POLITICAL REPORT

POLITICAL REPORT A MONTHLY POLL COMPILATION Volume 15, Issue 11 • December 2019

IN THIS ISSUE: Brits on Their Upcoming Election (pp. 1–3) | US Ideological Shifts and Their Political Implications (pp. 4–7) | The Federal Reserve (p. 8) | Ordinary Life: Work and Travel (p. 9)

ThePOLITICAL 2019 British General Election REPORT Americans are focusing intently on their own 2020 election contest, but a consequential election will take place in Great Britain in a few days. Recent polls give the Conservatives a solid lead. Most think the election will be about , and 70 percent have Brexit fatigue. Q: If there were a general election held tomorrow, which party would you vote for? National (GB) ------By 2017 Vote ------Nov. 28–29 Conservative Labour Liberal Democrats Would vote POLITICAL REPORT Conservative 43% 86% 8% 15% Labour 34 4 73 16 Liberal Democrats 13 5 10 67 SNP 4 0 2 0 0 0 1 0 Brexit Party 2 3 2 0 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. The results shown here are what YouGov calls the “headline voting intention.” The results are weighted by likelihood to vote, and they exclude those who would not vote, don’t know, or refused to answer. Source: YouGov UK/The Sunday Times, latest that of November 28–29, 2019.

Q: Do you think this election will end up being . . . ? Election will be mostly about Brexit 84% Mostly about other issues 5 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Source: YouGov UK/The Sunday Times, October 31–November 1, 2019.

Q: Do you think you have ‘Brexit fatigue’? Have Brexit fatigue 70% Do not 19 Don’t know 11 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Source: YouGov UK, October 29, 2019. (Continued on the next page)

AEI POLITICAL REPORT CONTRIBUTORS Karlyn Bowman, senior editor Claude Aubert, designer Eleanor O’Neil, editor Pamela Larkin, intern Jacqueline Clemence, associate editor The survey results reported here were obtained in part from searches of the AEI poll archive, the iPoll Databank, and other resources provided by the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at Cornell University. The American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research (AEI) is a nonpartisan, nonprofit, 501(c)(3) educational organization and does not take institutional positions on any issues. The views expressed here are those of the author[s].

AMERICAN ENTERPRISE INSTITUTE 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org Party Leaders’ Ratings There is widespread dissatisfaction with the way most party leaders in Britain are doing their jobs. The Ipsos MORI survey found has received a lower net satisfaction rating (-60 in September and again in October) than any other leader of an opposition party since the survey began asking about party leaders in 1977. Around a quarter of Brits say they don’t trust any of the party leaders on the major issues, but a greater share trust than trust the other leaders on Brexit, the economy, and law and order. Corbyn does best on the National Health Service. Q: Are you satisfied or dissatisfied with the way _____ is running the country/doing his/her job as Prime Minister/ leader of the Labour Party/leader of the Liberal Democrats/leader of the Brexit Party? Satisfied Dissatisfied 19% The government 74% 46 Boris Johnson (PM) 44 15 Jeremy Corbyn (Lab) 75 29 Jo Swinson (LibDem) 41 29 Nigel Farage (Brexit) 51

Responses of Responses of Conservative Party supporters Labour Party supporters Satisfied with the way Boris Johnson is doing Satisfied with the way Jeremy Corbyn is doing his job as Prime Minister 80% his job as Labour Party leader 46% Dissatisfied 9 Dissatisfied 49 Note: Survey of adults in Great Britain. Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor, October 25–28, 2019.

Q: Which of the following party leaders would you trust more on the issue of . . . ? Brexit The National Health Service Boris Johnson 36% 25% Jeremy Corbyn 12 30 Jo Swinson 15 6 None of them 26 23 The economy Law and order Boris Johnson 34% 34% Jeremy Corbyn 17 17 Jo Swinson 7 6 None of them 25 23 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Source: YouGov UK/The Sunday Times, October 31–November 1, 2019. (Continued on the next page)

v

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 2 Opinion on Brexit When Brits are asked whether they identify with a political party, 33 percent say they do not. Their identity as a “remainer” or a “leaver” on the question of Brexit is much stronger than their identity with a political party— 51 percent identify very strongly with their stance on Brexit, compared to 15 percent who identify very strongly with a political party. Brexit tops other issues as the most important issue facing the country, and only 18 percent think the government is handling it well. Q: Generally speaking, do you . . . ? Think of yourself as . . . Conservative 26% Labour 23 Liberal Democrat 7 Brexit Party 5 Green 3 Think of yourself as a . . . Leaver 41% Remainer 45 Neither/Don’t know 15 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Of those who identify with a political party, 15 percent do so very strongly. Of those who identify as a leaver or remainer on the Brexit question, 51 percent do so very strongly. Source: YouGov UK, November 7–11, 2019.

