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Testiranje Primene Kralicekovog Df Pokazatelja Na Beogradskoj Berzi

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Testiranje Primene Kralicekovog Df Pokazatelja Na Beogradskoj Berzi originalni naučni UDK 005.336.1:005.216 ; 005.311.121 rad TESTIRANJE PRIMENE KRALICEKOVOG DF POKAZATELJA NA doc. dr Almir Alihodžić BEOGRADSKOJ BERZI Ekonomski fakultet u Zenici, Univerzitet u Zenici [email protected] Rezime Meriti uspešnost poslovanja pre svega znači imati precizna definisana merila uspešnosti. Merenjem, tj. merilima uspešnosti utvrđuje se koliko je preduzeće uspešno koristilo svoje resurse. Pogrešno je izjednačiti uspešnost, tj. efikasnost i efektivnost, odnosno učinkovitost poslovanja. Preduzeće može biti uspešno u korišćenju svojih resursa ali ne mora biti i učinkovito ako ne ostvari postavljene ciljeve, jer efektivnost predstavlja sposobnost preduzeća za ostvarivanje postavljenih ciljeva. Za dobijanje neophodnih informacija potrebni su brojni postupci i informacije iz finansijskih izveštaja. Takođe, potrebno je imati u vidu njihovu ograničenost koja se odnosi na podatke iz prošlosti. U ovom radu se istražuje mogućnost aplikativne primjene Kralicekovog DF pokazatelja za pojedina preduzeća (akcije emitenata) podeljena u dve skupine i to: prvih deset preduzeća koja imaju najveće procentualno učešće u indeksnoj korpi i preduzeća koja su ostvarila negativan finansijski rezultat u 2011. godini, a koja se nalaze u sastavu berzanskog indeksa BELEXline. Ključne reči: poslovna izvrsnost, bonitet preduzeća, finansijska snaga, DF pokazatelj JEL: G17, G31, G33 3 2013 Rad primljen: 29.12.2012. Odobren za štampu: 25.02.2013. bankarstvo 70 original UDC 005.336.1:005.216 ; 005.311.121 scientific paper TESTING THE KRALICEK DF INDICATOR APPLICATION ON THE doc. dr. sci Almir Alihodžić Faculty of Economics in Zenica, University of Zenica BELGRADE STOCK [email protected] EXCHANGE Summary Measuring business success primarily means having available precisely defined measure of success. By measurement, i.e. through success measures it is determined how much success an enterprise achieved in the employment of its resources. It is wrong to equate success, ie. efficiency and effectiveness, and efficiency of operations. An enterprise may be successful in using its resources, but may not be effective if its set objectives are not achieved, because the effectiveness is the ability of the enterprise to achieve its projected objectives. In order to receive necessary information many procedures and data from financial reports are required. In addition, the constraints of information received must be taken into consideration regarding data history. This paper investigates options for application of the Kralicek DF indicator on certain companies (issuers’ shares) divided into two sets as follows: the first ten companies having the higher percentage of share in the index basket, and companies with a negative financial result in 2011, which are present in the BELEXline stock exchange index. Key words: business excellence, company credit rating, financial strength, DF indicator 3 2013 JEL: G17, G31, G33 Paper received: 29.12.2012 bankarstvo Approved for publishing: 25.02.2013 71 Uvod finansijskih neprilika za pojedina preduzeća tj. emitente u sastavu berzanskog indeksa Finansijski izveštaji predstavljaju BELEX , tačnije za prvih deset preduzeća sa kvantificirane prikaze koji predstavljaju najvećim procentualnim učešćem u indeksu, glavne izvore informacija o poslovanju kao i za preduzeća koja su ostvarila negativan preduzeća. Poznavanje osnovnih tehnika i finansijski rezultat u 2011. godini, a koja se metoda finansijske analize od kapitalnog je nalaze u sastavu indeksa BELEXline. Rad je značaja za sve korisnike finansijskih izveštaja. struktuiran iz tri dela. Prvi deo opisuje pojedine Informacije dobijene iz finansijskih izveštaja teorijske modele za predviđanje finansijskih mogu se koristiti u različite svrhe, i to: za neprilika i njihove pretpostavke. Drugi deo merenje efikasnosti i efektivnosti poslovanja, govori o osnovnim tendencijama tržišta kapitala evaluaciju vrednosti preduzeća, projektovanje u Srbiji, posebno o karakteristikama akcijskog budućih novčanih tokova, predviđanje budućeg tržišta kapitala. I treći deo opisuje mogućnost poslovanja itd. primene Kralicekovog DF pokazatelja za Različiti korisnici finansijskih izveštaja pojedine akcije preduzeća. Na kraju se daju njihovom analizom žele doznati različite zaključna razmatranja. korisne informacije o poslovanju preduzeća. Vlasnici, tj akcionari na osnovu datih informacija Predviđanje kreditnog boniteta predviđaju i odlučuju da li zadržati ili prodati preduzeća po ZETA modelu svoje akcije ili udele, kakva je isplativost ulaganja u preduzeće u odnosu na druga Zeta je nastao u drugoj polovini dvadesetog preduzeća u istoj delatnosti, da li zadržati ili veka u SAD na osnovu istraživanja