Preliminary Study on Electrification Program for Bujumbura Area in Burundi

Study Report

March 2007

Engineering and Consulting Firms Association, Japan

NEWJEC Inc.

This work was subsidized by Japan Keirin Association through its Promotion funds from

Preliminary Study on Electrification Program for Bujumbura Area in Burundi

Study Report

March 2007

Engineering and Consulting Firms Association, Japan

NEWJEC Inc.

Study Area

Location Map Contents

Executive Summary ...... S - 1

Chapter 1 Introduction...... 1 - 1 1.1 Background and Objectives...... 1 - 1 1.2 Scope of Works...... 1 - 2 1.3 Study Area ...... 1 - 2 1.4 Study Schedule ...... 1 - 2 1.5 Study Team Member ...... 1 - 3

Chapter 2 Socio-economic Condition in Burundi ...... 2 - 1 2.1 Introduction ...... 2 - 1 2.2 Population...... 2 - 1 2.3 Economy...... 2 - 5 2.4 International Trade ...... 2 - 7 2.5 Foreign Assistance...... 2 - 9

Chapter 3 Present Status of Power Sector in Burundi ...... 3 - 1 3.1 Introduction ...... 3 - 1 3.2 Organization, Law and Regulations ...... 3 - 2 3.2.1 Organization ...... 3 - 2 3.2.2 Law and Regulations ...... 3 - 5 3.3 Government Policies and Programs ...... 3 - 5 3.3.1 PRSP...... 3 - 5 3.3.2 Sectoral Policy of MIN E&M...... 3 - 7 3.4 Existing Power Generation Facilities ...... 3 - 9 3.5 Transmission and Distribution Facilities ...... 3 - 12 3.6 Power Supply and Demand ...... 3 - 15 3.7 Power Trade with Other Countries...... 3 - 18 3.8 Electricity Tariff ...... 3 - 20 3.9 Capacity Development ...... 3 - 21 3.10 Environmental Impact Assessment System...... 3 - 21

i Chapter 4 Outline of Bujumbura Area...... 4 - 1 4.1 Overview of Bujumbura...... 4 - 1 4.1.1 General Description...... 4 - 1 4.1.2 Situation of Electrification ...... 4 - 1 4.2 Power Supply and Demand of Bujumbura Area...... 4 - 4 4.3 Power Supply and Demand Prospect of Bujumbura Area...... 4 - 5

Chapter 5 Regional-Development Effects of Electrification...... 5 - 1 5.1 Background ...... 5 - 1 5.2 Potential...... 5 - 5 5.3 Japanese Experience...... 5 - 9 5.4 Regional-Development by Stable and Enough Power Supply ...... 5 - 11

Chapter 6 Hydro Potential for Electrification of Bujumbura Area...... 6 - 1 6.1 Hydropower Potential in Burundi ...... 6 - 1 6.1.1 Meteorology and Hydrology ...... 6 - 1 6.1.2 Topography...... 6 - 3 6.1.3 Previous Studies ...... 6 - 5 6.2 Reconnaissance Study of Candidate Site on Kagunuzi River ...... 6 - 19 6.2.1 Site Reconnaissance ...... 6 - 19 6.2.2 Reconnaissance Study on Kagu 006 Hydropower Project ...... 6 - 21 6.3 Conceptual Study on Electrification of Bujumbura Area ...... 6 - 32

Chapter 7 Conclusion ...... 7 - 1 7.1 Electrification Scenario for Bujumbura Area ...... 7 - 1 7.2 Regional Development Effects of Electrification...... 7 - 2 7.3 Other Effects of Electrification...... 7 - 2

Appendix 1 Schedule for Field Investigation Appendix 2 Interviewed Persons List Appendix 3 Photos Appendix 4 Collected Data List

ii List of Tables

Table 2.1 Population change of each province in Burundi...... 2 - 1 Table 2.2 Population change of Burundi and its urban area...... 2 - 3 Table 2.3 Population by age of each province in Burundi in 2001...... 2 - 4 Table 2.4 GDP, GDP per capita and Production of each sector in Burundi...... 2 - 5 Table 2.5 Working population of each sector in Burundi...... 2 - 6 Table 2.6 Main agricultural product in Burundi...... 2 - 6 Table 2.7 Structure of exports from Burundi (in million Fbu) ...... 2 - 7 Table 2.8 The main export partners in 2003...... 2 - 8 Table 2.9 The main import partners in 2003 ...... 2 - 8 Table 2.10 Ratio of foreign aid in GNI to Burundi ...... 2 - 9

Table 3.1 Composition of Power Plants in Burundi ...... 3 - 9 Table 3.2 Hydro-Electric Power Plants Installed in Burundi ...... 3 - 10 Table 3.3 Demand per Geographic Areas and Necessary Production (MWh) 2000 – 2010 ...... 3 - 17 Table 3.4 Demand per Geographic Areas and Necessary Production (MWh) 2000 – 2010 ...... 3 - 17 Table 3.5 Electricity Tariff Structures 2001 – 2004...... 3 - 20

Table 4.1 Consumed Energy in Bujumbura by Sector (GWh) 1988 – 1999 ...... 4 - 4 Table 4.2 Electrification Ratio of Bujumbura 1998 – 2015...... 4 - 8

Table 5.1 Number of employers according to economic activity section (to 31 December)...... 5 - 3 Table 5.2 Number of active workers for each economic activity (to 31 December)...... 5 - 4 Table 5.3 Number of water service users in Bujumbura ...... 5 - 7 Table 5.4 Japanese experiences for the regional promotion by the best use of regional environment...... 5 - 9

Table 6.1 Rainfall Data at Bujumbura in Burundi (1992-1998)...... 6 - 3 Table 6.2 Theoretical Hydropower Potential in Burundi...... 6 - 7 Table 6.3 Exploitable Hydropower Projects in Burundi...... 6 - 8 Table 6.4 Demand Forecast in MP 1983 Report...... 6 - 8

iii Table 6.5 Inventory of Hydropower Potential Sites ...... 6 - 10 Table 6.6 List of Exploitable Hydropower Potential Sites ...... 6 - 11 Table 6.7 Estimated Monthly Discharge of Kagunuzi and Kabulantwa Rivers ...... 6 - 13 Table 6.8 Features of Candidate Hydropower Projects ...... 6 - 17 Table 6.9 Construction Cost of Kagu 006 Run-Off-River Scheme ...... 6 - 23

iv List of Figures

Figure 2.1 Population change of each province in Burundi...... 2 - 2 Figure 2.2 Population change in Burundi ...... 2 - 2 Figure 2.3 Population change of Burundi and its urban area...... 2 - 3 Figure 2.4 Population by age in Burundi in 2001 ...... 2 - 4 Figure 2.5 GDP and GDP per capita in Burundi...... 2 - 5 Figure 2.6 Production of each sector in GDP ratio ...... 2 - 5

Figure 3.1 Source of Energy in Burundi ...... 3 - 1 Figure 3.2 Organization Chart of MIN E&M ...... 3 - 2 Figure 3.3 Hydro-Electric Power Plants Installed in Burundi ...... 3 - 11 Figure 3.4 Electricity Production in Burundi including Import in 2004...... 3 - 11 Figure 3.5 National Grid in Burundi...... 3 - 13 Figure 3.6 Network Diagram of the National Grid ...... 3 - 14 Figure 3.7 Supplied/Consumed Energy and Loss ...... 3 - 15 Figure 3.8 Future T/L Network of Burundi and its Neighboring Countries...... 3 - 19

Figure 4.1 Map of Bujumbura City Central...... 4 - 3 Figure 4.2 Consumed Energy in Bujumbura by Sector ...... 4 - 5 Figure 4.3 Demand Prospect of Bujumbura...... 4 - 6

Figure 5.1 Number of water service users in Bujumbura ...... 5 - 7 Figure 5.2 Number of tourists visited national parks in Rwanda...... 5 - 12

Figure 6.1 Wind system in Africa ...... 6 - 2 Figure 6.2 Annual Rainfall Distribution in East Africa ...... 6 - 2 Figure 6.3 Rainfall Unreliability in East Africa...... 6 - 2 Figure 6.4 Annual Rainfall Variation at Bujumbura in Burundi ...... 6 - 3 Figure 6.5 Topographic map around Burundi ...... 6 - 4 Figure 6.6 Relief and landforms of East Africa ...... 6 - 4 Figure 6.7 Geology of East Africa ...... 6 - 5 Figure 6.8 Topography of Burundi...... 6 - 5 Figure 6.9 Location Map of Exploitable Hydropower Potential Sites...... 6 - 12

v Figure 6.10 Profile of Kagunuzi and Kitenge River ...... 6 - 15 Figure 6.11 Profile of Kaburantwa River...... 6 - 15 Figure 6.12 Power Development Plan in case of Medium Scenario...... 6 - 15 Figure 6.13 Location Map of Candidate Hydropower Projects ...... 6 - 13 Figure 6.14 Root Map of Site Reconnaissance on August 26, 2006...... 6 - 19 Figure 6.15 Section at Weir Site of Kagu 006...... 6 - 20 Figure 6.16 Profile of Kagunuzi River...... 6 - 20 Figure 6.17 Estimated Monthly Discharge at Kagu 006 Site...... 6 - 22 Figure 6.18 Optimization of Kagu 006 Pondage Scheme...... 6 - 26 Figure 6.19 Kagu 006 Run-off-River Scheme ...... 6 - 30 Figure 6.20 Kagu 006 Pondage Scheme ...... 6 - 31

Figure 7.1 Electrification Scenario for Bujumbura Area ...... 7 - 3

vi List of Photos

Photo 5.1 Promotion residential quarter in Bujumbura ...... 5 - 1 Photo 5.2 Worker district where vigor is filled in Bujumbura...... 5 - 2 Photo 5.3 Tanganyika lake and Resort hotel in Tanganyika lakefront...... 5 - 2

vii List of Abbreviations (1/2)

Abbrev. English French AfDB African Development Bank Banque africaine de développement (BAD) AfDF African Development Fund Fonds africain de Développement (FAD) CEPGL Economic Community of the Great Lakes Communauté Economique des Pays des Grands Countries Lacs CNDD-FDD Council for the Defence of Democracy - Forces The Conseil national pour la défense de la for the Defence of Democracy democratie (CNDD) - Forces pour la défense de la democratie (FDD) DGHER General Direction of Hydraulics and Rural Direction Générale de l'Hydraulique et des Energies Energies Rurales DRC Democratic Republic of the Congo République Démocratique du Congo (RDC) EIA Environment Impact Assessment F-PRSP Full PRSP (refer to “PRSP”) FBU Burundi franc FNL National Liberation Front Forces nationales de libération (FNL) FS Feasibility Study GWh Giga Watt Hour (1billion watt hour) HEPP Hydro-Electric Power Plant Centrale Hydroélectrique (CHE) HV High Voltage Haute Tension (HT) I-PRSP Interim PRSP (refer to “PRSP”) ISTEEBU Burundi Statistical and Economic Sciences Institut de Statistiques et d'Etudes Economiques Institute du Burundi ITCZ Inter Tropical Convergence Zone IMF International Monetary Fund JICA Japan International Cooperation Agency LV Low Voltage Basse Tension (BT) MIN E&M Ministry of Energy and Mines Ministère de l’Energie et des Mines MP Master Plan MV Medium Voltage Moyenne Tension (MT) MW Mega Watt (1 million watt) NBI Nile Basin Initiative Initiative du Bassin du Nil (IBN) NEF New Energy Foundation of Japan NELSAP Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action program Programme d’action subsidiaire pour les pays des Lacs équatoriaux du Nil (PAALEN) ODA Official Development Assistance ONATOUR National Office of Peat l’Office National de la Tourbe Pre-FS Pre-Feasibility Study PRSP Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper

viii List of Abbreviations (2/2)

Abbrev. English French REGIDESO Burundi Water and Electricity Production and Régie de Production et de Distribution d’Eau et Distribution Authority d’Electricité SAP Subsidiary Action Program SINELAC International Electricity Supply Company of the Société Internationale d’Energie des Grands Lacs Great Lakes SMIs/SMEs Small and Medium-sized Industries/Enterprises SNEL National Electricity Supply Company Société Nationale d’Electricité SVP basin-wide Shared Vision Program WB World Bank Banque mondiale (BM)

Executive Summary

The Republic of Burundi is a landlocked country located in central Africa having a national land area of 27,800 km2 and population of 7.3 million (2004). Burundi is situated on a plateau area having an average elevation of 1,700m and abounds in water resource, relatively abundant among African countries, with 1,500mm annual precipitation. Bujumbura, the capital city of Burundi, lies at the northeastern corner of Lake Tanganyika and, with population of 365,000 in 2003. Bujumbura is Burundi’s largest city and its administrative, communications, and economic center.

One of the rebel force (FNL) that had fought to the last minute since the civil war outbreak in 1993, agreed to a permanent cease-fire on September 7, 2006. Then, Burundi walks steadily in the peacemaking process, while Rwanda in the neighboring country is previously advancing one step. However, the infrastructure conditions have never improved despite the peace-talk opening agreement of 1996 and a cease-fire of 2003 that ended nationwide armed struggle. Regarding the electric power sector, in particular, the country’s electrification rate stands at a meager 2% due to destructions by the civil war and dilapidation of facilities which is causing delays in the post-war restoration as well as the economic recovery and development.

On the other hand, the PRSP prepared in September, 2006 prioritized the good governance and the poverty reduction as its main strategies, indicated the lack of facilities to support production activities, as problems, and for achieving the poverty reduction and nation’s growth goals, emphasized the necessity of capacity building for the power sector, together with water supply, transportation and communication, as means to enhance production and diversification.

In view of the country’s necessity for “Peace-building” and “Human-security”, Japan is prepared to provide an emergency humanitarian assistance through ODA and support their post-war reconstruction efforts. The resumption of the bilateral economic cooperation was decided in September 1999 and financial grant aids in the fields of road-building as well as health and medical care are to be executed in fiscal 2006.

Under these circumstances, the power supply in Bujumbura city has failed to keep up with the population growth, its urban concentration and industrial development, and the chronic shortage of power supply is (1) delaying post-war restoration activities, (2) deteriorating people’s health due to the insufficient power supply to medical institutions, and (3) hampering industrial development. For bringing Burundi’s post-war restoration, development and peace-building on a steady process, it is imperative to urgently improve the power supply situation in the capital city of Bujumbura. The successful development of the capital city will lay a foundation on which regional areas are stimulated and developed. This study aims to formulate a preliminary electrification plan for the capital city of Bujumbura that will contribute to the regional

S- 1 -

industrial development through building the improved foundation for people’s living and industrial activities.

This preliminary electrification plan conducted under such objectives for the capital city of Bujumbura will provide a basis for Burundi’s post-war restoration, poverty reduction and economic development.

According to our preliminary study result on current situation of power sector in Burundi, the total installed capacity in Burundi including imported electricity produced by hydropower is 57.7 MW. There are 27 hydro-electric power plants (hereafter called HEPP) in Burundi; however, only 3 HEPPs, i.e. Rwegura (18 MW), Mugere (8 MW) and Ruvyironza (1.275 MW) are interconnected to the National Grid at present. Burundi also imports electricity through the National Grid from Ruzizi I HEPP of SNEL and Ruzizi II HEPP of SINELAC, respectively for 8 and 12 MW as the maximum allowance for Burundi. Therefore installed capacity of 27.3 MW produced by interconnected 3 HEPPs plus maximum 20 MW of imported production are available for electricity supply to Bujumbura thorough the National Grid.

The electric power in Burundi is mainly made up by the hydroelectricity and to a lesser extent by thermal electricity. Production by the other sources (photovoltaic, wind, etc.) is still marginal. State-owned diesel power plant of 5.5 MW, constructed in Bujumbura in June 1996 and maintained as standby power for emergency, cannot operate due to the prohibitively high cost of fuel. As the most of existing HEPPs in Burundi were constructed in 1980s and also some were constructed in 1950s, problems due to aging facilities were found. Under these circumstances, Burundi’s power import is increasing year by year. The import share in the total electricity production was only 12.4% in 1987 when the first import from Ruzizi I began. But the import dependence in 2004 is as high as 44.3% of the total electricity production.

Regarding the electricity demand, the latest record available on Bujumbura’s consumed energy is that of 1999, i.e. 80 GWh. It comprises 76.8% of the consumed energy in whole Burundi in the same year (104 GWh). Based on the previous studies and our compiling work and findings, we assume the present status of Bujumbura is under the electrification ratio of about 22.5%, the consumed energy of 90 to 95 GWh which comprises 71 to 75% of whole Burundi’s consumed energy. Also it is assumed that Bujumbura potentially has a capacity of 98 to 103 GWh of consumed energy at the time of 2004. It is also indicated that in order for Burundi to steadily attain poverty reduction and economic growth, Bujumbura will need a consumed energy of 110 to 120 GWh in 2010. With such future perspective, efforts for securing stable power sources to feed the National Grid and further expanding the distribution lines in Bujumbura area are urgently needed.

In recognition of the indigenous hydropower development being the fundamental solution to the problems

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of the chronic power shortage and the low electrification level, this report proposes an electrification scenario of the Bujumbura area as short and medium-to-long term measures. The short term measure envisages approximately three years and proposes a run-off-river scheme hydropower development (2.5 MW) which can be realized within the timeframe, comprises a base load power source, and is environmentally acceptable. At the same time, the report supports the introduction of a new diesel power plant (about 5 MW) including the supply of fuel, for emergency and future peak load use, and specifically proposes the utilization of the diesel power plant (5.5 MW) which is kept dormant at present. Considering the long lead time of about ten years required for a hydropower development, this report proposes, as a medium to long term measure, to start formulating a master plan for hydropower development and a feasibility study on potential hydropower sites as soon as practicable. The national grid’s excessive dependence on hydropower poses a structural problem of the capacity drop in the dry season being unavoidable. To diversify the energy sources for power generation in the future, therefore, an early initiation of research for natural energy development potentials such as peat, biomass, solar etc. is recommended.

For each of the regional development potentials, the stable and sufficient power supply is a prerequisite. Judging from the current conditions of Bujumbura city, it is assumed that the stable and sufficient power supply will directly lead to the regional development, i.e. raising the living standards of the people and activating small and medium-sized enterprises. In parallel with the capacity improvement for the stable and sufficient power supply, promoting additional measures should be most realistic for regional development, such as development of hotel facilities and government-led personnel capacity building and active appealing toward overseas, in a way to create employment opportunities from tourism. When the basic infrastructure will have been built or become certain to be built in the future to attract private and overseas investors, aquatic resources from locally characteristic Lake Tanganyika should be utilized for the canning industry, and mineral products should be developed for the mining industry so that the broader and more effective regional development will become a real possibility.

The stable and sufficient supply of electric power as the basic infrastructure to promote the people’s living standards and to attract private and overseas investors in the future is an essential element needed for Bujumbura city area development.

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Chapter 1 Introduction

1.1 Background and Objectives

The Republic of Burundi is a landlocked country located in central Africa having a national land area of 27,800 km2 and population of 7.3 million (2004). It is bordered by Rwanda on the North, the United Republic of Tanzania on the south and east, and Democratic Republic of Congo on the south and west. Burundi is situated on a plateau area having an average elevation of 1,700m and abounds in water resource, relatively abundant among African countries, with 1,500mm annual precipitation. The capital city of Burundi, among others, faces Lake Tanganyika, and with a number of rivers flowing into the lake, is endowed with relatively plentiful water resources.

Owing to the aftermath of the civil war that broke up in 1993, however, the infrastructure conditions have never improved despite the peace-talk opening agreement of 1996 and a cease-fire of 2003 that ended nationwide armed struggle. Regarding the electric power sector, in particular, the country’s electrification rate stands at a meager 2% due to destructions by the civil war and dilapidation of facilities which is causing delays in the post-war restoration as well as the economic recovery and development.

1-1 imperative to urgently improve the power supply situation in the capital city of Bujumbura. The successful development of the capital city will lay a foundation on which regional areas are stimulated and developed. This study aims to formulate a preliminary electrification plan for the capital city of Bujumbura that will contribute to the regional industrial development through building the improved foundation for people’s living and industrial activities.

1.2 Scope of Works

The investigation for the following items was conducted.

- Electric power condition and relating matter - Feasibility for electric power development and electrification planning - Feasibility for regional-development

1.3 Study Area

The study was conducted in Bujumbura city1 that is the capital of Burundi and electrification development target area in this study, and the outskirts where some hydro-electric potential sites are located.

1.4 Study Schedule

Investigation in Bujumbura city and site survey in Bujumbura city outskirts were conducted during August 23rd - August 31st of 2006, by the cooperation of REGIDESO (REGIE DE PROCDUCTION ET DE DISTRIBUTION D'EAU ET D'ELECTRICITE) under the control of Ministry Energy and Mines in Burundi. Refer to Appendix 1 for detail itinerary in Burundi.

1 : “Bujumbura” has the case to mean “Bujumbura city” that is the capital of Burundi and the case to mean “Bujumbura province” including Bujumbura city and its surrounding rural area.

1-2 1.5 Study Team Member

This study was conducted by the following members.

- Kazunori INOUE, Leader / Electrification Planning - Taketoshi MATSUNAGA, Electric Power Development Planning - Masayoshi HAYASHI, Social Environment Consideration

1-3 Chapter 2 Socio-economic Condition in Burundi

2.1 Introduction

The first national election for the local assembly, the Senate and the National Assembly since the civil war outbreak in 1993 were executed in 2005 after the period of provisional politics. In August 2005, Mr. Nkurunziza who is the leader of CNDD-FDD that became the ruling party won by the election was indirectly elected to the president at the general meeting of the Parliament. Moreover, one of the rebel force (FNL) that had fought to the last minute since the civil war outbreak in 1993, agreed to a permanent cease-fire on September 7, 2006. Then, Burundi walks steadily in the peacemaking process, while Rwanda in the neighboring country is previously advancing one step. However, the former president Ndayizeye and other members were arrested on the suspicion related to the coup attempt in August, 2006, while the vice president Nzomucnda who criticized government graft and the human-right violation resigned. Thus, the political situation still faces many challenges.

2.2 Population

The population of Burundi is increasing every year in each region as shown in Table 2.1 and Figure 2.1. Table 2.1 Population change of each province in Burundi

2-1

Figure 2.1 Population change of each province in Burundi

The population growth rate of less than 2 % that has continued since the civil war outbreak in 1993 is recovering to the rate before the civil war after 1999. The population and population growth rate in Burundi are shown in Figure 2.2.

Figure 2.2 Population change in Burundi

2-2 Table 2.1 shows that the most populous regions are Ngozi province located in northern part of Burundi, and Gitega province containing the old capita, while it becomes the most populous in case the population of Bujumbura city, the capital of Burundi:, and Bujumbura province surrounding Bujumbura city are totaled. The populations of Cibitoke province, Kayanza province, Kirundo province and Muyinga province that have borders with Rwanda or Tanzania are also large. The source of Table 2.1, Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.2 on the previous page is the population data published by Institut de Statistiques et D’Etudes Economiques du Burundi (ISTEEBU). While the population changes of Burundi and its urban area whose source is the population data published by African Development Bank (AfDB) are shown in Table 2.2 and Figure 2.3, shows a little different figures from Table 2.1, Figure 2.1 and Figure 2.2.

Table 2.2 Population change of Burundi and its urban area

Figure 2.3 Population change of Burundi and its urban area

2-3 Table 2.2 and Figure 2.3 shows that the population growth rate of urban area is higher than that of the entire Burundi in these years, which means the population concentration to the urban area. The population by age is shown in Table 2.3and Figure 2.4.

Table 2.3 Population by age of each province in Burundi in 2001

Figure 2.4 Population by age in Burundi in 2001

These data show the population composition of a typical developing country as the difference between each categories of the childish population is big and explains the high mortality rate among the childish generation.

2-4 2.3 Economy

GDP per capita and GDP ratio of production in each sector are shown in Table 2.4, Figure 2.5 and Figure 2.6.

Table 2.4 GDP, GDP per capita and Production of each sector in Burundi

Figure 2.5 GDP and GDP per capita in Burundi

Figure 2.6 Production of each sector in GDP ratio

2-5 Though GDP was decreasing every year since the civil war outbreak, the recovering symptom is seen in the data of 2004. And GDP per capita is about 90USD in these a couple of years, which being less than the half of before the civil war breaks out. As for the industrial composition, the ratio of the third industry including public service such as electricity and water service is increasing every year, while the ratio of the primary industry of agriculture etc. is decreasing. It could be also guessed that the population is concentrating in the urban area from these diagrams, because the third industry is main industry in the urban area.

Table 2.5 Working population of each sector in Burundi

Table 2.6 Main agricultural product in Burundi

2-6 Burundi is an agrarian country as more than 90% of the work force is engaged in the primary industry. (Refer to Table 2.5) Food could be self-supported domestically to be surmisable because the primary industry accounted for about 50% of GDP before 1993. (Refer to Table 2.4 & Figure 2.6) However, Burundi is dependent on the food aid up to now since the civil war outbreak, because of the situation with resource-poor and high density population. Table 2.6 shows that the agricultural production ha been decreasing since 1993.

2.4 International Trade

The export amount of each product of Burundi is shown in Table 2.7. According to the data in 2003, coffee, tea, beer, and sugar, etc. are major exporting products and coffee accounts for more than 60%, of the total amount, while relying on the food aid. In recent years, the export amount of sugar has been recovered to the level before the civil war outbreak as well as of beer , while there are some products of which export amount has been decreased sharply since the civil war outbreak.

Table 2.7 Structure of exports from Burundi (in million Fbu)

2-7

The main countries for export and import in 2003 are shown in Table 2.8 and Table 2.9.

Table 2.8 The main export partners in 2003

Table 2.9 The main import partners in 2003

The export amount in 2003 to Switzerland occupies one third of the total export amount from Burundi, and the total import amount from Luxembourg, and Kenya, Tanzania and Zambia occupies more than a half of the total import amount to Burundi. Burundi relies on the import for a lot of things such as capital goods like cement, oil and industrial products, and foods.

2-8 2.5 Foreign Assistance

The proportion of ODA amount in GNI (Gross National Income) of Burundi is shown in Table 2.10.

Table 2.10 Ratio of foreign aid in GNI to Burundi

ODA to Burundi in 2003 is US$224 million1. This accounts for about 39% of GNI of Burundi in 2003, and the ratio is increasing year by year. Japan’s ODA to Burundi up to 2003 pledged 3.3 billion yen (E/N base) as loan aid, 13 billion 289 million yen (E/N base) as grant aid, and 746 million yen (JICA base) as technical cooperation2. The most largest donor country for the bilateral assistance to Burundi in 2002 is the United States, followed by Belgium, Norway, Netherlands, and France2.

1 : The source is a statistical data of UNICEF. (http://www.unicef.org/infobycountry/burundi_statistics.html) 2 : The source is each country and regional situation information of the Japanese Ministry of Foreign Affairs. (http.www.mofa.go.jp/mofaj/area/Burundi/data.html)

2-9 Chapter 3 Present Status of Power Sector in Burundi

3.1 Introduction

The Republic of Burundi heavily depends, for its energy source, on the biomass resources (wood, peat and coal) which account for 87% of the total national requirement. Next to this, comes petroleum (11%) and electric power represents only 2% (see Figure 3.1). Consequently, the country not only suffers from problems such as the decline in the afforestation area ratio caused by excessive logging, and subsequent environmental problems including soil erosion but also the state’s economic growth is put under constraints because those problems have become impediments to the economic development of the other industries than those benefiting from the use of energy. With the above-mentioned background, the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP) prepared in September 2006 proclaims that the promotion of industrial development that ensures the economic growth and the development and the stabilization of electric power supply that constitutes the basis for the industry are mandatory. From the viewpoint of securing resources for the electric power development, it should be noted that Burundi has a significant hydraulic power potential. The PRSP mentioned that Burundi has 1,700 MW of its theoretical capacity, of which only 32 MW is being utilized at present.

