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The Value of Natural Capital in the Columbia River Basin: a Comprehensive Analysis Partners Earth Economics

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The Value of Natural Capital in the Columbia River Basin: a Comprehensive Analysis Partners Earth Economics The Value of Natural Capital in the Columbia River Basin: A Comprehensive Analysis Partners Earth Economics Report Version 1.5 Primary Authors: Lola Flores, Project Director, Earth Economics Johnny Mojica, Research Lead, Earth Economics Angela Fletcher, Project Director, Earth Economics Peter Casey, Research Lead, Earth Economics Zac Christin, Project Director, Earth Economics Corrine Armistead, GIS analyst, Earth Economics Dave Batker, President, Earth Economics Year: 2017 Suggested Citation: Flores, L., Mojica, J., Fletcher, A., Casey, P., Christin, Z., Armistead, C., Batker, D. 2017. The Value of Natural Capital in the Columbia River Basin: A Comprehensive Analysis. Earth Economics, Tacoma, WA. Funded By: Upper Columbia United Tribes (UCUT), Columbia River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission (CRITFC), Pacific Rivers, WaterWatch of Oregon, Save our Wild Salmon. Acknowledgements: Special thanks to Keith Kutchins (UCUT), D.R. Michel (UCUT), John Sirois (UCUT), Steve Smith (UCUT), Bob Austin (USRT), Sheri Sears (Colville Confederated Tribes), Bob Heinith (CRITFC), Jim Heffernan (CRITFC), Greg Haller (Pacific Rivers), John Marsh (CIT and CSKT), John DeVoe (WaterWatch of Oregon), Connor Giorgi (Spokane Tribe of Indians), Karen Frankenfeld (UW-MPA) and Yutian Jiang (UW-MPA) for their immense contributions to the completion of this report. Earth Economics: Maya Kocian (sponsor); Ken Cousins (editor); Jessica Hanson (editor); Sage McElroy (design); Tehva Kastel Riggan (research) We would also like to thank Earth Economics’ Board of Directors for their continued guidance and support: Alex Bernhardt, David Cosman, Elizabeth Hendrix, Greg Forge, Ingrid Rasch, Molly Seaverns, and Sherry Richardson. Errata: This report has been corrected to address copyediting errors which may confuse the reader. A summary of these corrections may be found on page 155. Cover Photo: Columbia Plateau, Source: Brian Gruber ©2017 by Upper Columbia United Tribes. Reproduction of this publication for educational or other non-commercial purposes is authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder provided the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of this publication for resale or other commercial purposes is prohibited without prior written permission of the copyright holder. Table of Contents ACRONYMS AND ABBREVIATIONS 12 EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 14 REPORT OVERVIEW 16 CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION 18 Goal of this Report 19 Site Overview 19 Brief History of Natural Resources in the Columbia River Basin 21 First Foods 22 Threats to Columbia River Ecosystems 23 Columbia River Salmon 26 The 1964 Columbia River Treaty 26 Ecosystem-Based Function and the Existing Columbia River Treaty 27 The Treaty Update 27 CHAPTER TWO: ECOSYSTEM-BASED FUNCTION OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN 30 Ecosystem-Based Function 31 Natural Capital 32 Ecosystem Services 33 Ecosystem Services Valuation 35 Natural Capital Valuation of the Columbia River Basin 36 Ecosystem Services Identified 42 The Value of Ecosystem Services 42 CHAPTER THREE: THE CURRENT VALUE OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN 48 Non-Tribal Commercial Fisheries 49 Economic Value of