Monday, May 11, 2020 | special comment Bank Millennium – 2020 Q1 Earnings Highlights Rating: hold | target price: PLN 3.38 | current price: PLN 2.30 MIL PW; MILP.WA | Banks, Poland Analysts: Michał Konarski +48 22 438 24 05; Mikołaj Lemańczyk +48 22 438 24 07 ▪ Bank Millennium's 2020 first-quarter net income was a ▪ Millennium incurred operating costs of PLN 518m in Q1 huge miss at PLN 18.1m vis-à-vis a consensus estimate of 2020, well below the market estimate of PLN 544.6m. The PLN 57.6m, and it registered falls of 33% vs. the previous negative boost from the resolution fund fee (PLN 58m) and quarter and 89% vs. the same period a year earlier. integration expenses (PLN 30m) was offset by savings ▪ The main reason behind the negative surprise was higher- measures put into action during the quarter, including a than-expected provisioning which came out 66% above 35% reduction in IT expenses, a 52% cut in marketing consensus expectations. Otherwise, first-quarter figures spend, and 75% drop in consulting fees. Employment costs were broadly in line, with fee income and costs delivering a increased by 5% in the first quarter. positive surprise. ▪ Provisioning topped expectations at PLN 250m after the ▪ One-time provisions set aside in the first quarter included unforeseen one-time charges (PLN 60m coronavirus a PLN 60m coronavirus loss provision, a PLN 55m reserve provision, PLN 55mHF loan reserve), on top of raised risk for CHF loan losses, contributions of PLN 58m into deposit reserves for corporate loan losses (up at PLN 50m from guarantee and resolution funds, and an allowance for PLN 18m the quarter before) and retail loan losses integration costs (PLN 30m). Stripped off the one-time (PLN 87m vs. PLN 54m), which Millennium explains were charges, quarterly net income comes out to PLN 190m. driven by changes in risk management models. ▪ Compared to the previous quarter, net interest income ▪ MIL stock might take a dip today on higher-than- contracted by 2.5% to PLN 675.8m in Q1, with NIM down expected Q1 provisioning, though investors should by 12bp to 2.70% – a stronger decline than our assumed take notice of the cost-cutting efforts that the Bank 9bp. undertook in the period. We remain confident in our FY2020 earnings outlook for Millennium because the Fee income was up 6.5% q/q at PLN 194.5m, driven by ▪ Q1 provisions fulfilled only 21% of our annual higher fees from insurance (+45% q/q), cards (+10%), and forecast. brokerage services (+29%), offset by lower loan fees (-23%). 2020 Q1 results vs. comparable periods (PLN m) Q1'19 Q4'19 Q1'20 Y/Y Q/Q Net interest income 484.0 692.8 675.8 39.6 -2.5 Fee income 163.2 182.6 194.5 19.2 6.5 Trading income 70.3 90.0 62.9 -10.5 -30.1 Other income 39.5 17.5 12.6 -68.1 -27.8 Non-interest income 273.0 290.1 270.0 -1.1 -6.9 Total income 756.9 982.9 945.8 24.9 -3.8 Operating expenses 384.5 490.0 517.9 34.7 5.7 Other costs 19.8 254.3 27.0 36.6 -89.4 Total costs 404.2 744.3 544.9 34.8 -26.8 Operating income 352.7 238.6 400.9 13.7 68.0 Provisions 68.7 70.0 250.3 264.5 257.9 Equity in profits/losses of associates 0.0 0.0 0.0 n.m. n.m. Pre-tax income 284.0 168.6 150.5 -47.0 -10.7 Tax 72.7 72.5 59.7 -17.9 -17.7 Net income 211.3 96.1 90.9 -57.0 -5.4 Bank tax 51.4 69.1 72.7 41.6 5.2 Net income after bank tax 160.0 27.0 18.1 -88.7 -32.8 Source: Bank Millennium 2020 Q1 actuals vs. expectations (PLN m) Q1'20 Consensus differ. Q1’20E differ. Net interest income 675.8 681.6 -0.9% 671.3 0.7% Fee income 194.5 177.1 9.8% 174.8 11.3% Operating expenses -517.9 -544.6 -4.9% -512.0 1.2% Provisions -250.3 -150.5 66.3% -185.9 34.7% Net income 18.1 57.6 -68.5% 56.4 -67.9% Source: Bank Millennium E - mBank estimates, consensus estimates provided by PAP List of abbreviations and ratios contained in the report: EV – net debt + market value (EV – economic value) EBIT – Earnings Before Interest and Taxes EBITDA – EBIT + Depreciation and Amortisation PBA – Profit on Banking Activity P/CE – price to earnings with amortisation MC/S – market capitalisation to sales EBIT/EV – operating profit to economic value P/E – (Price/Earnings) – price divided by annual net profit per share ROE – (Return on Equity) – annual net profit divided by average equity P/BV – (Price/Book Value) – price divided by book value per share Net debt – credits + debt papers + interest bearing loans – cash and cash equivalents EBITDA margin – EBITDA/Sales OVERWEIGHT (OW) – a rating which indicates that we expect a stock to outperform the broad market NEUTRAL (N) – a rating which indicates that we expect the stock to perform in line with the broad market UNDERWEIGHT (UW) – a rating which indicates that we expect the stock to underperform the broad market Recommendations of Biuro maklerskie mBanku: A recommendation is valid for a period of 9 months, unless a subsequent recommendation is issued within this period. 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