Journal of Public Transportation 45

Personal Public Transport in : Developments and Prospects Garry Glazebrook Booz-Allen & Hamilton (Aust) Limited , Australia Sam Subramaniam Booz-Allen & Hamilton Limited, McLean, Virginia

Abstract The environmental, social, and economic cost of current dependence is well known. But people tend to be unwilling to forgo the convenience ofprivate transport. Personal Public Transport (PPT) is a new concept combining the environmental ad­ vantages ofpublic transport with the flexibility ofthe car. The key elements ofPPT are new multi-hire modes provided by maxitaxis and taxibuses to supplement single-hire taxis and scheduled services; integration ofall modes into a single system; and provi­ sion of real-time information and booking systems enabling individual passengers to communicate with the transport system, whether they be at home, on street or in tran­ sit. This paper describes how PPTwill integrate various technologies, such as auto­ matic vehicle location systems, multi-hire dispatching systems, advanced passenger information systems, and smart card billing systems, together with some of the latest developments in Personal Public Transport.

Spring 1997 46 Journal ofPublic Transportation

While the technical aspects of PPT are expected to be solvable relatively easily, establishing a complete PPT system will require institutional and regulatory change and a willingness to innovate by both transport operators and regulators. The paper describes changes occurring in Australia in the taxi and industries and in regula­ tory arrangements that will facilitate PPT, and sets out models for establishing PPT systems. It also assesses the potential for PPT from a marketing perspective and its relationship to new developments in urban planning. The paper concludes with a prog­ nosis ofhow urban transport systems will evolve under the influence ofenvironmental pressures, social values and technological developments, and of how our cities will emerge from the mass transit and private transport eras of the past to the new era of Personal Public Transport and Personal .

Introduction Public Versus Private Transport Private provide their owners with many private mobility benefits, in­ cluding: • the convenience of traveling whenever they want, • the flexibility of traveling wherever they want, and the ability to change their destination easily, and • comfort, privacy and the ability to travel alone or with people of their choosing. In addition, the car has often been associated with status, independence, and a feeling of freedom. These mobility and other benefits have jointly under­ pinned the remarkable popularity of the car, and its current dominance of urban transport systems in many cities in the world. However, recent surveys suggest that the love affair with the car may be ending in countries such as Australia, the , and Europe, where cars are now so commonplace that they have lost much of their former mystique. A recent survey conducted in Australia found, for example, that very few people associate cars with status or sex appeal and that most are concerned with reliability and other more "mundane" qualities.

Spring 1997 Journalof PublicTransportation 47

Impresses opposite sex Refl ects importance of driver Rather use public transport Particular interest of mine Like really powerful ca rs Lots of other alt ernatives Only because I have to Appearance of car is critical Identify lots of types of car Very attached to car Only for getting around Reliability is Critical

0 20 40 60 80 100

Percent of Respondents agreeing

Figure1. Attitudesto the car: survey of Australianmotorists , 1996

For example, only 15 percentthought cars impressedthe opposite sex, while 55 percent used cars only because they had to. While the extent of the private benefits from cars may be leveling out in western countries, the concern about the public costs of car dependence contin­ ues to grow in both developed and developing countries. For example, recent

Spring /997 48 Journalof PublicTransportation

Transportstudies for Sydney(Australia's largest city) and South East (the fastestgrowing region) found that, givencurrent trends, air pollutionacci­ dents are likelyto increaserapidly, while congestion and travelingtimes were also likelyto increasedramatically.

Tobie1 PublicCosts from Private cars: Current li'ends in Sydneyand South East Queensland

Sydney SouthEast Queensland

%Increase % Increase Characteristic 1991-2016 Characteristic 1991-2011

CO2 Emissions 22 CO Emissions 51 Air QualityDecline 36 HC Emissions 27 99 FuelConsumption 23 NOX Emissions AccidentCosts 66 AccidentCosts 82

Source:NSW Government(/992); QueenslandGovernment (/996).

