INFORMATION FOR MEMBERS Briefing Note From the 21 Parliamentary Office of Science and Technology February 1991 OIL FIRES IN KUWAIT

IRAQ IRAN

IRAQ

KUWAIT

ARABIAN GULF

SAUDI ARABIA

In addition to the military and economic considera­ • intensity of the fire, tions, destruction of Kuwaiti oil wells and the result­ • how long the fires will rage, ing fires would generate large amounts of atmos­ • atmospheric circulation. pheric pollution. In recent weeks there has been considerable speculation on the local, regional and Amounts of oil even global environmental impacts of such fires. Various estimates have been used in the press to date for the amount of oil which could be released and This briefing note discusses the range of pos­ burned in the event of oil fields being sabotaged. These sible effects and sets out the main considera­ range between 2 and 10 million barrels per day. The as­ tions involved in predicting the environmental sumption in a recent international meeting in London effects of such sabotage. was that 3 million barrels per day would be released - stated to be the output from Kuwait at the start of the INFORMATION REQUIRED Iraqi occupation.

The Kuwaiti oil company states that the maximum The environmental effects of setting fire to the oil wells production was nearer 1.5 million barrels per day at the in Kuwait depends on the following variables: time of the invasion, produced from 800-1, 000 wells in the oil fields shown in the Figure. Since then, all but 35 • the rate at which oil is released, wells are believed to have been temporarily shut down • amounts of pollutants (sulphur dioxide, carbon and the production reduced to around 85, 000 barrels dioxide, nitrogen oxides and soot) generated, per day. P.O.S.T. Briefing Note 21 February 1991

A key factor in predicting the consequences of sabotage Carbon Dioxide. Most of the carbon in the oil will finish is that oil will only automatically flow from a damaged up as carbon dioxide after burning. If it is assumed that well head if the subterranean reservoir is under pres­ 90% ends up as carbon dioxide, 0. 75 million tonnes of sure. Of Kuwait's total of 1300 oil wells, 750 are under carbon would be converted to carbon dioxide for each natural pressure, and as many as a quarter of the million tonnes of oil burned. operational wells would not release large amounts of oil even if sabotaged. Other wells under high natural Soot. Soot in the smoke can be formed up to a maxi­ pressure could produce increased oil flows if the control mum of around 10% of the oil being burnt, but this valves were removed, but on balance, it appears that depends very much on the manner of burning. A well- the pre-invasion production figure of 1.5 million barrels aerated gusher of light oil would burn much more per day would represent a reasonable upper limit to the cleanly and generate much less smoke than a heavier possible oil flow. This equates to 210, 000 tonnes per day oil, or where oil seeps over the sand and then burns or 76 million tonnes per year. from the ground. The figure of 10% is thus an upper limit, and lower rates of 3-4% are seen as more realistic Any higher estimates would have to involve not only by some scientists and oil experts. the reopening of wells shut down since the invasion, but also restoring closed and abandoned wells in order The amounts of these pollutants released if 1. 5 million to increase the flow purely for sabotage purposes. barrels of oil per day were to burn, are given in Table 1. Abandoned wells are generally sealed with concrete For the reasons already given, this is likely to be an and would require redrilling and considerable techni­ upper limit, not a realistic estimate of the amounts cal expertise to reopen. which could be involved. Moreover, experience from WWII when the Japanese Fire Intensity attempted to set fire to oil wells in Brunei suggests that setting and maintaining a well fire can be difficult. The intensity of the fire determines the height to which Although Brunei crude oil is heavier (and thus less the smoke penetrates in the atmosphere. If the smoke readily flammable) than Kuwait oil, this experience has sufficient 'lift' to pass through the tropopause (12- suggests that not all sabotaged wells would burn. 14km high) and enter the stratosphere (over 15 km above ground), then it is insulated from most of the Further quantities of oil do, however, exist in storage at efficient scavenging processes in the atmosphere (rain the three Kuwaiti refineries and their associated crude etc. ) and will stay in the atmosphere for considerable oil tank farms. It is not known how much oil is present, lengths of time and spread globally. If the smoke stays but storage capacity of up to 15 million barrels is in in the troposphere (below 12 km), much of it will fall place. Were these to be sabotaged or bombed during out, or be washed out, locally or regionally. hostilities, a potential amount equivalent to 10 days' maximum production (at 1. 5 million barrels per day) In the early 1980's, the prospect was raised of a 'nuclear could be burned. At present there are fires at two of the winter' being triggered by the smoke and dust put into refineries (as well as in the Wafra field), but these are the atmosphere after a nuclear war. This possibility was believed to be localised to individual tanks or other extensively investigated by scientists1, and work car­ units of equipment (e. g. oil/water separators). ried out (based on models and studies of large fires) to find out what conditions were necessary for smoke to Pollutants Generated penetrate into the stratosphere - including smoke from urban fires containing burning oil. The findings of these The amounts of pollutants generated when oil burns studies can thus help predict the fate of any smoke depend on the type of oil, the amount burned and the generated from the Kuwait oil field, regardless of the manner in which it bums. Further assumptions thus fact that a 'nuclear war' is not in process. have to be made. Fire intensities can be expressed in terms of the amount Sulphur and Nitrogen Dioxides. It is a fair assumption of heat generated for each square metre area - e. g. in that most of the sulphur in the oil would be converted kilowatts per square metre. The nuclear winter studies to sulphur dioxide on burning. Since Kuwaiti crude suggest that fire intensities of 40 to 90 kilowatts per contains 2. 5-3% sulphur, each million tonnes of oil square metre are needed to penetrate to the strato­ would generate 50-60, 000 tonnes of sulphur dioxide. sphere. A single oil well fire might generate a million Nitrogen oxides are generated both from the nitrogen kilowatts overall which, as a single point source, might content of the fuel and from nitrogen in the air. The 1. The Environmental Consequences of Nuclear War (SCOPE study No 28, 1985) was the focus of studies carried out from 1983 throughout the nitrogen content of the oil itself is reported to be low world and coordinated from the University of Essex. This gave hospital­ (0. 14%), but the Meteorological Office estimates that ity to the Scientific Committee on Problems of the Environment altogether up to 6, 000 tonnes of nitrogen might be (SCOPE), an international body of scientists which has worked on major converted to oxides for each million tonnes of oil burned. environmental problems for the last 25 years. P.O.S.T. Briefing Note 21 February 1991

