Comox Valley Regional Economic Development Strategic Plan Update

Appendix B: Economic Analysis

April 2013 investcomoxvalley.com discovercomoxvalley.com

Appendix B: Economic Analysis

The economic analysis of the provides insight into current economic conditions, how the regional economy and demographics are trending over time, and areas of relative strength and weakness compared to other areas of BC. The results of the analysis are summarized in Chapter 3.

Population

Compared to other non- Population Growth Rate by , metropolitan regional districts in the southern 2006 ‐ 2011 (Source: Statistics Census) half of BC, the Comox Squamish‐Lillooet 8.4% Valley ranks 2nd in total Comox Valley 6.8% population growth from 5.7% the 2006 Census to the North 5.1% 2011 Census. Thompson‐Nicola 5.1% Central Kootenay 4.6% 4.4% Sunshine Coast 3.1% Strathcona 2.7%

East Kootenay 2.2%

Okanagan‐Similkameen 1.6%

Powell River 1.6% Alberni‐Clayoquot 1.3% Kootenay Boundary 1.3% Columbia‐Shuswap 0.7%

The faster rate of growth Projected Annual Average Population Growth by is projected to continue Regional District, 2011 ‐ 2036 (Source: BC Stats) for the next few Squamish‐Lillooet 1.7% decades. Based on its current age profile and Comox Valley 1.3% migration trends, the Nanaimo 1.2% Comox Valley is Cowichan Valley 0.9% projected to grow by North Okanagan 0.8% 1.3% per year through Thompson‐Nicola 0.8% 2036, reaching a total Columbia‐Shuswap 0.7% population of about Sunshine Coast 0.7% 88,500. Strathcona 0.6% Central Kootenay 0.5% Okanagan‐Similkameen 0.5% East Kootenay 0.3% Kootenay‐Boundary 0.2%

Alberni‐Clayoquot 0.1%

Powell River ‐0.1%

The Comox Valley's age Population Distribution by Age, 2011 profile is somewhat older (Source: Statistics Canada Census) than the BC average (but fairly typical for 23% Comox Valley 22% Island). 21% BC There are fewer Comox 19% Valley residents at each 17% age group up to age 54, 15% 16% but more in the 55-64 14% 14% 14% range (pre-retirees) and 13% more senior citizens. 10%

0‐14 15‐24 25‐39 40‐54 55‐64 65+ (Children) Young Adults) (Prime Working (Prime Working (Pre‐retiree) (Senior Citizens) Age/Younger) Age/Older) Labour force statistics Estimated Annual Average Growth in 25‐54 Age Range from the 2011 Census are not available as of by Regional District, 1986 ‐ 2011 (Source: BC Stats) this analysis, but trends Squamish‐Lillooet 2.9% in the prime working age Nanaimo 2.3% population of 25 to 54- Sunshine Coast 2.3% year-olds is a Comox Valley 2.1% reasonable proxy as Cowichan Valley 1.7% people in that age range North Okanagan 1.5% are much more likely to Okanagan‐Similkameen 1.2% be involved in the labour Thompson‐Nicola 1.1% force than residents Columbia‐Shuswap 1.0% either younger or older. Strathcona 1.0%

Central Kootenay 0.7% Over the 25-year period from 1986 to 2011, the East Kootenay 0.4% Comox Valley's Powell River 0.3% population of prime Kootenay‐Boundary 0.1% working-age adults grew Alberni‐Clayoquot 0.0% by average of 2.1% per year. This ranked fourth among the group of southern BC regional districts (not including the metro areas).