Publictransport, on the other hand,can be characterizedas offeringlow privatemobility benefits but at a loweroverall social cost in terms of pollution, congestion,accidents, land requirements,and environmentalimpact generally. From the perspectiveof the public,recent researchin Sydneyillustrates some of the featuresdesired in a publictransport system and the levelof satis­ factionwith currenttrain, bus and taxi services.Sydney has a populationof 3.8 millionhoused mainly in lowdensity suburbs and hasAustralia's most extensive and heavily-usedpublic transport system, including: • a large suburbanrail systemincluding 275 stationsand 1,500double­ deck rail cars, • a largenetwork of bus servicesprovided by bothpublic and privatebus operators,incorporating over 3,000 ,

Spring/997 Journalof PublicTransportation 49

• some4,300 taxis, nowmostly computer dispatched, and • an extensiveferry serviceon the Harbourand ParramattaRiver. The resultsare basedon a sampleof 300 residents(Douehi 1996) in a typi­ cal innersuburb (Leichhardt) and typical outer suburb (Fairfield) of Sydney.The samplecovers a wide rangeof incomes,household types, and lifestyles,ranging fromdouble-income, professional couples with no children(OINKS) to the typical nuclear family,and can thereforebe consideredbroadly representative of atti­ tudes in the largerAustralian cities (see Figures2 and 3). Researchin (Rearkand Associates,1995) and other cities has re­ vealedsimilar conclusions that currentpublic transport services in Australiaare not fully meetingpeople's needs. In particular: • Train servicesare not consideredsafe, particularlyat night and week­ ends.This is a particularconcern among women. • Bus servicesare generallyinadequate in terms of frequencyand reli­ abilityand also do not providefor cross-suburbanlinkages. People also complainof lack of informationabout arrival times at stops. • Taxis,while generally convenient (except at timesof peak demand),are too expensivefor mostpeople to use on a regularbasis.

100 - 80 ... >< 60 G) - 'O - ~Bus .E 40 - ... C - - ... 0 :;: 20 . D Train u ca 0 . ~ (I) ' ' ~ .Taxi :;: >- fl) a> fl) C LL: - - fl) ;; u a> a> ca C E a> 0 .2 ? 0 u, -2 0 a> '5 i= u (.) fJ) :::, 0 u ai >, :a e C" a: <( E -~ 0 > ai (.) .,. ~ as 0 a; -4 0 LL .= cu a: :s fJ) -6 0 ...

Figure2. Satisfactionby modeand characteristic(Sydney).

Spring1997 50 Journalof PublicTransportation

:;­ ! 60 a. g 50 a... C 40 ~ Leichhardt ~ en 30 D Fairfield C :; 20 C • Total e 1 o z0 0 'if!. (I) Cl> 'O Cl> C) .u,-e oiii o_ ai (I) >, C"Cl>::::J-::::J > Cl> 8 C: ::, Cl> a: Cl> > - 0 >, 0 Cl> ex ::::,8 ~e.g(D~ i a. as -o "O (.}Cl) ciiS cc u ~ Cl) 0. cu E - Cl> 8 U.= z § Cl) - a: a:

Figure3. Desired improvements topublic transport.

NewSolutions to UrbanTransport Needs Urban transportplanners thus face a challenge:how to providea better overallbalance betweenprivate benefits and publiccosts of travel.The ideal transportsystem would combinelow publiccosts with high private mobility benefits.Unfortunately, we are currentlyconstrained to tradingoff betweenpub­ lic and privatemodes, both of whichhave undesirable features. This trade-off fails to moveus towardsthe idealtransport system. New solutionsare neededthat can: • reducethe publiccosts of privatetravel, and • increasethe privatemobility benefits of publictransport. Suchstrategies could greatly increase the rangeof choiceavailable in over­ all transportterms and moveus towardsa moreideal system.

Developmentsin Urban Public Transport 111ePersonal Public Transport Concept PersonalPublic Transport (PPT) is a new approachto publictransport in­ volving:

Spring1997 Journalof PublicTransportation 51

• the introductionof new multi-hire,on-demand services provided by maxitaxis and taxibuses,with a fare structurebetween that of taxis and scheduledbus services;these new modes would be computerdispatched using the latest multi-hiredispatching software systems; • the linkingof all modes(trains, buses and otherscheduled services, and single and multi-hire,on-demand services as well as car and van pool­ ing) into a seamlessintegrated multimodal system by connectingall ve­ hicle fleets to one or more controlcenters in real time; • the provisionof real-timeinformation and bookingservices to individu­ als by a range of communicationchannels, including current telephone networks,the internet,and networksof electronicbus stops or kiosks, closelyspaced throughout the urban area; and • the use of contactlesssmart cards and customeraccounts to providean integratedfare collectionand distributionsystem, which will eventu­ ally dispensewith the need for cash-basedticketing systems. The benefits from introductionof a full PPT systeminclude: • Increasedchoice and affordability-Theneed for this is illustratedin Figure4, which showsthe currentlimited range of choicesavailable (with taxi fares typicallyfour or more times more expensivethan bus or rail fares for a typicalurban trip), togetherwith the newmaxi taxi and taxibusfares (expected to be in the order of 70 percentand 55 percentof taxi fares, respectively). Thus, the new modeswill allowcustomers a meaningfulrange of traveling options in terms of fares and levelsof service. In particular,on-demand, any­ where-to-anywhereservices will be availableat aroundhalf the fare of current taxis. • Increasedconvenience-PPT will increaseconvenience by: • allowingpeople to becomeaccount customers of the public transport system, paying all fares by smart card or by account and receiving periodicaccounts as happensfor electricity,gas or telephonecustom­ ers;

