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GHSO FY 2005 Final Program Report Evaluation

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GHSO FY 2005 Final Program Report Evaluation Table of Contents I. Crash Trends II. Grant Evaluation Summary Report III. Individual Grant Analysis IV. Final Program Report Summary Log Crash Data / Trends 1994 Baseline1995 Data 1994-19971996 1997 1998 1999Progress2000 Report Data2001 1998-20032002 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fatalities (Actual) 1,214 1,259 1,239 1,225 1,216 1,302 1,307 1,251 1,177 1,193 1,338 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fatal Crashes (Actual) 1,109 1,130 1,120 1,104 1,110 1,169 1,177 1,126 1,058 1,091 1,190 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 100 Million Vehicle Miles Travelled (Actual) 545.22 562.13 582.76 605.39 628.29 652.21 658.72 676.06 683.16 689.36 708.60 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fatal Crash Rate Per 100 Million VMT 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.7 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fatality Rate /100 million VMT 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.9 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Injuries (Actual) 79,989 83,061 81,287 82,249 79,433 76,817 76,909 74,856 73,540 75,757 78,856 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fatality & Serious Injury Rate/(100 million VMT) 148.9 150.0 141.6 137.9 128.4 119.8 118.7 112.6 109.4 111.6 113.2 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Population 5,174,958 5,246,723 5,319,654 5,368,198 5,430,621 5,483,535 5,689,783 5,740,021 5,797,289 5,841,748 5,900,962 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fatality Rate/100K Population 23.5 24.0 23.3 22.8 22.4 23.7 23.0 21.8 20.3 20.4 22.7 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fatal & Injury Rate/100K population 1,569.2 1,607.1 1,551.3 1,555.0 1,485.1 1,424.6 1,374.7 1,325.9 1,288.8 1,317.2 1,359.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Alcohol Related Fatalities 480 488 458 465 465 477 472 339 448 298 378 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Proportion of Alcohol Related Fatalities 43.3% 43.2% 40.9% 42.1% 41.9% 40.8% 40.1% 30.1% 42.3% 27.3% 31.8% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Alcohol Related Fatality Rate/100M VMT 0.88 0.87 0.79 0.77 0.74 0.73 0.72 0.50 0.66 0.43 0.53 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Percent of Population Using Safety Belts* 60.0% 64.2% 63.3% 60.7% 56.7% 61.0% 59.0% 68.3% 66.7% 68.5% 72.0% Performance Goals and Trends Goal: Fatalities Reduce/Maintain, etc. Baseline Baseline Data Fatality Trends 1,400 1,350 1,338 1,307 1,300 1,302 1,259 1,250 1,239 1,251 1,214 1,225 1,200 1,216 1,177 1,193 1,150 1,100 Fatalities (Actual) Performance Trend 1,050 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Goal: Fatality Rate/VMT Reduce/maintain, etc. Baseline Baseline Data Fatality Rate 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.2 Fatality Rate /100 million VMT Performance Trend 1.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Goal: Injuries Reduce/Maintain, etc. Baseline Baseline Data Injury Trends 84,000 83,061 82,000 82,249 81,287 80,000 79,989 79,433 78,000 78,856 76,817 76,909 76,000 75,757 74,000 74,856 73,540 72,000 Injuries (Actual) 70,000 Performance Trend 68,000 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Fatality & Serious Injury Rate Goal: Fatal and Injury Rate/VMT Reduce/Maintain, etc. Baseline Baseline Data Fatal and Serious Injury Rate per 100M VMT 160.0 150.0 150.0 148.9 140.0 141.6 14.0 130.0 128.4 120.0 119.8 118.7 12.0 111.6 113.2 110.0 109.4 100.0 Fatality & Serious Injury Rate/(100 million VMT) 90.0 Performance Trend 80.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Goal: Fatality Rate/100K Population Reduce/Maintain, etc. Baseline Baseline Data Fatality Rate/100K Population 25.0 24.0 24.0 23.7 23.5 23.0 23.3 22.8 23.0 22.7 22.4 22.0 21.8 21.0 20.3 20.4 20.0 Fatality Rate/100K Population 19.0 Performance Trend 18.