FIJI METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE Fiji Sugar Cane Rainfall Private Mail Bag (NAP0351) Nadi Airport, Fiji Ph: +679 6724888, Fax: +679 6720430 Outlook from February 2017 Email:
[email protected] See online version at http://www.met.gov.fj Planting Season Volume: 13 Issue: 1 January 25, 2017 Introduction This outlook contains the rainfall projections for the three-month period beginning February 2017, and the following three months (May to July 2017), for the Fiji sugar cane “belt”. The chances of normal to above normal predictions are given as probabilities and presented in tables on pages 2 to 4. The Fiji Meteorological Service (FMS) currently uses a statistical climate prediction model known as the Seasonal Climate Outlook for Pacific Island Countries (SCOPIC) for seasonal rain- fall guidance. For the Fiji region, the model uses recent monthly anomalies of sea surface temperature from parts of the Pacific Ocean (central - eastern equatorial Pacific regions) as predictors of Fiji’s rainfall. Summary Statement The tropical Pacific continues to show neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions, though cloud- iness and rainfall in the southwest Pacific are displaying a weak La Niña like characteristics; It is likely that neutral ENSO conditions (i.e. neither El Niño nor La Niña) will persist through most of the first half of 2017; Normal to above normal rainfall has been received over the sugarcane growing areas in the last three months (October to December 2016); Normal or above normal rainfall is predicted over the sugarcane growing areas through both the February to April and the May to July 2017 periods.