Greece Political Briefing: in View of the Greek National Election George N

Home , Fofi Gennimata, Giorgos Kaminis, Greek Solution

ISSN: 2560-1601

Vol. 18, No. 1 (GR)

May 2019

Greece political briefing: In view of the Greek national election George N. Tzogopoulos

1052 Budapest Petőfi Sándor utca 11.

+36 1 5858 690 Kiadó: Kína-KKE Intézet Nonprofit Kft. [email protected] Szerkesztésért felelős személy: Chen Xin

Kiadásért felelős személy: Huang Ping china-cee.eu 2017/01

In view of the Greek national election

Greece will hold an early election, probably on 7 July 2019. This decision was made by Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras in the night of the European Parliament election of 26 May 2019. SYRIZA’s defeat forced Tsipras to reconsider his initial plan for the national election to take place either in September or October. The following essay attempts to outline the new dynamics in Greek politics following the European Parliament election.

The day of 26 June 2019 was critical for Greek politics. The European Parliament election along with the regional and municipal ones were a test for the governing SYRIZA and the main opposition New Democracy. New Democracy won the European Parliament election with a percentage of 33.12 percent (8 seats). SYRIZA followed with 23.76 percent. (6 seats) The percentage of the other parties was as follows: Movement for Change: 7.72 percent (2 seats), Communist Party: 5.35 percent (2 seats), Golden Dawn: 4.88 percent (2 seats) and the Greek Solution: 4.18 percent (1 seat). The participation in the European Parliament election reached 58.76 percent. (5.920.404 voters). Participation had reached 56.16 percent (5.567.930 voters) in the national election of September 2015 and 63.94 percent (6.330.356 voters) in the one of January 2019.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras made a strategic political mistake. By sticking on his initial decision to organize the national election in September or October 2019, he thought the governing SYRIZA party would have time to compete with the main opposition New Democracy party in a highly polarized political environment and by continuously supporting low-incomers and pensioners. He therefore considered the European Parliament, regional and municipal elections of May 2019 a political test that might give New Democracy a narrow lead which could be perhaps equalized by September or October. However, the difference between SYRIZA and New Democracy was much higher than projections (9.36 percent). This difference generates new dynamics almost assuring a victory of New Democracy in the national election as well as the beginning of a political crisis within SYRIZA.

Instead of organizing a snap national election on the same day with the European Parliament, regional and municipal ones, Tsipras took a risk and will now have to pay a heavy price. Almost immediately after the announcement of the 26 May 2019 result, he was forced to call a snap election that will probably take place at beginning of July. The disenchantment of

1 numerous Greek citizens with SYRIZA was made evident. Therefore, the longer the party stays in power the worse it will be for its political image. Tsipras will fight a hard political battle in the next weeks but his mission will be an almost impossible one.

Most Greek media and analysts frame the 26 May 2019 result as a success of New Democracy and of its leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis. New Democracy managed to increase its political support indeed. The number of citizens who voted for New Democracy in the 2019 European Parliament election was 1.873.080 compared with 1.526.205 in the national election of September 2015 and 1.718.815 in the national election of September 2015. But the 26 May result can be better understood in relation to the decline of SYRIZA’s voters because the increase of the supporters of New Democracy is not impressive. 1.343.788 voters voted for SYRIZA in May 2019 as opposed to 1.925.904 in September 2015 and 2.246.046 in January 2015.

Against this backdrop, Tsipras encourages citizens who voted for SYRIZA in the national election of September 2015 and January 2015 to reconsider their stance of 26 May 2019 (some of them voted for New Democracy, smaller parties or abstained) and possibly vote for this party again in the 2019 snap election of June/July. The disillusionment of several Greek citizens with SYRIZA (because of its austerity policies, high taxation and its handling of the deadly July 2018 fires) can hardly be reversed though. The disillusionment is also outlined by the electoral failure of its coalition partner for a period of four years (until January 2019), the Independent Greeks party. The party of former Defense Minister Panos Kammenos only attracted 44.261 voters on 26 May 2019 in comparison to 200.423 voters in September 2015 and 293.371 in January 2015.