Spring1997 52 Journalof PublicTransportation

Fare

$7.00 ------$6.00 $5.00 $4.00 $3.00 $2.00 $1.00 $0.00 Taxi Maxitaxi Taxibus Bus

Figure4. Increasingthe range of choice in fare structures.

• providingreal-time arrival information of busesat all bus stops-this will overcomeone of the key disadvantagesof the bus systemsin the eyes of the public;and • makinginformation on all modesavailable through the one systemso that people can make an effectivechoice between modes or make a journey involvingmore than one mode.In particular,the networkof electronicbus stops will effectivelyintegrate scheduled and on-de­ mand servicesin space and time. Researchin Perth and Sydney,for example,showed that less than 5 percentof bus stops were located close to public telephonesand vice versa; this means that a person currentlyhas to choosewhether to wait at a bus stop (withno reliable informationas to whetherthey've just missedthe bus or if anotherone is coming),or walkdown the street( and risk missingthe bus) to find a pay phoneto call a taxi. • /11creasedsafety and security-The use of computerdispatching, book­ ing systems,and AVI systems means that people will be ableto bookconnecting maxitaxior taxibusservices while on a trainor expressbus, to take themthe last few kilometershome or from home to the stationor bus. This will reduce the need to wait for an uncertainbus connectionand increasethe feelingof security

Spring /997 Journalof PublicTransportation 53 in travelingby trainin particular.Trips booked on the systemwill also be logged on computer,providing increased security for both passengerand driver. • Increasedefficiency-PPT will improvethe efficiencyof existingpub­ .lietransport services: • Rail and expressbus systemswill be able to utilizePPT to widen the catchmentareas of theirstations, improving overall patronage. • Bus operatorswill benefitfrom the provisionof real-timearrival data at all bus stopsand will be ableto rationalizetheir operationsby using taxibusesfor the lowerdensity traffic and focusingscheduled services on routeswith sufficientpatronage. • Taxi operatorswill be able to providemaxitaxi services using 6-12 seat vehiclesand their currentbooking systems, thus extendingtheir marketand bettermatching surges in demand( e.g., on Fridaynights or afterrain) through shifting some of the 4-6 seatvehicles between single and multiplehire modes. In addition,a proportionof vehiclesand driverswill be able to switchbe­ tween courier (parcel express)services and multi-hirepassenger services de­ pending on the time of day and business,thus makingmore efficient use of vehicles,drivers and controlsystems.

FeasibilityStudies A numberof pre-feasibilityand feasibilitystudies into PPT havenow been carried out in Australia,in Perth, ,and Sydney (see, for example, Glazebrook1995; Glazebrook, Middleton, and Ratcliffe1994). Key conclusions of these studiesinclude the following. Technology The technologyneeded for establishinga PPT systemincludes: • AVIsystems (e.g., GPS-based systems) • m_ulti-hiredispatch software systems • automaticbooking and inquirysystems • inexpensivePPT stop facilitiesor kiosks • mobiledata terminalsand radioequipment on vehicles

Spring1997 54 Journalof PublicTransportation

All of these systemsare now in use in Australiaand in many other coun­ tries. The remainingrequirement is to completea fully-integratedsystem, in­ cludingthe integrationof existingmodes and operatorsand the provisionof new modes,together with an extensivesystem of PPTstops to makeautomatic book­ ings simpleand convenient. MarketDemand Thereis likelyto be a significantnew demand for publictransport if a PPT systemwere introduced,even in areaswith high currentcar ownership( see be­ low). Performanceofthe Vehicle Reefs Simulationstudies undertaken by CSIROusing the LitresModel (Rawling, Smith and Davidson,1995) indicates that multi-hiringcan produceefficiency gains (measuredby effectivepassenger-km per driver/vehiclehour) of 60-100 percent,compared with single-hire taxis. This should enable realistic unsubsidized fares of 65-75 percentof taxi fares for maxitaxiservices and 50-60 percentfor taxibusservices. However, multi-hire, on-demand services on an anywhere-any­ wherebasis cannotbe providedat currentbus fares (whichare typically20-30 percentof taxi fares in Australia). The simulationsalso showedthat withrealistic vehicle numbers (matching the anticipateddemand), average wait timeswould be: • approximately5.5 minutesfor taxis • approximately7 minutesfor maxitaxis • approximatelyIO minutes for taxibuses Thesewere considered acceptable by the public,as werethe averagespeeds and deviationsfor multi-hireservices ( deviations averaged 20-25 percent from shortestroute and were controlledbelow 30 percentfor maxitaxis,and 60 per­ cent for taxibusesby the computerdispatching system). FinancialFeasibility Overall,the cost of establishinga suitablepilot in Australianconditions shouldbe approximately$8-1 Om (US $6.2-$8m) for the electronicbus stop net-

