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IC2 Institute • University of Texas at Austin • January 2004
IC2 Institute
University of Texas at Austin
2815 San Gabriel
Austin TX 78705 www.ic2.org
© IC2 Institute, University of Texas at Austin. January 2004. All rights reserved.
Austin’s Wireless Future
Prepared by
IC2Institute
University of Texas at Austin
Project Director:
Eliza Evans, Ph.D.
Jon Lebkowsky
Lindsay Welter
Guangyu Huang
Daniel Mayfield
Harsha Gangadharbatla
January 2004 Austin’s Wireless Future
Acknowledgements
Wireless Future Stakeholders We would like to acknowledge and thank the many people who have contributed to the Wireless Future Project through participation in our meetings, discussions and survey. Wireless Future Stakeholders come from throughout Central Texas from large companies, startups, city government, chambers of commerce, nonprofits, and educational institutions.
Advisors We also want to recognize the ongoing participation of our international advisory board, members of which have been invaluable in lending the Wireless Future Project a broader perspective. Andrew Cohill Joichi Ito David Sifry Design Nine, Inc. Neoteny Co., LTD Sputnik, Inc. and Technorati Cory Doctorow Tim Pozar Electronic Frontier T. M. Pozar Steve Stroh Foundation Telecommunications Focus On Broadband Engineering Wireless Internet Access Dewayne Hendricks The Dandin Group Howard Rheingold David Weinberger Author/Consultant Consultant/Author David Isenberg Independent Analyst Kevin Werbach Analyst/Consultant/Writer
Special Thanks Mac Again Iain Gillott Starr Million William Allen William Green Lennie K Myers Randy Baker Michael Hathaway David Nunez Sue Beckwith Rondella Hawkins Jerry Ollier Jim Butler Kari Hernandez Laura Patterson Dan Cunningham Jim Keeler Ted Rappaport Gerardo Dada Monica Landers Michele Schalin Susan Davenport Michael McAllister Ana Sisnett David Deas Richard MacKinnon Todd Westberg Sue Edwards Andy Mathis Dick Wieland Liz Maxfield
Sponsors This report was made possible thorough the generous support of the following organizations. We thank them for their leadership and partnership.
Andrews Kurth LLP Rocksteady Networks Futures Lab
Austin’s Wireless Future
TABLE OF CONTENTS Executive Summary ...... 1 Introduction...... 7 Wireless Future Scenario 1: Seamless Service ...... 9 Section 1—Wireless Technology, Trends, and Opportunities...... 11 Cellular Telecommunications Technologies...... 12 2G Technology...... 12 3G...... 13 Beyond 3G ...... 14 Competitive Circumstances in Telecom ...... 16 Wireless Telecom Market Directions and Drivers...... 17 Local Number Portability...... 18 Bundled Services ...... 19 Fixed Broadband Wireless Technologies...... 20 FBW Market Directions and Drivers ...... 21 License‐Exempt Technologies...... 21 WiMAX and WiFi...... 23 3G and WiFi ...... 24 WiFi Market Drivers and Directions ...... 25 Wireless Future Scenario 2: Bridge Collapse Avoided...... 28 Wireless Future Scenario 3: Blastro Blasts Off! ...... 29 Section 2—Ubiquitous Mobile Communication...... 31 Wireless Quilts ...... 31 Canopy Networks...... 33 Business Applications of Wireless Technologies...... 34 Wireless in Supply Chain Management...... 35 Wireless in Sales Force Automation ...... 38 Wireless Scientific Applications ...... 40 Wireless Entertainment...... 41 Community Wireless ...... 43 ʺSmart Mobsʺ ...... 43 FCC Spectrum Policy...... 45 Open Spectrum...... 46 Changes in the Air...... 46 Section 3—Austin’s Wireless Business Sector...... 48 Wireless Business Inventory...... 48 Products and Services...... 49 Technology Type ...... 51 Economic Impact ...... 52
i Austin’s Wireless Future
Wireless Company Survey...... 52 Employees ...... 53 Revenue ...... 53 Funding Sources ...... 53 Attractiveness of Austin and Central Texas ...... 54 Implications...... 55 Wireless Adoption and Business Development in Austin...... 55 Hotspots...... 55 iGillott Research...... 58 Raak Technologies...... 58 Rocksteady Networks, Inc...... 59 Wayport ...... 60 Tuanis Technology ...... 61 SBC Laboratories ...... 62 Motorola’s iDEN Subscriber Group...... 63 Wireless Future Scenario 4: Unwired Smart Fridge...... 65 Section 4—Austin’s Wireless Ecology ...... 67 Investment Infrastructure ...... 67 Venture Capital Investment in the Wireless Industry...... 68 Venture Capital in Austin ...... 69 Special Funds ...... 74 Human and Intellectual Capital ...... 75 Workforce ...... 75 Research...... 79 Civic Infrastructure ...... 80 Opportunity Austin...... 80 City of Austin...... 81 Austin Technology Incubator ...... 82 Austin Wireless Alliance ...... 82 Community Networking...... 83 Community Wireless in Austin...... 84 A Quick Look at Austin’s Peers...... 86 Boston...... 86 Dallas...... 87 San Diego...... 87 San Francisco Bay Area/Silicon Valley ...... 88 Seattle ...... 88 Section 5—Austin’s Wireless Future: Next steps...... 89 Appendix A: Austin Wireless Company Directory...... 93 Appendix B: Local Venture Capital ...... 106 Appendix C: IEEE Wireless Standards...... 108 Endnotes...... 110 ii Austin’s Wireless Future
LIST OF TABLES Table 1. Generations of Cellular Voice and Data Services...... 14
Table 2. Differences Between 3G and 4G ...... 15
Table 3. Differences between LMDS and MMDS...... 20
Table 4. Differences between WiFi and WiMAX ...... 24
Table 5. Number of Hotspots in the US, 2002‐07 ...... 25
Table 6. WiFi Forecasts ...... 25
Table 7. Technology Focus of Austin Wireless Companies...... 51
Table 8. Distribution of Austin Wireless Companies by Revenue...... 53
