fst journal The Journal of the Foundation for Science and Technology (formerly Technology, Innovation and Society)

Volume 19, Number 4, March 2007

Universities Lord Rees: Promoting excellence in teaching and research Professor David Eastwood: The university in contemporary society Nick Butler: Universities in the wider world Science education Professor Anne Glover: Are we losing the plot? Professor John Holman: The purposes of science education Bob Kibble: Science teaching in Scotland The Stern Review Sir Nicholas Stern: The economics of climate change James Smith: The challenge to the energy sector Andrew Harrison: Tackling aviation emissions Sir Partha Dasgupta: Accounting for well-being Evidence-based policy making Phil Willis: Scientific advice and policy making Professor Paul Wiles: The civil service and scientific advice John Gummer: Science, truth and politics Obituary Sir Gareth Roberts

THE FOUNDATION FOR SCIENCE AND fst TECHNOLOGY THE FOUNDATION The Foundation for Science and Technology FOR SCIENCE AND 10 Carlton House Terrace TECHNOLOGY London fst SW1Y 5AH Telephone 020 7321 2220 THE FOUNDATION FOR SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY Registered Charity No: 274727. A Company Limited by Guarantee No: 1327814 Fax 020 7321 2221 PRESIDENT The Rt Hon the Lord Jenkin of Roding e-mail [email protected] VICE PRESIDENTS The Earl of Shannon Editor The Lord Flowers FRS Sir John Maddox FRS Sir Brian Jenkins GBE Sub-editors COUNCIL Wendy Barnaby, Judy McBride, CHAIRMAN Simon Napper, Charles Wenz The Earl of Selborne KBE FRS Production & Layout James McQuat The President of the Royal Society The Lord Rees of Ludlow PRS The President, The Royal Academy of Engineering The Lord Browne of Madingley FREng FRS The President, The Academy of Medical Sciences Professor John Bell PMedSci www.foundation.org.uk The President, The Science Council Sir Tom McKillop FRS FRSE FMedSci Chairman, The Engineering and Technology Board Dr Michael Howse OBE FREng (acting) Chairman, The Arts and Humanities Research Council Professor Sir Brian Follett FRS Chairman, The Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council Dr Peter Ringrose Chairman, The Council for the Central Laboratory of the Research Councils Professor Sir Graeme Davies FRSE FREng Chairman, The Economic and Social Research Council Ms Frances Cairncross CBE FRSE Chairman, The Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council Professor Dame Julia Higgins DBE FRS FREng Chairman, The Medical Research Council Sir John Chisholm FREng CEng FIEE Chairman, The Natural Environment Research Council Mr Edmund Wallis FREng Chairman, The Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council Mr Peter Warry FREng

Sir Michael Atiyah OM FRS PRSE Professor Polina Bayvel FREng The Lord Broers FRS FREng Sir Geoffrey Chipperfield KCB The Lord Haskel Dr Geraldine Kenney-Wallace FRSC Sir John Krebs FRS Sir Hugh Laddie The Baroness O'Neill of Bengarve CBE PBA The Lord May of Oxford OM AC Kt FRS FMedSci The Lord Oxburgh KBE FRS The Lord Soulsby of Swaffham Prior FMedSci Professor Sir William Stewart FRS FRSE The Lord Sutherland of Houndwood KT FBA FRSE Dr Mark Walport FMedSci The Baroness Wilcox Sir Peter Williams CBE FRS FREng

Dr Robert Hawley CBE DSc FRSE FREng (Deputy Chairman) Mr Patrick McHugh (Honorary Secretary) Mr Tony Quigley (Honorary Treasurer)

DIRECTOR Dr Dougal Goodman FREng

Neither the Foundation nor the Editor is responsible for the opinions of contributors to FST journal. © 2007 The Foundation for Science and Technology. ISSN 1475-1704 fst journal Volume 19, Number 4, March 2007 c o n t e n t s

THE COUNCIL OF THE FOUNDATION...... inside front cover fst UPDATE journal The Journal of the Foundation for Science and Technology Climate change, intellectual property rights, research budgets, science in (formerly Technology, Innovation and Society) Volume 19, Number 4, March 2007 Government, nuclear power...... 2 Universities Lord Rees: Promoting excellence in teaching and research Professor David Eastwood: The university in contemporary society universities Nick Butler: Universities in the wider world Science education Professor Anne Glover: Are we losing the plot? Promoting excellence in teaching and research Professor John Holman: The purposes of science education Bob Kibble: Science teaching in Scotland The Stern Review Lord Rees of Ludlow...... 3 Sir Nicholas Stern: The economics of climate change James Smith: The challenge to the energy sector Andrew Harrison: Tackling aviation emissions Sir Partha Dasgupta: Accounting for well-being The university in contemporary society: lessons from history Evidence-based policy making Phil Willis: Scientific advice and policy making Professor Paul Wiles: The civil service and scientific advice Professor David Eastwood ...... 5 John Gummer: Science, truth and politics Obituary Sir Gareth Roberts Universities in the wider world

THE FOUNDATION Nick Butler ...... 7 FOR SCIENCE AND fst TECHNOLOGY science education Science education – are we losing the plot? Professor Anne Glover...... 8 The purposes of science education Professor John Holman...... 9 Science teaching in Scotland Bob Kibble...... 10 the stern review The economics of climate change Sir Nicholas Stern...... 11 The challenge to the energy sector James Smith ...... 15 Tackling aviation emissions Andrew Harrison ...... 15 Accounting for well-being Sir Partha Dasgupta...... 16 evidence-based policy making Science advice and policy making Phil Willis...... 18 The civil service and scientific advice Professor Paul Wiles ...... 20 Science, truth and politics John Gummer...... 21

OBITUARY Sir Gareth Roberts...... 23

COMMENT A question of identity Archimedes ...... 24

EVENTS...... 24 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) update

EU commits to 20 per cent cuts in emissions of the pressures on other DTI budgets; nevertheless, they say they are disappointed that any shortfalls have been made at the The Council of European Union environment ministers, meeting expense of investments in research. Research Councils fund in Brussels on 20 February, agreed to commit the EU to a reduc- projects over many years and large proportions of the budgets tion of at least 20 per cent (on 1990 levels) of greenhouse gas are committed several years in advance. emissions by 2020. This is described by the Council as a “firm, The EYF reductions for each Council are: independent commitment”. • Arts and Humanities Research Council – £5.3 million; However, the EU is willing, says the Council, “to commit to • Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council a reduction of 30% of greenhouse gas emissions by 2020 com- – £6.7 million; pared to 1990 as its contribution to a global and comprehensive • Council for the Central Laboratory of the Research Councils agreement for the period beyond 2012, provided that other – £0.5 million; developed countries commit themselves to comparable emission • Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council – £29.0 reductions and economically more advanced developing coun- million; tries adequately contribute according to their responsibilities and • Economic and Social Research Council – £3.0 million; respective capabilities.” • Medical Research Council – £10.7 million; Natural Environment Research Council – £9.7 million; Several member states – including Poland, Hungary and • Particle Physics and Astronomy Research Council – £3.1 million. ❐ Finland – were reported to have opposed aspects of the decision. • The EU has agreed to a burden-sharing arrangement to try to www.rcuk.ac.uk reach the emissions cuts required under the Kyoto Treaty but many countries are struggling to achieve their targets. ❐ Science in the service of Government www.consilium.europa.eu/ueDocs/cms_Data/docs/pressData/ en/envir/92864.pdf To determine how effectively Government departments are using science in planning and policy-making, the Government’s Call to strengthen intellectual property Chief Scientific Adviser, Sir David King, has set up a rolling programme of reviews. The third of these – into the Health & rights Safety Executive (HSE) – was published on 21 February. The final report of the Gowers Review on intellectual property To formulate a view on the quality and use of science in HSE, (IP) was published on 6 December 2006. While the Review con- the review focused on 10 success criteria that underpin good cludes that the UK has a “fundamentally strong IP system” it sets practice in the use of science by Government departments, to out a number of reforms. identify both areas of good practice, especially those that could In order to provide support for businesses using IP, the be adopted elsewhere, as well as areas for improvement. review recommends that: According to Sir David King, “Every Government depart- • the UK Patent Office be restructured as the UK Intellectual ment needs to draw on the highest quality science and research Property Office, with recommendations for it to provide greater as part of the policy-formulation process. Policy solutions which support and advice for businesses using IP domestically; are based on no science or bad science can be costly, both in • business representatives sit on a new independent Strategic terms of resources and reputation. Through reviewing each Advisory Board on IP Policy, advising the Government; Government department’s use of science we can improve the • the Government improve support and advice internationally way science is managed, understood and drawn-on as the basis – including in India and China - to enable UK businesses to for better policy making.” protect their investment around the world. The first Science Review, of the Department for Culture, To ensure the correct balance in IP rights the review recommends: Media and Sport (DCMS), was published in October 2004. The • ensuring the IP system only proscribes genuinely illegitimate review of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural activity. It recommends introducing a strictly limited 'private Affairs (Defra) was published in December 2006 and the review copying' exception to enable consumers to format-shift con- of the Department for Communities and Local Government tent they purchase for personal use; (DCLG) is expected early in 2007. ❐ • enabling access to content for libraries and education estab- www.dti.gov.uk/science/science-in-govt/works/science- lishments – to ensure that the UK's cultural heritage can be reviews/review/hse/page24820.html adequately stored for preservation and accessed for learning. The Review recommends clarifying exceptions to copyright to make them fit for the digital age. Nuclear consultation conclusions quashed The Review was commissioned by the Chancellor of the The Government’s consultation on nuclear power, prior to the Exchequer in December 2005. The UK’s economic competitive- publication of a report in July 2006 favouring a new genera- ness is increasingly driven by knowledge-based industries, espe- tion of nuclear power stations, was in some aspects “not merely cially in manufacturing and science-based sectors as well as the inadequate but also misleading” according to the judgement of creative industries. ❐ a judicial review given on 15 February. Greenpeace had chal- www.hm-treasury.gov.uk/pre_budget_report/prebud_pbr06/ lenged the Government’s decision in favour of nuclear power press_notices/prebud_pbr06_pressgowers.cfm arguing that the consultation process had been flawed. Mr Justice Sullivan agreed, saying that “something has gone clearly Research budgets suffer from funding revisions and radically wrong”. Accordingly, he granted a quashing order. While Greenpeace argued that the Government would now The Spring Supplementary Estimates published by HM Treasury have to go “back to the drawing board”, the DTI issued a state- on 20 February show significant revisions to DTI budgets, ment saying: “This judgement is about the process of consul- including those of the Research Councils. The Councils’ end of tation, not the principle of nuclear power. We will of course year flexibility (EYF) has been reduced, on a one-off-basis, from consult further.” £196 million to £128 million, resulting in an effective reduction The Department added: “We will press on with publication of in their combined resources of £68 million in the current spend- the Energy White Paper and we are confident in the strength of ing review period. our arguments to engage in further consultation.” Research Council chief executives have been made aware The White Paper is due some time in March. ❐

 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) universities

The question of what purpose universities in the UK serve and how they should be structured and funded was considered at a meeting of the Foundation on 25 October 2006. Promoting excellence in teaching and research Martin Rees

or centuries, the aim of universities in straight ‘biology’ has not. The subject was a vocational one – to prepare stu- with the largest number of students in the Fdents for positions within the church, biological sciences category is psychology. law and medicine. During the 1850s John The story is the same with the physical sci- Henry Newman published his Idea of a ences: the proportion of degrees granted University, a manifesto for disseminating in chemistry has fallen from 29 per cent to knowledge for its own sake. The first real 21 per cent since 1992, while forensic and Lord Rees of Ludlow PRS is President ‘research university’, with the overt aim of archaeological sciences now represent 8 per of the Royal Society, Master of seeking new knowledge, was Humboldt cent of degrees, compared with 2 per cent Trinity College, and Professor University of Berlin, founded in 1810 by in 1992. It is worth noting, too, that medi- of Cosmology and Astrophysics Wilhelm von Humboldt. Newman, how- cine, dentistry and veterinary sciences hive at the University of Cambridge. ever, disagreed with Humboldt’s concept, off many of the best A-level chemists. He is also a Visiting Professor at believing that: “To discover and to teach The data also highlight the growing Leicester University and Imperial are distinct functions; they are also distinct mismatch between what university entrants College London. He was appointed gifts, and are not commonly found united have learned at secondary school and the Astronomer Royal in 1995, and was in the same person.” prior knowledge required by university nominated to the House of Lords in These issues are still debated today. departments if they are to attain degree 2005 as a cross-bench peer. Although the ‘research university’ model standard within three years. The lack of tends to prevail, at least as an aspiration, adequate fluency in basic mathematics is the world’s universities now span the especially troubling. entire spectrum from pure teaching to There is one important postscript, pure research. The sector has expanded however. The most recent figures show a immensely, with unprecedented rises in rise in applications to study physics, chem- participation levels and in costs. The istry and mathematics – ‘green shoots’, contribution made to society by universi- one hopes, signalling that the educational ties has never been greater. So the ques- initiatives of recent years are beginning to tion, ‘What are universities for?’ has an yield results. even wider resonance today than it did in The remainder of my comments are Newman’s time. personal views and do not necessarily rep- The Royal Society is undertaking an resent those of the Royal Society. There is ambitious study to determine whether UK another set of data that receives much pub- higher education will be fit for purpose in lic attention – the international rankings of 2015. It will be conducted over the course universities compiled by the Times Higher of a year and will look at: the implications Education Supplement, Shanghai Jaio Tong of changes in student numbers, including University and other bodies. Cynicism is greater numbers of mature students; the in order about the precision of these league revisions to the curriculum for 14-19 year- tables and the criteria upon which they are olds; the issue of general versus specialised based. However, there is one gratifying fea- degrees; the significance of the Bologna ture shared by all the league tables: outside process (a European reform initiative the US, only the UK has several universities aimed at establishing a European Higher in the ‘first division’. Education Area by 2010); the impact of We are fortunate to have adopted the international movements of both students ‘research university’ model and we should and professional scientists; and the needs cherish it. Most of the UK’s best research of employers and the wider economy. teams work within universities, where the A pilot study, ‘A degree of concern: UK researchers are kept in touch with students first degrees in science, technology and and the atmosphere is more conducive to mathematics’, has already been carried cross-disciplinary dialogue than in free- out. Its aim was to identify trends in the standing laboratories. We owe our advan- popularity of different subjects – not as tage over mainland Europe to a funding straightforward an exercise as it may seem. system that is both more diverse and more For example, while the number of gradu- selective. Some income comes from stu- ates per year in ‘biological sciences’ has dent fees but there are also several public risen, the number graduating with degrees funding streams and substantial non-gov- fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4)  universities