Spring/997 Journalof PublicTransportation 55 work (300-500stops), togetherwith on-vehicleequipment and control center. Additionalcosts would be requiredfor coveringpossible demand shortfalls dur­ ing the start-upphase. It is assumedthat the operatorswould provide their own vehicle fleets. The financialfeasibility suggested that a PPT system could be establishedto run with no ongoingsubsidies other than any specific user-side subsidies(e.g., for pensionersor schoolchildren), although it wouldbe prefer­ able to launcha pilot projectin an area with sufficienttrip densityand expand from there. InstitutionalIssues There are a number of ways in which PPT could be introduced,ranging from a fully publicly-owned-and-runsystem to a fully privately-ownedsystem. One optionwould be for the establishmentof a joint venture companyto own and operatethe controlcenter and networkof communicationsystems ( e.g., PPT stops), with that companycontracting with bus and taxi operatorsto provide certainnumbers of vehiclesand driversfor multi-hireoperations as well as real­ time data on all their operations.Local governmentcould play a key role in brokeringa deal betweenthe variousparties and, indeed,in helpingto coverthe cost of some of the in-groundfacilities (in much the same way it funds traffic managementand local road infrastructure). MarketResearch A number of market researchstudies have also been undertakeninto the publicreaction to the PPTconcept in Australia(Douehi 1997; Reark and Associ­ ates 1995).These indicatethat: • The publicreact favorablyto the PPT concept,in particularto: - its flexibilityand abilityto matchtheir individualtravel needs, - the proposedpayment systems ( accounts and smart cards), - the provisionof real-timetravel information at bus stops, - the abilityto link on-demandand rail services,and - the ability to providefor cross-suburban,shopping, recreational and other trips for whichconventional public transport (trains and buses) are not alwayssuitable.

Spring1997 56 Journalof PublicTransportation

• PPT on-demandmodes are likelyto be used more for non-worktrips (where they couldcapture a modeshare of around8-12 percent) than for worktrips (wherethey mightonly account for 2-3 percent). • On the fare structureslikely to proverealistic (see above),the shareof total on-demandtravel is likelyto be approximately20 percenttaxi, 40 percentmaxitaxi, and 40 percenttaxibus. • PPT could reducethe need for a secondcar (and, in some cases,for a first car). • PPT was particularlywell-received by olderpeople, women, and teen­ agers( whose travel needs are not alwayswell catered for at present)and was more likelyto be usedby whitecollar than blue collarworkers.

Implicationsof IntroducingPPT The introductionof new, continuous,multi-hire systems (maxitaxis and taxibuses) would have substantialbenefits to the public,particularly for cross suburbantrips for whichcurrent public transport alternatives are not alwayscon­ venient. For example,research into travel patterns in SouthEast Queensland(SEQ, Australia'sfastest-growing urban area) reveals that: • Only 10 percentof motorizedtrips in SEQ are to or from the Central BusinessDistrict (CBD); IO percent are to or fromother centers; and 80 percentof trips are "anywhere-anywhere." • Publictransport has a currentmarket share of 22 percentfor CBD-ori­ ented trips, but only 4 percentof trips to other centersor anywhere­ anywheretrips. • The averagecar-based trip is around5 km. • A typical5 km non-CBD-boundtrip in the inner suburbsof (the capitalof Queenslandand largestcity in South-EastQueensland) takes50 minutesby publictransport (including walking, waiting, trans­ fer and in-vehicletime) and costs$2.25, while the taxi alternativetakes 16 minutes(including waiting) but costs$8.50. These are currentlythe onlynon-car alternatives (see Table 2).

