www.africa-confidential.com 12 July 2002 Vol 43 No 14 AFRICA CONFIDENTIAL ALGERIA 3 Bouteflika digs in President Abdelaziz Bouteflika’s Beware false profits allies won a big majority in Booming Christian fundamentalist sects make good business but parliamentary elections despite the not good politics continuing violence. The international ‘war on terror’ means Religion is moving fast up the political agenda, as elections loom next year. From antagonistic substantial new support from theological positions, Christian and Muslim fundamentalists explain Nigeria’s growing poverty, corruption Europe and the USA for his war on and crime; as disillusion with mainstream politicians grows, the opposing fundamentalisms grow Islamist violence. Western stronger and the room for dialogue narrows. governments let a low poll turnout and a boycott in the Kabylie region Islamists demand ‘Allah’s law not man’s law’. They reject a national government headed by a Christian, pass without comment. especially a proselytising Christian like President , who delayed the announcement of his presidential ambitions for 2003 while waiting for a message from God. Fundamentalist Christians are just as exclusivist: leaders of the burgeoning Pentecostal movement argue that supporters of the TOGO 4 Sharia (Islamic law) criminal code should support it in a separate state. Since civilian rule was restored in 1999, thousands of people have been killed in fighting sparked by the imposition of Sharia in northern Last of the dinosaurs states such as and Kano. The sacking of Prime Minister The issue of Sharia has split the North between the Muslim majority, many of whom backed it to fight Agbéyomé Kodjo suggests the race rising crime, and the Christian minority for whom it represents an attack on civil rights. States which have to succeed President Gnassingbé Eyadéma may have started. But adopted the Sharia criminal code haven’t cut poverty or crime. Meanwhile, some Sharia exponents are there is no obvious candidate with accused of grand corruption. Neither Muslim nor Christian leaders advocate political and economic the skills to lead Togo out of reforms that might tackle crime and economic decline. decades of steadily deepening In the formerly peaceful city of Jos in the Middle Belt, religious violence claimed hundreds of lives last economic and political paralysis. October and flared again last month. Politicians exploit the issue in the lead up to next year’s presidential and legislative elections. Many northern Muslim politicians use Sharia to prove their northern nationalist ZAMBIA 5 credentials, denouncing their southern political adversaries under Obasanjo, a south-western Christian. General Muhammadu Buhari, the former military ruler seeking the presidential nomination of the All Levy at war People’s Party (AC Vol 43 No 9) backs the Sharia criminal code and calls on states with substantial After an uncertain start, President Muslim populations to implement it. Levy Mwanawasa has settled into the presidency enough to take on Traders in the temple – miracles on demand his predecessor, Frederick This may not win many votes. There is no reliable census, so nobody knows how many Nigerians are Chiluba. Corruption and libel Muslim, how many are Christian and how many stick to traditional belief systems – or any combination accusations are flying and the row threatens to split the ruling party. thereof. It is widely assumed that Muslims and Christians are roughly equal in numbers. Most Muslims are in the north, most Christians in the south but there are substantial numbers everywhere. Many Muslims oppose the Sharia criminal code as divisive and ineffectual; Pentecostal proselytising jars on AFRICAN UNION 7 many Christians. Pentecostal Christianity, with its missionary zeal for conversion, rivals Islam as the world’s fastest Part of the union growing religious movement and is one of Nigeria’s most successful exports after oil, as teams of Everyone enjoyed the launch party Pentecostal missionaries head for Europe to stem the tide of atheism and win converts from all races. The but observers are already best attended Christian church in Britain is a Nigerian Pentecostal church in East London. The charitable questioning whether the new status of many UK churches allows them to claim back the tax paid on donations by their congregations. African Union will be any tougher on good governance and Nigeria’s mainstream religions are appalled by the rapid growth of the rival churches. Anglican corruption than the old (Episcopal) and Roman Catholic priests question the doctrinal integrity of the new pastors, suspecting Organisation of African Unity. many of financial rather than religious motives. The Pentecostal Fellowship of Nigeria, an umbrella organisation led by Bishop Mike Okonkwo, has POINTERS 8 several hundred member churches, and there are probably over 1,000 different Pentecostal church organisations in Nigeria. Religion is one of the few fast-growing economic activities. When factories HIV/AIDS, Côte close in the industrial Ikeja district of , pastors quickly buy up the warehouses and convert them into vast churches. The demand for church space has pushed up property prices in the federal capital, d’Ivoire, São Tomé Abuja. Churches do a roaring trade in video and cassette tapes, books and other Christian paraphernalia. e Príncipe & The new churches and their owners (see Box) have grown affluent by tithing, where pastors encourage Bushmeat their followers to give ten per cent of their income to the church. Often they demand more, asking congregations to donate ‘sacrificially’ or make ‘advance’ cash payments, in return for which God will 12 July 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 14 Harvesting souls Nigeria’s popular charismatic movement took root with Joseph Ayo global following accompanies his reputation for miracle cures for AIDS Babalola’s Christ Apostolic Church in the 1930s. In the 1970s, the late and other diseases. South Africans, Germans and Americans flock to Benson Idahosa of the Church of God Mission ran mass crusades of his Lagos ‘Synagogue’. Rival pastors claim he uses black magic and is healing, speaking in tongues and exorcism. What is new about the an instrument of the Devil. It is said that Frederick Chiluba visited him pentecostals and evangelicals of today is the size of the following, the while seeking to change the Zambian constitution to allow him a third diversity of the congregation – the poor and hungry have been joined by term as president. A seasoned US traveller said she thought some of his the rich and upwardly mobile – and the bewildering choice of churches. disciples were drugged. Each pastor attracts a following with a personal narrative and cult. Among ● Christ Embassy: Chris Oyakhilome, based in Ikeja, offers miracles the most influential are: of health and prosperity and has both himself. His weekly congregations ● Winners Chapel-Faith Tabernacle: Bishop David Oyedepo’s chapel, number more than 10,000; his internet site shows before-and-after near President Olusegun Obasanjo’s