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Goal: Fatal/Injury Rate/100K Population Reduce/Maintain, etc. Baseline Baseline Data Fatal and Injury Rate / 100K Population 1,700.0 1,600.0 1,607.1 1,569.2 1,551.31,555.0 1,500.0 1,485.1 1,400.0 1,424.6 1,359.0 1,374.7 1,325.9 1,317.2 1,300.0 1,288.8 1,200.0 1,100.0 Fatal & Injury Rate/100K population Performance Trend 1,000.0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Goal: Alcohol Fatalities Reduce/Maintain, etc. Baseline Baseline Data Alcohol Related Fatalities 600 500 480 488 477 472 458 465 465 448 400 378 339 300 298 200 100 Alcohol Related Fatalities Performance Trend 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Goal: Alcohol Fatality Proportion Reduce/Maintain, etc. Baseline Baseline Data Alcohol Related Fatalities as a Proportion of All Fatalities 50.0% 45.0% 41.9% 40.8% 43.3% 43.2% 40.1% 42.3% 42.1% 40.0% 40.9% 35.0% 31.8% 30.0% 30.1% 27.3% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 10.0% Proportion of Alcohol Related Fatalities Performance Trend 5.0% 0.0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Goal: Alcohol Fatality Rate/VMT Reduce/Maintain, etc. Baseline Baseline Data Alcohol Related Fatality Rate 1.00 0.90 0.88 0.87 0.80 0.79 0.77 0.74 0.73 0.70 0.72 0.66 0.60 0.53 0.50 0.50 0.43 0.40 0.30 0.20 Alcohol Related Fatality Rate/100M VMT 0.10 Performance Trend 0.00 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Goal: Safety Belt Use Reduce/Maintain, etc. Baseline Baseline Data Percent of Population Using Safety Belts 80.0% 72.0% 68.5% 70.0% 68.3% 64.2% 63.3% 60.0% 66.7% 60.0% 60.7% 61.0% 59.0% 56.7% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% Percent of Population Using Safety Belts* 10.0% Performance Trend 0.0% 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1 Evaluation of Final Reports from 2004-2005 GHSO Grantees William O. Dwyer Gil LeVerne Patricia Simpson The Department of Psychology The University of Memphis Overview of Reports Total number of Final Reports 73 Alcohol Countermeasures Countermeasures 2 DUI prosecutor/court 18 LEL 13 Youth Alcohol 4 Community Traffic Safety 3 Occupant Protection 7 Police Traffic Services 21 Pupil Traffic Safety 1 Traffic Records 1 Support and Administration 3 The attached GHSO 2005 Final Program Report Log & Summary lists all of the grantees, along with information about their grants, including their primary goal and whether they achieved their process goals (i.e., activities they engaged in) and, when relevant, outcome (impact) goals (i.e., changes in target behaviors related to traffic safety). Of the 73 grants, 18 addressed issues that did not have a direct bearing on increasing highway safety. Therefore, “N/A” appears in their Outcome Goals accomplishment column. For the remaining projects to be adequately evaluated, all should have provided outcome evaluations that included comparative crash statistics. Projects with potential impact on crash rates Total 55 Unknown impact 32 (58%) Positive impact 13 (24%) Partial impact 9 (16%) No impact 1 (1.8%) Unfortunately, only 41% of the projects that should have assessed impact on driving behavior and crash rates actually included such assessments in their evaluation reports. Our guess is that the 32 projects that did not assess any impact measures probably did not have any impact on traffic crash statistics. This means that we did not 2 learn anything from these projects regarding the effectiveness of the particular strategies they employed, making it difficult to determine if these strategies should be repeated in future projects. Table 1 presents, for several years, the number of relevant GHSO grantees and the percent that were assigned “unknown” with respect to project impact on some designated crash category.
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