Spring1997 Journalof PublicTransportation 57

Table2 Analysisof TypicalInner-Suburb Cross-Suburban Trips in Brisbane

TypicalTrip easel Casel Case3 Case4 Case5 Case6 Avg Crow-Flies Distance(km) 3.63 2.75 5.75 3.75 5.75 5.50 4.52 TotalTimes: PublicTransport 55.2 55.0 49.0 48.2 50.5 43.5 50.2 Taxi 12.0 21.0 15.0 12.0 16.0 18.0 15.7

Fares: PublicTransport $1.40 $3.00 $2.80 $2.00 $1.70 $2.60 $2.25 Taxi $6.50 $12.10 $8.00 $6.40 $8.10 $9.75 $8.48

By using a mixtureof taxis and regularpublic transport, passengers could, in effect,have otheralternatives (e.g., a modehalfway betweentaxi and public transport). However,maxitaxis and taxibusescould significantlyimprove the range and cost-effectivenessof the currentoptions. For example,on an averagebasis, they could reduce the cost of a typical cross-suburbantrip (for a given time budget)by 17-27percent, or the timerequired for a givencost by 20-25percent (seeTable 3 and Figure5). Prospects ImplementingPPT The biggestdifficulty in introducinga full PPT systemis the need to inte­ grate all operatorsin real timeand to get cooperationof both bus and taxi indus­ tries, whichare traditionalrivals. The situationis furthercomplicated in Austra­ lia by the currentfranchising-out process involving the breakupof previousgov­ ernment-runmonopoly bus services,a processwhich is occurringin , ,and Perthat present.

Spring1997 58 Journalof PublicTransportation

Table3 Estimatedlravel Times and Fares for New On-Demand Modes

TypicalTrip Case/ Case2 Case3 Case4 Case5 Case6 Avg

TotalTimes: Maxitaxi 21.0 32.3 24.8 21.0 26.0 28.5 25.6 TaxiBus 24.9 37.5 29.1 24.9 30.5 33.3 30.0

Fares: Maxitaxi $4.23 $7.87 $5.20 $4.16 $5.27 $6.34 $5.51 TaxiBus $3.25 $6.05 $4.00 $3.20 $4.05 $4.88 $4.24

60 ------Public Transport Equivalent

CD Cost Options E i= 40 ... 0 Equivalent 0 ~ Q ~ Time Options L 3 0 ..a,------+------ta.: 0 0 Q 'i.. 20 - 0 ~ Taxi 10 -

0 -f------+------+-----__.._---+-_.....__...... , ______, $0.00 $2.00 $4.00 $6.00 $8.00 $10.00 Cost

Figure5. Time-costtradeoffs-current and future. Typical5km cross-suburb trip in Brisbane.

Spring 1997 Journalof PublicTransportation 59

Accordingly,in 1995the FederalGovernment, under its Greenhouse21 C program,established an InnovativeUrban Public Transport Program to help en­ couragethe establishmentof projectssuch as PPT.Calls for expressionsof inter­ est in a national PPT project were made in December1995, and positive re­ sponseswere put forwardin Januaryby: • WesternAustralia (2 submissions), • the AustralianCapital Territory, • the SouthAustralian Government, in conjunctionwith Local Govern­ ment and others,and • six Local GovernmentAuthorities in NSW. Unfortunately,following a changeof NationalGovernment in the March 1996election, the programwas discontinuedbefore any funds were allocated. Prospectsin Australia Accordingly,no completePPT systemhas yet been developedor installed in Australia.However, various projects or initiativesare underway that include particularcomponents of an ultimatePPT system.For example: • In Perth,a CentralArea Transit System (CATS) has commenced,featur­ ing new low-floormidi-buses and the use of real-timearrival time infor­ mation at specially-equippedbus stops in the CBD.This system uses GPS satellitetechnology to trackthe vehiclesand a computersystem to estimatethe arrivalof the busesat the next stop. • In Brisbane,the BrisbaneCity Council is installingtransponders on more thanl 80 buses to enablethem to triggerbus priorityat traffic lights on WaterworksRoad and to providelocation information for real-timear­ rival time data at selectedbus stops. • Also in Brisbane,the StateDepartment of Transportlaunched its Inte­ gratedRegional Transport Plan for SouthEast Queensland a few months ago. Among other initiatives,this includesmajor plans for a busway networkand plans for developingan integratedmultimodal approach to publictransport incorporating Personal Public Transport.