farm at Otta, outside Lagos, seats pictures of HIV-positive patients whom he claims to have healed. over 50,000 worshippers, equivalent to a medium-sized football stadium. ● Latter Rain Assembly: Tunde Bakare’s political ventures include a It is Africa’s largest church and one of the largest in the world, with hotels prophecy, in February, that Nigeria would be taken over by a young man and a religious school in its compound. The Bishop enjoys an opulent from Adamawa in the north-west, in whose hands the economy would lifestyle to match and provides spiritual advice to the President. The ten- recover faster than Japan’s. Blood would flow, heads would roll within year-old Winners movement claims to be in 32 different African countries 100 days or 100 weeks. Later he was questioned by the security services as well as Europe and the Americas: Oyedepo’s ‘prosperity preaching’ after predicting that the political system would soon auto-destruct. ‘IBB pulls big audiences in Ghana. [former military ruler Ibrahim Babangida] will help to consume ● Redeemed Christian Church of God: set up in the 1950s by Enoch Obasanjo. Obasanjo will help to consume the PDP [the ruling party]. The Adeboye, its annual Holy Ghost prayer meetings attract congregations of PDP will consume the [opposition] APP. The APP will consume the AD more than a million. In 1980, the church had 42 parishes; it now claims [an allied party]. And the new Nigeria will come after the coming 33,000 across the world, many of them in London, where they have conflagration.’ His repute rose in the early nineties when he said that charitable status. Rapid expansion has caused organisational difficulties; Chief M.K.O. Abiola would not survive the 1993 elections but fell after Adeboye recently sacked many church workers who missed seminars. he predicted that Obasanjo wouldn’t be sworn in as President in 1999. ● House on the Rock: founded in 1995 by Pastor Paul Adeferasin from ● Kingsway International Christian Centre: Matthew Ashimolowo, the a wealthy Yoruba family, son of a Lagos judge and, he says, a former crack leading Nigerian pastor in London, UK, recently celebrated his 50th cocaine addict. He claims political connections and Obasanjo has often led birthday with a sumptuous party at Claridges Hotel, pictured in Ovation, Sunday services at the presidential chapel at Aso Rock, where the well-to- Nigeria’s equivalent of Britain’s Hello magazine. He frequently visits do seek contacts on Sundays. Adeferasin is building a multi-million dollar Lagos churches. centre on the Lekki Peninsula in Lagos and says it will be Africa’s largest Foreign evangelists who have strayed onto Nigerian shores include air-conditioned church. The House on the Rock has 13 churches in Congo- Reinhard Bonke, a German whose mass crusades have led to mass Kinshasa, where it hopes to train French-speaking pastors and send them violence between Christians and Muslims. He is said to be close to as missionaries into Francophone Africa and perhaps even to France. Obasanjo and attended a thanksgiving ceremony after the presidential ● Household of God: Pastor Chris Okotie, former singing star, speaks of inauguration in 1999. Pastor T.D. Jacques is a black Texan with his presidential ambitions and has publicly attacked other pastors. connections to several Nigerian sects; House on the Rock offers tithes to ● Synagogue Church of All Nations: Prophet Temitope B. Joshua’s his Potters Bar church in Dallas.

bless them with abundance or, in more specific cases, with US$1 traditional notions of appeasing the spirit world or making sacrifices million. Established churches lambast such materialist preaching, the to the ancestors. It also fits with Christian and Muslim traditions. lack of accountability of church funds and the opulence in which some Pentecostal churches promote belief in an ever-present Holy Spirit pastors live. who can provide physical protection from daily dangers. Many pastors claim miracle cures for diseases such as AIDS, where modern Paying for paradise medicine is inaccessible or ineffective. As the claims, the scandals and the frauds grow more outrageous, the Such reference to the Holy Spirit (in Christianity, one of the three congregations grow faster still. One pastor told his congregation that principal manifestations of God) raises the spectre of violence and God had given him all the wealth accumulated in the Bermuda manipulation existing around Alice Lakwena’s Holy Spirit Army, Triangle to disperse among his flock in Apapa, Lagos. Those wanting later to become ex-Catholic cathechist Joseph Kony’s Lord’s a share must contribute in advance ten per cent of the amount they hope Resistance Army, in Uganda. Backed by Sudan’s Islamist government, to receive; $1 mn. would cost a believer $100,000. There are the National Islamic Front, the LRA has, in the name of the Holy Spirit similarities to the so-called ‘advance fee’ frauds developed by Nigerian and Ten Commandments, coerced its soldiers, often children, into conmen who target mostly foreign victims committing appalling massacres, rapes and torture. It is hard to tell which churches are founded on spiritual beliefs and Nigeria’s Pentecostal churches are subject to no rules and publish no which are run as personal businesses. A Lagos newspaper editor says accounts, while many pastors live in opulence. David Oyedepo is said the press has trouble investigating the financial deals and the miracles to own a private jet; Chris Okotie drives an S-class Mercedes; Paul claimed by pastors, because many journalists are keen believers. Adeferasin has personal bodyguards. Christians unite against what Many pastors play on their congregations’ insecurity and despair they regard as the threat of Islam but otherwise are increasingly about the future; churches may provide a sense of community and fragmented. The field is ripe for charismatic pastors to compete to hope in towns where both have disappeared. Tithing fits in with harvest souls. The leaders of the established Catholic and Anglican