Wood, Peat, Coal Petroleum Electricity

Source: L’énergie et l’eau au Burundi, Ambassade de France au Kenya – Mission Économique, March 2005 Figure 3.1 Source of Energy in Burundi

3-1 3.2 Organization, Law and Regulations

3.2.1 Organization

(1) Domestic Organization

The power sector of Burundi is administered by the Ministry of Energy and Mines, or Ministère de l’Energie et des Mines (hereafter called MIN E&M). The organization chart of MIN E&M is shown in Figure 3.2.

Jean’Marie NDARURINZE

Figure 3.2 Organization Chart of MIN E&M

MIN E&M consists of Headquarters, or Administration Centrale; Personalized Administrations, or Administrations Personalisées; Public Companies, or Etreprises Publiques represented by REGIDESO; Mixed Investment Company, or Société d’Economie Mixte; and Regional Organizations, or Organismes Régionaux such as SINELAC. Under Headquarters, General Department of Water and Energy, or Direction Générale de l’Eau et de l’Energie administers REGIDESO which is outlined later. Under General Department of Water and Energy, Department of Energy, or Direction de l’Energie administers new energies such as solar and wind energies.

3-2 REGIDESO (Burundi Water and Electricity Production and Distribution Authority, or Régie de Production et de Distribution d’Eau et d’Electricité) is responsible for the actual operation and administration of the electric power generating facilities in Burundi.

On the other hand, the hydro-electric power developments for further remote areas (rural electrification) are independently promoted by General Direction of Hydraulics and Rural Energies, or Direction Générale de l’Hydraulique et des Energies Rurales (hereafter called DGHER) which is under MIN E&M. As the hydro-electric power plants (hereafter called HEPP) of DGHER are independent of the main power grid (every HEPP stands independent for the rural electrification purpose), an agreement between REGIDESO and DGHER becomes necessary when any of HEPPs under DGHER is interconnected into the grid for power transmission.

Another state-owned company administered by MIN E&M is ONATOUR (National Office of Peat, or l’Office National de la Tourbe) which manages the peat or tourbe mined in the southern and northern districts of Burundi. ONATOUR was established in 1977. Peat is a kind of young coal available in swamps and former swamps and explorations have been conducted since the oil crisis of 1973 with a view to utilize peat as one of the promising energy sources to solve energy supply and deforestation problems in Burundi. To date, the explorations have proved a reserve of 100 million tons of peat throughout Burundi, of which 57 million tons are assessed as exploitable. On the other hand, the current annual peat production is 10,000 tons, yet to catch up with the annual demand of 14,000 tons. The main user of peat is the Army who consumes 98 % of the production. As mentioned in the beginning, the share of the biomass resources (wood, peat and coal) of the total energy requirement is 87 % out of which peat represents a mere 0.04 %.

The other organization related to the power sector than MIN E&M is the Ministry of Trade and Industry, or Ministère du Commerce et de l’Industrie which administers imports of petroleum products as fuel for thermal (diesel) power generation. The regional economic sanctions applied to Burundi between 1996 and 1999 have strongly affected consumption and the imports of oil, which, in 1999-2000, had fallen of 74% compared to the level of 1994. However, oil currently takes again importance since its imports increased by 30% between 1999 and 2002. The consumption of derived petroleum products is on average 77,000 tons per year. Burundi has two deposits of storage in Bujumbura and Gitega, which have a respective capacity of 12,000 and 20,000 m3. Although there would be oil in Burundi in certain valleys of Cibitoke (north-western) and Muyinga like in the lake Tanganyika, according to the government of Burundi, 100% of the resource is imported. Burundi indeed misses funds to exploit its own layers. The government trying to attract

3-3 the foreign investments; certain South-African and Anglo-American investors seem to be interested in the natural resources in Burundi.

(2) International Organization

Economic Community of the Great Lakes Countries, or Communauté Economique des Pays des Grands Lacs (hereafter called CEPGL) is an organization launched in 1976 and is made up of three countries, Burundi, Rwanda and Democratic Republic of Congo (hereafter called DRC). Its main aim is to foster economic integration and facilitate the movement of goods and people.

SINELAC, International Electricity Supply Company of the Great Lakes, or Société Internationale d’Energie des Grands Lacs is a company jointly established by the three countries that comprise CEPGL and manages Ruzizi II HEPP which was constructed in 1989.

On the other hand, Ruzizi I HEPP which was constructed in 1958 before CEPGL was launched, is managed by SNEL, National Electricity Supply Company, or Société Nationale d’Electricité. Ruzizi I HEPP was constructed by the three countries of Burundi, Rwanda and DRC along with Ntaruka HEPP located in northern Rwanda. At present, however, the right of using Ntaruka HEPP belongs to Rwanda and the right of using Ruzizi I HEPP belongs to Burundi and DRC.

Burundi, being located in the uppermost reaches of the Nile, the longest river in the world, is also a member of NBI (Nile Basin Initiative) that consists of the Nile Basin states. Formally launched in February 1999 by the Council of Ministers of Water Affairs of the Nile Basin States, NBI provides a unique forum for the countries of the Nile to move forward a cooperative process to realize tangible benefits in the Basin and build a solid foundation of trust and confidence. As its main activities, NBI; - Provides a platform for co-operation and for building working relationships between the riparian countries, - Provides an arrangement by which to move forward from discussion to action, and - Implements the “Strategic Action Program”.

NBI launched Strategic Action Program, which includes two complementary components: a basin-wide Shared Vision Program (SVP) and Subsidiary Action Programs (SAPs). Nile Equatorial Lakes Subsidiary Action program (NELSAP), a project identification and preparation facility within the framework of NBI, is to contribute to the eradication of poverty, to

3-4 promote economic growth, and to reverse environmental degradation in the NEL region. NELSAP oversees implementation of the jointly identified SAPs and promotes cooperative inter-country and in country investment projects related to the common use of the Nile Basin water resources.

3.2.2 Law and Regulations

The regulations governing the power sector are being formulated with the assistance of Canada. In order to avoid radical fluctuations in electricity rates, a controlling mechanism under the government jurisdiction may be incorporated. Other related laws and regulations include Land Acquisition Code (1986) and Forest Code (1985) both of which are under the process for revision. Furthermore, Environment Code (2000) mentions environmental impact assessment (EIA) and establishment of National Environmental Commission.

3.3 Government Policies and Programs

3.3.1 PRSP

Poverty Reduction Strategy Papers (PRSPs) describe a country's macroeconomic, structural and social policies and programs to promote growth and reduce poverty, as well as associated external financing needs. PRSPs are prepared by governments through a participatory process involving civil society and development partners, including the World Bank (WB) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF). The Burundi’s Full PRSP (hereafter called F-PRSP) is one of the latest PRSPs prepared in September 2006.

F-PRSP comes two and a half years after the approval in January 2004 by the Executive Boards of the WB and the IMF of the Interim PRSP (I-PRSP). It was drafted in a time of major political change characterized by the restoration of security and encouraging socio-economic developments. This strategy, which was developed through a participatory process, is a reflection of these developments and advances Burundi toward a better future through the reforms and programs it advocates. Its objective is to build a new society of hope for Burundians as the 21st century unfolds.

The PRSP presents a medium- and long-term development vision for Burundi and sets out bold poverty reduction objectives, which are consistent with the government’s 2005-2010 priority program and the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The foundation of the PRSP was laid on

3-5 the following principles so as to give substance to the vision: (i) refocusing the role of the State; (ii) maintenance of peace and security; (iii) capacity building; (iv) renewed economic growth; (v) stronger community involvement; (vi) affirmation of the central role of women; and (vii) promotion of a new partnership with donors and lenders.

From the quantitative and qualitative analyses and the conclusions of the sectoral and thematic poverty studies, it became clear that there was consensus on four main strategic axes: (i) Improving governance and security (ii) Promoting sustainable and equitable economic growth (iii) Developing human capital (iv) Combating HIV/AIDS

Referring to the second main axis of “promoting sustainable and equitable economic growth”, the PRSP specifically describes it as follows.

Quote: Burundi’s future will depend on its capacity to deliver strong and lasting economic growth to feed its ever growing population and reduce poverty. Promoting such growth is one of the priority objectives of the PRSP, and the priority actions selected cover the following areas: (i) strategic actions to revitalize sectors with growth potential, notably food and export crops, livestock production, trading, mining, and manufacturing; (ii) reviving the private sector; (iii) diversifying employment and income opportunities for rural communities, notably through microcredit and the promotion of highly labor-intensive works; (iv) rehabilitating and modernizing transport, energy, and telecommunications infrastructures, which are essential to generating externalities that enable the Burundian economy to become more competitive; and (v) restoring macroeconomic equilibria. Unquote

One of the factors explaining the lack of dynamism associated with agricultural activities, livestock rearing, fisheries, and small and medium-sized industries and enterprises (SMIs/SMEs) is the acute shortage of support infrastructure. Consequently, water and energy shortages and problems in the transport and telecommunications sectors continue to pose a major problem for attainment of the country’s objective of increasing and diversifying production.

In the field of energy, Burundi has significant hydraulic power potential. The PRSP mentioned that Burundi has 1,700 MW of its theoretical capacity, of which only 32 MW is being utilized at present.

3-6 Despite the country’s significant hydroelectric potential and heavy public investment in this sector in 20th century, the electrification rate remains very low (1.8 %). At the moment, national electricity production has declined as a result of scant investment over the past 15 years and the lack of rainfall. The sector is experiencing an energy deficit on the order of 10 MW, the result being the operation of the grids through load shedding and a slowdown in economic activity.

3.3.2 Sectoral Policy of MIN E&M

Sectoral policy of MIN E&M submitted to the government in May 2006 for finalization of PRSP, adopted by the ordinary meeting of the Council of Ministers, held on June 7, 2006. Energy policy out of sectoral policy of MIN E&M is as follows:

(1) Objectives

The objectives to be reached in the energy sector are classified in two groups, namely: - Total objectives - Specific objectives to each total objective

Total Objectives

(a) To ensure the access of most of the population the modern sources of energy, (b) To provide energy in quantity and quality sufficient for the industrial activities and artisanal, (c) To satisfy in energy the essential domestic requirements while taking care to safeguard the environment, (d) To rationally use the local sources of energy for the community and domestic use, and (e) To promote the use of fertilizer containing the peat in agriculture and horticulture.

Specific Objectives

(a) To ensure the access of most of the population the modern sources of energy - To increase the rate of electrification of the country by the extension of the networks.

(b) To provide energy in quantity and quality sufficient for the industrial activities and artisanal - To increase the national energy production by constructing HEPPs. - To improve the institutional effectiveness and the financial performances of the sector.

3-7 - To increase the energy effectiveness. - To promote the rational management of energy.

(d) To rationally use the local sources of energy for the community and domestic use - To satisfy the demand for peat, as well on the level of the households as on the level of the utility services to suppress the phenomena of deforestation.

(e) To promote the use of fertilizer containing the peat in agriculture and horticulture - To make available local manure in quality and quantity sufficient for the amendment of the grounds.

(2) Strategies

Strategies to achieve the above Objective are as follows:

(a) To increase the electrification ratio of the country through the extension of the networks - To increase the operational effectiveness of the services of REGIDESO and DGHER. - To carry out the extensions of the network and connections.

(b1) To increase the national energy production - To build new hydroelectric power stations. - To double the capacity of the existing hydroelectric power stations where it is possible. - To obtain a power station of 10 MW. - To rehabilitate the existing infrastructures to increase their output.

(b2) To improve the institutional effectiveness and the financial performances of the sector - To restructure the companies of electricity to make them more profitable and more effective. - To reinforce the structural and institutional capacities to face with the challenges effectively.

(c) To improve the security of electricity supply - To reinforce the reliability of the electrical supply network of transmission and distribution. - To continue the regional policy of inter-connected national networks.

(d) To satisfy the request digs peat about it to suppress the phenomenon of deforestation - To exploit the national natural energy of the peat. - To promote the hearths adapted to the level of the households and the communities. - To ensure the formation necessary to the techniques of use of the peat in particular in the production of building materials.

(e) To make available local manure in quality and quantity sufficient for the amendment of the grounds - To rehabilitate the pilot building site. - To reinforce the outputs.

3-8 3.4 Existing Power Generation Facilities

The total installed capacity in Burundi including imported electricity produced by hydropower is 57.7 MW as shown in Table 3.1. Domestic installed capacity of HEPPs is 32.2 MW as shown in Table 3.2 and Figure 3.3, and REGIDESO owned 31 MW (96.2%) out of 32.2 MW. In terms of the remaining 1.2 MW, micro HEPPs for a total of 0.5 MW are owned by DGHER and for a total of 0.7 MW are owned by private companies such as Parish1, OTB2, etc. There are 27 HEPPs in Burundi; however, only 3 HEPPs are interconnected to the National Grid at present. Burundi also imports electricity through the National Grid from Ruzizi I HEPP of SNEL and Ruzizi II HEPP of SINELAC, respectively for 8 and 12 MW as the maximum allowance for Burundi.

Therefore installed capacity of 27.3 MW produced by interconnected 3 HEPPs plus maximum 20 MW of imported production are available for electricity supply to Bujumbura thorough the National Grid.

Table 3.1 Composition of Power Plants in Burundi Installed Capacity Type of Power Plant Remarks (MW) Hydro Interconnected Rwegura 18 (Domestic) HEPPs Mugere 8 (REGIDESO) Ruvyironza 1.275 * Under Rehabilitation Sub Total 27.275 Isolated HEPPs REGIDESO 3.692 DGHER 0.503 Private 0.716 Sub Total 4.911 Total HEPPs 32.186 Hydro Ruzizi I HEPP (28.2MW) 8 8 MW for Burundi (Import) Ruzizi II HEPP (36MW) 12 12 MW for Burundi Total Import 20 Thermal Bujumbura Diesel Power Plant 5.5 * For Emergency Use Total Themal 5.5 Others Not Specified - Grand Total 57.686

1 : “Parish” is the name of the Roman Catholic Mission 2 : Burundi Tea Authority or Office du Thé du Burundi

3-9 Table 3.2 Hydro-Electric Power Plants Installed in Burundi Name of Name of Year of Installed Capacity HEPP Owner River Startup (MW) Remarks Rwegura REGIDESO Gitenge 1986 18 (6×3units) Network Interconnected (110kV) Mugere REGIDESO Mugere 1982 8 (2×4) Network Interconnected (35kV) Ruvyironza REGIDESO Ruvyironza 1980 0.850 (0.425×2) Network Interconnected (30kV) 1984 1.275 (0.425×3) * Under Rehabilitation Nyemanga REGIDESO Siguvyave 1988 1.440 (0.720×2) Southern Network (30kV) Muramvya Local Network (10kV) Gikonge REGIDESO Mubarazi 1982 0.850 (0.425×2) * Under Rehabilitation Kayenzi REGIDESO Kavuruga 1984 0.850 (0.425×2) North-eastern Network (30kV) Marangara REGIDESO Ndurumu 1986 0.240 (0.120×2) Northern Network (30kV) Karuzi Local Network (10kV) Buhiga REGIDESO Ndurumu 1984 0.240 * Out of Service Ruyigi REGIDESO Sanzu 1982 0.072 Ruyigi Local Network (10kV) (Sanzu) * Out of Service Utilization: Mission Kigwena DGHER Nzibwe 1984 0.050 * Under Rehabilitation Utilization: Health Care Center Butezi DGHER Sanzu 1990 0.240 * Under Rehabilitation Utilization: Mission + School Ryarusera DGHER Kagogo 1984 0.020 * Under Rehabilitation Nyabikere DGHER Nyabisi 1990 0.139 Utilization: Mission Murore DGHER Rusumo 1987 0.024 Utilization: Mission + Hospital Utilization: Mission + School Giheta DGHER Ruvyironza 1984 0.030 * Out of Service Private Utilization: Mission + School Mugera *1 Ruvyironza 1962 0.030 (Parish ) * Out of Service Private Utilization: Mission + Hospital Kiremba (Parish) Buyongwe 1981 0.064 Private Utilization: Mission Masango (Parish) K (G) itenge 1979 0.025 Private Utilization: Mission + Hospital Musongati (Parish) Nyamabuye 1981 0.006 Private Utilization: Mission + School Mutumba (Parish) Kirasa 1982 0.025 Private Utilization: Mission Mpinga (Parish) Mukanda 1983 0.016 Private Utilization: Tea Factory Teza *2 Nyabigondo 1971 0.360 (OTB ) (OTB: Burundi Tea Authority) Kiganda Private Kaniga 1984 0.044 Utilization: Mission + School (Parish) (Mucece) * Owner was changed to REGIDESO *3 Gisozi Private Kayokwe 1983 0.015 Utilization: Station of ISABU (Parish) * Out of Service Private Utilization: Mission + School Burasira (Seminar) Ruvubu 1961 0.025 Utilization: Mission + Hospital Kibimba Private Kaniga 1954 0.050 * Out of Service Utilization: Sanatorium Kibumbu Private Mushwabure 1953 0.056 * Out of Service Total 32.186 Excluding HEPPs under rehabilitation and out of service 29.258 Note: *1 “Parish” is the name of the Roman Catholic Mission *2 Burundi Tea Authority (Office du Thé du Burundi) *3 Institute of Agricultural Science of Burundi (Institut des Sciences Agronomiques du Burundi)

3-10 DGHER 1. 6 % Thermal Other Isolated 0% HEPPs 3.692MW Private Hydro 2.2% (Isolated) (REGIDESO) 11. 5 % 6.655GWh Ruvyironza 4.1% Hydro 1.275MW (Import) (REGIDESO) 4% 70.564GWh Under Rehabilitation Total Rwegura Total 52.6% 43.3% 32.186 18M W 16 2.9 3 8 Mugere MW (REGIDESO) GWh 8MW 24.9% Hydro 55.9% (REGIDESO) id (Interconnected) id r r G G l 85.719GWh l h a a n W n W io M io G t 5 % t 3 % a 7 7 a 8 9 N 2 . N 2 . . 4 . 5 r 7 8 r 6 9 o 2 o 5 F F 1

Figure 3.3 Hydro-Electric Power Plants Figure 3.4 Electricity Production in Burundi Installed in Burundi including Import in 2004

Figure 3.4 shows electricity production in Burundi including import in 2004. Total 163 GWh of electricity was produced or imported in 2004, and 95.9% of electricity seemed to be transmitted to Bujumbura thorough the National Grid.

The electric power in Burundi is mainly made up by the hydroelectricity and to a lesser extent by thermal electricity. Production by the other sources (photovoltaic, wind, etc.) is still marginal. State-owned diesel power plant of 5.5 MW (1.5 MW×2, 1.25 MW×2), constructed in Bujumbura in June 1996 and maintained as standby power for emergency, cannot operate due to the prohibitively high cost of fuel. But when the power transmission from Ruzizi I HEPP and Rwegura HEPP broke down in 1996 for six months, Bujumbura diesel power plant generated electricity of 3.35 GWh. As far as records are concerned, there is no evidence that this diesel power has ever been operated since 1996. Furthermore as there remain no operational records since 1999 on the other thermal power plants which are scattered locally, the present power production in Burundi comes virtually 100% from hydropower excepting, though, independent diesel generating facilities which are owned by hotels, manufacturing plants and so on and not reflected on the statistics.

As the most of existing HEPPs in Burundi were constructed in 1980s and also some were constructed in 1950s, problems due to aging facilities were found. According to Table 3.2, seven (7) HEPPs such as Buhiga and Ruyigi (Sanzu) of REGIDESO; Giheta of DGHER; Mugera, Gisozi, Kibimba and Kibumbu of private companies were out of service and five (5) HEPPs such as Ruvyironza and Gikonge of REGIDESO; Kigwena, Butezi and Ryarusera of DGHER were under rehabilitation.

3-11 Under these circumstances, Burundi’s power import is increasing year by year. The import share in the total electricity production was only 12.4% in 1987 when the first import from Ruzizi I began. But the import dependence in 2004 is as high as 44.3% of the total electricity production (see Figure 3.4). For reference, the import purchase of electricity from Ruzizi II (SINELAC) is about 2.0 ¢/kWh.

3.5 Transmission and Distribution Facilities

The National Grid consisting of transmission lines (hereafter called T/L) of 110 kV, 70 kV, 35 kV, 30 kV and 10 kV as shown in Figure 3.5. Interconnected T/Ls of 110 kV and 70 kV are extended to DRC, respectively. There are three (3) substations (hereafter called S/S) in capital Bujumbura for distribution, namely SNEL, RN1 and OZONE. These S/Ss step down reached electricity ranging from 100 kV to30 kV into 6.6 kV. Figure 3.6 also shows the network diagram of the National Grid.

Electricity from Ruzizi I HEPP is transmitted through high voltage (hereafter called HV) lines of 70 kV and reached to SNEL S/S, which located in northern part of Bujumbura.

Electricity from Ruzizi II HEPP (Mururu 2) is transmitted through HV lines of 110 kV and reached to RN1 S/S, which located in eastern part of Bujumbura. Electricity from Rwegura, largest HEPP in Burundi, is also transmitted through same HV lines of 110 kV from Bubanza and reached to RN1 S/S. Bujumbura and Gitega, which is the old capital of Burundi, is also interconnected between RN1 S/S and ZEGE S/S through HV lines of 110 kV.

Mugere HEPP, located at the Mugere river in the southern part of Bujumbura province, was constructed in 1982 with the assistance of People's Republic of China (hereafter called PRC). OZONE S/S was also constructed by PRC for the purpose of electricity distribution for Bujumbura. OZONE S/S is located in southeastern part of Bujumbura and received the electricity from Mugere HEPP through medium voltage (hereafter called MV) lines of 35 kV.

The problems relating to T/L and S/S include the aging of switchgears at the existing S/Ss. An aid from Europe for replacing them is expected. Regarding the existing T/Ls, damaged by the civil war, the electric cables and steel transmission towers were replaced and have been kept in good order, but the communication lines need rehabilitation. At present radio communications are employed. The T/L connecting Ruzizi I with SNEL S/S uses 70 kV cables, but the steel towers, upgraded at the time of replacement, are capable of holding 110 kV cables, and if cables and S/S are upgraded and it seems to be so intended, 110 kV power can be received in the future.

3-12

Source: REGIDESO Figure 3.5 National Grid in Burundi

3-13 Bujumbura

Source: Etude D'Implantation De Nouveaux Postes De Repatition D'Electricite A Bujumbura, Rapport Final, Juillet 2001 Figure 3.6 Network Diagram of the National Grid

3-14 3.6 Power Supply and Demand

Figure 3.7 shows the supplied and consumed energy and loss of Burundi that we have prepared by compiling data from study reports and statistics of MIN E&M as listed hereunder.

No.11 “Audit des Installations de Production, Transport et Distribution d’Eau et d’Electricite de la REGIDESO”, Sogreah, June 2001 No.17 Etude du PreFaisabilite et de Faisabilite des Amenagements Hydroelectriques de Kabu16, Kabu23, Masango et Rushiha, “Revision Simplifiee du Plan Directeur National D'Electrification”, Sogreah, June 1995 No.23 “Statistiques et Bilan Energertiques”, “Statistiques de L'eau Potable”, Periode: Annee 2003, MIN E&M, December 2004 No.24 “Statistiques et Bilan Energertiques”, “Statistiques de L'eau Potable”, Periode: Annee 2004, MIN E&M, December 2005

350 Legend Supplied Energy, Whole Burundi Sogreah 1995 300 gh Supplied Energy, Network Interconnected Hi e ddl 250 Consumed Energy, Whole Burundi Mi Consumed Energy, Network Interconnected Low 200 Consumed Energy, Bujumbura High e 150 Middl 100 Sogreah 2001 50

Supplied/Consumed Energy (GWh) Energy Supplied/Consumed 0 100 Network Interconnected 80 Whole Burundi 60 40 20 Total Loss Loss (%) Total 0

1981 1991 2001 2010 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Figure 3.7 Supplied/Consumed Energy and Loss

The years with missing broken lines and columns in the graph mean there are no existing data available. Specifically, the total loss (column) represents the difference between the supplied energy and consumed energy and is shown only when both data are available for a given year

It is known from Figure 3.7 that the consumed energy abruptly drops during the years of civil war

3-15 and the total loss in 1997 is strikingly high. Considering the state of war, however, the loss exceeding 80% is still hard to regard realistic. The pre-war period indicated more or less 20% total loss and the post-war period indicated 30~40% total loss. According to the interviews we had with REGIDESO, the post-war total loss was about 25% and the pre-war total loss was about 13% without information on the breakdown due to the absence of data on transmission and distribution losses.

There are various demand forecasts conducted by consulting firms such as Sogreah, Lahmeyer and so on with widely different views due to the different time of analysis and different premises adopted. Especially, the consumption as affected by the civil war dropped remarkably from 1995 to 1997, the base year for the result of analysis set either prior to or after the war produced completely different forecasts. This report adopted, fore reference, the two forecasts prepared by Sogreah, the analysis results of 1995 (Data No. 7) and the analysis results of 2001 (Data No. 11), because both of them, copies given us, present not only the study results but also the conditions and the process of analysis in a way easy to digest. The data plotted on the figure represent the consumed energy for whole Burundi.

The middle and high cases extracted from the Sogreah’s analysis which was conducted in 2001 (hereafter called Sogreah 2001) are shown in Table 3.3 and Table 3.4 respectively. The annual demand growth rate was estimated at 3.3% for the middle case and at 4.4% for the high case respectively. The actual demand transition up to 2004, shown in Figure 3.7, is seemingly leveling off after 2002 but it is hardly assumed to reflect the intrinsic demand. It is due to the load shedding that has been practiced in Burundi to control the demand and make up for the supply capacity shortage.

The fundamental structure where the supply capacity stays short of the potential demand that grows steadily is one of the major problems of the power sector of Burundi and a fundamental cause impeding the country’s industrial development with Bujumbura at the center.

The interview with REGIDESO revealed that the maximum supply capacity of 26 MW (including isolated HEPPs) to cover the potential demand of 45 MW is causing a chronic shortage of 19 MW. The load shedding has to be practiced for this reason. In the actual practice, the supply stoppage areas and time schedules are pre-announced through newspapers and radios. The daily load is hard to grasp due to the load shedding, but the peak time is in the evening from 18 to 21 hours.

3-16 Table 3.3 Demand per Geographic Areas and Necessary Production (MWh) 2000 – 2010 (Middle Case) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Consumed Energy Total Demand (Whole Burundi) 102,994 126,546 134,166 143,200 153,213 164,091 Percentage of Bujumbura (%) 74.7% 75.5% 73.7% 71.8% 69.9% 68.1% Bujumbura 76,897 95,52498,874 102,763 107,079 111,699 Network Interconnected 98,161 120,610 134,166 143,200 153,213 164,091 Necessary Production (Supplied Energy) Total Loss (%) 39% 33% 30% 26% 22% 20% Network Interconnected 136,783 160,412 174,416 180,431 186,920 196,910 Peak Power (MW) 26.2 MW 31.6 MW 34.3 MW 35.5 MW 36.8 MW 38.8 MW

Source: Audit des Installations de Production, Transport et Distribution d’Eau et d’Electricite de la REGIDESO, June 2001

Table 3.4 Demand per Geographic Areas and Necessary Production (MWh) 2000 – 2010 (High Case) 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Consumed Energy Total Demand (Whole Burundi) 102,994 129,546 138,959 151,251 165,900 182,168 Percentage of Bujumbura (%) 74.7% 76.1% 73.7% 71.0% 68.3% 65.8% Bujumbura 76,897 98,524102,462 107,455 113,316 119,804 Network Interconnected 98,161 123,610 138,959 151,251 165,900 182,168 Necessary Production (Supplied Energy) Total Loss (%) 39% 33% 30% 26% 22% 20% Network Interconnected 136,783 164,402 180,647 190,576 202,398 218,602 Peak Power (MW) 26.2 MW 32.4 MW 35.6 MW 37.5 MW 39.8 MW 43.0 MW

Source: Audit des Installations de Production, Transport et Distribution d’Eau et d’Electricite de la REGIDESO, June 2001

As was mentioned in “3.4 Existing Power Generation Facilities”, the total installed capacity of HEPPs interconnected to T/L and capable of sending power to Bujumbura is 47.3 MW, the breakdown of which is shown in Table 3.1. Outside of this capacity, Bujumbura diesel power plant having 5.5 MW capacity is being mothballed due to the fuel price upsurge and available for emergency use only.

