Survey of Jordanian Public Opinion National Poll #15 May 22-25, 2017 Detailed Methodology
• This survey was designed, coordinated and analyzed by Middle East Marketing and Research Consultants on behalf of the Center for Insights in Survey Research (CISR). • This nationally representative survey was carried out from May 22 to 25, 2017. A sample of 1,000 adults aged 18 years and older participated in face-to-face interviews in their homes. • The sample design consisted of a multi-stage cluster sample: o Stage one: Divide country into 100 clusters distributed among Jordan’s 12 governorates based on the 2015 Department of Statistics Housing and Population Census frame. The Nyman allocation approach was used to distribute the sample of clusters among the different governorates, ensuring proper coverage for governorates with small population sizes. Weights were then used to reflect the actual population size of each governorate.
o Stage two: Ten households were drawn (with a replacement to allow for non-contacts) from each cluster. A random start and a systematic selection procedure was used to ensure proper representation of different parts of the cluster in the sample and to reduce intra-class correlation.
• Researchers conducted one in-person interview per household, selected using the Kish method.
• The response rate for the survey was 91 percent. Eight percent of contacts refused the interviewer at the door and one percent began the survey but refused to complete it.
• The margin of error for the survey does not exceed +/- 3.5 percent, with a confidence level of 95 percent where p=0.50.
• Figures in charts and graphs may not add up to 100 percent due to rounding.
• This survey was made possible by funding from the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID). 2 Right Direction/Wrong Direction Overall, is Jordan headed in the right or wrong direction?
50%
40% 40% 39% 34% 31% 32% 30% 27% 25% 25% 24% 22% 20% 19% 16% 12% 12% 10% 10% 8% 8% 5% 5% 5%
0% Things are going Things are going Things are going Things are going Not sure/Don’t know mostly in the right somewhat in the right somewhat in the mostly in the wrong direction direction wrong direction direction
Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017
4 What is your main reason for considering things in Jordan to be going mostly or somewhat in the right direction?
(Open-ended; n=410)
65% Stability and security 65% 66% 10% Improving economy 6% 8% 5% Political reforms 5% 7% 4% Citizens' daily conditions improved 4% 4% 3% Hashemite leadership 6% 7% 2% Situation better than neighboring countries 2% 4% 1% Other 3% 4% 10% Not sure/Don't know 9%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70%
May 2017 Nov 2016 Apr 2016 5 What is your main reason for considering things in Jordan to be going mostly or somewhat in the wrong direction?
(Open-ended; n=541)
Rising prices 23% 18% 26% Weak economy 22% 15% 19% Administrative and financial corruption 19% 16% 16% Unemployment 11% 13% 10% Poverty 7% 9% 14% Refugee influx 6% 5% 9% Wrong government policies 4% 4% 6% Too many problems 3%
Widespread drug use 3%
Other 4% 8% 9% Don't know 1% 1%
0% 10% 20% 30% May 2017 Nov 2016 Apr 2016 6 What, in your opinion, is the single biggest problem facing Jordan as a whole?
40% (Open-ended) 34% 35%
30%
25% 26% 24% 26% 25%
20% 20% 20% 17% 16% 17% 18% 14% 16% 15% 16% 14% 13% 8% 15% 13% 14% 14% 13% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 10% 11% 9% 9% 7% 8% 7% 8% 5% 7% 6% 6% 3% 1% 3% 1% 2% 2% 0% Jul 2012 Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017
Rising cost of living Unemployment Poverty Terrorism Jordan's economic conditions Admin & financial corruption Refugee influx Widespread drug use Low income
7 Current Economic Situation How would you describe the current economic situation in Jordan?
60% 50% 51% 46% 46%
40% 35% 33% 32% 29% 29% 25%26% 24% 20% 18% 20% 16%
3% 2%2% 2%2% 2% 2% 1% 2% 2% 0% Very good Good Bad Very bad Not sure
Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017
9 In your opinion, why is the current economy in Jordan “very good" or “good"? (Multiple answer question - open-ended; n=307)
28% Safety and security 22% 14% 19% Basic needs fulfilled 8% 12% 10% 13% Individual incomes improved 13% 13% Job creation 9% 9% 13% Stable economic conditions 7% 5% Goods and services at reasonable prices 3% 6% 9% 3% May 2017 New direct investments 11% 9% Nov 2016 Provision of basic services Apr 2016 8% Natural resources 4%
Thriving trade 2% 7% 6% Other 6% 14% 3% Not sure/Don't know 15%
0% 10% 20% 30% 10 In your opinion, why is the current economy in Jordan “very bad" or “bad"? (Multiple answer question - open-ended; n=1,521)
27% High prices 26% 26% 25% Unemployment 19% 23% 15% Low incomes 13% 13% 11% Poverty 10% 9% 8% May 2017 Corruption 10% 7% Nov 2016 5% Refugee influx 7% Apr 2016 7% 4% Poor economic conditions 4% 4% 2% Increasing public debt
4% Other 8% 11%
Not sure/Don't know 3%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 11 Do you think the general economic situation in Jordan over the next 12 months is likely to get:
60%
46% 40% 40% 36%37% 31% 33%
19% 20% 14% 10% 9% 10% 3% 5% 4% 4% 0% Much better Somewhat Somewhat Much worse Not sure better worse
Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 12 How would you describe your current household economic situation?
