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Toll-Road Ppps and Managing Traffic Risk

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Toll-Road Ppps and Managing Traffic Risk Identifying, Mitigating Toll-Road PPPs and Managing Traffic Risk Matt Bull with Anita Mauchan and Lauren Wilson PPIAF | World Bank Group | Toll-Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk ›› 1 Prophesy is a good line of business, but it is full of risks. “ —Mark Twain,” Author 2 ‹‹ Toll-Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk | PPIAF | World Bank Group Table of Contents ABOUT THE AUTHORS . 1 ABBREVIATIONS AND ACRONYMS . 2 ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS . 3 PART I: UNDERSTANDING TOLL ROAD PPPS AND TRAFFIC RISK . 4 1. INTRODUCTION TO TRAFFIC RISK .................................................5 2. DEFINING HIGHWAY PPPS AND THE ROLE OF TRAFFIC RISK . .9 3. THE IMPORTANCE OF THE TRAFFIC FORECAST ...................................13 PART II: IDENTIFYING AND REDUCING TRAFFIC RISK: ERROR, UNCERTAINTY AND BIAS . .20 4. INTRODUCING THE SOURCES OF TRAFFIC RISK . 21 5. ERROR: FORECASTING ‘IN-SCOPE’ TRAFFIC .......................................24 6. UNCERTAINTY: FORECASTING FUTURE TRAFFIC ..................................30 7. BIAS: DELUSION, DISTORTION AND CURSES ......................................40 PART III: STRUCTURING AND ALLOCATING TRAFFIC RISK . .52 8. INTRODUCTION: THE STRUCTURING CHALLENGE ................................53 9. SHADOW RISK MODELING: ANALYZING AND QUANTIFYING TRAFFIC RISK .......56 10. ALLOCATING TRAFFIC RISK .....................................................64 11. CONCLUSION...................................................................75 ANNEXES . .78 ANNEX A: WILLINGNESS TO PAY . 79 ANNEX B: EXAMPLE SCOPE OF WORK FOR TRAFFIC ADVISOR . 81 ANNEX C: SOURCES OF SURVEY ERROR . 83 ANNEX D: SOURCES OF MODELING ERROR . .85 ANNEX E: TYPICAL PPP CONTRACT STRUCTURE . .87 ANNEX F: CASHFLOWS FROM THE DUMMY EXAMPLE OF A SPECULATIVE BIDDER CALL ON TRAFFIC AND REVENUE . .89 ANNEX G: SHADOW BID FINANCIAL MODELING . 96. ANNEX H: TRAFFIC RISK INDEX . .98 PPIAF | World Bank Group | Toll-Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk ›› i Table of Boxes Box 1: Summary of Chapter 1 . 8 Box 2: Typology for Commercial Models of Toll-Highway PPP Projects . 10 Box 3: Summary of Chapter 2 . 12 Box 4: Summary of Chapter 3 . 18 Box 5: Summary of Chapter 4 . 23. Box 6: Summary of Chapter 5 . 28. Box 7: Case Study: Hungary's M1-M5 (Failure) . .29 Box 8: Summary of Chapter 6 . .37 Box 9: Case Study: N4 Maputo-Corridor Toll Highway, South Africa and Mozambique (Success) . .39 Box 10: Summary Example of a Speculative Bidder Call on Traffic and Revenue . .43 Box 11: Over-Estimated Travel Forecasts— Real-Life Examples of Error, Uncertainty and Bias . .47 Box 12: Summary of Chapter 7 . .49 Box 13: Case Study—Radial Toll Highways in Madrid, Spain . .50 Box 14: Summary of Chapter 8 . 55. Box 15: Summary of Chapter 9 . 63 Box 16: Early-Stage Traffic-Risk Management . 71 Box 17: Summary of Chapter 10 . 74 ii ‹‹ Toll-Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk | PPIAF | World Bank Group Table of Figures Figure 1: Empirical Research on Traffic Risk . 6 Figure 2: The Cause and Effect of Traffic Risk . 7 Figure 3: Typical Methodological Approach to Toll-Highway Traffic Studies . 15 Figure 4: The Building Blocks of Traffic Risk: Breakdown of Theoretical Traffic Forecasts Produced for Toll-Highway Scheme . .22 Figure 5: Minimum Measures to Reduce Bias . .46 Figure 6: The Structuring Challenge—The Nexus of Risk Transfer, Affordability and Bankability . 5. 3 Figure 7: Structuring Cycle . .55 Figure 8: Fictional Traffic Forecast for Low, Base and High Cases . 59 Figure 9: Credit Zones and DSCR/LLCR Boundaries . 62 Figure 10: Structuring Options for Allocating Traffic Risk . .64 Figure 11: Traffic Banding in Shadow-Toll Projects . .68 Figure 12: Conceptual Diagram of an FTC . 73 Figure 13: Toll Elasticity of Demand and the Impact on Revenue . .80 Figure 14: Typical PPP Contract Structure . .87 Figure 15: A Typical Structure of a Shadow-Bid Financial Model . .96 PPIAF | World Bank Group | Toll-Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk ›› iii Table of Tables Table 1: Sources of Error in Estimating Diverted Traffic . 27 Table 2: Forecasting-Error Sources and Reduction Measures . 28. Table 3: Uncertainty—Sources and Minimization Measures . .38 Table 4: Traffic-Risk Index Summary . .58 Table 5: Input Assumptions for a Fictional Traffic and Revenue Forecast (Base, Low and High Cases) . 59. Table 6: Simple Framework for Assessing the Credit Impact of Traffic Risk . 63 Table 7: Considerations for Using an Availability Payment . .66 Table 8: Considerations for Using a Blended-Availability Payment . 67. Table 9: Considerations for Using a Shadow-Toll Structure . .69. Table 10: Considerations for Using an MRG/Revenue-Sharing Structure . .70 Table 11: Considerations for Using a Government-Equity Model Structure . 