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APPENDIX E History and Projection of Traffic, Toll Revenues and Expenses and Review of Physical Conditions of the Facilities Of

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APPENDIX E History and Projection of Traffic, Toll Revenues and Expenses and Review of Physical Conditions of the Facilities Of APPENDIX E History and Projection of Traffic, Toll Revenues and Expenses and Review of Physical Conditions of the Facilities of Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority Prepared for: Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority Prepared by: Stantec Consulting Services, Inc. April 30, 2015 HISTORY AND PROJECTION OF TRAFFIC, TOLL REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS OF THE FACILITIES OF TRIBOROUGH BRIDGE AND TUNNEL AUTHORITY TABLE OF CONTENTS Page TRANSPORTATION INFRASTRUCTURE ........................................................................................................... E-1 Triborough Bridge and Tunnel Authority (TBTA) .......................................................................... E-1 Metropolitan Area Arterial Network ............................................................................................. E-4 Other Regional Toll Facilities .......................................................................................................... E-4 Regional Public Transportation ..................................................................................................... E-5 Potential Regional Tolling Proposals ............................................................................................. E-5 TOLL COLLECTION ON THE TBTA FACILITIES ............................................................................................... E-6 Present and Proposed Toll Structures and Operation .............................................................. E-6 E-ZPass Electronic Toll Collection System .................................................................................. E-12 TBTA’s Role in E-ZPass..................................................................................................................... E-14 Passenger Car Toll Rate Trends and Inflation ........................................................................... E-15 HISTORICAL TRAFFIC, REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND ESTIMATED/BUDGETED NUMBERS FOR 2014 .................................................................................................................................................. E-18 Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2004 to 2014 ...................................................................................... E-20 Traffic by Facility and Vehicle Class, 2014 ................................................................................ E-24 Monthly Traffic, 2014 ..................................................................................................................... E-25 Changes in Monthly Traffic, 2013 to 2014 ................................................................................. E-26 Operating Expenses, 2004 to 2014 ............................................................................................. E-26 FACTORS AFFECTING TRAFFIC GROWTH ................................................................................................. E-29 Employment, Population and Motor Vehicle Registrations .................................................. E-29 Fuel Conditions ............................................................................................................................... E-37 Toll Impacts and Elasticity ............................................................................................................ E-38 Availability of Capacity on TBTA Facilities ................................................................................ E-41 TBTA and Regional Operational and Construction Impacts................................................. E-41 Summary of Assumptions and Conditions ................................................................................ E-53 PROJECTED TRAFFIC, REVENUES, AND EXPENSES ................................................................................... E-56 Estimated Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2015 ................................................................................. E-56 Traffic and Toll Revenue at Current Tolls ................................................................................... E-58 Traffic and Toll Revenue with Assumed 2017 Toll Increase .................................................... E-58 Effects of Second Avenue Subway Construction in Forecast Years ................................... E-61 Operating Expenses ...................................................................................................................... E-61 Net Revenues from Toll Operations ............................................................................................ E-62 REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS .......................................................................................................... E-63 Review of Inspection Reports ...................................................................................................... E-64 Other System-wide Improvements ............................................................................................. E-73 Long-Term Outlook for TBTA Facilities ......................................................................................... E-76 i HISTORY AND PROJECTION OF TRAFFIC, TOLL REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS OF THE FACILITIES OF TRIBOROUGH BRIDGE AND TUNNEL AUTHORITY LIST OF TABLES Page Table 1 Current Toll Rates at TBTA Facilities, Effective March 22, 2015 ............................................... E-7 Table 2 E-ZPass Participation Rates .......................................................................................................... E-13 Table 3 Historical Trends in Cash and E-ZPass Passenger Car Toll Rates ........................................... E-16 Table 4 E-ZPass Passenger Toll Rates versus Consumer Price Index ................................................... E-17 Table 5 Annual Toll-Paying Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2004 to 2014 ................................................... E-21 Table 6 Summary of Annual Paid Traffic and Toll Revenue, 2004 to 2014........................................ E-22 Table 7 Actual Changes in January – March Traffic, 2014 to 2015 ................................................... E-23 Table 8 Traffic by Facility and Vehicle Class, 2014 ................................................................................ E-24 Table 9 Monthly Traffic Variations, 2014 .................................................................................................. E-25 Table 10 Changes in Monthly Average Daily Traffic, 2013 to 2014 ................................................... E-26 Table 11 Historical Operating Expenses, 2004 to 2014 ......................................................................... E-27 Table 12 Employment Trends .................................................................................................................... E-30 Table 13 Employment Projections ............................................................................................................ E-31 Table 14 Labor Force Conditions, 2010 & 2014 ...................................................................................... E-32 Table 15 Population Trends........................................................................................................................ E-34 Table 16 Population Projections ............................................................................................................... E-35 Table 17 Motor Vehicle Registrations ...................................................................................................... E-36 Table 18 New York City Motor Vehicle Registrations, 2009 to 2013 ................................................... E-36 Table 19 Elasticity Factors .......................................................................................................................... E-40 Table 20 Estimated Percent Change in Average Toll Rates and Traffic in 2017 ............................. E-40 Table 21 Estimated Changes in Annual Traffic, 2014 to 2015 ............................................................. E-57 Table 22 Estimated 2015 Toll-Paying Traffic and Toll Revenue ........................................................... E-57 Table 23 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast, Constant Tolls ................................................................. E-59 Table 24 Traffic and Toll Revenue Forecast, with Assumed 2017 Toll Increase ............................... E-60 Table 25 Projected Operating Expenses ................................................................................................ E-62 Table 26 Net Toll Revenue Forecast......................................................................................................... E-62 Table 27 Opening Dates of TBTA Facilities .............................................................................................. E-63 Table 28 Capital Investments by Facility, 1992 to 2014 ........................................................................ E-64 Table 29 Facility Inspection Firms .............................................................................................................. E-66 LIST OF FIGURES Page Figure 1 Location Map ................................................................................................................................. E-2 Figure 2A/2B Aggregated TBTA Facilities Paid Traffic and Toll Revenue, 1970 to 2014 ................. E-19 ii HISTORY AND PROJECTION OF TRAFFIC, TOLL REVENUES AND EXPENSES AND REVIEW OF PHYSICAL CONDITIONS
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