DISSERTATION Titel der Dissertation Evolution of Population and Education in Pakistan: Analysis and Projections by Provinces Verfasser Muhammad Asif Wazir angestrebter akademischer Grad Doktor der Sozial- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften (Dr. rer. soc. oec.) Wien, 2012 Studienkennzahl lt. Studienblatt: A 084 136 Dissertationsgebiet lt. Studienblatt: Doktorat der Sozial- und Wirtschaftswissenschaften Statistik Betreuerin / Betreuer: Univ. Prof. Dr. Wolfgang Lutz Contents Acknowledgments iv Abstract vi Summary vii 1 Introduction 10 1.1 Background and Motivation . 10 1.2 Objectives . 13 1.3 Structure of the Report . 15 I Evolution of Population 17 2 Population Dynamics of Pakistan at Sub-national Level: Past and Present 18 2.1 Introduction . 19 2.1.1 Administrative division in Pakistan . 19 2.2 Pakistan Population–Past and Present . 20 2.2.1 Sustained Population growth since independence . 21 2.3 Diverse demographic transition . 22 2.3.1 Socio-economic Inequalities between Provinces . 24 2.3.2 Evolution of Age and sex population composition . 27 2.3.3 Urbanization and urban population growth . 32 2.4 Ethnic and religious Population composition in Pakistan . 34 2.5 Fertility transition in Pakistan at regional level . 36 2.5.1 Tantalizing Fertility decline . 36 2.5.2 Age specific fertility rate . 38 2.5.3 Total fertility rate by background characteristics in Pakistan . 40 2.5.4 Proximate Determinants of fertility . 42 2.5.4.1 Marriage . 42 2.5.4.2 Contraception . 43 2.5.4.3 Fertility preference . 48 i 2.6 Mortality . 50 2.6.1 Life expectancy at birth . 50 2.6.2 Infant Mortality Rate . 53 2.7 Migration . 55 2.7.1 International migration . 55 2.7.2 Internal migration . 55 2.8 History of Population Policies in Pakistan . 58 2.9 Conclusion and Discussion . 62 3 Probabilistic Population Projections for the Provinces of Pakistan 65 3.1 Introduction . 66 3.2 Methodology . 68 3.2.1 Jump-off Population . 69 3.2.2 Fertility . 70 3.2.3 Mortality . 73 3.2.4 Migration . 73 3.2.4.1 International migration . 73 3.2.4.2 Internal migration . 73 3.3 Results and Discussion . 75 3.3.1 Total Population . 75 3.3.2 Population Momentum’s . 78 3.3.3 Age and Sex Population distribution . 79 3.4 Conclusion . 84 II Evolution of Education 85 4 Educational Attainment and Literacy in Pakistan 86 4.1 Introduction . 87 4.2 Educational development in Pakistan: Past and Present . 89 4.2.1 Policy Development Regarding Education in Pakistan . 89 4.2.2 Historical development in Literacy . 90 4.2.3 Educational Attainment . 92 4.2.4 Enrollment and Educational Expenditures . 97 4.3 Conclusion and Discussion . 100 5 Population projection by age, sex and level of education in Pakistan: 2010- 2060 102 5.1 Introduction . 103 5.2 Methodology . 104 5.2.1 Multistate Population Projection Methodology . 104 5.2.2 Jump-off population by age, sex and level of educational at- tainment . 105 5.3 The future path . 108 5.3.1 Fertility . 108 5.3.2 Education . 110 5.3.2.1 Constant Education Scenario . 112 ii 5.3.2.2 Trend Education Scenario . 112 5.3.2.3 National Goal Scenario . 113 5.3.3 Mortality and Migration . 113 5.4 Results and Discussion . 115 5.4.1 Meeting the education goals in Pakistan . 118 5.4.2 Influence of education on fertility . 119 5.5 Conclusion . 121 6 Population projection by age, sex and level of education by provinces of Pakistan: 2010-2060 122 6.1 Introduction . 123 6.2 The Future Path . 123 6.2.1 Fertility . 123 6.2.2 Mortality . 124 6.2.3 International and internal migration . 125 6.2.4 Education . 125 6.3 Results and Discussion . 126 6.3.1 Does education make a difference to the total population size? 126 6.3.2 Age and Sex Population distribution by level of education . 126 6.3.3 The Window of Opportunities . 129 6.3.4 Meeting the Educational Goals . 130 6.4 Conclusion and Policy Prescription . 133 7 Conclusion and policy Implications 135 7.1 Conclusion and Discussion . 135 7.2 Policy Recommendations . 138 7.2.1 Education, Education and Education . 138 7.2.2 Effective Population Policies . 138 7.2.3 Recognize Spatial Dimension in Pakistan . 139 References 140 A Abstract (German Version) 151 iii Acknowledgments This study would have never been possible without the generous and invaluable sup- port I received from Higher Education Commission, Pakistan and the International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA) , Austria. I would like to thank the above mentioned institutions. First, I would like to thank Wolfgang Lutz for super- vision, motivation and help in overcoming numerous scientific challenges. I am also heavily indebted to Anne V. Goujon at the Vienna Institute of Demography for her guidance in research through discussions and seminars, she gave me important insight and new ideas, which helped me improve the quality of my work. I express my sincere appreciation to Samir KC for his encouragement, and for the many constructive dis- cussions