POLITICAL REPORT POLITICAL REPORT A MONTHLY POLL COMPILATION Volume 15, Issue 11 • December 2019 IN THIS ISSUE: Brits on Their Upcoming Election (pp. 1–3) | US Ideological Shifts and Their Political Implications (pp. 4–7) | The Federal Reserve (p. 8) | Ordinary Life: Work and Travel (p. 9) ThePOLITICAL 2019 British General Election REPORT Americans are focusing intently on their own 2020 election contest, but a consequential election will take place in Great Britain in a few days. Recent polls give the Conservatives a solid lead. Most think the election will be about Brexit, and 70 percent have Brexit fatigue. Q: If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? National (GB) ------------------------------------------- By 2017 Vote ------------------------------------------- Nov. 28–29 Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats Would vote POLITICAL REPORT Conservative 43% 86% 8% 15% Labour 34 4 73 16 Liberal Democrats 13 5 10 67 SNP 4 0 2 0 Plaid Cymru 0 0 1 0 Brexit Party 2 3 2 0 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. The results shown here are what YouGov calls the “headline voting intention.” The results are weighted by likelihood to vote, and they exclude those who would not vote, don’t know, or refused to answer. Source: YouGov UK/The Sunday Times, latest that of November 28–29, 2019. Q: Do you think this election will end up being . ? Election will be mostly about Brexit 84% Mostly about other issues 5 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Source: YouGov UK/The Sunday Times, October 31–November 1, 2019. Q: Do you think you have ‘Brexit fatigue’? Have Brexit fatigue 70% Do not 19 Don’t know 11 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Source: YouGov UK, October 29, 2019. (Continued on the next page) AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, senior editor Claude Aubert, designer Eleanor O’Neil, editor Pamela Larkin, intern Jacqueline Clemence, associate editor The survey results reported here were obtained in part from searches of the AEI poll archive, the iPoll Databank, and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author[s]. AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org Party Leaders’ Ratings There is widespread dissatisfaction with the way most party leaders in Britain are doing their jobs. The Ipsos MORI survey found Jeremy Corbyn has received a lower net satisfaction rating (-60 in September and again in October) than any other leader of an opposition party since the survey began asking about party leaders in 1977. Around a quarter of Brits say they don’t trust any of the party leaders on the major issues, but a greater share trust Boris Johnson than trust the other leaders on Brexit, the economy, and law and order. Corbyn does best on the National Health Service. Q: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way _____ is running the country/doing his/her job as Prime Minister/ leader of the Labour Party/leader of the Liberal Democrats/leader of the Brexit Party? Satisfied Dissatisfied 19% The government 74% 46 Boris Johnson (PM) 44 15 Jeremy Corbyn (Lab) 75 29 Jo Swinson (LibDem) 41 29 Nigel Farage (Brexit) 51 Responses of Responses of Conservative Party supporters Labour Party supporters Satisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing Satisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as Prime Minister 80% his job as Labour Party leader 46% Dissatisfied 9 Dissatisfied 49 Note: Survey of adults in Great Britain. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, October 25–28, 2019. Q: Which of the following party leaders would you trust more on the issue of . ? Brexit The National Health Service Boris Johnson 36% 25% Jeremy Corbyn 12 30 Jo Swinson 15 6 None of them 26 23 The economy Law and order Boris Johnson 34% 34% Jeremy Corbyn 17 17 Jo Swinson 7 6 None of them 25 23 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Source: YouGov UK/The Sunday Times, October 31–November 1, 2019. (Continued on the next page) v AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 2 Opinion on Brexit When Brits are asked whether they identify with a political party, 33 percent say they do not. Their identity as a “remainer” or a “leaver” on the question of Brexit is much stronger than their identity with a political party— 51 percent identify very strongly with their stance on Brexit, compared to 15 percent who identify very strongly with a political party. Brexit tops other issues as the most important issue facing the country, and only 18 percent think the government is handling it well. Q: Generally speaking, do you . ? Think of yourself as . Conservative 26% Labour 23 Liberal Democrat 7 Brexit Party 5 Green 3 Think of yourself as a . Leaver 41% Remainer 45 Neither/Don’t know 15 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Of those who identify with a political party, 15 percent do so very strongly. Of those who identify as a leaver or remainer on the Brexit question, 51 percent do so very strongly. Source: YouGov UK, November 7–11, 2019. Q: Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Britain leaving the EU 66% Health 41 The economy 28 The environment 26 Crime 24 Immigration and Asylum 22 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Not all issues shown. Source: YouGov UK/The Times, November 11–12, 2019. Q: How well or badly do you think the government are Q: In hindsight, do you think . ? (sic) doing at handling Britain’s exit from the European Britain was right to vote to leave Union? the European Union 41% Government is handling Britain’s exit Wrong 47 from the European Union well 18% Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Since June 2018 Badly 74 when people were evenly divided on this question, more peo- Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. ple in each weekly poll have answered “wrong” than “right.” Source: YouGov UK/The Times, November 11–12, 2019. Source: YouGov UK/The Times, November 11–12, 2019. The 2020 British election will be the third national election in four years. The last general election was in June 2017. A study released in October by the British Election Study team found that nearly half the country (49 percent) voted for different parties across the three elections from 2010 to 2017. The British Election Study, known as the leading survey of voting patterns in the UK, notes that voters have become “less loyal or partisan,” and it argues that voters are “hugely influenced by unique events or issues” it describes as “elec- toral shocks.” The team argues, as the above poll results attest, that the “Brexit shock [is] still ongoing.” AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 3 Ideological Shifts In a question asked since 1974, the NORC General Social Survey shows that self-identified Democrats have become more liberal and Republicans have become more conservative over time. As the graph below shows, more than half of Republicans have described their views as conservative since the early 1990s. In 2018, 70 percent gave that response. In a first for NORC and Gallup, a majority of Democrats called themselves liberals in 2018 polling. Given the discussions of the Democrats’ presidential field, we focus in the next few pages on ideological similari- ties and differences among Democrats. Q: We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. I’m going to show you a 7-point scale on which the political views that people might hold are arranged from extremely liberal—point 1 —to extremely conservative— point 7. Where would you place yourself on this scale? 100 90 80 Republicans identifying as conservative 70% 70 60 54% 43% 50 40 30 32% Democrats identifying as liberal 20 10 0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Note: Liberal combines points 1, 2, and 3 on a 7-point scale; conservative combines points 5, 6, and 7. Source: NORC, latest that of 2018. Q: How would you describe your political views—very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal? -------------------------------------------------------------—------------------- 2018 average responses ----------------------------------—---------------------------------------------- Democrats’ responses Republicans’ responses Conservative 13% 73% Moderate 34 22 Liberal 51 4 Note: Conservative equates to “very conservative” and “conservative” combined. Liberal equates to “liberal” and “very liberal” combined. Source: Gallup, combined data from surveys conducted in 2018. (Continued on the next page) v AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 4 Ideological Shifts among Democrats Some Democrats have been more willing to embrace the liberal label than others. The Gallup data here show the percentages of different Democratic subgroups that identified as politically liberal in two six-year periods, 2001 to 2006 and 2013 to 2018. All groups have become more liberal over time. The 2013 to 2018 data show white Democrats are more likely to call themselves liberal than are black or Hispanic Democrats. Young Democrats are more likely than their elders to describe their views as liberal, though the gap between the youngest and oldest age groups has narrowed.