Table 1 If the fire cannot be extinguished by explosives (e. g. MAXIMUM QUANTITIES OF POLLUTANTS LIKELY TO BE because it would be re-ignited by another fire nearby), GENERATED BY OIL FIRES IN KUWAIT(tonnes). the well would have to be sealed by a much longer and Pollutant Each Day One Year more laborious method. A new well would have to be drilled diagonally as close as possible to intercept the Sulphur 12,000(as SO, ) 4.2 million Dioxide burning well within its underground reservoir. After the connection is made, fluids and/or cement are pumped Carbon 160,000 (as C) 57 million in and flow into the uncontrolled well, gradually stop­ Dioxide ping the oil flow. This technique is time-consuming and Nitrogen expensive, and it might not be possible to attack all of Oxides 300-1,300 (as N) 0. 1-0.5 million a large number of fires simultaneously. Estimates of the Smoke 6-21,000 (as C) 2.3-7. 6 million time taken to extinguish many fires have thus ranged from a few months to a year. The Kuwaiti Government Upper limit based on burning 1. 5 million barrels per day (210,000 tonnes per day) has stated that it has already taken steps to stockpile resources to tackle any fires as speedily as possible. lift the plume to a height of 1 km or so. However, some have suggested that the combination of many wells Atmospheric Circulation Models ablaze together could generate sufficient heat to carry smoke much higher. Whether this was feasible would The 'nuclear winter' studies already mentioned, in­ depend on how many wells existed close enough to act volved complicated mathematical models describing as one large blaze. the rise of smoke, its spread around the world and its effects through blocking out the sun's light, reducing In Kuwait, there is on average a spacing of a kilometre the earth's temperature, and affecting climate. between adjacent wells. Even if 100 wells were close enough to combine to give one plume (burning from an The models of atmospheric circulation needed to make area 10 km square), their combined burning would give predictions of the possible climatic effects require the an average heat intensity of around 1 kilowatt per very large computers used for modelling the global square metre. At this level of intensity, it is most un­ weather and climate (see POST Briefing Note 16). Such likely that smoke would reach the stratosphere, and models are used by the Meteorological Office and by would probably rise only 1 km or so. The only exception overseas centres such as the US Lawrence Livermore to this analysis would be if large stocks at refineries and National Laboratory (LLNL). Calculations at both these tank farms were successfully ignited into one large centres have recently been carried out to help predict blaze. However refineries are constructed for safety the effects of oil well fires. reasons to make this highly unlikely. How Long could the Fires Burn? PREDICTING THE EFFECTS Local Effects Predicting how long fires could burn is difficult, since fire control measures could only start after the cessation There is a consensus among scientists that burning all of hostilities, and the nature of any damage is likely to the available oil would cause severe local air pollution vary between wells. Oil wells under pressure generally around Kuwait. The shading by smoke would cause a have a check valve which is usually below ground and local fall in ground temperature (analogies with large operable from some distance away. If these have not forest fires would suggest by as much as 5°C). In the been damaged, they could be closed in order to cut the absence of strong winds, severe photochemical smogs flow of oil. Offshore wells and some onshore may also could also form. Smoke concentrations in the central have hydraulically-operated safety valves deeper down source area could affect local visibility badly but would in the shaft which, if working correctly, should auto­ decrease outwards towards Africa and Asia, where any matically shut off the flow of oil if the main surface widespread smoke and haze would be more typical of valve is breached. that encountered from forest fires or deliberate agricul­ tural burning. If such safety measures fail to prevent or control fires, the fires would have to be extinguished - either by Regional Effects putting out the flames or by cutting off the supply of oil. In the first approach, the oil industry has had much ex­ Acid Rain. On the worst assumption, that 1. 5 million perience in extinguishing fires at well heads using ex­ barrels per day could burn for a year, a maximum of 4.2 plosives to blow out the fire, after which the well head million tonnes of sulphur dioxide could be released. can be sealed. This is comparable to the current amount released each year from the UK (3. 7 million tonnes), and would represent a 3% increase on current world-wide emis­ P.O.S.T. Briefing Note 21 February 1991 sions. Nitrogen oxide emissions would be proportion­ Further analyses are likely in the near future, by the Met ately less important. Nevertheless, were such amounts Office and US agencies. It is also likely that satellite of these gases to be generated, there would be a sub­ measurements of fires currently under way in southern stantial increase in acid deposition in Kuwait and in Kuwait's Wafra field will assist in narrowing some of neighbouring countries (depending on the weather cir­ the uncertainties inherent in the above analyses. culation patterns), with the potential to damage vege­ tation and acidify vulnerable water bodies. Global Effects

