The Widening Gyre: Foreign and Domestic National Security Concerns of the Russian Federation

THE WIDENING GYRE: FOREIGN AND DOMESTIC NATIONAL SECURITY CONCERNS OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION

by Boris Mikhail Zilberman

A thesis submitted to Johns Hopkins University in conformity with the requirements for the degree of Master of Arts in Global Security Studies

Baltimore, Maryland December 2014

This thesis focuses on key strategic focal points within Russia’s geopolitical, domestic, and economic realms to better understand Russia’s threat perception, strengths, and weaknesses at home and abroad. By doing so this thesis will contribute to the discourse over Russia’s force projection, long-term demographic trends and their potential ramifications, and Russia’s economic future and stability. As a geopolitical power player, understanding Russia’s national security concerns is critical to mitigating both economic and military conflict and regional strife.

First, this thesis will analyze Russia’s naval resurgence and its trade, naval, and geopolitical relationship with two geopolitically vital areas to Russia’s national interests.

This thesis concludes that Russia’s naval posture is less aggressive in regions where its geopolitical relations are largely based on non-military commerce and more aggressive where the relationship is based more heavily on military commerce. Second, this thesis analyzes the insurgency in the Caucasus, which has largely been a localized threat and not one that has undermined broader Russian national stability. However, as demographics change, will Russia’s behavior towards this localized insurgency and its broader Muslim population incite a broader Islamic awakening? This thesis concludes that this is unlikely to happen in the short to medium-term but there exists a possibility in the long-term which is largely dependent on how Russian leadership would deal with a

Muslim majority nation. Thirdly, this thesis analyzes Russia’s energy based economic model and whether or not Russia will need to shift its oil and gas extraction over the next thirty years. As traditional areas of oil and gas extraction diminish in output, Russia may be unable to properly develop its Arctic resources to make-up for declining extraction in

ii other regions of the country. The economic impact of dwindling government revenues could destabilize a ruling elite closely tied to the current economic model which is overly reliant on energy export revenues.

(Thesis advisors/readers: Dr. Mark Stout, Dr. Sarah O’Byrne, Christine Parthemore)

iii Acknowledgements

This thesis would not be possible without the constant support of my mother and father as well as my entire family. Without the sacrifices my family made in moving from the Soviet Union to the United States in 1990 this endeavor, much like anything else I have been able to accomplish, would not have occurred. I would also like to acknowledge my professors, professional colleagues, thesis advisors, and thesis reviewers who have provided the intellectual framework within which I have explored the issues herein.

It is important that I specifically acknowledge my grandmother, Vera

Chernyakov, who passed away on November 29, 2014 as this thesis was being completed. She was born in Leningrad (now St. Petersburg) in August of 1927. In 1950, she fell in love with my grandfather Mark - who served in the Soviet Navy for over 30 years. They were married for 64 years. She dreamed of becoming a doctor and despite living through the ravages and hardships of World War II (including the Siege of

Leningrad), she became a physician and practiced medicine for 35 years. She will be remembered as a woman with a smile on her face and eternal optimism. Her perseverance and fighting spirit will forever be a shining light for me.

I would also like to acknowledge my fiancé and love of my