ernmental channels for research support, Let me give an example. Leicester one deterrent is the increasingly perva- especially in biomedical fields (such as the University, where I am a visiting professor, sive ‘audit culture’, of which the RAE, the Wellcome Trust and cancer charities). is world-class in genetics and in space sci- Teaching Quality Assessment and others of One distinctive feature of our system ence. That was not planned. Outstanding that ilk are symptomatic. Some individuals is the way our higher education funding young lecturers in these two fields hap- will become academic scientists come what councils allocate funds for related research, pened to have jobs there 30 years ago, may – the ‘nerdy’ types (I am one myself) using the Research Assessment Exercise and had the enterprise to build a major – but academia cannot survive with only (RAE) to identify quality-related research. research group. The system that then these individuals. American colleagues are bemused by our prevailed allowed that to happen. It is Now that our overall enrolment is ris- ‘dual support’ system. I tell them that, for important that selectivity is not so harsh ing towards 50 per cent of 18-21 year olds, all its problems, it is better than the US that such opportunities are choked off in we must learn from the exceedingly broad system where professors need to compete less-favoured universities. and diverse university and college system for grants in order to meet even basic As we are all aware, in recent years there in the US. Their higher education sec- academic needs. If we want to retain this has been welcome growth in public fund- tor has developed organically, with liberal dual support while fostering research excel- ing of university research. High on the arts colleges, four-year junior colleges and lence within a diverse university system agenda of universities and research coun- numerous other types of institutions. largely dependent on public funds, then cils, especially in the months leading up to Our system is still in transition and there must be selectivity. Although it still the comprehensive spending review, are moving toward that type of diversity. We looms too large in university planning and efforts to show that good value for money must carry on debating issues such as the strategy and distorts the work patterns of has been obtained by quantifying, as far as graduate/undergraduate balance, local ver- individual academics, the RAE is a neces- is possible, the benefits that have accrued sus national catchment, part-time versus sary evil. from increases in funding. A report pub- full–time and e-learning versus traditional There are, however, a number of con- lished on behalf of Research Councils UK teaching. cerns. First, undue emphasis is placed attempted to address this issue, citing spe- In this context, I would like to ven- on academic publications compared with cific examples of research that has led to a ture an heretical opinion. I think there applied work. Second, little credit is given direct ‘spin-off’. is an undue focus on so-called ‘wastage’. for popular writing and outreach; con- However, direct ‘spin-offs’ are not the Universities are too defensive about drop- sequently, heads of science departments only benefits to be gained from univer- out rates. An American will say ‘I had discourage staff from such engagement sity research: a study by the Science and two years of college’, and will often rightly with the public, essential though it is if the Technology Policy Research Unit (SPRU) regard the experience as positive. It is country is to apply science wisely. Third, at the University of Sussex identified an surely better to take risks on admission, the system is not designed to reward an additional six channels of benefit. Its give students the chance and let some leave element that is surely part of a univer- authors argued that, taking all seven after two years with some ‘credits’ with- sity teacher’s remit: broad learning and together, university research offers incon- out necessarily being typecast as failures: scholarship. Some of us are old enough trovertible benefits to the economy and and without the universities feeling pres- to remember the classic Robbins Report, to society, but that there is “a danger that sured to see unwilling students through to which was published in 1963 and led to the a focus on the more easily measurable graduation. cluster of new universities in that decade. exploitation channels...may distort science As Baroness Blackstone has empha- Robbins said that university staff had three policy, to the detriment of longer-term sised, teaching quality in all universities duties: teaching, research and ‘reflective benefits.” is crucial, not only for the proper educa- enquiry’. Reflective enquiry is worthwhile ‘Research universities’ benefit society tion of our own students, but also for for its own sake, as well as for the way that partly through direct knowledge transfer those from overseas. The attraction of it enriches both teaching and research. from university laboratories to industry. our universities for these students, who If we endorse the need for selectiv- However, their indirect benefits, which are pay high fees, is an important competi- ity – the rationale for the RAE – we must more difficult to quantify, may be even tive advantage, but will disappear if they accept that there is no easy ‘fix’. On the more important. The dynamic knowledge decide they are not receiving value for one hand, simple procedures for assessing base within them is a crucial resource money. Our universities need sufficient excellence are crude and often inaccurate; for the nation. While we must optimise funding to compete successfully with on the other hand, highly refined dis- the transfer and exploitation of academic their counterparts in the US and the Far crimination would be burdensome. A fair research, we also need to be careful not East. Public spending on higher educa- picture of the research being undertaken to dilute or divert from the core mission, tion is comparable with that in the rest of in any institution cannot be achieved by which is to produce outstanding gradu- Europe at 1.1 per cent of gross domestic merely plugging numbers into a formula. ates. And we should surely proclaim loud- product (GDP), but contrasts starkly with We need a subject-based approach based ly, in the style of a latter-day Newman, that in the US – 2.5 per cent of GDP on peer review and supported by a more that learning is worthwhile for its own (and GDP per head is higher in the US), targeted set of indicators – a system with a sake. We are a better nation if we are an although much of that is private. In a ‘lighter touch’. educated nation. recent speech, Chris Patten highlighted We know that a few universities attract How well the students are taught these figures, saying: “It’s ironic that we the lion’s share of research funding from depends on the quality of the faculty. should be condescending about US cul- all sources. That is likely to be the case Traditionally, universities have attracted ture when that country spends twice as whatever system prevails. Despite this outstanding faculty by promising that, much on the acquisition of knowledge trend towards concentration, there is at in return for teaching, they can devote a and its transmission to students. It would least one top-rated department in more fraction of their time to curiosity-driven be tragic if research universities declined than 50 of our universities. It is crucial to research. It is increasingly difficult to in the countries where they originated at avoid formalising the ‘pecking order’ and recruit adequate talent into academia, a time of unparalleled prosperity.” It is to retain a system that allows excellence to which is a less alluring career than it used in our own interest to ensure that, on the sprout and bloom anywhere in the univer- to be. Aside from salaries, which are low contrary, we build on our strengths. We sity sector. compared with those offered in the City, can surely afford it. ❐

 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) universities The university in contemporary society: lessons from history David Eastwood

he peculiar history of English uni- by which I mean the governance of the versities tells us a lot about why we country and of the Empire, in order to Tare where we are today. Essentially, sustain the civic ambition that had devel- the English university system developed oped within the industrial cities during very late. Until the late 1820s, there were the late 19th century. One very important only two universities in England. Patterns characteristic of early 20th century univer- of development elsewhere were very sities was their reliance on public funding: Professor David Eastwood is Chief different. In Europe, by the end of the the University Grants Committee was Executive of the Higher Education 18th century there were 66 universities, established in 1919. Funding Council for England while the US had around 50 by the time This peculiar history is important (HEFCE). He was previously Vice- of the American Civil War in the 1860s. to our understanding of the present Chancellor of the University of East The early universities in pre-unification system, particularly the transformation Anglia, Chief Executive of the Arts Germany were founded partly as a means of England’s universities that began in and Humanities Research Board of strengthening its small states, while about 1960, when real expansion started. and held a chair in modern history those in the US were an offshoot of that Engagement of the universities with sci- at the University of Wales Swansea, country’s expansion during the 18th and ence, research and knowledge creation where he was also head of depart- 19th centuries. Although England devel- did not occur until after 1900. In a way ment, dean and pro-vice-chancellor. oped a scientific tradition, it flourished that is uncharacteristic of some sys- While at Swansea he co-founded the outside of the universities, rather than tems, England moved very quickly from National Centre for Public Policy. within them. Crucially, English universi- a system of elite education (up to and ties played no role in our industrial revo- including the early 1960s) to mass higher lution. education. The idea of the university began to The 1997 Dearing Committee of change in the 19th century. Lord Rees Inquiry defined the purposes of higher referred to Humboldt and the concept of education as follows: a research-led university – the German • to inspire and enable individuals to idea of a university, if you like. He also develop their capabilities throughout touched on Newman’s separation of life to contribute to society and achieve teaching and research. At the University personal fulfilment; of Oxford, this distinction was formal- • to increase knowledge and understand- ised: the college fellows taught while the ing for their own sake and to foster university professors engaged in research. their application to the benefit of the The tension between teaching and economy and society; research has long been problematic within • to serve the needs of an adaptable, sustainable, knowledge-based economy English higher education. at local, regional and national levels; England’s university system did not • to play a major role in shaping a demo- emerge until after the industrial revolu- cratic, civilised, inclusive society. tion. It began to grow as the big civic universities were established in the second I think this definition nicely captures the half of the 19th and the early 20th centu- essence of the transformed university sys- ries. As late as 1900, however, the English tem that emerged through the expansion university system was comparatively small of the 1960s, 70s and 80s. It highlights when measured in terms of the number of the emphasis on research, the transforma- institutions or the proportion of the pop- tion of individual lives and, very strongly, ulation who participated. Most universi- the economic and social functions of the ties saw their role as training for Empire, university. This definition would not have

‘Soft’ versus ‘hard’ sciences. ‘Softer’ discussion sciences such as psychology and sports science are not necessarily – as some claim – unsuitable university subjects. All university students, regardless of specialism, should be trained to use their minds to the best of their abilities and to engage in ‘reflective enquiry’. A nar- row focus on market demand and career prospects must not inhibit pursuit of the core aim of a university education – to produce outstanding individuals who can absorb knowledge and use it well, to the benefit of all.

fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4)  universities

to the country as whole. The new politi- The dangers of complacency. It is discussion cal economy of higher education, which risky to rely on high numbers of overseas seeks to balance public investment with an individual’s own investment in his or students paying large sums to help fund our universities. This will continue her higher education, is both sustainable only if the sector maintains its position as a leader in world-class research, and and defensible. The emphasis on widen- ensures that students benefit from that. UK higher education is in a fragile state ing access is about extending that kind of and inadequate or restrictive funding is likely to drive outstanding people away ‘graduateness’ to a greater proportion of the population. from the universities and into the City or abroad. Finally, and here I think most challeng- ingly, the sector is working hard on devel- oping relationships with industry, includ- had any resonance in the English system working in higher education were utterly ing the hard to reach small-to-medium of the 19th century. convinced that the funding of higher size enterprise (SME) sector. Consultancy The story of English universities since education was inadequate. There is no income has grown from £112 million in the 1960s is one of dramatic growth. In escaping the fact that we need the right 2000-01 to £211 million in 2003-04, and 1961, just 5 per cent of 18 and 19 year- level of investment if we are to compete. income from collaborative research rose olds entered university. By 2004, that This includes public investment through from £447 million to £541 million over figure had risen to 35 per cent, and 42 per the state, industry investment through the same period. By 2003-04, 90 per cent cent of the population aged between 18 employer engagement and, post 2006, stu- of UK higher education institutions had and 30 were in higher education in 2006. dents’ investment in their own education. established enquiry points for SMEs. This expansion transformed the university The system is also heavily depend- The relationship of HEFCE with the system, the cultural impact of universities, ent on international students who pay higher education sector reflects the matu- the people involved in them and wider a premium to study here. The higher rity and autonomy of universities, and a society. education sector is now worth some £45 great deal of discretion is given to univer- One of the key drivers of this expan- billion to the UK economy, while public sities in the matter of funding and local sion was the foundation of a number of investment in it is of the order of £15 bil- management. research-led, ‘entrepreneurial’ universi- lion. These are functions of the 1:5:12 HEFCE shares the concern about the ties. The prototype was the University rule: the UK has 1 per cent of the world’s dwindling number of students opting of Warwick, which began to look outside population, carries out 5 per cent of for STEM (science, technology, engineer- the state for alternative forms and sources world research and produces 12 per cent ing and mathematics) subjects and has of funding, actively sought to diversify of all cited papers. These indicators sug- recently launched four major initiatives in its activities and pro-actively engaged gest a system that is efficient and highly chemistry, physics, maths and engineer- with the local manufacturing base. The performing. ing in order to try to work with schools, entrepreneurial university is now very What should be the essential char- colleges and learned societies to drive up prevalent, with economic engagement one acteristics of English higher education? demand for these key disciplines. This is a of the leitmotifs of the past 20 years. This The view of HEFCE is that the ability to cultural and educational challenge, but we development has occurred hand-in-hand pursue ‘blue-skies’ research remains para- believe that we will see the ‘green shoots’ with the move towards mass higher edu- mount. In the absence of major private referred to by Lord Rees begin to emerge cation and novel forms of pedagogy such endowments, our dual-support system over the next three or four years. as new media for teaching and innovative is a way of creating the circumstances Our universities will remain critical approaches to student learning. in which fundamental research can be to our ability to operate in an increas- Despite all of these changes, we have undertaken. From that research base we ingly challenging global environment, retained some of the essential character- are continuing to improve our applied, or and the research carried out within them istics of the English university structure, translational, research. There have been will remain a key engine in the modern which I would describe as ‘autonomous interesting debates, not least in the con- economy. They are fundamental to the universities in a national system’. We text of the Research Assessment Exercise, maintenance of our liberal, democratic rightly value the autonomy of indi- about the way in which applied and culture. As history shows, their success vidual universities, and that is reflected translational research should be measured lies in their capacity to evolve and to in the way, for example, that the Higher and funded. Nevertheless, it seems to balance their traditional aims with the Education Funding Council for England me that these two activities – fundamen- needs of contemporary society. It could (HEFCE) funds universities. The major- tal research and applied research – are be said that universities were the most ity – 92 per cent – of our funding is in profoundly complementary and highly significant creation of the second millen- the form of block grants that allow uni- important. nium, and I think there is a strong argu- versities to decide how they will distrib- This is not to ignore the social and ment for saying that they will remain ute the funds. cultural value of university education, the most significant organisations in the The story of our universities is also both to the individuals receiving it and third. ❐ one of success. The quality and impact of the research done by English universities is profound. In addition, we have made Applying the research. There was some discussion enormous progress in increasing and wid- doubt expressed about the ability of the UK ening participation, while maintaining the economy to absorb the knowledge that universities were producing; much more quality of learning and teaching during a effort was needed to have well trained people in business who could commis- period of very substantial expansion. This has been achieved in spite of a sion and use the research universities provided. Some of those present poured diminishing proportionate investment scepticism on the idea of the European Institute of Technology. Autonomous in higher education and has been sus- and competing institutions would do better, they argued. tained through periods when those of us

