Foresight, Insight and Oversight: Enhancing Long-Term Governance Through Better Parliamentary Scrutiny
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Foresight, insight and oversight: Enhancing long-term governance through better parliamentary scrutiny E wherawhera ana te matakana i te huarahi ki tua The keen eye probes the path to the future Jonathan Boston, David Bagnall and Anna Barry June 2019 Foresight, insight and oversight: Enhancing long-term governance through better parliamentary scrutiny E wherawhera ana te matakana i te huarahi ki tua The keen eye probes the path to the future Jonathan Boston, David Bagnall and Anna Barry, with Tui Head, Gabor Hellyer and Pavan Sharma June 2019 First printed in 2019 Institute for Governance and Policy Studies School of Government Victoria University of Wellington PO Box 600 Wellington © Institute for Governance and Policy Studies, Victoria University of Wellington We encourage you to make use of the content of this report, and therefore license its content under the Creative Commons Attribution licence, also known as CC-BY 4.0. The full terms of this licence are set out at https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/. In essence, when using the content of this report, you are free to share and adapt the content for any purpose, provided that you must do three things: give appropriate credit to the copyright holder, provide a link to the CC-BY 4.0 licence, and indicate if you made changes to the original content. ISBN 978-0-473-48292-3 Authors: Jonathan Boston, David Bagnall and Anna Barry Format: Softcover Publication Date: 06/2019 Foreword In New Zealand, our democratic government is one of our strengths. Our democracy operates on the basis of parliamentary sovereignty, where Parliament – made up of the elected representatives of the people – is the supreme power. Yet, like any human institution, our systems of governance are less than perfect and, more positively, capable of improvement following rational consideration. For various reasons, there are serious concerns that our systems are too focused on the immediate issues of the day and less on the variety of long-term problems that may be, or indeed are, around future corners. This report – a collaboration between the Institute for Governance and Policy Studies at Victoria University of Wellington and the Office of the Clerk of the House of Representatives – addresses this problem in terms of setting out considered policy options to make government more accountable to Parliament, and hence the people, for the quality of its long-term decision-making. The report is a welcome, timely and systematic contribution to advancing a very important discussion on improving our democracy. The Institute is delighted to be associated with it. Dr Simon Chapple Director Institute for Governance and Policy Studies 1 FORESIGHT, INSIGHT AND OVERSIGHT: ENHANCING LONG-TERM GOVERNANCE THROUGH BETTER PARLIAMENTARY SCRUTINY Contents Foreword 1 Brief biographical notes 7 Acknowledgements 8 Executive summary 10 PART 1: INTRODUCTION 19 Chapter 1: The quest for better parliamentary scrutiny of long-term governance 20 Terminology – some clarifications 20 The rationale for this report 24 Assessing long-term governance and stewardship 26 The structure of this report 27 Conclusion 27 Chapter 2: Research methods 28 Introduction 28 Project team 28 Research questions 28 Data gathering, analysis and review 29 Literature review 29 Interviews and meetings 30 Case studies 31 Survey of legislatures in Commonwealth jurisdictions 31 Feedback and peer review 31 Evaluation of method 32 PART 2: ANALYSIS 33 Chapter 3: Assessing long-term governance and stewardship 34 Introduction 34 Ethical and legal basis for safeguarding future interests 34 Challenge of protecting long-term interests in a democracy 36 Assessing the quality of long-term governmental performance 39 New Zealand’s current policy framework for long-term governance 48 Conclusion 56 Chapter 4: The evolving policy context and the implications for parliamentary scrutiny of long-term governance 57 Introduction 57 A wellbeing approach and reforms to the Public Finance Act 58 State Sector Act reform 59 An independent fiscal institution 60 Other legislative and non-legislative proposals of relevance to parliamentary scrutiny 60 2 Chapter 5: Assessing parliamentary scrutiny of long-term governance 62 Introduction 62 Accountability and scrutiny 62 Layers of scrutiny 63 Barriers and challenges to scrutiny of long-term governance 70 Indicators 72 Assessing scrutiny of long-term governance in New Zealand 76 Legislating 77 Providing a government 82 Scrutinising and controlling government 84 Representing the public 109 Conclusion 113 Chapter 6: Overseas approaches, models and practices 114 Introduction 114 Long-term scrutiny arrangements in overseas parliaments 115 General