69% 70% 61% 60% 56% 55% 50% 50% 40% 36% 30% 31% 30% 24% 20% 20% 10% 10% 9%10% 10% 5% 5% 6% 5% 4% 3% 1% 1% 0% Very good Good Bad Very bad Not sure/Don't know
Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 13 Do you think your household economic situation over the next 12 months is likely to get:
80%
64% 60% 54% 53%
42% 40% 40%
28%28% 29%
20% 15% 12% 11% 11% 11% 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 7% 6% 5% 5% 4% 5% 5% 0% Much better Somewhat better Somewhat worse Much worse Not sure
Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 14 Which of the following statements best describes the income of your family?
60%
50% 50% 45%
40%
30%
20%
10% 4%
0% Income covers household expenses Income covers household expenses Income does not cover household and allows us some savings but no savings expenses and we face difficulties in making ends meet
15 In order to meet expenses, did your family take any of the following measures over the past 12 months?
100% (Respondents who said their household income does not allow for savings; n=955) 90% 82% 80% 75%
70%
60% 58%
50% 46% 39% 40%
30% 22% 20% 14% 10% 10%
0% Delayed major Cut on basic Bought more Requested Dipped into Sold any of its Requested Requested purchases needs on credit assistance savings assets assistance assistance from family from National from Zakat members Aid Fund Fund
16 Which of the following costs constitutes the heaviest burden on your household budget?
28% Food 15% 21% 21% 22% Electricity 26% 26% 28% 15% 16% Housing 19% 20% 13% Fuel for automobiles 11% 17% 15% 11% Education 11% 13% 7% 4% May 2017 Health 2%3% 3% 2% Nov 2016 2% Transportation 2% 3% Apr 2016 1% Mar 2015 Clothing 1%
Mobile telephone 1% 1% 2% 3% None 3% 2% 1% 4% Other 12%
1% Not sure
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 17 If prices had to increase by 10%, on which of the following would you most tolerate an increase? 58% 53% None 60% 43% 8% 4% Food 5% 8% 7% 10% Clothes 11% 15% 6% 10% Mobile telephone 5% 14% 6% 5% Housing 5% 4% 3% 5% Transportation 2% 4% May 2017 3% 3% Nov 2016 Fuel for automobiles 4% 3% 3% Apr 2016 3% Education Mar 2015 3% Health 2% 2% 2% Electricity 1% 3% 1% 4% Other 3% 5% 1% Not sure/Don't know 1% 1% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 18 In order to improve basic government services (health care, education, infrastructure, etc.), would you support or oppose levying new taxes?
100% 93% 90% 92% 89% 87% 80%
60%
40%
20% 12% 9% 6% 7% 7% 1% 2% 1% 1% 4% 0% Support Oppose Not sure/Don't know
Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017
19 Why do you oppose levying new taxes?
(Open-ended; n=888)
80% 70% 70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20% 12% 10% 7% 4% 3% 3% 2% 0% Incomes are too Services are Taxes on goods Prices of goods New taxes would Other Not sure/Don't low and citizens currently so bad and services are and services are only add to the know cannot afford and we cannot already too high already too high pockets of additional expect that new to allow further corrupt people burdens even if taxes would increase basic services bring any are improved improvement
20 Public Confidence in Parliament and the Independent Election Commission (IEC) To what degree do you believe the current parliament is effective in exercising its duties of monitoring the government and issuing legislation?
40% 37%
31% 30% 25%
20%
10% 5% 2% 0% To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all effective Not sure/Don't know
22 Did the current parliament accomplish anything for which you feel it should be commended?
100% 87% 89% 81% 71%
50%
16% 14% 14% 8% 9% 5% 5% 2% 0% Yes No Not sure/Don't know
Oct 2013 Mar 2015 Apr 2016 May 2017 23 Political Parties Have you heard of any political parties in Jordan?