 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) universities Universities in the wider world Nick Butler

niversities have fulfilled different business need to be open and transpar- roles historically. Today in the UK, ent and should work at different levels. Uuniversities serve four purposes. Local business across different regions First, they exist to advance knowledge can benefit just as much as big business through pure research – in all fields, not working internationally. European uni- just science. That knowledge is fact- versities are probably more integrated Nick Butler is Director of the newly based and universities bring a commit- into local communities and regions, and ment to ‘fact as the fundamental source in some cases business, than many in the created Cambridge Centre for Energy of policy’. That is very important. UK. Studies. He also chairs the Advisory In science, I believe that the impor- Third, universities exist as instru- Board of the Centre for European tance of knowledge means that research ments of social mobility and meritoc- Reform. He joined BP in 1977 after funding should be concentrated. The racy – in the best sense of that word. leaving Cambridge where he gradu- resources needed are considerable Universities are not just about research. ated with an honours degree in eco- – therefore there is value in doing some They are concerned with the develop- nomics. He has worked in a series work on a European scale. ment of individuals and of opportunity. of economics and policy posts in There is value in choosing areas of I would be the deputy assistant librarian BP since then, and served as Group focus. I also believe there is value in a in Blackpool public library if I had not Policy Adviser from 1995 to 2003 sensible research assessment exercise managed to get to Cambridge. and from 2003 to 2006 as Group which rewards the best but which also Universities need to be diverse. There Vice President for Strategy and Policy enables new and thriving departments is an illusion that all degrees are the same Development. to move up the league table. I see very and that all universities can be measured little value in a process which encourages on a single league table. That is a trend gaming. where universities have followed business There would be great value in encour- schools. aging multidisciplinary work because the I believe this is a false process of interplay across the sciences and even measurement. It is damaging to the with non-sciences such as economics morale and achievements of many can be very interesting and important. universities which are not world-lead- Climate change is a prime example of an ing centres of research but which do a issue on which such multidisciplinary tremendous job with a different focus. work is needed. There is room for the practical as well as Above all we should recognise that the academic: let a thousand universities this is now an international sector. bloom! Assets are mobile: academics, the best Fourth – and this may be too idealis- students and industrial research funds tic – I believe that universities have a role can all move geographically. That is a beyond the boundaries of a nation state. good thing but it means that pay and the Knowledge should know no boundaries. availability of funds matter. Universities Many of our problems (environment, are not immune from market forces. security) are international in scope. The A second element is the support of academy should be international in its universities in linking research to appli- search for knowledge and the application cation, which is usually a function of of that knowledge. business. Much progress has been made I believe universities are a very impor- in this area, but the link can still be a tant force in society and that we are matter of sensitivity. fortunate in this country to have a very The links between universities and strong base from which to build. ❐

Promoting diversity. The existing diver- discussion sity in UK higher education often seems to go unrecognised. Our institutions range from the research-intensive, highly selective Oxbridge type to those whose research work is targeted at local industries and who have far less demanding entry requirements. The majority, however, lie somewhere between these extremes. All have different roles and it is an error to rate an institution that is trying to fulfil one role as inferior to one trying to do another. A wide variety of courses, full-time or part-time and ranging from one to three years in length, are already on offer but are not being adequately publicised.

fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4)  science education

Have changes to the curriculum in England and in Scotland made the sciences any more attractive to students? A meeting of the Foundation at the Royal Society of Edinburgh examined the issue on 25 October 2006. Science education – are we losing the plot? Anne Glover

t university, I see first year under- for me in chemistry class was a demon- graduate students arriving and I am stration of how sodium interacts with Anot encouraged. My impression is moisture. Some sodium was brought into that today’s university entrants are less the class and we were shown how, if you well prepared for a university science expose it to moisture, there were violent course than they were, say, 25 years ago. reactions. I will always have an imprint of Professor Anne Glover FRSE is Chief That is the situation we need to remedy. the properties of sodium because I saw it Scientific Adviser for Scotland, and In Scotland we have the advantage of in real life. continues her work at the Institute of a broad curriculum: in general, you can The first year students I meet at uni- Medical Sciences at the University of study up to five subjects to higher level, versity are the products of science educa- Aberdeen. Her main research areas whereas in the rest of the UK, you narrow tion at secondary level. What disappoints are molecular microbial ecology, down to three main topics after GCSE. me is that I can give a 50-minute lecture microbial signalling and biosensor Our system compares well with the best, to 250 of them and I will be asked after- technology. The biosensors have including the French Baccalaureate which wards, “How much do I need to know of been applied to diagnose environ- has a number of core subjects – French, what you’ve just told me?” I answer that mental pollution and have been another modern language, history, math- they need to know all of it, that is why I commercialised by a university spin- ematics, physics and biology. The sciences spoke for 50 minutes. out company. are an important part of that package, That disappoints me because we are because every aspect of modern life is giving them all the information that they dependent upon science, engineering and need in order to then go off and explore. technology. They need to develop knowledge for We could consider making science a themselves. Instead, they are driven by the mandatory part of the core curriculum, idea that there is a fixed set of facts that but we should also consider why many they must know, and they are not looking people do not seem interested in science. beyond that. I am worried by this: is their When does natural curiosity and interest lack of intellectual curiosity a result of the in science start to wane? It seems to be secondary education system with its drive about the age of nine. To quote from a for continuous assessment? 2001 report: after that age they start per- It is easy to measure how many facts ceiving science as “authoritarian or dog- you know; it is not so easy to measure matic”. They also feel that science is “the understanding and application of knowl- learning of facts with little opportunity edge. We must strive towards the latter for reflection and discussion”. This is seen goal in order to develop a better educa- to be in marked contrast to English and tional system. history where they can discuss things in a Science subjects are still popular in more open environment. schools. We see students retaining their If that is truly the case, we must interest in science subjects and taking address the educational system and find them at higher level. We must ensure that out how to reverse that impression, mak- we can make science even more interest- ing people more open to the opportuni- ing for them, because the future of our ties that science can give them. In terms economy depends on us having properly of science in school, how do we educate trained scientists. people? Science is a practical subject. We The public should also be active in the cannot learn it by talking about it. Take debate on how we can achieve this. It is the periodic table: you can study it, learn impossible for us to make rational deci- all the elements and be able to draw it sions about stem-cell technology, nuclear and reproduce it, but would that tell you power, genetically modified crops, climate anything about what the periodic table change and so on if the public are not was for? Would it help you interpret the engaged in that discussion. We need to natural world, or understand the particu- interest the public more in science and lar properties of the individual elements? technology if society as a whole is to be I doubt it. equipped to make informed choices on One of the most memorable things technical matters in the future. ❐

 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) science education The purposes of science education John Holman

cience at GCSE level in English spend on revision and getting ready for schools has seen a steady improve- examinations, the less time you have for Sment in rates of attainment, with engaging and interesting practical work, the percentage attaining A to C grades or for your teacher to tell you about the going up steadily. At A level, it is a dif- excitement of science. So, a second con- ferent story. Entries are steady for biol- cern is that we are testing too much and ogy, declining (but with a small rise in this may be having a negative effect. Professor John Holman is Director recent years) for chemistry, and in steady Since the introduction of the of the National Science Learning decline for physics. Decreasing num- National Curriculum, we have had a Centre. The centre, funded by the bers are choosing to study sciences, with great deal of curriculum development. Wellcome Trust, opened in York on physics being particularly unpopular. A whole set of resources has been intro- 1 November 2005 and is dedicated Looking at the trends in science edu- duced but it is clear from all the studies to the professional development of cation in England in recent years, the that it is the teachers who make a big science teachers. In October 2006 ‘dual mandate’ stands out. The phrase, difference. The most recent survey on Professor Holman was seconded coined by Lord Jenkin, refers to the need the qualifications of maths and science half-time to the Department for to both educate the next generation of teachers in schools shows that we have a Education and Skills as National science specialists (necessarily a minor- serious problem in the supply of physi- Science, Technology, Engineering and ity of the population) and to equip other cal science teachers. Only 19 per cent Mathematics (STEM) Director. students with the basic scientific literacy of science teachers are physics special- necessary in the modern world. Getting ists; given that our pre-16 curriculum both these things right is the challenge is roughly a third physics, this means a lying behind some of the current science great deal of physics and chemistry is curriculum controversies. being taught by non-specialists. This new curriculum was introduced We have a new programme in prepa- in England in September 2006. Called ration which will give a diploma in the ‘Twenty First Century Science’, it is teaching of physical science to people intended to provide access to scien- who are not physics or chemistry gradu- tific literacy. It was developed at the ates; we will retrain (mainly biology) University of York in partnership with graduates for teaching physical sciences. the Nuffield Curriculum Centre in Some think that if we have students London, and has been piloted with 8,000 studying separate sciences, there would students. It is based on the idea that it is be more chance of them going on to not enough to know scientific facts and take A level. In most English schools theories, but that it is also necessary to the students study either one or two have an understanding of how scientists GCSEs combined across the three sub- work and how society uses scientific evi- jects, but some schools (particularly dence to make policy decisions. independents) offer the opportunity to Twenty First Century Science has two study three separate sciences. The lat- pillars: science explanations and ideas ter means a total of 30 per cent of cur- about the way scientists work. Core riculum time is devoted to science and science (scientific literacy) is compul- there is a strong correlation between sory. Students can also choose to take this choice and going on to study to A another GCSE if they want to take their level. The Government is encouraging study of science further and there are this option. two varieties: one is called Additional There is also a strong correlation Science (General), which is basically a between attainment in earlier stages preparation for AS Level and therefore (Key Stage 3 at 14, and Key Stage 4 at pre-university study, while the other is 16) and the tendency to go on and study a more applied and vocational option. further. So we have a programme to This is an attempt to provide something raise attainment. for both the future specialists and those Much public money is invested in who will take their study of science no schemes to support the teaching of further. STEM subjects (science, technology, In England the National Curriculum engineering, mathematics). But it is carries with it a strong assessment not just about Government money. The framework, which means that there is learned institutions also invest, as do a tendency to ‘teach to the test’. When charitable sector organisations. There is Michael Tomlinson reported on post-14 some private sector investment too. If education, he calculated that out of the we can coordinate the public and private six terms spent preparing for GCSE, one sector initiatives, then we have a good term was spent on revising for, or tak- opportunity of giving teachers even bet- ing, examinations. The more time you ter support. ❐ fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4)  science education Science teaching in Scotland Bob Kibble

will start with some observations Finally, in Scotland there is a strong from working both sides of the River culture of respect for science, permeating ITweed. The science department in the public domain and parents’ attitudes. every Scottish school includes specialist Science seems to have a higher profile in teachers in physics, chemistry and biol- the public awareness in Scotland. ogy. The same cannot be said of English Why is science education so important? schools. Scottish teachers are trained to The stories that are within science educa- Bob Kibble is Senior Lecturer at The teach physics, chemistry and biology as tion represent perhaps the single most sig- Moray House School of Education, individual subjects, but they also take a nificant cultural legacy of mankind. If we University of Edinburgh. He taught course in general science. The number can give anything to those who will come in London for 22 years. He������������ is now an of trainees does not seem to be falling, after us, it is a window into those argu- active curriculum developer and has but while the overall figures look healthy ments, discussions, challenges, paradigm produced learning materials for the there are some underlying problems. For shifts, hard work and pain that represent Open University, the Salters-Horners instance, in some schools, physics teach- over 500 years of science enterprise. That Physics Course and the Institute of ers are teaching exam courses at higher is why it should be on the curriculum. Physics 11-14 Supporting Physics levels, but younger children do not meet a The Scottish Science Strategy docu- Teaching project. trained physics teacher. ment included a chapter on education, In Scotland, science classes have a with the message that there was a dual maximum of 20 pupils and a specialist purpose for science education: one pur- teacher. In England, classes of around pose is to give all children the skills and 30 are the norm, and chances are that confidence to act as informed citizens. the physics teacher is perhaps a retrained That is what science education for all geographer or biologist. learners should be about. I was a Chief Examiner for one of the A recent report1 asked 11 institu- exam boards in England. The five exami- tions of higher education (the ‘science nation boards in England and Wales each gatekeepers’), “What sort of students offer a choice of syllabuses, so there are do you want through your doors?” The about 10 possible A level physics courses clear reply was that they are not happy on offer. In Scotland there is one board with many of the students that they now with one Higher and one Advanced Higher receive. Many students appear to have a physics course. Everyone knows the sys- great appetite for facts; they know all the tem, the textbook and the exam format. equations but they expect to be spoon- That is a great strength, but also a possible fed. They tend to have knowledge with- cause of conservatism and complacency. out much understanding. The time is Science courses are not very different right for a reappraisal of what constitutes in Scotland and England. The laws of an education in science. physics hold in both systems. In England Science education in Scotland is in a a student in school or sixth form college period of transition. Will the Curriculum might choose four or five AS levels in for Excellence2 solve our problems? I sup- their first year. That is similar to some- port the Curriculum for Excellence initia- body who does five Highers. tive, but its values are generic: its principles More people study in sixth-form col- apply to all education, not just science. leges in England than in Scotland. Such The Curriculum Review must tackle colleges are not a feature of Scottish edu- the important question of whether we cation. I taught in a sixth-form college need one sort of science education for in England offering a choice of 28 A level those people becoming scientists and a subjects (including philosophy, psychol- separate one for ‘the rest’. I do not have ogy, a number of different biologies and the solution to this issue. I have spent 10 geology). Students might take physics, years working in Scotland and I have not perhaps biology and maybe media studies noticed a big move forward on this ques- and business studies with philosophy as tion; I have only seen tinkering. We need well. That is fine, but you will never get a to be less insular and to take note of what degree in physics out of it; you will never other countries struggling with the same be a scientist. Such a broad portfolio of problem have done. ❐ subjects mitigates against studying sepa- 1. Coggins J, Finlayson M and Roach rate sciences at university. In Scotland, A (2005) Science education for the students are more likely to study a coher- future, The School to University ent group of subjects such as maths, Transition in STEM Subjects Project physics, chemistry plus something else. Report, Universities of Glasgow and We are more likely to get people who are Paisley. more tailored, in their choices, to move to 2. A Curriculum for Excellence – The higher education in sciences. Curriculum Review Group.

