Economic Geography, Jobs, and Regulations: The Value of Land and Housing Nils Kok Paavo Monkkonen John M. Quigley Maastricht University University of Hong Kong University of California Netherlands Hong Kong Berkeley, CA
[email protected] [email protected] [email protected] February 2011 Analyses of the determinants of land prices in urban areas typically base inferences on housing transactions which combine payments for land and long-lived improvements. These inferences, in turn, are based upon assumptions about the production function for housing and the appropriate aggregation of non-land inputs. In contrast, we investigate directly the determinants of urban land prices. We assemble more than 7,000 land transactions in the San Francisco Bay Area during the 1990-2009 period, and we analyze the link between the physical access of sites, the topographical and demographic characteristics of their local environment, and the prices of vacant land on those sites. We investigate in detail the link between variations in the quality of public services and the value of developable land. Most importantly, our analysis documents the powerful link between variations in the regulatory environment within a metropolitan area and the prices commanded by raw land as an input to residential or commercial development. Finally, we relate these large variations in land prices to the prices paid by consumers for housing in the region. JEL Codes: D40, L51, R31 Keywords: Geography, Housing Supply, Land Prices, Land-Use Regulation Financial support for this research was provided by the Berkeley Program for Housing and Urban Policy and the European Property Research Institute at Maastricht University.