3-17 Due to the hydropower-lopsided structure to, the available supply capacity drops below one half during the dry season (generally June through September). As of August 2006, the available supply capacity was 23 MW, representing 40% of the total installed capacity. The capacity decline reflects the drop in the generating capacity stemming from the lowered water level of reservoirs and the decreased river discharge. In the last few years, particularly, the water level of reservoirs has been low owing to the lasting drought.

3.7 Power Trade with Other Countries

To meet its requirements in electricity, Burundi must import electricity through the National Grid from Ruzizi I HEPP and Ruzizi II HEPP in DRC, respectively for 8 and 12 MW as the maximum allowance for Burundi.

Ruzizi I HEPP is located at the Ruzizi river outlet from Lake Kivu and managed by SNEL. Ruzizi I HEPP was constructed in 1958 along with Ntaruka HEPP located in northern Rwanda. At present the right of using Ntaruka HEPP belongs to Rwanda and the right of using Ruzizi I HEPP belongs to Burundi and DRC. Burundi has the free right of being supplied maximum 8 MW out of 28.2 MW which is the total installed capacity of Ruzizi I HEPP. Due to aging facilities and water shortage, however, electricity supply from Ruzizi I HEPP for Burundi was only 2 MW as of August 2006. Electricity from Ruzizi I HEPP is transmitted through HV lines of 70 kV and reached to SNEL S/S. Burundi also exports electricity to DRC. Step downed electricity at SNEL S/S is transmitted to Uvira in DRC through low voltage (hereafter called LV) lines of 15 kV.

Ruzizi II HEPP, managed by SINELAC, was constructed in 1989. Burundi buys one third of electricity production for import, which should be 12 MW out of total installed capacity of 36 MW. However due to water shortage problem like Ruzizi I HEPP, electricity supply from Ruzizi II HEPP for Burundi was also decreased to 7 MW as of August 2006.

In the future, T/L in Burundi will be developed and interconnected to the neighboring countries such as Rwanda and Tanzania as shown in Figure 3.8. Power trade with other countries will be actively carried out after the development of T/L.

3-18

Source: Study on Power Transmission Lines Related to the Rusumo Falls Hydropower Station, AfDF, September 2006 Figure 3.8 Future T/L Network of Burundi and its Neighboring Countries

3-19 3.8 Electricity Tariff

The electricity tariff structures covering 2001 through 2004 are shown in Table 3.5. In the table, the low voltage (hereafter called LV) is for individual household subscribers and the MV is for business subscribers such as industrial plants. The charged cost is the sum of the fixed service charge and the amount of used electricity multiplied by the tariff. The service charge for individual subscribers is a small amount fixed according to classification. (The service charges for business subscribers are as described in the table.)

Table 3.5 Electricity Tariff Structures 2001 – 2004 Electricity Tariff (FBU) Clasiffication 2001 2002 2003 2004 Low Voltage (LV) Resident Social Tariff 0 ~ 150 kWh/2month 21.60 23.00 26.50 32.00 151 ~ 300 kWh/2month 24.7126.00 30.00 36.00 High Standing 301 ~ 750 kWh/2month 44.20 49.00 56.00 67.00 751 ~ kWh/2month 56.6363.00 72.00 100.00 Commerce 0 ~ 300 kWh/2month 53.6766.00 75.50 91.00 301 ~ 1,000 kWh/2month 58.9273.00 83.50 100.00 1,001 ~ kWh/2month 64.1879.00 90.00 108.00 Administration 65.60 73.00 83.50 100.00 Medium Voltage (MV) Premium Fix of Contracted Power (CP) kWh/1month 1,684.70 1,860.00 2,120.00 2,544.00 Super Premium Fix of CP kWh/1month 3,369.40 3,720.00 4,240.00 5,088.00 Energy (Utilization of CP) 0 ~ 150 kWh/1month 62.71 70.00 80.00 96.00 151 ~ 450 kWh/1month 40.2645.00 51.00 61.00 451 ~ kWh/1month 21.0030.00 34.00 41.00 (Without Utilization of CP) 64.18 80.00 91.00 109.00 DGHER - - 35.00 42.00 Street Lighting - - 83.50 100.00

According to REGIDESO, the present averaged electricity tariff is 80 FBU/kWh (about 8.0 ¢/kWh) and is put under the government control to prevent any radical increases. As the generating cost of the diesel power is 250 FBU/kWh (about 25 ¢/kWh), a sharp tariff increase becomes necessary if it is directly reflected on the tariff. To avoid this, the tariff covers only the O&M (Operation and Maintenance) cost (since REGIDESO is responsible for O&M of diesel power plant) and the power plant itself, fuel, and the transmission that are not covered by the tariff are provided as supplies from the government. (Subsidies from the government are not paid to REGIDESO, but supplies in kind

3-20 are provided for cost items that are not recovered by the tariff.)

3.9 Capacity Development

REGIDESO, as part of training programs, participates in various kinds of international conferences and training programs sponsored by donor countries. REGIDESO owns a training center next to OZONE S/S. (The training center is a facility built by Burundi and has no financial connection with PRC.) We learned through interviews with REGIDESO that they do have some training programs but the fund shortage is preventing the actual practice, and the details of the programs were not made available.

On the other hand, the interview with Mugere HEPP, one of our reconnaissance sites, revealed that the turbine is to be overhauled in 2007 and PRC is planning to send their engineers. Mugere HEPP has been on a five-yearly maintenance assistance by PRC and therefore, as we observed, is well maintained. Furthermore, as was mentioned in “3.4 Existing Power Generation Facilities”, while the five (5) HEPPs in Burundi are under a rehabilitation process, Ruvyironza and Gikonge owned by REGIDESO are being rehabilitated by PRC. From these findings, it is assumed that PRC is providing REGIDESO with multiple technical transfer arrangements and capacity development programs.

3.10 Environmental Impact Assessment System

As is pointed out in “3.2.2. Law and Regulations”, the environment impact assessment (EIA) system is contained in the Environment Code (2000) which we failed to obtain this time. But the following documents were obtained as EIA reports that had been carried out in the past.

No. 9 Etude de PreFaisabilite et de Faisabilite des Amenagements Hydroelectriques de Kabu16, Kabu23, Masango et Rushiha, “Volume 4 Impact des Projects sur l'Environnement”, Sogreah, September 1993

The composition of Data No. 9 is introduced below. The past EIA follow the regulations of the donor countries, and it is assumed that the process stipulated in the Environment Code also follow those regulations. The results of EIA must be submitted to the National Environmental Commission, assessed and approved by them.

3-21

Volume 4: Impact of the Projects on the Environment Synopsis

Chapter 1 Introduction 1.1 Objectives of the report 1.2 Methodology and carried out tasks 1.3 Description of the projects

Chapter 2 Objectives and Contents of the study

Chapter 3 Physical Environment 3.1 Geological base 3.2 Relief result of the geological and geomorphological history 3.3 Characteristics of the climate

Chapter 4 Biological Environment 4.1 Natural vegetation 4.2 Terrestrial wild fauna 4.3 Fish (aquatic habitat) 4.4 Artificial timberings 4.5 Characteristics on water of the rivers

Chapter 5 Population 5.1 Density of population 5.2 Socio-economic characteristics of the population 5.3 Characteristics of the families 5.4 Characteristics of the residences

Chapter 6 Health

Chapter 7 Agriculture 7.1 Utilization of the grounds 7.2 Log exploitations and cultures 7.3 Exchanges in the exploitations 7.4 Breeding in the farms 7.5 Problems of the exploitations

Chapter 8 Impacts of the Projects

3-22 Chapter 4 Outline of Bujumbura Area

4.1 Overview of Bujumbura

4.1.1 General Description

Bujumbura, the capital city of Burundi, located at 3°22'34" South, 29°21'36" East. The city lies at the northeastern corner of Lake Tanganyika and, with population of 365,000 in 2003. Bujumbura is Burundi's largest city and its administrative, communications, and economic center. Bujumbura is also Burundi’s main port and ships most of the country’s chief export, coffee, as well as cotton, skins, and tin ore.

Gitega, the second largest city lying east of Bujumbura, is the old capital of Burundi. Bujumbura grew from a small village after it became a military post in German East Africa in 1889. After World War I it was made the administrative center of the Belgian League of Nations mandate of Ruanda-Urundi. The city’s name was changed from Usumbura to Bujumbura when Burundi became independent in 1962.

The city center is a colonial town with a large market, the national stadium, a large mosque, and a cathedral. Museums in the city include the Burundi Museum of Life and the Burundi Geological Museum. Other nearby attractions include the Ruzizi National Park, a rock at Mugere marking what claims to be the place where David Livingstone and Henry Morton Stanley met (although the meeting is usually thought to have happened in Ujiji in Tanzania) and the source of the southernmost tributary of the Nile, described locally as the source of the Nile.

Ferries sail from Bujumbura to Kigoma in Tanzania, while the city is also home to the Bujumbura International Airport and the University of Bujumbura.

4.1.2 Situation of Electrification

According to the website of ELECTROGAZ of Rwanda, formerly REGIDESO of Burundi and ELECTROGAZ were one organization. In 1939 the REGIDESO Ruanda-Urundi was created with its head quarters at Usumbura (Bujumbura) and the head office at Bukavu in DRC. REGIDESO, became a public company in 1962, was separated to Rwanda Region in Kigali and Burundi Region in Bujumbura on November 1, 1963.

4-1 Thorough the National Grid, 95.9% (in case of 2004, see Figure 3.4) of electricity production in Burundi including import is transmitted to Bujumbura. There are three (3) S/Ss in Bujumbura for distribution, namely SNEL, RN1 and OZONE as shown in Figure 3.6. These S/Ss step down reached electricity ranging from 100 kV to 30 kV into 6.6 kV.

Bujumbura city and its surrounding electrified area (hereafter called Bujumbura area) is said to be the most electrified area in Burundi, however, electrification ratio of Bujumbura area is still very low compared with other country’s capital.

As of 1993, electrification ratio of Bujumbura was about 27% (13,940 domestic subscribers for approximately 51,180 households), although electrification ratio of whole Burundi was only 1.5% (18,909 domestic subscribers for approximately 1,260,000 households).

However electrification ratio of Bujumbura in 2000 was decreased to 21.5% (17,617 domestic subscribers for approximately 81,846 households). The assumable main reasons are such that the distribution of electricity is unable to match with the growing population in Bujumbura and the power supply itself is in shortage hampering the subscribers’ increase in proportion to the population growth.

The study team, therefore, conducted a site reconnaissance on the electrification status of Bujumbura city. According to REGIDESO, the following five areas are planned for the future development (see Figure 4.1).

(a) Kanyosha and its southern area: Electricity has been distributed since 2004, but poor electricity supply and also not sufficient water supply. (b) Gihosya and Gasenyi: Poor electricity supply and also not sufficient water supply. (c) Buterere: No electricity and no water supply (d) Gasekebuye (New Town): No electricity and no water supply. (e) Carama (New Town): No electricity and no water supply

In Kamenge which we passed en route to Carama, newly developed distribution lines were observed.

REGIDESO desires to increase the number of subscribers to raise tariff income and, for that purpose, wants to expand the distribution network to un-electrified areas, and furthermore, as a prerequisite for that, are extremely anxious to increase the supplied production of electricity to the National Grid which serves Bujumbura. In reality, however, the supply capacity is running behind the demand at the moment, compelling the exercise of the load shedding to put the demand under control.

4-2

(e)

Photo 5.1 (2)

(c)

(b)

Photo 5.2 (1), (2)

(d) Photo 5.1 (1)

(a)

Source: Etude D'Implantation De Nouveaux Postes De Repatition D'Electricite A Bujumbura, Rapport Final, Juillet 2001 Figure 4.1 Map of Bujumbura City Central

4-3 4.2 Power Supply and Demand of Bujumbura Area

Figure 3.7 shows the supplied/consumed energy and loss in Burundi, but also shows, in parallel, the consumed energy in Bujumbura (area). According to the study reports prepared in the past, the latest record available on Bujumbura’s consumed energy is that of 1999, i.e. 80 GWh. It comprises 76.8% of the consumed energy in whole Burundi in the same year (104 GWh).

Table 4.1 shows the consumed energy in Bujumbura classified by sector (Residential, Industrial, Commercial and Public) from 1988 through 1999. The same is graphically shown in Figure 4.2.

Table 4.1 Consumed Energy in Bujumbura by Sector (GWh) 1988 – 1999

Sector 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999

Residential 19.43 21.12 23.24 26.92 29.11 31.35 - - - 15.73 22.40 21.49

∆a 22.5% 25.9% 25.3% 26.4% 28.8% 32.4% - - - 24.9% 28.8% 26.9%

∆b 8.7% 10.0% 15.8%8.1% 7.7% - - - -49.8%* 42.4% -4.1%

Industrial 32.06 26.46 30.93 33.12 32.84 26.22 23.26 22.56 16.10 19.55 18.95 22.51

∆a 37.1% 32.4% 33.7% 32.5% 32.5% 27.1% - - - 31.0% 24.4% 28.1%

∆b -17.5% 16.9% 7.1% -0.8% -20.2% -11.3% -3.0% -28.6% 21.4% -3.1% 18.8%

Commercial 10.63 10.03 12.98 15.01 16.43 15.09 - - - 10.32 12.31 11.84

∆a 12.3% 12.3% 14.2% 14.7% 16.3% 15.6% - - - 16.4% 15.8% 14.8%

∆b -5.6% 29.4% 15.6%9.5% -8.2% - - - -31.6%* 19.3% -3.8%

Public 24.40 24.09 24.57 26.81 22.71 24.21 - - - 17.46 24.08 24.13

∆a 28.2% 29.5% 26.8% 26.3% 22.5% 25.0% - - - 27.7% 31.0% 30.2%

∆b -1.3% 2.0% 9.1%-15.3% 6.6% - - - -27.9%* 37.9% 0.2%

Total BJM 86.52 81.70 91.72 101.86 101.09 96.87 - - - 63.06 77.74 79.97

∆b -5.6% 12.3% 11.1%-0.8% -4.2% - - - -34.9%* 23.3% 2.9% Note: ∆a: Ratio of the sector in total Bujumbura ∆b: % change over previous year in the same sector *: % change over 1993

From this figure, it is assumed to be difficult to use the post-war data for the two years (1997~1999) alone to forecast the consumed energy trend of Bujumbura after 1999. However, judging from the growth trend of the consumed energy of whole Burundi up until 2004, and the fact the Bujumbura’s share of the consumed energy in whole Burundi is 76.8% in 1999 as the main consuming area, it is clear that the consumed energy of each sector of Bujumbura as a whole should be on a growth trend after 1999.

4-4 150 Legend

Supplied Energy, Whole Burundi Supplied Energy, Network Interconnected

Consumed Energy, Whole Burundi Consumed Energy, Network Interconnected 100 Consumed Energy, Bujumbura

50 Industrial Public Residential Supplied/Consumed Energy (GWh) Energy Supplied/Consumed Commercial

1981 1991 2001 2010 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Figure 4.2 Consumed Energy in Bujumbura by Sector

4.3 Power Supply and Demand Prospect of Bujumbura Area

As the economic growth of Burundi progresses in the future, and the local development is promoted, while the National Grid is broadly expanded, the power consuming areas are expected to diversify not only in Bujumbura area but also widely throughout Burundi. In the absence of any actual data regarding electrification ratios after 1999 and with uncertainty about the current electrification status of Bujumbura, however, we are discussing the future development based on the demand forecast of Sogreah 2001 as shown in “3.6 Power Supply and Demand” and the following report prepared by Lahmeyer on the Bujumbura’s electrification plan (hereafter called Lahmeyer 2001).

No.14 Etude D'Implantation De Nouveaux Postes De Repatition D'Electricite A Bujumbura, Rapport Final, Lahmeyer, Juillet 2001

Lahmeyer 2001 designates 2015 as the target year and sets the electrification ratio of Bujumbura in 2015 at the four cases of (i) status unchanged (20.8%), (ii) 25% attained, (iii) 50% attained and (iv) 95% attained, and calculates the number of subscribers needed to attain each of the target ratios. The results of the simulation, as are shown in Table 4.2, indicate (i) 800 new subscriber/year, (ii) 1,300 new subscriber/year, (3) 3,700 new subscriber/year and (iv) 8,000 new subscriber/year are needed to attain each of the targets respectively.

4-5

According to Table 2.1, the latest statistical population of Bujumbura in 2003 is 365,382. Using 3.97 person/household for 2003 (see Table 4.2) which is derived by the formula adopted in the demand forecast of Lahmeyer 2001, the number of households was calculated as 92,036. On the other hand, the statistical data of MIN E&M of 2003 (Data No. 23) showed the number of subscribers in 2003 in Bujumbura was 20,754, and therefore the electrification ratio of Bujumbura at 2003 is calculated as 22.5%. Furthermore, from the difference of the numbers of subscribers between 2000 and 2003, the new subscriber/year was calculated as 1,046.

The demand forecast of Sogreah 2001 also attempted to find the ratio of the consumed energy in Bujumbura over that of whole Burundi. According to the report, the ratio of the consumed energy of Bujumbura over that of whole Burundi for the middle case was 74.7% in 2000, 75.5% in 2002 and 73.7% in 2004 (see Table 3.3) respectively. Applying these ratios to the actual consumed energy of whole Burundi during 2000 through 2004, the consumed energy in Bujumbura were calculated and shown in Figure 4.3. In the same Figure, the results of Sogreah 2001 demand forecast as per table 3.3 and Table 3.4 were also shown in parallel.

150 Legend

Supplied Energy, Whole Burundi Supplied Energy, Network Interconnected h Hig Consumed Energy, Whole Burundi dle Consumed Energy, Network Interconnected Mid 100 Consumed Energy, Bujumbura Sogreah 2001

st ca re Fo

50 Industrial Public Residential Supplied/Consumed Energy (GWh) Energy Supplied/Consumed Commercial

1981 1991 2001 2010 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Figure 4.3 Demand Prospect of Bujumbura

4-6 Table 4.2 Electrification Ratio of Bujumbura 1998 – 2015 Forecasted Number of Subscribers Forecasted Natural Number of Migration Number of Actual Level (20.8%) 25% of Households in 2015 50% of Households in 2015 95% of Households in 2015 Year Number of Increase Persons / Ratio Households Inhabitants Ratio Households 800 Subscribers/Year 1300 Subscribers/Year 3700 Subscribers/Year 8000 Subscribers/Year New Total ER* New Total ER* New Total ER* New Total ER* 1998 308,560 2.73% 0.5% 4.05 76,214 - 17,716 23.2% - 17,716 23.2% - 17,716 23.2% - 17,716 23.2% 1999 318, 557 2.72% 0.5% 4.03 78,975 -1287 16,429 20.8% -1287 16,429 20.8% -1287 16,429 20.8% -1287 16,429 20.8% 2000 328,912 2.71% 0.5% 4.02 81,846 1188 17,617 21.5% 1188 17,617 21.5% 1188 17,617 21.5% 1188 17,617 21.5% 2001 339,642 2.70% 0.6% 4.00 84,829 800 18,417 21.7% 1300 18,917 22.3% 3700 21,317 25.1% 8000 25,617 30.2% 2002 350,764 2.69% 0.6% 3.99 87,933 800 19,217 21.9% 1300 20,217 23.0% 3700 25,017 28.5% 8000 33,617 38.2% 2003 362,298 2.68% 0.6% 3.97 91,161 800 20,017 22.0% 1300 21,517 23.6% 3700 28,717 31.5% 8000 41,617 45.7% 2004 374,264 2.67% 0.6% 3.96 94,522 800 20,817 22.0% 1300 22,817 24.1% 3700 32,417 34.3% 8000 49,617 52.5% 4-7 2005 386,682 2.66% 0.7% 3.94 98,021 800 21,617 22.1% 1300 24,117 24.6% 3700 36,117 36.8% 8000 57,617 58.8% 2006 399,576 2.65% 0.7% 3.93 101,665 800 22,417 22.0% 1300 25,417 25.0% 3700 39,817 39.2% 8000 65,617 64.5% 2007 412,970 2.64% 0.7% 3.92 105,464 800 23,217 22.0% 1300 26,717 25.3% 3700 43,517 41.3% 8000 73,617 69.8% 2008 426,890 2.63% 0.7% 3.90 109,423 800 24,017 21.9% 1300 28,017 25.6% 3700 47,217 43.2% 8000 81,617 74.6% 2009 441,365 2.62% 0.8% 3.89 113,554 800 24,817 21.9% 1300 29,317 25.8% 3700 50,917 44.8% 8000 89,617 78.9% 2010 456,423 2.61% 0.8% 3.87 117,864 800 25,617 21.7% 1300 30,617 26.0% 3700 54, 617 46.3% 8000 97,617 82.8% 2011 472,097 2.60% 0.8% 3.86 122,364 800 26,417 21.6% 1300 31,917 26.1% 3700 58,317 47.7% 8000 105,617 86.3% 2012 488,421 2.59% 0.9% 3.84 127,065 800 27,217 21.4% 1300 33,217 26.1% 3700 62,017 48.8% 8000 113,617 89.4% 2013 505,432 2.58% 0.9% 3.83 131,979 800 28,017 21.2% 1300 34,517 26.2% 3700 65,717 49.8% 8000 121,617 92.1% 2014 523,169 2.57% 0.9% 3.82 137,118 800 28,817 21.0% 1300 35,817 26.1% 3700 69,417 50.6% 8000 129,617 94.5% 2015 541,674 2.56% 1.0% 3.80 142,495 800 29,617 20.8% 1300 37,117 26.0% 3700 73,117 51.3% 8000 137,617 96.6% Note: * Electrification Ratio

From Figure 4.3, consumed energy of Bujumbura in 2004 is obtained for each of the three cases, i.e. (a) Bujumbura’s ratio used in Sogreah 2001 is applied to the actual consumed energy of whole Burundi, (b) that of Sogreah 2001 (middle case), and (c) that of Sogreah 2001 (high case). The consumed energy of Bujumbura in 2004 is 93 GWh in case (a), 98.8 GWh in case (b), and 102.5 GWh in case (c), respectively.

The above discussion leads us to assume the present status of Bujumbura is under the electrification ratio of about 22.5%, the consumed energy of 90 to 95 GWh which comprises 71 to 75% of whole Burundi’s consumed energy.

It is assumed that Bujumbura potentially has a capacity of 98 to 103 GWh of consumed energy at the time of 2004. It is also indicated that in order for Burundi to steadily attain poverty reduction and economic growth, Bujumbura will need a consumed energy of 110 to 120 GWh in 2010. With such future perspective, efforts for securing stable power sources to feed the National Grid and further expanding the distribution lines in Bujumbura area are urgently needed.

4-8 Chapter 5 Regional-Development Effects of Electrification

5.1 Background

The population of Burundi keeps increasing every year as described in Chapter 2. The refugee's return will be expected to advance in the near future, especially; people who find jobs are expected to concentrate into the urban area such as Bujumbura, as peacemaking process after civil war is advancing steadily. According to the USAID1 report, the labor force is expected to increase by 2.3% a year, and the employment or the income chance for about 90,000 new workers will be necessary every year. The housing sites houses are being newly developed in the periphery of Bujumbura city, in preparation for the population growth. But the infrastructure lines other than the road such as electricity and water service have not been facilitated yet (See Photo 5.1).

(1) Gasukebuye New Town (2) Carama New Town Photo 5.1 Promotion residential quarter in Bujumbura

On the other hand, there exist workers’ dwelling districts with vigor in the circumference of Bujumbura city center. We can see brand-new distribution lines in these districts, and the family who needs electrification should apply house wiring and meter installation to REGIDESO (REGIE DE PROCDUCTION ET DE DISTRIBUTION D'EAU ET D'ELECTRICITE) (See Photo 5.2). The power supply is unstable and insufficient, while the potential power demand is increasing as described in Chapter 4. Therefore, the rolling blackout is always executed in Bujumbura city, and there are some districts where the opportunity to secure power supply for 24 hours continuously only once a week. The electric shortage becomes the obstruction factor to promote regional industries in the developing district such as Bujumbura city where life materials can be obtained to some degree.

1 : USAID, Burundi Economic Performance Assessment, August 2005

5-1 Without electricity, the development more than the present level cannot be expected, but with the sufficient and stable electricity, more efficient industries (industrial promotion) and more convenient life (improvement of life level) can be expected.

(1) Buyenzi District (2) Car renovation shop Photo 5.2 Worker district where vigor is filled in Bujumbura

The number of employers of each economic activity sector is shown in Table 5.1, and the number of workers of each economic activity is shown in Table 5.2. The composition of labor force is distributed evenly in order of public service, manufacturing (food and drink, fiber, clothes, and leather), agriculture/livestock farming, and shop/restaurant/hotel. And as for the employment organization, there are a lot of numbers of shops/restaurants/hotels next to public service, and 70% of the shops/restaurants/hotels in Burundi are in Bujumbura city.

(1) Tanganyika lake (2) Resort hotel in Tanganyika lakefront Photo 5.3 Tanganyika lake and Resort hotel in Tanganyika lakefront

5-2 Table 5.1 Number of employers according to economic activity section (to 31 December)

The stage where Bujumbura city stands now necessitates regional developments that will help raise the living standards of the people by providing the employments and income sources as well as the basic infrastructure. In the process of raising the living standards as part of the regional development, the development of the basic infrastructure initiated by the government and the industrial development that lead to creating employments and income sources based on such infrastructure should be the priority policies. The stable and sufficient supply of electric power continues to be an indispensable element of the infrastructure throughout the initiation and expansion processes of the regional development.

5-3 Table 5.2 Number of active workers for each economic activity (to 31 December)

5-4

5.2 Potential

Sufficient and stable power supply is indispensable for regional development in Bujumbura city as described in Section 5.1. In this section, the potentiality of regional promotion in Bujumbura city by securing sufficient and stable power supply is examined in consideration of the contents of Section 5.1.

[Raising the living standard of people] In Bujumbura city, rolling blackouts are executed due to shortage of power supply. A worker living in Buyenzi district of Bujumbura city said through the interview, that the usage of electricity under the condition of the opportunity to secure power supply for 24 hours continuously only once a week was only a battery charging and a light, and heat source for cooking was charcoal. The worker also said, that in case of supplying the steady electric power continuously, they want to buy the home appliances such as televisions, refrigerators and electric heat sources for cooking and to use them in life. However, the current state is a vicious circle shown in the following, and it cannot be hoped for people to raise their living standard.

(1) Electric shortage; rolling blackout -> (2) Decreasing buying intention for electrical appliances, no desire to improve living standard -> (3) Impossibility of increasing of electric rates -> (4) Impossibility of implementation of diesel power generation -> Return to (1)

[Promotion of small and medium-sized enterprise] Insufficient and unstable power supply in Bujumbura city exerts a big influence on small and medium-sized enterprise level managed in Bujumbura city. A manager who runs the car repair industry in Buyenzi district of Bujumbura city said through the interview, that a few increasing of electric rates were toleratable if the steady electric power without the power failure is supplied, because the unstable electric power with rolling blackouts is a problem in work. The workers also said, that in case of supplying the steady electric power, they can always use the electric equipments and the work of the welding etc. makes progress in work. However, the current state is a vicious circle shown in the following similarly with the living standard case, and it cannot be developed to develop better than the present condition.

