• Abstract and Figures
• Public Full-text

University of Nebraska - Lincoln DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln Survey Research and Methodology program Survey Research And Methodology Program (SRAM) - Dissertations & Theses Summer 7-17-2015 AN EXAMINATION OF SOURCES OF ERROR IN EXIT POLLS: NONRESPONSE AND MEASUREMENT ERROR René Bautista University of Nebraska-Lincoln, [email protected] Follow this and additional works at: http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/sramdiss Part of the Social and Behavioral Sciences Commons Bautista, René, "AN EXAMINATION OF SOURCES OF ERROR IN EXIT POLLS: NONRESPONSE AND MEASUREMENT ERROR" (2015). Survey Research and Methodology program (SRAM) - Dissertations & Theses. 8. http://digitalcommons.unl.edu/sramdiss/8 This Article is brought to you for free and open access by the Survey Research And Methodology Program at DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. It has been accepted for inclusion in Survey Research and Methodology program (SRAM) - Dissertations & Theses by an authorized administrator of DigitalCommons@University of Nebraska - Lincoln. AN EXAMINATION OF SOURCES OF ERROR IN EXIT POLLS: NONRESPONSE AND MEASUREMENT ERROR by René Bautista A DISSERTATION Presented to the Faculty of The Graduate College at the University of Nebraska In Partial Fulfillment of Requirements For the Degree of Doctor of Philosophy Major: Survey Research & Methodology Under the Supervision of Professor Allan L. McCutcheon Lincoln, Nebraska July, 2015 AN EXAMINATION OF SOURCES OF ERROR IN EXIT POLLS: NONRESPONSE AND MEASUREMENT ERROR René Bautista, Ph.D. University of Nebraska, 2015 Adviser: Allan L. McCutcheon This dissertation focuses on understudied aspects of nonresponse in a context where limited information is available from refusals. In particular, this study examines social and psychological predictors of nonresponse in fast-paced face-to-face surveys; namely, election day surveys —popularly known as exit polls. Exit polls present unique challenges to study nonresponse since the population being sampled is fleeting and several conditions are beyond the researcher’s control. If sample voters choose not participate, there is no practical way of contacting them to collect information in a timely manner. Using a proof-of-concept approach, this study explores a unique dataset that links information of respondents, nonrespondents, interviewer characteristics, as well as precinct-level information. Using this information, model-based plausible information is generated for nonrespondents (i.e., imputed data) to examine nonresponse dynamics. These data are then analyzed with multilevel regression methods. Nonresponse hypotheses are motivated by literature on cognitive abilities, cognition and social behavior. Results from multiply imputed data and multilevel regression analyses are consistent with hypothesized relationships, suggesting that this approach may offer a way of studying nonresponse where limited information exists. Additionally, this dissertation explores sources of measurement error in exit polls. It examines whether the mechanisms likely to produce refusals are the same mechanisms likely introduce error once survey cooperation is established. A series of statistical interaction terms in OLS regressions —motivated by social interactions between interviewers and respondents— are used to explore hypothesized relationships. Overall, this research finds that cognitive mechanisms appear to account for voter nonresponse, whereas social desirability mechanisms seem to explain exit polling error. i DEDICATION To Erika Martinez, without whom this dissertation would simply not exist. To my children Alan Ernesto, Valeria and Adela, who by constantly asking me “Dad, can we play?” kept me focused on the end goal. I love them very much. ii ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS I would like to acknowledge the members of my Doctoral Committee for generously giving their time and supporting me during this process; listed alphabetically, Robert Belli, John Comer, Kathy Frankovic, Allan McCutcheon and Sergio Wals. I owe my deepest, heartfelt gratitude to my Committee Chair Professor Allan McCutcheon. His guidance, encouragement and mentorship over the years have been critical in my work as a graduate student and in my professional life as a research methodologist. I am grateful for the year of Saturday morning meetings. Thank you for believing in me. Also, I would like to express my gratitude to Professor Robert Belli —who served as my advisor during my master’s degree— for his continued guidance, support and interest in my tenure as doctoral student. I am grateful to him for challenging me with positive questions and constantly giving ideas for this dissertation. I thank Professor Janet Harkness (who passed