POST Briefing Note 21

INFORMATION FOR MEMBERS Briefing Note From the 21 Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology February 1991 OIL FIRES IN KUWAIT IRAQ IRAN IRAQ KUWAIT ARABIAN GULF SAUDI ARABIA In addition to the military and economic considera • intensity of the fire, tions, destruction of Kuwaiti oil wells and the result • how long the fires will rage, ing fires would generate large amounts of atmos • atmospheric circulation. pheric pollution. In recent weeks there has been considerable speculation on the local, regional and Amounts of oil even global environmental impacts of such fires. Various estimates have been used in the press to date for the amount of oil which could be released and This briefing note discusses the range of pos burned in the event of oil fields being sabotaged. These sible effects and sets out the main considera range between 2 and 10 million barrels per day. The as tions involved in predicting the environmental sumption in a recent international meeting in London effects of such sabotage. was that 3 million barrels per day would be released - stated to be the output from Kuwait at the start of the INFORMATION REQUIRED Iraqi occupation. The Kuwaiti oil company states that the maximum The environmental effects of setting fire to the oil wells production was nearer 1.5 million barrels per day at the in Kuwait depends on the following variables: time of the invasion, produced from 800-1, 000 wells in the oil fields shown in the Figure. Since then, all but 35 • the rate at which oil is released, wells are believed to have been temporarily shut down • amounts of pollutants (sulphur dioxide, carbon and the production reduced to around 85, 000 barrels dioxide, nitrogen oxides and soot) generated, per day. P.O.S.T. Briefing Note 21 February 1991 A key factor in predicting the consequences of sabotage Carbon Dioxide. Most of the carbon in the oil will finish is that oil will only automatically flow from a damaged up as carbon dioxide after burning. If it is assumed that well head if the subterranean reservoir is under pres 90% ends up as carbon dioxide, 0. 75 million tonnes of sure. Of Kuwait's total of 1300 oil wells, 750 are under carbon would be converted to carbon dioxide for each natural pressure, and as many as a quarter of the million tonnes of oil burned. operational wells would not release large amounts of oil even if sabotaged. Other wells under high natural Soot. Soot in the smoke can be formed up to a maxi pressure could produce increased oil flows if the control mum of around 10% of the oil being burnt, but this valves were removed, but on balance, it appears that depends very much on the manner of burning. A well- the pre-invasion production figure of 1.5 million barrels aerated gusher of light oil would burn much more per day would represent a reasonable upper limit to the cleanly and generate much less smoke than a heavier possible oil flow. This equates to 210, 000 tonnes per day oil, or where oil seeps over the sand and then burns or 76 million tonnes per year. from the ground. The figure of 10% is thus an upper limit, and lower rates of 3-4% are seen as more realistic Any higher estimates would have to involve not only by some scientists and oil experts. the reopening of wells shut down since the invasion, but also restoring closed and abandoned wells in order The amounts of these pollutants released if 1. 5 million to increase the flow purely for sabotage purposes. barrels of oil per day were to burn, are given in Table 1. Abandoned wells are generally sealed with concrete For the reasons already given, this is likely to be an and would require redrilling and considerable techni upper limit, not a realistic estimate of the amounts cal expertise to reopen. which could be involved. Moreover, experience from WWII when the Japanese Fire Intensity attempted to set fire to oil wells in Brunei suggests that setting and maintaining a well fire can be difficult. The intensity of the fire determines the height to which Although Brunei crude oil is heavier (and thus less the smoke penetrates in the atmosphere. If the smoke readily flammable) than Kuwait oil, this experience has sufficient 'lift' to pass through the tropopause (12- suggests that not all sabotaged wells would burn. 14km high) and enter the stratosphere (over 15 km above ground), then it is insulated from most of the Further quantities of oil do, however, exist in storage at efficient scavenging processes in the atmosphere (rain the three Kuwaiti refineries and their associated crude etc. ) and will stay in the atmosphere for considerable oil tank farms. It is not known how much oil is present, lengths of time and spread globally. If the smoke stays but storage capacity of up to 15 million barrels is in in the troposphere (below 12 km), much of it will fall place. Were these to be sabotaged or bombed during out, or be washed out, locally or regionally. hostilities, a potential amount equivalent to 10 days' maximum production (at 1. 