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TM 4.1.3 TAZ Level Demographic and Socioeconomic Forecasts, Years

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TM 4.1.3 TAZ Level Demographic and Socioeconomic Forecasts, Years Demographic and Socioeconomic Forecasting Technical Memorandum Task 4.1.3 TAZ Level Demographic and Socioeconomic Forecasts, 2002-2030 Submitted by: Urbanomics August 17, 2005 N E W Y O R K M E T R O P O L I T A N T R A N S P O R T A T I O N C O U N C I L D E M O G R A P H I C A N D S O C I O E C O N O M I C F O R E C A S T I N G T E C H N I C A L M E M O R A N D U M NO. 4.1.3 TAZ LEVEL DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC FORECASTS, 2002- 2030 This study is funded by a matching grant from the Federal Highway Administration, under NYSDOT PIN PT 1949911. PRIME CONSULTANT: URBANOMICS 115 FIFTH AVENUE 3RD FLOOR NEW YORK, NEW YORK 10003 The preparation of this report was financed in part through funds from the Federal Highway Administration and FTA. This document is disseminated under the sponsorship of the U.S. Department of Transportation in the interest of information exchange. The contents of this report reflect the views of the author who is responsible for the facts and the accuracy of the data presented herein. The contents do not necessarily reflect the official views or policies of the Federal Highway Administration, FTA, nor of the New York Metropolitan Transportation Council. This report does not constitute a standard, specification or regulation. T E C H N I C A L M E M O R A N D U M NO. 4.1.3 COUNTY LEVEL DEMOGRAPHIC AND SOCIOECONOMIC FORECASTS, 2002-2030 TABLE OF CONTENTS 1.1 Introduction...............................................................................................................1 1.2 Data Sources............................................................................................................2 1.3 Overview...................................................................................................................2 1.4 Methodology for Variables by Place of Residence ...................................................3 1.4.1 Generic Methodology......................................................................................3 1.4.2 Method for Nassau, Suffolk and Dutchess Counties.......................................5 1.4.3 Method for New York City Boroughs...............................................................5 1.4.4 Method for Westchester County .....................................................................6 1.4.5 Method for New Jersey Counties....................................................................6 1.5 Methodology for Variables by Place of Work............................................................6 1.6 Methodology for Household Income and Worker Earnings ......................................8 1.7 Conversion to Transportation Analysis Zones ..........................................................8 FIGURES 1. Generic Framework for County-to-Tract/MCD Distribution of Residence-Related Variables 2. Framework for Residence-Based Variables: Nassau, Suffolk and Dutchess Counties 3. Household Population Projection Methodology: New York City Boroughs 4. Generic Framework for County-to-Tract/MCD Distribution of Workplace-Related Variables TABLES 1. PFAC-Adopted County Population and Employment Forecasts Used in TAZ-Level Forecasting 2. Summary of Subcounty Distribution Geographies, Development Data & Exogenous Forecast Availability 3. Census 2000 Input Factors and Source Tables MAP 1. Thirty-One County New York Metropolitan Region APPENDICES A. Long Island Regional Planning Board Municipal Population Forecasts B. Poughkeepsie-Dutchess Transportation Council Municipal Population Forecasts for Dutchess County C. North Jersey Transportation Planning Authority Forecasts of Population, Households and Employment for New Jersey Municipalities D. New York City Department of City Planning Major Development Projects and Rezoning Initiatives List Technical Memorandum No.4.1.3 TAZ Level Demographic and Socioeconomic Forecasts, 2002-2030 1.1 INTRODUCTION This memorandum presents the methodology used to distribute county-level socioeconomic and demographic (SED) forecasts to the Transportation Analysis Zone (TAZ) level. County level SED forecasts for population and employment were adopted by PFAC at their September 23, 2004 meeting. The methodology used for this task is an enhancement of the simplified default methodology developed under Task 18.2.1 to distribute county-level SED projections in lieu of the Land Use Model. Under this method, county-level projections are first distributed to lower Census geographies (Minor Civil Divisions or Census Tracts) and then to TAZs. Initially designed as a simple spreadsheet method, it has been reimplemented in a Microsoft Access relational database to streamline the integration of the more numerous data sources