Spring/997 60 Journalof PublicTransportation

• In Canberra,Action Buses is to sell its existingfleet and lease them back.This will allowthem to introduceminibuses into the fleet.There are also plans for runningon-demand services. • ManyLocal Councils in the Sydneyarea are takingsteps to encourage improvedor innovativepublic transport; for example: - LeichhardtCouncil has includedcontributions for publictransport in its latest draft Section94 plan, whileLeichhardt and FairfieldCoun­ cils havefunded market research into the adequacyof currentservices and the waysin whichthis couldbe improved. - Willoughbyand othercouncils are installingparking meters and plan to use some of the revenuefor improvingpublic transport. - Councilssuch as Manly and Sutherlandhave been arguingfor im­ provedservices in their areas. • The taxi industryis continuingto installGPS satellitereceivers in its fleets-many fleetsare nowfitted. To date, this has beenused mainlyto providean emergencylocation system to improvedriver safety, but some companiesare experimenting with using the locationinformation to track vehicleson a regularbasis to aid in dispatchingthe nearest available taxi, thus improvingcustomer service and fleet utilization.Many taxi operatorsare also diversifyingtheir fleets; in Queensland,already 10 percent of the vehiclesare multi-purpose(5-12 seaters), providinga basis for introducingmulti-hire services in the future. • Adelaidehas recentlydecided to proceedwith the MultifunctionPolis projectin the northernsuburbs. Provision of innovativepublic transport is likelyto be part of this project. • Thereare currentlyseveral smart card trialsunder way in Australia,in­ cludingcontactless smart card trialsin WesternSydney involving local taxi, bus, and rail operatorsas well as banksand retailoutlets. • An Australiancompany, Dynamic Transport Management, has devel­ opedone of the world'smost advanced dispatching systems for the cou­ rier industrycapable of handlingmulti-hire dispatching applications for

Spring 1997 Journalof PublicTransportation 61

passengers.Virtually all of Australia'staxi industry is now computer dispatchedusing advancedsingle-hire dispatching systems, mostly us­ ing Raywoodequipment. This expertise has alreadyled to exportoppor­ tunitiesfor bothof thesecompanies in theAsia-Pacific region, the United States,Europe, and the MiddleEast. Table4 summarizessome of these developments. Hence,it is hopedthat furtherdevelopments will enablean integratedap­ proachto be developedthat incorporatesthe full PPT conceptwith new multi­ hire modes,extensive network of PPT stops, and integrationof scheduledand on-demandservices in real time.

PPTand PRT-A Comparison Capitaland Operating Costs of Personal Public Transport PPT is essentiallyan approachbased on utilizingcurrent public transport vehiclesand adding IntelligentTransport Systems to providenew types of ser­ vices and to integrateall servicesin real time into a seamlesssystem from the perspectiveof the customer. As such, it is a relativelylow capital cost system,with the main expenditure being on communicationssystems. The on-demandvehicle fleets wouldbe ex­ pandedconsiderably, but these are relativelycheap. No new roads wouldbe re­ quired.The total capital cost for a PPT system for a city the size of Sydney (population3.8 million)and capableof handlingat least 5 percent of total mo­ torizedtrips in the metropolitanarea, is estimatedin Table5. Thus, total capitalexpenditure for Sydneywould be expectedto be of the order of A$l billion(US $800million), which would probably be spreadover a decadeor so. This compareswith annualcapital expenditure of A$600 million on the CityRailnetwork, and morethan that on majorroadworks in Sydney.For example,the followingare some of the major projects recently completedor under way at presentin Sydney: • the New SouthernRailway (A$670 million) (under construction) • the HomebushBay Rail Line (A$70million) (under construction)

Spring1997 62 Journalof PublicTransportation

lable4 Current'Dials and Initiatives In Australia

Location Initiative Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Perth Adelaide Canberra Integrated Yes Yes Yes (non-realtime) pass Info System Computer Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes dispatchingof taxis GPSon taxis Yes Yes Yes Yes GPS/AVI Small 180 15 on buses trial buses spec. buses Real-time Some Some Select Spec. arrival stations stations bus stops stops information and sev. andon on trial inCBD bus stops trialfor Useof"maxi- Limited Extensive taxis"by taxi industry Use of mini and Extensive Extensive Limited Com- midibuses mencing Franchisingof Yes Extensive Under Under bus services way way Smartcard trial Yes Information kiosktrial Yes Yes

• the UltimoPynnont Line ($A60million) (almost completed) • the EasternDistributor (A$600 million) (about to commence) • the M5 Motorway(A$650 million) Gust completed) • the HarbourTunnel (A$700 million) ( completed)