100%
76% 72%
50%
21% 16% 6% 7% 1% 1% 0% Yes No Not sure/Don't Refused to answer know
Nov 2016 May 2017 25 What is the name of the party or parties you have heard of? (Multiple answer question - open-ended; n=313)
Party Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017
Islamic Action Front (IAF) 37% 46% 37% Arab Ba’athist Socialist Party 7% 6% 8% Al Wasat Party 8% 4% 6% National Stream Party (National Current Party) 9% 2% 6% Jordanian Communist Party 3% 5% 4% National Jordanian Party 3% 2% 4% Al Resalah Party 2% <.5% 4% Ba'athist Arab Progressive Party 1% <.5% 3% Democratic Popular Unity Party 1% 1% 2% Jordanian Democratic People’s Party (Hashd) 1% 4% 1% National Constitutional Party 2% 2% 1% Al Rafah Party No mention 1% 1% Jordan National Action Front Party 3% 1% <.5% Jordan Unified Front Party No mention <.5% <.5% National Loyalty Party (Wafaa’) 1% <.5% <.5% (Incorrect name provided) 11% 22% 21% 26 Government, Reform and Elections To what degree do you think the current government has been able to fulfill its duties since being selected?
50%
33% 29% 29%
25%
6% 3% 0% To a large To a moderate To a little Not at all Not sure/Don't degree degree degree know
28 To what degree do you think the prime minister has been able to fulfill the duties of his office since being selected?
50%
34% 29% 29%
25%
5% 4%
0% To a large To a moderate To a little Not at all Not sure/Don't degree degree degree know
29 To what degree do you think the current ministerial team has been able to fulfill its duties since being selected?
50%
36%
29% 28% 25%
4% 3% 0% To a large To a moderate To a little Not at all Not sure/Don't degree degree degree know
30 To what degree do you care about political reform in Jordan?
60%
48%
39% 40% 37% 34% 33% 30% 27% 25% 25%
20% 15% 15% 14% 13% 14% 11% 10% 5% 3% 2% 1% 0% To a large To a moderate To a little degree Not at all Not sure/Don't degree degree know
Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 31 Do you think a government chosen by parliament could improve political reforms in Jordan?
60% 57% 56% 52%
40% 33% 31% 29%
20% 17% 14% 10%
1% 0% Yes No Not sure/Don't know Refused to answer
Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 32 Do you think candidates elected on a national level rather than a regional level could improve political reforms in Jordan?
60% 57% 52% 48%
39% 40% 31% 29%
20% 17% 14% 11%
1% 0% Yes No Not sure/Don't know Refused to answer
Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 33 Do you think the empowerment and development of political parties could improve political reforms in Jordan?
61% 60% 57% 52%
40% 31% 29%
19% 20% 17% 18% 14%
2% 0% Yes No Not sure/Don't know Refused to answer
Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 34 To what degree do you have confidence in the following persons and institutions? May 2017 To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/Don't know 1%
Military 83% 14% 2%
Judiciary 50% 35% 7% 6% 2%
Religious 35% 42% 15% 7% 2% institutions Doctors and 35% 47% 11% hospitals 7% Schools and 31% 50% 10% 8% universities 1% Municipal 12% 39% 26% 20% Councils 3% Prime Minister 29% 26% 35% Mulki 7% 3%
Parliament 3% 24% 28% 43% 2%
Political parties 4% 15% 22% 44% 15%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 35 To what degree do you have confidence in the following persons and institutions? Nov 2016 To a large degree To a moderate degree To a little degree Not at all Not sure/Don't know 1%
Military 82% 13% 3% 1%
Judiciary 48% 32% 10% 8% 2%
Religious 37% 40% 12% 9% 1% institutions Doctors and 35% 44% 12% 1% hospitals 8% Schools and 33% 44% 13% 9% universities 1% Municipal 15% 39% 25% 19% Councils 3% Prime Minister 37% 20% 28% Mulki 12% 3%
Parliament 8% 36% 24% 30% 1%
Political parties 6% 17% 19% 46% 12%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 36 To what degree do you think the government, parliament and the judiciary are:
May 2017 16% 39% 27% 17% 2%
Nov 2016 19% 48% 21% 10% 2%
Apr 2016 3% Government 18% 47% 21% 11%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
May 2017 6% 24% 30% 36% 3%
Nov 2016 7% 38% 28% 24% 3%
Apr 2016 7% 22% 28% 39% 4% Parliament 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Very effective Quite effective Somewhat effective Not very effective Not sure/Don't know
May 2017 34% 43% 15% 7% 2%
Nov 2016 32% 46% 13% 8% 1%
Judiciary Apr 2016 32% 49% 11% 5% 3%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 37 To what degree do you feel you have a say in governmental decision-making on issues that directly affect you?