Commercial Fisheries 49 The Value of Commercial Fishing Under Current Conditions 50 Existence Value 50 Hydropower 51 Table of Contents | 4 Current Power Generation 51 The Value of Hydropower Under Current Conditions 52 The Grid 57 Climate Change Impacts on Hydropower 58 Flood Risk Management 59 Flood Risk Management in the Columbia River Basin 60 Current Flood Risk 61 Climate Change in the Basin 62 Economic Value of Recreation 63 Value of Non-Angler Recreation 64 The Value of Recreation Under Current Conditions 66 Salmon and Steelhead Angling 67 Total Current Value of Recreation 68 Navigation 68 Dredging and Lock Operation and Maintenance 68 The Value of Navigation Under Current Conditions 69 Economic Value of Agricultural Water Supply in the Columbia River Basin 71 Total Economic Value of Current Conditions Scenario 71 CHAPTER FOUR: THE MODERNIZED VALUE OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN 72 Modernized Existence Value 74 Modernized Hydropower 74 Modernized Flood Risk Management 76 Overview of Flood Risk 77 Modernized Recreation 80 Modernized General Recreation 80 Modernized Angling 82 Modernized Navigation 83 Modernized Agriculture—Irrigation 84 Columbia River Basin Report | 5 Modernized Increased Flow Value 84 Modernized Nutrient Enhancement Value 85 Total Economic Value of Modernized Scenario 86 CHAPTER FIVE: THE CULTURAL VALUE OF THE COLUMBIA RIVER BASIN 88 Recognizing Cultural Value 89 First Foods 92 Tribal Resources 93 Tribal Fishing 94 CHAPTER SIX: DAM OPERATIONS AND MAINTENANCE COSTS 96 Bonneville Power Administration 98 The Federal Columbia River Power Systems’ Aging Fleet 99 United States Army Corps of Engineers 100 United States Bureau of Reclamation 100 BC Hydro Fish and Wildlife Compensation Program 101 Continuing to Fund the Columbia River Basin Power System 102 CHAPTER SEVEN: CONCLUSION 104 Findings 105 Further Research Needed 106 Enhanced Analyses 106 Viable Future Funding Mechanisms 108 APPENDIX A: GLOSSARY 110 APPENDIX B: COMMERCIAL FISHERIES VALUATION DATA 114 Columbia River 115 Washington State 115 Oregon State 116 Southeast Alaska 117 British Columbia 117 Table of Contents | 6 APPENDIX C: RECREATIONAL PARKS USED IN THIS STUDY 118 BC Parks 119 Bureau of Land Management 119 Idaho State Parks & Recreation 119 Montana State Parks 119 National Park Service 119 Oregon Parks and Recreation Department 119 United States Army Corps of Engineers 120 United States Forest Service 120 Washington State Parks and Recreation Commission 120 APPENDIX D: ANGLING ANALYSIS DATA 122 APPENDIX E: DATA LIMITATIONS 126 Climate Change Data 127 ESV 127 General Limitations 128 Benefit Transfer/Database Limitations 128 Primary Study Limitations 128 GIS Limitations 128 APPENDIX F: STUDIES USED FOR BENEFIT TRANSFER 130 APPENDIX G: DOLLAR-PER-ACRE ESV RESULTS BY ECOSYSTEM SERVICE AND LAND COVER 134 APPENDIX H: DOCUMENTATION SOURCES OF CULTURAL TRIBAL NARRATIVE 136 APPENDIX I: EXISTENCE VALUE MODEL AND DETAILED METHODOLOGY 140 REFERENCES 142 Columbia River Basin Report | 7 List of Tables Table 1. Important Characteristics of the Major Sub-regions of the Columbia River 20 Table 2. 