Spring1997 Journalof PublicTransportation 63

Tables EstimatedCapital Cost for a PPTSystem for MetropolitanSydney

Costper Total Costper No. Item Cost Capita Item Required A$ A$m A$ ControlCenters Regional 10 6m 60 16 MainCenter I 20m 20 5 Subtotal 11 80 21 AdditionalVehicles Maxitaxis 6,000 50,000 300 80 Taxibuses 4,000 100,000 400 105 Subtotal 10,000 700 185 MobileEquipment Taxis 4,300 2,000 9 2 Maxitaxis 6,000 3,500 21 6 Taxibuses 4,000 3,500 14 4

Subtotal 14,300 44 12

ElectronicBus Stops 21,000 12,000 250 66 Total 1,074 282

Whilethe capitalcosts for a PPT systemwould be low,the operatingcosts for the on-demandcomponents would be relativelyhigh due to the need for drivers and the use of small vehicles.This is reflectedin the anticipatedfare structures,which are expectedto averagearound $1.00 per kilometerfor a 4 km trip for the multi-hireon-demand modes ( compared to an averageof 50-80cents per kilometerfor the fullcost of driving,excluding parking and extemalitycosts­ congestion,pollution, etc.). The figure expectedin othercities would depend on factorssuch as popula­ tion density,wage structures,ownership models assumed for the on-demand fleets,road congestionlevels, etc.

Spring1997 64 Journalof PublicTransportation

In higher-densitycities, such as are typicalin Europeor Asia, averageseat occupancieswill be higher,although this will be counterbalancedby loweraver­ age travelspeeds. Low-density cities such as thosefound in the U.S.will gener­ ally havelonger trips, higherspeeds and somewhatlower occupancy factors. Capitaland Operating Costs of Personal Rapid Transport PersonalRapid Transport is a genericname for systemscombining the use of smallvehicles (to provideflexible and personalizedtransport) with guideway and controlsystems to allowthose vehicles to movewithout drivers. Generally,such systems can be expectedto exhibit(relatively) high capital costs, particularlyif grade separationfrom existingstreets and pedestriansis required,but low operatingcosts (due to the automaticcontrol systems). For example,Table 6 comparescapital costs for PPT and somePRT systems exam­ ined in relationto the GoldCoast in Queensland. The particularcost structureswill dependon the particularcity or applica­ tion concerned,and the detailsof the particularsystem adopted. Table7 summarizessome of the mainfeatures of PRTvs. PPT.

Table6 Comparisonof CapitalCosts: PPT vs. PRT

PPT(a) PRT(b) PRT(c)

TotalCapital Cost A$90m A$140m A $240m EstimatedRidership 16million 16million 20 million CapitalCost/Rider A$6 A $9 A $12

Sources: (a) Awhors estimate;assumes full PPTnmltihire system capturing 4-5% of motorizedtrips in GoldCoast area. Includes cost of vehiclefleets required. (b) AustransSystem (based on estimatesprovided by Austrans); captures high percentage of line-haultrips in denselyused coastal strip. (c) OverheadSuspended PRT System evaluated for GoldCoast; captures high percelllage of line-haultrips in denselyused coastal strip.

Spring/997 Journalof PublicTransportation 65

Table7 Comparisonbetween Key Characteristics of PRT and PPT

Characteristic PRT PPT CapitalCost High Low OperatingCost Low-Medium High (On-demandmodes) PotentialSuitability for: • Specialistapplications (e.g., airports) High Med • Downtowndistributors High Med • Highvolume links Med Med-Low (on-demand modes) • Purpose-builtnew town developments Med Med

• Generalsuburban areas Low High

Easeof retrofittinginto Low High existingurban environments

This suggeststhat PRTsystems are likelyto first be establishedin special­ ized areas (such as links betweenairport terminalsand surroundingcar park areas, new town developments,or resort areas), while PPT could be installed virtuallyanywhere. In both cases,however, initial resistance is likelyfrom cur­ rent transportoperators unless they can be incorporatedinto the solution(this is muchmore likelywith PPT than automatedsystems such as PRT). PRT systemsare also likelyto be more suitablein high incomecommuni­ ties wherewage rates are high and,hence, competing transport systems are ex­ pensive,or where congestionis so bad that politiciansare forced to undertake major investmentsto solve the problems.