5-5 (1) Electric shortage; rolling blackout -> (2) No desire to improve productivity, inefficient of work -> (3) Impossibility of increasing of electric rates -> (4) Impossibility of implementation of diesel power generation -> Return to (1)

In this Buyenzi district, various shops such as car parts shop, repair shops and secondhand shop for electric appliances such as televisions and refrigerators, and there are full of vigor. Moreover, there are various shops such as copy service shop, software sales mediation shop, moneychanger, beauty parlor and general shop also in street lined with office buildings in the central part of city. However, it is often dim in their shops because of the rolling blackout.

[Development of waterworks] The source of domestic water comes from Lake Tanganyika in Bujumbura city, so it is necessary to pump up water from the lake to the hill. The stable supply of the electric power necessary for the pumping up water is the important matter that precedes the preparation of water service in the Bujumbura city that faces the population growth including the return of the refugees. The electric power is also indispensable for the water service preparation in the new residential quarter district shown in Photo 5.1. Especially, the pumping up is indispensable for Gasukebuye district as it is located at the higher level than other areas, even if it is expanded from the existing water supply district. According to Table 5.3 and Figure 5.1, the number of water service users in Bujumbura city increases at the annual rate of about five percent in the recent years, and the stable supply of the electric power to meet the water service development are indispensable in the future. The services for both the power supply and the water supply in the urban area are executed by REGIDESO under the control of Ministry Energy and Mining in Burundi.

[Promotion of tourism] The promotion of the tourism shall be expected by finding of tourist attraction to make use of Lake Tanganyika that faces Bujumbura city and belongs to be the Great lake region forming the African large rift valley belt as well as developing the sightseeing facilities such as hotels. As for the sightseeing attraction, cruising of Lake Tanganyika that is famous in worldwide as a part of the African large rift valley, marine sports, and the ecotourism etc. are considered. However, due to the power shortage in Bujumbura city, a private power generation facilities such as small diesels generators are indispensable in the hotels now. In addition, the tourism also contributes very much to not only the way of the foreign currency acquisition but also the job creation such as the employment in the hotels and the restaurants, etc.

5-6

Table 5.3 Number of water service users in Bujumbura

Figure 5.1 Number of water service users in Bujumbura

[Promotion of industry- Cannery] People in Tanzania cans the fish caught in Lake Tanganyika, and export them. So there is a possibility of similar industry at Tanganyika lakefront in Burundi, while it is necessary to supply enough electricity. It should be noted that the canned food technology will contribute to Self-sufficient in food production by stabilizing the food stockpile and the food supply to inland.

[Promotion of mining] Mineral mining, though small in scale, has been practiced in Burundi since 1930s when it was under Belgian rule. After its independence, explorations have been conducted to identify mineral reserves under the support of the UN, Belgium, France, Austria and China but it has not led to ensuring the

5-7 GDP growth yet. The main minerals2 with confirmed reserves are nickel, vanadium3 and gold. The factors that have impeded foreign investments are destructions on mining equipments, the reduced number of mineral producers and insufficient intermediate technical staff, all attributable to the civil war, its handicapped transportation means due to enclavement of the country, and in particular, the lack of sufficient electric power. Boasting of its nickel and vanadium reserves, one of world largest, Burundi may have the mining industry, in the future, as one of the country’s trunk industries and a powerful means to earn foreign currencies.

[Promotion in rural area] According to the interview in the unelectrified rural village at the site survey to the Hydroelectric Power Development candidate site, the energy source for the daily life such as cooking is firewood that is gathered twice a week. There is no regular income for the villager, and cash earnings of about BFu50,000 (= about USD50) per year by surplus crops such as corn, bean, sweet potatoes, cotton and banana is spent for the stationeries for the children. The increase of the villagers’ income and the improvement of children’s scholastic attainments can be expected by the availability of electric light in the nighttime to release the manpower (especially for women and children) from collecting firewood by electrifying such unelectrified village in the future, though the objective area to be electrified examined in this study is Bujumbura city.

2 : Mineral reserves: Nickel ore 180 million tons in Rutana and Musongati provinces (nickel content 1.62%), Vanadium ore 11.8 million tons in Gitega and Buhoro-Mukanda provinces, Gold ore 738 million tons in Muyinga and Butihinda provinces (gold content 2.2 g/ton), Source PRSP. 3 : It is used as an additive of various metals. Because vanadium steel that adds the vanadium to iron increases strength and the thermal resistance, etc. with toughness kept, it is used for various usages; from structural construction materials of the skyscraper to steel materials of tools for machines such as spanners and wrenches. Moreover, the vanadium gallium alloy is used in the superconducting magnet and the vanadium titanium alloy is used for materials such as jet engines and nuclear reactors.

5-8 5.3 Japanese Experience

As for the postwar reconstruction or the regional promotion, the following approach has been made in Japan. And it is suggested that those could be references for the postwar reconstruction and the regional promotion in Burundi as well.

[Assistance to postwar reconstruction] Japan has positively done the postwar reconstruction assistance of each country up to now. In 1998, Japan financed Bosnia-Herzegovina for the urgent electric power rehabilitation project4 to recover the operation capacity of a thermal power station that decreased to tenth part of what was before civil war and the mining ability of the vicinity collieries that decreased to sixth of what was before civil war. In 2005, Japan financed Sri Lanka for “Vauniya-Kilinochchi Transmission Line Project5” previously by other sectors for restoration of the electric power facility destroyed by the civil war that has been continued for about 20 years and the Northerner's living standard improvement; "Dividend of peace" to the disaster victim. Japan is assisting “Large-scale power plant construction in Samarwa” by the emergency grant aid6, “Maintenance support of power plant” by emergency grant aid for the human security and “Capacity building of electric utility system and design/plan of distribution line network” by Jordanian electric power public corporation (Technological training program done in the third countries around Iraq) etc. as the Iraq construction aid in the power sector currently.

[Regional promotions to make use of the regional characteristics] The following approaches to make use of the regional characteristics effectively are reported for the regional promotion in Japan. Each approach has been making use of the feature in the region regardless of being advantageous feature or not.

Table 5.4 Japanese experiences for the regional promotion by the best use of regional environment Case Outline

Yasuzuka-cho, Niigata Prefecture In this approach, “Snow” was considered as the advantageous resources in ~Use of snow and rural experience~ stead of the ringleader of depopulation. They succeed in the whole year tourism which used to concentrate in the winter season, by introducing the attractiveness of the country experience.

4 : 4.11 billion Japanese yen as amount of limit 5 : 1 billion 278 million Japanese yen as amount of limit 6 : 12.7 billion Japanese yen in total

5-9 Kami-cho, Miyagi Prefecture “Cultural festival of food (called “Museum of food”, now)” to exhibit the ~Museum of food~ homemade food brought from each home in the town and send the abundant gastronomic culture in the region, was held, and there was a big sensation outside the region.

Himi City, Toyama Prefecture Cause of exchange population by activity of “Protection activity of ~Himi country fishing village space dragonfly and firefly”, “Rectification of scenery having small pond”, museum plan~ “Preservation and handing down of local performing art etc.” and “Rice terrace ownership business”.

Kaseda City, Kagoshima Prefecture Town planning with bicycle, using flat geographical features to the ~Town planning using bicycle~ maximum and enumerating health care and conservation of the environment etc. as the theme. Execution of event using bicycle and construction of bicycle facility such as cycling terminal etc.

Oasa-cho, Hiroshima Prefecture Approach that aims at recycling society using rape blossoms grown in ~Recycling society using rape-seed resting rice field, such as rapeseed oil manufacturing and sales, using oil~ rapeseed oil by cooking at home and school, refinement of biodiesel fuel (BDF) by collected used cooking oil and using biodiesel fuel as the fuel of farming machine and community bus.

Numata-cho, Hokkaido Thinking the snow as resource or energy in the region, the low temperature ~Town planning living together storage facilities for rice are constructed, and the storing rice that maintains with snow~ the quality named “Rice in the snow” is sold. The production, processing and storing of agricultural products is promoted using the heat energy of the snow.

Seto-cho, Ehime Prefecture Approach to wind power generation project using peculiar strong wind in ~Wind farm~ Seto Town. After the operation start, the number of tourist increases, the windmills are located as the symbol of the town, and the development of the tourist route is aimed at with peripheral tourist attractions.

Kunigami-son, Okinawa Prefecture Approach to ecotourism to achieve continued use of abundant natural ~Promotion of ecotourism~ environment, that has a lot of valuable flora and fauna such as natural monument "Rallus okinawae" and "Sapheopipo noguchii" Resource survey, making the tour program, and interpreter's (natural expositor) training etc. are executed mainly through the workshops by private agent, commerce and industry association, administration and researcher etc.

Source: White paper in 2003 issued by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport

5-10 [Commodity innovation from village products] The speciality of which people who live in the region can voluntarily boast is discovered, and it makes the attractive commodities that not only for the local people but also foreigners want to buy. This is the activity for the local revitalization that Mr. Morihiko HIRAMATSU who was the governor of Oita Prefecture advocated in 1979. The activity attracted attention as an attempt for the local populace to activate the region while making the best use of the trait in the region by own power, and has spread to other administrative divisions. Recently, Japan is supporting “Commodity innovation from village products” in the developing country, as a part of "Development initiative" that assists knowledge, technology, and fund, etc., so that the developing countries can obtain enough profits by free trade. In Malawi, the commodity innovation from village products is assumed to be a development policy of Malawi by the former President Bakili MULUZI who inspected Oita Prefecture in 2003, and the secretariat is set up in the Department of Agriculture, and then strategic planning was settled on. The processing and knowledge to apply the additional values as specialties to the existing products for self sufficiency are obtained by the Japan’s assistance, and the commodity more than 20 items such as manufactured palm oil and soap, cultivated mushroom, and finished goods of other farm products have been produced till now7.

5.4 Regional-Development by Stable and Enough Power Supply

For each of the regional development potentials discussed in Chapter 5.2, the stable and sufficient electric power supply is a prerequisite. Judging from the current conditions of Bujumbura city, it is assumed that the stable and sufficient power supply will directly lead to the regional development, i.e. raising the living standards of the people and activating small and medium-sized enterprise. In parallel with the capacity improvement for the stable and sufficient power supply, promoting additional measures should be most realistic for regional development, such as development of hotel facilities, administration-led personnel education, and active external appealing in a way to create employment opportunities from tourism. Figure 5-2 shows the increased number of tourists to visit the national parks in Rwanda, a Burundi’s neighbor having similar state of affairs. According to Figure 5-2, tourists in Rwanda rapidly increased after the end of the civil war reaching 16,088 in 2003. Though Burundi and Rwanda are neighbors who have experienced civil wars during the same time, Rwanda seems to be one step ahead in the post-war restoration. Rwanda’s data such as these should be a good reference for Burundi’s consideration on its tourism promotion.

7 : The source is the homepage of prime minister's official residence (http://www.kantei.go.jp/jp/kids/magazine/0608/6_0_index.html)

5-11 The “Commodity innovation from village products” campaign from Japan, for example, with a good use of experiences in Malawi and other countries, may provide a clue to making coffee, one of Burundi’s local products, a value-added specialty. The stable and sufficient power supply will enable the use of labor after dark and increase production through improved efficiency by mechanization. When the basic infrastructure will have been built or become certain to be built in the future to attract private and overseas investors, aquatic resources from locally characteristic Lake Tanganyika should be utilized for canning industry, and mineral products should be developed for the mining industry so that the broader and more effective regional development will becomes a real possibility. The stable and sufficient supply of electric power, being basic infrastructure and an essential factor for the development of Bujumbura, has a critical bearing not only on the promotion the living standards of the people but also on the promotion of private and overseas investments in the long term.

18,000 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Rwanda North Africa West Africa Central Africa Eas t Africa Europe North America Latin America Central America Western Asia Others Asian Countries Oceanea Non identify Soruce: RWANDA DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, Edition no 7/2004

Figure 5.2 Number of tourists visited national parks in Rwanda

5-12 Chapter 6 Hydropower Potential for Electrification of Bujumbura Area

According to the report of 1983 on the survey of the country-wide hydropower potential, the theoretical hydropower potential of Burundi is 1,400 MW. Of this capacity, the exploitable hydropower potential is estimated to be 300 MW spread over 41 sites. Out of these 41 hydropower sites, 33 sites are located on the tributaries that flow into Ruzizi River and Lake Tanganyika. In other word, the hydropower potential is evidently concentrated on those rivers located in the north and the south of the capital city of Bujumbura. Both the Kagunuzi River (The name changes to the Kitenge River as it goes upstream) and the Kabulantwa River, in particular, are suitable for the cascade development and assumed to be a very promising sites with their favored proximity to the existing power grid and the National Highway. For the purpose of the electrification of the general districts that include the capital city of Bujumbura, it is assumed to be very important to develop the hydropower potential which is indigenous, renewable and clean energy source available in the country. This chapter will address the already existing plans for reference and will attempt to prepare a scenario of electrification of the Bujumbura area and study a hydropower site which should be incorporated in such electrification scenario.

6.1 Hydropower Potential in Burundi

6.1.1 Meteorology and Hydrology

Burundi is located at the west edge of East Africa, where over much of the area often presents certain features of the rainfall problems. Two main wind systems affecting the climates of East Africa are the northeast and southeast trade winds. The place where the air masses from north and south meet (or converge) is called the Inter Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). In this area the overhead sun causes intense ground and air heating. The rising of warmed air creates turbulence and convectional storms, hence the thunderstorm zone. For April and October the ITCZ moves upwards in the west part of Africa and is almost on the equator in East Africa, i.e., Lake Victoria as shown in Figure 6.1. In this period, south-western wind from Atlantic Ocean and south-eastern wind from Indian Ocean dominate in East Africa. In July further northward ITCZ results in weak south-western wind from Atlantic Ocean and average strength of south-eastern wind from Indian Ocean in East Africa. For December and January the ITCZ moves southwards and almost on the equator in the West Africa and on the south of equator in East Africa. Again major south-western wind from Atlantic Ocean and average south-eastern wind from Indian Ocean prevail in the area in this period. The key to the north or south movement of the storm zone is the position of the overhead sun.

6-1

Figure 6.1 Wind system in Africa

("Lands & Peoples of East Africa", Gladys Hickman, LONGMAN, 1999)

Burundi

Figure 6.2 Annual Rainfall Figure 6.3 Rainfall Unreliability Distribution in East Africa in East Africa ("Lands & Peoples of East Africa", Gladys Hickman, LONGMAN, 1999)

6-2 Accordingly, the annual rainfall in East Africa distributes as shown in Figure 6.2. And the rainfall unreliability in East Africa is shown in Figure 6.3.

Along with the movement of ITCZ, there are several rainfall patterns in East Africa. Those can be grouped into two major types. The first is the equatorial type with rain throughout the year but two peaks when the fall is heavier than usual. The second, or Tanzania type, is further away from the equator and has one main wet season and one dry. The Tanzania type has one rainy season (from December to March) with higher temperatures, and a long dry season (May to October) with lower temperatures. Rainfall pattern in Burundi falls in the Tanzania type as shown in Figure 6.4. The data of rainfall is tabulated in Table 6.1.

Table 6.1 Rainfall Data at Bujumbara Bujumbura in Burundi (1992-1998)

1982 (mm) 180 Month 1983 Year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Total 160 1984 1982102471028300 01512035261 1985 140 1983 1 0 42 78 9 0 0 4 34 24 31 38 261 1986 120 1987 1984 106 1 6 0 N.A. 0 0 0 2 20 39 64 238 1988 100 1985 56 121 142 85 16 0 0 0 20 14 10 36 500 1989 1986 16 73 85 95 13 9 0 0 36 47 72 58 504 80 1990 1991 1987 30 144 88 62 42 0 1 0 59 22 68 21 537 60 Rainfall m (in m ) 1992 1988 151 22 2 84 6 0 0 16 28 49 102 122 582 40 1993 1989 118 97 150 149 165 12 0 13 18 34 28 153 937 1994 20 1990 61 137 75 39 60 0 0 0 26 63 37 46 544 1995 0 1996 1991 30 79 93 120 59 0 0 4 4 81 53 5 528 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1997 1992 23 65 27 38 28 8 0 0 1 5 7 18 220 1998 1993 0 0 32 56 11 0 0 0 1 8 51 33 192 Month Average 1994 93 39 83 54 37 0 1 10 7 56 153 146 679 1995 6 52 71 127 24 25 0 0 7 55 162 15 544 Figure 6.4 Annual Rainfall Variation at Bujumbura in Burundi 1996 78 95 128 23 4 18 0 4 15 2 2 17 386 1997 1 7 98 32 21 3 0 0 N.A. 71 15 N.A. 248 1998 18 9 91 27 0 0 N.A. N.A. N.A. 2 2 3 152 Average 47 55 74 69 31 6 0 3 18 33 49 51 436 (World Meteorological Data from 1982 to 1998, Japan Meteorological Agency)

6.1.2 Topography

Burundi locates in eastern Africa, surrounded by Tanzania at west, Rwanda at north, Democratic Republic of Congo at west and Tanzania at south as shown in Figure 6.5. East Africa is essentially a land of plateaus at many different levels. Burundi falls in West Rift Valley Highlands of a simple relief-landforms map of East Africa as shown in Figure 6.6. The history of the development of the plateaus goes back hundreds of millions of years. They are largely formed of very ancient rocks referred to as the Basement Complex, because of their location below all other rocks in East Africa. They have been greatly complicated by folding, faulting and pressure, which results in changes called metamorphism. The Basement rocks have been lifted up and worn down many times in a

6-3 succession of erosion cycles. The result in places has been to leave a series of steps, the steep edge of each step representing the point at which on period of erosion stopped. These levels often appear to be almost flat plains. These are common feature of the plateaus of East Africa. Burundi mainly occupies highland area reaching 2,500m, slightly declining eastward toward Lake Victoria and in the west, bordering the western Rift Valley. The oldest rocks of Africa, the Basement Complex, are exposed over vast areas of Plateau as shown in Figure 6.7. These are the ancient crystalline rocks that warp or bend, rather than fold, and fracture when the strain is too great. In Eastern Africa, the fracturing results from tension rather than compression. Burundi has the world’s richest known vanadium deposit, together with nickel. The two broad mineral rich zones run north-south in the center of the country.

Burundi

Figure 6.5 Topographic map around Burundi Figure 6.6 Relief and landforms of East Africa

("Lands & Peoples of East Africa", Gladys Hickman, LONGMAN, 1999)

The capital city of Bujumbura is situated at the bottom of the Rift Valley and the mountain ranges that stretch from south to north along the eastern flank of the city is a part of the Western Rift Valley. The western slopes of these 2,000 meter class mountain ridges rapidly drop toward the plains which spread linking Lake Kivu (1,462 m above sea level) and Lake Tanganyika (772 m) and, therefore, embrace many rivers that have steep inclines. Thanks to this natural blessing, each river offers short channeled hydraulic head potentials that enable economical hydropower development. But as the total catchment area is relatively small and so is the annual water discharge, large scale hydropower developments are difficult. Conversely, the eastern slopes of the mountain ranges, with gentle

6-4 inclination, comprise highlands. Therefore the rivers running on the eastern slopes have gentle inclines and much larger catchment area compared to the rivers on the western slopes. If there are falls and short channeled hydraulic heads can be made available there, as in the case of the Rusumo Falls hydropower site, it means excellent hydropower sources can be made exploitable. The rivers on the eastern slopes are the uppermost reaches where the Nile originates.

Figure 6.8 Topography of Burundi

Figure 6.7 Geology of East Africa ("Lands & Peoples of East Africa", Gladys Hickman, LONGMAN, 1999)

6.1.3 Previous Studies

Of the Appendix-4 which is a list of collected data and information, the following three reports are the existing publications related to the hydropower development plan. Data 7 Etude Du Development Des Ressources Hydro-Electriques Du Burundi, Volume 1, Aout 1983 (Study on Development of the Hydro-electric Resources in Burundi, Volume 1, Main Report, August 1983) Data 8 Etude Du PreFaisabilite Et De Faisabilite Des Amenagnments Hydroelectriques De

6-5 Kabu16, Kabu23, Masango Et Rushiha, Rapport Provisoire De PreFaisabilite, Volume 1 Rapport Principal, Septembre 1993 (Study of Pre-feasibility and Feasibility for Hydroelectric Power Potential Sites: Kabu 16, Kabu 23, Masango and Rushiha, Draft Report on Pre-feasibility, Volume 1 Main Report, September 1983) Data 17 Etude Du PreFaisabilite Et De Faisabilite Des Amenagnments Hydroelectriques De Kabu16, Kabu23, Masango Et Rushiha Revision Simplifiee Du Plan Directeur National D’Electrification, Juin 1995 (Study of Pre-feasibility and Feasibility for Hydroelectric Power Potential Sites: Kabu 16, Kabu 23, Masango and Rushiha, Simple Revision of the National Master Plan of Electrification, June 1995)

The Data 7 (hereafter called “MP1983 Report”) was prepared by LAHMEYER International, a German consultant, and the Data 8 (hereafter called “Pre-FS1993” Report) and the Data 17 (hereafter called Pre-FS1995 Report) were prepared by SOGREAH, a French consultant. The MP1983 Report is a report on the master plan (MP) of the hydropower potential covering the whole country of Burundi and Pre-FS1993 Report is a pre-feasibility report (Pre-FS) on the four hydropower planning sites along the two river systems selected from such master plan. The Pre-FS1995 Report is an updated version of the Pre-FS1993 Report conducted under the same contract and mainly provides the future power demand forecast and power source development plan based on such forecast.

The outline of each report is presented below.

(1) MP1983 Report Studies were conducted on the following three separate steps. 1st Step: The study on the theoretical hydropower potential covering the whole river systems in Burundi 2nd Step: The study on exploitable hydropower potential 3rd Step: The hydropower development plan based on the demand forecast

Based on the meteorological-hydrological data and the geographical data, studies on the hydropower potential were conducted on each of the 85 watersheds out of 27 river systems throughout the country, which were then grouped into six major river system zones and the study results were summarized. According to Table 6.2, the theoretical hydropower potential of Burundi is 1,371 MW. Of this capacity, the combined hydropower potential of the

6-6 tributaries that flow into the Ruzizi River and Lake Tanganyika is 883 MW representing over 60% of the total capacity. The Ruvubu River and the Kagera River systems cover a total catchment area of 13,328 km2, which is about one half of the country. Both of them are part of the Nile system and their hydropower potential is 383 MW representing 28% of the total.

Table 6.2 Theoretical Hydropower Potential in Burundi Estimated Average Hydropower Catchment area No. River System Dischrge Potential (km2) (m3/s) (MW) 1 Ruzizi 2,737 182.6 448.1

2 Lake Tanganika 3,797 63.4 434.7 Malagarazi 3,379 37.2 81.6 3 Lumpungu 1,234 17.0 19.3 Ruwiti 94 1.2 1.2 4 Mweruzi 362 3.6 2.9 Ruvubu-haute 4,165 43.2 107.1 5 Ruvubu-basse 6,555 92.0 196.5 Kanzigira-Kagera 1,219 44.4 6.8 6 Kanyaru-Kagera 1,839 39.3 72.9 Total 25,381 494.0 1,371.1

As the Second Step, the potential sites belonging to each river system were narrowed down to 94 sites as shown in Table 6.5. The criteria used for the selection were, topography, precipitation, catchment area, geology, social and environmental problems, conflict with irrigation facilities, river inclination and valley shape, accessibility, and distance to the existing power grid. Out of these, the sites which were either smaller than 500 kW in capacity, of duplicated location with existing power stations, or associated with relocation of local residents were eliminated. Then after further economic evaluation, the following results were obtained.

6-7 Table 6.3 Exploitable Hydropower Projects in Burundi Number Power & Energy Type of Power of Pinst Pfirm Etotal Generation Efirm (GWh/y) Project (MW) (MW) (GWh/y)

Run-off-river 14 34.4 34.4 301.4 301.4

Daily Regulation 10 49.6 45.2 374.3 214.0

Pondage Regulation 17 210.4 184.9 963.2 618.5

Total 41 294.4 264.5 1,638.9 1,1133.9

Pinst : Installed Capacity, Pfirm : Firm Capacity, Etotal: Annual Energy, Efirm: Firm Energy

According to the above table, the exploitable hydropower sites were identified as 41 and their hydropower potential as 294 MW. The 33 sites out of the 41 sites are located on the tributaries that flow into the Ruzizi River and Lake Tanganyika.

As the third step, the following sites were designated, as hydropower candidate sources among the 41 hydropower sites on the basis of the 20 year demand forecast covering 1985 through 2005. The selected candidate sources represent not only the most favorable sites among the 41 sites but also those sites along the river systems that enable the cascade development. These river systems include the Kagunuzu River (The name changes to the Kitenege River as it goes upstream) to the north of Bujumbura, the Kabulantwa River, and though extensions of the power transmission lines are needed, the Sikuvyaye River, the Jiji River and the Ruzibazi River in the southern districts.

Table 6.4 Demand Forecast in MP 1983 Report Year 1985 1995 2005 Peak Demand (MW) 27.37 72.54 112.63 Demand Energy (GWh) 124.35 329.23 524.02 Load Factor 51.80 51.80 53.10

1990 Kite 011 (15.2 MW) 1993 Interconnection with north grid (5.4 MW) Jili 003 (7.5MW) 1995 Kagu 010 (10.2MW) 1997 Ruzb 014 (3.6 MW) 1998 Ruzb 007 (8.3 MW)

6-8 2000 Mule 034 (5.3 MW) 2003 Kabu 016 (14.3 MW)

The above candidate sites represent the generation cost range from 3.4 cent/kWh (Jiji003) to 8.1 cent/kWh (Kite001) shown in the Table 6.6, i.e. the economically favorable sites among the 41 hydropower sites. The discrepancies noted between some of the installed capacities of the above candidate sites and those in Table 6.6 are assumed to have resulted from considerations of optimum alternatives for the sake of the cascade development. The unit generation cost shown in Table 6.6 was calculated by the following formula.