in late May 2012) for her encouragement to pursue a doctoral degree. As an initial member of my advisory committee, she provided valuable insight and introduced me to the discussions on survey needs and methods in multicultural, multinational and multilingual contexts. It was a privilege to work with Professor Harkness in my days as Graduate Research Assistant at the University of Nebraska-Gallup Research Center (UNL-GRC). I hope this dissertation serves a tribute to all her teachings. I would like to thank the UNL- Gallup Research Center and The Gallup Organization for providing funding to the Survey Research and Methodology (SRAM) program through which many graduate students, like myself, have been able to gain a deep understanding of survey methodology. iii Francisco Abundis Luna, from Parametría SA de CV, graciously provided access to the exit polling data used in the current dissertation. (Needless to say, the views and conclusions of this dissertation should not be interpreted as representing the views of Parametría SA de CV, all errors and omissions remain my sole responsibility.) Not only am I greatly indebted to Francisco for providing data, but also for introducing me to the world of survey research early in my career, right after college. He was one of the first friendly colleagues who guided me through my beginning endeavors and efforts to become a research methodologist. To this day, I continue to learn from vivid conversations with him about survey methods and public opinion. My work in exit polls is motivated in part by the professional exit polling activities I conducted before and during graduate school. This interest further increased through conversations in professional conferences with well-known survey researchers. I was very fortunate to have feedback on early research ideas from Warren Mitofsky (1934-2006), Robert Groves and Joe Lenski. I truly value and recognize these insights because they all helped shape my understanding of exit polls in different ways. I wish to acknowledge my current employer and co-workers at NORC at the University of Chicago, for providing me with time and some funding to complete this dissertation through NORC’s Educational Assistance program and NORC’s Working Paper Series (WPS) initiative. I thank Cathy Haggerty, Chair of the WPS Committee and the two anonymous WPS reviewers for helpful comments on earlier drafts of Chapter 4. (Any conclusions or recommendations expressed in said chapter are my own, and do not reflect the views of NORC). I am especially grateful to Ken Copeland, NORC Senior Vice President and Director of the Statistics and Methodology Department for providing me the opportunity to bring closure to my dissertation. iv I am grateful to friends and colleagues from the UNL-Gallup Research Center with whom I shared time and space as a doctoral student. It was a very rewarding experience to have people from whom to learn every day. Alphabetically, I would like to thank Tarek Al Baghal, Ipek Bilgen, Mario Callegaro, Ana Lucía Córdova Cazar, Erik Hjermstad, David Palmer, Mónica Sánchez, and Ana Villar. Also, I want to thank other friends from graduate school who have stimulated my intellectual growth and with whom I have also developed a close friendship over the years; alphabetically, Lourdes Barranco Cortés, Roberto De La Rosa, Celeste González Cháves, Francisco López-Burmudez, Alejandro Plastina and Juan Pablo Sesmero. Thank you to all of my UNL friends for your encouraging words through my Ph.D. I would also like to thank Barb Rolfes, SRAM coordinator and Renae Reis, UNL-Gallup Research Center Executive Coordinator, for their valuable assistance in the last steps of the administrative process to obtain my Ph.D. Special thanks to Marco Antonio Morales Barba —a long-time friend from my undergraduate days at the Instituto Tecnológico Autónomo de México (ITAM) — for his encouragement and sincere friendship in this scholarly journey. I am even more grateful for our endless conversations on statistical and programming methodologies. Not only did he provide stimulating and intelligent discussions, but he also provided some much-needed humor during the writing process that would have been stressful otherwise. No acknowledgements would be complete without thanking the support of my family. I thank my parents Yolanda and René who instilled in me the quality of perseverance and the importance of an academic degree —even when they did not have one. In addition, I thank my parents-in-law Arturo and Guillermina for their unconditional support through graduate school and beyond. Finally and most importantly, I thank my wife Erika. I still have not found words v that can begin to express my gratitude for what she means in my life. Her undeniable love and inexhaustible patience made possible my unwavering

Load more

  290

Copy Link