2 12 July 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 14 denominations and of the new charismatic churches do not hide their has been consulted on anti-terrorist initiatives. The authorities in mutual contempt. Germany, Italy and other European countries where Islamists are Traditional Christians argue that the success of the Pentecostal active crack down on sympathisers of the GIA and the Groupe movement is less a reaction to a morally bankrupt state than a Salafiste de Prédication et de Combat. These are at last being reflection of it. Catholic priests admit they have refashioned their officially linked to the Al Qaida network and Washington has services, including more music and adapting their message, to retain designated them ‘foreign terrorist organisations’. Algeria’s armed their congregations as the independent pastors advertise miracles of forces have been upgrading their surveillance and other anti-terrorist wealth and health. equipment and expect more matériel to arrive to squeeze the remaining Obasanjo handled the Sharia issue cautiously but brings his own armed Islamists (AC Vol 43 No 6). faith into politics, encouraging Nigerians to believe, in the words of one pastor friend, that he is ‘mandated by God to ensure the country Independence Day murder survives democracy’. When he said this year that he was waiting for Peace has not yet broken out. The 40th anniversary of Independence God’s word on whether to stand for re-election, he was speaking a on 5 July was marked by killings: people had their throats cut in language familiar to many. When he announced that he was running, several communities and on 6 July, a bomb killed at least 48 people the implication was that God had told him to. This, say the cynics, was in the market town of Larbaa, 25 kilometres south of Algiers. These a strategic message to millions of born-again Christians, that to vote breaches of security challenge the ambitious commander of the First against Obasanjo would be to oppose God. If he faces a Muslim Military Region, Gen. Brahim Fodhil Cherif, who has won opponent who claims a similar mandate, the election could make the promotion by reducing attacks in Algiers and in the ‘triangle of religious street battles of the past three years look like a picnic. death’ around Larbaa. He is in line to replace the land army commander, Maj. Gen. Gaïd Salah, when he retires; rival candidates ALGERIA include Gen. Saïd Bey, commanding the Fifth Military Region. Bouteflika toys with his senior officers. On 4 July, when he paid his annual visit to the Defence Ministry to award promotions and medals, two generals became major generals and eight colonels were Bouteflika digs in made generals but the long awaited reshuffle of senior ranks remains The President is pleased with the polls but on hold. Boutef may perhaps name a defence minister; at present, the hasn’t yet won the war Chief of Staff runs the Ministry, enacts the President’s orders and signs documents in his name. Islamist violence and Kabyle protests continue, while Algerian The generals dislike the Bouteflika camp’s suggestion that a militants feature large in the United States’ ‘war against terrorism’. civilian could become defence minister, even a civilian with roots in Yet President Abdelaziz Bouteflika can feel more secure than ever the security establishment, like the President’s old ally, Interior since he took power in 1998, rejoicing (despite a low turnout) in the Minister Nourredine ‘Yazid’ Zerhouni. This one issue unites big majority secured by his allies in the former single party, the long-time rivals such as Lamari, who says he will not take another Front de Libération Nationale in the 30 May elections. The FLN job after his long spell as Chief of Staff ends, and military security now has 199 members of parliament in the new 389-seat Assemblée chief Mohamed ‘Tawfik’ Medienne, who is also expected to go Populaire Nationale. into gilded retirement. Such personal rivalries are the substance of Municipal elections will follow on 10 October, at which ‘every Algerian politics, whose analysts see the hand of the shadowy measure will be taken to allow voters to freely exercise their rights military establishment (known as ‘le pouvoir’, power) behind most in selecting their representatives’, according to the President’s political and much business life. Pouvoir manoeuvres give Bouteflika office. The five-year term of mayors and other elected local a headache and he regularly cites them to explain his periodic government officials ends on 22 October, by which time the attempts to resign. President expects to control most town councils outside Kabylie, The elections indicated that things were going Bouteflika’s way. where the Berber uprising against the agents of central government The FLN’s 199 MPs allowed him to confirm Prime Minister Ali continues. Benflis in his job and showed the ruling establishment and the ‘loyal Algeria has learned to organise elections amid continued violence opposition’ who was boss. The official turnout was 46.17 per cent involving Islamist organisations, shadowy death squads associated of the 18 million registered electors, compared to 65.49 per cent in with the security services and the Kabyle dissidents. The the 1997 polls. Even if the real turnout was much lower, it was government is especially angry with one of its opponents, Habib enough to allow the authorities to claim free and fair elections, Souaïdia, an ex-officer recently sued for slander in a Paris court by despite the Kabyle boycott. The claims and counter-claims drew a former Defence Minister, Major General Khaled Nezzar. What little comment from the USA or the European Union, which in April upset Nezzar were Souaïdia’s remarks during a May 2001 TV had finally signed a new ‘Euro-Med Partnership’ agreement with interview to promote his best-selling book ‘La Sale Guerre’ (‘The Algiers. Western governments had widely criticised past Algerian Dirty War’). Chief of Staff Lieutenant Gen. Mohammed Lamari elections, even when turnouts were much higher than in May. has dismissed Souaïdia’s claims of official brutality and declared The Rassemblement National Démocratique, a party which victory in the guerrilla war against the Groupe Islamique Armé prospered under the previous President, Lamine Zeroual, won 48 (GIA) and other Islamists. seats instead of its previous 155 and is now expected to lose members US and other international support is substantial. Since 11 to the FLN. The RND leader and Minister of State for Justice, September, US President George W. Bush has been in close touch Ahmed Ouyahia, an unpopular ‘eradicationist’ former Premier, with Bouteflika (AC Vol 43 No 1). US Ambassador Janet stood down as RND head: the little known Abdelkader Malki is Sanderson has been told to strengthen military/security cooperation interim leader. and Bouteflika’s security advisor, Maj. Gen. Mohamed Touati, The legalised Islamist groups that had been expected to do well

3 12 July 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 14

also polled badly, losing an overall 22 seats on the 1997 parliament (AC Vol 43 No 11). Sheikh Mahfoudh Nahnah’s Mouvement de TOGO la Société pour la Paix (Movement of Society for Peace – MSP, ex- Hamas) won 38 seats against 69 last time; Nahnah blamed ‘irregularities’. Sheikh Abdallah Djeballah edged ahead of his old rival Nahnah, with his Mouvement de la Réforme Nationale-Al Last of the dinosaurs Islah (MRN) taking 43 seats. Splits in the ruling party could finally bring The elections, even if flawed, brought a wider range of opinion the changes the opposition seeks into the Assembly. The Parti des Travailleurs (Workers’ Party, PT), led by the ‘Trotskyist’ anti-Islamist Louisa Hanoune, got 4.8 Most African leaders have at least made a stab at multi-party per cent of the declared vote and 21 seats instead of two. Another democracy over the last decade but Togo’s President Gnassingbé familiar face on French television, the anti-Islamist feminist Eyadéma has never really bothered. Opposition parties are barely Khalida Toumi-Messaoudi, became Communications and Culture