Spring1997 66 Journalof PublicTransportation

Evolutionof ourCities-A Simplified Paradigm Wheredo PPT and PRTfit into the biggerpicture? In very simplifiedterms, our societycan be seen as evolvingthrough vari­ ous stagesover the last few centuries,from the pre-industrialthrough the indus­ trial and post-industrialages to the future"communitarian" age. As discussedby Lepaniet al. ( 1995),this processof evolutionhas eco­ nomic,social/psychological, and physical(including urban structure and trans­ port systems)dimensions; it also reflectsa generalprinciple of nature for in­ creasingoverall structural complexity, as illustratedbelow. Our urbanstructures have been transformed from villages and smalltowns, to the high-densitybut structuredcities of the industrialage, then to the sprawl­ ing suburbanregions of today.This processis still continuingin countriessuch as China,India, and Indonesia,where rural-urban migration continues at a high rate. In urbantransport terms, we haveseen first the riseof masspublic transport systems(predominantly heavy rail and electrictram) in the industrialage, fol­ lowedby the rise of mass privatetransport in the form of the car in the post­ industrialage. The socialparallel was the demiseof the local communityand the rise of mass movements,class structures,and nationalismin the industrialage, fol­ lowedby the rise of the cult of the individual.In psychologicalterms, the indus­ trial age was characterizedby conformity;the post-industrialage was character­ ized by freedomand its resultantchaos. The costs of the currentpost-industrial age in social, environmental,and psychologicalterms are beginningto be understoodmore widely.As this hap­ pens, futuresocieties will beginto emerge.These are likelyto be basedon new value systemsin which environmentaland social awarenessis more apparent than it is today,with correspondinglyless emphasis on individualconsumption. There is likely to be both increasingglobal connectivity at one level, and in­ creasinglocal connectivity at another,with a renewedfocus on belonging.How­ ever,unlike previous village societies, people will have greater flexibility to choose

Spring/997 Journalof PublicTransportation 67

Tables Economic,Social/Psychological, and Physical Evolution: ASimplified Model

Stage of Pre- Post- Future Evolution Industrial Industrial Industrial Communitarian Dimension Economic Feudal; Nationstates; Borderless Integrated limitedtrade; globaltrade; world; world; small-scale economiesof economiesof economics production; scale; scope; and ecology; producer consumer qualityof life economics economics economics Social/ Highly-structuredClass-structured; Individualistic; Reconnected Psychological but inward but increasingly highlevels of societieswith looking; open mobilityand greater religiousview stress emphasison localismand belonging Urban Villagesand Major Metropolitan Urbanvillage Structure smalltowns industrialcities regions networks Urban Walk,horse- Masstransit Automobile PPT,PRT Transport drawnvehicles Physical Solid Liquid Gas Organic Analogy molecure EnergyUse Low Medium High Medium Entropy Low Medium High Medium (Disorder) Intercon- Low Medium Medium High nectedness Overall Low Medium Medium High Structural Complexity

Spring/997 68 Journalof PublicTransportation among a range of communities,with distinctbut more sustainablelifestyles, technologiesand valuesystems. If this broad thesis is accepted,then it is likelythat new urban transport systemsthat providea betteroverall balance between individual mobility and environmentaland communitywelfare will emerge.PPT and PRTare likelyto be strongcontenders for suchsystems. •:•

References Douehi.1997. An Analysisof PublicTransport Utility and Feasibilityof PersonalPub­ lic Transportin Leichhardtand Fairfield.Reports produced for Leichhardtand FairfieldCouncils. Glazebrookand Associates.1995. Personal Public Transport for Canberra.Pre-Feasi­ bilityReport. Report prepared for the ACT Department of UrbanServices, March. Glazebrook,G., A. Middleton,and M. Ratcliffe.1994. Personal Public Transport for Perth.Proceedings of the First WorldCongress on IntelligentTransport Systems. Paris, December:3032-3039. Glazebrook,G. 1996.Oz publictransport goes personal. ITS International.Issue No 4, London,March: 94-95. Lepani,B., et al. 1995.The RydeUrban Villages Study. Report prepared for RydeCity Council(Sydney). NSW Government.1992. Future Directions Study for Sydney.Report preparedfor NSW Roadsand TrafficAuthority. QueenslandGovernment. 1996. Integrated Regional Transport Plan for South East Queensland.Draft DiscussionReport. Rawling,M., J. Smith,and I. Davidson.1995. Modelling of PersonalPublic Transport in a Multi-ModeService Environment. Proceedings from the InternationalCon­ ferenceon Applicationof New Technologyto TransportSystems. Melbourne, Australia.May: 167-178. Reark and Associates.1995. Personal Public Transport for Perth:Market Research. Report preparedfor WA Departmentof Transport,East Perth Redevelopment Authorityand TelecomAustralia.

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Aboutthe Authors GARRY GLAZEBROOK is an Associatewith Booz-Allen& Hamilton(Aust) Lim­ ited in Sydney,Australia. SAM SuBRAMANIAM is an Associatewith Booz-Allen& Hamilton Limited in McLean,Virginia.

Spring1997