Transformative change in contemporary
Australian agriculture

Katrina Sinclair

B Sc Agr (Sydney) M Rur Sc (UNE)

A thesis submitted to Charles Sturt University for the degree of Doctor of
Philosophy

School of Environmental Sciences
Faculty of Science
October 2014

TABLE OF CONTENTS

LIST OF FIGURES....................................................................................................................v LIST OF TABLES.....................................................................................................................vi LIST OF BOXES ..................................................................................................................... vii LIST OF ACRONYMS............................................................................................................ viii GLOSSARY .............................................................................................................................ix Certificate of Authorship............................................................................................................x Acknowledgements..................................................................................................................xi PUBLICATIONS ARISING FROM THIS RESEARCH............................................................ xii ABSTRACT ............................................................................................................................ xiii Chapter One Introduction..........................................................................................................1
1.1 Contemporary developed agriculture .............................................................................1 1.2 Transformation................................................................................................................2 1.3 Social-ecological systems...............................................................................................3 1.4 Resilience thinking and transition theory........................................................................4 1.5 My contribution: a focus on the processes and outcomes of transformative change for contemporary developed agriculture...............................................................................6

1.6 Research aims................................................................................................................8 1.7 Research process...........................................................................................................8 1.8 Case study methodology ................................................................................................9 1.9 Thesis structure ............................................................................................................11
Chapter Two Transformative change in contemporary developed agriculture.......................13
2.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................13 2.2 Agricultural production in contemporary Australia........................................................13 2.3 Complex adaptive systems, social-ecological systems and transformations...............20
2.3.1 Complex adaptive systems ...................................................................................21 2.3.2 Social-ecological systems .....................................................................................22 2.3.3 Transformation ......................................................................................................24

2.4 Sustainability as a tool to assess transformative change.............................................26 2.5 Resilience thinking........................................................................................................30
2.5.1 Resilience thinking and transformation .................................................................41

2.6 Transition theory...........................................................................................................43 2.7 Conclusion ....................................................................................................................50
Chapter Three Methodology ...................................................................................................55
3.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................55 3.2 Qualitative research characteristics..............................................................................56 3.3 Research approach ......................................................................................................58
3.3.1 Epistemological stance: constructivism.................................................................58 3.3.2 Theoretical perspective: interpretivism..................................................................59 3.3.3 Constructivist-interpretive position ........................................................................59

3.4 Research design: case study........................................................................................61

i

3.5 The use of social theory................................................................................................63
3.5.1 Resilience thinking ................................................................................................63 3.5.2 Transition theory....................................................................................................64

3.6 Research method: in-depth interviews .........................................................................65 3.7 Data collection ..............................................................................................................67
3.7.1 Personal experience with the dairy industry..........................................................67 3.7.2 Sampling technique...............................................................................................68 3.7.3 Interview process ..................................................................................................70

3.8 Data analysis and interpretation ...................................................................................74
3.8.1 Initial processing of the raw data...........................................................................75 3.8.2 Analysis and interpretation....................................................................................76

3.9 Methodological issues: validity and reliability ...............................................................79 3.10 Ethical considerations.................................................................................................82
Chapter Four Background to case study ................................................................................85
4.1 Introduction ...................................................................................................................85 4.2 Australian dairy policy: from paternalism to neoliberalism ...........................................85 4.3 Australian dairy industry ...............................................................................................93 4.4 Subtropical dairy industry .............................................................................................97 4.5 Murray dairy industry ..................................................................................................102
Chapter Five Results: did deregulation transform the dairy industry?..................................107
5.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................107 5.2 Subtropical dairy industry ...........................................................................................109
5.2.1 Conservation phase: the Subtropical dairy industry prior to deregulation ..........109
5.2.1.1 Dairy producers and dairy production system .............................................110 5.2.1.2 Milk processing sector .................................................................................111 5.2.1.3 Dairy industry organisation ..........................................................................111 5.2.1.4 Dairy service provision.................................................................................111 5.2.1.5 The shock: change in Australian agricultural policy.....................................112
5.2.2 Preparing for the collapse phase: preparations for deregulation ........................112
5.2.2.1 Dairy producers and dairy production system .............................................113 5.2.2.2 Milk processing sector .................................................................................115 5.2.2.3 Dairy industry organisation ..........................................................................115
5.2.3 Collapse phase: the Subtropical dairy industry early post-deregulation .............116
5.2.3.1 Dairy producers and dairy production system .............................................117 5.2.3.2 Milk processing sector .................................................................................122 5.2.3.3 Dairy industry organisation ..........................................................................125 5.2.3.4 Dairy service provision.................................................................................126
5.2.4 Re-organisation phase: the Subtropical dairy industry a decade after deregulation..................................................................................................................127
5.2.4.1 The fresh milk supply chain .........................................................................128 5.2.4.2 Dairy producers and dairy production system .............................................129 5.2.4.3 Milk processing sector .................................................................................131 5.2.4.4 Dairy industry organisation ..........................................................................132 5.2.4.5 Dairy service provision.................................................................................134