tolerated; one of the main opposition leaders lives in exile, another Minister in place of Mohammed Abbou, who could not cope with recently got out of gaol. Now it looks as if the all-powerful journalists’ questions during the campaign. As government Rassemblement du Peuple Togolais (RPT) is crumbling beneath its spokesperson, Messaoudi may help to calm Kabylie and to reassure leader, after 30 years in power the French public that a solution to the crisis there exists. Prime Minister Agbéyomé Kodjo was sacked on 27 June, in a move Eyadéma tried to explain as preparing for long awaited Boycotting the polls parliamentary elections. He is in hiding and his wife is under house Faith in the electoral process was damaged by the stand of the main arrest. He had expressed support for another RPT dissident, Kabyle parties, Hocine Aït Ahmed’s Front des Forces Socialistes Dahuku Péré, a former president of parliament who in March (FFS) and Saïd Saadi’s Rassemblement pour la Culture et la wrote an open letter to the party leadership blaming the RPT for the Démocratie (RCD). They refused to take part while Kabylie was country’s steady slide into poverty. in ferment and their militants were on the streets. The Kabyle Kodjo, replaced as Premier by the ultra-loyalist RPT Secretary protest movement was formerly based on minority demands for General and Education Minister Kofi Sama, published a 14-page recognition of the Kabyle (Tamazight) language and some local letter the day after his sacking detailing some of the regime’s autonomy; it is now seen as representing Algeria’s wider malaise, abuses. Kodjo, a southern Ewe from Kpalimé, is a member of though the stand of the FFS and RCD had no effect outside Kabylie. Togo’s largest ethnic group, while Eyadéma is a northern Kabye. The new government suggests business as usual, with a more Eyadéma then sought to discredit Kodjo further by announcing an liberal tinge than its predecessor. The RND and MSP complained investigation into claims of corruption while he was head of the loudly about the polls but were pleased to accept a few posts in the Port Autonome de Lomé. coalition government. Influential non-party liberals, including Energy and Mines Minister Chakib Khelil, kept their jobs. Khelil’s Time to go ally Abdelmadjid Attar, former boss of the state energy company In 1999, Eyadéma announced that he would step down at the next Sonatrach, was named Minister of Water Resources, a troubled elections, as the constitution demands. Since then, there has been sector; this summer, there have already been some localised riots discreet jostling within the RPT to succeed him – along with about the dire urban water shortages and market reforms could speculation that he will change the law and seek a third term. bring more protests. Eyadéma’s barons include Moussa Barry Barké, the President’s Mohammed Terbeche, once a banker then a junior minister, has Special Advisor; Foreign Minister Pierre Koffi Panou, his son-in- replaced Mourad Medelci at the Finance Ministry, where he may law; Famboré Natchaba, National Assembly President; and try to speed reform of the financial sector. Noureddine Boukrouh, Gbéhon Amegboh, the powerful Secretary General of the a minor party politician with friends in the security establishment, presidency. They all suspect Kodjo of seeking to position himself became Commerce Minister, freeing Abdelhamid Temmar to as Eyadéma’s eventual successor. return to his preferred job – trying to restructure and privatise non- Natchaba is also after the job, which he feels should stay in the energy state companies. Khelil and Temmar came back to Algeria safe hands of northerners like himself and Eyadéma. The exiled with Bouteflika after years away (Khelil was at the World Bank) opposition leader Gilchrist Olympio, son of the democratically and share the President’s taste for economic reform. elected first President, Sylvanus Olympio, is Ewe, and Eyadéma’s Zerhouni has kept the Interior and Local Authorities portfolio inner circle doesn’t trust the Ewe. Worse, Kodjo is married to despite his clumsy handling of the Kabyle troubles. Abdelaziz Alfreda Amorin, whose opposition activist brother Tavio was Belkhadem (who is close to Bouteflika’s Chief of Staff and power- shot and fatally wounded in Lomé in 1992. broker, Larbi Belkheir) remains Minister of State for Foreign Gilchrist Olympio says he won the 1998 presidential election, in Affairs. Ouyahia’s election services were rewarded by his being which Eyadéma was declared winner with 52 per cent of votes appointed as the President’s personal representative; his Justice before all the ballots were counted (AC Vol 39 No 14). Large Ministry went to Mohamed Charfi, who is said to be close to numbers of bodies, thought to be of opposition supporters, were Belkheir. One of the RND’s founders, Abdelkader Bensalah, was found at sea or on beaches in neighbouring Benin. Olympio might elected head of the National Assembly’s upper house, the Conseil have won again next year, if it weren’t for a law passed in February de la Nation, following the death in Paris last month of Mohamed that stipulates that presidential candidates must have resided in Cherif Messaadia, an unpopular and veteran power-broker. In Togo for a year before elections. Algeria’s closed political system, even the new faces are familiar, Ironically, in the home of the Lomé Convention, most aid has as the establishment renews itself in preparation for five more been suspended for a decade, ever since the violent suppression of years of power. pro-democracy protests as Eyadéma resisted pressure for reform.

4 12 July 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 14

International mediators have been coming and going for just as aid could resume. Protesting Togolese exiles pelted his motorcade long, with little effect. A framework agreement between with tomatoes and eggs. government and opposition in July 1999, the Accord-cadre de If he is to end the deadlock and revive the flow of money to his Lomé, provided for new legislative elections supervised by an crippled country, Eyadéma will have to engineer a political process independent electoral commission, to replace the polls of March that France can sell to the rest of the EU as sufficiently democratic. 1999, which the opposition had boycotted. The new government in Paris knows Eyadéma well and may have The commission was duly established in December 1999 but the the necessary political will. Foreign Minister Dominique de polls have been postponed several times and the commission’s Villepin has long experience in Africa and, in Madagascar (where opposition representatives withdrew their cooperation in protest on 3 July, he visited the then aspiring President Marc after the gaoling in August 2001 of Yaovi Agboyibo, ironically for Ravalomanana, ignoring his rival, France’s old friend Didier defaming the Prime Minister who has just been sacked. In May, Ratsiraka) has already shown his willingness to intervene actively Eyadéma replaced the commission with a panel of seven judges. in domestic political tangles.