required for the enhanced version, as discussed below. The default method is based on a simple proportional distribution of socioeconomic forecasts from larger to smaller geographic units. For the current task, the highest-level geographic units are counties. The lowest-level units are either Minor Civil Divisions (MCDs) or Census Tracts, depending on the county in question.1 The distribution is carried out using a base matrix of proportional shares. The latter is calculated from Census 2000 or other data sources. In the original default distribution undertaken in Task 18.2.1, an estimate of vacant land available for development was used as a constraint at the small area level (Tract or MCD). For the current task such a land availability constraint was not used, and instead an attempt was made to integrate external data sources on expected locations and/or patterns of growth provided by NYMTC’s partner agencies. In some cases, specific information was available about the expected development trends of particular Tracts/MCDs. In these cases, projections for these areas were calculated independently based on this information. This amount was then deducted from the county control totals and the latter, reduced total was distributed proportionately to the remaining Tracts/MCDs for which no independent information was available. 1 Essex County in New Jersey required a combination of Tract-level distribution, for the City of Newark, and MCD-level distribution for all other areas. Technical Memorandum 4.1.3 In other cases, jurisdictions had already undertaken subcounty forecasts and an effort was made to reflect the results of these forecasts in the Tract/MCD forecasts developed for this task. The independent MCD forecasts were used as the basis for county-to- MCD distribution matrices that were applied to PFAC-adopted county controls. Where necessary the resulting MCD projections were then further distributed to Census Tracts. County-level controls were available for the following variables by place of residence: • Total Population • Household Population • Group Quarters Population • Number of Households • Employed Labor Force Other residence-based variables were also projected for which no county-level controls were forecasted. In this case, projections were made at the Tract/MCD level and county forecasts represent the sum of these lower-level geographic units. These variables include: • K-12 Enrollment • University Enrollment In addition to the residence-related demographic variables described above, forecasts were also made for several employment-related variables by workplace. The method used to forecast these variables differs from those for the residence-based variables due to differences in the data sources and concepts involved, as discussed below. These employment-related variables include: • Total Employment • Office Employment • Retail Employment In addition, some variables were required as base-year inputs to the BPM, but not as projections. These include: • Aggregate Household Income by Place of Residence • Aggregate Earnings by Place of Work 1.2 DATA SOURCES County-level controls are based on the forecasts adopted by PFAC at their September 23, 2004 meeting. The controls are presented in Table 1. The complete PFAC-adopted TM 4.1.3 - 2 Technical Memorandum 4.1.3 forecast series is presented in Technical Memorandum 4.1.2, which also includes a further discussion of the forecasts and the methodologies used to develop them. Several independent forecast series were used for various counties within the NYMTC forecast area. These are summarized in Table 2. The forecasts themselves are presented in Appendices A through C. Various Census 2000 data tables were used to develop base-year distribution matrices, as summarized in Table 3. Official Census post-2000 estimates were adopted for the years available.2 Enrollment projections depend on ratios established in prior TAZ projections prepared by Parsons Brinckerhoff. 1.3 OVERVIEW Work was performed for 28 counties within five subregions, as follows: • New York City: Bronx, Kings, New York, Queens and Richmond Counties • Long Island: Nassau and Suffolk Counties • Mid-Hudson: Dutchess, Orange, Putnam, Rockland and Westchester Counties • New Jersey: Bergen, Essex, Hudson, Hunterdon, Mercer, Middlesex, Monmouth, Morris, Ocean, Passaic, Somerset, Sussex, Union and Warren Counties • Connecticut Subregion: Fairfield and New Haven Counties Table 2 summarizes work as performed for different areas. As the table shows, counties vary by the geographic level to which variables were distributed (Census Tract or Minor Civil Division), as well as by the availability of exogenous subcounty forecasts and information on major developments. These factors affect the specific methodology developed for any given area. SED variables can be divided between residence-based and workplace-based.
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