Averaged annual generation cost (US cent/kWh) = Averaged annual cost/Annual production energy In this equation, Averaged annual cost = Project cost × Capital recovery rate + Annual operating, maintenance cost = Averaged annual capital recovery cost + annual operating, maintenance cost + Fuel cost Project cost: Investment cost required for development (construction) Annual operating/maintenance cost: Operating/maintenance cost + Fuel cost Operating/maintenance cost was assumed to be 2% of Investment cost, Fuel cost was assumed to be nil due to hydropower Capital recovery rate = i (1+i)n / {(1+i)n -1} = 0.101 i: Discount rate = 10%, n: Life span, 50 year span was adopted for hydropower

6-9 Table 6.5 Inventory of Hydropower Potential Sites Catchment Identified Sites Q Q95 QT Head P No. River Area Site Name km2 m3/s m 3/s m 3/s mMW 1 Lua LUA 035 478 8.50 3.91 5.87 215 10.1 2 Nyakagunda NYGU 022 57 1.02 0.47 1.02 245 2.0 3 Nyamagana NYMA 030 133 2.50 1.15 3.75 85 2.6 4 Nyamagana NYMA 021 163 3.00 1.38 3.75 50 1.5 5 Muhira MUHI 016 179 4.10 1.89 2.84 105 2.4 6 Kabulantwa KABU 023 363 9.65 4.44 9.65 120 9.3 7 Kabulantwa KABU 016 454 11.15 5.13 11.15 250 22.3 8 Kabulantwa KABU 009 478 11.45 5.27 11.15 21 1.9 9 Kitenge KITE 020 99 2.00 0.95 4.92 210 8.3 10 Kitenge KITE 011 173 3.47 1.60 5.21 325 13.5 11 Kagunuzi KAGU 010 382 6.50 3.00 9.75 168 13.1 12 Kagunuzi KAGU 006 417 6.82 3.14 9.15 80 6.2 13 Mpanda MPAN 049 27 0.69 0.32 1.04 960 8.0 14 Mpanda MPAN 042 87 1.87 0.86 1.85 90 1.3 15 Mpanda MPAN 038 189 3.70 4.12 50 1.6 16 Mpanda MPAN 032 210 4.01 1.84 2.76 70 1.5 17 Kayogoro KAGO 005 20 0.50 0.23 0.35 410 1.2 18 Nyakadahwe NYDA 005 57 1.05 0.48 1.58 248 3.1 19 Muzazi MUZA 028 31 0.76 0.35 0.35 310 1.3 20 Muzazi MUZA 020 170 2.35 150 2.8 21 Muhungozi MUHU 021 24 0.50 0.23 0.35 300 0.8 22 Muhungozi MUHU 013 56 1.06 0.49 0.74 230 1.4 23 Ndahangwa NDAH 013 91 1.55 0.71 1.07 290 2.5 24 Ndahangwa NDAH 011 95 1.60 0.74 2.40 120 2.3 25 Kanyosha/Kaniki KANY 016 27 0.51 0.23 0.77 350 2.2 26 Kanyosha/Kaniki KANY 010 46 0.82 0.38 1.00 410 3.3 27 Mugere MUGE 007 186 3.70 1.70 2.55 150 3.1 28 Karonge KARO 008 33 0.70 0.32 1.05 260 2.2 29 Nyamuhende/Kirasa NYHE 013 62 1.40 0.64 2.80 160 3.6 30 Nyamuhende/Kirasa NYHE 009 97 2.00 0.92 3.40 345 9.4 31 Nyamuhende/Kirasa NYHE 006 104 2.16 1.00 3.56 200 5.7 32 Nyamuhende/Kirasa NYHE 003 156 4.65 350 13.0 33 Ruzibazi RUZB 028 43 1.20 0.55 1.80 110 1.6 34 Ruzibazi RUZB 021 62 1.67 0.77 2.27 235 4.3 35 Ruzibazi RUZB 014 108 2.62 1.21 2.93 190 4.5 36 Ruzibazi RUZB 012 114 2.74 1.26 3.01 160 3.8 37 Ruzibazi RUZB 007 151 3.40 1.56 3.46 390 10.8 38 Mulembwe MULE 055 93 1.79 1.79 158 2.3 39 Mulembwe MULE 055 93 1.79 1.79 45 0.6 40 Mulembwe MULE 051 99 1.91 0.92 1.38 90 1.0 41 Mulembwe MULE 037 295 5.25 2.52 3.78 60 1.8 42 Mulembwe MULE 034 327 5.95 2.87 4.31 250 8.6 43 Jiji JIJI 003 261 5.19 2.28 3.43 400 11.0 44 Sikuvyaye SIKU 014 143+242 6.84 10.26 1,022 83.9 45 Sikuvyaye SIKU 011 169 2.85 1.25 1.88 260 3.9 46 Sikuyaye SIKU 008 179 2.97 1.31 1.96 235 2.0 47 Buzimba BUZI 021 51 0.96 0.44 0.67 300 1.6 48 Nyengwe NYEN 006 248 4.83 2.22 3.33 75 2.0 49 Nyengwe NYEN 010 206 3.80 1.75 2.62 80 1.7 50 Kikuka KIKU 002 60 1.20 0.53 0.80 610 3.9 51 Kikuka KIKU 002 60 1.20 0.53 0.80 210 1.3 52 Mushara MUSH 021 70 1.11 0.49 0.74 415 2.4 53 Rukoziri RUKO 011 424 3.50 3.50 20 0.6 54 Mutsindozi MUTS 032 275 3.38 5.07 30 1.2 55 Muyovozi MUYO 035 264 2.12 0.93 3.18 60 1.5 56 Muyovozi MUYO 033 269 2.16 0.95 3.20 70 1.8 57 Muyovozi MUYO 029 286 2.24 0.99 3.32 197 5.2 58 Muyovozi MUYO 025 457 3.42 1.50 4.07 43 1.4 59 Karera KARE 014 38 0.30 0.13 0.20 55 0.1 60 Affluent Musasa AFMU 010 20 0.15 0.07 0.11 70 0.1 61 Affluent Musasa AFMU 001 49 0.34 0.16 0.24 50 0.1 62 Nyamabuye NYBU 021 131 1.27 1.27 200 2.0 63 Sagahogwe SAGA 007 37 0.40 0.40 35 0.1 64 Ruvubu RUVU 0285 423 5.40 8.10 40 2.6 65 Ruvubu RUVU 0238 1,100 11.32 12.18 10 1.0 66 Ruvubu RUVU 0216 3,282 34.70 34.70 45 12.5 67 Ruvubu RUVU 0203 3,373 35.50 35.50 35 9.9 68 Ruvubu RUVU 0197 3,404 35.75 35.75 30 8.6 69 Ruvubu RUVU 000 10,720 92.00 46.23 184.00 55 81.0 70 Mubarazi MUBA 039 271 3.90 1.79 2.69 20 0.4 71 Mutshetshe MUTT 004 126 1.55 0.71 1.07 15 0.1 72 Ndurumu NDUR 016 640 6.25 6.25 20 1.0 73 Ndurumu NDUR 012 702 6.84 6.84 20 1.1 74 Ndurumu NDUR 009 721 7.00 7.00 20 1.1 75 Luvironza LUVI 081 346 4.05 4.05 20 0.6 76 Luvironza LUVI 076 458 5.38 5.38 20 0.9 77 Luvironza LUVI 059 729 8.05 8.05 20 1.3 78 Luvironza LUVI 047 1,535 17.42 17.42 20 2.7 79 Luvironza LUVI 039 1,576 17.40 17.40 20 2.8 80 Luvironza LUVI 012 1,923 20.50 20.50 12 2.0 81 Luvironza LUVI 010 2,015 21.28 21.28 12 2.0 82 Nyakijanda NYKI 032 203 2.49 1.15 1.73 200 2.8 83 Nyakijanda NYKI 002 948 8.54 3.93 8.54 25 1.7 84 Sanzu SANZ 042 52 0.48 0.22 0.33 150 0.4 85 Sanzu SANZ 009 312 2.78 2.78 20 0.4 86 Sanzu SANZ 007 324 2.86 2.86 25 0.6 87 Sanzu SANZ 000 925 8.43 8.43 25 1.7 88 Kayongozi KAYO 028 517 6.00 2.76 4.14 75 2.5 89 Kayongozi KAYO 027 519 6.05 2.78 4.17 75 2.5 90 Kayongozi KAYO 002 303 1.50 2.25 30 0.5 91 Kayongozi KAYO 002 822 7.46 7.46 30 1.8 92 Nyakisumo NYAS 016 86 0.48 0.22 0.33 35 0.1 93 Nyakisumo NYAS 005 194 1.01 0.46 0.69 30 0.2 94 Lusumanie LUSU 006 37 0.17 0.08 0.12 35 - 477.4 MW

6-10 Table 6.6 List of Exploitable Hydropower Potential Sites 1) 1) Project Generation Pinst. Pgar. Etotale Eprim. No. Project Nom $/kWgar. Cost Cost (MW) (MW) GWh/an GWh/an Million cent/kWh 1. Run-Off-River Type Development Projects 8 KABU 009 0.90 0.900 7.500 7.500 7,435 6.7 10.8 23 NDAH 013 1.30 1.300 11.100 11.100 5,799 7.5 8.2 30 NYHE 009 2.00 2.000 17.200 17.200 8,055 16.1 11.3 31 NYHE 006 1.20 1.200 10.800 10.800 6,234 7.5 8.4 37 RUZB 007 4.70 4.700 41.400 41.400 3,801 17.9 5.2 41 MULE 037 1.90 1.900 16.600 16.600 8,028 15.3 11.1 42 MULE 034 5.30 5.300 46.300 46.300 3,544 18.8 4.9 43 JIJI 003 7.50 7.500 65.800 65.800 2,430 18.2 3.4 45 SIKU 011 2.40 2.400 20.600 20.600 5,934 14.2 8.4 46 SIKU 008 2.50 2.500 21.900 21.900 2,539 6.3 3.5 47 BUZI 021 1.10 1.100 9.900 9.900 6,355 7.0 8.5 49 NYEN 010 1.00 1.000 9.000 9.000 9,748 9.7 13.1 48 NYEN 006 1.30 1.300 11.500 11.500 8,002 10.4 10.9 80 LUVI 012 1.30 1.300 11.800 11.800 6,202 8.1 8.3 2. Daily Regulating Pondage Type Development Projects 1 LUA 035 10.80 10.800 85.130 47.380 3,745 40.4 5.7 5 MUHI 016 3.00 2.500 23.860 13.280 6,796 20.4 10.3 32 NYEH 003 4.80 4.620 37.390 21.210 9,327 44.8 14.5 35 RUZB 014 3.60 3.580 26.910 15.690 4,571 16.5 7.4 36 RUZB 012 3.20 3.150 23.770 13.810 4,935 15.8 8.0 51 KIKU 002 3.00 2.940 22.590 13.120 3,911 11.7 6.3 52 MUSH 021 3.30 3.270 24.700 14.360 7,309 24.1 11.8 66 RUVU 216 6.20 4.680 44.810 25.860 4,632 28.7 7.8 68 RUVU 197 8.40 6.470 60.740 35.040 9,915 83.3 16.6 82 NYKI 032 3.30 3.200 24.430 14.220 5,629 18.6 9.2 3. Seasonal Regulating Reservoir Type Development Projects 3 NYMA 030 4.00 3.500 14.050 11.900 7,110 28.4 24.5 6 KABU 023 21.50 16.820 83.560 61.610 4,136 88.9 12.9 7 KABU 016 36.10 31.340 178.790 111.700 3,455 124.7 8.4 9 KITE 020 9.30 9.280 29.540 27.100 3,112 28.9 11.9 10 KITE 011 15.30 15.240 66.570 46.440 2,906 44.5 8.1 11 KAGU 010 10.70 10.200 52.700 29.770 3,316 35.5 8.1 12 KAGU 006 6.70 6.660 37.720 21.410 3,115 20.9 6.7 13 MPAN 049 14.60 13.850 46.650 40.880 3,186 46.5 12.1 18 NYDA 005 5.80 5.360 18.420 16.310 6,343 36.8 24.2 25 KANY 016 3.60 3.370 12.560 10.120 5,693 20.5 19.7 29 NYHE 013 4.40 3.960 15.420 12.800 8,647 38.0 29.9 33 RUZB 028 2.40 2.140 9.150 6.910 8,978 21.5 28.5 34 RUZB 021 4.70 4.270 25.680 12.700 6,546 30.8 14.5 56 MUYO 033 6.20 5.180 18.170 17.310 8,706 54.0 35.9 57 MUYO 029 6.00 5.720 29.410 17.960 3,746 22.5 9.2 69 RUVU 000 59.10 48.020 247.900 173.550 6,225 367.9 18.0 Total 294.4 264.52 1,562.0 1,133.8 Note 1) These costs are calculated by NEWJEC based on the left side table.

6-11

Source : Study on Development of the Hydroelectric Resources in Burundi, August 1983

Figure 6.9 Location Map of Exploitable Hydropower Potential Sites

6-12 (2) Pre-FS1993 Report In this report, a review was carried out on the four hydropower sites that belong to the following two river systems using criteria of topography, geology, meteorology-hydrology, and environment. The data on the discharge were assumed from the precipitation data, as shown below, and used as basis for calculating the installed hydropower capacity.

Table 6.7 Estimated Monthly Discharge of Kagunuzi and Kabulantwa Rivers Monthly Flows m3/s Power Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Jun. Jul. Aug. station Rwegura 1.11 1.33 1.57 1.52 1.49 1.56 1.60 2.44 2.33 1.29 0.99 0.92 Masango 1.34 1.60 1.90 1.83 1.79 1.88 1.93 2.94 2.80 1.55 1.1 1.10 Rushiha 2.58 3.10 3.67 3.54 3.46 3.64 3.74 5.68 5.42 3.00 2.30 2.13 Kabu 23 6.24 7.49 8.87 8.55 8.36 8.79 9.03 13.73 13.09 7.25 5.55 5.15 Kabu 16 7.74 9.29 10.99 10.60 10.37 10.90 11.19 17.02 16.23 8.99 6.88 6.39

From an environmental standpoint, problems were not identified except sand sedimentations caused by soil erosion. The rivers have little signs of fish and are rarely utilized by the local residents. In addition, the four hydropower sites require no relocation of local residents.

The outlines of the four hydropower sites are described below. The two sites of Masango and Rushiha are located along the upstream of the Kagunuzi River, and the sites for Kabu 23 and Kabu 16 are planned along the Kabulantwa River.

Masango (a hydropower site located further upstream of Kite 020 referred to in MP1983 Report) - A hydropower plan to utilize the discharge water from the existing Rwegura Hydropower Station (18 MW) by directly channeling it into a connecting water conduit. The plan entails an additional intake of 300 L/s of water from a tributary of the Gitenge River. - Headrace tunnel with 2.6 m inside diameter and 3,800 m length - Steel penstock with 570 m length - Intake water level: 1,648 m, Tailrace water level: 1,442 m, Hydraulic head: 206 m, 2 Pelton turbines, Power discharge: 3.5 m3/s - Installed capacity: 5.8 MW, Annual production energy: 25.62 GWh - Construction cost: 217.359 million FF (equivalent to 38.4 million US$) - Unit construction cost: 37,476 FF/kW (equivalent to 6,621 US$/kW)

6-13 Rushiha (a dam site at 9 km point downstream of the Masango River) - Intake weir with 3 m height - Headrace tunnel with 2.6 m inside diameter and 3,600 m length - Steel penstock with 570 m length - Intake water level: 1,357 m, Tailrace water level: 1,084 m, Hydraulic head 273 m, 2 Francis turbines, Power discharge: 6 m3/s, Installed capacity: 13 MW, Firm capacity: 12.74 MW, Annual production energy: 67.80 GWh - Construction cost: 342.129 million FF (equivalent to 60.4 million US$) - Unit construction cost: 26,318 FF/kW (equivalent to 4,650 US$/kW)

Kabu 23 (a hydropower site located at 23 km upstream of the Kabulantwa River from the merging point of the Ruzizi River) - Seasonal regulating reservoir of 18.5 million m3 capacity with 55m high rock fill type dam - Headrace tunnel with 2.6 m inside diameter and 1,200 m length, Steel penstock with 210 m length - Intake water level: 1,330 m, Tailrace water level: 1,196 m, Hydraulic head: 134 m - 2 Francis turbines, Power discharge: 15 m3/s - Installed Capacity: 18.1MW - Firm capacity 15.75 MW - Annual production energy: 80.39GWh - Investment: 396.8 million FF. (equivalent to 70.1 million US$) - Unit construction cost 21,923 FF/kW (equivalent to 3,873 US$/kW) - Economic viability: B/C=1.68 and 0.62 FF/kWh (=11.0cent/kWh) under discount rate 10%

Kabu 16 (a hydropower site located at 16 km upstream of the Kabulantwa River from the merging point of the Ruzizi River) - Daily regulating pondage of 150,000m3 with 12 m high dam - Headrace tunnel with 2.6 m inside diameter and 3,050 m length, Steel penstock with 545 m length - Power discharge: 17m 3 /s - Intake water level 1,082m, Tailrace water level 890 m, Hydraulic head: 192m. - 2 Francis turbines, Installed capacity: 25.3 MW, Firm capacity: 23.83 MW (applicable after Kabu 23 completion) - Annual production energy: 130.92GWh

6-14 - Investment 375.3 million FF. (equivalent to 66.3 million US$) - Economic viability: B/C=2.84 and 0.36 FF/kWh (=6.3cent/kWh) under discount rate 10% The locations of the four hydropower sites are shown in the following river profiles.

1 16 1 22

1 39 1 30

1 30

Figure 6.10 Profile of Kagunuzi and Figure 6.11 Profile of Kaburantwa River Kitenge River

(3) Pre-FS1995 Report This report, being a sequel to the preceding Pre-FS1993, proposes a power source development plan on the basis of the demand forecast. The hydropower candidate sites shown in Table 6.8 are the projects recommended by the report for inclusion in the plan. The candidate hydropower sites were further reviewed after the Pre-FS of 1993, and therefore, specifics of each hydropower site are different from those that appear in the 1993 report. The hydropower sites that were newly adopted Figure 6.12 Power Development Plan in case of Medium Scenario

6-15 are Ruzizi II expansion, Ruzizi III (82 MW), and Rusumo Falls (60 MW). The data shown in Table 6.8 regarding these new sites represent Burundi’s quota.

The demand forecast was formulated by the summation of regional and sectorial demands for each scenario of high, medium and low growth case. The power source development plan formulated by this demand forecast is shown below. The plan below is based on the medium growth scenario.

6-16 Cost Generation (cents$/kW) 3,910 6.42 kW Cost per (US$/kW) Line (km/kV) Transmission 15 km15 kV 30 / 70 km/ 110 kV ) Total n Cost mil. US$ mil. ( Constructio IDC (mil. US$) (mil. T/L (mil. US$) Main Facilities (mil. US$) (mil. uota of Burundi. of uota q (GWh) Wet Year Wet ond to the Year p (GWh) Average Table 6.8 Features of Candidate Hydropower Projects Hydropower of Candidate Features 6.8 Table Annual Production Investment in 1995 level (GWh) Dry Year Dry (MW) Installed Capacity River Rusizi 13.3 0.0 0.0 8.7 6.0 NA 0.6 6.6 NA 451 Project Name JIJI 03 2 RUSIZI 3rd groupe Jiji 7.4 54.0 59.0 60.0 23.4 0.2 5.1 28.7 5 km / 30 kV 3,189 5.31 RUSIZI 3RUSUMO FALLS KageraNote : The values of Rusizi 2, 3 and Rusumo Falls corres Rusizi 20.0 27.3 113.0 139.0 134.0 152.0 155.0 165.0 61.1 74.1 19.8 5.3 22.3 21.8 103.2 165 km / 110 kV 101.2 108 km / 110 kV 3,045 2,908 8.37 7.24 KABU 16KABU 23KABU KaburantwaRUSHIHA KaburantwaMPANDA 20.0 104.0MULE 34 Gitenge 18.1 117.0 69.0 Mpanda 135.0 13.0 Mulembwe 91.0 60.6 44.1 10.4 113.0 7.8 33.0 67.8 0.7 64.6 57.0 42.0 75.0 63.0 9.7 0.5 50.0 55.0 65.0 14.1 18.7 54.5 1.4 km 6 / 110 kV 24.6 79.2 1.3 12.2 km 5 / 110 kV 2,240 5.9 4.3 68.6 3,597 17 km 6.6/ 110 kV 5.08 24.3 15 km/ 110 kV 9.49 4,338 37.1 1,923 11.04 6.31

6-17

Source : Study of Pre-feasibility and Feasibility for Hydroelectric Power Potential Sites: Kabu16, Kabu23, Masango and Rushiha, June 1995

Figure 6.13 Location Map of Candidate Hydropower Projects

6-18 6.2 Reconnaissance Study of Candidate Site on Kagunuzi River

The master plan of 1983 stated that there were four exploitable hydropower sites of 42 MW in total capacity on the Kagunuzi River. Furthermore, the Pre-FS of 1993 proposed the new sites of Masango (5.8 MW) and Rushiha (10.3 MW), both upstream of the Kagunuzi River where the Rwegura Hyropower Station (18 MW) commissioned in 1983 is situated. That means the Kagunuzi River enables the cascade development, is close to the capital city of Bujumbura, and yet is favorably located being close to the existing power grid and National Highway No. 5. Therefore, we discussed with REGIDESO, our counterpart, and selected, as our reconnaissance site, Kagu 006 which is located at downmost stream of this river and was quoted in MP1983 as a exploitable site. Further more, for the purpose of confirming the economic viability of this site, we made an approximate cost estimate, with which we conducted an economic evaluation, and confirmed the potentiality of development.

6.2.1 Site Reconnaissance

On August 26, 2006, the three members of the study team with a senior engineer from REGIDESO, conducted a site reconnaissance at Kagu 006 hydropower site which is planned downstream of the Kagunuzi River. The map on the right shows the reconnaissance route.

The site was quoted in the Master Plan of 1983 as one of the exploitable sites and the generation cost of 6.7 cent/kWh (see Table 6.6) indicated in the preliminary cost estimate belongs to the lower cost group among others.

The planned site is located six kilometers upstream from where the Kagunuzi River merges with the Ruzizi River, and is very close to the National Highway No. 5. In parallel with the National Highway No. 5, run the 70 kV and 110 kV power-transmission lines that originate from Ruzizi I and Ruzizi

II, respectively, and lead to Bujumbura (see photo 6).

Figure 6.14 Root Map of Site Reconnaissance on August 26, 2006

6-19 (1) Access After driving from the capital city of Bujumbura up north along the National Highway No. 5 for an hour (about 40 km), a car crosses a wooden bridge over the Kugunuzi River. The road is a excellent asphalt paved road with two lanes (see photos 5, 6), which is one of the trunk highways that connect Burundi with Democratic Republic of Congo and Rwanda. After crossing the wooden bridge, the road leads us to the entrance of the road to Ndava Village on the right after few minutes ride. This road to the village is an unpaved and very dusty dirt road. After passing a public market in the village, the four-wheel-drive car can reach a point on the right bank mountain side of the Kugunuzi River which is about 850 m above sea level. About one hour walking from this point took us to the Kagu 006 weir site.

(2) Topography and Geology 980

The mountain formations on ) 960 940 both sides of the Kagunuzi 920 900 River are large with gentle Elevation (m 880 860

slopes (see photo 09). However, 0 40 80 -80 -40 120 -280 -240 -200 -160 -120

the right bank of the river forms Left Bank Distance from River Center (m) Right Bank a steep riverside having 5 to 6 m Figure 6.15 Section at Weir Site of Kagu 006 high and direct access to the river is rather difficult except some limited portions. The river water is turbid and brown in color and river bottom can not be see. Rock outcrops are observed on both river sides. On the middle portion of the right bank where the weir is to be located for the run-off-river-scheme, boulder stones as well as outcropped rocks are observed. As far as visible, there are no trees on the mountains and only bushes, weeds or cassava fields spread all over. Any large-scale land collapses are not observed but bare lands are noticeable probably due to the slash 1100 u 11 u 11

and burn farming. g Ka 1000 (3) Flow conditions

The width of the water surface of the 900 Kagu 006 1 Elevation (m) Elevation river is more or less 10 m, and the 30

river-bed inclination is steep. Many 800 rapids are observed. There are some

cascades as shown in Photo 11. 700 0 5 10 15 20 25 According to the topography map of Distance from Rusizi River (km) 1/50,000, Kabu 006 is located in the Figure 6.16 Profile of Kagunuzi River

6-20 lower half of the section where the river has 1/30 river-bed inclination. The water discharge of the river, just below the weir site, is estimated by visual observation of the flow to be 1 to 2 m3/s. A local resident reported that the water level is the lowest at this time of August, but the river never dries up. They also responded to our question on the water level in the flood season saying that it rises another 5 m or so at around the weir site.

6.2.2 Reconnaissance Study on Kagu 006 Hydropower Project

On the basis of the site reconnaissance findings and the 1/50,000 topographic map, we conducted a desk study. The lowest hydropower site under the cascade development may generally require a plan that is consistent with other hydropower projects located on the upstream reach. For the purpose of evaluating the viability of Kagu 006, however, we considered two preliminary and independent development plans that adopt a run-off-river scheme and a regulating pondage scheme.

(1) Hydropower development plan Kagu 006 is going to be located downmost stream of the Kagunuzi River for the purpose of its cascade development. Kagu 011 is planned immediately upstream of this site, and the Rushiha and Masango sites are also planned in sequence from Kagu 011 as upstream plans of the cascade development. The MP1983 Report plans to develop Kagu 006 and Kagu 011 as the reservoir scheme. For this study, we consider plans of a run-off-river scheme and a regulation reservoir scheme. There are two reasons for this consideration.

i) Emphasis on early commissioning In order to cope with the critical shortage of the electric power supply to the city of Bujumbura, it is necessary to implement, as early as possible, a new power source that provides a sustainable operation and inexpensive electricity. For this purpose, a small-scale hydropower is recommendable which is environmentally friendly, relatively short in its lead time to completion, free of fuel cost after commissioning, and easier to be enrolled in the ODA financial assistance programs.

ii) Emphasis on power supply for base load demand Implementing an inexpensive base load power source project should permit the water reserves of the existing reservoir and regulation reservoir hydropower facilities to be effectively utilized for the peak hours.

6-21 Figure 6.19 is a plan showing the waterway route of the run-off-river scheme development. The river water is led by constructing a weir about 5 m in height. An open channel with 1.3 m depth, 2 m width and 1,500 m length should be laid on the moderate hillside. A steel penstock that channels the water from the head tank to the power house is 250 m long with 1.6 m inside diameter in average. Figure 6.20 is a plan showing the waterway route of the regulation-pondage scheme development of Kagu 006. In this case, a headrace tunnel with 2 m inside diameter should be installed.

(2) Discharge data The monthly discharge at Kagu 006 site (417 km2 catchment area) was estimated, by catchment area conversion, from the monthly discharge at Rushiha site (177 km2) which is presented in the

Pre-FS1993 Report as a plan for the 16 same Kagunuzi River. Figure 6.17 shows 14 12

the estimated monthly discharge at Kagu 10 006 site. The figure shows April and 8 6

May are the flood season and August, (m3/s) Discharge 4 the month of our site reconnaissance, is 2 0 the driest season. Jul Apr Oct Jan Jun Mar Feb Nov Sep Dec Aug May Figure 6.17 Estimated Monthly Discharge at (3) Run-off-river scheme plan Kagu 006 Site To make the most of the intrinsic function of the run-off-river scheme as a base load power source, it is needed to match the maximum power discharge with the most likely discharge level that is available throughout the year. The level is generally defined as the intake water volume made available from the river throughout 90% or 95% period of the year. However, due to the absence of the daily discharge data (averaged daily discharge data over 10 to 20 year period) which is required for the power discharge determination, our study on formulating the plan had to depend on the monthly discharge data. For this reason, the maximum power discharge was set at 5 m3/s using the minimum monthly discharge of 5.02 m3/s available in August. The installed capacity and the Annual energy, for the sake of this study, are calculated by the following formula.

Installed Capacity

Installed Capacity Pmax = 9.8 x K x Q x H/1,000 = 9.8 x 0.81 x 5 x 65/1,000 = 2.58 MW

6-22 Where, K: Composite efficiency of turbine and generator (assumed to be 0.81) Q: Power discharge (m3/s) H: Effective hydraulic head (calculated from 1/50,000 map)

Annual energy = Pmax × (annual hours) = 2,580 x 24 x 365/1,000,000 = 22.6 GWh

The construction cost was estimated based on "Guide Manual for Development Aid Programs and Studies of Hydro Electric Power Projects, New Energy Foundation, Tokyo, Japan 1996" (hereinafter called "NEF Manual") and the unit costs for the civil works and metal structures were estimated by considering actual cost data of some other projects. The election cost for the electrical-mechanical works and auxiliary equipments were prepared following "Guidebook for Hydro-valley Plan, March 2005, Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry". Table 6.9 shows the estimated construction cost.