Table 9. Funding Sources ...... 54
Table 10. Venture Capital Investment in Austin MSA, Q2 2003...... 70
Table 11. Venture Capital Investment in Austin Metro Region Q3 2002‐Q2 2003 ...... 71
Table 12. Top Texas Occupations for 2000‐2010...... 76
LIST OF FIGURES Figure 1. Business Applications Matrix...... 34
Figure 2. Mobile Internet Penetration...... 41
Figure 3. Wideband Platform Rate and Range...... 42
Figure 4. Types of Offices for Austin Wireless Companies...... 49
Figure 5. Distribution of Austin Wireless Companies by Product/Service— Exclusively Wireless ...... 50
Figure 6. Distribution of Austin Wireless Companies by Product/Service— Blended Wireless...... 50
Figure 7. Venture Capital Investment in Texas 1995‐Q1 2003...... 67
Figure 8. Venture Capital Investment in Austin Q1 2001‐Q2 2003...... 70
Figure 9. VC Investment in Austin, Dallas, and San Diego...... 72
Figure 10. VC Investment in Austin, Q3 2002‐Q2 2003...... 73
Figure 11. VC investment in Dallas from Q3 2002 to Q2 2003 ...... 73
Figure 12. VC Investment in San Diego, Q3 2002‐Q2 2003...... 74
Figure 13. Austin‐Round Rock MSA High‐Tech Employment, Q3 2002...... 77
iii
Austin’s Wireless Future
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
The Wireless Future project is an economic development initiative led by the IC² Institute, University of Texas of Austin. The goals of the project are to:
• Elevate the profile of Austin’s wireless industry by clearly identifying regional assets;
• Understand better the nature of the wireless sector in Austin in the context of broader technological and market developments;
• Educate stakeholders about the role of wireless technology and services in regional economic and social development; and
• Lay the groundwork for a vision of Austin’s success in the wireless sector.
Our Approach For the purposes of this report we focus on three categories of wireless services and products: existing cellular and PCS services and products; licensed radio spectrum wireless services and products, such as fixed broadband wireless; and unlicensed services and products, such as WiFi hotspots in cafes and airports.
In Section 1 we define what we mean by wireless technologies and provide an overview of market trends, opportunities and challenges, particularly as they relate to cellular and unlicensed technologies.
In Section 2 we explore the near‐term future of wireless‐‐ ubiquitous mobile voice and data communication facilitated by the presence of an available wireless connection at all times. We discuss different technological approaches to making ubiquitous mobile communication a reality and the early efforts of companies and communities to derive value from wireless data networks. We also discuss the policy developments that are critical to the continued innovation of wireless technologies and services and the movement toward open spectrum.
Austin’s Wireless Sector The analysis presented in this report is based on interviews with industry and community representatives, monthly stakeholder meetings, a survey of local wireless companies, and a review of existing literature.
Companies The most startling finding of this study regarding Austin’s wireless business sector is that it is significantly larger and more robust than even wireless insiders had thought. At this writing Austin has over 91 companies that are involved with wireless in some way, and more than half are pure wireless ventures. Over half of Austin wireless companies are working with 802.11 technology. Networking (43% of companies) and cellular/PCS (24%) are important focuses.
Most companies surveyed are small. 55% of them have 10 or fewer employees. 80% have 50 or fewer employees. Only five survey respondents employ more than 100
1 Austin’s Wireless Future
people. Regarding future employment, almost all companies are very positive. Eighty percent expect to hire more people over the next year.
Consistent with the small size and youth of Austin wireless companies, revenues are also relatively low. Seventy percent of respondents reported revenues of $1 million or less in the most recent fiscal year and over half the ventures are financed through personal savings or personal debt. However, despite the slow economy, a large majority of companies anticipate stable or increased revenue for FY2003.
In the local wireless industry there are approximately 3,400 people employed in companies with 100 or fewer employees. At some of the region’s largest employers, such as Motorola, the number of employees is much greater. However, because most new job growth originates in smaller companies, our analysis focuses on this group of startup, small, and growth companies. In 2004, this number will grow to 4,215, a 25.7% increase. In the next four years, the number of workers will grow at an average 18.93% annual compound rate to reach 7,978 by the year 2008.1 We estimate that last year, the total payroll for wireless employees in Austin MSA was approximately $125 million,2 and that this payroll generates $85 million in consumption.3
Infrastructure Although Austin is fortunate to have a wide variety of wireless companies, the success of these companies is largely dependent upon access to and the quality of a number of resources. Foremost among company concerns are investment capital, a talented labor pool, and a supportive civic and community infrastructure, particularly for relatively new entrepreneurial companies.
Investment Capital Some findings based on public information: