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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS August 1940 Monthly Business Indicators, 1936-40

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SURVEY of CURRENT BUSINESS August 1940 Monthly Business Indicators, 1936-40 AUGUST 1940 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSIN UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCH BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCSl WASHINGTON VOLUME 20 NUMBER 8 UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE HARRY L. HOPKINS, Secretary BUREAU OF FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC COMMERCE JAMES W. YOUNG, Director SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS A publication of the DIVISION OF BUSINESS REVIEW M. JOSEPH MEEHAN, Chief MILTON GILBERT, Editor Volume 20 AUGUST 1940 Number 8 CONTENTS Page CHARTS—Continued The business situation. , . 3 Page Production continues to rise Figure 5.—Value of exports of United States merchandise, 1938-40.. 8 New orders and Inventories. , 3 Foreign trade in June 5 Figure 6.—-Index of dollar sales of variety chain stores l!) Revision of seasonally adjusted index of variety-store sales. 9 STATISTICAL DATA New Federal Preserve index of industrial production 11 New or revised series: Table 30.—-Index of dollar sales of variety chain stores, unadjusted CHARTS and adjusted, 1929-40 10 r Table 31.—Indexes of industrial production, unadjusted and Figure l.-—Monthh business indicators, 1936-40 adjusted, 1919-40 , 11-17 Figure 2.—Indexes of total freight car loadings, adjusted, 1936-4?). Table 32.«—Wholesale prices, chemicals and allied products 18 Figure 3.—Weekly spot commodity price indexes, 1939-40 Figure 4.—Indexes of value of exports of merchandise (including re- Monthly Business Statistics 19 exports) and of general imports, unadjusted, 1936-40... , General Index , Inside back cover Subscription price of the monthly and weekly issues of the SURVEV OF CURRENT BUSINESS $2 a year. Single-copy price: Monthly, 15 cents; weekly, 5 cents. Foreign subscriptions, 33.50. Price of the 1938 Supplement is 40 cents. Make remittances only to Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D. C. 24S327—10 1 l SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS August 1940 Monthly Business Indicators, 1936-40 INCOME PAYMENTS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION *• IOO 140 (VOLUME, 1923 - 25 = IOO) 120 A j ! 1 \ 100 \ 1 J \ 80 \ i | 60 ,, ! 1 1 M 1 1 ! 1 II ! 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 CASH INCOME FROM FARM MARKETINGS * NEW PASSENGER CAR SALES IUO (1924- 29 = 100) 200 (1929-31 = IOO) 90 150 TIT 80 / Ah 100 r rv |\ \ 70 \ 50 u V 60 IM.lllll I i I i i 11! 11 : i ! i i !MI! II 1 1 ^ 1 ! 1 j IJI .' 1 M ! ! i I! ' LLJ 1J 1 1 Liii 1 I ! 1 1 1 i i 1 II 1 1 1 1 1 ! 1 11 I ! 1 Ml |IM II . 1936 1937 1938 1939 194-0 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 FACTORY EMPLOYMENT AND PAYROLLS DEPARTMENT STORE SALES 140 I \0 (1923 ~ 25 = 100) IOO FACTORY EMPLOYMENT (ADJUSTED) 90 A, 80 FACTORY PAYROLLS'-*1 ¥ (UNADJUSTED) 60 70 1 I 1 ! 1 I 1 1 M ) Ii 1 I 1 i 1 M M| II! 1 ! 1 ! M j ,,, , ,| 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1936 1937 1938 1939 194-0 COTTON CONSUMPTION PRICES OF 350 INDUSTRIAL STOCKS 175 (1923-25 =-100) 160 (1926 = 100) 150 140 'V, 125 V !20 J A/ J \ 100 100 XT' \ [ 75 1 1 M 1 1 1 11 1 11 11111 1 1 111• Ml inn Mill 1 II 1 I1IIII1II11 1 80 ii i ii 1 i ii i inmlnii. M 1 1 1 1 1 II 1 1 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 * ADJUSTED FOR SEASONAL VARIATIONS DO. • Figure 1. August 1940 SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS The Business Situation USINESS in general continued to improve in July, direction in July, in consequence of the early closing of B after allowance for customary seasonal movements. the model year. Since March, in fact, during which The gain during the month was moderate com- time the automobile industry pushed output to near- pared with the sharp upswing in June but at the end record levels, this distortion has been in evidence. of July overall activity was higher than at the end of Production for the model year is estimated at about June. The business situation is well supported at this 4.2 million vehicles against 3.4 million of the 1939 time by a large volume of unfilled orders and active models, for a very favorable comparison with 1929 and consumer purchasing. Although inventories are not 1937 when assemblies reached 5.3 million and 4.9 mil- much below the peak to which they were pushed in lion, respectively. With 1940 schedules virtually com- March by last fall's buying wave, there is no further pleted by August 1, the prospects were that 1941 cars accumulation of significant magnitude taking place in would be in production without extended delay. total holdings at present. The persistent softening of Consequently, the