Q: Which of the following do you think are the most important issues facing the country at this time? Britain leaving the EU 66% Health 41 The economy 28 The environment 26 Crime 24 Immigration and Asylum 22 Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Not all issues shown. Source: YouGov UK/, November 11–12, 2019.

Q: How well or badly do you think the government are Q: In hindsight, do you think . . . ? (sic) doing at handling Britain’s exit from the European Britain was right to vote to leave Union? the European Union 41% Government is handling Britain’s exit Wrong 47 from the European Union well 18% Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. Since June 2018 Badly 74 when people were evenly divided on this question, more peo- Note: Online survey of adults in Great Britain. ple in each weekly poll have answered “wrong” than “right.” Source: YouGov UK/The Times, November 11–12, 2019. Source: YouGov UK/The Times, November 11–12, 2019.

The 2020 British election will be the third national election in four years. The last general election was in June 2017. A study released in October by the British Election Study team found that nearly half the country (49 percent) voted for different parties across the three elections from 2010 to 2017. The British Election Study, known as the leading survey of voting patterns in the UK, notes that voters have become “less loyal or partisan,” and it argues that voters are “hugely influenced by unique events or issues” it describes as “elec- toral shocks.” The team argues, as the above poll results attest, that the “Brexit shock [is] still ongoing.”

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 3 Ideological Shifts In a question asked since 1974, the NORC General Social Survey shows that self-identified Democrats have become more liberal and Republicans have become more conservative over time. As the graph below shows, more than half of Republicans have described their views as conservative since the early 1990s. In 2018, 70 percent gave that response. In a first for NORC and Gallup, a majority of Democrats called themselves liberals in 2018 polling. Given the discussions of the Democrats’ presidential field, we focus in the next few pages on ideological similari- ties and differences among Democrats. Q: We hear a lot of talk these days about liberals and conservatives. I’m going to show you a 7-point scale on which the political views that people might hold are arranged from extremely liberal—point 1 —to extremely conservative— point 7. Where would you place yourself on this scale?

100 90 80 Republicans identifying as conservative 70% 70 60 54% 43% 50 40 30 32% Democrats identifying as liberal 20 10 0 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

Note: Liberal combines points 1, 2, and 3 on a 7-point scale; conservative combines points 5, 6, and 7. Source: NORC, latest that of 2018.

Q: How would you describe your political views—very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal? ------—------2018 average responses ------—------Democrats’ responses Republicans’ responses Conservative 13% 73% Moderate 34 22 Liberal 51 4 Note: Conservative equates to “very conservative” and “conservative” combined. Liberal equates to “liberal” and “very liberal” combined. Source: Gallup, combined data from surveys conducted in 2018. (Continued on the next page)

v

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 4 Ideological Shifts among Democrats Some Democrats have been more willing to embrace the liberal label than others. The Gallup data here show the percentages of different Democratic subgroups that identified as politically liberal in two six-year periods, 2001 to 2006 and 2013 to 2018. All groups have become more liberal over time. The 2013 to 2018 data show white Democrats are more likely to call themselves liberal than are black or Hispanic Democrats. Young Democrats are more likely than their elders to describe their views as liberal, though the gap between the youngest and oldest age groups has narrowed. There have long been differences in liberal self-identification among Democrats by levels of formal education, and they remain robust today. Q: How would you describe your political views—very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal? ------————------Democrats who identify as liberal ------—————------

2001–2006 2013–2018 average average &$ All Democrats 32% 46%

y Raethniity&# White 34 54 Black 25 33 Hispanic&" 29 38

y ge &! 18–29 38 49 30–49 33 48

50–64% 33 43 65+ 25 43

y ender$ Men 31 44 Women 33 47 # y duation HS or less 22 32 Some college" 33 45 College grad 42 58 Postgrad 52 65 !

Note: Liberal equates to “liberal” and “very liberal” combined. Source: Gallup, combined data from surveys conducted in each six-year period, 2001–2006 and 2013–2018.

As Gallup notes in its comprehensive release on shifts in Democratic Party ideology, changes have occurred in the makeup of Democrats as a whole that may help explain the shift to greater liberalism. More Democrats have college degrees than in the past—35 percent in 2013 to 2018, compared to 27 percent in 2001 to 2006. Democrats with college degrees are more liberal than those with less formal education.

(Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 5 Where Liberal and Conservative Democrats Agree Today; Where They Don’t In many areas, liberal, moderate, and conservative Democrats are in substantial agreement. Solid majorities of all three groups think corporations pay too little in taxes, feel gun control laws should be more strict, believe human activities are the main cause of global warming, and approve of labor unions. It is on social and cultural issues where we see substantial disagreement. Eighty-one percent of liberal Democrats believe marijuana should be made legal; 44 percent of conservative Democrats feel that way. Fifty-five percent of liberal Democrats believe abortion should be legal for any reason; compared to 23 percent of conservative Democrats.

------——------Areas of Agreement among Democrats ------——------Corporations pay too little in taxes Prefer that gun laws be more strict Responses of Liberal Dems. 88% 86% Moderate Dems. 80 77 Conservative Dems. 71 73

Human activities are the main cause of global warming Approve of labor unions Responses of Liberal Dems. 87% 84% Moderate Dems. 82 75 Conservative Dems. 69 68

------————-———-----——------Areas of Disagreement ------—————————------Marijuana should Prefer a govt.-run be made legal health care system Responses of Liberal Dems. 81% 75% Moderate Dems. 62 53 Conservative Dems. 44 42

Abortion should be legal under any circumstances Responses of Liberal Dems. 55% Moderate Dems. 35 Conservative Dems. 23

Note: Results based on combined data from surveys conducted in 2013–2018. Question wording is as follows: (1) As I read off some different groups, please tell me if you think they are paying their fair share in federal taxes, paying too much, or paying too little? (2) In general, do you feel that the laws covering the sale of firearms should be made more strict, less strict, or kept as they are now? (3) And from what you have heard or read, do you believe increases in the Earth’s temperature over the last century are due more to the effects of pollution from human activities or natural changes in the environment that are not due to human activities? (4) Do you approve or disapprove of labor unions? (5) Do you think the use of marijuana should be made legal, or not? (6) Which of the following approaches for providing health care in the United States would you prefer — a government-run health care system or a system based mostly on private health insurance? (7) Do you think abortions should be legal under any circumstances, legal only under certain circumstances, or illegal in all circumstances? Source: Gallup, 2013–2018. (Continued on the next page)

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 6 What Are the Political Implications of Democrats’ Ideological Shifts? Several Democratic Party operatives have voiced concerns recently that some of the Democratic Party’s candidates are too liberal to win a general election. While Democrats have become more liberal, preference for a moderate Democratic nominee still outweighs support for a liberal one. In a new Gallup poll, 50 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents would prefer a moderate nominee for president; 33 percent would prefer a liberal. In the CBS News Battleground Tracker poll of Democrats in 18 states, 36 percent worried that Elizabeth Warren was too liberal to defeat , and 44 percent gave that response about Bernie Sanders. Six percent said that about Joe Biden, and 17 percent about Pete Buttigieg. These concerns were also visible in two recent Iowa polls. Q: If you had to choose, would you rather see the Democrats nominate someone for president in [2008/2016/2020] who is very conservative, conservative, moderate, liberal, or very liberal? -----———— Responses of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents -----———— Nov. 2019 Dec. 2015 Dec. 2007 Prefer Democrats nominate A liberal 33% 36% 30% Moderate 50 40 48 Conservative 17 21 19 Note: Each survey asked about the nomination in the following presidential election year. In the November 2019 poll, 44 percent of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents described their own views as moderate, 41 percent as liberal, and 13 percent as conservative. Source: Gallup, latest that of November 2019.

