GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM Lecture Series 2012 - 2013 www.globalstrategyforum.org GSF 2013 Cover.indd 1 06/11/2013 14:04 Rt Hon Jack Straw MP and Lord Lothian Dr Alexander Yakovenko and Lord Lothian Rt Hon Lord Howell of Guildford and Lord Lothian US election debate panellists Syria debate panellists Sir Nigel Sheinwald and Lord Lothian Sir Sherard Cowper-Coles and Sir Malcolm Rifkind Sir David Manning and Lord Lothian GSF 2013 Cover.indd 2 06/11/2013 14:05 www.globalstrategyforum.org GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM Lecture Series 2012 - 2013 3 www.globalstrategyforum.org 4 www.globalstrategyforum.org GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM President Johan Eliasch is the first President of Global Strategy Forum. He has served as Chairman of the Management Board of Head N.V. (the global sporting goods group) and Group Chief Executive Officer since September 1995. He is Chairman of Equity Partners, London Films, Co-Chairman of Cool Earth, non-executive Chairman of Investcorp Europe and non-executive director of CV Starr Underwriting Agents. He is an advisory board member of Brasilinvest, Societe du Louvre, the Centre for Social Justice, and a member of the Mayor of London’s and Rome’s International Business Advisory Council. He is Patron of Stockholm University and a trustee of the Kew Foundation. He was part of the Conservative Shadow Foreign Office team as special advisor on European Affairs (1999-2003) and responsible for foreign relations (2003-2005). He was Conservative Deputy Party Treasurer (2003- 2007). He is the former Special Representative of the Prime Minister of the UK for Deforestation and Clean Energy (2007-2010). Chairman Lord Lothian is the first Chairman of the Forum. Michael Lothian was first elected to Parliament as Michael Ancram in 1974. His political career included four years as the Political Minister in Northern Ireland responsible for the opening engagements with the IRA which eventually led to the Good Friday Agreement, Chairman of the Conservative Party for three years, and four years as Shadow Foreign Secretary and Deputy Leader of the Opposition. He remains involved in international conflict resolution. He co-founded Global Strategy Forum in 2006 and remains its Chairman. He was appointed to the House of Lords as a life peer in October 2010. He is a member of the Intelligence and Security Committee. Director Jacqueline Jinks is the Director of Global Strategy Forum. She joined Global Strategy Forum as Research Director in June 2006 and became the Director in February 2008. From 1997-2005, she was Political Secretary and speechwriter to Lord Moynihan, a former Conservative Senior Spokesman on Foreign Affairs in the House of Lords. She worked for the Rt Hon Michael Howard QC MP and the Rt Hon Francis Maude MP, during their respective tenures as Shadow Foreign Secretary. Prior to that, she worked for the Democratic National Committee (1996-1997) and CMA Consultants (1994-1996). Treasurer Adrian de Ferranti was the founder of Ferranti Ltd, an early stage venture capital business. He was also a founder and/or Chairman of Tantus PLC, Cambridge Computer Graphics, Chelford PLC, and PTG. He had an early career at European Banking Company, Murray Johnstone, followed by Montgomery Securities. He is currently the Chairman, Director or investor in NEST, Same Wave, SMB, Ampair, Plasmanet, Updata, Ziani’s, Como Lario, Ferranti Farming, and Small Business Bureau. He was the Chairman and Trustee of the Royal Institution of Great Britain from 2007 to 2010. From 2007-13 he was Chairman of the Foundation at Heriot Watt University. He was also a Treasurer of the Conservative Party from 1991 to 2004. 5 www.globalstrategyforum.org 6 www.globalstrategyforum.org PRESIDENT’S FOREWORD THE FOUNDATION of Global Strategy Forum in 2006 coincided with a troubled time in Britain’s external position. The Iraq and Afghan campaigns had both run into major difficulties with the result that far-reaching questions were being asked of British defence and foreign policy. The debate in London, however, was frustratingly circular. There were too many entrenched positions and captive opinions. It was Michael Lothian’s and my view that we needed a fresh platform for debate from which we could explore new ideas and propose new solutions that went beyond those already under discussion in more conventional formats. So GSF was born. This is the seventh annual collection of GSF lectures to which I have written the introduction. The easy claim to make would be that, in the years since our foundation, the choices facing British foreign and defence policy have become clearer or more attractive. This is hardly the case. After a decade of expeditionary warfare shaped by the deployments in Libya, Iraq and Afghanistan, we may be witnessing a decisive change in public opinion no less momentous than after the climactic Suez experience in 1956. Seen from London in October 2013, a gap appears to be opening