Poverty bites With no aid coming in, Togo is in arrears to the African Development ZAMBIA Bank and the World Bank, which suspended its remaining aid in January. The economy, hard hit by a general strike in 1992-93, recovered somewhat in January 1994 after the CFA franc was Levy at war devalued by 50 per cent but Togo never really recovered its former status as a trading entrepôt. According to Kodjo, the state-owned As the new President fights the old crowd, Office Togolais des Phosphates is a key source of presidential even mattresses are weapons funds, despite declining output. He cites bills of CFA 2 billion President Levy Mwanawasa has declared war on Frederick (US$3 million) for drinks for a millennium party, CFA 250 mn. for Chiluba, the man he replaced at the election last December. a bust of the head of state and CFA 40 mn. for an ornamental cane Chiluba’s friends regard Mwanawasa as weak and ungrateful; they as a gift to him. Starved of funds, the country’s infrastructure has say he was handed the presidential nomination by Chiluba and has ground to a halt. Schools and hospitals built in more prosperous now turned against his sponsor; and they are deploying against him days have no equipment. With no foreigners, no nightlife and their old friends in the military and intelligence services. almost no street stalls, Lomé looks more like an old East Bloc city Mwanawasa is purging those services and suggesting that Chiluba than a West African capital. should be prosecuted on corruption charges. This personal battle In his letter, Kodjo accuses Eyadéma of running the country as has split the ruling Movement for Multi-party Democracy (MMD) if it were under a permanent state of emergency, taking power over and could threaten Mwanawasa’s hold on power. the administration and judiciary, and particularly over tax and Lacking supporters at home, the President is looking outside. In customs receipts, which he says are paid into an account under the South Africa this week for the launch of the African Union, he President’s personal control. He accuses Eyadéma’s son Colonel spoke up for Libya’s Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi, who in May Ernest Gnassingbé, another potential successor, of abuse of paid Zambia’s arrears to the AU’s predecessor, the Organisation of authority and maltreatment of detainees. African Unity (OAU). He also spoke up for Angolan President Crucially, Eyadéma has the support of his old friend French José Eduardo dos Santos, whose government helped fund President Jacques Chirac, who visited Lomé in 1999 on a tour that Mwanawasa’s election campaign. also took him to Cameroon and Guinea, two other states that fall somewhat short of the democratic ideal. The French navy carried Chiluba’s libel battle out military exercises with its Togolese counterpart in May, just A libel case encapsulates the Chiluba-Mwanawasa duel. Chiluba, before the EU decided to pull out its ‘facilitation mission’ which when in power, ordered the arrest for criminal libel of two journalists, was supposed to be overseeing and encouraging the shift towards Fred Mmembe and Bivan Saluseki, and two opposition members proper democratic procedures. The EU said the process was no of parliament, Dipak Patel and Edith Nawakwi. All four had longer advancing and the replacement of the electoral commission called Chiluba ‘a thief’ and defend themselves by producing by Eyadéma’s team of judges meant it no longer met the conditions examples of state corruption under his presidency. The of the 1999 agreement. The EU’s withdrawal leaves just Lansana documentation is so strong that Mwanawasa’s office is suspected Kouyaté, former Secretary General of the Economic Community of discreetly helping to compile it from official house files. Alarmed, of West African States, as a neutral observer with little clout. Chiluba tried to withdraw the case but the Director of Public On 2 July, the World Bank’s Energy Sector Manager for the Prosecutions refused. If the defendants win, they could counter- Africa region, Ananda Covindassamy, listed Togo even above claim for wrongful arrest. Zimbabwe as a source of concern to the Bank, which worries that Donald Chanda, Chiluba’s former economic advisor, failed to Togo’s troubles could endanger the West African Gas Pipeline answer questions about the use of state funds and was imprisoned from Nigeria to Ghana, a key plank in the Bank’s energy strategy for eight days for contempt of court. Others summoned as witnesses for Africa. include Chiluba himself and Xavier Chungu, his former intelligence Eyadéma enjoys some status as Africa’s longest serving head of director. Chungu faces questions about a now closed intelligence state, hosting diplomatic meetings interspersed with African account, number 58/C40/70185/01, held at the Zambia National wrestling tournaments at the presidential palace in his home Commercial bank in London under the name Zamtrop, for which he village of Pya. He visited Brussels in June to put his case to the was the sole signatory; it is said to have been used to pay Chiluba’s European Commission: President Romano Prodi firmly told him personal expenses. that Togo must organise transparent parliamentary elections before Defence lawyers have asked the court to order Chiluba and

5 12 July 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 14

Chungu to surrender their passports. Chiluba says this is him out of the MMD in 1993, when Mwanawasa was Vice-President. disrespectful and retains his passport; Chungu’s was confiscated. The latest allegation is that Sata stole thousands of mattresses, used Both men are under continuous surveillance by security officers. during the MMD convention last year. Police summoned party The independent Post newspaper cheers on Mwanawasa: ‘There is National Secretary Vernon Mwaanga to explain how the mattresses need to thoroughly cleanse the MMD and the government of these had disappeared. He declined to provide evidence against Sata, jackals – after all the fight has been instigated by themselves. Give saying the MMD National Executive Committee (NEC) had resolved it to them Levy!’ the matter; Sata said Mwanawasa should be arrested, since the In another court case, it is claimed that the government lost at mattresses were also used for his presidential campaign last year. least US$60 million in 1998-99, after junior officials from the On 19 June, Mwanawasa started purging his government of those state-owned Zambia Consolidated Copper Mines signed a cobalt suspected of loyalty to Chiluba. He replaced a number of permanent marketing contract with Bahamas-based Metal Resources Group secretaries and district administrators with his own appointees and (AC Vol 43 No 12). Mwanawasa and Finance Minister Emmanuel sacked Samuel Musonda, ex-Chief Executive of Zambia National Kasonde