Table 6.9 Construction Cost of Kagu 006 Run-Off-River Scheme

Item Cost (US$) Note

1. Preparation Work 419,896 (1) Access Road 300,000 3 km

(2) Camp & Facilities 119,896 (3 Civil Work) x 0.05

2. Environmental Mitigation Cost 23,979 (3 Civil Work) x 0.01

3. Civil Works 2,397,930 (1) Intake Weir 246,585 (2) Intake 138,541 (3) Settling Basin 166,830

(4) Headrace 468,703 (5) Head Tank 166,663

(6) Penstock and Spillway Channel 568,259

(7) Powerhouse 448,273

(8) Tailrace Channel 16,162

(9) Tailrace 63,728

(10) Miscellaneous 114,187 ((1) ~ (9)) x 0.05

4. Hydraulic Equipment 1,045,956 (1) Gate and Screen 131,110

(2) Penstock and Spillway conduit 740,520

(3) other 174,326 5. Electro-Mechanical Equipment 4,447,778 Turbine and Generator, Transformer, etc. Direct Cost 8,335,540 Total (1 to 6)

6. Administration and Engineering Service 1,250,331 Direct Cost x 0.15

7. Contingency 833,554 Direct Cost x 0.1

8. Interest during Construction 1,667,108 (1 to 7) x 0.4 x i x T Total Cost 12,086,532 Total (1 to 9)

6-23

The averaged annual generation cost introduced in 6.1.3.(1), i.e. the generation cost is estimated to be 6.5 cent/kWh as shown below. This cost is lower than the average electricity tariff of 8 cent/kWh.

Generation cost = (averaged annual cost)/(annual production energy) = (averaged annual capital recovery cost + annual operating/maintenance cost + fuel cost )/(annual production energy) = {12,086,582 x (0.101 + 0.02) + 0}/(22.6x106) = 0.065 US$/kWh

In addition, using the diesel generator as an alternative thermal power source, a cost-effectiveness (B/C) was evaluated comparing the benefit (B) with the cost (C). a. Benefit Assuming the unit construction cost of the diesel power plant at 1,000 US$/kW and the fuel cost at 25 cent/kWh, the annual benefit is calculated as follows. The coefficient of β and α are kW adjustment factor and annual cost factor respectively, and NEF Manual presents the following coefficients. Benefit = (Firm capacity of hydropower) × (Unit construction cost of the diesel power plant) x β x α + (Annual production energy of hydropower) × (Unit diesel fuel cost) = 2,580 x 1,000 x 1.1 x 0.15+ 22.6x106 x 0.25 = 0.43 + 5.65 = 6.08 million US$/year b. Cost The averaged annual cost covering the Kagu 006 construction cost was calculated using a 10% discounting rate and a 50 year life span. Cost = Averaged annual cost = {12.086 x (0.101 + 0.02) + 0} = 1.46 million US$/year

6-24 c. B-C and B/C From the above, the net benefit: B-C and the cost efficiency: B/C are calculated as B-C= 4.64 million US$/year and B/C = 4.2 respectively.

Despite the monthly discharge data being used for the preliminary cost estimate, it is fair to say that the Kagu 006 hydropower plan is a sound project from both financial and economic aspects.

In planning a run-off-river scheme hydropower project (as in the case of a regulation pondage scheme to be discussed later), the discharge volume during the low flow period is important, because the low flow level determines the maximum power discharge, with which the firm capacity is calculated, and finally the benefit is thereby determined. It is necessary, therefore, for us to obtain daily discharge data and study, more accurately, the optimum capacity level. In determining the optimum capacity, we need also to give considerations to the operational aspects of the regulation pondage scheme hydropower projects which might be developed upstream in the future.

(4) Regulation pondage scheme plan A study was conducted to evaluate the development of the Kagu 006 project on the regulation pondage scheme. As the basic process is similar to that of the run-off-river scheme, we conducted a study to define the maximum power discharge level. Further studies are necessary for the purpose of determining the optimum size of the regulation pondage and the water level (i.e. the height of the dam).

The optimum scale of the power plant was studied using the maximum power discharge as the parameter.

6-25 Annual Energy 14.00 3.50

65 12.00 3.00

60 10.00 2.50

55 8.00 2.00

50 B/C 6.00 1.50 B-C (M US$) 45 4.00 1.00 Annual Energy (GWh) Energy Annual 40 2.00 0.50

35 0.00 0.00 57911131517 30 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 Power Discharge (m3/s)

Max Power Discharge (m3/s) B-C B/C

(a) (b) Figure 6.18 Optimization of Kagu 006 Pondage Scheme

Figure 6.18(a) is a graph showing the variation in the annual production energy as the maximum power discharge changes. Figure 6.18(b) shows the benefit-to-cost relation that was prepared with the diesel power generator as an alternative power source and using previously mentioned formula. The energy calculation is based on the peak duration of 6 hours. Figure (a) shows the annual energy gradient changes at 8 m3/s of power discharge as the bordering point, and Figure (b) shows the B – C gradient similarly turns smaller at 8 m3/s of power discharge as the bordering point indicating the investment efficiency’s tendency to fall. The B/C graph demonstrates the maximum B/C = 3.1 at 9 m3/s power discharge. As this study used the monthly discharge data to represent the flow conditions of the river, it should be noted that the energy calculation includes a certain margin of error. Therefore, the optimum maximum power discharge was judged to be 8 m3/s.

Shown below is the production energy calculation table prepared on the basis of the maximum power discharge of 8 m3/s.

6-26 Qin q1 q2 P1 P2 E1 E2 Month (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (MW) (MW) (GWh) (GWh) Jan 8.15 8 8.00 6.75 6.75 1.26 3.77 Feb 8.58 8 8.00 6.75 6.75 1.13 3.40 Mar 8.81 8 8.00 6.75 6.75 1.26 3.77 Apr 13.38 8 8.00 6.75 6.75 1.22 3.65 May 12.77 8 8.00 6.75 6.75 1.26 3.77 Jun 7.07 8 6.76 6.75 5.70 1.22 3.08 Jul 5.42 8 4.56 6.75 3.85 1.26 2.15 Aug 5.02 8 4.02 6.75 3.40 1.26 1.89 Sep 6.08 8 5.44 6.75 4.59 1.22 2.48 Oct 7.30 8 7.07 6.75 5.97 1.26 3.33 Nov 8.65 8 8.00 6.75 6.75 1.22 3.65 Dec 8.34 8 8.00 6.75 6.75 1.26 3.77 Average 8.30 Max. 6.75 6.75 14.78 38.69 Min. 6.75 3.40 53.47 GWh Qin: inflow, q1 & q2: power discharge in peak time & off peak time, P1 & P2: Output in peak time & off peak time, E1 & E2: energy

From this table it is known that the supply of a maximum capacity of 6.75 MW is possible throughout the peak time of 6 hours and the supply of a minimum capacity of 3.40 MW is possible even during the off-peak time.

On the basis of the maximum power discharge of 8 m3/s, the total construction cost is estimated to be 39 million US$, the generation cost is 8.8 cent/kWh, B – C = 9.77 million US$/year, and B/C = 3.1. Accordingly, this project can be regarded to be financially and economically sound.

For future studies, it is necessary to employ the daily discharge data collected over a long period of time and define, more accurately, the firm peak capacity applicable during the peak time and the firm capacity applicable during the off-peak time.

(5) Conclusions and considerations

The preliminary studies conducted on independently developing Kagu 006 site under the run-off-river scheme and the regulation pondage scheme confirmed that both development plans offer a high viability from both financial and economic viewpoints. The regulation pondage scheme, with a large B–C value, offers a large investment effect. The run-off-river-scheme, with a large B/C, offers a good investment efficiency.

The cascade development of hydropower sources, applied to the same river system, enables the common use of access roads and transmission lines and enhances the investment efficiency by effectively utilizing the river water. Thanks to its proximity to the capital city of Bujumbura, the

6-27 Kagunuzu River, in addition, offers a good potential as one of the candidate power sources for the supply of electricity to the city. Kagu 006 is a hydropower site located in the lowest reach of the river for the cascade development, is very close to both the National Highway No. 5 and the existing transmission lines, and therefore should be considered as the first project under the cascade development plan. It is necessary, in future, to define Kagu 006 as an integral part of the cascade development plan, which should be formulated first so that the specific method of development and the optimum size of Kagu 006 are studied within the framework of such plan.

The lack of hydrological data may become a big constraint to the hydropower development of the Kagunuzi River. In planning a hydropower project using either run-off-river-scheme or regulation pondage scheme, in particular, the discharge volume during the low flow period has a great bearing on the success of the plan. For this reason, the collection of daily discharge data is indispensable. The suspended load measurement is also necessary because of the following reason.

The mountainous areas that comprise the Kagunuzi River basin are broadly developed and the river water shows, despite the dry season, dark brown color which is also due to certain geological factors (Pre-FS1995 Report). Soil erosion of upstream areas is assumed to be similar to or worse than that seen in South Eastern Asian countries. Therefore, the cascade development plan should enroll considerations of Sediment Control Management within the catchment area. At present, South Eastern Asian countries are facing sedimentation problems for their reservoirs caused by development activities within the catchment areas. To alleviate these problems, Japan is assisting these countries to manage their river basin maintenance plans, and to formulate and implement counter measures against sedimentation problems at their hydropower sites. Japan is no exception in experiencing sedimentation problems at our reservoirs. For the past decade, however, Japan has successfully established concept of the Sediment Control Management in the basins including sand management technology and sediment flushing technology. By applying such Sediment Control Management for the Kagunuzi River development, a sustainable utilization of the hydropower resources in Burundi would become possible.

The cascade development of the Kugunuzi River should permit the construction of an access road that connects the National Highway No. 5 and the catchment areas. The road to be necessary for the operation and maintenance of the power plants provides amenities to improve the social life of the local residents as well as access, to the market, of various agriculture and

6-28 forest products that should encourage the local economic activities. The increased production and commercialization of the agriculture and forest products is certainly one way of helping the local economy. The cascade development, on the other hand, takes a long time. During that time, construction works provide long lasting employment opportunities for the local people. The multiple hydropower plants are eventually operated along the same river system requiring maintenance personnel, in no small numbers, which also help maintain employment opportunities for local residents.

When maintenance activities such as erosion control, hillside works and afforestation are conducted within the river basin as part of the Sediment Control Management, long term labor becomes necessary to support those activities, increasing employment opportunities for the local residents. It is also expected that these maintenance activities should help agriculture management and forest management skills permeate the whole river basin. Further, an increased production of agriculture and forest products should follow contributing to the overall development of the area.

6-29 Figure 6.19 Kagu006 Run-off-River Scheme Run-off-River 6.19 Kagu006 Figure

6-30 Figure 6.20 Kagu006 Pondage Scheme Pondage 6.20 Kagu006 Figure

6-31 6.3 Conceptual Study on Electrification of Bujumbura Area

With the progress of the peace-keeping process, the social and economic restoration is well underway in Burundi with support extended from other countries. It is anticipated that a number of refugees coming back from outside the country, and in quest for employment opportunities, will concentrate to live in and around major cities making further urbanization of the capital city of Bujumbura, in particular, unavoidable. The power demand in Bujumbura, therefore, is expected to grow accordingly. On the other hand, the electric power source to support the national grid including Bujumbura has not been developed since the completion of Ruzizi II in 1989, except an emergency diesel power plant (5.5 MW) that was mobilized in 1996. After the civil war ended, restoration of transmission and distribution lines, rehabilitation of dilapidated power plants and substations, and extension of distribution lines have been pushed forward but the installed capacity of 50 MW has remained unchanged for the last 20 years or so. The excessive dependence on hydropower poses a power source structural problem limiting the power generation capability in the dry season below 50 % of the total installed capacity.

At present, Bujumbura city is suffering from a chronic power shortage, and exercising planned blackouts by stopping electricity supply according to a rolling schedule of designated time and district. Depending on the place in Bujumbura, the residents are compelled to have only one day a week to receive electricity for 24 consecutive hours. In this way, the power shortage is deteriorating citizens’ living standards including medical, educational and welfare conditions and posing impediments to the industrial development, as well. To alleviate this serious power shortage, new power supply sources are urgently needed. In this respect, it is recognized that the indigenous and abundant hydropower development is the fundamental solution to the present problems of the chronic power shortage and the low electrification level.

This chapter deals with the proposed electrification scenarios for the city of Bujumbura on both short and medium terms. The present electrification percentage of the city stands low in the 20s. However, in view of the capital city of Bujumbura and its contiguous areas having the largest power consumption in the national grid, the electrification plan of this area should certainly mean upgrading the national level of electrification.

i) Objective: Implementation of sustainable power generation for base load Principle: Development of run-off-river or regulation pondage type hydropower The two major existing hydropower stations, Rwegura (18 MW) and Mugere (8

6-32 MW), which are transmitting power to Bujumbura city, are the hydropower stations with reservoirs and, it is presumed therefore, they were originally intended for the purpose of serving peak load or middle load. Because the only existing diesel power plant is not operating due to the surging fuel cost, the two major hydropower plants are supplying power to meet the daytime demand as well. It is presumed, therefore, water levels at reservoirs tend to become low limiting their supply capacity at peak times. To fully utilize the functions of the reservoirs, it is necessary to implement new power sources that cover the daytime demand, namely base load, with inexpensive power supply. Measures: Development of Kagu 006 Hydropower Project Kagu 006 studied in this chapter, both on the run-off-river scheme (2.5 MW) and the regulation pondage scheme (6.7 MW), showed good economic viability and is able to supply inexpensive power to cover the base load. Moreover, the location of the project is favorable for early development and sustainable operation. The Kagunuzi River is expected to be developed by cascade, and when upstream power stations are developed, Kagu 006 power station will be able to generate more energy because of regulated flow by the upstream hydropower stations. Japanese Aid: Development by Japanese Grant Assistance The development of the small scale run-off-river scheme (2.5 MW) would likely be eligible for the grant base financial assistance: Grant Assistance to be given by the Japanese government. In the case of using the Grant Assistance, the Burundi government is expected to submit a request for assistance after completion of the feasibility study, the work from the basic design through commissioning should take two to three years, a comparatively short lead time to completion. ii) Objective: Early implementation of new power generation Principle: Prompt Installation of new power sources The power shortage in the capital city of Bujumbura is critical as the planned blackout is necessary. A new power generator is promptly installed not to interfere with restoration after the civil war ended. Measures: a. Installation of new diesel power b. Review of power tariff There would be two kinds of power generation such as photovoltaic power generation and diesel power generation to quickly alleviate the present critical power shortage. Out of two, the diesel power generation will be preferable

6-33 because of flexibility in power generation. Only diesel can supply power for peak load in the night and off-peak load in the daytime. Moreover, in future after present power shortage is resolved, the diesel can be used as a backup power for emergency uses and for complementary power supply in peak time in the dry season. However, the diesel needs high cost fuel. Therefore, efforts should be exerted to enlarge the power consumers by extension of the distribution lines in the city, and to review the electricity tariff schedule for normalization as well. Japanese Aid: Installation by Japanese Grant Assistance According to the Sector Policy of the MIN E&M submitted to the Government in May 2006, Burundi is planning to introduce new power sources of 10 MW. Therefore, the new diesel of some 5 MW will be required if the existing diesel power can be resumed by the following measures of item iii). Grant assistance for diesel power installation is desirable to urgently resolve the present critical power shortage and eliminate disturbance for further socioeconomic development in Burundi. iii) Objective: Utilization of existing power source Principle: Resumption of existing diesel power station Assistance in fuel supply by donor resumes operation of the existing diesel power station (5.5 MW) in Bujumbura city. Measures: a. Fuel supply b. Review of power tariff To cope with the imminent power crisis, measures should be taken to supply fuel to, and operate, the existing diesel power plant (5.5 MW) which is located in Bujumbura city and has been kept dormant due to fuel cost upsurge. The present power tariff schedule should be reviewed considering of increase of income from the new diesel power and hydropower stations to be put in service by the grant aid. Japanese Aid: Non-Project Grant Aid A gratuitous fuel supply, such as Japan’s Non-Project Grant Aid, would be applicable and considered. A Non-project Grant Aid was granted to Rwanda (Exchange of Notes in 2005) and possibility is high for the same being applied to Burundi.

6-34 iv) Objective: a. Sustainable power development b. Expansion of electrification Principle: Optimum Power Development Plan It is generally said that a hydropower development takes more than ten years from planning to its commissioning. In this regard, an effective and steady implementation of the development plan based on the optimum power development plan is essential with a long term view to alleviating the power crisis that is expected to become ever more serious.

Measures: Hydropower master plan and feasibility study for Bujumbura city and its vicinity To meet the power demand from Bujumbura city in the long term, it is necessary to develop the hydropower resources available in its vicinity. For this purpose, it is needed to establish a hydropower master plan on the rivers located to the south and north of the city and carry out feasibility studies, in parallel, on multiple sites or river systems having identified potentials in the master plan. The study may require one and a half to two years. It should be an optimum power source development plan that meets the demand forecast and includes an expansion program of the national grid for the power source development and consideration for power imports from adjacent countries as well. Expansion plan of distribution lines in Bujumbura city should also be planned for improvement of power supply condition in the city. Japanese Aid: Formulation by Development studies of JICA There must be many technical items in this kind of master plan, in which Japanese knowledge and experiences can be applied, such as cascade development of hydropower, sediment control management in the basin. Development studies of JICA would be applicable for this master plan and feasibility study. v) Objective: Sustainable power development Principle: Diversity of power energy Main power source in Burundi is hydropower, which shares more than 90% of the total installed capacity at present. There have been no thermal power plant constructed except diesel power because Burundi produces no fossil fuel. Therefore, there is a power source structural problem limiting the power

6-35 generation capability in the dry season below 50 % of the total installed capacity. Although hydropower development is important for country's sustainable development, as future objectives, multiple energy sources for thermal power should be adopted for attaining country’s energy security and the best energy mix of power generation. Measures: Feasibility study on natural energy power generation such as peat, biomass, solar and wind power It is necessary to conduct feasibility studies on alternative natural energy resources potentially usable for power generation because of no production of fossil fuel resources in Burundi. The potential use of peat, indigenous to Burundi, should be studied in a way causing minimal impact on the natural environment. Japanese Aid: Formulation by Development studies of JICA Japan has much knowledge and experience in this kind of study such as rural electrification by renewable energy. Development studies of JICA would be applicable for this study.

6-36 Chapter 7 Conclusion

The Republic of Burundi, since the end of the civil war in 1997, has endeavored to restore and rehabilitate its electric power facilities and expand its power distribution lines with support from other countries. But the two decades from 1989 without any investments in power developments have brought the country under a chronic shortage of power at the time the power demand has grown with the progress of the social and economic restoration. To cope with the situation, Burundi depends on import of power at present for over 40% of its power consumption, and is exercising, in the major power consuming city of Bujumbura, planned blackouts stopping power supply on a rolling schedule of designated time and district. The Burundi’s overall electrification rate is as low as 1.8%. The electrification percentage of the capital city of Burundi and it vicinity is assumed to be in the 20s. The power supply is the basic infrastructure for regional development, and here the capital city of a nation is not sufficed with the power supply.

7.1 Electrification Scenario for Bujumbura Area

In recognition of the indigenous hydropower development being the fundamental solution to the problems of the chronic power shortage and the low electrification level, this report proposes an electrification scenario of the Bujumbura area as short and medium-to-long term measures, as shown in Figure 7.1. The short term measure envisages approximately three years and proposes a run-off-river scheme hydropower development (2.5 MW) which can be realized within the timeframe, comprises a base load power source, and is environmentally acceptable. At the same time, the report supports the introduction of a new diesel power plant (about 5 MW) including the supply of fuel, for emergency and future peak load use, and specifically proposes the utilization of the diesel power plant (5.5 MW) which is kept dormant at present. Considering the long lead time of about ten years required for a hydropower development, this report proposes, as a medium to long term measure, to start formulating a master plan for hydropower development and a feasibility study on potential hydropower sites as soon as practicable. The national grid’s excessive dependence on hydropower poses a structural problem of the capacity drop in the dry season being unavoidable. To diversify the energy sources for power generation in the future, therefore, an early initiation of research for natural energy development potentials such as peat, biomass, solar etc. is recommended.

7-1 7.2 Regional Development Effects of Electrification

For each of the regional development potentials, the stable and sufficient power supply is a prerequisite. Judging from the current conditions of Bujumbura city, it is assumed that the stable and sufficient power supply will directly lead to the regional development, i.e. raising the living standards of the people and activating small and medium-sized enterprises. In parallel with the capacity improvement for the stable and sufficient power supply, promoting additional measures should be most realistic for regional development, such as development of hotel facilities and government-led personnel capacity building and active appealing toward overseas, in a way to create employment opportunities from tourism. Regarding tourism, neighboring Rwanda presents a good precedent. The “Commodity innovation from village products” campaign, for example, with a good use of experiences in Japan, Malawi and other countries, may provide a clue to making coffee, one of Burundi’s local products, a value-added specialty. The stable and sufficient power supply will enable the use of labor after dark and increase production through improved efficiency by mechanization. When the basic infrastructure will have been built or become certain to be built in the future to attract private and overseas investors, aquatic resources from locally characteristic Lake Tanganyika should be utilized for the canning industry, and mineral products should be developed for the mining industry so that the broader and more effective regional development will become a real possibility.

7.3 Other Effects of Electrification

As the electrification scenario shown in Figure 7.1 progresses, with the state of peace being established as indicated in the same figure, and the regional developments are executed as planned, then various effects that lead to the reduction of poverty are expected to become evident. In the case of hydropower development, small scale Kagu 006, for example, the access road construction will stimulate activate commodity movement in the neighborhood on top of contributing greatly to job creation for its own. As indicated in Chapter 6.2.2 (5), Japan is prepared to provide a technical transfer arrangement relating to forest maintenance that alleviates soil erosion in upstream areas and agriculture and forest management that will help improve productivity. Offering both of our technology and experiences for use in the integrated river basin management of Burundi should

7-2 contribute to creating indirect employment opportunities and income sources over the Kagunuzi River basin area, encouraging hopefully, similar and parallel development activities over other river basin areas as well.

7-3

Electrification Scenario for Bujumbura Area

Issues 1. Chronic power shortage

2. Low electrification ratio

Short-term Objectives： within 3 years

Urgent improvement of chronic power shortage

i) Development of Kagu 006 hydropower： Implementation of sustainable

power generation for base load

： ii) Installation of new diesel power Early implementation of new power generation iii) Fuel supply： Utilization of existing power source

Medium & Long-term Objectives： more than 3

Expansion of electrification area Sustainable power development

iv) Hydropower master plan and feasibility study v) Feasibility study on natural energy power generation

効Effects 果

Promotion of restoration of socio-economy Stabilization of peace Poverty Regional development Reduction Development of industries Increase of employment opportunity

Figure 7.1 Electrification Scenario for Bujumbura Area

7-4

Appendix 1 Schedule for Field Investigation

Appendix 1 [1/1] Schedule for Field Investigation

No. Date Schedule Stay

1 19-Aug-2006 Sat EK317 KIX(23:15) -> Fly Overnight

-> DXB(05:00) 2 20-Aug-2006 Sun Nairobi EK719 DXB(10:05) -> NBO(14:15) AM: Embassy of Burundi for application of VISA issuance 3 21-Aug-2006 Mon Nairobi 14:00: Embassy of Japan for meeting(Mr.Oishi, Ms.Otsuka) AM: Embassy of Burundi for the receipt of passport and VISA 4 22-Aug-2006 Tue Nairobi PM: Team meeting KQ474 NBO(11:15) -> BJM(11:55) 5 23-Aug-2006 Wed Bujumbura 16:00: Meeting with Mr. Barampanza (Director of Energy, DOE) and Mr. Ndayanbase (REGIDESO) to confirm schedule All day: Meeting with Mr. Ndayanbase (REGIDESO) to gather information and discuss 6 24-Aug-2006 Thu Bujumbura 10:00: Meeting with Mr. Ferdinand (DG, DGHER) etc. to gahter information AM: Meeting with Mr. Ndayanbase (REGIDESO) and courtesy call to Mr. Sunzu (Director of Electricity, REGIDESO) 7 25-Aug-2006 Fri Bujumbura PM: Survey at Bujumbura existing diesel power plant, Snel substation , RN1 substation and Ozone substation

8 26-Aug-2006 Sat Site survey of hydoro power potential site in Kagunugi river (Kagu006) Bujumbura

9 27-Aug-2006 Sun Survey at Mugere existing hydropower plant and Mutumba existing micro hydropower plant Bujumbura

9:00: Courtesy call to Mr. Sylvere (DG, Water and Energy), Mr. Tangishaka (DG, REGIDESO), Mr. Ferdinand (DG, DGHER) 10 28-Aug-2006 Mon AM: Meeting withMr. Barampanza (Director of Energy, DOE) and Mr. Ndayanbase (REGIDESO) to gather information and discuss Bujumbura 15:00: Visit of ONATOUR (Peat factory)

11 29-Aug-2006 Tue Electrification situation survey at Gasukebuye new town, Kamengeworkers' district, Carama new town, Buyenzi workers' district in Bujumbura city Bujumbura

12 30-Aug-2006 Wed Making of quick investigation report Bujumbura

AM: Reportiong to Mr. Barampanza (Director of Energy, DOE) 13 31-Aug-2006 Thu Nairobi KQ474 BJM(13:45) -> NBO(16:25)

14 1-Sep-2006 Fri EK 720 NBO(17:15) -> DXB(23:15) Fly Overnight

15 2-Sep-2006 Sat EK 316 DXB(02:50) -> KIX(17:20) -

Appendix 2 Interviewed Persons List

Appendix 2 [1/1] Intervewed Persons List

No. Name Belonging Interview date

1 Mr. OISHI Tomohiro Head of Economic Cooperation Section, First Secretary, Embassy of Japan in Kenya 21-Aug-2006 2 Ms. OTSUKA Yumi Head of Grate Lake Division, Embassy of Japan in Kenya 21-Aug-2006 3 Mr. Barampanze Pierre Director of Energy in the Ministry of Energy and Mining 23-Aug-2006 28-Aug-2006 29-Aug-2006

4 Mr. Ndayanbase Leonidas Power Utility Specialist, REGIDESO in the Ministry of Energy and Mining 23-Aug-2006 24-Aug-2006 25-Aug-2006 26-Aug-2006 27-Aug-2006 28-Aug-2006 29-Aug-2006

5 Mr. Ferdinand Niyitegeka Director General, DGHER in the Ministry of Energy and Mining 24-Aug-2006 28-Aug-2006

6 Mr. Sunzu Audoce Director of Electricity, REGIDESO in the Ministry Energy and Mining 25-Aug-2006 28-Aug-2006

7 Mr. Simbananiye Cyprier DGHER in the Ministry of Energy and Mining 24-Aug-2006 8 Mr. Sylvere Nzoyihera Director General, Water and Energy in the Ministry of Energy and Mining 28-Aug-2006 9 Mr. Tangishaka Wilson Director General, REGIDESO in the Ministry of Energy and Mining 28-Aug-2006

Appendix 3 Photos

Appendix 3 Photos [1/3]

Photo 01 Bujumbura Diesel Power Station Photo 02 SNEL Substation Photo 03 RN1 S/S & Load Dispatching Center (25- (25-Aug) (25-Aug) Aug)

Photo 04 OZONE Substation Photo 05 Main Road between Bujumbura and Cibitoke Photo 06 70 kV Transmission Line from Ruzizi I (25-Aug) (26-Aug) (DRC) to SNEL S/S (26-Aug)

Photo 07 Bridge across Kagunuzi River (26-Aug) Photo 08 Access Road to Mu Kayange Village near by Photo 09 Kagunuzi River KAGU 006 Site Kagunuzi River (26-Aug) (26-Aug) Appendix 3 Photos [2/3]

Photo 10 Kagunuzi River KAGU 006 Site Photo 11 Kagunuzi River KAGU 006 Site Photo 12 Mugere Hydro Power Station (26-Aug) (26-Aug) 27-Aug)

Photo 13 Mugere Hydro Power Station Photo 14 Mutunba Hydro Power Station Photo 15 Mutunba Hydro Power Station (27-Aug) (27-Aug) (27-Aug)

Photo 16 Mutunba Hydro Power Station Photo 17 ONATOUR Peat Warehouse Photo 18 Pieces of Peat (27-Aug) (28-Aug) 28-Aug) Appendix 3 Photos [3/3]

Photo 19 Kamenge Area of Bujumbura City Photo 20 Kamenge Area of Bujumbura City Photo 21 Carama Area of Bujumbura City (29-Aug) (29-Aug) (29-Aug)