5 million barrels per day) In the early 1980's, the prospect was raised of a 'nuclear could be burned. At present there are fires at two of the winter' being triggered by the smoke and dust put into refineries (as well as in the Wafra field), but these are the atmosphere after a nuclear war. This possibility was believed to be localised to individual tanks or other extensively investigated by scientists1, and work car units of equipment (e. g. oil/water separators). ried out (based on models and studies of large fires) to find out what conditions were necessary for smoke to Pollutants Generated penetrate into the stratosphere - including smoke from urban fires containing burning oil. The findings of these The amounts of pollutants generated when oil burns studies can thus help predict the fate of any smoke depend on the type of oil, the amount burned and the generated from the Kuwait oil field, regardless of the manner in which it bums. Further assumptions thus fact that a 'nuclear war' is not in process. have to be made. Fire intensities can be expressed in terms of the amount Sulphur and Nitrogen Dioxides. It is a fair assumption of heat generated for each square metre area - e. g. in that most of the sulphur in the oil would be converted kilowatts per square metre. The nuclear winter studies to sulphur dioxide on burning. Since Kuwaiti crude suggest that fire intensities of 40 to 90 kilowatts per contains 2. 5-3% sulphur, each million tonnes of oil square metre are needed to penetrate to the strato would generate 50-60, 000 tonnes of sulphur dioxide. sphere. A single oil well fire might generate a million Nitrogen oxides are generated both from the nitrogen kilowatts overall which, as a single point source, might content of the fuel and from nitrogen in the air. The 1. The Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War (SCOPE study No 28, 1985) was the focus of studies carried out from 1983 throughout the nitrogen content of the oil itself is reported to be low world and coordinated from the University of Essex. This gave hospital (0. 14%), but the Meteorological Office estimates that ity to the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment altogether up to 6, 000 tonnes of nitrogen might be (SCOPE), an international body of scientists which has worked on major converted to oxides for each million tonnes of oil burned. environmental problems for the last 25 years. P.O.S.T. Briefing Note 21 February 1991 Table 1 If the fire cannot be extinguished by explosives (e. g. MAXIMUM QUANTITIES OF POLLUTANTS LIKELY TO BE because it would be re-ignited by another fire nearby), GENERATED BY OIL FIRES IN KUWAIT(tonnes). the well would have to be sealed by a much longer and Pollutant Each Day One Year more laborious method. A new well would have to be drilled diagonally as close as possible to intercept the Sulphur 12,000(as SO, ) 4.2 million Dioxide burning well within its underground reservoir. After the connection is made, fluids and/or cement are pumped Carbon 160,000 (as C) 57 million in and flow into the uncontrolled well, gradually stop Dioxide ping the oil flow. This technique is time-consuming and Nitrogen expensive, and it might not be possible to attack all of Oxides 300-1,300 (as N) 0. 1-0.5 million a large number of fires simultaneously. Estimates of the Smoke 6-21,000 (as C) 2.3-7. 6 million time taken to extinguish many fires have thus ranged from a few months to a year. The Kuwaiti Government Upper limit based on burning 1. 5 million barrels per day (210,000 tonnes per day) has stated that it has already taken steps to stockpile resources to tackle any fires as speedily as possible. lift the plume to a height of 1 km or so. However, some have suggested that the combination of many wells Atmospheric Circulation Models ablaze together could generate sufficient heat to carry smoke much higher. Whether this was feasible would The 'nuclear winter' studies already mentioned, in depend on how many wells existed close enough to act volved complicated mathematical models describing as one large blaze. the rise of smoke, its spread around the world and its effects through blocking out the sun's light, reducing In Kuwait, there is on average a spacing of a kilometre the earth's temperature, and affecting climate.

Load more