must decide whether to order a criminal investigation Commercial Bank, through whom it is alleged that the Chiluba into who benefited from this arrangement. The European Union, government made some irregular payments. which financed an audit of the cobalt sales to MRG, is encouraging Also fired was the air force commander Sundie Kayumba, who Mwanawasa to take firm action, and so is the International Monetary got the job without (as tradition demanded) having been a pilot. Fund. The new government’s investigators are said to have tracked His replacement, recalled and promoted to lieutenant general, is down some state funds said to have been stolen in Chiluba’s time Christopher Singogo, who was himself dismissed as deputy and have linked the former President to the ownership of a private commander by Mwanawasa early this year, when some Chilubaists jet currently parked at Lanseria Airport in South Africa. framed him as being an opposition member. Others dismissed Mwanawasa’s main offence was to create his own inner circle, were the police chief, Silas Ngangula; his deputy, Emmanuel sidelining Chiluba’s team of seasoned politicians, who control the Lukonde, and the Zambia National Service Commandant, Wilford party machine. Mwanawasa’s backers, many of whom opposed Fungika. Chiluba when he was President, are political novices whose strength A day later, Mwanawasa noticed that the dismissed commanders lies in their new government jobs. Some are opposition members, would enjoy unusual retirement packages, signed by Chiluba the appointed by Mwanawasa to senior positions – the failed presidential day before he left office. They would receive 80 per cent of the candidate Inonge Mbikusita-Lewanika has been made OAU incumbent’s monthly salary, two domestic servants, two personal roving Ambassador, Bwalya Ngandu was appointed Chief security guards, and the right to buy their luxurious official vehicles. Executive of the state-owned development bank. Mwanawasa considered these packages mischievous, too heavy for the defence budget and ‘a trap for the incoming administration’; KK backs Levy adding that Chiluba had left a lot of ‘mess’ which he was now The Chilubaists grumble that patronage is not coming their way cleaning up. and are furious about Mwanawasa’s alliance with Zambia’s This was Mwanawasa’s first direct attack on Chiluba. Nothing founding President, Kenneth Kaunda, who detests Chiluba and has since emerged from numerous attempts to reconcile the MMD’s the MMD – especially since Chiluba arrested Kaunda on treason warring camps, including a meeting of its NEC in March, when charges in 1997. Mwanawasa and Kaunda celebrated African Mwanawasa was elected acting party President on the proposal of Freedom Day together at State House, the first official function the known Chilubaists, Eric Silwamba and Peter Machungwa. Kaunda has attended since Chiluba unseated him in 1991. Kavindele, as party Vice-President, should according to the rules That same day, ‘concerned MMD members’ published a full- have replaced Chiluba after he retired but both camps had agreed to page advertisement in the Post, accusing Mwanawasa of tribalism seek a compromise. In the same spirit, Mwanawasa invited the and of appointing only people from his Lenje group in central known Chilubaist Mwaanga to join his delegation to Tanzania, Zambia. Subsequent adverts alleged that he was insane and urged thus demonstrating the MMD’s unity. Vice-President Enock Kavindele to call an emergency cabinet meeting to relieve him of his duties. Fighting dirty The accusations of tribalism were taken up by some of the The hope of compromise faded shortly afterwards, when anonymous Bemba people, among whom Mwanawasa won most of his votes in adverts attacking Mwanawasa resurfaced, and the deputy Minister the Copperbelt, Luapula and Northern provinces. His sympathisers of Northern Province, Peter Filamba, claimed that a group of then ran their own full-page ad detailing all senior government senior MMD leaders had been plotting Mwanawasa’s overthrow. positions. It showed that, though there are many Lenje in An indignant Mwaanga promptly suspended Filamba from the Mwanawasa’s inner circle, Bembas still have the majority in the party until he named the plotters. Mwanawasa, annoyed by new government; Chiluba himself is Bemba. Filamba’s suspension, declared it lifted, accused Mwaanga of As Chiluba’s intelligence director, Chungu was closely involved fostering divisions and asked him to resign from the MMD. On 21 with his boss and annoyed Mwanawasa by saving his old antagonist June in a letter to Mwanawasa, Mwaanga said the President had no Michael Sata from a gaol sentence. Sata, who resigned from his power to lift the suspension and refused to resign from the party ‘to ministerial job last year in protest against the choice of Mwanawasa give you the opportunity to bring in some of your colleagues and as MMD presidential candidate, was recently arrested and charged turncoats of doubtful loyalty to the MMD’. with stealing a vehicle. In Sata’s defence, Chungu stated that the It is widely believed that this defiant letter was in fact drafted by vehicle belonged to the intelligence wing and was given to him for Chiluba. A group of Copperbelt parliamentarians have united to an operation. The court acquitted Sata and the new government’s flush out Mwaanga but others remain coy. Some pro-Chiluba MPs lawyers said they would appeal. who serve in the new government stayed away from a recent press Mwanawasa seems determined to gaol Sata, the man who forced conference to demand Mwaanga’s resignation; notable absentees

6 12 July 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 14 were MMD Chairman Chitalu Sampa, Webster Chipili, Roy also given way on OAU Secretary General and former Côte d’Ivoire Chulumanda and his brother George Chulumanda, who is deputy Foreign Minister Amara Essy. Health Minister. The split deepens daily. Essy stays on AFRICAN UNION The reformers wanted to sack Essy, who is close to Tripoli and describes Gadaffi as a ‘driving force in Africa’. Essy has also proved extremely unpopular with the OAU secretariat, which accuses him of spending more time in Paris than Ethiopia. Yet the Council of Part of the union Ministers’ recommendation that he be given another year as AU Old quarrels and an old reluctance to pay ‘interim Secretary General’ looks likely to stand. After that, he may union dues mark the rebranding of the OAU be replaced by a higher profile figure such as Mali’s quietly lobbying former President, Alpha Oumar Konaré. South Africa won a narrow points victory in the battles surrounding The AU’s formidable task is to establish 17 new institutions, the launching of the African Union (AC Vol 42 No 14) in Durban this including: an annual assembly or summit of heads of state; an