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Universidade Federal Da Bahia Status of Climate Change UNIVERSIDADE FEDERAL DA BAHIA INSTITUTO DE GEOCIÊNCIAS OCEANOGRAFIA ELISSAMA DE OLIVEIRA MENEZES STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN TROPICAL BAYS A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW Salvador 2018 12 ELISSAMA DE OLIVEIRA MENEZES STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN TROPICAL BAYS A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW Monografia apresentada ao Curso de Oceanografia, Instituto de Geociências, Universidade Federal da Bahia, como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Bacharel em Oceanografia. Orientador: Prof. JOSÉ MARIA LANDIM DOMINGUEZ Co-orientadora: CARLA ISOBEL ELLIFF Salvador 2018 13 TERMO DE APROVAÇÃO ELISSAMA DE OLIVEIRA MENEZES STATUS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IN TROPICAL BAYS: A SYSTEMATIC REVIEW Monografia apresentada como requisito parcial para obtenção do grau de Bacharel em Oceanografia, Universidade Federal da Bahia, pela seguinte banca examinadora: __________________________________ ____________________________________________ Dr. José Maria Landim Dominguez – Orientador Universidade Federal da Bahia ____________________________________________ Dra. Junia Guimarães Universidade Federal da Bahia ____________________________________________ M.Sc. Yuri Costa Universidade Federal da Bahia Salvador, 23 de Fevereiro de 2018 14 “Mãe, o que é o oceano?” “Uma quantidade de água que banha os continentes” Sobre simplicidade com Jaci Paula Menezes 15 AGRADECIMENTOS Agradeço a Deus por estar presente, por ser presença e por colorir o meu mundo de amor. Agradeço ao Oceano por ser minha fonte de inspiração, minha melhor terapia e o melhor lugar do mundo. Agradeço a minha mãe, Jaci Paula, por ser meu porto seguro e fortaleza, a razão de tudo e a mulher mais incrível que conheço. Agradeço a meus irmãos, Jônatas e Hilquias, pela assistência e inspiração. A minha avó por ser raiz e deixar que me afague em seus braços. Agradeço a Rafael, meu companheiro, por todo suporte durante a minha graduação e por adoçar minha vida com sua presença. A minha vizinha ‘Nega’ pelas tardes incansáveis me ensinando o dever de casa. Ao meu amigo e professor Anilson, por ser meu tutor na vida. Ao professor Lessa pelas conversas chorosas e orientação. A professora Juliana, pela breve, porém intensa inspiração profissional. A todas minhas professoras do SUNY Maritime, especialmente a Dr. Warkentine por todo aprendizado e estímulo. A minha orientadora no Havaí, Dr. Julie Brock pela serenidade e acolhimento. Ao Educamares pela fraternidade e por humanizar minha formação profissional. Meu muitíssimo obrigado ao meu orientador Landim pela paciência, sapiência e boa vontade de ter aceitado o pedido de orientação. A Yuri, meu tutor na idealização desse trabalho, meu sincero agradecimento pela partilha e orientação quando tudo era apenas ideias. A Carla, pelo entusiasmo, incentivo e serenidade. As minhas amigas e amigos da Oceanografia: muito obrigada por serem aquarela nessa página da minha vida. Obrigada a meus alunos por me tornarem professora. Obrigada a minha amiga Amanda pelo amor e irmandade. Obrigada a meus amigos W agner e Ricardo pelo acolhimento durante o estágio no Havaí e por acalentar minha vida com suas amizades. Obrigada a meus amigos Jano e Andrés pela hospitalidade e amparo nessa reta final, e por acreditarem em mim. Meu mais sincero agradecimento a todos os brasileiros e brasileiras que com seus impostos financiam a Universidade pública e gratuita e possibilitam que realidades sejam transformadas a partir do acesso ao conhecimento. 16 RESUMO As baías tropicais são uma das formas de relevo costeiras mais afetadas pela mudança climática devido à sua vulnerabilidade econômica, social, ambiental, técnica e educacional. No entanto, eles são os menos estudados em comparação com outras baías. Este trabalho revisa sistematicamente e sintetiza publicações científicas (n = 494) para identificar e caracterizar o estado da mudança climática em baías tropicais e apontar lacunas científicas. Entre as publicações em baías tropicais, 180 foram estudados na Ásia, 121 no Golfo do México e Havaí, 96 na Oceania, 32 na África, 32 na América do Sul, 24 na América Central e 9 em múltiplas áreas tropicais. Estudos de parâmetros biofísicos estavam presentes em todas as áreas tropicais. Os estudos relacionados à comunidade costeira, cultura e educação estavam presentes em algumas áreas, mas não no Golfo do México, no Havaí e na América do Sul. Os artigos documentam extensas evidências de mudanças climáticas, com consequências para sistemas tanto biofísicos como humanos. O aumento do nível do mar está comprometendo as baías costeiras e afetando os assentamentos humanos, atividades econômicas e serviços ecossistêmicos. Conhecemos pouco sobre os cenários passados e futuros das mudanças climáticas nas baías tropicais. A revisão identifica a importância da pesquisa de mudanças climáticas específicas que trabalha com cronologia histórica em uma abordagem multidisciplinar, bem como sistemas de saúde, economia, política, cultura e educação. A metodologia de revisão sistemática ofereceu uma ferramenta plausível e eficiente para estudos sobre mudanças climáticas quando há necessidade de identificar status passado, atual e futuro. Palavras-chave: mudança climática, baía tropical, revisão sistemática da literatura. 