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Taylor Collison Ltd MARK GORDON [email protected] +612 9377 1500 www.taylorcollison.com.au Ramelius Resources Limited (RMS) 17 August 2020 The Quiet Achiever Recommendation: Buy Our View Summary (AUD) Ramelius Resources Limited (ASX: RMS, “Ramelius”) has been the quiet Market capitalisation (undiluted) $1,555m achiever of the ASX-listed Western Australian gold producers, being a continuous Share price (August 14, 2020) $1.93 producer since 2007, and now on track to produce over 250,000 ozpa from its Valuation per share (medium term) $3.00 100% owned Mount Magnet and Edna May processing hubs. Recent growth has 52 week low $0.7625 resulted in Ramelius entering the Top 20 of ASX-listed miners, and the Top 10 52 week high $2.40 gold producers by market capitalisation. Cash and bullion (30/6/20) $185.5m The Company has historically met or exceeded cost and production guidance, Debt (30/6/20) $24.4m confirming the quality of management and confidence in the outlook for the Ordinary shares (undiluted) 806.0m Company. In addition, the Company has a history of increasing Reserves on a Y Performance rights 12.05m on Y basis, including through canny acquisitions, with examples being the Vivien Fully diluted 818.0m Gold Project, and the take-over of Spectrum Metals (ASX: SPX, “Spectrum”), the Unlisted options (total) 0m owner of the high grade Penny Gold Project. which has provided the catalyst for the recent rerating. Share price graph (AUD) The rerating was also reinforced by the market’s positive response to the recently released FY2020 production results, and the updated Life of Mine Plan (“LoMP”). One factor that may have historically held the Company’s share price back has been having 3 to 4 years Reserves in advance, with some thinking this too low. However, time has shown that this has not been an impediment to growth. In valuing Ramelius and comparing with peers, we have used a revenue less AISC (approximates EBITDA) multiple. Our analysis of the larger ASX-listed WA gold miners shows that they trade largely at a multiple of between 8x and 12x. Using the Company’s FY2021 mid-point production and cost guidance, a multiple of 8x and a gold price of A$2,700/oz, we could expect, discounting unforeseen events, that the Company’s market capitalisation has the potential to reach A$2.4 billion in the medium term. This equates to a share price of A$3.00 using the current share structure. The Company’s market capitalisation and strong balance sheet also places it in Directors & Management an ideal position to execute value accretive acquisitions – such acquisitions could Mr Kevin Lines Chairman include current producers to provide Ramelius with a third processing hub, which Mr Mark Zeptner Managing Director would lead to a step change in production. Mr Michael Bohm Non-Executive Director This provides significant upside above what we see in current forecasts. Mr David Southam Non-Executive Director Key Points Dr Natalia Streltsova Non-Executive Director Mr Richard Jones Manager – Legal, • – Ramelius has generally shown steady Consistent production growth Company Secretary production growth since operations commenced in 2006 , reaching 230 koz Mr Tim Manners Chief Financial Officer in FY2020, and forecast to be over 250 kozpa over the next four years at least. Mr Duncan Coutts Chief Operating Officer Mr Kevin Seymour GM - Exploration • Consistently replacing Reserves – The Company has a history of increasing Reserves on a Y on Y basis • Consistently meeting guidance – Ramelius has a history of consistently meeting guidance as to production and costs, which in our view highlights Top Shareholders strong and rigorous management, and provides the market with comfort. Van Eck Associates 9.70% • Strong balance sheet – With current net cash and bullion of ~$160 million Ruffer LLP 8.00% the Company is well funded to undertake currently planned development Vinva Investments 4.05% and exploration activities, as well as fund any other opportunities that may The Vanguard Group 3.37% arise – we have seen a steady increase in cash over recent years. Top 20 37.59% • Strong outlook for gold – Global factors, including COVID-19, strategic Directors and Management 0.86% uncertainty in the Asia-Pacific region, low interest rates and wholesale printing of money amongst other factors are resulting in a significant appreciation in the gold price, and hence the leveraged gold equities. We cannot see any significant change in the short to medium term. • Experienced board and management – Company personnel have extensive technical and corporate experience in the gold mining sector. TAYLOR COLLISON LTD. www.taylorcollison.com.au ABN 53008172450 AFSL 247083 1 Ramelius Resources Limited (RMS) 17 August 2020 Valuation and Peers Ramelius is one of the top 10 