executive week. At stake is the old Organisation of African Unity doctrine of council of foreign ministers; a commission modelled on the European non-intervention in the affairs of member states. The reform wing Commission, with a chairperson, deputy and eight commissioners, behind the AU wants it to break emphatically with ‘non-intervention’ and responsibility for organising all meetings and interventions; a 15- and take a strong public stand from the start on good governance, member peace and security council to monitor and intervene in corruption and human rights. conflicts, and control a pre-stationed African peacekeeping force; a The reformers are led by SA President Thabo Mbeki, Nigeria’s pan-African parliament to represent civil society organisations; a pan- President Olusegun Obasanjo and Senegal’s President Abdoulaye African court of justice and human rights; an economic, social and Wade (even though their own reform records are less than stellar); the cultural council, charged with setting up a central bank, monetary fund dissidents, led by Libya’s Colonel Moammar el Gadaffi, are a and investment bank. motley collection of autocrats such as Zimbabwe’s President Robert More immediately, the AU faces a crisis of cash and morale. Some Mugabe, Kenya’s President Daniel arap Moi and Gambia’s President of the best OAU officials have left because of low salaries and Yahya Jammeh, who style themselves as African nationalists opposed bureaucratic in-fighting. Officials say the AU plans require a budgetary to foreign interference. rethink if they are to stand a chance. To judge by contributions, On the surface, peace and unity reigned at the AU’s spectacular members’ commitment to the pan-African organisation is still low. launch party on 9 July, when 20,000 spectators were treated to a cast Arrears to the OAU run at $35 million (down from $54 mn. in 2000) of African music stars, and Senegal’s World Cup football heroes, the and funds are vital to recruit more staff and re-equip headquarters. Lions de Teranga, played South Africa’s Bafana Bafana. Behind the Wealthier states such as South Africa, Nigeria, Angola, Algeria fun is the manoeuvring for control of committees and the crafting of and Botswana are expected to increase contributions. The African resolutions. Firstly, Mbeki fought off demands from Libya and its Development Bank will back research studies on the African monetary allies for a year’s deferral of the launch of the AU, which would take fund and central bank plans. Libya’s Gadaffi prefers to bail out states place in Tripoli. Calls by Zambia’s President Levy Mwanawasa on a bilateral basis to maximise diplomatic advantage but was prepared (whose government received some Libyan largesse in May) for the to bankroll the building of the secretariat or the African parliament if secretariat to move from Addis Adaba to Tripoli were also rejected. he could have persuaded the assembly to locate them in Tripoli. Some More dramatically, South African security agents grounded most of Western finance through the European Union may be available to the 60 cars in Gadaffi’s motorcade, flown in last week. SA agents also revamp the AU secretariat in Addis. EU and US money will help faced down Libyan officials when they flew into Durban with two finance some of the peace and security councils’ operations, including aeroplanes carrying small arms. On 10 July, the Mozambican an early warning and conflict monitoring operation. Many of the government impounded a Libyan plane bearing weapons which landed African peacekeeping troops available to the peace and security at Maputo Airport, where Gadaffi was due days later. council may benefit from French, British and United States military Mbeki also defeated Gadaffi’s plan for the chairperson of the AU to training initiatives which the G8 summit pledged to expand in one of hold the post for five years; Gadaffi had seen himself as the first the few substantive benefits for Africa at the Kananaskis summit. incumbent in the job. Mbeki and his friend Obasanjo have defended the New Partnership for Africa’s Development (NePAD) as the Visit our website at: www.africa-confidential.com ideological backbone of the AU against attack from several leaders Published fortnightly (25 issues per year) by Africa Confidential, at such as Mugabe and Gadaffi who distrust its peer review provisions. 73 Farringdon Road, London EC1M 3JQ, England. AU member states will be asked to submit to a review of governance Tel: +44 20-7831 3511. Fax: +44 20-7831 6778. Copyright reserved. Editor: Patrick Smith. Deputy Editors: Gillian Lusk standards (including accountability and human rights) to qualify for and Thalia Griffiths. Administration: Clare Tauben and Juliet Amissah. NePAD’s health, education and infrastructure fund, to which the Group of Eight industrial countries have promised US$6 billion. Annual subscriptions including postage, cheques payable to Africa Confidential in advance: Gadaffi calls NePAD a neo-colonial plan designed to please Institutions: Africa £312 – UK/Europe £347 – USA $874 – ROW £452 ‘colonialists and racists’. Corporates: Africa £404 – UK/Europe £425 – USA $985 – ROW £531 However, Mbeki has compromised. NePAD’s 15-strong Students (with proof): Africa/UK/Europe/ROW £87 or USA $125 implementation committee will now be 20-strong; new members All prices may be paid in equivalent convertible currency. We accept include Gadaffi and Moi, both hostile to multi-party democracy. American Express, Diner’s Club, Mastercard and Visa credit cards. Subscription enquiries to: Africa Confidential, PO Box 805, Oxford OX4 Reform-minded officials worry that they will dilute the ‘peer review’ 1FH England. Tel: 44 (0)1865 244083 and Fax: 44 (0)1865 381381 and prevent it from censuring such governments as those of Zimbabwe, Printed in England by Duncan Print and Packaging Ltd, Herts, UK. Sudan or Liberia, let alone their own regimes. Mbeki and allies have ISSN 0044-6483

7 12 July 2002 Africa Confidential Vol 43 No 14