10 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) stern review

The economic issues surrounding the challenge of climate change were considered at a meeting of the Foundation on 8 November 2006, centring on the findings of the Stern Review. The economics of climate change Nicholas Stern

his Review treats the economics Adaptation will be crucial, so what kinds of climate change as a challenge of approaches will be most important? Tin understanding international Most importantly, how can they be collective action and as a challenge in financed? understanding international economic Now we do not know exactly how policy-making. emissions will build up. All sorts of A key element is the issue of external- things could happen, because it is hard Sir Nicholas Stern FBA is Head ities. An externality arises when you act to predict what will happen to econo- of the Government Economic (in terms of some economic production mies, it is hard to predict the relationship Service. From 2003-2005, he was or some economic consumption) and it between economies and carbon emis- Second Permanent Secretary to Her has an impact on other people. It can be sions, and different kinds of policies can Majesty’s Treasury and from 2004- beneficial, it can be damaging. Taking arise. Take the link between emissions 2005, Director of Policy and Research your car out slows other road users; and atmospheric concentrations. The for the Prime Minister’s Commission that is an externality with an immediate issue of how much of the emissions is for Africa. He is currently Visiting effect and when cars slow to walking- left in the atmosphere over time is not Professor of Economics, London pace we introduce congestion charges. a straightforward adding-up exercise School of Economics and Political Externality is a fundamental and valuable because there is some lack of predictabil- Science, and Visiting Fellow of concept in the whole story of environ- ity in how the carbon cycle and the sinks Nuffield College, Oxford. From mental economics. involved work. Stronger sinks mean the 2000-2003 Sir Nicholas was World The externality we are concerned with stock rises a little less, but of course if Bank Chief Economist and Senior is: those sinks deteriorate then larger stocks Vice President. 1. Global. Carbon emitted in Australia is build up for any given path of emissions. the same, in its effects, as carbon emit- There is a stochastic relationship ted in the UK. between temperature rise and global 2. Long-term. Emissions build up in the climate change. Stochastic links involve atmosphere. They stay there for a very probability distributions and it is those long time but the effects of greenhous- distributions that science has recently es gases in the atmosphere take time to started to provide. This allows us to work appear. with the economics of risk. It is not, 3. Uncertain, practically every step of however, absolutely clear which kinds of the way. Without the economics of probability distribution to choose; that is risk and uncertainty, you will miss the challenge of the economics of climate another kind of uncertainty. change. We just do not know exactly There are also uncertainties about the what will happen, but science has re- effects of climate change. Take global cently given us a range of probabilities cereal production: we do not know what which help in applying the economics assumptions to make about the effect of risk and uncertainty. of CO2 on productivity. More CO2 can 4. Potentially large and irreversible. Much increase productivity in agriculture but of economics deals with marginal how strongly? It appears the answer is change. That concept is useful, but not different for field trials than for actual for all of this subject because we have practical planting. More uncertainty. to contemplate non-marginal, very Then we have to look 100 to 150 years large changes. Science is leading us ahead because these effects build up over into an area of economics which actu- time. The climate of the next 20 or 30 ally involves a great deal of difficulty, years will be affected by what has already some of which is quite unfamiliar. happened. Policy must span more than There are a number of basic questions to a few decades and will have effects over address. What are the risks? What are centuries. Does that mean that whatever the probabilities? Who do they affect? is done is speculative? The alternative, What are the options for mitigation? doing nothing, is very risky many of us What can we do about these risks? How would argue. can they be reduced? What does it cost Let us look at the science and its eco- to take action? Having then narrowed nomic implications as we understand it. down the options that make sense, we What does the build up of stocks in the can start to ask about how to get there. atmosphere tell us? Figure 1 shows 90 per What kind of incentive structures will cent confidence intervals. The green bars, work to support the reduction of carbon? the 5-95 per cent confidence intervals, fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) 11 stern review

would be far less effective at absorbing 5% 400 ppm CO2e 95% snow and rain and the rain would run off these mountains very quickly. We do not know what will happen to the 450 ppm CO e 2 monsoon. It is quite likely that there will be population movements if parts of the 550 ppm CO e 2 world become very difficult to live in and that would cause dislocation and 650ppm CO e disruption. Developed countries are not 2 immune, either; parts of Florida could be submerged. Hurricane intensity would increase pretty strongly and there are 750ppm CO2e some very important ‘convexities’ here, where you get rising marginal damages. Eventual temperature change (relative to pre-industrial) The intensity speed of the hurricane goes up very rapidly with water temperature 0°C 1°C 2°C 3°C 4°C 5°C and the ‘destructivity’ of the hurricane goes up very sharply with the wind speed. With convex effects you cannot simply Figure 1. Stabilisation concentrations and resultant warming. extrapolate out from 2-3 oC to 5-6 oC. In some models, there are drops in focus on two particular distributions economic growth and with changes in precipitation of up to 75 per cent pre- from the IPCC’s Third Assessment societies like China and India. The rate dicted by the end of the century under Report and a recent Hadley Centre study could average 4ppm over the century. business as usual. The Amazon might (the dotted lines stretching out are just Add that to 430 and the total will be suffer major die-backs. Two hundred there to draw attention to other prob- somewhere between 800 and 850ppm. million people live in coastal areas and ability distributions). We chose these This is not fancy economic modelling, would be vulnerable to storm surges, and two because it seemed to us (and we were this is back of the envelope stuff. so on. These kinds of things are very advised on this) that they were fairly cen- If we all ignore the problem and do difficult to quantify at an aggregate level. tral to the science estimates of the prob- nothing, we would have to consider these We have taken one particular model ability distributions. high concentrations with temperature which allows us to deal with uncertainty We are already past 400 parts per rises of 5-6 oC and above. I suggest that in a rather explicit way (that is why

million (ppm) of CO2 equivalent: we such an increase is dangerous territory, we chose the model), the PAGE model have reached 430ppm. That gives a probably very dangerous territory. developed by Chris Hope at Cambridge. confidence interval centred more or The numbers should not be taken lit- We very much hope that other people less between 1oC and 3oC. At 450ppm erally, but we do have to think about the will try out the kinds of effects that we then, roughly speaking, there is slightly very big risks and what might happen. have been considering in their models. more than a 50/50 chance of being above The last ice age, 10 or 12,000 years ago, The reason we chose PAGE was that it is 2 oC. But in that stabilisation range for was about 5 oC cooler than today. The very well adapted to dealing with uncer- the stock of greenhouse gases, there is a world has surely been transformed since tainty. It is very easy to alter the param- strong likelihood of being under 3 oC. At then in terms of its physical geography, eters; it is rather a transparent process. 550ppm, you would be pretty confident its human geography, where we live and Essentially (for the mathematicians), to be under 4 oC, but not certain. how we live our lives. A 5 oC increase we look at an integral of utility of con- Now most of the economics of will produce a transformation as well sumption over time, with a small dis- climate change (and for understand- and, although it is difficult to know just count rate attached to it. We then take able reasons) have focussed on 2-3 oC what that would be, it is worrying. the expectation of that integral. So we increases. Using empirical data, there is There is a lot in the report about are averaging over time, we are averaging some chance of understanding what the disaggregated impacts. I spent most of across states of nature, averaging across effects might be, so it is understandable my life as a micro-economist, much of possible outcomes. We ask ourselves why people focus on this range. Yet from it working in developing countries, and “You’ve got the expectation of an integral the diagram it is clear, if you take these these disaggregated micro-impacts are of a utility, how do you summarise a analyses of risk seriously, that you have the most telling when thinking about path which is evaluated in that way?” and to start thinking about rather higher different temperature increases. we say “Well, just imagine a consump- temperatures. At 650ppm the change is The developing countries are espe- tion which, if it was definite and grew centred around 4 oC or so, for 750ppm it cially vulnerable here. Geographically at a constant rate associated with the is still higher. At 800-850ppm you get, as they are located in hotter places, so extra model, would give exactly the same inte- far as we understand it, a 50/50 probabil- heat is more damaging. They have less gral.” We call that the Balanced Growth ity, or higher, of being above 5 oC. diversified economies, a particularly Equivalent. Jim Mirrlees and I did a With business as usual, the world strong emphasis on agricultural employ- paper on this over 30 years ago, and it could reach 800-850ppm by the end ment and they lack resources to invest in is the tool we use simply to calibrate the of the century. Simple mental arith- their own protection. The kind of exam- expectation of a utility integral. But it metic is reasonably reliable here. We ple which could arise under business as allows us to talk about the percentage are at 430ppm and adding between 2.5 usual is that over 1 billion people would changes of the effects embodied in a and 3ppm a year. Ten years and that suffer water shortages by the 2080s, whole path. means 25 or 30ppm, so we will be above many of those in Africa. It looks as if Figure 2 is a sketch of a balanced 450ppm. That growth rate under busi- the west side of Africa would dry out, growth equivalent. The light green path ness as usual is increasing, though – with perhaps quite severely. The Himalayas is the one which initially proceeds quite

12 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) stern review

through the PAGE model, of the kinds of valuations which other people have used. Log of The results that we get are some- consumption what higher than those in the literature focussed on 2-3 oC increases, for the obvious reason that we have allowed the Growth path with no possibility of much higher temperature climate change increases. Second, we have used the phenomenon Expected Utility Theory, the explicit analysis of risk, while previous stud- ies have, on the whole, used means of consumption or means of output rather Growth path with unabated than means of utility. These are the two climate change reasons why our numbers are larger. But the really important reason is that we are beginning to contemplate very high tem- perature increases. ‘Balanced growth equivalent’ growth path for I have said before that the figures consumption should not be taken too literally, but we have to start thinking about the consequences of the damage from very high temperatures; we have said enough already to suggest from these disag- Time gregated analyses that those risks are very big. My own view is that some of Figure 2. Balanced growth equivalents. the functional forms used in the PAGE model are probably underestimates. Scenario Balanced growth equivalents: % loss in The reason that we have published current consumption due to climate change something a bit higher for the upper ranges is because the calculations here Climate Economic Mean 5th percentile 95th percentile (Figure 3) do not include intra-temporal income distribution. We know from the Baseline Market impacts + 5.0 0.6 12.3 work of Nordhaus and others that if you Climate risk of catastrophe bring in intra-temporal income distribu- tion considerations, i.e. considerations Market impacts + of greater damages in poorer countries risk of catastrophe 10.9 2.2 27.4 than rich countries, then the estimates + non-market are larger. So we have a step-up from impacts 14.4 per cent to 20 per cent, and we have High Market impacts + worked deliberately in very round figures Climate risk of catastrophe 6.9 0.9 16.5 to take into account intra-temporal dis- tribution in the analysis. Market impacts + Of course there are some things that matter a great deal in all of this. risk of catastrophe 14.4 2.7 32.6 + non-market Economists know the difference between impacts discount rates and pure-time discount rates; we argue that the pure-time dis- Figure 3. Losses in per capita consumption. count rate should be very small. That is the discounting you apply to somebody’s happily (imagine this is the business as models. Yet the kinds of probability utility simply because they come later. If usual path). Then it runs into trouble distributions for greenhouse gases in the you stand with your grandchild who let with climate change, and the dark green atmosphere are similar to those from the us suppose is 60 years younger than you, line is the average across that develop- much more sophisticated models. The can you look her or him in the eye and ment. You can imagine little fans about High Climate adds a little bit for meth- say “Well you’re coming 60 years after the green line if you want to introduce ane feedbacks. me, so you only get half of what I get”? probability. What we do then, in the For reasonably narrow market That is the kind of ethical consideration PAGE model, is to build in the stochastic impacts, together with some element of you have to confront. There is some dis- elements; we look at percentage losses in risk of catastrophic events, 5 per cent cussion of pure-time discounting under terms of this balanced growth equiva- losses in per capita consumption are the heading of ‘Ethics’ in the Review. It lent, and we look at different kinds of associated with business as usual (the is one of the few pieces of economics possibilities. Baseline Climate) and around 7 per where we have consulted the Professor of The Baseline Climate scenario in cent – well 6.9 per cent – for the Higher Moral Philosophy at Oxford. However, Figure 3 is a climate involving a relation- Climate scenario. If you add in non- many other economists of philosophical ship between concentrations and temper- market effects (which are attempts, and bent, Frank Ramsey, A C Pigou, Amartya ature which more or less fits with current only attempts, to value the environment Sen and so on, have actually come to the knowledge. It is a very crude approxi- and to value health) then you make same position, which is that there should mation because PAGE does not have the a significant addition. These are not be low pure-time discounting. sophistication of modern climate change our evaluations, they are simulations, This is important. You can always fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) 13 stern review