observations 115 Legislature’s scrutiny of long-term governance – six approaches 117 Finland’s Committee for the Future 118 Scotland’s Futures Forum 121 Israel’s Knesset Commission for Future Generations (2001–2006) 126 The Future Generations Commissioner for Wales (2016–) and the Well-being of Future Generations (Wales) Act 2015 128 The provision of analytical, research and advisory services for legislatures 135 Lessons for New Zealand 137 Chapter 7: Framing the way forward: Options for reform 139 Introduction 139 Perspectives of interviewees 139 Developing an agenda for reform – important considerations 145 Options for reform 146 PART 3: PARLIAMENTARY REFORM 151 Chapter 8: Enhancing parliamentary scrutiny of long-term governance via changes to the Standing Orders 152 Introduction 152 Reforming the current structure and functions of select committees 153 Encouraging select committees to undertake particular kinds of long-term scrutiny 162 Other changes to enhance the quality of parliamentary scrutiny 165 Changes to encourage greater consideration of long-term matters by the House 168 Enhancing the engagement of parliamentarians on long-term issues 169 3 FORESIGHT, INSIGHT AND OVERSIGHT: ENHANCING LONG-TERM GOVERNANCE THROUGH BETTER PARLIAMENTARY SCRUTINY Chapter 9: Strengthening advice to Parliament on long-term governance 170 Introduction 170 The importance of evidence and independent advice 170 Options for enhancing Parliament’s access to evidence and independent advice 171 Conclusion 175 PART 4: BROADER REFORM OPTIONS AND CONCLUSIONS 177 Chapter 10: Wider policy and constitutional reforms 178 Policy reforms 178 Constitutional and quasi-constitutional reforms 182 Chapter 11: Conclusions 186 The quality of long-term governance matters … 186 Long-term interests are often at risk from short-term political pressures … 186 Parliament plays a vital role in holding governments to account for their performance, including their long-term governance … 186 Parliamentary scrutiny of long-term governance in New Zealand is not systematic or robust … 187 Many options are available to improve parliamentary scrutiny of long-term governance … 188 A learning culture is imperative 188 BIBLIOGRAPHY AND APPENDICES 189 Selected bibliography 190 Appendices 197 Appendix 1: Policy development – parliamentary scrutiny of lon-term governance and stewardship 198 Appendix 2: Interviews and meetings 200 Appendix 3: Parliamentary Library research request response: Parliamentary scrutiny of government future thinking in Scandinavia, Ireland and the United Kingdom 202 Appendix 4: Parliamentary Library research request response: Auditing of long-term governance and policy in Canada, Australia, Ireland and the United Kingdom 212 Appendix 5: Parliamentary Library research request response: Parliamentary scrutiny of government future thinking in Germany 216 Appendix 6: Parliamentary Library research request response about statutory requirements imposing future-oriented obligations on central and local government 220 Appendix 7: Commonwealth Parliamentary Association (CPA) survey 223 Appendix 8: Summary of the Commonwealth Parliamentary Association survey responses 225 4 Tables Table E.1: Options for enhancing parliamentary scrutiny of long-term governance 15 Table 3.1: Criteria for assessing anticipatory governance – with application in the context of parliamentary scrutiny of the executive 43 Table 3.2: New Zealand: policy initiatives in recent decades to enhance prudent long-term governance 48 Table 5.1: The multiple layers of parliamentary scrutiny 63 Table 5.2: Indicators for evaluating parliamentary scrutiny of long-term governance 75 Table 5.3: Summary assessment of current performance against relevant indicators – legislative function 82 Table 5.4: Summary assessment of current performance against relevant indicators – providing a government 84 Table 5.5: Summary assessment of current performance against relevant indicators – financial scrutiny 94 Table 5.6: Summary assessment of current performance against relevant indicators – briefings and inquiries 100 Table 5.7: Summary assessment of current performance against relevant indicators – consideration of reports of Officers of Parliament 105 Table 5.8: Summary assessment of current performance against relevant indicators – international treaty examinations 108 Table 5.9: Summary assessment of current performance against relevant indicators – representing the public 112 Table 7.1: Options for enhancing parliamentary scrutiny of long-term governance 147 Boxes Box 5.1: Inquiries – case studies 97 Box 6.1: Summary of CPA survey results 116 Box 8.1: Possible amendments to the Standing Orders for the establishment of a specialist function of long-term governance for an existing subject select committee 156 Box 8.2: Possible amendments to the Standing Orders for the establishment