da li će zameniti sadašnje menadžere i dr. Takođe, preduzeće u budućnosti bankrotirati ili pak kreditori analizom žele doznati kolika bi dobit ne. Istraživanje je obuhvatilo mnoga preduzeća bila dostatna za pokriće dospelih kamata na koja nisu bankrotirala kao i mnoga preduzeća obveznice ili kredite, odnosno kakvi su izgledi koja su bankrotirala. Posmatrana preduzeća su da obveznice budu plaćene po dospeću. pripadala istoj grani delatnosti, te su bilansi Menadžeri na osnovu dobijenih informacija uzimani za iste godine, kao i za godine pre predviđaju i odlučuju o politici raspodele bankrotstva preduzeća. U samom početku je dobiti, mogućnostima i načinima finansiranja uzeto 30 finansijskih pokazatelja, a na samom budućih ulaganja, verovatnosti uspešnosti završetku izabrano je samo pet. Finansijski budućeg poslovanja i dr. Zaposlenici upoređuju pokazatelji koji su izabrani odnose se na: (1) uspešnost i finansijski položaj preduzeća u odnos obrtnog kapitala i ukupnih sredstava - odnosu na raniji period. Vladine agencije X1; (2) odnos akumulirane zadržane zarade i procenjuju trenutnu uspešnost i finansijski ukupnih sredstava - X2; (3) odnos zarade pre položaj pojedinih preduzeća i privrednih grana. odbitka kamate i poreza i ukupnih sredstava Na koji način utvrditi da li se preduzeće nalazi - X3; (4) odnos tržišne vrednosti kapitala i u finansijskim neprilikama, tj. pred stečajem? ukupnih obaveza - X4; (5) odnos prihoda od Kao rezultat napora brojnih stručnjaka na prodaje i ukupnih sredstava - X5. polju finansijske analize razvijeni su brojni Obrtni kapital / ukupna sredstva - X1. modeli zbirnih finansijskih pokazatelja od Obrtni kapital jednak je razlici između trajnog kojih se posebno izdvajaju: Altmanov Z - Score i dugoročnog kapitala1 kao i stalne imovine. model, Kralicekov DF pokazatelj, Argentijev Često se u literaturi sreće pod nazivom neto model, Ohlsonovi modeli, BEX model, Zavgrenin obrtni kapital i predstavlja računsku kategoriju model, Theodossioujev model, Chesser-ov credit koja može da bude pozitivna i negativna. scoring model, Tafflerov model i dr. Predmet Negativna će biti u slučaju kada je trajnji kapital istraživanja u ovom radu je mogućnost primene manji od stalne imovine. Kralicekovog DF pokazatelja za predviđanje Akumulirana zadržana zarada / ukupna 3 2013 1 Zbir kapitala umanjenog za gubitak, dugoročna rezervisanja i dugoročne obaveze. bankarstvo 72 Introduction Taffler model, etc.Subject of research in this work is the Kralicek DF indicator for forecasting Financial reports are quantitative presentations financial distress of certain companies, i.e. which are the main sources of information on issuers within the stock exchange BELEX index, the company business. Knowledge of the basic or more precisely, for the first ten companies techniques and methods of financial analysis is with the highest percentage of share in this of capital importance for all the users of financial index, but also for the companies that have reports. Information received from financial made a negative financial result in 2011, and reports may be used for different purposes as which are present within the composition of follows: for measuring business efficacy and the BELEXline index. This paper is structured effectiveness, for evaluation of the company in three parts. Part one describes individual value, projection of future cash flows, prediction theoretical models for forecasting financial of future business operations, etc. distress and their assumptions. Part two speaks Different users of financial reports wish of the basic capital market tendencies in Serbia, to gain through their analysis various useful especially the characteristics of the equity information on the company business. The capital market. Part three describes options for owners, i.e. shareholders, on the basis of the application of the Kralicek DF indicator on information provided, predict and decide some of the company shares. Finally, closing whether to keep or sell their stocks and shares, deliberations are given. deliberate profitability of investment in the company in respect to investment made in Forecasting company credit some other companies in the same business worthiness after the ZETA model branch, whether to keep or replace current managers, etc. In addition, through their Zeta evolved in the second half of the 20th analysis, creditors wish to learn what would be century in the USA based on the research an adequate gain for covering interest due for investigating whether a company is facing payment on bonds or credits, i.e. what are the bankruptcy in future, or not. Research outlooks for the bonds to be paid on maturity. covered many companies that did not fall into Managers, on the basis of information received, bankruptcy, but also many companies that predict and decide on the policy of profit did go bankrupt. The investigated
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