450ppm CO2e it and this is important as well. 500ppm CO2e (falling to 450 CO2e in 2150) Adaptation is absolutely crucial. There 550 ppm CO2e is no way we can avoid climate change. Business as usual It is going to be tougher for developing countries and development itself – diver- 100 sification, building up flexibility through

90 human capital and so on – is at the heart of adaptation. However, there will be 80 extra costs for more robust infrastructure, 70 for developing new crops, for disaster relief, and so on. Adaptation will involve 60 costs, and that reinforces the importance 50 of delivering on promises of aid. 40 For international action to work, there 50GtCO2e have to be quantitative goals. These 30 65GtCO2e would be the organising principles for sta- 20 bilisation targets, around which other pol- 70GtCO2e

Global emissions (GtCO2e) 10 icy would be formed. The economics of risk entail stabilisation goals, the econom- 0 ics of cost requires flexibility wherever 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100 possible. Action must be equitable and we Stabilising below 450ppm CO2e would require emissions to peak by 2010 argue that, because rich countries are able with 6–10% p.a. decline thereafter. to bear the burden and they are respon- If emissions peak in 2020, we can stabilise below 550ppm CO2e if we achieve annual sible for the bulk of past emissions, they declines of 1–2.5% afterwards. should bear the bulk of the cost. That is A 10 year delay almost doubles the annual rate of decline required. nothing more than the Kyoto principle of common differentiated responsibility. How to get people to agree? First, I Figure 4. Economics of stabilisation. think, we need a common understanding that we will all be affected and that we find a pure-time discount rate – i.e. a will be different for carbon-intensive can be much more effective if we work devaluation of the future purely because industries and we just note here that together. We have to understand and it is in the future – that will stop you there will be new markets, too. The vari- respect what other people are doing. The caring about climate change. If you put ous estimates of new markets the IEA United States is not doing nothing; there sufficiently low rates on effects that are has looked at suggest that they could is a great deal of R&D in the United going to happen 50 or 100 years from be worth up to $500bn a year. Shell’s States. California is involved in trading. now, simply because of the timing and estimates are a bit larger than that. We The Chinese are not doing nothing; there not because of the consumption levels, argue, too, that mitigation policy is con- are two big targets in the 11th 5 year plan you can always eliminate any concern. sistent with other energy policies which beginning this year (one is the growth Higher rates of economic growth will are concerned with energy security, air rate, the other to reduce the energy make a difference in these models; they quality and so on; and of course forestry intensity of output by 20 per cent over will increase emissions. Although emis- has its benefits as well. the planned period). It is essential to sions go up faster, people grow wealthy There are several important elements understand what other people are already more quickly, so less weight needs to be of policy. An effective carbon price: doing as a basis for doing more together. given to consumption changes: these two you can achieve this through taxation, We must look for structures that bring effects might, in fact, balance out. Lastly, through carbon trading and you can get mutual benefit, like carbon trading and let me emphasis the point again that the it implicitly through regulation of prod- sharing of technology. If we brought the kind of disaggregated analysis that we uct standards and so on. R&D: well ener- top 20 emitting countries into trading of have been doing leads us to suppose that gy R&D has fallen by around half in the the kind covered in the EU ETS, it would the damage from very high temperatures last 20 years. We argue that this should multiply the market by five. It is crucial is underestimated. be restored. We argue that the public ele- to work inclusively. What can be done to stabilise the situ- ment should go up by a factor of two (to There is a very good argument for ation? You have to act across the board around $10 billion worldwide this is) and stabilising between 450 and 550ppm. It because emissions come from everywhere the private R&D market is likely to fol- is possible to achieve. I am optimistic; – from power, transport, land use and so low. This should not just be about R&D, we understand enough about the risks to on. Again there is uncertainty here, but though, it should include deployment. formulate policy. We understand enough the costs seem to average out around one Beyond pricing and technology, stand- about the economics of incentive, the per cent of GDP. So generating power ards are very important to give people role of regulation and different kinds of is a bit more expensive, for example. It confidence. You cannot do everything economic instruments to see which way is like a one-off, one per cent increase in with prices and R&D; you also have to we should go. the price index. That is why we argue think about the imposition of standards Basically, at relatively modest cost, we that it is manageable. We cope with one and the kind of incentives that will create. could do this. Whether we will or not, of per cent blips in price indices; they are On the other hand, although economists course, depends on how good we are at significant but do not stop growth. It is love to talk about sticks and carrots, you taking international collective action. ❐ business as usual which will eventually can also discuss and persuade. John Stern Review: www.hm-treasury. have to stop. Stuart Mill argued for the value of gov- gov.uk/independent_reviews/stern_ So, strong mitigation is fully consist- ernment by discussion; people change review_economics_climate_change/ ent with growth; the costs will vary, they what they do as a result of talking about sternreview_index.cfm

14 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) stern review The challenge to the energy sector James Smith

he economics of climate change are around 1 per cent of GDP. That ought sophisticated and the message stark. to be manageable, but it is not a trivial TThe arithmetic of climate change number: it amounts to about $350 billion. is relatively simple and equally stark. Effective management of that expendi- According to the World Business Council ture is extremely important. The sooner for Sustainable Development (WBCSD), new technologies can be deployed, the demographic and economic growth can sooner the costs of their application can James Smith is Chairman of Shell combine to produce a global economy be reduced. On timing, we may have just UK. He has been with Shell since by the middle of the century that is 3.5 about enough time to achieve the changes 1983 and has worked in all the to 4 times the size of today’s. An energy required. Group’s major businesses. Until the system that simply replicates today’s but is We must also recognise that the energy end of 2003 he was on the global three and half times to four times the size industry needs skilled people. The demo- board of Shell Chemicals as head of may not be tenable. graphics of Europe and North America technology, strategy and sustainable There are two means to tackle this. The are not in our favour. We need to excite a development. first is energy efficiency and the second is global generation of young people to take the decarbonisation of energy. If we can up the energy challenge. double the energy efficiency of economies As individuals we need to support the and halve the carbon intensity of energy, political consensus for change. We also then a global economy 3.5 to 4 times the need to change our behaviour in support size of today’s can be supportable. of energy efficiency. Business has two Technologies are available that can roles. First, it must recognise opportu- deliver the required energy within the nity. New markets and new competitive necessary carbon limits. Fossil fuels will opportunities are opening up not just in remain a substantial portion of the pri- energy but in a whole range of industries. mary energy mix into the middle of the Second, business needs to advocate change century. So carbon capture and storage and earn the right to consultation on (CCS) is going to be important. the necessary policy instruments. These The transport sector will have to instruments encompass the establishment change. There are about a billion vehicles of effective markets for carbon, including in the world today: by the middle of the giving appropriate credit for CCS. century there could be two billion. They Political leadership is important both will need to be twice as energy-efficient. nationally and internationally. In the next The fuel mix will also have to contain a few years, there needs to be international substantial amount of second-generation agreement on a carbon path through to biofuels that are truly low carbon. the middle of the century. This needs to Now, the Stern Review has shown that be supported through the establishment the cost to the global economy could be of international markets for carbon. ❐ Tackling aviation emissions Andrew Harrison

et us keep aviation in perspective. It and minimise carbon emissions. Fuel is currently accounts for around 1.6 per already one of the biggest costs to easyJet Lcent of total global greenhouse gas and we have more than enough incentive emissions. By 2050, emissions are pro- to optimise our efficiency. jected to rise to 2.5 per cent and, taking Another crucial aspect of aviation is

into account non-CO2 effects, will account that it is central to one of the main drivers for 5 per cent of the total warming effect. of wealth creation, which is the growth Andrew Harrison joined easyJet So aviation can only ever be a small part of international trade. Undoubtedly, as Chief Executive on 1 December of the solution. anything which restricts the growth of 2005. He was previously the Chief Technology is unlikely to provide an aviation will have a substantial economic Executive of RAC plc prior to its immediate benefit. A new generation cost. And on a social note, I believe that acquisition by Aviva plc. At RAC of carbon-fibre composite aircraft will aviation is a primary facilitator for peace plc he was responsible for deliver- deliver a 20 per cent improvement in fuel in the world by bringing together different ing strong growth in a variety of efficiency, but will not be in widespread cultures. consumer services, including BSM, use until 2020. As the review acknowledges, aviation is a financial and legal services. And there are already massive incen- truly international business so any environ- tives in aviation to drive fuel efficiency mental tax or regulatory measures will need fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) 15 stern review to be driven by concerted international terms of fuel efficiency, emissions and passenger load factors. action to avoid distorting the market. noise footprint. The average age of our The European air traffic control system So what can we do? The first priority fleet is 2.2 years. We have an 85 per cent is a parochial patchwork of over 40 differ- is to bring aviation within the European passenger load factor. This means that we ent agencies. Such inefficiency increases Emissions Trading System as soon as create fewer greenhouse gas emissions per fuel consumption by 8-12 per cent and possible. We believe that this is the only passenger kilometre than our traditional creates significant delays for our customers. way to deal with such an international competitors. We desperately need to create the political business and to put it on an equal foot- The point is that economic efficiency will to tackle this problem much faster. ing with other sources of carbon emis- drives environmental efficiency. Contrary Our third area of focus in easyJet sions. We should make this our number to popular belief, low cost airlines are will be to increase consumer awareness one aim and avoid knee jerk, ineffective part of the solution, not part of the prob- of environmental issues. We are look- local taxes. lem. We like to think of easyJet as the ing to use the power of the easyJet brand Our second is increased efficiency. smart car of short haul air travel. to launch a voluntary carbon offsetting EasyJet’s success is due to a radically dif- For this reason, we strongly oppose scheme for our passengers. Our goal is to ferent business model which uses the lat- airport passenger tax which applies the persuade 50 per cent of our passengers to est technology in a fundamentally efficient same levy on efficient airlines as it does adopt carbon offsetting over the next five way. We fly the most modern aircraft in on operators with aging aircraft and low years. ❐ Accounting for well-being Partha Dasgupta

he Review is a long and impressive them requires further deliberation. document. It is possible though Even the meaning of the ethical Tthat readers will not notice that parameters is not self-evident, because the authors have treated one important there are several alternative philo- aspect of the economic analysis cavalierly. sophical underpinnings of the Ramsey When economists analyse public framework and each interprets the policy, they take two sets of considera- parameters in its own way (see my Sir Partha Dasgupta FBA FRS is tions into account. First, they identify ‘Three Conceptions of Intergenerational the Frank Ramsey Professor of the ways in which the world might work Justice’1). The Review is curiously silent Economics and past Chairman of (the ways which people would choose about differences in the views experts the Faculty of Economics at the under various circumstances, the path- hold about what those figures ought to University of Cambridge, and Fellow ways Nature chooses, and so on). Once be and about the various philosophical of St John’s College, Cambridge. that task is done, they are able to chart underpinnings. It is silent too on the He taught at the London School the consequences (perhaps long term huge literature about those views and of Economics during 1971-1984 consequences) of alternative policies. their justifications. and moved to the University of Second, they value those consequences Assume, as the Review does, that a Cambridge in 1985 as Professor of so as to be able to judge the relative generation’s well-being is the sum of the Economics. During 1989-92 he desirabilities of the alternative policies. well-beings of the members of that gen- was also Professor of Economics, Reading the Review gives one the eration. Assume too, as the Review does, Professor of Philosophy, and Director impression that the case has been made that each person’s well-being depends of the Program in Ethics in Society at for strong, immediate action in the form on his or her level of consumption. By Stanford University. of an annual expenditure of about 1 per the ethical values that reflect the idea cent of global GDP. Yet, the conclusion of intergenerational equity I mean two I have reached is that the strong, immedi- things: ate action on climate change advocated 1. The tradeoffs that ought to be made by the authors is an implication of their between the well-beings of future views on intergenerational equity; it is not generations and our own well-being, driven so much by the new climatic facts given that future generations will be the authors have stressed. here only in the future; I should say at once that the ethical 2. The tradeoffs that ought to be made framework advanced by the authors is between the well-beings of people standard in modern economics. The regardless of the date at which they authors conduct a Cook’s tour of con- appear on the scene. temporary ethical theories, but pretty Technically, (1) is reflected in the time/ soon get down to the modern econo- risk discount rate which, following the mist’s mode of ethical reasoning. This Review, I shall call delta; and (2) is framework was proposed by Frank reflected in the elasticity of the marginal Ramsey in his great 1928 paper in the value of the social weight that ought to be Economic Journal (‘A Mathematical placed on individual well-beings, which, Theory of Saving’). As might be expect- following the Review, I shall call eta. ed, though, the numerical figures for the Both terms are defined in the Review. ethical parameters in the framework are The Review, rightly in my view, not given by the framework: to arrive at asserts that the tradeoff between the