17 ABSTRACT Tropical bays are one of the most affected coastal landforms by climate change due to their economic, social, environmental, technical and educational vulnerability. Yet, they are the least studied compared to other bays. This work systematically reviews and synthesizes scientific publications (n = 494) to identify and characterize the status of climate change in tropical bays and point out scientific gaps. Among tropical bays publications, 180 were studied in Asia, 121 Gulf of Mexico and Hawaii, 96 Oceania, 32 Africa, 32 South America, 24 Central America and, 9 in multiple tropical areas. Biophysical parameters studies were present in all of the tropical areas. Studies related to the coastal community, culture and education were present in some areas but not in the Gulf of Mexico, Hawaii and South America. The articles document extensive evidence of climate change, with consequences to both biophysical and human systems. Human settlements, economic activities, and ecosystem services are being compromised by sea level rise in coastal bays. We know little about past and future scenarios of climate change in tropical bays. The review identifies the importance of targeted climate change research that works with historical chronology in a multidisciplinary approach as well as health systems, economy, policy, culture and education. The systematic review methodology offered a plausible and efficient tool for climate change studies when there is the need to identify past, current, and future status. Keywords: climate change, tropical bay, systematic literature review 18 LISTA DE FIGURAS Figure 1 - Coastal ecological, economic and social attributes classification of countries with the tropical zone delimited between 30°N and 30°S. The classes are: 1. Largest percentage of natural ecosystems; 2. High percentage of natural ecosystems, highest population density and expected population growth rate at the coast; 3. Lower natural ecosystems and higher semi-alteres and altered ecosystems, moderate population growth rate; 4. High altered ecosystems, highest coastal densities and highest population growth rate; 5. Largest percentage of altered and semi-altered ecosystems, population density and growth rate moderate; 6. Highest Ecosystem Service Product (ESP) values for altered and semi-altered ecosystems, medium to well preserved ecosystems; 7. High percentage of natural ecosystems, highest ESP values for terrestrial, aquatic and altered ecosystems; 8. High percentage of conserved ecosystems, high maximum ESP values for aquatic and terrestrial ecosystems. Adapted from Martínez et al., 2007. ...................................................................23 Figure 2. The number of papers published on coastal bays per year between 1950 and 2017. Solid dots indicate publications on tropical coastal bays. ..............................................26 Figure 3 - Number of climate change’ and bay publications per annum, all year range on WoS. Solid dots indicate the concentration of 80% of the total of publications.......................29 Figure 4 - Summary of document selection. Excluded documents correspond to publications in no tropical areas. The articles included as in tropical areas were categorized per continents or region. Several areas category correspond to multiple tropical locations. *Gulf of Mexico and Hawaii................................................................................................................31 Figure 5 - Categories of articles in climate change in tropical areas. A weight was given to each category in order to better represent the distribution among tropical areas. Several areas category is related to more than one tropical area in the same article..........................32 19 LISTA DE TABELAS Tabela 1 - Inclusion and exclusion criteria for document selection divided into two parts: keyword search and title and abstract review ..........................................................................28 Tabela 2 - Keywords used in guiding the retrieved document review. Adapted from Ford and Pearce (2010) ...........................................................................................................................30 20 Sumário Introduction ..........................................................................................................................12 Tropical
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