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Stabilisierung Der Eurozone – Deutsch-Französische Lösungsstrategien Wolfgang Quaisser

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Stabilisierung Der Eurozone – Deutsch-Französische Lösungsstrategien Wolfgang Quaisser AKADEMIE FÜR POLITISCHE BILDUNG TUTZING AKADEMIE-KURZANALYSE 2/2018 Juli 2018 Stabilisierung der Eurozone – Deutsch-französische Lösungsstrategien Wolfgang Quaisser Akademie-Kurzanalysen ISSN 2509-9868 www.apb-tutzing.de 2-2018 | AKADEMIE-KURZANALYSE 1 Hintergrund hat 2017 eine deutsch-französische Gruppe von 14 Ökonominnen und Ökonomen einen Dialog begonnen, um die unterschiedlichen europa- und wirtschaftspolitischen Positionen an- Stabilisierung der einander anzugleichen. Das Ergebnis ist ein Posi- tionspapier, das konkrete Vorschläge enthält, die Eurozone – Eurozone zum Vorteil aller zu stabilisieren.1 Deutsch-französische Das Konzept hat aus politischer Sicht den Vor- teil, dass es keine Maximalforderungen enthält Lösungsstrategien und damit für alle Mitgliedsländer akzeptabel er- scheint. Die Autoren betonen, dass die Vorschläge nur als Gesamtpaket wirken können. Eine solche komplexe Reform, die zudem in den sachlichen Wolfgang Quaisser Details auch in den jeweiligen Ländern umstritten ist, lässt sich jedoch zum gegenwärtigen Zeitpunkt auf europäischer Ebene politisch kaum durchsetzen beziehungsweise, es fehlt der Mut dazu. Darin wird Zusammenfassung: jedoch das Hauptproblem liegen, denn die Gefahr Den wirtschaftlichen Aufschwung ist groß, dass nur Teilbereiche realisiert werden und dadurch der austarierte Kompromiss zwischen für Reformen nutzen Gemeinschaftshaftung und Eigenverantwortung einzelner Mitgliedsländer zulasten einer Seite nicht Seit Jahren wird ein Umbau der Währungsunion realisiert wird. Aus diesem Grunde ist wenigstens gefordert, um sie langfristig zu stabilisieren. Mit darauf zu achten, dass mögliche Teilreformen eine dem Sieg von Emmanuel Macron bei den Präsident- Balance zwischen Solidarität und nationaler Ver- schaftswahlen in Frankreich im Mai 2017 und der antwortung wahren. Bildung der Großen Koalition in Deutschland im Frühjahr 2018 ergibt sich ein Zeitfenster, wichtige europäische Initiativen vor der Europawahl im Mai Der Euro: Totgesagte leben länger 2019 voranzubringen. Günstig ist der Zeitpunkt auch deshalb, weil sich das wirtschaftliche Umfeld Trotz aller Verwerfungen und entgegen aller Horror- mit einem höheren Wirtschaftswachstum und einer szenarien ist der Euro nicht auseinandergebrochen. niedrigeren Arbeitslosigkeit in ganz Europa zum Das ist schon eine Leistung für sich, doch um den Besseren gewendet hat. Schon kurz nach der Wahl Preis, dass ursprüngliche Prinzipien (No-Bail- von Macron kündigten der damalige Bundesfinanz- Out-Klausel und das Verbot zur Finanzierung minister Wolfgang Schäuble und sein neuer fran- der öffentlichen Haushalte durch die Europäische zösischer Amtskollege Bruno Le Maire eine »neue Zentralbank) aufgeweicht wurden. Offensichtlich Dynamik« bei der Integration der Eurozone an. haben die politischen Verantwortlichen in Europa Die Vorstellungen über eine Stabilisierung der die Kosten eines Auseinanderbrechens der Wäh- Währungsunion gehen jedoch weit auseinander. rungsunion höher eingeschätzt als die enormen Verkürzt lässt sich dies so zusammenfassen: Paris Rettungs- und Garantiesummen. Unterstützt durch drängt auf mehr Gemeinschaftshaftung und ein die Politik hat die Europäische Zentralbank (EZB) gemeinsames Eurobudget, Deutschland will die mit ihrer ultralockeren Geldpolitik alles unternom- Maastricht-Vereinbarung insbesondere bezüglich des Prinzips der Einheit von »Risiko und Haftung« 1 Agnès Bénassy-Quéré / Markus K Brunnermeier / Henrik stärken. Die EU-Kommission fordert wiederum Enderlein / Emmanuel Farhi / Marcel Fratzscher / Clemens vor allem die Stärkung der Gemeinschaftsmethode, Fuest / Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas / Philippe Martin / Jean das heißt mehr Macht. Diese Positionen lassen sich Pisani-Ferry / Hélène Rey / Isabel Schnabel / Nicolas Véron / schwer vereinbaren, doch aus der Großen Koalition Beatrice Weder di Mauro / Jeromin Zettelmeyer, Reconciling kommen Signale des Entgegenkommens. Vor diesem Risk Sharing with Market Discipline: A Constructive Ap- proach to Euro Area Reform (= CEPR Policy Insight, Nr. 91), Coverabbildung: Eitel Sonnenschein? Euro-Skulptur London 2018 (online unter: https://cepr.org/sites/default/ vor der Europäischen Zentralbank in Frankfurt am Main files/policy_insights/PolicyInsight91.pdf – letzter Zugriff: (Quelle: Pixabay, CC0). 15.06.2018). 2-2018 | AKADEMIE-KURZANALYSE 2 men, um den Euro zu stabilisieren und deflationä- auf den Weg in einen »Euro-Schattenstaat« mit ren Entwicklungen entgegenzuwirken. Tatsächlich Demokratiedefiziten, doch den Schritt zu einer hat sich die Lage stabilisiert, die Zinsaufschläge vollständig demokratisch legitimierten »Politischen (Spreads) zehnjähriger Staatsanleihen der einzelnen Union« möchte kaum ein Mitgliedsland gehen.3 Mitgliedsländer haben sich deutlich vermindert und Es ist auch wenig realistisch, die Eurozone in das Wirtschaftswachstum zieht seit 2017 an. Die einen Nord- und einen Süd-Euro aufzuspalten. Haushaltsdefizite gehen zurück und die Arbeitslo- Sollte ein externer oder interner Schock die Gegen- sigkeit sinkt in den Krisenländern. In Deutschland sätze in der Euro zone so stark verschärfen, dass boomt die Wirtschaft. der Grundkonsens der Gemeinschaft verlorengeht, Einerseits ist dies eine positive Bilanz, doch dann könnte allenfalls eine Rückabwicklung der werden andererseits bekannte Gefahren verdeckt: Währungsunion eintreten, ohne die EU und ins- Die Wirtschaftsentwicklung verläuft noch immer besondere den Binnenmarkt aufzulösen.4 In einem sehr ungleich, in einigen Ländern steigt dennoch solchen Fall müsste man zu nationalen Währungen, die Staatsverschuldung und der Bankensektor, vor die in einem System fester Wechselkurse (in einer allem in den EU-Südländern, ist überladen mit Bandbreite mit sporadischen Abwertungen) wie im faulen Krediten. Die hohen Target-Salden (siehe Europäischen Währungssystem (EWS) miteinander unten) und die sich aufblähende Bilanz der EZB verbunden wären, zurückkehren. lassen unvermindert die Frage nach der Nach- Dies hätte weitreichende Konsequenzen, denn haltigkeit dieser Währungsunion aufkommen. Die die Kapitalmärkte würden sich fragmentieren, da geringen Spreads der zehnjährigen Staatsanleihen zwangsläufig zumindest kurzfristig Kapitalver- einzelner Eurostaaten spiegeln nicht die wirklichen kehrskontrollen notwendig wären. Die Gefahr eines Länderrisiken in der Währungsunion wider und völligen Zerfalls der EU bestände. Auf Deutsch- sind nur durch das implizite Rettungsversprechen land kämen hohe politische Kosten zu, aber auch von Mario Draghi (»whatever it takes«) zu erklären. wirtschaftlich würde viel auf den Spiel stehen, denn Hinzu kommen Verzerrungen der Wirtschaftsstruk- der Zugang zu den europäischen Auslandsmärkten tur und Blasenentwicklungen, ausgelöst durch die wäre erschwert beziehungsweise durch Wechsel- ultralockere Geldpolitik. Sie führt auch dazu, dass kursschwankungen unkalkulierbarer. Zudem müsste nicht überlebensfähige Unternehmen künstlich am Deutschland die hohen Haftungs risiken, unter ande- Leben gehalten werden. Gefahren könnten auch von rem die möglichen Fehlbeträge aus der Auflösung der politischen Krisen und externen Schocks entstehen. EZB und des Europäischen Stabilitäts mechanismus Als Beispiele sind vor allem der Handelsstreit mit (ESM) sowie an den Target-Salden, zumindest teil- den USA und die politische Instabilität in Italien weise als Verluste abschreiben. Auch aus deutscher zu nennen. Schließlich gibt es die »Unknown Un- Sicht keine gute Option. knowns«. Reformoptionen: Fiskalunion oder Entwicklungsszenarien für die »Maastricht 2.0« Währungsunion Die Debatte um die Zukunft der Währungsunion Die Gründung der »Vereinigten Staaten von Europa« ist von zwei konträren Grundpositionen geprägt: mit eigenem Bundesbudget, voller Gemeinschafts- Im Kern geht es um den grundlegenden Streit zwi- haftung, umfänglicher Transferunion und zentraler schen jenen, die den Weg zu einer Fiskalunion mit Finanzkontrolle ist in überschaubarer Zeit eine wirk- Gemeinschaftshaftung gehen wollen, und jenen, die lichkeitsfremde Option, obwohl die Gründungsvä- eine Stärkung des ursprünglichen und nunmehr stark ter der Währungsunion die »Politische Union« – wie immer auch definiert – als Voraussetzung für ihr 3 Vgl. Helmut Kohl, Regierungserklärung von Bundeskanzler langfristiges Überleben angesehen haben.2 Zwar be- Helmut Kohl am 6. November 1991 (Deutscher Bundestag, findet sich die Eurozone schon seit etlicher Zeit mit Plenarprotokoll 12/53). all den Rettungs- und Überwachungsinstitutionen 4 Vgl. den Vortrag von Clemens Fuest »Die Zukunft der Euro- zone: Ein ›Deal‹ zwischen Frankreich und Deutschland?« bei den Münchner Seminaren am 4. Dezember 2017 (online unter: 2 Vgl. Thomas Mayer, Die Ökonomen im Elfenbeinturm. https://mediathek.cesifo-group.de/player/macros/cesifo/ Eine österreichische Antwort auf die Finanz- und Eurokrise, mediathek?content=7179012&idx=2&category=2684289027 Tübin gen 2014, S. 73. – letzter Zugriff: 15.06.2018). 2-2018 | AKADEMIE-KURZANALYSE 3 Abbildung 1: »Within our mandate, the ECB is ready to do whatever it takes to preserve the euro. And believe me, it will be enough.« Mario Draghi, hier beim Weltwirtschaftsforum 2013 in Davos, versprach am 26. Juli 2012 in seinem legendären Statement vor einer Investorengruppe in London die bedingungslose Verteidigung der Gemeinschafts- währung (Quelle: World Economic Forum, Wikimedia Commons, CC-BY-SA-2.0). aufgeweichten No-Bail-Out-Prinzips (das heißt ein Haftung« das Grundübel, das Reformen und eine Maastricht 2.0) anstreben. Der ersten Fraktion geht es übermäßige Staatsverschuldung
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