Looking to the future, the Projected Annual Average Growth in 25‐54 Age Range Comox Valley is projected to continue to by Regional District, 2011 ‐ 2036 (Source: BC Stats) have strong growth in Nanaimo 1.3% the prime working-age Comox Valley 1.2% population, averaging Squamish‐Lillooet 0.9% 1.2% per year and Cowichan Valley 0.9% ranking behind only the North Okanagan 0.9% Regional District of Thompson‐Nicola 0.7% Nanaimo in growth rate. Sunshine Coast 0.6% Columbia‐Shuswap 0.5% Evidence of continued Strathcona 0.5% workforce growth is a Central Kootenay 0.4% very positive sign for the Okanagan‐Similkameen 0.3% Comox Valley economy, but the projected growth Alberni‐Clayoquot 0.1% requires strong net Kootenay‐Boundary 0.1% migration of this key East Kootenay 0.0% demographic group. Powell River 0.0% Both retaining young adults and attracting young adults from elsewhere.

Migration data from the 2011 Census is not available during the preparation of this report, but 2006 Census data provides some indication of the types of people that were migrating to the Comox Valley in the 2001 to 2006 period. As of the 2006 Census, 30% of the population of the Courtenay Census Agglomeration (which includes all of the Comox Valley except for Area C) had moved to the area in the previous five years (not including children under age 5 who had yet to be born for the 2001 Census).

These new residents were distributed fairly Migrants to Courtenay CA in Previous 5 Years by Age evenly by age, as shown and Previous Location, 2006 (Source: Statistics Canada Census) in the chart to the right. Intraprovincial Interprovincial International Among the adult 5‐19 1,630 1,070 180 population, new (21%) residents were most 20‐29 likely to be in their 30s 995 600 110 (12%) (17% of all migrants) or 30‐39 40s (also 17%). There 1,315 870 225 were slightly fewer new (17%) residents in their 50s 40‐49 1,315 955 135 (14%) followed by those (17%) in their 20s (12%) and 50‐59 1,390 455 90 60s (10%). More than (14%) 20% of new residents 60‐69 1,000 430 35 were under the age of (10%) 20, most of whom presumably arrived with 70+ (8%) 820 305 50 their parents.

Income

The older age profile of Income by Source, 2009 the Comox Valley is (Source: Canada Revenue Agency) reflected in the sources of personal income. In 2009 (the most recent 69% year available), 58% of Comox Valley personal income 58% BC reported on income tax filings in the Comox Valley was from 46th 61st 61st employment or self- in BC in BC in BC employment compared 25% to 69% in BC. 14% Pensions are a much 9% 10% 8% more important source 7% of income in the Comox Valley, accounting for Employment (inc. Pension Investment Other & Tax‐Exempt 25% of the total Self‐employment) compared to only 14% provincially.

Average employment Average Employment Income, 2009 incomes are relatively (Source: Canada Revenue Agency) low in the Comox Valley with an average of East Kootenay RD $36,032 $30,500 in 2009. The Thompson‐Nicola RD $34,400 BC average for that year Squamish‐Lillooet RD $33,099 was $36,900. Kootenay‐Boundary RD $32,813 Sunshine Coast RD $32,518 The Valley's lower North Okanagan RD $31,991 incomes are based Cowichan Valley RD $31,795 largely on the mix of Nanaimo RD $31,656 industries that make up Strathcona RD $31,319 the local economy, as Comox Valley RD $30,532 well as the seasonal Columbia‐Shuswap RD $30,354 nature of much of that employment (these Powell River RD $29,756 statistics include Central Kootenay RD $29,586 everyone who reported Okanagan Similkameen RD $29,585 any employment income Alberni‐Clayoquot RD $26,917 on their income tax return, even if only a small amount from part-time or short-term employment).

Average pension Average Pension Income, 2009 incomes in the Comox (Source: Canada Revenue Agency) Valley are higher than any of the comparison Comox Valley RD $23,000 group of regional Nanaimo RD $22,982 districts shown to the Sunshine Coast RD $22,134 right (and 2nd in BC Cowichan Valley RD $21,610 behind only the Capital East Kootenay RD $20,398 RD). This is generally Alberni‐Clayoquot RD $20,343 attributed to the high Powell River RD $20,193 percentage of retired Columbia‐Shuswap RD $20,033 military personnel in the Kootenay‐Boundary RD $20,018 Valley, as well as its Thompson‐Nicola RD $19,899 popularity as a North Okanagan RD $19,880 retirement destination. Okanagan Similkameen RD $19,847 As shown in Table 3 Squamish‐Lillooet RD $19,670 below, pensions are the Central Kootenay RD $19,218 only income category in Strathcona RD $19,108 the Comox Valley that is higher than the provincial average. Employment incomes were 17% lower as of 2009.