16 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) stern review present ‘us’ and the future ‘thems’ should argues instead that controls on carbon generations even if, adjusting for risk, be, roughly speaking, one-to-one. In should be put into effect in an increasing they were expected to be much better off other words, we should not discount but gradual manner, starting several dec- than us. future generations’ well-beings simply ades from now. This conclusion has with- As an example, suppose we set delta because those generations will appear stood the many modifications Nordhaus equal to 0.1 per cent per year and eta only in the future. The Review assumes and others have made to the climate sci- equal to 1 in a deterministic economy that delta ought to be set equal to 0.1 ence embodied in DICE. where the social rate of return on invest- per cent per year, which is a very low fig- Their idea is not that climate change ment is, say, 4 per cent a year. It is an ure if we are to compare it with the val- should not be taken seriously, but that it easy calculation to show that the current ues advocated by other climate econo- would be more equitable (and efficient) generation in that model economy ought mists. This is to adopt a very egalitarian to invest in physical and human capital to save a full 97.5 per cent of its GDP attitude across the time dimension. now, so as to build up the productive for the future! Yet the aggregate savings Yet the Review adopts a very inegali- base of economies, and divert funds to ratio in the UK is currently about 15 tarian attitude with regard to the distri- meet the problems of climate change at a per cent of GDP. Should we accept the bution of well-being across the genera- later year. These conclusions are reached Review’s implied recommendations for tions when futurity is not the issue. The on the basis of an explicit assumption this country’s overall savings? Of course Review’s central case is based on the that global GDP per capita will continue not. A 97.5 per cent saving rate is so pat- assumption that eta ought to be unity to grow over the next 100 years even ently absurd that we must reject it out which, I shall show, reflects a fairly indif- under business as usual, an assumption of hand. To accept it would be to claim ferent attitude toward equity over the the Review appears to make as well. that the current generation in the model distribution of well-being among people, Where then is the real difference economy ought literally to impoverish qua people. The distinction between between the economics in DICE and itself for the sake of future generations. the two parameters is crucial. As the those in the Review? No doubt DICE The moral of exercises such as this numerical figures that are assumed for differs from PAGE (the acronym for the is that we should be very circumspect them influence estimates of the econom- Review’s climate model) in its climatic about accepting numerical values for ic costs and benefits of action, delta and specifications. But I looked for the parameters of which we have little a pri- eta are hugely significant parameters. underlying ethics. Nordhaus and others ori feel. What we should have expected In fact, the very same ethical values have used a considerably higher figure from the Review is a study of the extent that have been adopted in the Review for delta. In contrast to the Review’s to which its recommendations are sensi- were the basis of a pioneering 1992 figure of 0.1 per cent per year, Nordhaus tive to the choice of eta. A higher figure study on the economics of climate in recent years has used a starting value for eta would imply greater sensitivity change (aptly titled The Economics of of 3 per cent a year for delta, declining to risk and inequality in consump- Global Warming) by William Cline to about 1 per cent a year in 300 years’ tion, meaning that it could in principle of the Institute for International time. Interestingly, Nordhaus also takes imply greater or less urgency in the need Economics, Washington DC. In a sym- eta to be unity. He reports that the first- for collective action on global warm- posium on Cline’s book in Finance and period social price of carbon (which is a ing. Whether it is greater or less would Development, a quarterly publication of measure of the social damage a marginal depend on whether the downside risks the World Bank and the International unit of carbon emitted today inflicts on associated with the warming process Monetary Fund, Cline summarised his humanity) is about $13 per ton, whereas overwhelm growth in expected con- finding in an article (“Give Greenhouse the figure reached in the Review’s central sumption under business as usual. Abatement a Fair Chance”) thus: “My case is about $310 per ton. To put it more sharply, a higher value central scenario shows that ... if risk If the Review’s figure for delta is put of eta could imply that the world should aversion is incorporated by adding to work on DICE, the first-period social spend more than 1 per cent of GDP on high-damage and low-damage cases price of carbon becomes about $150 per curbing emissions, or it could imply that and attributing greater weight to the ton. This is about half the figure offered the expenditure should be less. Only a former, benefits comfortably cover costs by the Review, but it is enough to sug- series of sensitivity analyses would tell. (with a benefit-cost ratio of about 1.3 gest that the driver behind the Review’s Curiously, the Review does not report to 1). Aggressive abatement is worth- findings is the very low values of the any such sensitivity analysis. while even though the future is much two ethical parameters, delta and eta. Ethics, like facts, raises questions for richer, because the potential massive Indeed, modifying DICE slightly, so as to which there are no easy answers. I cer- damages warrant the costs” (Finance take a more alarming view for the worst tainly have none to offer. But the authors and Development, March 1993, pp 3-5). case scenario under business as usual, of the Review could have spent a lot more Despite the striking similarities between raises the figure for the social price of space discussing the various implications the numerical figures adopted for the carbon to $400 per ton, in excess of the of its choice of the two ethical param- pair of ethical parameters (delta and eta) figure recommended in the Review. eters. For that is where the Review’s par- in the two studies, there is no mention Are the numbers taken in the Review ticular intellectual action lies. ❐ of Cline’s work in the Review. to reflect the two ethical parameters I then turned to the work of William compelling? I have little problem with Nordhaus, who has been studying the eco- the figure of 0.1 per cent a year that the A full version of Professor nomics of climate change for over three authors have chosen for the rate of pure decades. By contrast, the most remark- time/risk discount (delta). However, Dasgupta’s comments appears able conclusion of his studies – conducted the figure for eta – the ethical parameter in the National Institute Economic on his Dynamic Integrated Model of reflecting equity in the distribution of Review, No 199. www.niesr.ac.uk Climate and the Economy (DICE) – has human well-being – is deeply unsatisfac- been that, despite the serious threats to tory. To assume that eta equals 1 is to say the global economy posed by climate that the distribution of well-being among 1. Lillehammer H and Mellor D H, change, little should be done to reduce people does not matter much; that we eds (2005) Ramsey’s Legacy. Oxford: carbon emissions in the near future. He should spend huge amounts for later Clarendon Press. fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) 17 evidence-based policy making

The need for policy to make effective use of available scientific knowledge was discussed at a dinner/discussion of the Foundation on 15 November 2006. Scientific advice and evidence- based policy making Phil Willis

he latest report from the House of disaster ensue (going to war in Iraq to deal Commons Select Committee on with WMD programmes). TScience and Technology is entitled There has been, and I suspect there Scientific advice: risk and evidence-based always will be, a constant tension between policy making1. Our decision to pursue this scientific advice, risk and policy making. inquiry reflects the key role that scientific Sir Robert (now Lord) May’s Guidelines on advice and risk assessment increasingly play the Use of Scientific Advice in Policy Making Phil Willis MP is Chair of the House in policy making. of 1997 are regularly updated by the cur- of Commons Select Committee Whether we are considering securing rent Government Chief Scientific Adviser on Science and Technology. He economic prosperity through the knowl- (GCSA). The recommendations from the joined the Liberal Party in 1985 and edge economy or tackling obesity, few Phillips Report in 2002, and the recommen- was elected to Parliament in 1997. would deny that successful policy develop- dations from Lord Jenkin and the House of He held the position of Shadow ment requires an effective scientific advi- Lords Select Committee, provide an excel- Secretary of State for Education sory system, an appropriate use of evidence lent basis for the use of scientific advice, and Skills for the Liberal Democrats and an effective way for Government to and our report recognises them as such. from 1999 to 2005. He also chairs deal with risk. When New Labour came to power in the All Party Group on mobile com- We also point out that the Government 1997, they promoted the mantra of evi- munications, is treasurer of the All has every right to promulgate policies that dence-based policy making, saying they Party Group on medical research and are not evidence-based. Some policies have were interested in ‘what works’, not in ideol- is a founding member of the newly a mainly political or ideological basis, like ogy. We launched our inquiry a year ago formed All Party Group on scientific the ban on fox hunting, or are introduced and decided to test the new commitment research in learning and education. simply in response to public clamour, like to evidence-based policy making by using removing the fuel escalator at the time of case studies to underpin the central themes. the fuel protests. Evidence to support public policy requires a What the Committee feel is unaccepta- good scientific research method. We found ble is where ministers or opposition spokes- a mixed picture emerging. people claim their policies are evidence- In our inquiry into drug classification, based when clearly that is not the case. It we observed that the Government had is also unacceptable if evidence is commis- made little investment in research into sioned, published or cited in a biased way addiction and drugs policy. There was lit- simply to affirm a policy decision. tle evidence to support the current policy Indeed, as successive governments have objectives underpinned by the ABC drug found to their cost, unless the evidence classification system. Some drug users underpinning policy is robust, capable of were not deterred by the classification rigorous scrutiny and communicated con- system and the police service claimed they vincingly to the public, public confidence paid little attention to it. Yet proposals by can be undermined (as with MMR), sci- Professors Nutt and Blakemore to bring entific progress damaged (GM crops), or forward a new classification system based

Independent advice. It is not always clear discussion when pure science advice is being tendered, or whether it is being combined with political judgments. It is important that, if advisory committees are reporting on scientific issues, they are composed of scientists who have the respect of their peers. It is equally important that the advice is published and subject to peer review and comment. The Departmental Chief Scientific Advisers have a vital role here, not only in ensuring that members of such committees are of the right calibre, but that unpopular views are sup- ported against political or public pressure. They also have to understand the differing timescales of scientific research and political action. This means that they have to exercise considerable foresight in identifying problems, on which evi- dence needs to be produced, well before politicians see the need for action.

18 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) evidence-based policy making

on degree of harm were sidelined without Agents Directive. The HSE failed to under- explanation by the Home Secretary, as was On the Precautionary Principle … stand that the Directive could potentially the promised review of drug classification. “One cannot change all this in a halt the use of MRI for research and its use The Government’s rejection of our recom- in invasive procedures from 2008. mendations in our Drugs report was hardly moment (…) but from time to time It was our concern for the loss of scien- a ringing endorsement for evidence-based one can even, if one jeers loudly tific capacity and the need to enhance the policy! enough, send some worn-out and status of scientists and engineers within the Our inquiry into identity card technolo- useless phrase into the dustbin civil service that led us to recommend the gies demonstrated a lack of research into establishment of a Government Scientific emerging technologies, even though the where it belongs.” Service (GSS). The GSS would sit alongside entire programme depended on these being George Orwell the Government Social Research Service available within a time span that meets the and the Government Economic Service. It Government’s plans. would be able to take the lead in identifying We have again highlighted the problem ment! Although there was a Departmental good practice in professional development that policy-orientated research has not gen- Chief Scientific Adviser (DCSA) in the for scientists and engineers (including those erally been supported through the Research Department for Education and Skills, the of secondments) as well as promoting good Assessment Exercise because it tends not to initiative was allowed to run unchallenged. practice across government. be published in prestigious journals. This There are many examples of excellent As far as our recommendations go, we is a very important issue and we expect to practice to be found in our scientific advi- make the point very clearly that where return to it in the future. sory service. However, there is also a bewil- there is an absence of evidence, or even One of the most disturbing aspects of dering array of scientific advisory bodies, where the Government is knowingly ignor- our inquiry was the accusation by some from the mysterious Council for Science ing or contradicting the evidence that academics that their work, commissioned and Technology that directly advises the exists, as we saw with our inquiry into by the Government, was selectively pub- Prime Minister to the ad hoc groups that drug classification (and maybe for good lished in order to ‘prop up’ policies. Thus, advise on subjects like GM science and reason), they should say so. Where policy Professor Tim Hope at the University of animal science. There does not, though, is based on evidence it should be published Keele told us: “It was with sadness and appear to be an overall sense of coordina- and reviewed. What is more, we urge the regret that I saw our work ill-used and our tion and direction. Government and indeed opposition par- faith in the Government’s use of evidence We therefore recommended that the ties to accept that good research and the traduced.” Professor Hope went further, GCSA should cease to be head of the Office use of pilots or trials may well result in a alleging that the Home Office had inter- of Science and Innovation (OSI), and change of policy or a change of direction. fered with other papers – even to the point should instead have an enhanced cross- This should be seen as good use of evidence of telling academics not to present their departmental role in the Cabinet Office in policy-making and not, as it so often is papers at a Criminology Conference in with a seat on the Board of the Treasury. now, a failure of policy altogether. 2003. These are serious allegations which We have also recommended that DCSAs It is crucial that academics supplying our Committee clearly has no authority to have greater independence to challenge research for government departments should investigate; but someone should. departmental thinking. This is why we have the same academic freedoms as those There was certainly no shortage of have recommended that, where possible, in universities or institutes, unless there are examples where the disconnection between DCSAs should be external appointments special circumstances that prevent it. evidence and policy was pretty stark! Ruth from individuals who have occupied senior Finally, in terms of research we have rec- Kelly’s use of evidence was somewhat positions in their scientific communities, ognised the very considerable efforts made missing when she announced her ban on and who command the respect of their by Sir David King and the OSI to embed junk food. Sir John Krebs in his Sense peers for their current research. horizon scanning in relation to science and about Science lecture was scathing in his One of the most worrying findings from technology across Government through dismissal, saying the policy had been devel- our inquiry was the decline of scientific the Foresight Programme. We must admit, oped with no evidence that it would work, capacity within the civil service itself. A however, that horizon scanning is a pretty no scientific definition of junk food, no classic example of how things can go badly futile exercise if departments ignore its cost/benefit analysis and no public engage- wrong was the Health and Safety Executive findings and concentrate solely on the ment. In fact, this policy initiative broke (HSE) leading on Magnetic Resonance immediate vista. every one of the GCSA’s rules of engage- Imaging (MRI) with the EU Physical Our report does not attempt to deal with individual areas of risk, though our case study on ID cards considered risk The role of government scientists. The discussion management, and our drug classification Government might make more use of inde- inquiry looked at degree of harm. Instead, pendent inquiries, such as the Stern Report, and the outside academies, such as the we chose to look at the communication of Royal Society or the Academy of Engineering. However, this should not be at the risk to the public, the dissemination of best practice and that pesky perennial, the ‘pre- expense of devaluing the work done by scientists in government. Scientists working cautionary principle’. We are in favour of in government departments were first and foremost scientists: it would be against good science and open communication; an their training and ethos, and they would lose respect from their peers, if they compro- approach which we commend across gov- mised the conclusions they drew from evidence because of political pressure. But ernment. The idea that if there is any risk there should be avoidance is clearly absurd. they did need to be embedded in government, so that they could understand what We therefore take the advice of George ministers needed, what were their priorities, and their problems in explaining poli- Orwell, and condemn the precautionary cies to colleagues and to the public. In short, there had to be an organisation which principle to the dustbin. ❐ would pull the science base through government to ministers. The task was to do 1. www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/ cm200506/cmselect/cmsctech/900/ this and yet retain public confidence in the science produced by government. 900-i.pdf fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) 19 evidence-based policy making The civil service and scientific advice Paul Wiles

