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Road Maps to the Future Road Maps to the Future BY BOHDAN HAWRYLYSHYN PERGAMON PRESS Copyright © 1980 Bohdan Hawrylyshyn All Rights Reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means: electronic, electrostatic, magnetic tape, mechanical, photocopying, recording or otherwise, without permission in writing from the publishers. First edition 1980 Reprinted 1981 British Library Cataloguing in Publication Data Hawrylyshyn, Bohdan Road Maps to the Future 1. Social evolution 2. Social systems I. Title 301.24 GN360 80-40690 ISBN 0-08-026115-9 Hardcover ISBN 0-08-026114-0 Flexicover Second edition published by XXXXXXXXXXXX Printed in Great Britain by A Wheaton & Co Ltd, Exeter Contents Foreword to the first edition ix Preface to the Second English Edition xi Introduction xv 1. Effectiveness of Societies – An Overview 1 Measures of Effectiveness 1 Determinants of Effectiveness 2 Components of Societal Order 4 VALUES 4 POLITICAL GOVERNANCE 6 ECONOMIC SYSTEMS 6 Evolution of Societal Orders 7 2. The Origin of Man and His Ideologies 11 3. The Components of Societal Orders 18 Values 18 INDIVIDUALISTIC-COMPETITIVE 18 GROUP-COOPERATIVE 20 EGALITARIAN-COLLECTIVIST 24 Political Governance 28 COUNTERVAILING POWERS 30 SHARED-CONSENSUAL POWER 34 UNITARY POWER 38 Economic Systems 41 FREE ENTERPRISE 43 CONCERTED FREE ENTERPRISE 53 COMMAND-STATE ENTERPRISE 58 DISTRIBUTIVE SOCIALISM 67 MARKET SOCIALISM 73 4. The State of Nation-States 79 THE UNITED STATES 80 1. Its Recent Past 80 v vi Road Maps to the Future 2. Its Present State 82 2.1. ASSETS 82 2.2. LIABILITIES 83 3. Future Directions 86 3.1. VALUES 86 3.2. POLITICAL GOVERNANCE 90 3.3. ECONOMIC SYSTEM 92 THE SOVIET UNION 95 1. Its Recent Past 95 2. The Present Balance Sheet 96 2.1. ASSETS 97 2.2. LIABILITIES 98 3. Future Options 102 3.1. ECONOMIC SYSTEM 102 3.2. POLITICAL GOVERNANCE 104 3.3. VALUES 105 4. Feasibility of a Peaceful Evolution 107 THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO 109 JAPAN 110 1. Its Past 110 2. The Present State 114 3. Future Options 114 CHINA 116 1. The Long March 116 2. Present Condition 119 2.1. ASSETS 120 2.2. LIABILITIES 121 3. The Roads to Travel 122 WESTERN EUROPE 129 1. The Present State 130 FRANCE 130 GERMANY 132 ITALY 134 THE UNITED KINGDOM 135 BELGIUM AND THE NETHERLANDS 138 SWEDEN 139 SWITZERLAND 141 2. Europe – A Political Pilot Plant? 146 Contents vii INDIA 148 1. Its Rich History and Current Condition 149 2. Future Paths 154 3. India – Object of Sympathy or Source of Learning? 156 BRAZIL 157 1. Its Recent Start 157 2. Its Present State 159 2.1. ASSETS 159 2.2. LIABILITIES 160 3. Future Options 160 5. Different Roads to Common Destiny 162 Forces Favouring World Integration 163 The Impeding Forces 165 Are There any Real Alternatives? 166 Inevitability of a World Order 167 THE NECESSARY PRECONDITIONS 168 Feasibility of a World Order 170 6. Retrospective – 2009 172 The United States 172 The Soviet Union 173 Japan 174 China 176 Western Europe 178 France 178 Germany 179 Italy 180 The United Kingdom 181 Belgium and the Netherlands 182 Sweden 183 Switzerland 184 Europe – A Political Pilot Plant? 186 India 187 Brazil 188 A New World Order 190 viii Road Maps to the Future 7. Ukraine: The Last 20 Years and the Next 20 192 The Road to Independence 192 Nomenclature in Power (1992–1994) 194 The First Mandate of President Kuchma (1994–1999) 196 Democratic Regression (1999–2004) 196 The Orange Revolution 197 Years of Disillusion and Political Chaos (2005–2008) 199 The Road to a Normal State – The Next 20 Years 200 Necessary Actions and Events for Ukraine to Become a Normal State 204 Summary 207 APPENDIX: Measures of Effectiveness 209 Foreword to the first edition Dr Bohdan Hhawrylyshyn is one of the most distinguished scholars and advisers on business and economic affairs. I have had a close personal relationship with him as a fellow member of the Club of Rome and as a board member of the CEI (Centre d’Etudes Industrielles – International Management Institute, Geneva) of which he is the Director. He has worked in several professions and therefore has varied learning experiences. He has a profound interest in the behaviour of individuals, the functioning and management of organizations and the effectiveness of different societies. In the chapter “Effectiveness of Societies – An Overview” there is a table which shows in a symbolic fashion the main prototype components of societal orders. I was much interested in it. According to his assertion in this book, the main components of societal orders, on which nation-states are based, are a set of values, a form of governance and an economic system. Through objective analyses we need to gain an improved under- standing of how different countries function. His method of analysing the state of nation-states is very interesting. We need to