Mathematical Principles for a Theoretical Model of Electoral Behavior from an Expanded Theory of Practice
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Mathematical Principles for a Theoretical Model of Electoral Behavior from an Expanded Theory of Practice Author: Arturo de Nieves Gutiérrez de Rubalcava Doctoral Thesis/ Year 2015 UNIVERSIDADE DA CORUÑA Mathematical Principles for a Theoretical Model of Electoral Behavior from an Expanded Theory of Practice PhD Candidate: Arturo de Nieves Gutiérrez de Rubalcava UDC Doctoral Thesis/ Year 2015 Director: Dr Manuel García Docampo Department of Sociology and Political Science Universidade da Coruña 2 Dr Manuel García Docampo Arturo de Nieves Gutiérrez de Rubalcava Director PhD Candidate 3 Index of Contents Acknowledgements .................................................................................................... 17 Abstract (English)..………………………………………………….……………………..21 Abstract (Galician)……………………………………………………...………….………22 Abstract (Spanish)…………………….…………………...………………………………23 Extended abstract (Spanish)…………………………...……………………………...24 I. Establishing the phenomenon ............................................................... 39 1 Theory and research in Sociology ........................................................ 39 1.1 Some difficulties affecting sociological research ................................ 40 1.2 How to proceed? ............................................................................................... 51 1.3 A comparative macrosociological analysis of electoral behavior .............................................................................................. 57 1.3.1 Some brief commentaries on the economic unevenness and the national question in Spain ............................................................... 60 1.3.1.1 Economic unevenness………………………………………………...60 1.3.1.2 The national question…………………………………………………67 2 Spatial analysis of the electoral behavior in Spain ........................ 71 2.1 Aggregation of parties and coalitions and its location in the political space ............................................................................................................ 72 2.2 The territorialization of the vote in Spain ............................................. 77 2.2.1 The territorialization for the left/right axis .................................. 79 2.2.2 The territorialization for the peripheral nationalist axis ........ 91 2.2.3 The territorialization of the abstention .......................................... 94 2.3 Habitat analysis of the electoral behavior in Spain ........................... 98 2.4 Conclusions ....................................................................................................... 102 4 II. Explaining the phenomenon ............................................................. 106 3 On the shoulders of giants ................................................................... 106 3.1 Three traditions in the study of electoral behaviour ...................... 106 3.1.1 The Columbia model ............................................................................. 110 3.1.2 The Michigan model .............................................................................. 113 3.1.3 The Rochester model ............................................................................ 115 3.1.4 The Ecological model ............................................................................ 116 3.2 Some commentaries on the models ..................................................... 120 3.2.1 Some methodological comments on the measurement of class voting in Spain .................................................................................... 120 3.2.1.1 Still European pre-capitalist societies?.................................123 3.2.1.2 Pre-capitalist electoral profile……...…………………………...128 3.2.1.3 Discussion…….…………..…………………………...………………...132 3.2.2 Some methodological comments on the measurement of the nationalist cleavage in Spain ............................................................ 136 3.2.2.1 Preliminary considerations…………………………………….…139 3.2.2.2 Objectives………………………………………………………………...141 3.2.2.3 Analytical implications and hypothesis……..….……………147 3.2.2.4 Descriptive analysis…………………………………………...……..154 3.2.2.5 Some clarifications on the notion of dual identity………………………...………………………………………………….….157 3.2.2.6 Qualitative analysis of the press………...……………………...165 3.2.2.6.1 Strong statewide nationalistic ACs……..…….……167 3.2.2.6.2 Strong sub-state nationalistic ACs......……………..174 3.2.2.6.3 Weakly nationalized ACs…………………......……..…180 5 3.2.2.6.4 Conclusions of the qualitative analysis of the press…………………………………………………………………….……189 3.2.2.7 Quantitative testing…………...……………………………………..191 3.2.2.8 Discussion……………………...………………………………...