40% 40% 40% 35% 35% 35% 33%
30% 30% 26% 25% 25% 24% 23% 23%22% 20%
15% 10% 9% 9% 10% 8% 5% 5% 2% 1% 1% 0% To a large To a moderate To a little degree Not at all Not sure/Don't degree degree know
Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 38 If you could have only one or the other, which is more important to you: a democratic system of government or a prosperous economy?
40% 37% 35% 34% 30% 31% 30% 26% 26% 26% 25% 21% 20% 18% 15% 15% 14% 13%
10%
5% 4% 3% 3%
0% A democratic system A democratic system A prosperous A prosperous Not sure/Don't know of government is of government is economy is economy is definitely more somewhat more somewhat more definitely more important to me important to me important to me important to me
Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 39 To what degree do you feel citizens should engage in the development of their community?
45% 42% 41% 40% 37% 35% 35% 33% 32% 30%
25%
20% 15% 15% 15% 13% 14% 11% 10% 8%
5% 3% 2% 0% 0% To a large degree To a moderate To a little degree Not at all Not sure/Don't degree know
Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 40 Women and Youth To what degree do you agree or disagree with this statement?
“Women should be equally represented in political decision making in Jordan.”
40% 40% 39% 39% 36% 35% 31% 28% 30% 27%27% 26% 25% 23% 22% 20% 20%
15% 12% 10% 10% 8% 6%
5% 2% 2% 1% 1% 0% Strongly agree Agree Disagree Strongly disagree Not sure
Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 42 If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications, aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, which candidate are you more likely to support?
44% 45% 40% 39%39% 40% 38% 35% 29% 30% 25% 25% 20%21% 20% 15% 10% 5% 2% 1% 2% 1% 0% Man Woman Makes no Not sure Refused to difference to answer me
Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017
43 If there are two candidates running for office and they have the same qualifications, aside from the fact that one is a man and one is a woman, which candidate are you more likely to support?
(Disaggregated by gender) 49% 50% 45% 39% 39% 40% 35% 30% 30% 28% 25% 20%
15% 11% 10% 3% 5% 1% 0% Man Woman Makes no Not sure Refused to difference to answer me
Male Female 44 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:
“Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women.”
50% 49% 50% 50% 45% 45% 45% 42% 40% 38% 37% 35% 30% 25% 20% 14% 15% 12% 10% 10% 8% 5% 0% Agree Disagree Not sure
Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 45 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:
“Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of women.”
(Disaggregated by gender)
60% 52% 50% 46% 42% 40% 32% 30%
20% 16% 13% 10%
0% Agree Disagree Not sure
Men Women
46 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:
“Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of young people.”
70% 62% 60% 53% 52% 50% 48% 44% 42% 40% 38%
30% 26%
20% 10% 11% 8% 10% 5%
0% Agree Disagree Not sure/Don't know
Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 47 Do you agree or disagree with the following statement:
“Politicians do not listen to the needs and ideas of young people.”
(Disaggregated by age) 60% 55% 54% 51% 49% 50%
40% 39% 40% 37% 35%
30%
20% 14% 9% 10% 10% 8%
0% Agree Disagree Not sure/Don't know
18-24 25-34 35-44 45+ 48 Attitudes Towards ISIS/DAESH Do you consider the self-declared Islamic State (ISIS/DAESH) to be a terrorist organization?
100% 89% 89% 86%
80%
60%
40%
20%
7% 7% 7% 5% 4% 4% 2% 0% Yes No Not sure/Don't know Refused to answer
Mar 2015 Apr 2016 May 2017 50 To what degree do you feel ISIS/DAESH is a real threat to security in Jordan?
50%
42%42% 40% 37%
30% 26% 27% 22% 20% 18% 16% 16% 12%12% 12% 10% 5% 5% 5% 1% 1% 0% To a large To a To a little Not at all Not Refused to degree moderate degree sure/Don't answer degree know
Mar 2015 Apr 2016 May 2017 51 Do you believe that the ideology of ISIS/DAESH has support among Jordanians?
70% 67%
60% 58% 53% 50%
40%
26% 30% 25% 21% 20% 15% 16% 16%
10% 1% 1% 2% 0% Yes No Not sure/Don't know Refused to answer
Mar 2015 Apr 2016 May 2017 52 Do you think ISIS/DAESH is mainly supported by youth, religious people, or poor people?