understand the different nation-states on their terms and not just in comparison with some standard reference country. This is particularly true of countries and economic systems which are not just emulations of superpowers such as the USA and the Soviet Union. Both our ability and our desire to learn from different societal experiences have to increase. He also advocates an ideological liberation from doctrinaire nineteenth- century ideologies to a pragmatic ideology that would have a universal appeal. We must search for ways in which different societies can evolve, rather than become frozen in the moulds of yesterday’s beliefs, ideologies and problems. Unless they evolve, they become dysfunctional or have to be broken up through revolutionary upheavals. ix x Road Maps to the Future It is hoped that the direction of evolution of various societies will be such as to make them more compatible with each other and make it possible for them to be accommodated within a still very distant but inevitable world order. I hope that this book will contribute to the debate on road maps to the future and that this debate will be pursued by the people of many countries. DR SABURO OKITA * * Saburo Okita was the architect of Japan’s economic miracle and later Minister of Foreign Affairs of Japan. Preface to the Second English Edition In general people experience their present naively, as it were, without being able to form an estimate of its contents … They have first to put themselves at a distance from it … The present so to say must have become the past before it can yield points of vantage from which to judge the future. (SIGMUN D FREU D ) The first edition of this book was published in 1980. I wrote it in English, which by that time had become my primary working language. The book subsequently appeared in French, German, Spanish, Japanese, Korean, Polish and, finally, in Ukrainian in 1990. What induced me to write this book, what were the sources of ideas, of inspiration? In my youth I lived and studied under three different political regimes: Polish, Soviet and German. Later I lived in Canada where I did my university studies, then in Switzerland, where I did my PhD. I had gone through various educational streams: engineering, management and economics. By chance more than by choice, I have worked in several professions: as a lumberjack, engineer, inventor, manager, professor and institution builder. I travelled to 70 countries, many of them at very dif- ferent phases of their political, economic or social development, I gave lectures, chaired conferences and acted as a consultant to various govern- ments and corporations. This, in some ways, was analogous to living in one country going through different phases of political, economic and social transformation. Such varied learning experiences, both formal and practical, allow one to view things from different perspectives, to “put oneself at some distance from the present”, and to gain explanatory power to understand the limits of particular disciplines and relations between them. They also facilitate understanding of the interaction between the key components of societal orders, i.e. values, political governance and economic systems. xi xii Road Maps to the Future This understanding led to the exploration of why and how the various societal orders emerged, their advantages and disadvantages, assets and liabilities, potential and limitations, effectiveness and ineffectiveness, their current state, and how they might change in the future. The desire to share some of my perceptions and conclusions by writing this book was triggered by debates in the Club of Rome and similar circles on “World Problematique”. These debates improved our understanding of the complexity, interrelatedness and growing gravity of problems that confront humanity. It sharpened the need to search for ways out of our predicaments, for ways that could lead the world to a better tomorrow. To explore the experience of different societies and analyse their effective- ness, I had to create new concepts and a “new discipline”, which could be called “the architecture of societal orders”. I thus offered, in all humility, an analysis of certain selected countries and their current state and made a number of suggestions as to how these nation-states might evolve into more effective ones and scenarios of what their future state might be. In my opinion, the basic method for exploring and then indicating different ways of possible development of various societies and of prog- nosticating the possibilities of such evolutions has stood the test of time. Except for this preface, the original text is reprinted. If I were to write a corrected and updated one, it would, probably, evoke the questions if I was not trying to adapt my theories and concepts to what has actually transpired during the last three decades.