Photo 22 Distant View of Bujumbura City Photo 23 Bus Terminal of Bujumbura City Photo 24 Air View of Mountainous Area (30-Aug) (30-Aug) (31-Aug)

Appendix 4 Collected Data List

Appendix 4 [1/2] Collected Data List Date of Date of Acquired No. Name of data Publisher Acquired from Note issue acquisition by

Ministere De La Planification Du 1 Annuaire Statistique Du Burundi 2003 Sep-2005 ISTEEBU 8/23/2006 Book General statistics of regional (1992-2003 or1990-1998) Developpement Et La Reconstruction

Ministere De La Planification Du Statistics to put aspect on improvement of living standard 2 Base De Donnees Pour Les Indicateurs Du DHD 2004 Dec-2005 ISTEEBU 8/23/2006 Book Developpement Et La Reconstruction (1990-2004)

Ministere De La Planification Du 3 Bulletin Mensuel Des Prix Avril 2006 May-2006 ISTEEBU 8/23/2006 Book Prices statistics in April, 2006 Developpement Et La Reconstruction

Ministere De La Planification Du 4 Note Trimesterielle 2004 Evolution annuelle Sep-2005 ISTEEBU 8/23/2006 Book Prices statistics transition in 2003-2004 Developpement Et La Reconstruction

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ブルンジ共和国ブジュンブラ市電化計画予備調査

和文要約

この事業は、競輪の補助金を受けて実施したものです。

1. 背景と目的

ブルンジ共和国（以下、ブルンジ）は、アフリカ中央部に位置する、国土面積 2.78 万 km2、人口 730 万人（2004 年）の内陸国である。また、年間降水量が約 1,500mm とアフリカにおいては比較的水資源の豊富な国であり、中でも首都のブジュンブラは、Tanganyika 湖に面し、多くの河川が流れるブルンジ内においても比較的水資源の豊富な地域である。しかしながら、1993 年に勃発した内戦の影響のため、1996 年の和平交渉再開合意、2003 年の国土の大部分における武装抗争停止以降も、インフラの状況は改善されていない。特に電力については、内戦による破壊および設備の老朽化によりブルンジ全体の電化率は 2％程度しかなく、戦後復興の遅れ、経済回復･発展に対する阻害要因となっている。

一方、2006 年 9 月に策定されたブルンジの貧困削減戦略文書（PRSP: Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper）では、生産活動を支援する設備不足を問題点として挙げ、貧困削減と国家発展のためには、水供給、交通、通信とともに電力の供給能力強化による生産の向上と多角化が必要とされている。また、日本は ODA による緊急人道支援や内戦後の国づくりを支援する方針であり、1999 年 9 月にはブルンジとの二国間経済協力の再開が決定され、2006 年度には道路および保健医療分野に関する無償資金協力が実施される予定である。

首都ブジュンブラでは、人口の増加、集中、産業の発展に電力供給能力が追いついておらず、慢性化している電力不足により、①戦後復興の遅れ、②医療機関への電力不足による国民の健康状態の悪化、③産業発展の阻害等が生じている。ブルンジの戦後復興・発展と平和の定着には、早急に首都ブジュンブラの電力状況を改善する必要がある。また、首都の振興は、地方部の発展、振興の基盤となると考える。

以上のような背景を踏まえて、本調査は、ブルンジの戦後復興、貧困削減、経済発展の足がかりとなる首都ブジュンブラの電化計画を策定することを目的とし、ブジュンブラの電化計画に関する予備的な調査を実施するものである。

なお、調査対象地域は、本調査の電化整備対象であるブルンジの首都ブジュンブラ市1、および水力電源サイトであるその周辺地域とした。

1 : ブジュンブラは、首都であるブジュンブラ市を示す場合とブジュンブラ市およびその周辺地域を含むブジュンブラ州を示す場合がある。

要約-1 2. ブルンジの社会経済状況

2.1 はじめに 1993 年に勃発した内戦の後、暫定的な政治の期間を経て、2005 年 8 月には、選挙により勝利し政党となった CNDD-FDD の指導者であるンクルンジザ氏が大統領に選出された。 2006 年 9 月 7 日には、反政府勢力である解放国民軍（FNL）が恒久的な停戦に合意し、隣国のルワンダに遅れを取っているものの、着実に和平プロセスを歩んでいる。

2.2 人口ブルンジ国内の人口は、いずれの地域においても年々増加しており、1999 年以降は内戦以前の率に戻りつつある。また、図 2.1 に示すアフリカ開発銀行（AfDB）発行の人口データによると、都市部の人口増加率はブルンジ全体の人口増加率よりも大きく、都市部への人口図 2.1 ブルンジおよびその都市域人口の変遷集中が進んでいることがわかる。

2.3 経済図 2.2 によると、近年の一人当たり GDP は 90 ドル前後で、内戦勃発前の半分以下となっているが、内戦勃発以降年々減少していた GDP は 2004 年には回復の兆しが見られる。また、図 2.3 に示すとおり、1993 年以降の第一次産業比率の増加と電気･水道等の公共サ図 2.2 GDP および一人当たり GDP ービスを含む第三次産業比率の増加は、都市部への人口集中とも関連していると考えられる。なお近年は、内戦以降の農産物生産高減少により、食糧援助に頼らざるを得なくなっている。

図 2.3 部門別 GDP 比率の変遷 2.4 貿易 2003 年のデータによると、輸出金額の 60％以上がコーヒーである。また、内戦以降、輸出金額が激減している品目がある一方で、砂糖、ビール等の輸出金額が近年増加している。なお、セメントなどの資本財、石油や工業製品、食糧等、多くの物を輸入に頼っている。

要約-2 2.5 海外支援ブルンジに対する 2003 年の ODA は 224,000,000 US$である。これは 2003 年におけるブルンジの GNI の約 39％を占めており、その割合は年々増加している。ブルンジへの二国間援助額としては、2002 年の実績額で、アメリカ、ベルギー、ノルウェー、オランダ、フランスの順に多い。

3. ブルンジの電力セクター

3.1 はじめにブルンジは、エネルギー源をバイオマス資源（木材、泥炭、石炭）に大きく依存しており、全体の 87%を占める。これに続くのが石油（11%）で、電気はいまだにエネルギー源の 2% を占めるに過ぎない（図 3.1 参照）。

3.2 組織および関連法令

ブルンジの電力セクターを所管する省庁は、エネルギー・鉱木材、泥炭、石炭業省（以下、）である。また、は、ブ石油 MIN E&M REGIDESO 電気ルンジの電力と水を供給する国営企業であり、都市部におけ図 3.1 ブルンジのエネルギーる電力施設の実質的な運営管理は REGIDESO が行っている。なお、MIN E&M の水・エネルギー部が REGIDESO を所管する。一方、地方部における水力開発（村落電化）は、MIN E&M の地方水力エネルギー部（以下、DGHER）が独自に行っている。DGHER の水力発電所は、送電系統から独立している（いずれも村落電化のための独立電源である）。MIN E&M が管轄するその他の国営企業としては、ブルンジ南部および北部にて採取される泥炭を扱う ONATOUR が挙げられる。

SINELAC は、大湖諸国経済共同体（以下、CEPGL）を構成する 3 ヵ国、ブルンジ、ルワンダ、コンゴ民主共和国（以下、DRC）による共同設立会社であり、1989 年に建設された Ruzizi II 水力発電所を運営している。一方、CEPGL 発足以前の 1958 年に建設された Ruzizi I 水力発電所の運営は、SNEL が行っている。また、ブルンジは世界最長の河川であるナイル川の最上流に位置しており、ナイル川流域各国によるナイル川流域イニシアティブ（NBI）にも参加している。

電力セクターの関係法令は現在カナダの支援の下で準備中である。その他の関連法令としては、土地収用法（1986 年）、森林法（1985 年）があり、これらは現在改訂中である。また、環境法（2000 年）には、環境影響評価（EIA）の手順について触れられている。

要約-3 3.3 政策およびプログラム 2006 年 9 月、世界銀行（WB）と国際通貨基金（IMF）により暫定版 PRSP（I-PRSP）が 2004 年 1 月に承認されて以降、約 2 年半の年月を経てブルンジの PRSP（F-PRSP）が策定された。 PRSP では、貧困削減に向けて以下に示す 4 つの戦略的な中心軸を掲げている。 (i) ガバナンスおよび治安の改善 (ii) 持続可能かつ公平な経済成長の促進 (iii) 人的資本の育成 (iv) HIV/AIDS との闘争また、PRSP では、インフラの深刻な不足が、農業活動、畜産業、漁業、中小工業/企業におけるダイナミズムの欠如をもたらしている主要な因子として挙げられている。このため、「(ii) 持続可能かつ公平な経済成長の促進」に向けて、運輸・エネルギーおよび電気通信に関するインフラのリハビリならびに近代化が主要な課題となっている。

一方、MIN E&M のセクターポリシーは、PRSP の最終化に向けて 2006 年 5 月に政府に提出され、同年 6 月に承認されている。このうち、エネルギーに関するポリシーは以下の通りである。

(1) 目標エネルギーセクターの到達すべき目標は以下に示す 2 つに区分される。 - トータル目標 - （各トータル目標に向けた）具体的な目標

トータル目標

(a) 国民の大部分に近代的なエネルギーへのアクセスを保障する (b) 質的および量的に充分なエネルギーを産業活動および職人に提供する (c) 環境保護に配慮しつつ国内需要に必要なエネルギーを満たす (d) コミュニティおよび家庭内利用のためのエネルギーとして、ローカル資源を合理的に活用する (e) 農業および園芸農業において、泥炭を含む肥料の利用を促進する

（各トータル目標に向けた）具体的な目標

(a) 国民の大部分に近代的なエネルギーへのアクセスを保障する - 送電網を延長し、国内の電化率を増加する

(b) 質的および量的に充分なエネルギーを産業活動および職人に提供する - 水力発電所を建設し、国内の電力生産を増加する - セクター内の制度的実効性および財務成績を改善する

要約-4 (c) 環境保護に配慮しつつ国内需要に必要なエネルギーを満たす - エネルギーの実効性を改善する - エネルギーの合理的な管理を促進する

(d) コミュニティおよび家庭内利用のためのエネルギーとして、ローカル資源を合理的に活用する - 森林伐採を抑制するために、共用サービスや家庭内レベルでのエネルギー需要に泥炭を活用する

(e) 農業および園芸農業において、泥炭を含む肥料の利用を促進する - 土壌の改良に向けた質的および量的に充分なローカルの肥料を作成する

(2) 戦略上記目標の達成に向けた戦略は以下の通りである。

(a) 送電網を延長し、国内の電化率を増加する - REGIDESO および DGHER のサービスに関する経営実効性を改善する - ネットワークおよび顧客の拡張を実施する

(b1) 国内の電力生産を増加する - 新規水力発電所を建設する - 増設可能な既設の水力発電所については、設備容量を倍加する - 10 MW の発電所を獲得する - 出力向上に向けて、既設インフラのリハビリを行う

(b2) セクター内の制度的実効性および財務成績を改善する - 収益性および実効性を高めるため、電力会社（REGIDESO）のリストラを行う - 直面する課題に効果的に対処するため、組織的および制度的能力を強化する

(d) 森林伐採を抑制するために、共用サービスや家庭内レベルでのエネルギー需要に泥炭を活用する - 国家の天然自然エネルギーである泥炭の活用 - 家庭やコミュニティでの利用に向けた、泥炭用暖炉（兼かまど）の普及促進 - 泥炭を利用する技術（特に建築材料（れんが）の生産）に必要な形成を保証する。

(e) 土壌の改良に向けた質的および量的に充分なローカルの肥料を作成する - パイロットサイトのリハビリを行う - 生産高を強化（増強）する

要約-5 3.4 発電設備電力輸入分を含めたブルンジの設備容量は 57.7 MW である（表 3.1 参照）。また、図 3.2 に示すように、国内の水力発電所の設備容量は 32.2 MW である。その 96.2%（31 MW）を REGIDESO が所有し、残る 1.2 MW のうち 0.5 MW 分のマイクロ水力を DGHER が、同 0.7 MW 分を民間企業が所有する。合計 27 水力発電所のうち、国内送電線網（National Grid）に接続された水力発電所は Rwegura（18 MW）、Mugere（8 MW）、Ruvyironza（1.3 MW）の 3 つに過ぎない。この合計である 27.3 MW と、Ruzizi I、Ruzizi II 両水力発電所からの電力輸入分（最大 20 MW）を併せた最大 47.3 MW が国内送電線網経由でブジュンブラに送られる2。また、図 3.3 はブルンジの電力生産高を示す。2004 年には輸入分を含めて 163 GWh が生産され、その 95.9%が国内送電線網経由でブジュンブラに送られたと考えられる。

表 3.1 ブルンジの発電設備構成 Installed Capacity Type of Power Plant Remarks (MW) Hydro Interconnected Rwegura 18 (Domestic) HEPPs Mugere 8 (REGIDESO) Ruvyironza 1.275 * Under Rehabilitation Sub Total 27.275 Isolated HEPPs REGIDESO 3.692 DGHER 0.503 Private 0.716 Sub Total 4.911 Total HEPPs 32.186 Hydro Ruzizi I HEPP (28.2MW) 8 8 MW for Burundi (Import) Ruzizi II HEPP (36MW) 12 12 MW for Burundi Total Import 20 Thermal Bujumbura Diesel Power Plant 5.5 * For Emergency Use Total Themal 5.5 Others Not Specified - Grand Total 57.686

なお、ブルンジでは水力発電が主力であり、火力発電は非常に少ない。太陽光や風力といったその他の発電設備はさらに稀である（パイロットが行われている程度）。 1996 年にブジュンブラに設置された 5.5 MW（1.5 MW×2, 1.25 MW×2）のディーゼル発電所が現行でブルンジ最大の火力発電所であるが、燃料である石油価格の高騰により稼働することが出来ず、緊急用電源の扱いとなっている。

2 : ブジュンブラを経由してギテガ等にも送電されるため、全てをブジュンブラで消費する訳ではない。

要約-6 DGHER 1. 6 % Thermal Other Isolated 0% HEPPs 3.692MW Private Hydro 2.2% (Isolated) (REGIDESO) 11. 5 % 6.655GWh Ruvyironza 4.1% Hydro 1.275MW (Import) (REGIDESO) 4% 70.564GWh Under Rehabilitation Total Rwegura Total 52.6% 43.3% 32.186 18M W 162.938 Mugere MW (REGIDESO) GWh 8MW 24.9% Hydro 55.9% (REGIDESO) id (Interconnected) id r r G G l 85.719GWh l h a a n W n W io M io G t 5 % t 3 % a 7 7 a 8 9 N 2 . N 2 . . 4 . 5 r 7 8 r 6 9 o 2 o 5 F F 1

図 3.2 ブルンジの水力発電所図 3.3 輸入分を含むブルンジの電力生産高（2004 年）

一方、ブルンジの水力発電所の大半は 1980 年代に建設されており、一部 1950 年代のものすらある。このため、施設の老朽化による問題となっている。現在 7 つのミニ・マイクロ水力発電所が運転を停止しており、5 つの水力発電所がリハビリ中である。

3.5 送配電設備主要需要地であるブジュンブラに送電するために建設された送電線を中心に 110 kV、70 kV、 35 kV、30 kV および 10 kV からなる国内送電線網が形成されている。ブルンジの国内送電線網を図 3.4 に示す。図より、110 kV と 70 kV の送電線がブジュンブラから DRC に向かって延びており国際連系線となっている。70 kV の送電線は Ruzizi I 水力発電所と、110 kV の送電線は Ruzizi II 水力発電所と繋がっている。また、ブジュンブラには SNEL、RN1 および OZONE という 3 つの変電所があり、発電所からの受電、ギテガ等他の都市との送受電およびブジュンブラ市とその周辺地域への配電を行っている。

送配電設備に関する課題については、既設変電所のスイッチギアーが古くなっており交換する必要があるが、ヨーロッパの援助が見込まれている。また、送電線は内戦による損傷後、鉄塔および電線は交換したので問題ないが、通信設備のリハビリが必要である。現在は無線で対応している。なお、Ruzizi I 水力発電所から SNEL 変電所までの送電線については、電線は 70 kV 対応だが、鉄塔は上記交換の際に 110 kV 対応のものを建てており、将来的には電線と変電所をアップグレードして 110 kV での受電を行いたいようである。

要約-7

Source: REGIDESO 図 3.4 ブルンジ国内送電線網

3.6 電力需要ブルンジにおける供給／消費電力および全ロスの変遷を過去のスタディ・レポートならびに MIN E&M の統計資料等を組み合わせて作成した。結果を図 3.5 に示す。図より、内戦期間中の 1995 年から 1997 年にかけて消費電力が急減していること、1997 年の全ロスが突出していることが判る。しかしながら、内戦時のロスが大きいことを考慮しても、80%以上の全ロスは現実としては考え難い。また、内戦前は約 20%程度、内戦後は 30～40%の全ロスが認められる。一方、現地調査時に REGIDESO に対して行ったヒアリングでは、送配電ロスについてはデータがなく、それぞれは把握できていないが、内戦後の全ロスは約 25%、内戦前の全ロスは約 13%とのことであった。

要約-8 350 Legend Supplied Energy, Whole Burundi Sogreah 1995 300 gh Supplied Energy, Network Interconnected Hi e ddl 250 Consumed Energy, Whole Burundi Mi Consumed Energy, Network Interconnected Low 200 Consumed Energy, Bujumbura High e 150 Middl 100 Sogreah 2001 50

Supplied/Consumed Energy (GWh) Energy Supplied/Consumed 0 100 Network Interconnected 80 Whole Burundi 60 40 20 Total Loss (%) 0

1981 1991 2001 2010 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 図 3.5 ブルンジにおける供給／消費電力および全ロスの変遷3

需要想定については、Sogreah、Lahmeyer など様々なコンサルタントが実施しており、解析時期と条件の違いにより結果が大きく異なっている。特に、内戦の影響で 1995 年から 1997 年の消費量が大きく落ち込んでいるため、解析基準年を内戦前に設定した場合と内戦後に設定した場合では、全く異なる結果が生じている。本報告書ではスタディ・レポートを入手しており、解析結果のみでなく解析条件、解析過程が把握できる Sogreah の 2 例、1995 年の解析結果（資料 No.17）と 2001 年の解析結果（資料 No.11）を参考として挙げた。図中のプロットはいずれもブルンジ全体の消費電力を表している。

この 2001 年の Sogreah の解析結果（以下、Sogreah 2001）より、ミドル・ケースの結果を表 3.2 に、ハイ・ケースの結果を表 3.3 にそれぞれ示す。ミドル・ケースでは需要の伸びを年 3.3%、ハイ・ケースでは需要の伸びを年 4.4%と見込んでいる。なお、図 3.5 に示す 2004 年までの消費実績を見てみると、2002 年から需要が頭打ちとなっているが、これは本来の需要を表している訳ではないと考えられる。なぜならば、ブルンジでは供給力不足を補うために、需要を制限する計画停電を実施しているからである。

この順調に伸びる電力の潜在需要に対して根本的に供給不足であることがブルンジの電力セクターの大きな課題であり、ブジュンブラを中心としたブルンジ全体の産業振興を阻害する原因ともなっている。

3 : ここに、図中の折れ線グラフや棒グラフが欠けている年は、実績データが存在していないことを意味する。特に、供給電力と消費電力の差分から求めた全ロス（棒グラフ）については、同じ年に両方のデータが得られた場合のみ表示している。

要約-9 REGIDESO で行ったヒアリングによると、45 MWの潜在需要に対して、最大供給量が 26 MW （独立した水力発電所も含む）であるため、19 MW が慢性的に不足している状態にあるとのことであった。このため、計画停電を実施している。実施に際しては、新聞・ラジオを通じて、供給を止める地域と時間帯を予告している。また、日負荷（Daily load）については、計画停電をしているので把握するのは難しいが、ピークは 18～21 時の夜間に発生しているとのことであった。

表 3.2 2000 年から 2010 年の地域別需要想定および必要生産高（MWh）（ミドル・ケース） 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Consumed Energy Total Demand (Whole Burundi) 102,994 126,546 134,166 143,200 153,213 164,091 Percentage of Bujumbura (%) 74.7% 75.5% 73.7% 71.8% 69.9% 68.1% Bujumbura 76,897 95,524 98,874 102,763 107,079 111,699 Network Interconnected 98,161 120,610 134,166 143,200 153,213 164,091 Necessary Production (Supplied Energy) Total Loss (%) 39% 33% 30% 26% 22% 20% Network Interconnected 136,783 160,412 174,416 180,431 186,920 196,910 Peak Power (MW) 26.2 MW 31.6 MW 34.3 MW 35.5 MW 36.8 MW 38.8 MW

Source: Audit des Installations de Production, Transport et Distribution d’Eau et d’Electricite de la REGIDESO, June 2001

表 3.3 2000 年から 2010 年の地域別需要想定および必要生産高（MWh）（ハイ・ケース） 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010

Consumed Energy Total Demand (Whole Burundi) 102,994 129,546 138,959 151,251 165,900 182,168 Percentage of Bujumbura (%) 74.7% 76.1% 73.7% 71.0% 68.3% 65.8% Bujumbura 76,897 98,524 102,462 107,455 113,316 119,804 Network Interconnected 98,161 123,610 138,959 151,251 165,900 182,168 Necessary Production (Supplied Energy) Total Loss (%) 39% 33% 30% 26% 22% 20% Network Interconnected 136,783 164,402 180,647 190,576 202,398 218,602 Peak Power (MW) 26.2 MW 32.4 MW 35.6 MW 37.5 MW 39.8 MW 43.0 MW

Source: Audit des Installations de Production, Transport et Distribution d’Eau et d’Electricite de la REGIDESO, June 2001

要約-10 ブルンジの電源構成は水力主体であるため、乾期（一般的に 6 月～9 月）になると供給可能な発電容量は半分以下になる。2006 年 8 月現在、供給可能な発電容量は 23MW であった。これは表 3.1 に示す総設備容量の 40%である。供給力低下の原因は、発電所の貯水池水位が低下することと、河川の流入量が減ることにより出力が低下するためである。特に、ここ数年は渇水が続いており、慢性的に貯水池水位が下がっている状況である。

3.7 電力輸出入高まる電力需要に応えるため、ブルンジは DRC と国際連系された国内送電線網を通じて電力輸入を行っている。ここに、Ruzizi I および Ruzizi II は Kivu 湖を流れ出て Tanganyika 湖に注ぐ Ruzizi 川に建設された水力発電所で、Ruzizi I は SNEL、Ruzizi II は SINELAC が管理運営を行っている。現在、Ruzizi I 水力発電所の設備容量 28.2 MW のうち最大 8 MW が、また Ruzizi II からは同 36 MW のうち最大 12 MW がブルンジに送られることになっている。ブルンジの電力輸入量は年々増えている。電力生産に占める輸入の割合は、Ruzizi I 水力発電所からの電力輸入を開始した 1987 年には 12.4%に過ぎなかったが、2004 年には電力生産高の 44.3%を輸入に依存している状況である（図 3.3 参照）。なお、参考までに 2005 年時点の Ruzizi II 水力発電所からの電力輸入価格は、約 2.0 ¢/kWh である。一方、ブジュンブラ西方に位置する DRC の市街地に向けて、SNEL 変電所から 15 kV の送電による電力輸出も行われている。このため、輸入量と輸出量の差分がブルンジの購入量となる。

3.8 電気料金 REGIDESO によると、現在の電気料金は、平均すると約 80 FBU/kWh（約 8.0 ¢/kWh）であり、料金が急激に上がらないよう、政府によってコントロールされているとのことである。

3.9 人材育成 REGIDESO ではトレーニングの一環として、各種の国際会議への出席や、ドナーが招聘するトレーニングプログラムに参加している。しかしながら、ヒアリングによると、REGIDESO はトレーニングプログラムをいくつか持っているものの、実施のための資金が不足しているとのことであり、内容の詳細について知ることは出来なかった。

3.10 環境影響評価制度過去に実施された環境影響評価（EIA）は各ドナーの規定に基づいており、環境法（改定中）に記載された EIA の手順もこれらの規定に準拠したものとなっていると推察される。なお、 EIA の結果は、設立された国家環境委員会（National Environmental Commission）に提出し、評価され、承認される必要がある。

要約-11 4. ブジュンブラ地域の概要

4.1 概況ブジュンブラは、Tanganyika 湖の北東に位置するブルンジの首都である。ブルンジ最大の都市かつ同国の政治・経済の中心であり、2003 年時点の人口は 365,000 人である。現在ではブルンジ第二の都市であるギテガは旧首都であり、ブジュンブラはもともとは小さな村であった。1889 年にドイツ領東アフリカの軍事拠点となって以降急速に発展を遂げ、1962 年にブルンジが独立したのと同時に、市名がウサンブラからブジュンブラに変更された。

“3. ブルンジの電力セクター”で述べたように、国内送電線網経由でブルンジの電力生産の 95.9%（2004 年の場合、輸入分を含む）が主要需要地であるブジュンブラに送られている。このブジュンブラ市およびその周辺地域（以下、ブジュンブラ地域）は、ブルンジ内で最も電化が進んだ地域であると言えるが、他国の首都圏と比較した場合、電化率は依然として低い水準にある。

1993 年時点でブルンジ全体での電化率は 1.5%である一方、ブジュンブラ地域の電化率は 27%であった。しかしながら、2000 年にはブジュンブラ地域の電化率は 21.5%にまで落ち込んでいる。その主な原因として、ブジュンブラ地域で増加する人口に対して配電が行き届いていない、また電力供給そのものも不足しているために、契約者（世帯）が人口に見合った割合で増えていないことが挙げられる。

REGIDESO では、電気料金回収のためにも契約者（世帯）を増やしたいと考えており、そのために無電化地域に配電網を拡張すること、さらにその前提条件としてブジュンブラ地域で使用可能な国内送電線網への電力供給量を増やすことを切望している。しかしながら、実際には需要に対して供給量が不足しているために、需要を制限する計画停電を実施しているのが現状である。

4.2 ブジュンブラ地域の電力需要図 3.5 はブルンジにおける供給／消費電力および全ロスの変遷を示しているが、同図にはブジュンブラ地域の消費電力も併記されている。過去のスタディ・レポートによると、ブジュンブラ地域における消費電力の最新の値は、1999 年の 80 GWh である。この電力量は、同年のブルンジ全体での消費電力（104 GWh）の 76.8%を占める。

図 4.1 は 1988 年から 1999 年のブジュンブラ地域の消費電力をセクター別（家庭用、工業用、商業用、公共用）に分類して図化したものである。

要約-12 150 Legend

Supplied Energy, Whole Burundi Supplied Energy, Network Interconnected

Consumed Energy, Whole Burundi Consumed Energy, Network Interconnected 100 Consumed Energy, Bujumbura

50 Industrial Public Residential Supplied/Consumed Energy (GWh) Energy Supplied/Consumed Commercial

1981 1991 2001 2010 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 図 4.1 ブジュンブラ地域におけるセクター別消費電力の変遷

図より、内戦後の２年間（1997 年～1999 年）の数値だけをみても 1999 年以降のブジュンブラ地域のトレンドをセクター毎に予測するのは難しい。しかしながら、2004 年までのブルンジ全体の消費電力が増加傾向にあること、1999 年時点でのブジュンブラ地域の電力量がブルンジ全体の 76.8%を占める主要な消費地であることからも、1999 年以降にブジュンブラ地域の各セクターの消費電力が全体として増加傾向にあることは明らかである。

4.3 ブジュンブラ地域における電力需要の将来展望今後ブルンジの経済成長が進み、地方部の開発が進むと同時に、国内送電線網がさらに広域に展開すれば、電力の消費地もブジュンブラ地域だけでなく、ブルンジ内で広く分散することが予想される。しかしながら、1999 年以降の電化率に関する実績資料がなく、現在のブジュンブラ地域の電化状況が不明であるため、“3.6 電力需要”に示した、Sogreah 2001 の需要想定結果ならびにブジュンブラ地域の電化計画に関する Lahmeyer のレポート（以下、 Lahmeyer 2001）の需要想定結果をもとに将来展望について述べる。

