montana and that the decline in thunderstorm severity from western North Dakota.8 The U.S. Weather Kansas and Colorado northward may be less Service has developed official watches and than is usually perceived. One reason for this warnings for tornadoes. By contrast, the word perception is that population density, an im­ tornado began to appear in weather forecasts portant factor in accumulated storm damages, for the Canadian prairies only in the late 1970s, is relatively low in the northern plains. despite the fact that the largest death toll­ Crop losses caused by hail in the northern thirty persons-for a single tornado anywhere in plains states and on the Canadian prairies are the northern plains occurred in Regina, Sas­ very high. This region is the spring wheat belt, katchewan, in 1912. Canadian popular opinion where the hail season and the growing season still tends to relegate tornadoes to the United closely coincide. Stanley Changnon's study of States. hail losses in the United States showed that Thunderstorm-produced floods have their loss costs for crop-hail insurance (the ratio of most dramatic consequences in mountainous or losses paid to the amount of risk underwritten) at least hilly terrain, where they cause devas­ in the northern plains states are high, with some tating flash floods in small drainage basins. The of the largest values being found in eastern Rapid City disaster of June 1972 and the Big ACROSS THE 49TH 197 Thompson Canyon flood of July 1976 are This brief overview of the thunderstorm cases in point.9 However, heavy thunderstorm hazard in the northern plains states and the rains produce floods with occasional fatalities Canadian prairies lacks a detailed dollar assess­ and great damage to property, crops, and farm­ ment. Preliminary work suggests, however, that land throughout the flatter sections of the total thunderstorm losses in the region of this North American interior. These are "million­ study amount to millions of dollars annually, dollar rains," in the negative sense (table 1). a sum large enough to stimulate increasing ef­ Like hail and tornadoes, they occur on both forts to reduce and adjust to thunderstorm sides of the 49th parallel. losses.12 Other thunderstorm hazards are lightning and high winds. The compiled data on their RESPONSE TO THE HAIL HAZARD effects in the northern plains are scanty at best, but local newspapers appear to be a promising The general behavior of severe hailstorms in source, according to studies done by Dan Blair the North American interior appears fairly in southern Saskatchewan.10 Thunderstorm consistent. Most storms produce long, narrow winds and lightning strikes present major prob­ tracks of hail across the countryside ("hail­ lems for power and telephone companies. Total swaths"), although large convective complexes losses due to wind and lightning require much producing hail "areas" rather than clear-cut research to compile; one of the few thorough swaths also occur. Hail is a significant hazard studies of lightning-produced power outages is in all parts of the region under study, and by Steve La Dochy, for Manitoba.ll Table 2 there are a variety of ways to cope with the illustrates some examples of lightning and problem. Insurance, for example, is available thunderstorm wind losses in the northern throughout the region, but premiums are so plains. high in some localities that many farmers TABLE 1 EXAMPLES OF LOSSES FROM THUNDERSTORM RAINS Estimated Losses Rainfall Location Date (Million $) (Inches) Minneapolis-St. Paul area 30-31 August 1978 > 5 6 Rochester, Minnesota 5 July 1978 >50 6 Southeastern North Dakota 28-29 June 1975 >50 ~ 12 Deadwood, South Dakota 14 June 1976 6 Lethbridge, Alberta 22 August 1978 1 3 Regina, Saskatchewan 25June 1975 12 6 Winnipeg, Manitoba 20 May 1974 7 1 SOURCES; The information in this table was taken from Storm Data, a monthly publication of the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, from insurance estimates (revised rather than initial) reported in news­ papers, and from K. A. Fluto and P. B. Lemieux, The 1974 Victoria
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