5.3 The Murray dairy industry...........................................................................................135
5.3.1 Conservation phase: the industry prior to deregulation ......................................135
5.3.1.1 Dairy producers and dairy production system .............................................136 5.3.1.2 Milk processing sector .................................................................................138 5.3.1.3 Dairy industry organisation ..........................................................................139 5.3.1.4 Service provision..........................................................................................139 5.3.1.5 Drive for a deregulated market system........................................................141
5.3.2 Preparing for the collapse phase: preparations for deregulation ........................141 5.3.3 Collapse phase: the Murray dairy industry early post deregulation ....................143

ii

5.3.3.1 Dairy producers and dairy production system .............................................143 5.3.3.2 Milk processing sector .................................................................................144

5.3.3.3 Dairy industry organisation ..........................................................................145 5.3.3.4 Dairy service provision.................................................................................145
5.3.4 Re-organisation phase: the Murray dairy industry a decade after deregulation .145
5.3.4.1 Dairy producers and dairy production system .............................................146 5.3.4.2 Milk processing sector .................................................................................151 5.3.4.3 Dairy industry organisation ..........................................................................154 5.3.4.4 Service provision..........................................................................................154

5.4 Conclusions ................................................................................................................157
5.4.1 Changes in structure, practice and culture..........................................................157 5.4.2 Transformative change in an agricultural industry ..............................................160 5.4.3 A sustainable future for the Subtropical dairy industry?......................................163

Chapter Six Efficacy of transition theory and resilience thinking for analysing deliberate transformative change...........................................................................................................166

6.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................166 6.2 Transition theory.........................................................................................................167 6.3 To what degree do transition concepts describe, explain and provide insights into the nature and extent of the changes that followed deregulation in the Subtropical and Murray dairy industries? ...................................................................................................168
6.3.1 Multi-pattern concept...........................................................................................168 6.3.2 The multi-level concept .......................................................................................170 6.3.3 The multi-phase concept.....................................................................................171 6.3.4 Changes in structure, management practices and culture..................................172

6.4 Resilience thinking......................................................................................................175 6.5 To what degree do resilience thinking concepts describe, explain and provide insights into the nature and extent of the changes that followed deregulation in the Subtropical and Murray dairy industries? .........................................................................177
6.5.1 The concept of nonlinearity, alternate regimes and thresholds ..........................177 6.5.2 The adaptive cycle ..............................................................................................180 6.5.3 The concepts of adaptability and transformability...............................................182 6.5.4 The concepts of specified and general resilience ...............................................184

6.6 How useful were the key concepts of transition theory and resilience thinking in analysing for transformative change in agriculture?.........................................................185
6.6.1 Key concepts from transition theory and resilience thinking...............................186 6.6.2 Potential limitations to transition theory and resilience thinking..........................189

6.7 Conclusions ................................................................................................................194
Chapter Seven Conclusion ...................................................................................................197
7.1 Introduction .................................................................................................................197 7.3 Summary of key findings ............................................................................................198 7.4 Contribution to knowledge ..........................................................................................208
7.4.1 Nature and impacts of deregulation on the Australian dairy industry .................209 7.4.2 Using the adaptive cycle to describe and interpret change ................................209 7.4.3 The relative merits of Transition theory and Resilience thinking.........................209 7.4.4 Distinguishing transformative change from adaptation .......................................210 7.4.5 Response to concerns about Transition theory and Resilience thinking ............211