between the traditional inclination of international relations experts to favour activist engagement and the wider parliamentary and public sentiment which seems content to hang back. On issue after issue, it is no longer evident that we have a clear understanding of how best to calibrate our response or how to match our resources to our ambitions. In the Middle East, new actors are challenging the UK and other legacy powers. On Africa, we appear torn between regarding the continent as an emerging commercial bonanza or as a continuing humanitarian disaster. With regard to the likes of China, Russia, India and Latin America, a consistent British profile is proving elusive. Closer to home, the UK’s fault lines with Europe have deepened, with the prospect of rupture no longer unthinkable. This state of introspection and pause for reflection is hardly unique to the UK. In the US, similar currents underlie the foreign policy debate. While the US remains the single most powerful nation in the world, policymakers there are also having to contend with political and public opinion pressures that appear increasingly willing to question the post-World War II instinctive forward engagement on the part of the US. And in as far as this attitude continues at all, it seems to focus more on the Asia-Pacific region than on Europe. These questions are exceptionally challenging. Of course, this underlines the vital necessity for a robust debate designed to set the stage for a new national consensus about Britain’s place in the world. This is where I see Global Strategy Forum’s essential contribution. Our aim is to test conventional wisdom by providing a forum which actively encourages truly fresh ideas that can help forge a new consensus about how the UK engages with the world beyond our shores. My vision for GSF is thus ambitious. And also, I am confident, achievable. Over the seven years of its existence, there is much to take pride in. GSF has emerged as an active player in the international relations community where foreign affairs experts and concerned citizens can speak to each other. Our events series is now part of the foreign affairs conversation in London. This exceptional collection of lectures will, I feel certain, enhance GSF’s well-established reputation as a unique venue for truly independent, expert and fearless examination of the foreign policy questions facing our country. 7 www.globalstrategyforum.org This would not be possible without the support we receive both from our speakers and from our members. As always, I must express my deep thanks to all our contributors, whose willingness to share their extensive knowledge and expertise continues to be central to GSF’s success; and also to our membership, whose diverse views, questions and contributions are what make GSF a uniquely interactive and dynamic organisation. I would also like to thank our Advisory Board members, a list of whom can be found at the back of this publication, under whose guidance and leadership GSF has flourished. As we begin our 2013-2014 season, I anticipate another lively and active events programme, characterised by the high-quality debate upon which GSF’s reputation is founded and I look forward to working with all our supporters to this end. Johan Eliasch President, Global Strategy Forum October 2013 8 www.globalstrategyforum.org ABOUT GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM GLOBAL STRATEGY FORUM was founded by Lord Lothian (then the Rt Hon Michael Ancram MP) and Johan Eliasch in 2006 for the purpose of generating open debate and discussion on key foreign affairs, defence and international security issues. As an independent, non-party political, non-ideological organisation, GSF provides a platform to explore some of the more challenging and contentious aspects of UK foreign policy and to stimulate imaginative ideas and innovative thinking in a rapidly changing global landscape. We aim to bring together those with a strong interest in international affairs and offer them the opportunity to exchange ideas and engage in informed debate. In accordance with our founding remit, we continue to work to build and strengthen the diverse and influential network of policymakers, practitioners and international affairs experts who meet under GSF’s auspices. Through our publications and our website, we enable their expertise to be disseminated widely. GSF’s core activity consists of a regular lunchtime lecture and debate series on topical issues. For more in-depth discussion of specific topics, we host seminars in the House of Lords. We also hold small roundtable lunches and dinners on key issues of the day. Separately, as well as our annual compendium of lectures and the publication of the proceedings of our seminars, we also publish an occasional series both of monographs and collections of essays and articles by distinguished experts. We are supported by a strong and active Advisory Board of MPs, Peers and experienced foreign and defence policy practitioners.