Climate changes. Any smoke generated will absorb Global Wanning. On the same assumption of one much of the sun's light, cooling the area in the smoke year's fires, up to 57 million tonnes of carbon could be cloud's shadow. In doing so, the smoky atmosphere converted to carbon dioxide. Globally, around 6, 000 itself warms up and may affect circulation patterns and million tonnes of carbon are released each year as weather. At the conference mentioned earlier, there was carbon dioxide by human activities (power generation, speculation that local temperatures in the Middle East transport etc. ). The maximum addition would thus be might fall to those typical of winter, and climate changes 1% of the amount emitted from the rest of man's could stop the rains2 which provide India, Africa and activities. parts of S. E. Asia with the means to grow crops. Stratospheric Ozone. Smoke and nitrogen oxides have Recent calculations at LLNL have used the latest data the potential to destroy ozone if they were to come into from the University of Essex on the 'fractal' properties contact with the ozone layer. But any such effect would of smoke, which affect its ability to interfere with sun­ require the smoke to reach the stratosphere first, which light. It is also necessary to estimate the lifetime of appears unlikely given the expected fire intensity. smoke once it enters the atmosphere. Rain is a very effective scavenger (60% of the smoke would be re­ General Effects moved with rain as heavy as 1 cm per hour), but settling in dry conditions is much slower. Taking these factors into account, it is estimated that if 50, 000 tonnes per day Although significant effects on regional or global weather of smoke were to be generated, the total amount of systems are not predicted, the amount of smoke in the war zone could create problems for visual reconnais­ smoke in the lower atmosphere would reach 500, 000 sance and surveillance from satellites, and for aircraft tonnes3. Of course, if the amounts of smoke formed operations. However smoke is more transparent at were in line with the lower figures in Table 1, the amount in the lower atmosphere would be proportion­ other wavelengths (e. g. infrared and near infrared) and to radar. ately less.

The LLNL scenario forecasts that because the smoke is “Deep Mining” not expected to enter the stratosphere, transport would be in the lower atmosphere - tending to circulate in the The prospect of setting fires within the oil reservoirs Middle East region with a southerly net drift, rather themselves has also been raised. This possibility can be than directly towards the Indian subcontinent. Effects discounted. Even if explosive or incendiary charges on some of the regional weather patterns, particularly were placed deep within the well, a fire could not the monsoon, are thus not predicted by this analysis. sustain itself without oxygen, which is lacking. The Indeed, any diluted smoke in the lower atmosphere effect would be to disrupt the flow of oil by damaging that did reach the Indian sub-continent could create ad­ the riser tube, possibly requiring a new hole to be ditional atmospheric heating which would be as likely drilled in order to restore the well to production. to enhance the monsoon conditions as suppress them. FURTHER READING The initial Met Office analysis however, did not rule out the possibility that smoke could cause local reductions Additional details and background information are in rainfall during the summer monsoon. However, any available from POST, 2 Little Smith St., London, SW1P climatic effects that did occur would be purely tempo­ 3DL, Tel: (071)-222-2688. rary, ending after the fires were extinguished. 2. The summer monsoon winds which bring rain to the Indian sub­ continent are formed as the land heats up faster than the surrounding seas. As the hot air rises over the land, cooler moist oceanic air is drawn in. It has been argued that the effect of a pall of smoke over the area could reduce the warming of the land underneath and thus reduce the driving force for the monsoon. The PARLIAMENTARY OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND 3. This is only about 1 % of the amount of smoke generated inTECHNOLOGY the ‘middle has been set up by the Parliamentary and case’ scenario in the nuclear war studies carried out by SCOPE. A large Scientific Committee to inform Parliamentarians on scientific forest fire in Canada also released 500,000 tonnes of smoke into the atmosphere. and technological issues. Copyright POST, 1991. ______