et me start by pointing out the very current structure of government. The real progress that has been made result is that many issues need cross-gov- Lrecently to improve the use of science ernment solutions and the marshalling by Government. First, many departments of cross-government scientific evidence now have Chief Scientific Advisers (CSAs) and advice. The Chief Scientific Adviser in post. Second, many departments have (CSA) network has informally helped in Professor Paul Wiles CB is Chief now published Science & Innovation this regard, but we still have not found a Scientific Adviser and Director of Strategies. Third, the Office of Science successful formal solution. The suggestion and Innovation is in the middle of carry- by the Select Committee on Science and Research, Development and Statistics ing out external and independent reviews Technology that there should be a cross- at the Home Office. Before joining of the scientific work of each department. government research fund is interesting the Home Office he was Professor Fourth, we have a framework for cross- since, so far, other recent attempts of this of Criminology at the University of departmental horizon scanning in place kind have yet to prove their success. Sheffield, and formerly Dean of the and a series of influential Foresight reports Clear advice to ministers ought to be Faculty of Law, as well as Director has been completed. Fifth, we have a 10- based on a systematic review of the availa- of the Centre for Criminology and year investment framework for science. ble published and peer-reviewed evidence Socio-Legal Studies. He was previ- Sixth, the full economic costs of research that is widely accepted within the relevant ously at the Institute of Criminology are now being given to the universities, so scientific community. The Government at the University of Cambridge. improving the long-term support for the has long had a CSA to ensure that such science base. Finally, in spite of some set- advice is available. However, the appoint- backs we have managed to conduct public ment of departmental CSAs is more debates on important issues of scientific recent – they, like the Government’s CSA, policy, and on some of these we have led are usually seconded for a fixed term from internationally. universities to ensure they bring to their There are, of course, things that could role the evidence standards of the broader be improved and it is to those that I want scientific community and inject some to turn. fresh thinking. The Committee’s support When the present Government came for this structure of CSAs is welcome, but to power it made a commitment to I think we need to expand it to cover all evidence-based policy; and science in departments and give CSAs oversight of government has moved from being a all science. potentially useful tool to being one of the In order to ensure that ministers do key aspects of government responsibility, receive appropriate scientific advice, the alongside defence, social order and the CSA needs to have access to the range of provision of a stable structure of eco- departmental decision-making in order nomic exchange. to identify when such advice is needed. Such a shift does nothing to change the This can be achieved if the CSA sits on primacy of ministerial decision-making, the departmental board or if departments but does raise the question of whether the have a systematic process for policy deci- scientific arrangements in the civil serv- sion-making which includes a scientific ice to support that decision-making are gateway (which the Treasury advocates). adequate to the task. However, neither of these is currently We have separate professional groups common – my estimate is that only about and structures for natural science, social a third of CSAs sit on their board. research, economics, statistics and opera- Departments vary greatly on how tional research. It is not always clear at much science they fund. As a percentage either a departmental or government of total resource, this varies from almost level how these different sources of evi- 18 per cent in the Food Standards Agency dence are to be brought together so that (perhaps a special case), or 7 per cent in ministers are not left with conflicting and the Department for Environment, Food potentially confusing advice. We ought to and Rural Affairs (Defra), almost 2 per find a way to bring more coherence to the cent in the Ministry of Defence (MoD) range of scientific advice. to just 0.5 per cent in the Home Office Neither does the departmental organi- (HO) or 0.2 per cent in the Department sation of government reflect coherent for Education and Skills (DfES). In terms evidence needs. Given today’s problems of amounts, the MoD spends £595 mil- and what we know about the interrela- lion (excluding development), whilst the tionships of the risk factors behind them, Home Office spends £64 million in an I doubt anybody would come up with the equivalent year. I wonder whether the

20 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) evidence-based policy making variations between departments have a order to respond to crises. University good getting a group of scientists in to rational explanation? We do not seem to research on chemical or biological threats advise, because they would almost cer- have a mechanism at present by which is most valuable and can be the source of tainly argue with each other! departments explain and justify their sci- advice during a terrorist attack, but we Similarly, the demand for certainty has ence spend. Indeed, in most departments also need scientists available as part of our to be resisted. This can mean that things the science spend is not even a separate frontline response and crisis management. which we take for granted – such as the budget line and in some there is no sci- During the next few years, budgets are need for external and independent peer ence budget; just science spend that can going to be very tight or reducing. We review and the publication of research be identified retrospectively. need to be clear sighted to ensure that – can be problematic for our colleagues. Identifying future science needs is, of apparently easy budget savings through a Here there are issues of principle – of course, not easy. There are structured reduction in science spend do not inad- what fundamentally makes science pos- ways to try and do so, such as horizon vertently remove this strategic resource, sible – that have to be fought for. These scanning and scenario planning. Here or remove the scientific work upon which principles are reflected in Guidelines my experience is not so much the diffi- future advice will depend. We do not 2000 and 2005 on the use of science in culty of using such techniques (although want to find ourselves facing, say, a future Government and the Committee pointed they are not easy) but rather of getting a foot and mouth crisis without the scien- to their importance. There is an interest- department to think beyond immediate tific resources under Defra’s command to ing comparison here with statistics. In issues or even crisis management. The be able to respond quickly and effectively. the Queen’s speech, the Government Office for Science and Innovation has More generally, departments need to announced its intention to legislate to been encouraging such work by setting up draw on the work of the broader research reinforce the independence of statistics. an horizon-scanning centre of excellence, community. One role of the CSA is to Statistics already have significant protec- and Foresight has had some success in this foster external research links. All depart- tion for their independence and publi- regard; but the effective use of horizon ments ought to have a range of inde- cation managed through the Statistics scanning in many departments is in its pendent scientific advisory committees Commission and the National Statistician. infancy. We ought to require that forward reflecting their current needs. However, Scientists find truth by challenge and risk-focused science plans exist, and that such structures are not yet universal in argument, and that is why science is essen- the use of such techniques is a part of the government. tially a public activity. However, there is new professional skills for government External advice can be seen as prob- some scientific activity in Government training. lematic. I have found, during my period that, at least for the moment, we do need Scientific advice, of course, does not working in the Government, an interest- to keep secret. We have to manage that – and indeed should not – be based only ing cultural problem. As scientists, we need against the fact that good science on research carried out by a department. know that scientific knowledge is probabi- comes out of open challenge. It can be One could argue that, since departments listic, that the only way we have of learn- too tempting not to have peer review on will never be perfect at predicting their ing truth is by a process of openly sharing grounds of confidentiality, but we must future needs, it is better to rely on the rich our evidence and subjecting it to rigorous find ways to make sure peer review does diversity of research carried out in the peer criticism. This culture does not happen. What we must not allow is the broader scientific community. However, always sit comfortably in Government. need for secrecy to spread beyond what is there are situations where Government My first experience of the problem was necessary: if we do, then the quality of our needs an internal scientific resource in when a colleague told me that it was no work will be damaged. ❐ Science, truth and politics John Gummer

oliticians start from the disadvan- telling us that we should not accept the tage of recognising that truth is best evidence we have on how certain Poften inconvenient. Worse still, it is drugs should be used for Alzheimer’s subject to new knowledge – it is the best disease. Yet the National Institute of that we can do at that moment in time. Clinical Evidence (NICE), the organi- Out there is a public, of course, that does sation that is supposed to give us that The Rt Hon John Gummer MP has not recognise either of these facts. It will advice, has not only provided just that served as Minister of Agriculture, hold to its cherished theories, whatever but has looked at the issue all over again Fisheries, and Food and as Secretary the facts. because of public disquiet. of State for the Environment. He Truth is not only a matter of what I write to my constituents to say that was the UK Environment Secretary is said, but also how it is heard. It not I am not a scientist and I am certainly from 1993-1997, playing a key role only involves saying it right, but saying not a medic, so I can only rely on the in Convention on Climate Change it in such a way that you know it will be best evidence there is. In the end it meetings. He was later awarded received right. would be quite wrong of me to accept the Medal of Honour by the Royal Politicians who imply that evidence their view against the best evidence that Society for the Protection of Birds exists for a policy when in fact it does I can have. I have to say that, because - the UK’s largest environmental not will find themselves in great difficul- if I go with the populist view then I can organisation. He is Chairman of ty when they do need science to be able never ask the public to accept the best Sancroft International, a corporate to carry through a different policy. All advice that we have on other issues. responsibility consulting company. politicians have received large numbers I do believe, as politicians, we have of letters from the Alzheimer’s Society, done a disservice to the nation over fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) 21 evidence-based policy making

in the first place – so next time it will be Shortcomings of Parliament. Speakers discussion worse. That is the circle we have made had concentrated on the problems of the for ourselves. Now it does seem to me that Government has to set an example executive, but there were significant questions to be raised about the perfor- for the rest of society in not cutting back mance of Parliament. How many members had scientific training, or indeed, on the resources which it needs to make interests? Why was it that the Select Committee had difficulty in filling its ranks? decisions. Did Committees understand that they must allow sufficient time for quality evi- I think that Professor Wiles was absolutely right to draw attention to the dence to be produced? Did they have sufficient and sufficiently qualified staff fact that statistics are now going to be to produce good reports? What Parliamentarians had, for example, protested much more carefully protected from any against Ruth Kelly’s statement on junk foods? If the executive was sloppy about hint of government intervention. Why using science, was not that the fault of Parliament? Political argument, no less only statistics - the whole business is than scientific argument, was desirable – where it did not take place, as perhaps about public trust and confidence. Let me give you one example, which will be it had not over climate change, there was the danger that the Government was embarrassing because it is rather differ- allowed to get away with insufficiently robust policies. ent from what Phil Willis said: I think the Food Standards Agency is actually less believed today because Sir John Krebs was not followed by somebody genetically modified organisms. I think that if you call your product ‘organic’ it whose scientific independence was seen Britain is damaged very considerably as actually meets particular requirements, to be of the same quality that he himself a result. More than that, we have failed ludicrous though they may be. It is right had. to help some of the most vulnerable for Government to insist that people I end with a comment on the most nations in the world because politicians who want organic food can, when they important thing of all: climate change. I have discovered – in the moratorium buy it, be absolutely sure that it meets do find it unacceptable that, in the same – a mechanism to get out of making a these requirements. That is a proper act Queen’s Speech, we are told on the one decision. We should have taken the best of Government. The fact is that people hand that we will have an independent advice available and acted upon it. who buy organic food are making a statistics operation absolutely separate I think the same is true, too, of the choice and they have the right to know from Government and on the other way in which we often deal with smaller that when they make that choice, it is a that we are not to have an absolutely and less important things. Here I would truthful one in the sense that it is meant; independent organisation to deal with like to make a point about the conclu- it does not need to be a scientifically the problems of climate change. If we sions of the Select Committee Report. proven one. We do have to recognise are to deal with climate change, as we Very often, the problem is not that the that it is not always easy to talk in terms have to, we must have a scientific base evidence is not there, but that the evi- of ‘this is the science’. that we can point to as being the best dence does not get to the person who is I want to end by discussing what advice there is – advice that is publicly supposed to be making the decision. I that means for Government decision- stated, without fear or favour, checked, remember, when I was the Minister for making in terms of getting the right monitored and constantly available. We Agriculture, that I was on the Council scientific advice. I am very concerned politicians will not deliver unless the of Ministers in Europe which was being that it is always easiest to make savings public has access to the best advice that asked to make a final decision about the in Government by cutting scientific can be given, and that advice is turned noise of construction machinery. The research. Defra is a good example, into proper targets and there is proper person who briefed me in the DTI took because most of Defra’s expenditure is monitoring of those targets. Scientists for granted the truth of the industry’s actually decided by ministers around the themselves need to help us get what we statement that it could not get its road table in Brussels, and outwith the ability need in this area. mending machinery down to the decibel of the Treasury to control. What is left The problem about truth is not only level required. There had been no effort is very limited, so when the Government that it is immediately disagreeable if to ask for any scientific evidence and so, makes a perfectly reasonable decision it undermines much long-held belief; because that was the evidence I had, I that we should all cut our budgets by but that it goes on being disagreeable. spoke on that basis and voted against it. 8 per cent, in Defra that 8 per cent can Politicians hope that you will forget it; As is so often the case, within six only fall in the very narrow bit over that they can overcome the disagree- months the industry managed to meet which it has control. So you end up by able nature of truth for long enough for the decibel level without any difficulty cutting back on flood prevention and that particular truth to disappear out whatsoever and I felt betrayed because science and research, because there is of the public eye. One of the things I I, on behalf of the United Kingdom, nothing else. regret that the Committee perhaps did had said something which was actually Because Defra did not have the best not consider was this: how do we ensure untrue. scientific advice on the way in which that scientific advice remains sufficiently Yet sometimes the facts that you are computers could be used to implement public so that it does not become lost dealing with are very, very elusive and the perfectly proper policy which lay to the argument and we revert to the I want to point to the very clear way in behind the Rural Payments Agency, it uninformed prejudices with which we which this report has recognised that found itself vastly overspent. Without started? There is no area where that some things lie between science and the necessary advice, it made the wrong is more important than in the battle what is perceived. Let me give you the decisions, it found itself overspent and against climate change. That battle will example of organic food. The organic the Treasury then told it to find the take a long time and it needs continuous argument is scientifically nonsense. Yet money somewhere else. So where has refreshment from science, which must the organic believers (and it is, to some it found the money but through cutting remain public and which must not be extent a belief) have every right to insist the very advice that led to the mistake forgotten. ❐