ASX-listed Western Australian gold producers by market capitalisation, as well as by production. The three largest companies with Western Australian production are Newcrest, Northern Star and Evolution, however with Newcrest and Evolution having the bulk of their production outside of Western Australia. Table 1 presents an analysis of who we consider to be Ramelius’ peers, being mid-tier gold producers with production largely in Western Australia. We note that the three companies mentioned above are not included, as well as St Barbara, which has most operations outside of Australia. The table includes: • Company structure, • Hedging summary, • 2020 production and cost, including AISC margin analysis, • 2021 production and cost guidance, including AISC margin analysis; and, • 2019 Resources and Reserves. Our view is that an effective valuation method for the larger miners is a multiple of the AISC margin (revenue less quoted AISC, which in effect approximates the EBITDA). This also allows for a comparison of relative valuations between companies throughout the year, with AISC and gold sales figures being given quarterly. Although the AISC quoted by most companies includes some non-cash components, including inventory changes, the quantum of these varies from year to year, and they generally make little change on the overall numbers. As such we have not adjusted our figures for these non-cash components. Also, there is generally a minor difference between ounces produced (on which the AISC is calculated) and gold sold (on which the average selling price is calculated), however these difference in most cases are immaterial. A traditional analytical tool is the trailing enterprise value (“EV”) to EBITDA multiple, which here we have changed to EV to AISC margin multiple for the FY2020 results. Although not traditional, we have also looked at the undiluted market capitalisation (“MC”) to AISC margin multiple.as another indicator, particularly for forecasting the market capitalisation without considering the EV given the uncertainty in future amounts of cash and debt. Using the AISC margin for FY2020 (EBITDA has yet to be released), the following was calculated as of CoB on August 14, 2020: • EV to AISC margin multiple average of 8.68, with a range of 6.01 to 12.06, • MC to AISC margin multiple average of 9.43, with a range of 7.06 to 12.77, • The EV to AISC margin multiple for Ramelius was 7.12, and, • The MC to AISC margin multiple for Ramelius was 7.94. This indicates that, for Ramelius’ peers, the MC to AISC margin multiple may make a relatively quick and, given the generally indicative nature of price forecasting, a reasonable forecasting tool. We further tested this by analysing share price falls/appreciations following the release of the FY2019 results. The market capitalisation of five of the six companies analysed moved to within the range estimated (with an average of 9.99x), with the sixth being the largest underperformer, and which fell to a market capitalisation of ~7x AISC margin. We have used this to provide a medium-term price forecast for Ramelius. this is predicated on an 8x MC to AISC margin multiple (close to the current multiple), an average Australian denominated gold price of $2,700/oz, forwards being delivered when due, and Ramelius meeting guidance. Any corporate action by the Company during the upcoming year will of course affect this. This results in a base case medium term valuation of A$3.00/share. Sensitivity analysis indicates that there is a $0.16 change in share price for every $100 change in the Australian dollar gold price, and a $0.37/share change for each 1x change in MC to AISC margin multiple. TAYLOR COLLISON LTD. www.taylorcollison.com.au ABN 53008172450 AFSL 247083 2 Ramelius Resources Limited (RMS) 17 August 2020 Table 1: Ramelius peer comparison (Source: IRESS, Company reports, Taylor Collison analysis) Ramelius Peer Comparison Parameter Ramelius Silver Lake Saracen Regis Resources Gold Road Westgold Code RMS SLR SAR RRL GOR WGX 50% Super Pit Based on 50% Notes share not ownership, Jan to included Dec FY Structure and EV On Issue 805.95 m 880.25 m 1,102.99 m 508.35 m 879.92 m 420.23 m Last Price $1.93 $2.26 $5.61 $5.55 $1.73 $2.20 Market Capitalisation (m) $1,555 $1,989 $6,188 $2,821 $1,522 $925 Cash & Bullion (June 30, 2020, m) $186 $269 $369 $209 $109 $137 Debt (June 30, 2020, m)) $24 $0 $321 $0 $25 $0 Enterprise Value (m) $1,394 $1,720 $6,140 $2,612 $1,438 $788 Dividend/Share $0.01 FF $0.00 $0.00 $0.16 FF $0.00 $0.00 FY2019, paid Oct Dec 19 interim of Note re Dividend 2019 $0.08/share Hedging Ounces 247,350 155,568 493,200 399,494 87,800 200,000 Average Price $2,135 $2,147 $2,094 $1,614 $1,847 $2,062 Production and Costs - 2020 FY2020 Gold Sales (includes other metal 230,426 263,362
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