Table 3. Average Personal Income by Source, Comox Valley, 2009

Source Comox Valley Average Compared to BC Rank Among 29 RDs Employment $30,532 17% lower21st Pension $23,000 15% higher2nd Investment $7,877 21% lower17th Self Employment $10,610 11% lower 7th Other $5,520 2% lower20th Tax-Exempt $6,209 2% lower10th Total $36,920 7% lower 12th Source: Canada Revenue Agency

Industry Sectors

Table 4 shows the leading employment sectors in the Comox Valley as of the last Census in 2006 (updated results from the 2011 Census are not released until mid-2013). The employment figures have undoubtedly changed since 2006 but the general structure of a regional economy evolves relatively slowly over time so there is still value in reviewing the situation at that time. Note these are jobs with a fixed place of work in the Comox Valley and do not include local residents whose jobs have no fixed place of work, which is relatively common in sectors like construction.

The far right column shows the relative size of each sector in the Comox Valley compared to BC. Values higher than 1 indicate the sector is relatively larger in the Comox Valley so by that measure the public administration sector, including 19 Wing Comox, is the largest sector on a relative basis.

Other sectors that are relatively stronger include retail trade and health care, reflecting the Comox Valley's role as a regional service centre for the north and central Island, and the resource-based sector including agriculture, forestry and fishing. Despite the relative strength in resource-based employment, manufacturing was just over one-third the size locally as the provincial sector.

The Comox Valley is not a regional distribution centre, as shown by the much smaller employer shares for transportation and warehousing and wholesale trade and many of the advanced services sectors are also relatively smaller, including professional, scientific and technical services, finance and insurance and information and cultural industries.

Table 4. Jobs with Fixed Place of Work in the Comox Valley, by Sector, 2006

CVRD Relative Sector (with NAICS code) CVRD-based Jobs to BC 44-45 Retail trade 3,775 1.42 62 Health care and social assistance 2,925 1.29 91 Public administration 2,205 1.89 72 Accommodation and food services 1,945 1.03 61 Educational services 1,610 1.01 54 Professional, scientific and technical services 1,165 0.70 81 Other services (except public administration) 1,040 0.95 23 Construction 965 1.19 11 Agriculture, forestry, fishing and hunting 920 1.52 52 Finance and insurance 745 0.80 31-33 Manufacturing 740 0.37 53 Real estate and rental and leasing 630 1.19 48-49 Transportation and warehousing 620 0.67 71 Arts, entertainment and recreation 550 1.11 56 Administrative and support, waste management and remediation services 480 0.67 41 Wholesale trade 405 0.43 51 Information and cultural industries 270 0.49 22 Utilities 65 0.59 21 Mining and oil and gas extraction 35 0.22 Total 21,105 1.00 Source: Statistics Canada Census

Comparing the largest Average Weekly Wages by Sector in BC, 2012 industries in the Comox Valley to average weekly (Source: Statistics Canada Labour Force Survey) wages by industry Forestry, Fishing, Mining, Oil & Gas $1,326 shows why Valley Utilities $1,275 employment incomes Public Administration $1,179 are lower than average. Professional, Scientific, Technical Services The four lowest-paying $1,117 sectors in the chart to Construction $1,001 the right are all relatively Manufacturing $995 larger in the Comox Educational Services $977 Valley compared to BC Transportation & Warehousing $970 overall. Some of the Finance, Insurance, Real Estate, Leasing $948 higher-paying sectors, Overall Average $854 including mining (which Health Care & Social Assistance $846 is the highest-paying of Retail & Wholesale Trade all the resource-based $635 sectors), utilities, Agriculture $572 professional and Accommodation & Food Services $444 scientific services and manufacturing are all relatively under-represented in the Comox Valley.