New Democracy and its leader Kyriakos Mitsotakis are not particularly attractive for Greek citizens who do not traditionally belong to the center-right political spectrum. The number of New Democracy voters on 26 May 2019 (1.832.776) and its percentage (33.13 percent) show the main opposition party fails from inspiring the society on the whole and heavily relies on its core voters (possibly including now supporters of Independent Greeks in the national elections of January and September 2015). But in a country where a two-party system flourishes, the failure of one party (SYRIZA) goes hand in hand with success of the other (New Democracy). The period of SYRIZA’s political dominance has come to an end. New Democracy is entering the pre-election period enjoying a wind of victory. This wind of victory could lead additional Greek citizens to vote for it. Experience from Greek politics suggests some Greek voters (undecided or supporters of smaller parties) tend to vote for the

2 party which is projected to win. Voters of To Potami on 26 May 2019 (84.256 voters), for example, might be a new source for New Democracy next month.

Following the result of the 26 May 2019 European Parliament election, Alexis Tsipras said this did not rise to his expectations and he would not ignore it or quit. It is the first time SYRIZA is being encountered with an internal crisis from the moment the party became powerful in Greek politics. It won the European Parliament election of May 2014, the January 2015 national election, the ambiguous referendum of July 2015 and the September 2015 national election. But now the party does not any longer have the lead, is not the favorite to win the national elections and needs to manage a different situation. At the time of writing, the Greek Premier is searching for an efficient strategy to narrow the difference. SYRIZA will perhaps abandon the rhetoric of polarization which is currently a double-edge sword in view of the snap election. In parallel with the political fight against New Democracy SYRIZA is highly concerned about the decision of voters belonging to the left-political spectrum to support the party of former Finance Minister Yannis Varoufakis. Varoufakis’ Diem 25 party attracted 169.286 voters in the European Parliament election.

For his part, Kyriakos Mitsotakis is seeking a powerful mandate. In his first TV interview after the victory of the European Parliament election he said he was looking at the realistic prospect of forming a majority government. If this does not happen, the possibility of a coalition government between New Democracy and the Movement for Change is high. The Movement of Change saw recently former Vice-President of the Greek government Evangelos Venizelos leave the party. Its leader Fofi Gennimata decided to put former Athens mayor Giorgos Kaminis at the top of the list of candidates for the nationwide party list and caused thus anger to Venizelos. The latter criticized the former of playing into the hands by New Democracy by ensuring that it wins with enough of a majority in next month’s general elections to form a government.

As far as the right-wing political spectrum in Greece is concerned, it seems that voters are currently divided between the neo-Nazi Golden Dawn party and the newly-founded Greek Solution. In the May 2019 European Parliament election 278.822 Greek citizens voted for Golden Dawn and 236.361 for the Greek Solution. The number of Golden Dawn voters had been in 379.581 September 2015 and 388.186 in January 2015. It currently seems the Greek Solution – which is less radical than Golden Dawn but shares basic policies – constitute another political shelter for voters who belong to the right-wing political spectrum. But it remains to be seen whether the Greek Solution will endure day-to-day Greek politics.

Conclusion

The result of the European Parliament election outlines the new dynamics in Greek politics. New Democracy won the election mainly because numerous Greek citizens are disenchanted with SYRIZA. This disenchantment seems currently sufficient to bring another – more important victory – for the main opposition party in the snap national election that will probably take place at the beginning of July 2019. For many months before the European Parliament election and the regional and municipal ones of May 2019, Tsipras had hoped undecided voters and disillusioned citizens – who had voted for SYRIZA in 2015 – could perhaps revote for the party again in the 2019 national election. The result of the European Parliament election did not vindicate his political calculation. In the coming weeks, the Greek Premier will endeavor to reverse this tendency by drawing a comparison between his personal record and that of the leader of the main opposition Kyriakos Mitsotakis. The effort is hard. Although unexpected developments can play a role in politics, New Democracy is currently the favorite to win the snap election. It will either be able to govern alone or in cooperation with the Movement for Change.