we had on issue related to human capital, modeling of demographic compo- nent (fertility, mortality and migration) and particularly, for introducing the statistical programming in Demography (R-Statistical Language and Excel-VBA). I would like to acknowledge Warren Sanderson and Serguei Scherbov for providing invaluable help and advice on the probabilistic population projections. I would like to thank Erich Streissnig, Samir KC, Daniela Weber, Muhammad Faisal and Patrick Mair for constructive discussions we had on issues related to R-programming and answering my silly questions. I am very grateful to “The International Institute for Applied System Analysis (IIASA)” and Vienna Institute of Demography for hosting me. The first-class research environ- ment, support and inspiration from highly qualified and dedicated researchers at both institutes and opportunities to participate in seminars helped me substantially. I would also like to thank participants at the meetings, conferences and seminars where I presented my work and received constructive critique. This includes those organized by International Union for the Scientific Study of Population (IUSSP) in 2009, British Society for Population Studies in 2010, PRB Winter School in Policies and Reproduc- tive Behavior, Italy in 2010, European Science Foundation QMSS2 summer school in R in 2010 and Population Footprints—A UCL-Leverhulme Trust Population Foot- prints Symposium in 2011. I would like to thanks Anne Goujon for her thorough and excellent work on language editing, structure of the thesis and comments on this publication. I would also like to thanks Subramanian, Suchitra for her language editing of this publication and Heike Barakat and Bilal Barakat for German translation of the abstract of this publication. iv To Ammi, Abu and Jindjaan Abstract Each province in Pakistan has witnessed a significant population growth rate since the 1970s—ranging between 2 to 4 percent per annum. Rapid population growth in Pakistan hindered socio-economic development in the past, and Pakistan will have to adopt a development model capable of absorbing the future increase in population. The population growth is mostly due to the extended time lag between the mortality decline and the fertility decline. Following the demographic transition theory, the birth rates were expected to fall in the 1970s as a response to the decline in death rates. However, due to political instability, low levels of socio-economic development and ineffective population policies, the targets for reducing fertility were not accomplished even until recently. The main objective of our research is to study the level and trends of population and education retrospectively and prospectively for each province in Pakistan. The projection results show that the population of Pakistan (at national and provinces level) will be growing significantly in the next five decades. The substantial growth of the population of Pakistan at national and provinces level in the future is due to the “population momentum”. In 2010, approximately half of population growth in Pakistan is due to population momentum. This would lead to further increase in the working-age population. As population growth is beginning to level off, as part of the demographic transition, Pakistan, including all provinces, will experience a demographic window of opportunities. For the next 30 to 40 years, the majority of its population will be of working age. Our Projections result reveals that Pakistan will not be able to attain the Millennium development goals (MDGs) regarding education in 2015 and not even in 2060, if it does not increase primary enrollment at a rate significantly higher than in the recent past. vi Summary Each province in Pakistan has witnessed a significant population growth rate since the 1970s—ranging between 2 to 4 percent per annum. Pakistan, at national and provinces level, is likely to experience further population growth in the near and distant future at least until 2050—more so than any other world countries except for some countries in sub-Saharan African. Rapid population growth in Pakistan hindered socio-economic development in the past, and Pakistan will have to adopt a development model ca- pable of absorbing the future increase in population. If the country fails, it will be confronted with several major risks ranging from political instability to having large segments of the population trapped into poverty. The population growth is mostly due to the extended time lag between the mortal- ity decline and the fertility decline. Following the demographic transition theory, the birth rates were expected to fall in the 1970s as a response to the decline in death rates. However, due to political instability, low levels of socio-economic develop- ment and ineffective population policies, the targets for reducing fertility were not accomplished, even until recently.