BC Stats calculates Income Dependencies, Comox Valley, 2006 income dependencies (Source: BC Stats) for local areas throughout the province, Public Sector 30% including the Comox Other Non‐Employment 21% Valley. Income Transfer Payments 18% dependencies show the "economic base" Forest Sector 9% industries that are Construction 7% ultimately responsible for generating local income. Tourism 6% The theory is that these Other 3% industries are selling Agri‐Food 3% beyond the local area and earning income that Fishing Sector 2% supports their local Mining Sector 2% supplier industries as Film 0% well as the population- serving industries that High Tech 0% provide goods and services to their employees. The public sector is considered an economic base sector because health care, education, defense and other government functions are funded by senior levels of government. There are also income dependencies for government transfer payments and other non-employment income (e.g., pensions and investments) that help to support local population- serving industries.

The chart shows that the public sector is the most important source of income in the Comox Valley, driven largely by the presence of 19 Wing Comox, followed by non-employment sources. Only about 30% of income in the Valley is reliant on local private sector industries.

Construction and Development

Total building permit Building Permit Values by Type, Comox Valley RD values in the Comox Valley declined for the ($000s) (Source: BC Stats) second straight year in Residential Commercial Industrial Institutional & Government 2012 with the largest 160,000 decline occurring in 140,000 residential permits. Commercial permit 120,000 values have been 28,005 27,592 relatively consistent, in 100,000 the range of $25-28 17,430 80,000 25,836 million per year for the last three years while 60,000 industrial and 90,868 93,167 institutional permits are 40,000 76,641 67,284 highly variable from year to year depending on 20,000 single large projects. 0 2009 2010 2011 2012

Relative to other non- Total Building Permit Values Per Capita, 2009‐2012 metro regions in (Source: BC Stats, using 2011 population estimates) southern BC, the Comox Valley ranks 5th out of Sunshine Coast RD $11,624 15 in total building East Kootenay RD $8,787 permit values per capita North Okanagan RD $8,246 over the 2009 to 2012 Squamish‐Lillooet RD $7,993 period. It ranks 1st Comox Valley RD $7,182 among the 5 regional Nanaimo RD $7,164 districts on Vancouver Thompson‐Nicola RD $6,896 Island. Alberni‐Clayoquot RD $6,496

Okanagan‐Similkameen RD $6,308

Columbia‐Shuswap RD $5,906

Kootenay Boundary RD $5,708 Cowichan Valley RD $5,577 Central Kootenay RD $5,494 Strathcona RD $4,879 Powell River RD $2,415

Housing Prices

The median sale price Median Single Family Home Price, 2012 for single family homes (Source: Real Estate Board) was $335,000 in the Comox Valley in 2012, Parksville/Qualicum $360,000 somewhat higher than the median Island-wide (except for Greater Nanaimo $344,400 Victoria). Comox Valley $335,000 Median housing prices dropped throughout the Cowichan Valley $329,050 Island except in the Parksville/Qualicum area, which was up 2%, Board Total $320,000 and the Comox Valley, with no change. Campbell River $270,000

Port Alberni/West $197,000

Over the last five years, Change in Median Single Family Home Price, however, the Comox Valley has clearly had 2007‐2012 (Source: Vancouver Island Real Estate Board) the greatest increase in median single family housing prices. This is Comox Valley $25,000 an indication of economic recovery from Parksville/Qualicum $17,000 the 2008-2009 recession and consistent with continued population Nanaimo $15,400 growth. Port Alberni/West ‐$2,500 Housing affordability is a concern in the Comox Valley but it is important Campbell River ‐$7,000 to note that not all housing is as expensive Cowichan Valley ‐$10,350 as the regional median noted above. Average sale prices in 2012 ranged from $187,000 for an apartment condominium to $488,000 for a single family home on the water. Single family home values also vary by location within the Comox Valley, with average sale prices in central Courtenay and Cumberland averaging about $275,000.