21 Ecosystem Services 34 Table 3. Expected Differences Between RCC-80 and 3Ea 38 Table 4. Spatial Attributes and Data Sources 40 Table 5. Ecosystem Services Valued in this Analysis 42 Table 6. Annual Ecosystem Services Valuation Results 43 Table 7. Net Present Value of CRB Natural Capital Over 100 Years 47 Table 8. Percentage of Salmon Catch Attributable to the Columbia River Basin 49 Table 9. Non-Tribal Commercial Fishery Harvests Attributable to the Columbia River Basin, Summary of Salmon Landings 50 Table 10. Value of Hydropower under Current Conditions 54 Table 11. Pros and Cons of Common Energy Sources 55 Table 12. Grid Improvement Options 57 Table 13. Recommended Actions to Address Energy Loads and Ecosystem Values Affected by Drought and Climate Change 59 Table 14. Major Flood Storage Dams in the CRB 59 Table 15. Annual Non-Angling Recreation Days and Recreational Use Value by Sub-region 67 Table 16. Salmon and Steelhead Values per Angler Day and Trips per Catch 67 Table 17. Economic Value of Salmon and Steelhead Angling 68 Table 18. Total Value of Irrigated and Non-Irrigated Croplands 70 Table 19. Annual Value of Agricultural Water Supply in the Columbia River Basin 71 Table 20. Total Economic Value of the CRB under Current Conditions 71 Table 21. Forecast of Additional Non-Tribal Commercial Fishery Harvests Attributable to the Columbia River Basin, Summary of Salmon Landings 74 List of Tables | 8 Table 22. Net Change of Power Generation in Both Scenarios 76 Table 23. Average Monthly Visitation under RCC-80 and 3Ea—Lowest Water Years 82 Table 24. Estimated Percent Increases in In-River and Smolt-to-Adult Survival from the Modernized Scenario Over the Current Condition 83 Table 25. Modernized Columbia River Treaty Recreational Values 84 Table 26. Total Increase in Acre Feet at The Dalles for Period March 1–September 30 85 Table 27. Total Economic Value of the CRB under Modernized Scenario (numbers in thousands) 86 Table 28. CRB Cultural Analysis Classification of Well-being Indicators 91 Table 29. Annual Fund Category Spending Years 2013 to 2015 101 Table 30. Landings and Ex-Vessel Value in the Columbia River Basin 115 Table 31. Dollar Per Pound Ex-vessel Values for Salmon Species in Washington State 115 Table 32. Washington Salmon Landings and Ex-Vessel Value Outside the Columbia River Basin 116 Table 33. Dollar Per Pound Ex-vessel Values for Salmon Species in Oregon 116 Table 34. Coastal Oregon Landings and Ex-Vessel Value 116 Table 35. Dollar Per Pound Ex-vessel Values for Salmon Species in Southeast Alaska 117 Table 36. Total Landings and Ex-Vessel Value of Chinook Catch in Southeast Alaska 117 Table 37. Total Landings and Ex-Vessel Value of Chinook Catch in British Columbia 117 Table 38. Current and Enhanced Value of Recreational Catch in the CRB 123 Table 39. Economic Impact of Columbia River Origin Recreational Catch 124 Table 40. Existence Value Detailed Methodology 141 Columbia River Basin Report | 9 List of Figures Figure 1. Sub-Regions of the Columbia River 19 Figure 2. Salmon Entering the Columbia River 25 Figure 3. Relationship Between EbF, Ecosystem Services and Natural Capital 33 Figure 4. Types of Ecosystem Services 33 Figure 5. Types of Capital Present in the CRB, Current Conditions and Modernized Scenarios 37 Figure 6. Different RCC-80 Spill Categories at The Dalles Dam for the Highest Flow Years 52 Figure 7. Columbia River Basin Hydroelectric Production—Q1 53 Figure 8. Columbia River Basin Hydroelectric Production—Q3 53 Figure 9. Columbia River Basin Hydroelectric Production—Q5 53 Figure 10. Projection When Additional Energy Resources May be Needed to Meet PNW Loads Under Climate Change Projections (NWPCC 2015) 58 Figure 11. Projected Changes in 2026 Average and Peak Loads (NWPCC 2015) 58 Figure 12. Projected Changes in 2035 Average and Peak Loads (NWPCC 2015) 58 Figure 13. Tri-Cities 100-yr Floodplain 61 List of Figures | 10 Figure 14. Dams of the Columbia River 62 Figure 15. Irrigated and Non-Irrigated Agriculture in the CRB 70 Figure 16.
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