Lahmeyer 2001 では、2015 年を目標年とし、同年におけるブジュンブラ地域の電化率が、(i) 1999 年の水準を維持（20.8%）、(ii) 25%達成、(iii) 50%達成、(iv) 95%達成の 4 ケースを想定し、この達成に必要な新規契約者（世帯）数を求めている。その結果、各ケースの達成のためには、(i) 800 世帯/年、(ii) 1,300 世帯/年、(iii) 3,700 世帯/年、(iv) 8,000 世帯/年の新規契約者（世帯）が必要だとしている。

要約-13 ここに、最新のブジュンブラ市の統計人口は 2003 年の 365,382 人である。したがって、 Lahmeyer 2001 の需要想定で用いている世帯内人数から 2003 年の値である 3.97 人/世帯を用いて世帯数を求めると、92,036 世帯となる。一方、MIN E&M の 2003 年統計資料（資料 No.23）によると、2003 年におけるブジュンブラ地域の契約者数は 20,754 であることから、2003 年時点のブジュンブラ地域の電化率は 22.5%と求めることが出来る。また、2000 年と 2003 年の契約者数の差分は 20,754 – 17617 = 3,137 であることから、1 年当たりの契約者（世帯）の増分は 1,046 となる。

一方、Sogreah 2001 の需要想定結果では、ブルンジ全体の消費電力に対するブジュンブラ地域の消費電力の占める割合を求めている。これによると、ミドル・ケースの場合、2000 年で 74.7%、2002 年で 75.5%、2004 年で 73.7%（表 3.2 参照）となっている。これらの割合を 2000 年から 2004 年までのブルンジ全体の消費電力の実績値に適用してブジュンブラ地域の消費電力を求めた結果を図 4.2 に示す。また、同図には表 3.2 および表 3.3 に示す 2010 年までの Sogreah 2001 の需要想定結果も併記した。

150 Legend

Supplied Energy, Whole Burundi Supplied Energy, Network Interconnected h Hig Consumed Energy, Whole Burundi dle Consumed Energy, Network Interconnected Mid 100 Consumed Energy, Bujumbura Sogreah 2001

st ca re Fo

50 Industrial Public Residential Supplied/Consumed Energy (GWh) Energy Supplied/Consumed Commercial

1981 1991 2001 2010 1980 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 図 4.2 ブジュンブラ地域における電力需要の将来展望

図より、2004 年における (a) Sogreah 2001 のミドル・ケースに示すブジュンブラ地域の消費電力の占める割合をブルンジ全体の消費電力の実績値に適用した場合、(b) Sogreah 2001（ミドル・ケース）、(c) 同（ハイ・ケース）の値は、それぞれ (a) 93 GWh、(b) 98.8 GWh、(c) 102.5 GWh となる。

要約-14 以上より、ブジュンブラ地域の現状は、電化率が 22.5%程度、消費電力は 90~95 GWh であり、ブルンジ全体に占める割合は 71~75%であると推定される。

なお、潜在的には消費電力として 98~103 GWh 程度のキャパシティを 2004 年時点で有するものと考えられる。さらに、ブルンジが今後順調に貧困から脱却し、経済発展を遂げるためには、2010 年には 110~120 GWh の電力がブジュンブラ地域で必要となることを示唆しており、これを見据えた国内送電線網への安定した電源の確保、ブジュンブラ地域内でのさらなる配電網の拡張が急務である。

5. 電化による地域振興効果

5.1 背景ブルンジの人口は年々増加しており、特にブジュンブラ等の都市部への人口集中が想定されている。それに伴い、新たな雇用創出または収入機会、開発中の振興住宅地および活気あふれる労働者街の需要に見合ったインフラの整備が必要となっている。特に、安定した十分な電力を望んでいる市民がいる一方で計画停電を常に実施せざるを得ない現状は、産業および市民生活レベルの底上げの妨げとなっている。

5.2 可能性安定した十分な電力を得ることによる地域振興の可能性について下記に考察する。【生活レベルの底上げ】計画停電下での電気の用途は、バッテリーの充電および電灯だけであるとのことである。もし、安定した電力が連続して得られるのであれば、冷蔵庫やテレビ、調理用熱源として電気を使用したいとのことであった。しかし現状は、「電力不足（計画停電）→ 電化製品購買意欲低下（生活水準向上意欲なし）→ 電力料金値上げ不可 → ディーゼル発電の導入不可 → 電力不足」の悪循環となっており、生活レベルの底上げが望めない状況である。【中小企業の振興】中小企業では安定した十分な電力が得られないため、「電力不足（計画停電）→ 生産性向上なし（非効率な作業）→ 電力料金値上げ不可 → ディーゼル発電の導入不可 → 電力不足」の悪循環となっている。現地でのインタビューでは、計画停電される不安定な電力がネックになっており、停電がない安定な電力が供給されるのであれば、電気工具の使用により作業がはかどるので、多少の電気料金の値上げも受容できるとのことである。【水道設備の整備】ブジュンブラ市では、Tanganyika 湖からの水をポンプアップすることにより水道が整備されている。ブジュンブラ市の水道使用者数は近年、約 5 パーセントの年率で増加している。

要約-15 ポンプアップに必要な電力の安定供給は、難民の帰還等を含む人口増加に面しているブジュンブラ市において、水道の整備に先立つ重要な事項であり、振興住宅地区の整備において電力は欠かせない。【観光業の振興】世界的に有名な Tanganyika 湖での遊覧、マリンスポーツ、エコツーリズムなどを背景とした観光振興は、外貨獲得の手段としてだけではなく、新たなホテル、レストラン等のための従業員など、雇用創出の効果が大きい。現在はブジュンブラ市の電力不足のため、ホテルには小型ディーゼル等の自家発施設が不可欠となっている。【産業の振興－缶詰工場】タンザニアでは Tanganyika 湖で採れる魚を缶詰にして輸出しているとのことであり、同じ Tanganyika 湖岸のブルンジでも同様の産業の可能性があるが、やはり十分な電力が必要である。また、缶詰め技術により、食糧の備蓄、内陸部への供給が可能になり食糧の自給にも寄与する。【鉱業の振興】主な鉱物資源として、ニッケル、バナジウム、金等の埋蔵が確認されている。特に世界有数の埋蔵量を誇るバナジウムとニッケルは、将来、外貨獲得の有力な手段として国家の基幹産業となる可能性がある。しかし、十分な電力の不足などが、海外からの投資の妨げになっている。【農村部における振興】本調査はブジュンブラ市を対象としたものであるが、将来的に、周辺の無電化村においても電化することにより、燃料木材採取労働力（女性および子供）のセーブかつ電灯による日没後時間利用により、収入の増大および学力向上が期待できる。

5.3 日本の経験戦後復興または地域振興に関して、日本では下記のような取組み実績および経験を有している。これらは、ブルンジにおける戦後復興および地域振興の参考になる。【戦後復興における支援】過去、ボスニア･ヘルツェゴビナに対する内戦により能力が低下した火力発電所および隣接する炭鉱のリハビリへの融資、スリ･ランカに対する電力関連施設の復旧および北部住民の生活水準向上のためのワウニア･キリノッチ送電線修復事業への融資等を行っている。現在は、イラク復興支援として、電力分野では、緊急無償資金協力によるサマーワでの大型発電所建設、草の根･人間の安全保障無償資金協力による発電所の整備支援、第三国研修（イラク周辺国等の第三国にて行う技術研修）によるヨルダン電力公社での電力事業制度、配電網設計計画の研修等の支援を行っている。【地域環境を生かした地域振興】日本では地域環境を生かした地域振興として、地域の食、菜の花による循環型社会への取

要約-16 組み、エコツーリズムなど、いずれも、有利･不利を問わず地域の特徴を生かした取組みにより地域を活性化させた例がある。【一村一品運動】地域に住む人々が自ら誇ることのできる特産品を見つけ出し、国内だけでなく国外の人々にも買ってもらえる魅力ある商品にする運動である。1979 年に大分県ではじまり、他の都道府県にも普及した。近年、日本では、「開発イニシアティブ」の一環として、開発途上国における「一村一品運動」を支援しており、マラウイ等で成果を挙げている。

5.4 安定した十分な電力による地域振興現在のブジュンブラ市の状況から判断すると、安定した十分な電力の供給そのものが、地域振興すなわち、地域住民の生活レベルの底上げおよび自営業の活性化につながると考えられる。加えて、安定した十分な電力供給能力の向上に合わせたホテル等の設備整備、行政主導による人材教育および対外的なアピールを実施し、観光業による雇用創出と地域振興を行うことが最も現実的であると思われる。図 5.1 に示す同じような国情を持つ隣国ルワンダの国立公園における例によると、内戦終結以降、観光客数が急速に増加しており、2003 年には 16,088 人に到達している。また、一村一品運動も、例えば地 18,000 16,000 元産物であるコーヒーへの付加 14,000 価値付けのきっかけとなるが、安 12,000 10,000 定した十分な電力供給により、日 8,000 6,000 没後の労働力利用や機械による 4,000 増産等の効率化が可能である。 2,000 0 さらに将来的に、民間や海外から 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Year Rwanda North Africa West Africa の投資を呼び込むための基本的 Central Africa East Africa Europe North America Latin America Central America Western Asia Others Asian Countries Oceanea なインフラ整備が実現もしくは Non identify 整備されることが確実となれば、 Soruce: RWANDA DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, Edition no 7/2004 地域の特徴でもある Tanganyika 図 5.1 ルワンダ国の国立公園における観光客数湖の水産資源を生かした缶詰工場や鉱物資源を生かした鉱業など、広域的かつ効果の大きな地域振興が可能となると考えられる。安定した十分な電力の供給は、基本インフラとして、各市民レベルの振興から将来的な民間や海外からの投資呼込みまで、ブジュンブラ市の地域振興には必要不可欠な要素である。

要約-17 6. ブジュンブラ地域電化のための包蔵水力

全土の包蔵水力を調査した 1983 年のレポート（以下、MP1983）によれば、ブルンジの理論包蔵水力は、1,400 MW である。このうち開発可能な包蔵水力は、41 地点、300 MW と推定されている。この 41 水力地点のうち 33 水力地点が、Ruzizi 川と Tanganyika 湖に注ぐ川に位置している。すなわち、首都ブジュンブラ市の南北にある川に包蔵水力が集中している。特に、北部の Kagunuzi 川（上流で Kitenge 川と名を変える）と Kabulantwa 川は、カスケードによる水力開発が可能であり、また、ブジュンブラ市に近い上に、既設送電線、国道に近く、有望な開発地点であると考えられる。

首都のあるブジュンブラ地域の電化のためには、これらの自国資源であり、再生可能エネルギーでクリーンな水力を開発することが重要となると推察される。本章は、既存計画を参考に、今後開発すべき水力地点を調査検討し、ブジュンブラ地域電化のための電化計画のメニューを提案するものである。

6.1 ブルンジの包蔵水力ブルンジの国土の大部分は、標高 2,000m 以上の高原地帯である。したがって、アフリカでは珍しく比較的安定した降雨量の多い国である。首都であるブジュンブラ市は、西大地溝帯の底の部分にある。この大地溝帯にある 2,000m 級の山稜の西斜面は、Kivu 湖（標高 1,462m）と Tanganyika 湖（標高 772m）を結ぶ平野部に急激に落ちるため、急勾配の河川が多数ある。このため各河川では、短い水路で落差が取れる経済的な水力開発が可能となる。しかし、流域面積が比較的小さく年間流量が小さいため、大規模水力の計画は難しい。このため、ブルンジの理論包蔵水力 1,371 MW のうち、Ruzizi 川と Tanganyika 湖に注ぐ支流の包蔵水力は 883 MW で全体の 60%以上を占める。なお、総流域面積 13,328 km2 と、ブルンジの国土面積の半分を占める、Ruvubu 川と Kagera 川はともにナイル河水系の川であり、2 河川の包蔵水力は 383 MW で全体の 28%である。さらに、技術的・経済的に開発可能な水力地点は、41 箇所でその包蔵水力は 294 MW であり、この 41 水力地点のうち 33 水力地点が、Ruzizi 川の支川もしくは Tanganyika 湖に直接注ぐ川に位置する。

6.2 Kagunuzi 川の現地踏査と予備的水力計画検討カウンターパートの REGIDESO と協議し、先に述べた西斜面の川の一つである Kagunuzi 川を踏査した。この川の最上流部には 1983 年に運転を開始した Rwegura 水力発電所（18 MW）があり、過去の MP（1983）、Pre-FS（1993）で、この川の上流部に Kagu 010（10.7 MW）、 Masango（5.8 MW）と Rushiha（10.3 MW）等の地点を提案している。すなわち、Kagunuzi 川は、カスケードの開発が可能で、首都ブジュンブラに近く、更に、既設送電線・国道 5 号線にも近いという好条件を揃えている。このように開発のポテンシャルが高いというこ

要約-18 とと開発までの期間が短そうであるという理由により、調査地点としてこの河川の最下流に計画され、MP1983 レポートで開発可能地点

として挙げられている Kagu 006 を選んだ。

2006 年 8 月 26 日に実施した Kagu 006 水力地点

の現地踏査ルートを図 6.1 に示す。この現地踏査により Kagunuzi 川の急な河床勾配と乾期で

も涸れない流量を確認した。1/50,000 地形図に

よると、Kabu 006 は河床勾配 1/30 の区間の後半部分に位置している。

開発の可能性について、この踏査結果と 1/50,000 地形図をベースに、概略工事費を積算

し、ディーゼルを代替火力として経済性を検討した。流れ込み式と調整池式による単独開発案

について予備的な検討を実施した結果、いずれ

の開発案も財務・経済的に開発の可能性が大きいことを確認した。結果を下表に示す。また、図 6.1 現地踏査ルート図流れ込み式による開発案を図 6.2 に示す。（2006 年 8 月 26 日実施）

今後、Kagu 006 を段階開発の一水力として位置づけ、Kagunuzi 川の段階開発計画を策定し、この中で Kagu 006 の開発方法と適正規模を検討していくことが必要である。また、その際、日流量、浮遊砂量を収集し、規模検討の精度を上げることと流域の土砂管理を考慮することが重要である。

開発方式流れ込み式調整池式備考設備出力（MW） 2.5 6.7

年間発生電力量（GWh) 22.6 53.5 最大使用水量（m3/s） 5.0 8.0

工事費（百万米ドル） 12.1 39.0 NEF 水力開発ﾏﾆｭｱﾙ参照

発電原価（セント/kWh） 6.5 8.8 割引率 10%、耐用年数 50 年年コスト：C（百万米ドル/年） 1.46 4.71

年便益：B（百万米ドル/年） 6.08 14.5 代替火力：ディーゼル発電所

B-C（百万米ドル/年） 4.6 9.8

B/C 4.2 3.1

要約-19

流れ込み式開発案 6.2 Kagu 006 図

要約-20 6.3 ブジュンブラ地域電化シナリオの提案ブルンジは、各国の支援もあり、和平プロセスが進展し、社会経済の復興が進みつつある。今後、国外に避難していた難民の帰還が進むことも予想されており、就労機会を求める人々が都市部に集中し、ますますブジュンブラ市の都市化が進むと考えられる。このため、ブジュンブラ市の電力需要は益々増加することが予想される。一方、ブジュンブラ市をカバーする国内送電線網の電源開発は、この 20 年近く実施されておらず、設備出力は約 50 MW と変わらない。また、電源の 90%以上が水力であるため、乾期の可能発電量が半分以下に減少するという電源構成上の問題点を持っている。

現在、ブジュンブラ市内では、慢性的に電力不足が生じており、地域と時間を指定し、順次電力供給を止めるという計画停電を実施している。このため、市民の医療・教育・福祉などの生活レベルの低下を招いており、また、産業の発展を阻害している。このような深刻な電力不足を改善するため、新たな電源の投入が早急に必要である。自国資源であり豊富なポテンシャルを持つ水力の開発が現在の電力状況を解決する根本的な解決策である。

本節は、ブジュンブラ市の電化シナリオを短期、中長期の計画として提案し、日本政府の支援を仰ぐものである。現在の電化率は 20%台と低いが、首都であるブジュンブラ市およびその周辺地域は、国内送電線網内の最大の電力消費地であり、したがって、この地域の電化計画はブルンジ全土の電化計画に繋がるものと考える。

“7. 結論”の図 7.1 に電化シナリオを示し、以下に内容を説明する。

短期対策 i) 目標：持続可能なベース電源の投入方針：流れ込み式もしくは調整池式水力発電の開発ブジュンブラ市へ送電している 2 大既存水力である Rwegura（18 MW）と Mugere（8 MW）は貯水池式の発電所であり、本来はピークもしくはミドルピーク需要への電力供給を目的として建設されたと考えられる。しかし、国内送電線網に唯一接続された火力発電所であるブジュンブラのディーゼル発電所が、燃料の高騰で稼動していないため、2 大水力発電所は、昼間の需要に対しても電力を供給している。したがって、貯水池の水が不足しがちでピーク時間帯の供給力が落ちているものと推察される。これらの貯水池の機能を活かすには、昼間のベース需要を満たす、安い電源の投入が必要である。対策： Kagu 006 水力地点の開発本章で検討した Kagu 006 は、流れ込み式（2.5 MW)、調整池式（6.7 MW）いずれも良い経済性を示し、かつ、いずれの案もベース需要への電力供給が可

要約-21 能である。この地点は、ブジュンブラ市に近く、既設送電線と国道 5 号線に近接しており、経済的な開発が見込める。さらに、この地点のある Kagunuzi 川上流には複数の水力開発地点があり、段階開発が可能である。この一つであり、Kagu006 地点の直上流で計画されている、Kagu011 が調整池式もしくは貯水池式で開発されれば、流況が改善され Kagu006 の発電量が増えるなど段階開発によるメリットを将来得ることができる。日本の支援：無償資金協力による開発小規模な流れ込み式（2.5 MW）での開発であれば、わが国の無償資金協力による開発の可能性があると考えられる。無償資金協力による開発の場合、FS が完了し、ブルンジ政府から要請書が上がれば、Basic Design から運転を開始するまでの期間は約 2～3 年と比較的短期間で実現可能である。

ii) 目標：新規電源の早期投入方針：即応型電源の導入首都であるブジュンブラ市の電力状況は、計画停電を実施しなければならないほど危篤的な状態となっている。したがって、短期の据付により運転可能な電源の導入が必要である。対策：新規ディーゼル発電機の導入即応可能な電源として、太陽光発電とディーゼル発電が考えられる。しかし、初期投資費用、敷地、発電の柔軟性より、ディーゼル発電機の導入が望ましいと考える。ディーゼル発電であれば、ピーク時、オフピーク時のどの時間帯でも発電可能（発電の柔軟性）である。また、現在の供給力不足が解消された後も、乾期のピーク時の補給に使うことができ、また、緊急時のバックアップ電源として有用である。しかし、燃料費の問題があるので、同時に市内配電線の延伸を計り需要家を増やすと伴に、電気料金の適正化を計る必要がある。日本の支援：無償資金協力による据付 2006 年 5 月に政府に提出された MIN E&M の Sector Policy によると、ブルンジ政府は 10 MW の新規電源の投入を計画している。よって、燃料の高騰のため稼動を止めている既設ディーゼル発電所（5.5 MW）が下記 iii)の手段により運転を再開すれば、早期に投入する新規ディーゼル発電機は 5 MW 程度の規模となる。イラクにおける戦後の緊急支援のような無償の援助による設置が望まれる。

iii) 目標：既存電源の活用方針：既設ディーゼル発電所の運転

要約-22 燃料高騰のため稼動していないブジュンブラ市内にある既設ディーゼル発電所(5.5 MW)に、燃料を供給して発電し、当面の電力危機をしのぐ。対策： a. 燃料の支給 b. 電気料金の適正化無償援助による燃料を使った電気の販売により増える収益、また、ベース供給用の水力発電所の投入によるディーゼル燃料の節約などを考慮し、長期に亘る電気料金の適正化を計る。日本の支援：ノンプロジェクト無償資金協力燃料は、緊急援助として我国のノンプロジェクト無償資金協力4（Non-project Grant Aid）の適用が可能と考えられる。このノンプロジェクト無償資金協力は、既にルワンダで実施されており（2005 年 E/N 交換）、同様の社会経済状況にあるブルンジに適用される可能性が高い。

中長期対策

iv) 目標： a. 持続可能な電源開発 b. 電化地域の拡大方針：水力開発を目指す最適電力開発計画の策定ブジュンブラ地域の需要を長期的に賄うために、持続可能な電源の開発をする必要がある。したがって、豊富なポテンシャルを持つ自国資源である水力の開発が必須である。一般に、水力発電所は計画から運転を開始するまでに 10 年前後の期間を要する。したがって、さらに厳しさが増すと予想される現在の電力危機を長期的に緩和するため、水力開発マスタープランを実施し、これをベースに国内送電線網の送電拡張計画を策定し、最適電力開発計画を確立する。対策：ブジュンブラ地域の水力マスタープランと FS の実施ブルンジの水力ポテンシャルは、ブジュンブラ市の南北にある河川に集中している。したがって、これらの河川を中心に水力マスタープランを実施し、その中で有力な複数の水力地点もしくは水系の FS を同時に実施する。このスタディの期間は、1.5～2 年間。電源開発のための送電拡張計画を含み、かつ、他国からの電力輸入も視野に入れ、需要予測に基づく最適電力開発計画を策定する。また、ブジュンブラ市内の電化率を改善するための配電線延伸計画を含むものとする。

4 : Procedures of this aid program is presented in "Japanese Procurement Programme, A Guide for Beneficiary Governments. End-users, Japanese Embassies, UNDP Country Offices and Suppliers of Goods & Equipment, June 2005, United Nations Office for Project Services".

要約-23 日本の支援：開発調査の実施マスタープランの対象流域は、同一水系の段階開発が可能であり、流域の土砂管理が必要である等、日本の技術が活かせるマスタープランの策定が可能である。国際協力機構の開発調査による技術協力が望まれる。

v) 目標：持続可能な電源開発方針：電力エネルギーの多様化現在の国内送電線網に接続された電源の 90%以上は水力である。石油・石炭・天然ガス等の化石燃料を産出しないため、これまで輸入に頼ったディーゼル以外の火力発電所を建設していない。よって、乾期の可能発電量が半減するという、電源構成に起因する問題を抱えている。ブルンジの自国資源である豊富な水力を開発していくことが重要であるが、エネルギーセキュリティーを確保し、電源のベストミックスを構築するため、多様な資源による火力の導入が将来必要である。対策：自然エネルギーによる発電の可能性調査の実施自国の資源であるピート（泥炭）、バイオマス、太陽光、風力等の自然エネルギーの賦存量を調査し、発電の可能性を調査する。特に、ブルンジ特有の資源であるピートの利用が有望であるが、自然環境への影響を考慮した利用方法を調査する必要がある。日本の支援：開発調査の実施再生可能エネルギーによる地方電化等で日本の国際協力で実績のある分野である。国際協力機構の開発調査による技術協力が望まれる。

要約-24 7. 結論

ブルンジは 1997 年に内戦が終結し、その後各国の支援を得て、電力設備の復旧・リハビリ、配電線の延伸に努めている。しかし、1989 年以降 20 年近く電源開発への投資を行わなかったため、社会経済の復興とともに電力需要が伸び、慢性的な電力不足となっている。現在、これをしのぐため供給量の 40%以上を輸入に頼るとともに、主な消費地であるブジュンブラ市内では、地域・時間を指定し順次電力供給を止める計画停電を実施している。また、ブルンジ全体の電化率は 1.8%（PRSP より）と低い水準にある。首都のあるブジュンブラ地域でも電化率は 20%台と推測されている。一国の首都においても地域振興のための基本インフラである電力の供給が充足されていない状況である。

7.1 ブジュンブラ地域の電化シナリオ慢性的な電力不足と低い電化率という現在の問題に対し、自国資源である水力の開発が根本的な解決策であると認識し、本報告書では、短期および中長期対策として、図 7.1 に示すブジュンブラ地域の電化シナリオを提案する。短期対策は 3 年程度を目途としており、この間に実現可能な、ベース電源となり、環境にやさしい流れ込み式の小水力発電所（2.5 MW）の開発を提案している。また、緊急用、将来のピーク発電のための新規ディーゼル発電所（5 MW 程度）の導入および燃料供給を支援することにより現在稼動を止めている既存ディーゼル発電所（5.5 MW）の活用を提案する。水力開発には 10 年前後の長期間が必要であることを見据えて、中長期対策としては、水力のマスタープランと有望水力地点の事業可能性調査（Feasibility Study）を早急に開始することを提案したい。また、国内送電線網の電源がほぼ水力に偏っているため、乾期の出力低下が免れないという構造的な問題を持っている。したがって、将来の電力エネルギーの多様化を図るためピート、バイオマス、太陽光等の自然エネルギーによる開発の可能性を早い時期に調査すべきである。

7.2 電化による地域振興効果地域振興の可能性はいずれも、安定した十分な電力の供給が前提である。現在のブジュンブラ市の状況から判断すると、安定した十分な電力の供給そのものが、地域振興すなわち、地域住民の生活レベルの底上げおよび中小企業の活性化につながると考えられる。加えて、安定した十分な電力供給能力の改善に合わせたホテル等の設備整備、行政主導による人材教育および海外へのアピール活動により、観光業による雇用創出を図るなど地域振興を行うことが最も現実的であると考える。観光については、隣国のルワンダの先例がある。また、マラウイを始めとする各国での経験を生かした日本発の一村一品運動も、例えば地元産物であるコーヒーへの付加価値付けのきっかけとなるが、安定した十分な電力供給により、日没後の労働力利用や機械による増産等の効率化が可能である。さらに将来、民間や

要約-25 海外からの投資を呼び込むための基本的なインフラ整備が実現もしくは整備されることが確実となれば、地域の特徴でもある Tanganyika 湖の水産資源を生かした缶詰工場や自国の鉱物資源を生かした鉱業など、広域かつ効果の大きい地域振興が可能となると考えられる。

安定した十分な電力の供給は、基本インフラとして、市民レベルの振興から将来の民間や海外からの投資呼込みまで、ブジュンブラ地域の地域振興に必要不可欠な要素である。

7.3 電化によるその他の効果図 7.1 に示す電化シナリオが進み、同図に示すように平和が定着し、地域の振興が図れれば、貧困削減につながる様々な効果が得られるものと推察される。また、水力発電所を開発する場合、例えば、小水力である Kagu 006 でも、アクセス用道路の建設に伴い、周辺地域の物流が活性化する下地が整うだけでなく、直接的な雇用創出にも大きく貢献する。また、上流域の森林保全による流出土砂の軽減や生産向上に向けた営農・営林技術の技術移転を行うなど、ブルンジの統合流域管理に向けてわが国が有する技術と経験を共に伝えることで、Kagunuzi 川流域における間接的な雇用創出や所得向上、さらには Kagunuzi 川流域以外の河川流域での並行展開が期待される。

要約-26

ブジュンブラ地域電化シナリオ

課題

1. 慢性的な電力不足 2. 低い電化率

短期目標： 3年程度

慢性的な電力不足を緊急に改善する

i) Kagu006 水力発電所の開発：持続可能なベース電源の投入

ii) ディーゼル発電所の導入：新規電源の早期投入

iii) 燃料の供給支援：既存電源の活用

中長期目標： 3年以上程度

電化地域の拡大持続可能な電源開発 iv) 水力マスタープランと F/S v) 自然エネルギーによる発電の可能性調査

効果効果

社会経済復興の進展・促進平和の定着・持続

地域振興貧困削減産業振興

雇用機会の増大

図 7.1 ブジュンブラ地域の電化シナリオ

要約-27