72. Table 12: Considerations for Using a Full User-Pays Structure . 72 Table 13: Considerations for Using a Flexible-Term Contract Structure . 74 Table 14: Results of Financial Models Applied to Hypothetical Example . .90 Table 15: Revenue, Cash Flows, and IRR Calculations . 92 iv ‹‹ Toll-Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk | PPIAF | World Bank Group About The Authors Matt Bull, Senior Infrastructure Finance Specialist, The World Bank (The Global Infrastructure Facility) Matt began his career as a transport economist with the international consultancy firm Steer Davies Gleave, where he worked as a traffic advisor on various transport public-private partnership (PPP) projects for a range of global clients, including governments, sponsors and financiers. He joined PwC’s UK Corporate Finance team in 2007, to provide financial and deal structuring advice on both the “sell side” and “bid side” of a range of big-ticket PPP and private-finance initiative (PFI) transactions. He joined the World Bank’s Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility (PPIAF) in 2011, serving as its transport-sector specialist until he was appointed acting manager in 2014. He recently joined the newly established Global Infrastructure Facility (GIF), a major global-funding platform for infrastructure projects housed at the World Bank, within which developed-country governments, major development banks and leading infrastructure investors collaborate to finance improved infrastructure in emerging and developing economies. Matt holds an MA in transport economics from the University of Leeds’ Institute for Transport Studies. Anita Mauchan, Director, Steer Davies Gleave Anita is a transport planner specializing in demand forecasting for major transport-infrastructure projects, including roads, bridges, tunnels, railways, ports and tram systems. Over the past 25 years, she has provided demand and revenue advice to governments, bidders, lenders, concessionaires and international finance Institutions for a range of transport infrastructure projects around the world, with each project requiring different forecasting approaches, procurement structures and risk assessments. Her experience ranges from project feasibility to procurement, evaluation, project funding and post-construction monitoring and advice. She is currently a director of the Strategy and Economics team at Steer Davies Gleave, an international transport-planning consultancy firm. She previously worked at CH2M. Anita has recently advised the PPIAF team supporting the development of PPP projects and national government highway policy in developing countries. Anita holds an MSc in transport planning from the University of Leeds’ Institue for Transport Studies. Lauren Wilson, Operations Analyst, The World Bank (Global Infrastructure Facility) Lauren began her career at PPIAF in 2011 oversaw the facility’s Global Knowledge portfolio. Lauren was also PPIAF’s transport-sector analyst and provided support to the facility’s senior transport specialist on technical assistance activities in the sector. In 2016 Lauren moved to the GIF, where she advises on the preparation of infrastrucutre projects with private finance in the Middle East, North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa regions. Lauren holds an MA in economics and international relations from the University of St. Andrews and an MBA from Georgetown University’s McDonough School of Business. PPIAF | World Bank Group | Toll-Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk ›› 1 Abbreviations and Acronyms AADT . Annual average daily traffic BCR . Benefit-cost ratio BOT . Build operate transfer CFADS . Cash flow available for debt service DBFOM . Design, build, finance, operate and maintain DBOM . Design, build, operate and maintain DSCR . Debt-service cover ratio EIB . European Investment Bank EIRR . Economic internal rate of return F-IRR . Financial internal rate of return FTC . Flexible-term contract GDP . Gross domestic product IRR . Internal rate of return LGTT . Loan Guarantee Instrument for Trans-European Transport Network Projects LLCR . Loan life (or concession life) cover ratio MRG . Minimum revenue guarantees NPV . Net present value PPIAF . Public-Private Infrastructure Advisory Facility PPP . Public-private partnership PV . Present value QRA . Quantitative risk assessment RP . Revealed preference SP . Stated preference SPV . Special-purpose vehicle TIFIA . Transportation Infrastructure Finance and Innovation Act 2 ‹‹ Toll-Road PPPs: Identifying, Mitigating and Managing Traffic Risk | PPIAF | World Bank Group Acknowledgements Support for this publication was provided by PPIAF and the Global Infrastructure Facility (GIF). PPIAF, a multi-donor trust fund
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