Q: If ______becomes the Democratic nominee in 2020, do you think ______’s policy stances would be . . . ? Views of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters in 18 states Joe Biden Elizabeth Warren Too liberal to defeat Donald Trump 6% 36% Not liberal enough 31 12 About right 63 52

Bernie Sanders Pete Buttigieg Too liberal to defeat Donald Trump 44% 17% Not liberal enough 10 29 About right 46 54 Note: Online survey of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters. The CBS News/YouGov survey was conducted in 18 states expected to hold primaries or caucuses including Alabama, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, Minne- sota, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia. Source: CBS News/YouGov, November 2019. Views of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters in Iowa Biden Warren Sanders Buttigieg Too liberal to defeat Trump 8% 41% 45% 13% Not liberal enough 30 16 11 25 About right 62 43 43 62 Note: Online panel survey of Democratic and Democratic-leaning registered voters. This survey is the fifth wave of this poll. Of the 3,747 respondents in the first four waves, 503 were re-interviewed. A mid-NovemberDes Moines Register/CNN/Mediacom Iowa poll produced similar results. Among likely Democratic caucus goers there, 7 percent said Biden was too liberal, 28 percent too conserva- tive, and 55 percent about right. Those responses for Warren were 38 percent, 4 percent, and 48 percent, respectively. For Sanders they were 53 percent, 3 percent, and 37 percent, respectively, and for Buttigieg, they were 7 percent, 13 percent, and 63 percent. Source: CBS News/YouGov, November 2019.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 7 Views on the Federal Reserve In 1987, the University of Michigan’s Survey of Consumers began asking people about their levels of trust and confidence in financial institutions. Opinions about the Federal Reserve have recovered some since the 2008 financial crash, when 57 percent said they had less trust and confidence in the Federal Reserve than they had five years earlier. Thirty-six percent give that response in the October 2019 poll. Those with more trust and confi- dence have moved from 7 percent in 2008 to 14 percent now. Only 13 percent appear to share President Trump’s view that the Federal Reserve Board is currently doing a poor job. Q: The next few questions are about the trust and confidence people have in the country’s financial institutions. What about the Federal Reserve? Compared with 5 years ago, do you have a lot more confidence now, a little more confidence now, a little less confidence now, a lot less confidence now, or has your confidence in the Federal Reserve remained about the same?

100 90 80 Have less confidence in the Federal Reserve 67% 70 now than 5 years ago 60 50 49% 40 36% 30 19% About the same 20 9% 14% 10 More confidence now 0 1 3 5 7 9 991 987 989 993 995 997 999 1 201 1 1 1 1 1 1 2001 201 201 201 201 2003 2005 2007 2009

Source: University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, latest that of October 2019.

Q: Is your overall opinion of the Federal Reserve . . . ? Opinion of the Federal Reserve Very favorable 14% Mostly favorable 51 Mostly unfavorable 9 Very unfavorable 15 Source: Pew Research Center, September 2019.

Q: How would you rate the job being done by the Federal Reserve Board? Would you say . . . ? The Federal Reserve Board is doing . . . An excellent job 6% Good job 42 Only fair job 34 Poor job 13 Source: Gallup, April 2019.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 8 Ordinary Life: Work and Travel In last month’s Political Report, we looked at some aspects of ordinary life, a topic we don’t think gets enough attention from the pollsters. In this issue, we look at work and travel. In a 2019 Gallup survey, 40 percent of Americans employed full-time said they worked a 40-hour week, and 52 percent worked more, including 18 per- cent who worked 60 hours or more per week. Roughly two-thirds would prefer a four-day workweek with 10-hour days to a five-day workweek with eight-hour days. Half of Americans have a passport; 72 percent have traveled outside the country. Q: In a typical week, how many hours do you work? Responses of adults who say they work “full-time” In a typical week, work . . . Less than 40 hours 8% 40 hours 40 41–49 hours 13 50–59 hours 21 60–69 hours 11 70 hours or more 7 Note: Sample is full-time US workers. The average number of hours was 47. Source: Gallup, August 2019.

Q: Assuming you were working a full-time job and your pay would be the same in either scenario, which of the follow- ing would you prefer? Prefer a four-day work week Prefer a five-day work week Don’t with 10-hour days with 8-hour days know 67% National 21% 12% By Age Group 55 18–24 28 17 65 25–34 23 12 64 35–44 22 14 69 45–54 19 12 70 55+ 19 11 Note: Online survey. Source: YouGov, November 2019.

Q: Do you currently have a valid United States passport? Have a valid passport 50% Do not 49 Source: CBS News, September 2018.

Q: Have you ever traveled outside of the United States? Have traveled outside the US 72% Have not 27 Source: CBS News, September 2018.

AEI, 1789 Massachusetts Avenue, NW, Washington, DC 20036 • 202.862.5800 • www.aei.org 9