automobile industry in the near sensitive commodity prices and the failure of security future will provide a substantial support to the general prices to respond to rising business volumes reflect un- certainty with regard to the international political and 120 (1923- 25 = IOO) military situation rather than any fundamental weak- ness in domestic economic conditions. IOO Production Continues to Rise. For July as a whole there was a further rise in indus- 80 trial production adjusted for the seasonal, extending the gain of the 2 previous months. Whether there 60 — was some actual decline in output is uncertain, but if so it was not so large as is usual in July. Omitting 40 • the automobile industry, which is changing to new 1936 1937 1938 1939 1940 Figure 2.—Indexes of Total Freight Car Loadings. (With Adjustments for models unusually early this year, there was certainly Seasonal Variation, 1936-40.) a contraseasonal rise in output from June to July. Marked fluctuations occurred in individual industries level of production and give an upward lift to business during the month, but it is doubtful whether there indexes. was an intra-month recession as indicated by some of The leveling off in business activity during July was the weekly business indexes. These fluctuations can to be noted in the moderate decline in freight car- in most part be traced to disturbances occasioned by loadings from the year's peak in the last week in the Independence Day holiday and the early termina- June. On a daily average basis total loadings in tion of the automobile model year. What did take July were only fractionally above the month before. place in July was a leveling off in the rate of increase Ore traffic bettered the extraordinary May-June from the previous month. movement. The light grain shipments during the The pace of the current upward movement in produc- early weeks of June were succeeded by 6 weeks of tion is to be found in the 3-month rise in steel-ingot loadings heavier than the usual seasonal. Coal and production. Though the increase in the utilization of coke movements also showed contraseasonal gains steel capacity has not been so rapid as the 30-point during July as in June. Miscellaneous freight failed advance of last September and October, it is significant to improve seasonally, but 1. c. 1. shipping made a that the present development—from 60 percent of better showing than in June. On the other hand,, capacity in April to about 84 percent in July—has not electric power output in July did better than maintain been accompanied by so substantial a measure of inven- the June growth and at the end of the month approached tory accumulation as in the earlier period. At the end the all-time high of last December for the best July on of July steel-ingot production was on the upgrade record. following the hesitation shown by producers to advance The new Federal Eeserve index of industrial produc- the rate in the last weeks of June and the beginning of tion, presented on pp. 11-17, of this issue, shows that July. The month closed with production above 90 the fluctuation in output during the first half of 1940 percent of capacity for the highest rate since mid- was much less violent than that indicated by the old December. index. From a peak of 126 (1935-39=100) in Decem- Of the durable manufactures automobiles alone ber output fell only 15 points by April in contrast to exerted a marked statistical influence in a downward a decline of 26 points for the old index during the same SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS August 1940 period. By June the new index rose to 121, only 2 1939 in the new index. The outstanding exception to points under the level for the first month of this year. the slower upward movement was the paper industry, The relation of June to January would be a little operating above 90 percent of production since late less favorable in terms of the old index. April. Rubber consumption was at relatively high New Federal Reserve Indexes of Industrial Production, levels, having declined less than most nondurables, but Seasonally Adjusted an upward movement in this field was not indicated in June. Activity at cotton mills in June rose moder- June Decem- June 1939 ber 1939 1940 ately for the second monthly gain to exceed cotton consumption in June 1939, and preliminary data indi- Industrial production, totaL.. 102 126 v 121 Durable manufactures 97 140 v 131 cate that mill consumption in July was appreciably Steel ingots 94 167 154 Machinery 98 125 p 128 higher. Following a severe decline in the early spring Automobiles 86 121 106 Aircraft 160 239 P316 months, wool textile production showed some improve- Shipbuilding 126 144 P 171 Lumber 101 122 110 ment in May with little change in June, but compared Plate glass 73 124 80 unfavorably with last November and December.
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