even though it admits some 600,000 cards have President Chen Shui-bian visited on 3-4 July and Pointers yet to be distributed. The opposition says the true promised housing, stadiums and libraries. number is far greater and notes distribution has Last year the International Monetary Fund been slower in the north, stronghold of Ouattara’s suspended budget support to São Tomé and insisted HIV/AIDS Rassemblement des Républicains. The 1999 coup on a strict Staff Monitored Programme including interrupted distribution, a problem unforeseen by close scrutiny of oil deals. Donors are curious Scant aid for AIDS a 1998 law which made the old yellow ID cards about a May 2001 contract which gave a fat share invalid after January 2000. of potential oil revenue to the United States- The International AIDS conference in Barcelona President Laurent Gbagbo warned on 5 July based, Nigerian-owned, Environmental on 7-12 July underlined how Africa bears the that security forces would arrest troublemakers, in Remediation Holding Corporation, which says it brunt of the pandemic. The figures are more a TV speech followed by an oath of loyalty by has not been asked to renegotiate the deal. In alarming than ever. The United Nations estimates armed forces chief General Mathias Doué. 1997 Trovoada’s government signed a contract 68 million people will die from AIDS in the 45 Voting was peaceful, if chaotic. ADO avoided committing ERHC’s former US owners to promote worst affected countries in the next 18 years. confrontation, leaving Abidjan without trying to the islands’ oil interests. That contract went to Over 70 per cent of the 40 mn. people infected vote; his RDR called off a march planned for 9 arbitration at the International Chamber of are in sub-Saharan Africa. In 2002, 2.2 mn. died July. The nationality question may not be closed, Commerce in Paris but was revived last year when in Africa from AIDS. The UN predicts that life though. The President of the Abidjan tribunal Nigerian businessman Emeka Offor’s Chrome expectancy in countries such as Botswana where refused to sign the certificate, and it was Vice- Energy bought ERHC. That left Chrome well 39 per cent of sexually active adults are HIV- President Matoh Cissé who put her name to it. placed to benefit from a carve-up of the potentially positive will drop below 30 by 2020. Populations Notre Voie, party newspaper of Gbagbo’s Front oil-rich waters between Nigeria and São Tomé. across southern Africa will shrink. Countries Populaire Ivoirien, virulently attacked Cissé as The IMF is also unhappy about overruns in such as Zambia are training three times more ‘the Guinean who calls herself Ivorian’; it accused São Tomé’s budget spending, funded by a US$2 teachers because of the high death rate. her of receiving a 50 million CFA franc bribe. FPI million signature bonus paid in March 2001 by AIDS is recognised as one of the chief obstacles politicians suggest there may be plans to invalidate Norway’s Petroleum Geo-Services. In December to development. But recognition isn’t helping the certificate. The FPI and ex-President Henri the new government sought the World Bank’s much. Donors’ poverty reduction strategies require Konan Bédié’s Parti Démocratique de la Côte advice on the oil deals it had inherited and promised governments to write in policies to tackle the d’Ivoire each won 18 councils. The RDR won ten to spend this year’s income on badly needed disease. Yet campaigners say the bureaucratic and former military leader Gen. Robert Gueï’s infrastructure, schools and health. Menezes has framework falls ludicrously short of what’s needed. Union pour la Démocratie et la Paix en Côte said he’d prefer to hand over the oil money for the A study by the UK-based NGO Oxfam found that d’Ivoire won three. Coalitions won four Bank to handle. Sadly, government is just not that half the 26 countries obtaining debt relief under départements, independents another five. simple, even in a state with only 165,000 people. the World Bank and International Monetary Fund The central town of Daloa is under curfew after Heavily Indebted Poor Countries initiative spent clashes between indigenous Bétés and northern BUSHMEAT more on debt servicing than on health. Zambia Dioulas on 25-26 June, when at least six people spends 30 per cent more, while Cameroon spends died and 50 were injured. Violence began when Sustainable soup three and a half times more. Campaigners want Bétés set up an FPI-PDCI rally near the main The UK Bushmeat Campaign has now gathered HIPC countries to spend no more than five per mosque and spread to the countryside, where sufficient momentum to ensure that senior cent of government revenue on debt servicing. Bétés chased Dioulas from their villages and diplomats from Cameroon, Ghana and South In 2000, the UN set up a global fund to combat burned huts. Over 2,000 were forced to flee, Africa attended a 9 July meeting in London. After AIDS, tuberculosis and malaria, saying developing mostly Ivorian Dioulas but also some 500 Malians initial protests from traditional bushmeat eaters, countries needed US$10 billion annually. Some and some Burkinabès. Clashes have occurred the Campaign is now calling more tactfully for a $2 bn. has been committed but only $200 mn. has elsewhere and if Bétés fulfill threats to recover the sustainable use of resources. Campaigners led by arrived. African countries spend only $3-$10 on land, conflict could spread. London’s Brent North MP Barry Gardiner stress health per capita each year: anti-retroviral this is a development issue, not just a conservation treatment costs at least $300 annually. SÃO TOMÉ E PRÍNCIPE one, involving people as well as wildlife. Claims by American biotechnology company While bushmeat is a vital source of protein for VaxGen that an AIDS vaccine could be available Murky waters forest populations, problems start with larger- by 2005 failed to brighten the picture. The vaccine President Fradique de Menezes must perform a scale hunting and the building of roads into virgin is being developed for the ‘B’ strain of the virus tricky balancing act – developing the oil sector forest. Campaigners would like wildlife prevalent in the USA and Asia. In Africa, the ‘A’ under transparency rules which donors insist on management included in poverty reduction strain is commonest. and keeping his big Nigerian neighbours happy strategies and discussed at the 26 August-4 (AC Vol 43 No 3). In late May he criticised oil September Johannesburg World Summit on CÔTE D’IVOIRE deals struck under Miguel Trovoada, the President Sustainable Development. Government controls he replaced last September. On 3 June he was are not always successful; villagers may resent À la carte visited by Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, outsiders telling them what to do on their traditional Opposition leader Alassane Dramane Ouattara who advised him to say no more in public about lands. Organising hunters into cooperatives and was at last granted a nationality certificate on 28 the matter and agreed to review their joint encouraging pepper-soup sellers to use less June (AC Vol 43 No 10) but was still unable to exploration agreement. endangered species works better, but resources to vote in district council elections on 7 July. The Another potential benefactor is Taiwan, which police wildlife reserves are scant, especially when government insisted only those with a new green has garnered the tiny state’s support in its battle well meaning donors build roads like one in identity card or a special certificate could vote, against China for diplomatic recognition. Cameroon along the edge of the Dja Reserve. 8