22 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) obituary

Professor Sir Gareth Gwyn Roberts FRS FREng 16 May 1940 – 6 February 2007

here was an essential Welshness He was one of the youngest professors and a board member about Sir Gareth – he had lost led the arrangements for responding to the of the Regional Tneither the lilt in his voice nor the first University Grants Committee visit to Development fierce love he had for his homeland. Durham. That went well and as a result Agency for He was born in Penmaenmawr, one he was invited to join the UGC Equipment Yorkshire and of twins, where he remembered a very Committee and, later, to follow Sir John the Humber, and happy home life. The family was strict Gunn into its chair. So he was propelled, Chairman of the Calvinistic Methodist and this early influ- not at all unwillingly, into the public arena Trent Institute for ence remained with him in his attitudes with subsequent appointments to some 20 Health Services and values although he was not a regular national committees. He had the advan- Research. This period also saw a very church attender. Indeed, Wolfson College, tages of early administrative responsibility happy second marriage and, of course, of which he was President, is the only and the need for only four hours sleep each a continuation of his public life and his Oxford college not to have a chapel and night, so natural and honed ability and research. In 1997, he was knighted for his he had no plan to change that, although time were particular gifts of his. Durham, services to education. he did introduce the silent Grace at the as he reflected, was different from Bangor Then came the opportunity, as he beginning of formal meals in Hall. and Coleraine: his niche was the seamless approached retirement in Sheffield, to He went from the John Bright interface between science and engineering, return to Oxford, to the beautifully-situ- Grammar School, Llandudno, an an area which fascinated him. He enjoyed ated Wolfson College, which he did in important period in his development, also the collegiate life as a fellow of Hatfield 2001. He enjoyed Oxford greatly: he to University College of North Wales, College (later a Life-Fellow) and the sport. remained a Fellow of Brasenose where Bangor, to read physics. There he All his appointments required him to build he much appreciated its history and obtained a first, followed by a doctorate and to create – perhaps, once a task had traditions as much as the contrast with (and later the DSc) and a lectureship. It been completed he needed, like Alexander the post-graduate and liberal environ- was in 1966 that he broke away from both of old, new worlds to conquer. In fact he ment of Wolfson. He continued with his Wales and academe to become a research had not wanted to leave Durham but the public life (as a Board member of the scientist with the Xerox Corporation in package of Director of Research and Chief Higher Education Funding Council and Rochester, New York. This was a long dis- Scientist at Thorn EMI for four days each Chairman of its Research Committee, tance for someone then so parochial but, week and an Oxford visiting professor- Chairman of the Treasury Study into although he had a number of offers from ship of electronic engineering for one day the Supply of Scientists and Engineers various universities, he was conscious of (not to mention a fellowship at Brasenose in the UK, Chairman of the DTI/CVCP a need for industrial experience and a College) proved irresistible so he made that Research Careers Initiative, Chairman of chance meeting with the Xerox Research move in 1985. the DTI Genome Valley Steering Group, Director – when speaking as a substitute It was in 1986 that he was awarded the Board member of the Retained Organs for his PhD supervisor Richard Treadgold Holwick Gold Medal and Prize. One may Commission, member of the Council for at an international conference – settled be forgiven for thinking that this very suc- Industry and Higher Education, and non- the immediate future. He opined that he cessful industrialist and academic, with an executive Chairman of Medical Solutions did his best work as a scientist there, even international reputation for his research in plc). He had several honorary degrees, having a theorem named after him. It was semiconductors and molecular electron- had served as President of the Institute also a happy time domestically: he had ics, the author of publications and patents of Physics, as Foundation President of two happy marriages with three children (some 200 at the last count), the holder the Science Council until 2006, and had and he was then enjoying the early years of several national awards, including the just been appointed President of the of the first marriage and of fatherhood. Fellowship of the Royal Society (1984), later Engineering and Technology Board. However, Richard Treadgold had gone also the Fellowship of the Royal Academy He was a member of the Council of the to the new University of Ulster, Coleraine, of Engineering (2003), and the presenter Foundation for Science and Technology and in 1968 he beckoned Gareth to join of the Royal Institution Christmas Lectures to whom he was a good friend. Indeed him, so Professor Roberts (as he became) on BBC television in 1990, might want to one of his last public engagements was took leave of absence from Xerox to estab- stay with this rewarding package and enjoy as Guest Speaker at the Learned and lish a new department of physics where watching football, playing duplicate bridge Professional Societies Luncheon in he remained as its Dean until 1976. He and listening to classical music. October 2006 where he spoke about retained his industrial contact by spend- Not so! In 1990, he was approached, professional regulation, a subject and an ing one day each week with ICI creating through Lord Dainton, to consider audience close to his heart. It was shortly a team to develop the company’s interest appointment as Vice Chancellor of the afterwards that he was diagnosed with in electronics: Sir Geoffrey Allen was University of Sheffield. He accepted cancer and he died on 6 February 2007. his mentor. In 1976, ICI transferred his that appointment and looked back later The Director of the Foundation then research laboratory from Runcorn to on the 10 years in this post as the hap- said that “Sir Gareth’s contribution to the Durham at the same time as the opportu- piest of all his berths and one where he fields of engineering, science, and technol- nity arose to become Professor of Applied might be more remembered than any of ogy was such that it will be a continuing Physics and head of the Department of the others. Perhaps this was not strange, memorial to a great man”. So many will Electronics and Physics at the University bearing in mind his grooming for just mourn his passing but none more so of Durham. It seemed to be for him. such a position over the years. During than his wife, Carolyn, and his children to This, too, was a period of personal this decade, he served as a non-executive whom we send our deepest sympathy. ❐ development and professional satisfaction. director of the Sheffield Health Authority, Keith Lawrey fst journal >> MARCH 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) 23 comment A question of identity Archimedes

Archimedes is an experienced martya Sen, in his book Identity and non-scientist who rejects any scientific observer of the evolution of public Violence, points out the dangers of evidence in favour of intuition, ‘com- policy who contributes occasional Aidentifying groups by a single char- mon sense’ or divine inspiration. But comments on the character of the acteristic – e.g. religion, nationality or in between are scientists who care so debate at the Foundation’s dinner colour. People do not have a single iden- passionately about, say, the environment discussions. tity – as a Muslim, or a Croat, or a black. that they will pontificate on issues out- Rather, they have many identities – they side their discipline and non-scientists, are old or young, rich or poor, vegetar- equally passionate, but able to accept ian or carnivore, environmentalist or avid factual evidence put before them. consumer. At various moments in their You could, for example, have a physicist lives the identity which matters most to and a biblical scholar, both passionate about them will change, and the identity which environmental issues – e.g. they are for others impose on them may well not be biodiversity and against GM crops. Neither that to which they attach importance. To of them may know much about biology pick out one identity for someone, and but for each of them their ‘identity’ as an to assume that it is the characteristic to environmentalist is more important than which he or she attaches most – or sole – their identity as a scientist or non-scientist. importance not only belies the richness of And it is not necessarily the case that, were human nature, but leads to groups which a biologist to provide evidence that their can become antagonistic to other groups fears were misplaced, it would be the bibli- of different ‘identities’. Misunderstanding, cal scholar who was found more resistant to stereotyping, hostility – and eventually changing his views! violence – follow. What is important to both of them is I have noticed, in FST discussions, a their common identity as environmental- tendency to identify people by a single ists. If we persist in seeing them as only characteristic – they are scientists (and a scientist or non-scientist (or, as the case therefore right) or non-scientists (and may be, a Muslim or a Christian) we ster- therefore wrong). I do not suggest that eotype them, we increase the difficulties the gloomy consequences Sen envisages of communication and we miss the pos- will necessarily follow, but there is a sibility that they can work constructively danger of over-simplifying, stereotyping together to further a common interest. and failing to communicate. The dis- As Sen would put it, we ignore the rich- tinction itself is an oversimplification; ness of human nature and make it more there is a spectrum of attitudes, ranging difficult for societies to function coop- from the scientist who is a master of his eratively and inclusively. Sen’s passion- discipline and does not venture outside, ate arguments are relevant, even for the at one extreme, and at the other the Foundation for Science and Technology. ❐

Recent lectures and dinner/discussions organised by the Foundation.

7 February 2007 8 November 2006 Can the career path for young researchers be improved? The Stern Review on the economics of climate change Professor Wendy Hall CBE FREng Sir Nicholas Stern FBA Sir Graeme Davies FRSE FREng James Smith Dr John Bothwell Andy Harrison Professor Sir Partha Dasgupta FBA FRS

17 January 2007 The Cooksey Review: a review of UK health research funding 2 November 2006 Science Education Sir David Cooksey Professor Colin Blakemore FRS FMedSci Professor Anne Glover FRSE Professor Sally Davies FMedSci Professor John Holman Bob Kibble

15 November 2006 25 October 2006 Scientific advice, risk and evidence-based policy making What are universities for? Phil Willis MP The Lord Rees of Ludlow PRS Professor Paul Wiles CB Professor David Eastwood The Rt Hon John Gummer MP Nick Butler

Summaries of these and other events can be found at: www.foundation.org.uk

24 fst journal >> march 2007 >> vol. 19 (4) Companies, departments, research institutes and charitable organisations providing general support to the Foundation.

Aberdeen University Home Office Royal Society of Chemistry Advanced Research Advisory Group, MoD Hospital Saturday Fund Royal Statistical Society Aerial Group Limited House of Lords Select Committee on Rutherford Appleton Laboratory ALSTOM Power Science and Technology Science & Technology Policy Research ARM HR Wallingford (SPRU) Arts and Humanities Research Council IBD Science Media Centre Association for Science Education IBM (UK) Limited Scientific Generics Association of the British Pharmaceutical Imperial College of Science, Technology and Scottish Enterprise Industry Medicine Scottish Funding Council for Further and BAE Systems Innovation Norway Higher Education Baker Tilly Institute of Physics Segal Quince Wicksteed Limited Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Institute of Physics Publishing Ltd SEMTA Research Council Institution of Engineering and Technology SETNET Blackwell Publishing Ltd Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Sharp Laboratories of Europe BP Johnson Matthey plc Smallpeice Trust BRIT Keele University Smith Institute British Antarctic Survey King’s College London Software Production Enterprises British Council, Science Section KMC International Search and Selection South Bank University British Geological Survey Kobe Steel Europe Ltd South East England Development Agency British Library Kohn Foundation Teacher Training Agency British Maritime Technology Lloyd’s Register The City Centre for Charity Effectiveness Trust Brunel University London Development Agency The Leverhulme Trust BT Group London School of Hygiene & Tropical The Meteorological Office CABI Bioscience Medicine The Open University Calderwood Han Limited Loughborough University The Royal Academy of Engineering Cambridge-MIT Institute Medical Research Council The Royal Commission for the Exhibition Cardiff University Mewburn Ellis LLP of 1851 CCLRC, Rutherford Appleton Laboratory Michael John Trust The Royal Commission on Environmental CIRIA (Construction Industry Research & Middlesex University Pollution Information Association) Ministry of Defence The Royal Society City & Guilds London Institute National Grid Transco The Royal Society of Edinburgh Comino Foundation National Grid Transco Foundation The University of Nottingham Council for Industry & Higher Education Natural Environment Research Council The Wellcome Trust Council of Heads of Medical Schools Natural History Museum UK Trade & Investment David Leon Partnership NESTA University College London Deloitte Newcastle University University of Aberdeen Department for Environment, Food and NIMTECH University of Birmingham Rural Affairs North East Science & Industry Council University of Cambridge Department for International Development Nottingham Trent University University of Dundee Department for Transport Office of Science and Innovation University of Durham Department of Health Ordnance Survey University of East Anglia Department of Trade and Industry Oxford Innovation Limited University of Edinburgh E.ON UK Parliamentary Office of Science and University of Glasgow Economic and Social Research Council Technology University of Hertfordshire Elsevier Particle Physics and Astronomy Research University of Hull Embassy of the Federal Republic of Germany Council University of Kent Engineering & Physical Sciences Research Peter Brett Associates University of Leeds Council Pitchill Consulting University of Leicester Engineering and Technology Board Ponds Associates University of Liverpool Environment Agency PowerGen UK plc University of Manchester Ford Motor Company Limited Premmit Associates Limited University of Reading Foreign and Commonwealth Office, Science QinetiQ University of Southampton Section Queen Mary, University of London University of Surrey Gatsby Foundation Rail Safety & Standards Board University of Sussex Generics Group Red Gate Software University of Teesside GSK Research Councils UK (RCUK) University of Ulster Harley Street Holdings Risk Solutions University of Warwick Heads of University Biological Sciences Roehampton University University of Westminster Health & Safety Executive Rolls Royce University of Wolverhampton Health Protection Agency Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Winsafe Higher Education Funding Council for England Royal Holloway, University of London The Foundation for Science and Technology 10 Carlton House Terrace London SW1Y 5AH Telephone: 020 7321 2220 Fax: 020 7321 2221 e-mail: [email protected] www.foundation.org.uk

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