ORENGO: THE STORM FROM WITHIN Posted on May 7, 2021 by Herman Manyora

James Orengo, who has over the last decade or so appeared like a stalwart Raila supporter, lately seems to be faltering in his support of Raila’s, and by extension ODM’s, decisions especially on matters pertaining to the BBI and the Handshake. The question is why, and perhaps more significantly, why now?

Category: POLITICS

published by viewpoints

Page: 1

The big story in town, one that seems to be rocking hard a boat that was previously thought to be in calm waters, is the James Orengo factor in the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM). And the ripples have now turned into sweeping waves if the removal of the Rarienda member of parliament Otiende Amollo from the position of vice chair of the Justice and Legal Affairs Committee of the National Assembly is anything to go by. Amollo has been replaced by Ruaraka MP T.J Kajwang.

This move by ODM has been seen as Raila cracking the whip on rebel elements of the party who have become increasingly vocal in recent times. Rumour mills were swift to suggest that James Orengo, the Siaya Senator, and in whose ‘camp’ Amollo belongs, was going to be next. Orengo is also the Senate Minority Leader. However, Raila, through his spokesperson Dennis Onyango, has come out to seemingly calm down the storm stirred by the dewhipping of Amollo saying the speculations were unfounded and ODM had no such intentions.

The widening rift between Raila and Odinga, on the face of it, seems to be about BBI. Orengo and some ODM party members and MPs like Otiende Amollo have come out to criticize the Constitutional of (Amendment) Bill 2020 terming certain sections of it unconstitutional. They have also raised concerns about the distribution of the 70 constituencies arguing that 40 of the constituencies would be allocated to one community. This schism has also been witnessed previously when Orengo has been seen to criticize certain decisions by the Handshake.

Orengo, who is also known for his flawless English and being the quintessential debater in parliament, seems to be the only man standing between and the presidency. And this, without question, has caused heavy tension in ODM and more specifically, in Raila’s camp. This is not surprising as the Siaya Senator is known to be one of the most trusted and reliable lieutenants of Raila. For him to come out openly to champion for an agenda that is not only different but politically dangerous to Raila’s political future makes many ask hard questions about his motive.

However, what is not in question is the fact that senator Orengo is a man who is known to speak his mind. But the big question remains, why now? What is the end goal for Orengo? Might it be that those opposed to a Raila presidency are using the likes of Orengo to stand in the way of Raila? Or we are reading too much into the situation?

published by viewpoints

Page: 2 This is however not the first time that Orengo has differed with Raila. In 2002, he vied for presidency under the Social Democratic Party (SDP). He said he ran out of frustration and to make a statement after Raila threw in his lot with Kibaki with his famous ‘Kibaki Tosha’declaration which saw Kibaki clinch the presidency. According to Orengo, he felt that Raila’s backing of Kibaki was a betrayal of the second liberation movement which he and Raila had fought hard to achieve.

In an interview in 2014 with a local daily, Orengo said Kibaki was a pro-establishment person who had fought opposition forces throughout his political career. However, in 2007, he was back to supporting Raila and when asked why in this same interview, he stated that his differences with Raila had never been about ideologies but rather strategy. Is this still the same case in 2021?

To begin with, let’s state one important truth; never before has Raila come this close to getting power like he is right now. Although Raila has previously seemed to be the candidate of choice, there has always been a bigger problem hanging around his ambitions. And that has been that in previous election cycles, he has been largely branded not only as dangerous to the interest of some communities but also an anti-establishment candidate.

But since the handshake happened in 2018, Raila has reworked his image and rebranded himself as an understanding, accommodating and a not so dangerous candidate to those who have otherwise feared his ascent to the presidency. This, as a result, has brought power to his doorstep.

Sadly, as those who previously feared a Raila presidency have been busy preparing for it, Orengo and a number of other young brilliant politicians and lawyers from Luo Nyanza have come out to blatantly challenge the authority of Raila. Now I ask, would this be the time to have someone, in the person and character of Orengo, who has fought so many battles with and for Raila, stand in the way of Raila Odinga and power?

Methinks the timing for Orengo is deadly wrong. This is because Raila, now more than ever before, needs his backyard’s full support if indeed he has to get power. Any division whatsoever in his backyard would be detrimental to what seems like his final shot at the presidency.

What Orengo is involved in can only be termed as a political blunder. Unfortunately, appearing to be working together with Orengo in this misadventure is Otiende Amollo. I say

published by viewpoints

Page: 3 unfortunately because Amollo is not only a leading young turk from Luo Nyanza but he is also a brain that can be useful to Raila during his final stab at the presidency and also during his reign if he wins. As things stand, Amollo stands axed for the time being, perhaps being given some time to cool off his heels and re-acquaint himself with sobriety and the party line.

Moving forward, Orengo must know it is never over until it’s over. Also, given the current political dynamics, the decision to back a Raila presidency is not an easy one; in fact, it has never been as evidenced by all of Raila’s near misses to clinching the top seat. Any doubt cast on Raila’s hold on his party and backyard can play against him. Therefore, Orengo should not play into the hands of those who may wish to deny Raila the presidency by giving them an excuse to back Mudavadi, Kalonzo or Moi.

In the meantime, we all know two things. First, the conclusion of the BBI Bill is almost certain. I doubt that the courts are likely to stand in the way of the will of this people driven process. Secondly, as soon as the BBI bill goes through and the referendum is done and dusted, everything will be laid bare. Raila will declare his presidential ambitions. This in turn will force Uhuru to come out and declare his stand either in support of Raila or to state his preferred candidate. This is therefore hardly the time for the Luo nation to start floundering, exhibiting cracks and doubts about Raila’s decision making or his suitability for the top job.

All this is not to say that Raila must run for presidency. In fact, a more strategic move for Orengo would be to keep Raila’s dream alive even if that means to work with Raila to ‘tosha’ somebody.

On his side, Raila needs to strengthen the leadership of his party. Part of the reason why the ODM party has faced so many conflicts in the recent past is that the leadership of ODM has been entrusted to inexperienced hands who do not grasp what it takes to run a party with the status and stature like that of ODM. It is time for Raila to bring in a seasoned politician to run the affairs of ODM to ensure cohesion in the party with everyone toeing the party line. Oh, and this person need not be from his ethnic community.

published by viewpoints

Page: 4

There are no comments yet.

published by viewpoints

Page: 5