……...196 4. Towards a new theoretical model of electoral behavior ...................................................................................... 199 4.1 Three theoretical models of electoral behavior? ............................. 200 4.2 A new theory of electoral behavior ........................................................ 208 4.2.1 From alienation to habitus ................................................................. 208 4.2.1.1 Putting Bourdieu's schema to work: The case of language………………………………..……………………………………..…..…235 4.2.2 Expanding Bourdieu: towards a law of capital attraction ........................................................................................... 238 4.2.2.1 Far Beyond Bourdieu: Formalization and Expansion of the Theory of Practice………………………………242 4.2.2.1.2 Gauss' Theorem…...……………………………………….251 4.2.3 Why people vote the way we do? .................................................... 259 5. Hypothesis derived from the model and testing…………………..287 5.1 Description of the focus groups………………………………………289 5.2 Analysis of the focus groups…………………………………………...292 6. A brief conclusion .................................................................................. 308 References .................................................................................................... 314 ANNEXES...……………………………………………...………………………………..373 6 Index of Tables Table I. Gini index at disposable income, post taxes and transfers for the OECD countries. Mean values from the available data over the period 1974-2011……………….............................................……………………62 Table II. Income distribution among the population of Lorenzland…………………............……………………………………………64 Table III. Index of peripheral nationalism for Spain, Catalonia and the Basque Country………………...............……………………………….70 Table IV. Vote in Spanish general elections and habitat…………………………………......98 Table V. Deviations of each habitat from the arithmetic mean of the Spanish total ………………………………………………………………………99 Table VI. Deviations of each habitat relative to the average of the Spanish total for those municipalities within ‘high-high’ spatial clusters…………………………………........………………...100 Table VII. Deviations of each habitat relative to the average of the Spanish total for those municipalities within ‘high-high’ spatial clusters……………....…………………..101 Table VIII. Deviations of each habitat for the abstention 7 over the Spanish total…………………………………………………………………………..102 Table IX. Deviations of each habitat for the abstention over the ‘high-high’ spatial clusters.............................................................................102 Table X. Classification of the headlines published in the front page of the main newspapers in those ACs within A.1 sub-set………………..173 Table XI. Classification of the headlines published in the front page of the main newspapers in those ACs within B.2 sub-set………………..180 Table XII. Classification of the headlines published in the front page of the main newspapers in those ACs within A.2 sub-set……….185 Table XIII. Classification of the headlines published in the front page of the main newspapers in those ACs within B.1 sub-set……….188 Table XIV. Main type of messages published in the media for each group of ACs................................................................................................................191 Table XV. Binary logit estimates on the Absence Vs. Presence of Spanish National Identification (B.2 to A.2). Data from the Autonomic Barometer III, 2012 (CIS’ study 2,956) ………………….………………………194 Table XVI. Binary logit estimates on the Absence Vs. Presence of Spanish National Identification (A.2 to A.1). Data from the Autonomic Barometer III, 2012 (CIS’ study 2,956) ………………….………………………195 8 Table XVII. Ideological Identification and Occupation in Spain………………….……...275 Table XVIII. Percentual presence of voting rationales for each focus group……….300 9 Index of Figures Figure 1. Lorenz curve of Lorenzland……………………...……...…………………………………65 Figure 2. Delimitation of areas within the Lorenz Curve of Lorenzland……....………66 Figure 3. Ideological location of the main Spanish political parties included in CIS' time series for both axes……………………………………………….76 Figure 4. Moran’s scatter plot for the variable ‘left-wing vote’ (LV)…………………….81 Figure 5. Box plot for the variable ‘left-wing vote’ (LV)………………………………………81 Figure 6. LISA cluster map for the variable ‘voting for left-wing parties or coalitions’ (LV)…………………………………………………………………………………86 Figure 7. Moran’s scatter plot for the variable ‘right-wing vote’ (RV)…………………89 Figure 8. Box plot for variable ‘right-wing vote’ (RV)…………………………………………89 Figure 9. LISA cluster map for the variable ‘voting for right-wing parties or coalitions’ (RV)………………………………………………………………..90 Figure 10. Moran’s scatter plot for the variable ‘peripheral nationalist vote’ (NAC)……………………………………………………………………92