7.5 Reflections on the method chosen .............................................................................212 7.6 Implications for the design of effective policy.............................................................216 7.8 Implications for practice..............................................................................................217 7.9 Future research needs................................................................................................218

iii

References............................................................................................................................221 Appendix 1 ............................................................................................................................235 Appendix 2 ............................................................................................................................237 Appendix 3 ............................................................................................................................239 Appendix 4 ............................................................................................................................241 Appendix 5 ............................................................................................................................242 Appendix 6 ............................................................................................................................245

iv

LIST OF FIGURES

Figure 2.1 Trend in annual mean temperature for NSW, south-east Queensland and northern Victoria from 1970 -2012 (°C/10 years) (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/ cited 22 October 2013)............................15 Figure 2.2 Trend in annual rainfall for NSW, south-east Queensland and northern Victoria from 1970 -2012 (mm/10 years) (http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/change/ cited 22 October 2013) ...........................................................................................16 Figure 2.3 The adaptive cycle adapted from Gunderson and Holling (2002, p. 34) 33 Figure 2.4 Panarchy: adaptive cycles across scales with revolt and remember connections adapted from Berkes et al. (2003, p. 18).............................................34 Figure 2.5 The resilience assessment framework adapted from the Resilience Alliance (2010)........................................................................................................38 Figure 2.6 Activity clusters in the transition management cycle adapted from van der Brugge and van Raak (2007)............................................................................44 Figure 2.7 The multi-level concept adapted from Geels (2002). .............................46 Figure 2.8 The multi-phase concept adapted from Rotmans et al. (2001) ..............47 Figure 4.1 Location of Subtropical dairy industry in Australia, indicating the case study area of northern New South Wales-southeast Queensland ...........................98 Figure 4.2 Long-term mean maximum monthly and mean minimum monthly temperatures (°C) for Casino (28.85°S, 153.05°E) lo cated near Lismore in northern NSW.......................................................................................................................99 Figure 4.3 Long-term median monthly rainfall (mm) for Casino (28.85°S, 153.05°E) located near Lismore in northern NSW ...................................................................99 Figure 4.4 Location of Murray dairy industry in Australia, indicating the location of the case study area in northern Victoria................................................................102 Figure 4.5 Long-term mean maximum and mean minimum monthly temperatures (°C) for Tatura (30.44°S, 145.27°E) located near Sh epparton in northern Victoria103 Figure 4.6 Long-term median monthly rainfall (mm) for Tatura (30.44°S, 145.27°E) located near Shepparton in northern Victoria........................................................103 Figure 5.1 Deregulation and the adaptive cycle adapted from Gunderson and Holling (2002) .......................................................................................................108

v

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1.1 Linking the stages of the research process to the key research questions9 Table 3.1 Characteristics of those interviewed for the Subtropical and Murray dairy industries case studies............................................................................................70

Table 3.2 Interview guide for dairy producers.........................................................71 Table 3.3 Interview guide for milk processor and government agents, and industry stakeholders ...........................................................................................................71

Table 4.1 Marketing and legislative history of the Australian dairy industry 1970- 2000 .......................................................................................................................87

Table 4.2 Long-term trends in the Australian dairy industry (Dairy Australia, 2011a)94 Table 4.3 Change in farm numbers and milk production for the states of Victoria, NSW and Queensland from 1999/00 to 2010/11 (Dairy Australia, 2012a)...............95

Table 4.4 Change in average herd size, milk production per cow and per farm for the states of Victoria, NSW and Queensland from1999/00 to 2010/11 (Dairy Australia, 2012a).....................................................................................................95

Table 5.1 Summary of the nature and extent of changes in structure, practice and culture for the Subtropical and Murray dairy industries in the decade that followed deregulation..........................................................................................................160

Table 5.2 Key changes in structure and practice of the Subtropical dairy industry following deregulation...........................................................................................161

Table 5.3 Key changes in cultural aspects of the Subtropical dairy industry following deregulation..........................................................................................................162

Table 5.4 Sustainability assessment of outcomes in the Subtropical dairy industry following deregulation adapted from Gibson et al. (2005, pp. 237-238).................164

vi

LIST OF BOXES

Box 2.1 Eight “ideal” principles underpinning requirements for sustainability adapted from (Gibson, et al., 2005, pp. 235-236) .................................................................29