50% 45% 40% 36% 36% 35% 32% 30% 30% 28% 24% 25% 24% 19% 20% 19% 20% 17% 15% 11% 10% 5% 3% 1% 0% Poor people Youth Religious Not sure/Don't Refused to people know answer
Mar 2015 Apr 2016 May 2017 53 Municipalities and Decentralization Laws Are you aware that municipalities have been divided into a number of local councils that will be elected in accordance with the new Municipalities Law?
70% 68%
60%
50%
40%
30% 27%
20%
10% 5%
0% Yes No Not sure/Don't know
55 Are you aware that municipal councils will now be composed of the highest vote recipients of the local council elections (except in Amman, where 25% of the municipal council will be appointed)?
69% 70%
60%
50%
40%
30% 25%
20%
10% 6%
0% Yes No Not sure/Don't know
56 Are you aware that the Decentralization Law establishes new elected governorate councils?
80% 74% 70%
60%
50%
40%
30% 21% 20%
10% 5% 0% Yes No Not sure/Don't know
57 In your opinion, what is the main purpose of decentralization?
Don't know 71%
Other 9%
Engage citizens in decision-making 5%
Improve basic services 5%
Close development gap 3%
Part of political reform 3%
Relieve bureacratic burdens at ministries in Amman 2% Facilitate local processing of forms and bureaucratic procedures/Alleviate pressure on 2% Amman 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 58 Are you aware that the IEC will hold elections for mayors, local councils and governorate councils on separate ballots on August 15, 2017?
70% 67%
60%
50%
40%
30% 28%
20%
10% 6%
0% Yes No Not sure/Don't know
59 Do you intend to vote in the upcoming local and decentralization elections on August 15, 2017?
30% 29%
25% 23% 22%
20% 19%
15%
10% 6% 5%
0% I definitely will I probably will I probably will I definitely will Not sure/Don't not not know
60 Why do you not intend to vote in the upcoming local and decentralization elections on August 15, 2017?
(Open-ended; n=292)
I do not trust any candidate/Unworthy 31% candidates
No benefit expected from these elections 23%
No trust in electoral process/Not 22% convinced
Not interested 8%
Work conditions/Too busy 4%
Military 3%
Illness/indisposed 2%
Other 7%
Not sure/Don't know 2%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 61 To what degree do you believe the Independent Election Commission (IEC) will be able to ensure fair and transparent municipal and decentralization elections?
50%
41% 40%
30%
21% 20% 17% 13% 9% 10%
0% To a large To a To a little Not at all Not Refused to degree moderate degree sure/Don't answer degree know
62 Influx of Syrian Refugees Do you approve of closing the borders to any additional Syrian refugees; continuing to receive Syrian refugees but limiting the number; or continuing to receive more Syrian refugees?
60% 56% 53% 50% 46% 40% 40% 38% 34% 32% 29% 30% 24% 20% 15% 13% 13% 10%
2% 2% 1% 2% 0% Closing the borders Continuing to Continuing to Not sure/Don't know to any additional receive Syrian receive more Syrian Syrian refugees refugees but limiting refugees the number
Mar 2015 Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 64 Do you think attitudes towards Syrian refugees are getting:
70% 68% 65% 61% 60%
50%
40%
30% 27% 26% 20% 20% 11% 9% 10% 8% 2% 1% 2% 0% Better Worse Remain the same Not sure/Don't know
Apr 2016 Nov 2016 May 2017 65 Demographics Demographics
Male 50% GENDER Female 50% North (Irbid, Jerash, Ajloun, Mafraq) 30% LOCATION Center (Amman, Zarqa, Balqa, Madaba) 61% South (Karak, Tafileh, Ma'an, Aqaba) 10% Urban 80% POPULATION DENSITY Rural 20% 18-24 20% AGE GROUP 25-34 27% 35-44 23% 45+ 30% Illiterate 3% EDUCATION Less than secondary 27% Secondary 41% Higher than secondary 29% Less than 200 JOD 9% 200 - 399 JOD 37% 400 - 599 JOD 34% HOUSEHOLD INCOME 600 - 799 JOD 12% (MONTHLY) 800 - 999 JOD 4% 1,000+ JOD 4% Not sure/Don't know 0% Refused to answer 1% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
67 Demographics
Single 27% MARITAL STATUS Married 68% Other 5% Working 37% EMPLOYMENT STATUS Not working 64% Public EMPLOYMENT SECTOR 32% (n=365) Private 66% Other 1% LOOKING FOR A JOB Yes 25% (n=635) No 75% Less than one month 3% TIME SPENT LOOKING FOR A JOB Less than three months 8% (n=158) Less than six months 13% Less than 12 months 20% More than 12 months 55% Not sure/Don’t remember 1% Yes 28% DROPPED OUT OF SCHOOL No 72%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80%
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